Gold: some relaxationThe implications of the US Presidential elections left its mark on the price of gold during the previous week. Namely, as President elect Trump was noting in a presidential campaign a potential to end conflicts in the Middle East, so the markets relaxed sentiment in expectations of further escalation of the ongoing geopolitical tensions. In line with USD strengthening, the price of gold had its largest weekly drop in the last five months. The lowest weekly level reached was $2.646, while the price of gold is ending the week at $2.683. It was a 1,8% weekly decline.
The RSI just started its course toward the oversold market side. The index finished the week at the level of 48, leaving some space for a further drop in order for a clear oversold market side to be reached. Despite the decline, moving averages of 50 and 200 days are still moving as two parallel lines with an uptrend, without an indication of a potential cross in the near term.
Markets will spend the week ahead digesting both US Presidential elections and Feds rate cut and macroeconomic overview. In this sense, some further relaxation for the price of gold is quite possible. Considering that during the previous time, the price of gold had a strong uptrend, there should not be expected some stronger move to the downside. The level of $2.650 might be tested, with some modest potential for the level of $2,6K. On the opposite side, there is some probability for the level of $2,7K, but with lower probability.
Xauusd(w)
The downtrend of GOLD is still dominantUnder pressure from the strengthening of the US Dollar TVC:DXY and as markets digest the potential impact of Donald Trump's victory on US interest rate expectations, OANDA:XAUUSD fell again on Friday (November 8) after recovering. Biggest weekly drop in months.
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday but said it would adopt a cautious strategy for further cuts. Trump's victory has raised questions about whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates more slowly and in smaller amounts because of the former president's tariff policies.
However, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the election results would have no "short-term" impact on monetary policy. So far this year, expectations of a half-basis-point interest rate cut starting in September have supported gold's record recovery.
Although OANDA:XAUUSD considered a safe haven from inflation but a possibility for higher interest rates has reduced the appeal of non-yielding gold.
Due to Trump's tariff policy, his election has led to market speculation that the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could be smaller and slower.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell did not provide advance guidance on monetary policy and left options open at future meetings. He emphasized that because the economy is strong, the Fed can take its time lowering interest rates.
Powell acknowledged that even after Thursday's rate cut, policy remains limited as officials aim to lower interest rates to neutral levels.
In terms of Friday's economic data, the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index showed US consumer confidence rose to a seven-month high in early November and an index measuring US expectations Households on the future rose to their highest level in more than three months.
Specific data shows that the initial value of the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index in the United States increased to 73.0 in November, much higher than the previous value of 70.5 and expectations of the market is 71.0.
Additionally, the preliminary value of the University of Michigan's expectations index in the US rose to 78.5 in November, the highest since mid-2021.
These surveys were conducted between October 22 and November 4, before Mr. Trump was elected president of the United States.
Overall assessment of the current fundamental picture is that Gold is suffering from two main impacts as President Trump is likely to boost the USD due to his tariff policies and economic trends, this is not true. Gold's correlation with the US Dollar is beneficial. On the other hand, gold is supported by the Fed's interest rate trend, and the market's expectations of continued interest rate cuts.
However, in the short term, with Trump newly re-elected, the need to create an impression may dim the market's attention to the Fed and gold will be under more pressure from the USD's potential.
According to official data released last Thursday, the People's Bank of China's (PBoC) chain of stopping gold purchases extended to the sixth month in October.
China's gold reserves reached 2,063.84 tons at the end of last month. However, the value of this gold reserve has increased thanks to the continuous increase in gold prices. As of September 30, the value of the country's gold reserves had increased to $191.47 billion, up from $182.98 billion at the end of August.
About this week's economic calendar
Next week's economic calendar is relatively light, with major economic news events including US core October CPI data on Wednesday, PPI report on Thursday and data on claims weekly unemployment claims as well as US retail sales data on Friday.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will also speak on Thursday, his first opportunity to comment on the incoming administration and central bank independence. These events will be the focus of market participants and could have an impact on the gold market.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold stopped recovering after reaching EMA21, the most recent key resistance level noted by readers in previous editions.
Currently, the weakening momentum is also limited with the closing position still above the $2,684 technical point which is the nearest horizontal support and then the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level.
Although the downward momentum is limited, in general the trend and technical conditions are still leaning towards the possibility of a decrease in price with the short-term trend being noticed by the price channel and important resistance at EMA21, on the other hand, The relative strength index (RSI) is also bending downward from the 50 area, showing signs that there is still ample room for price decline ahead.
Judging from the technical chart, gold tends to decline in price and notable points will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,668 – 2,640USD
Resistance: 2,697 – 2,700 – 2,710USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2721 - 2719⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2725
→Take Profit 1 2714
↨
→Take Profit 2 2709
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2639 - 2641⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2635
→Take Profit 1 2646
↨
→Take Profit 2 2651
Gold Prices Today: Sharp Drop at Market OpenOn the morning of November 11, gold prices opened at $2,674 per ounce, down approximately $10 from the previous week's close. This sharp decline followed the recent election, sparking a wave of investor sell-offs and raising concerns about the future direction of the precious metal.
The decline may persist for about six weeks, but medium- to long-term demand is expected to rise. Many central banks are continuing to diversify their assets with gold to reduce dependence on the US dollar. Additionally, the Federal Reserve and other central banks may maintain accommodative monetary policies to support slowing economies, potentially creating favorable conditions for gold prices to rebound in the future.
Gold Analysis: Short Fibonacci ResistanceIn this 1-hour Gold chart (XAU/USD), we observe the price retesting a significant area around the 2687 level after a recent downtrend. Fibonacci retracement levels are applied to gauge potential retracement zones.
Entry Position: A potential short entry can be taken near the 2687 level, where price is facing resistance.
Take-Profit Target: The first profit target could be set around 2664, where the next support lies, aligning with a favorable risk-to-reward ratio.
Stop-Loss: Consider placing the stop-loss above the 0.5 Fibonacci level at 2699 to minimize risk if the price breaks higher.
XAUUSD H1 | Bullish BounceBased on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price has just bounced off our buy zone at 2664- 2668, which is pullback support close to 61.8% Fibo retracement.
Our take profit will be at 2679.84 which is the pullback resistance level.
The stop loss will be placed at 2652,58, an overlap support level.
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XAUUSD RECAP & TRADE IDEAFrom the previous setup, we can see that the movement of gold made a breakout at the 2728 level before dropping to the take profit level at the 2.618 Fibonacci extension (2651) and then made a correction to the 50-61.8 Fibonacci retracement level (2709). So this week, I am waiting to see if the current price will head towards the 1.618 Fibonacci extension before deciding to continue the buy position. If the price successfully breaks the support level at 2642, it is likely that the price will head towards 2360-2500/90. However, if there is a bounce at the support area, the price might continue to rise towards 2690-2700.
**My trading strategy is not intended to be a signal. It's a process of learning about market structure and sharpening my trading my skills also for my trade journal**
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GOLD, SILVER, PLATINUM & COPPER Weekly Forecast Nov. 11thThe Metals are at areas of supportive discount arrays, but will they move higher.
The latest COT Report indicates the institutional traders are betting on higher prices, even when the assets seem to be in consolidation.
Monday is a US bank holiday, and Tuesday may start slow, but I suspect the price action will be clearer come Wednesday.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
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Gold Price Today (11/11): Has the Uptrend Ended?Gold prices are currently under strong downward pressure due to macroeconomic factors and market sentiment. Positive economic indicators from the U.S., such as the rise in the Consumer Confidence Index and inflation expectations, lead investors to forecast that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is unlikely to cut interest rates in the near future. Additionally, increased holiday shopping demand is boosting the U.S. economy, but putting pressure on gold prices. The market also expects gold to continue declining as Donald Trump takes office.
Looking at the chart, we see that the EMA 34 has crossed below the EMA 89, signaling a bearish trend and indicating that the price trend has shifted to the downside. With resistance levels at 2,706 and 2,670, it will be difficult for gold to regain an uptrend. The next support level may be around 2,620, where gold could find strong buying interest and possibly reverse temporarily. However, if this support is not maintained and prices break lower, the likelihood of gold continuing to decline to deeper support levels, such as 2,590 and 2,550, is high.
In this context, with gold prices likely to continue falling, it is essential to closely monitor key support and resistance levels to make informed investment decisions. If gold cannot hold important support levels, investors may need to adjust their portfolios accordingly.
XAU/USD Longs from 2,66.000 back up?My analysis this week suggests that gold may accumulate around my point of interest at 2,660.00, where a 9-hour demand zone has formed. With liquidity and imbalance left to the upside, price might look to continue in its pro-trend direction.
Alternate Scenario: If price reaches the area around 2,740.00, we might see a retracement or bearish reaction. Given recent bearish pressure that’s led to a CHoCH and BOS, this scenario could align with the current order flow.
Confluences for GOLD Buys:
- A clean, unmitigated demand zone below.
- DXY has shown strong upside movement and may be due for a pullback.
- Significant liquidity lies to the upside.
- The overall market trend remains bullish.
P.S. If price respects the 9-hour supply zone and continues breaking structure to the downside, it could validate a temporary bearish move. Have a great trading week!
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Nov 11 - Nov 15]Last week, after opening at 2,738 USD/oz, gold prices increased slightly to 2,749 USD/oz, but then dropped sharply to 2,643 USD/oz after Donald Trump announced his re-election as President. America. In the next trading session, gold price recovered to 2,710 USD/oz when the FED announced to continue cutting interest rates by 0.25%. However, the recovery momentum of gold prices was not sustainable, gold prices quickly dropped to 2,680 USD/oz and closed this week at 2,684 USD/oz.
The reason why Donald Trump's re-election as US President caused gold prices to plummet is because: First, investors expect that Mr. Trump will be able to intervene soon to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, the conflict in the Middle East, tension on the Korean peninsula,... Because during his first term, Mr. Trump almost did not let any fierce fighting occur. This will reduce the haven role of gold in the eyes of investors.
Second, during the election campaign, Mr. Trump pledged to impose a 60% tax on goods imported from China and impose a 20% tax on goods imported from other countries. If Mr. Trump carries out this commitment, it will push up the prices of US consumer goods, causing inflationary pressures to return, forcing the FED to raise interest rates, helping the USD increase sharply compared to other major currencies, causing Gold price dropped sharply.
Mr. Trump's victory may continue to have a negative impact on gold prices in the short term, but this impact may gradually decrease, because Mr. Trump will officially take office early next year. Therefore, US economic data may receive more attention from investors because it directly impacts the prospect of cutting interest rates by the FED.
This week's economic calendar is quite bleak, especially when compared to this week's major events. The main economic news and events to monitor will be CPI, PPI, October retail sales, and US weekly unemployment benefit claims data. In addition, FED Chairman Jerome Powell will also give a speech next Thursday.
📌From a technical perspective, on the H4 chart, the price of gold is forming a head and shoulders pattern, however, confirmation is needed when the 2642 support zone is broken. If this price model is true, the gold price may drop to an area approaching 2,530 USD/oz. In the opposite case, the gold price will still maintain its upward momentum if the price trades above the 2710 threshold, and at the same time breaks through the peak level at 2,790 USD/oz.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2,668 – 2,640USD
Resistance: 2,697 – 2,700 – 2,710USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2751 - 2749⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2755
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2599 - 2601⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2595
Bearish drop off 50% Fibonacci resistance?The Gold (XAU/USD) has reacted off the pivot which acts as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could drop to the 1st support which has been identified as a pullback support.
Pivot: 2,713.01
1st Support: 2,605.27
1st Resistance: 2,790.10
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Gold Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance )
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XAUUSD 10/11/24XAU Followed our newly established selling buyer last week, a clear shift to the downside. Of course, this was helped by the US election and the results. We now have the same scenario and the same bias in place. We have one area of supply that has already been tapped into. We have 2 liquid highs that are situated at that area of supply and then a higher point of supply which is untapped. Now ultimately we aim for the low as always a pullback is not necessary, but this is gold. So there is a scenario that all these points for selling will fail and we will then aim for the all time high. Our current bias is bearish if this changes during the week and we will update everybody. if it does not we will continue to sell this down to lower pricing before institute becomes interested once again.
Follow your plan and stick to your risk!
XAUUSD top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
Gold out Lookthose who are bearish should see weekly Rejection till the trend line price broke its daily recent trend line and got back in i suggest that gold will remain bullish over this week as it has not broke its trend line to the downside if it does so and breaks below 2678 level of support we can consider it will drop towards 2661 and then 2648-45 level of support and will not come upwards easily then another confluence is gold has closed back in position and remained near 2700 level and retested it several times
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone,
Please see our updated 1h chart levels and targets for the coming week.
We are seeing price play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 2704 and a gap below at 2682. We will need to see ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2704
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2704 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2725
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2725 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2753
BEARISH TARGETS
2682
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2682 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
2657
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2657 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
2638
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2638 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE RANGE
SWING RANGE
2621 - 2608
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone,
Please see our updated 4h chart levels and targets for the coming week.
We are seeing price lay between two weighted levels with a gap above at 2696 and a gap below at 2665, as weighted Goldturns and will need ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2694
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2694 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2724
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2724 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2754
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2754 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2784
BEARISH TARGETS
2665
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2665 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE RANGE
SWING RANGE
2640 - 2611
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
GOLD DAILY CHART SHORT/MID TERM ROUTE MAPHey Everyone,
Please see update on our daily chart idea that we have been tracking for a while with the updated retracement and swing range.
Previously after completing 2760 target, we stated that we now have a candle body close above 2760 for a continuation above with a gap open to 2797. We got the move but fell just short of the full gap, but no ema5 lock, which would've further confirm this. We also stated that failure to complete this gap will see price test the retracement range for bounces and a further lock below the retracement range will open the swing range.
- We got the rejection from no ema5 lock above, followed with the retracement range and swing range test, which both gave the bounces like we said.
As long as we see price stay above the swing range, we will continue to see the levels above tested and support levels re-tested for the bounces, keeping in mind the long range/term gap above.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
Our long term bias is Bullish and therefore we will continue to use our smaller timeframes to buy dips using our levels and setups.
Buying dips allows us to safely manage any swings rather then chasing the bull from the top.
Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX