Monday Market Analysis and SignalsGold is bullish in a strong bullish trend, and the technical structure of the bullish trend remains intact. Gold prices hit a new record high in the Asian session. The news of the geopolitical situation in the fundamental market stimulated the continued rise of gold and silver risk aversion. The intraday correction is mainly low and long, relying on the last correction low of 2713 on Friday to arrange more.
Gold Middle East conflict continues to escalate, gold continues to set new highs in risk aversion, geopolitical risk aversion has added new factors, risk aversion sentiment has risen again, and gold will continue to rise in a wave after the decline. Gold bulls are in high spirits and are getting more and more crazy. After the last madness, we must pay attention to the profit of bulls. Now don't chase gold easily after it has risen quickly.
Gold has set new highs in 1 hour, and the important turning point support below gold is 2696, and the moving average support has also moved up to around 2713. The support below is strong. Continue to buy on dips above 2713, and wait for a fall back to around 2713. Gold risk aversion will rise again. In the case of risk aversion, gold will have the last madness!
Trading strategy:
Wait for a pullback to go long near the support of 2713. Pay attention to the callback near 2750 above
Xauusd(w)
Gold seems to be preparing for a correction from its record highThe US dollar (USD) maintains an adjustment regime, reflecting a decline in US Treasury yields. Chinese stocks have rebounded after the People's Bank of China (PBOC) lowered the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) from 3.35% to 3.10%.
Although the market's initial reaction was not strong, there are still expectations for further stimulus measures from China. This optimism, combined with ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran, has supported gold prices.
Personal opinion:
The US dollar's adjustment regime reflects economic volatility. The PBOC's interest rate cut aims to boost China's growth, but the market's weak reaction shows caution due to geopolitical tensions, like those between Israel and Iran. This situation compels investors to tread carefully, especially with gold prices supported by these uncertainties.
Pay attention to the price range:
Buy Zone: 2704 - 2702
SL: 2697
Buy Scalp: 2719 - 2717
SL: 2712
Sell Zone: 2748 - 2750
SL: 2755
Gold trading strategy today!Gold saw a slight uptick during the early Asian trading session, continuing its upward trend. The precious metal has been bolstered by global monetary easing policies, as noted by Tito Iakopa, Chief Trading Officer at FlowCommunity. On Monday, China's commercial banks slashed benchmark lending rates, following the European Central Bank’s rate cut last week. Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have also heightened gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset amidst the ongoing conflict with no clear resolution in sight.
Trading Recommendations Around Key Price Levels:
SELL XAUUSD at 2740-2742
Stop Loss: 2746
Take Profit 1: 2735
Take Profit 2: 2730
Take Profit 3: 2725
BUY XAUUSD at 2712-2714
Stop Loss: 2708
Take Profit 1: 2719
Take Profit 2: 2724
Take Profit 3: 2730
Reminder: Always set your Take Profit (TP) and Stop Loss (SL) to ensure optimal trading performance.
Gold Price AnalysisGold prices today continue their strong upward momentum, with bullish signals showing no sign of slowing down. The metal is currently hovering around $2,728, marking an increase of over 70 pips since the start of the trading session.
The primary reasons driving this sharp rise in gold prices stem from global gold surpassing the $2,700 per ounce mark last weekend. This surge has been fueled by escalating tensions in the Middle East, the upcoming U.S. presidential election, and expectations of further monetary policy easing. These factors have ignited the gold market, with many expecting prices to climb even higher in the near future.
Forecast-wise: A recent Kitco News survey reveals a widespread sense of optimism about gold's upward prospects. The majority of experts (94%) predict further price increases, while only one analyst (6%) sees no significant changes.
Similarly, a large portion of retail traders (72%) also believe that gold will continue to rise, compared to a smaller group (17%) expecting a price decline.
On the technical analysis side: This uptrend follows the principles of Dow Theory, and from a Fibonacci perspective, the rally is targeting the first take-profit level at 1.618, which aligns with the $2,925 region.
What do you think? Where do you see gold heading in the coming days?
Expectations for Further Gains Amid Lower Interest RatesGold prices are currently in an uptrend and have broken through the $2,730 resistance level, heading higher. The technical chart shows that the price is continuing to maintain its upward momentum within the price channel, with the 34-day EMA and 89-day EMA supporting below. However, after hitting $2,740/ounce, the price has corrected to $2,720 due to a stronger USD and profit-taking.
News from China about the PBoC cutting interest rates is an important factor driving the gold market. Meanwhile, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates in November, creating expectations that gold prices will continue to rise in the long term, although there may still be short-term corrections when major central banks cut interest rates.
XAUUSD potential move!Hi traders, XAUUSD is moving in very bullish movement because of the what happened in middle east worrying about escalation!
We are seeing this might move gold upwards!
We also need to be careful with the macro condition, easing the escalation might trigger XAUUSD reserval movement
Gold out lookOANDA:XAUUSD the drop was a honey trap 🪤 gold is always in buy trend
when it dropped it has taken support on 1H 50 SMA and after that its moving above that i am expecting 2750++ today the reason expecting 2750 is fibonachi extension has 1.786 level over that price other confluence being Bullish is because its in bull trend from Monthly to weekly to daily to H4 to H1 and lower TF's
XAUUSD is about to reach 2800, trading strategyIn the first trading day of the week, the Asian session for XAUUSD continued its upward momentum, with prices approaching $2733, setting a new historical high. However, by the end of the Asian session, gold prices retreated from these elevated levels.
Fundamental Analysis: Despite the dollar remaining close to its highest level since early August, uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential election and expectations of Israeli retaliation against Iran have fueled demand for safe-haven assets. The recent surge in gold prices has occurred amid a strengthening dollar and rising U.S. interest rates, with escalating tensions in the Middle East. The upcoming BRICS summit highlights the continued demand for gold among central banks, indicating a bullish trend from a fundamental perspective.
Technical Analysis: Currently, there are no significant resistance levels for gold's upward trend, especially after breaching new highs and surpassing previous resistance levels. Market sentiment remains increasingly bullish. From the 4-hour chart of gold, the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) continues to provide support. However, historical trends suggest that the current upward movement may trigger some profit-taking, potentially forcing gold prices into a short-term correction before resuming the upward trajectory.
Therefore, it is recommended for day traders to consider going long on XAUUSD during any pullbacks. For detailed entry points for long positions, please feel free to contact me, and I will provide you with professional analysis and guidance.
XAUUSD hit the MA50 (1h). New bullish wave starting.Gold hit today its MA50 (1h) for the first time since October 15th.
This is an attempt to form the new Higher Low inside the short term Channel Up.
The last correction towards the bottom was on a -1.08% decline. The price is close to that currently.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 2770 (top of Channel Up and +2.50% rise).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1h) hit the Support (1) level from exactly the last Higher Low on Oct 15th.
Please like, follow and comment!!
Notes:
Past trading plan:
Gold's Next Big Move: Analyzing the $2825 Strike and Insider ActLet me start with a disclaimer that I firmly believe in and adhere to: don’t flip the trend; leave that to those who are just here to play around and get their adrenaline fix while watching their accounts explode.
Now, let’s get down to business.
On August 5, 2024, when gold was languishing in a sideways market around $2400 on the CME, an insider option portfolio dubbed the "Call Butterfly" emerged, set to expire on February 25 of the following year. The central strike of this portfolio was chosen at $2825. Due to the nature of such an options portfolio, this specific price level will yield maximum profit at expiration.
To keep the readers engaged and prevent them from dozing off, let me add that the risk-reward ratio for this portfolio is already 1:4. The Insider can choose to close it, but they are under no obligation to do so and can comfortably watch the value of their portfolio rise as it approaches the $2825 mark based on the April futures—don’t confuse this with the spot price of XAU.
Clarifying the Price Dynamics
It's important to clarify that there is a difference between the spot market price, particularly XAU/USD, which forex traders are so accustomed to—thanks to its uninterrupted price movement due to the absence of futures expiration—and the futures price, which includes forward points. Currently, the price of Gold in April futures stands at $2784, just a hop away from the coveted insider portfolio price of $2825.
Why the Confidence in Insider Activity?
Several indicators suggest this is indeed an insider move:
Portfolio Volume: A whopping 9,000 contracts in a distant options series at a far-off strike can only be purchased by a major player, not any average retail trader.
Market Entry Timing : The entry point was during a sideways market, and the news backdrop was, to put it mildly, not in gold's favor.
Immediate Market Reaction: Almost immediately after entering the market, Gold began to climb, doing so with minimal pauses or significant corrections.
Why Bring This Up Now?
You might wonder why I’m highlighting actions that have already occurred, especially since the opportunity to profit from them has passed. The answer is clear: the insider knew when and in which direction to enter, and his exit will likely follow a predictable pattern, leaving traces in the CME reports. If the insider decides to exit, there will be justifiable reasons behind it, which we will only learn about long after the fact.
Starting today, I will actively monitor and analyze the daily reports on gold and specifically this portfolio. Practical experience and statistics suggest that this will provide excellent sentiment regarding the future of the precious metals market.
Good luck to everyone! Stay focused, stay disciplined, and stay committed to your goals.
Trading minute impulseOn the minute timeframe of XAUUSD at the moment we have the completion of the impulse formation. If the price continues to move in the direction of the impulse and the support zones do not allow it to overcome the base of the impulse, it may reach the targets 1 and 2. If the price fails to advance in the direction of the momentum and overcomes the support zone at the base of the momentum, it is very likely that the price will move sideways or against the direction of the momentum.
Sell Gold in 2740-2750 areaGold has risen to around 2740 driven by geopolitical risks. Obviously, gold is currently in a clear bullish trend, but the more it gets to this point, the more dangerous it is. Gold is now completely out of the normal range of rise. We can see that gold does not give a big chance of callback at all now, just to make more people chase long gold at a high level. But chasing long gold in this way can easily get trapped at the top.
As for the top area of this round of gold's rise, I expect it to be in the 2740-2750 area. So after gold touches this area, gold may fall back at any time. So in short-term trading, we can start shorting gold in batches in the 2740-2750 area.
So, bros, while you are immersed in the enthusiasm of going long on gold, I am now shorting gold in batches! Let's look forward to the next results!
GOLD 1H & 4H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Great start to the week with our 1H chart hitting two bullish targets 2730 and 2739 and one remaining at 2747, which will be further confirmed with ema5 lock above 2739.
1H CHART ROUTE MAP
This 4H chart had ema5 lock above 2715 opening 2737, which was also hit perfectly completing this setup. A PIPTASTIC start to the week!!!
We will now look for ema5 lock above 2737 to confirm the range above or failure to lock will follow with a rejection to test lower Goldturns for our reactional bounces.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2737 (EMA5 LOCK ABOVE 2715 WILL FURTHER CONFIRM THIS) - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2737 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2760
POTENTIALLY 2779
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2779 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2797
POTENTIALLY 2814
BEARISH TARGETS
2715
2693
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2693 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
2669
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2669 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2640
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Gold reaches historic high – $2700!Gold prices (XAUUSD) have reached a new all-time high, surpassing $2700 per ounce for the first time in history! The yellow metal, which has been rising for nine consecutive months, received fresh momentum in September from the Fed’s rate cut. Silver (XAGUSD) hasn’t been left behind either, and is currently trading at highs not seen since 2012. Prices are now around $32.30 per ounce, with silver’s growth this year increasing to 35%!
On November 21, 2023, we first alerted traders to the immense potential of precious metals. Less than a year has passed, and the returns since our forecast have reached 36%! After reaching yet another historical high, gold shows no signs of slowing down.
Factors driving precious metal price growth and expert opinions:
Major purchases by central banks: Gold prices are rising due to significant metal purchases by central banks, increasing its value.
Geopolitical instability: Escalating geopolitical instability, particularly in the Middle East, is driving demand for metals as safe-haven assets. Ongoing conflicts in various regions also contribute to rising gold and silver prices.
Expectations of a Fed rate cut: Investors are anticipating a possible interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve, making metals more attractive as investment tools. According to CME data, the probability of a rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting on November 7 stands at 92.3%, increasing the appeal of precious metals as investments.
Growth forecasts: Analysts predict that gold prices could reach $2850 per ounce by the end of the year and $3100 in the long term.
Projections by major financial institutions: ING and other financial organizations expect gold prices to peak in the fourth quarter of this year, with potential prices reaching up to $2900 per ounce by mid-2025.
Read quality analytics and profit with us!
GOLD Massive Short! SELL!
My dear followers,
This is my opinion on the GOLD next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 2720.0
Bias - Bearish
Safe Stop Loss - 2738.8
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 2688.3
About Used Indicators:
For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
After Record Highs, Is Gold Primed for a Short-Term Correction?Since Tuesday, after OANDA:XAUUSD completed a brief correction following the previous week’s rally, the price has surged approximately 1000 pips from its low to high.
During the Asian session last night, Gold hit yet another all-time high, though it’s now experiencing a minor pullback.
While the overall trend remains strongly bullish, a correction from this level is not out of the question.
The price could potentially retest the support zone formed by the previous all-time high around 2685-2690.
A confirmation of this correction would come if the price clears Friday’s close, and in that case, the recent ATH could act as short-term resistance.
Aggressive traders may look to take advantage of this correction, while swing traders might prefer to wait for the correction to complete and then rejoin the dominant uptrend at more favorable prices.
GOLD is fully supported with a low data trading weekDue to escalating tensions in the Middle East, uncertainty about the US election and expectations of looser monetary policy, OANDA:XAUUSD surged up and created new all-time record highs.
The market will still focus on increasing geopolitical tensions after Israel announced the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. Sinwar was the mastermind of the Hamas attack on southern Israel that sparked the year-long Gaza war.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel will continue to fight until all hostages captured by Hamas last year are released, while US President Joe Biden said it is time for the war to end.
During times of geopolitical and economic instability, investors often turn to gold as a safe haven asset. Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have prompted investors to seek safe-haven assets such as gold, due to risk aversion and concerns about instability in global markets.
On the monetary policy front, the European Central Bank could cut interest rates again in December. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders also see a 90.4% chance of a Fed rate cut. interest rate in November. Since gold does not yield interest, a rate cut could reduce the opportunity cost of investing in gold and increase its appeal.
This week, the People's Bank of China will announce its decision on interest rates. In September this year, the People's Bank of China kept the one-year prime lending rate (LPR) and five-year LPR unchanged at 3.35% and 3.85%, respectively. The larger LPR cut should be seen as an impetus to push gold prices even higher early next week.
S&P Global will release the preliminary value of the US Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October next Thursday. If the PMI unexpectedly falls below 50, indicating a contraction in private sector business activity, the short-term reaction could pressure the dollar and push up gold prices. On the other hand, a positive surprise could support the dollar.
The market reaction to the PMI data was not large enough to have a lasting impact on gold prices.
In general, this week will be a week with quite a bit of economic data, but with the current basic picture, gold will still be focused on due to escalating geopolitical developments. Readers also need to pay attention. add other threats of conflict from China - Taiwan, North Korea - South Korea,... in addition to the Middle East region, which already has too many potential risks.
Economic data to watch out for this week
Monday: IMF meeting begins
Tuesday: BRICS summit begins in Russia
Wednesday: Bank of Canada monetary policy meeting, US existing home sales
Thursday: Weekly unemployment claims; S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI Survey; US new home sales
Friday: US durable goods orders
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
As we have sent to readers throughout the publications, the gold price still has an overall bullish technical structure on the daily chart. Currently, gold closed above the 0.786% Fibonacci extension level and this is necessary for it to continue towards the next target of about 2,741 USD price point of the 1% Fibonacci level.
With the trend from the price channel in the short, medium and long term, gold is in an upward trend, combined with a strong upward momentum when the Relative Strength Index (RSI) points up with a significant slope. There is no sign of a break from the overbought level, a signal that the bullish momentum continues ahead.
However, the level of 2,741USD is also the closest current resistance for expectations of a short-term correction because it is also the confluence position of the edge on the price channel with the 1% Fibonacci extension level, correction price drops. Corrections are not considered trends, they only have a short-term impact.
Finally, the main technical outlook for gold prices is bullish, the notable points will be listed again as follows.
Support: 2,711 – 2,700 – 2,688USD
Resistance: 2,741USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2741 - 2739⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2745
→Take Profit 1 2634
↨
→Take Profit 2 2629
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2699 - 2701⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2695
→Take Profit 1 2706
↨
→Take Profit 2 2711
Potential Correction in XAU/USD After Recent Bull RunThe price of XAU/USD has experienced a significant upward rally from $2,605 on October 10, 2024, to $2,741 as of October 21, 2024. This impressive bull run has been largely driven by market euphoria surrounding expectations of interest rate cuts. Investors have flocked to safe-haven assets like gold in anticipation of a looser monetary policy, boosting its appeal and driving prices higher.
However, despite the ongoing bullish sentiment, there are signs that a potential correction may be on the horizon. When analyzing the recent movement using the Fibonacci retracement tool, the golden ratio (61.8%) suggests a key level of potential support around $2,695. This level could act as a corrective target for profit-taking or a temporary pullback before the next leg higher. A retreat to $2,695 would align with the natural ebb and flow of price action after an extended bullish phase, providing an opportunity for the market to consolidate gains before resuming its upward trend.
In the 15-minute chart, XAU/USD is currently forming a bearish rising wedge pattern, a technical signal often associated with potential downward movement. This formation indicates that the recent bullish momentum may be losing steam, suggesting a reversal could be imminent. The narrowing price range within the wedge hints at weakening buying pressure, setting the stage for a possible breakdown.
Given the recent extended rally, traders may begin to take profits in the near term, especially as the upward momentum in XAU/USD shows signs of exhaustion. This could lead to increased selling pressure, amplifying the likelihood of a short-term correction.
If the price breaks below the lower boundary of the wedge, it would confirm the bearish signal, increasing the chances of a move towards key support levels, such as the previously mentioned $2,695 level. Traders looking to capitalize on this setup should closely monitor the price action for a clear breakdown, as it could offer strategic entry points for short positions or profit-taking opportunities for long traders.
Traders and investors should keep a close eye on this level, as a confirmed correction could present buying opportunities for those seeking to enter the market at a lower price. Conversely, if the price holds above key support levels, the bull run could continue, especially if macroeconomic factors such as additional rate cuts or geopolitical tensions further fuel gold's allure.
In conclusion, while the recent rally has been impressive, prudence suggests being prepared for a potential correction, especially with $2,695 emerging as a key technical level to watch.
XAUUSD Potential breakout to a new ATHXAUUSD has broken and closed above the downward channel, signaling a strong bullish trend. As the price approaches the all-time high (ATH) level, there is potential for a pullback as traders may take profits or reassess positions. However, with the current bullish momentum, the market is likely to continue moving higher, even if a slight pullback occurs. If the price does pull back, looking for rejection signs near key support levels could confirm further upside. The target is the resistance zone at 2698
GOLD SHORT TO $2,540 (1H TF)As you've seen on the update, Gold has or is close to completion of Wave 5 (Wave V) of its bullish structure. Waiting for a minor shift in price action to indicate a bear trend is about to start, but I’m looking to short the market now.
⭕️5 Wave Bullish Move Complete.
⭕️Overbought Market Conditions.
⭕️DXY (Dollar Index) Bullish.