Dangers and opportunities for gold? Trend change?In early Asian trading, spot gold fluctuated in a narrow range and is currently trading around $3,300. After rising in the first three trading days of this week, gold prices briefly hit a two-week high of $3,345 in Asian trading on Thursday, then fell sharply and finally closed around $3,294. This rapid change hides the fierce struggle between the strengthening of the US dollar, the turmoil of US bonds and geopolitical changes.
The rebound of the US dollar is the biggest pressure for the rise in gold prices.
Another major pressure on the gold market comes from the sharp fluctuations in US bond yields. The 30-year US bond yield hit a 19-month high, reflecting the market's deep concerns about the $3.8 trillion in new debt. The cold auction of $16 billion in 20-year US bonds on Wednesday further confirmed the judgment that the demand for sovereign bonds is undergoing structural changes.
The current gold market is being pulled by multiple forces. In the short term, the technical rebound of the US dollar and the selling of US bonds do pose pressure. But in-depth analysis shows that the pressure of currency depreciation brought by the $3.8 trillion fiscal expansion, the safe-haven demand caused by the damaged credit of US debt, and the risk of stagflation are three factors that are building long-term support for gold.
I think the shadow of global bond market turmoil will become a potential factor for the bullish gold market.
There are relatively few economic data during Asian trading hours. The focus should be on the annualized total number of new home sales in the United States in April after seasonal adjustment and the speeches of Federal Reserve officials, as well as news related to the geopolitical situation and the international trade situation.
I will also analyze the latest international news and its impact on gold prices for you as soon as possible.
Short-term operation strategy:
First rise: short near 3345, stop loss 3255, profit range 3280-3270.
First fall: long near 3275, stop loss 3265, profit range 3300-3310.
Xauusd-analyse
XAUUSD Bull flag/ Break out or rejectionCurrently on the 4hour chart I have notice a bull flag forming, we are currently in a critical phase where price may break out to the upside or be rejected to anywhere as low as 3235 or even lower.
If price is rejected this could be the final leg down before we break out of the bull flag.
Gold bulls push prices to around 3355
📌 Driving events
Gold prices rose more than 0.50% and held above the $3,300 mark, driven by renewed safe-haven demand and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. As of writing, gold/USD is trading around $3,317, rebounding from an intraday low of $3,285.
Market sentiment remains fragile, with US stocks falling into negative territory and US Treasury yields slightly higher. All eyes are on the upcoming vote on President Trump's tax reform plan. According to estimates by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the plan could lead to an approximately $3.8 trillion expansion of the US national debt. Uncertainty about the fiscal outlook continues to stimulate demand for gold as a defensive asset.
📊Comment Analysis
Gold price recovery is good, pay attention to the 3358 price area, adjust downward, and continue to accumulate funds around 3300
💰Strategy Package
🔥Sell gold area: 3358-3360 SL 3365
TP1: $3350
TP2: $3337
TP3: $3322
🔥Buy gold area: $3284-$3276 SL $3270
TP1: $3300
TP2: $3320
TP3: $3340
⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
- Choose the number of lots that matches your funds
- Profit is 4-7% of the fund account
- Stop loss is 1-3% of the fund account
The unilateral offensive is fierce: the bulls have clear goalsGold is performing strongly sideways. We are in the same rhythm as yesterday and continue to maintain bullishness. Gold broke through the key resistance of 3280 on Tuesday and then rose strongly. It is currently above the area near 3330. The technical side shows that the bullish trend continues. The next target may point to the high of 3400. After rising continuously on Monday and Tuesday, it slightly adjusted back to around 3285 on Wednesday and stabilized before rising again. The daily line closed positive and stood firmly on the middle track. The Bollinger band opened upward, and the upper track pressure was at 3400, suggesting that the medium-term upward space is open. The Bollinger band opened significantly, the moving average was arranged in a bullish pattern, and the upward momentum was strong. Short-term support focuses on the moving average at 3315. If the correction does not break this position, the trend long order can follow up. If the key resistance of 3350 is effectively broken, it will further open up the upward space.
Gold operation suggestions: continue to go long after stepping back to 3320-3315, with a target of 3350. If it rises to around 3350 without breaking, you can arrange short-term short orders, with a target of 3330.
Is the gold price far from 3,400?Information summary:
The trade war is a continuous war, and it has just begun. During Trump's four years in office, trade conflicts will continue to occur. Trade conflicts are means, not ends. The goal of the United States is to transfuse blood to its own economy through trade negotiations.
In addition, US inflation fell to a historic low of 2.3% in April. The Federal Reserve has not cut interest rates on the grounds that inflation will rebound. The Federal Reserve can't hold on for long. Cutting interest rates is the only antidote to boost the economy, and it is also a special medicine.
Next, once the Federal Reserve releases the wind of interest rate cuts, the market's risk aversion will be ignited again. In June, 6 trillion US bonds will mature. Regardless of the result this time, market sentiment will be worried, which is the key to driving price fluctuations.
Market analysis:
The 1-hour gold price broke through yesterday's high of $3,320. The previous pressure formed a new top-bottom conversion position, and the strong market was only a small correction in the middle. There is no need to worry about whether it will peak, but there must be a standard for judging the peak; this standard is: breaking the support position before the last decline, and the second rebound does not set a new high.
Operation strategy:
Go long when the price falls back to around $3,330, stop loss at $3,320, and profit range at $3,365-3,380.
Grasp the core strategy of trend tradingGold continues to be bullish and will go to the area near the gap of 3325. At that time, the short-term may be blocked and fall back. If it breaks, look at the area near 3340-3345. In the 4H cycle, relying on the moving average to support the rising stage, and the Bollinger is in an open state, there is still room to see above. The support for the fall back is to pay attention to the top and bottom of the small cycle of 3285, followed by the low point of 3274, but there will not be too much retracement in the strong position. In terms of operation, the main fall back is long, and gradually look at 3325 and 3345. Shorting can only be entered at key points, and fast in and out without fighting.
Operation suggestion: Go long on gold near 3285-74, look at 3315 and 3325! If it is extremely strong, go long on the support of 3298-3295!
Gold breaks upward, space opens up
📌 Driving events
Internationally, US media reported that US intelligence agencies found that Israel was preparing to attack Iran's nuclear facilities, and gold and crude oil both soared in the short term.
Recently, the Iran nuclear talks and the Russia-Ukraine talks were carried out simultaneously, and the market risk aversion sentiment fluctuated greatly
📊Comment analysis
While the medium and long-term outlook continues to be bullish on gold's performance this year, short-term operations are mainly based on news. Pay attention to light positions and maintain flexibility in short-term operations.
💰Strategy Package
🔥Buy Gold Zone: 3310-3315 SL 3307 Scalping
TP1: $3318
TP2: $3325
TP3: $3330
🔥Sell Gold Zone: 3354-3356 SL 3361
TP1: $3345
TP2: $3332
TP3: $3320
🔥Buy Gold Zone: $3252 - $3250 SL $3245
TP1: $3260
TP2: $3270
TP3: $3280
⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
- Choose the number of lots that matches your funds
- Profit is 4-7% of the fund account
- Stop loss is 1-3% of the fund account
My Learning and analysis on GOLD (XAUUSD)Hello Community,
I have shared everything as per my learning. Maybe, it is right or wrong. It doesn't matter have rough idea about Gold (XAUUSD). Please, Do not consider it's as your learning. I am beginner and just tracking my trading journey.
Have a Good Trading day ahead.
Comment down your thoughts below. Always inspired to learn.
Thanks.
Gold Trends and Trading StrategiesThe gold market continued to fluctuate yesterday, and the price was repeatedly under pressure at the key position of 3250. At the weekly level, gold prices tried to rebound after bottoming out on Friday, but the upper short-term moving average formed technical suppression, and the daily line closed with a cross star with long upper and lower shadows, and the long-short game was fierce. From a technical perspective, the 4-hour chart shows a descending channel pattern. The price rebounded after testing the lower track of the channel many times, but it has never effectively broken through the 3250 central axis suppression. The hourly chart shows that the market maintains a rhythm of shock correction. The current daily line has two Yins and one Yang, but it has not effectively broken the previous low. It is expected that the bottoming and rebounding mode may continue today. In terms of operation, it is recommended to pay attention to the 3260-3200 range, and rely on the upper and lower edges of the channel to implement a high-altitude low-multiple strategy.
Gold operation suggestions:
1. Short near the rebound of 3247-3252, target 3230-3220.
2. Go long near the retracement of 3206-3215, target 3230-3245.
Gold bottomed out and rebounded, US market ideas!
📊Comment analysis
During the European and American markets, the market rebounded to 3249. Before the rebound, it was mentioned that the first resistance today was around 3251, followed by the defense point of 3265. As expected, gold plunged slightly near the resistance level of 3251, and fell to 3227 at its lowest.
💰Strategy package
Short at the current price of 3239-40, add shorts near 3242 and 3245, stop loss 3253 target 3200-3165
⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
- Choose the number of lots that matches your funds
- Profit is 4-7% of the fund account
- Stop loss is 1-3% of the fund account
Gold Price Trading Around 3,200 Points
📌 Gold Information
Gold (XAU/USD) is recovering from recent losses, trading around $3,230 per troy ounce during Asian trading hours on Monday as investors seek safe haven assets amid growing concerns about the US economic outlook and fiscal sustainability. The rebound follows Moody's decision to downgrade the US credit rating by one notch, from Aaa to Aa1, citing growing debt and the burden of interest payments. This follows previous downgrades by Fitch and Standard & Poor's in 2023 and 2011, respectively. Moody's now forecasts that the US federal debt will surge to around 134% of GDP by 2035 from 98% in 2023, due to ballooning debt servicing costs, expanding entitlement programs, and shrinking tax revenues - all of which have heightened investor concerns and provided new support for gold prices.
📊Comment Analysis
Gold price fluctuated around 3200 at the beginning of the week. There was not much news and it continued to go sideways.
💰Strategy Package
⭐️Set gold price:
🔥Sell gold area: 3259-3261 SL 3266
TP1: $3250
TP2: $3240
TP3: $3230
🔥Buy gold area: $3192 - $3190 SL $3185
TP1: $3200
TP2: $3210
TP3: $3220
⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
- Choose the number of lots that matches your funds
- Profit is 4-7% of the fund account
- Stop loss is 1-3% of the fund account
Moody's downgrades US credit rating, will gold be affected?Information summary:
At about 4:43 pm on Friday (the last minute before the market closed), Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from AAA to Aa1 on the grounds of "surge in debt and fiscal out of control", ending the US's last "top credit" title among the three major rating agencies.
Perhaps considering reducing the impact, Moody's announced this news after the US stock market closed. But at this time, gold, foreign exchange and other markets still have more than ten minutes of trading time. The 10-year US Treasury yield once rushed from 4.44% to 4.49%, the US dollar index fell, and gold rushed up.
The downgrade is a super-class data, which may cause gold to rebound in stages, but not continuously. If nothing unexpected happens, after the adjustment, gold may continue to retreat in a trend.
Technical analysis:
Next week, gold may rebound in stages to 3330-3340. Then there may be a trend decline again, and I estimate that it may test around 2950 below. As for why it went to 3330-40, here is an analysis:
I think the current gold trend is very similar to the holiday trend in Asia from May 1st to 5th. It also fell sharply, then bottomed out and rebounded, and then stretched up again. I also drew it in the picture, which is basically consistent with the current trend. If the next market trend is copied from the previous paragraph, then I think it should test the 3330-40 point.
Gold rebounds above 3190, maintains
🔔 Driving Events
Gold prices (XAU/USD) failed to extend Thursday's sharp rebound from the $3,120 area (the lowest level since April 10) and faced selling pressure again during Friday's Asian session. The 90-day trade truce between China and the United States has relieved some of the pressure on global financial markets, suppressing demand for safe-haven metals.
Nevertheless, lingering geopolitical tensions and a weaker US dollar continue to provide potential support, limiting the downside for gold prices. In addition, the market's growing expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may prevent traders from taking a strong bearish stance on gold in the short term.
📊Comment Analysis
Gold prices have recovered, and buyers are determined to keep gold prices stable around 3200 points in May. Waiting for new bullish momentum after the end of tariff negotiations
💰Strategy Package
🔥Sell Gold Zone: 3287-3290 SL 3294
TP1: $3270
TP2: $3260
TP3: $3250
🔥Buy Gold Zone: $3173 - $3175 SL $3168
TP1: $3188
TP2: $3200
TP3: $3218
⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
- Choose the lot size that matches your funds
- Profit is 4-7% of the capital account
- Stop loss is 1-3% of the capital account
Gold rebounded to the expected position, 3205 short!
📌 Driving Event
The announcement of a 90-day trade truce between the world's two largest economies also helped ease recession concerns in the United States, prompting investors to reduce expectations for aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve (FED). This shift supports the continued rise in U.S. Treasury yields, further suppressing demand for interest-free gold.
📊 Commentary Analysis
Today, the price of gold fell to its lowest point in more than a month. It once hit the lowest level since April 10 at 3120, and then rebounded to the 3200 line, and the volatility increased again!
💰 Strategy Package
Short position:
Actively participate in 3200-3203 points, with a profit target around 3120 points
⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
- Choose a lot size that matches your funds
- Profit is 4-7% of the fund account
- Stop loss is 1-3% of the fund account
Gold prices fell by more than $50. Two news will be released.At the end of the Asian session, gold accelerated its decline, with the lowest price falling to around $3,123, and plummeting more than $50 during the day.
Gold prices continued to fall in the Asian session and were under pressure from multiple factors. Optimism about Sino-US trade weakened gold's safe-haven effect. In addition, reduced bets on the Fed's rate cuts and rising US Treasury yields are also not conducive to gold prices.
There are two pieces of news to pay attention to in today's trading market.
1. At 8:30 a.m. US time, the U.S. Census Bureau will release April retail sales data.
2. At 8:40 a.m. US time, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver an opening speech at the second Thomas Laubach Research Conference. (This conference will focus on research on monetary policy and economics, and is expected to provide an academic perspective for the Fed's commitment to review the monetary policy framework every five years.)
Trading analysis:
Gold prices have just fallen below the $3,140 support level, which makes gold prices vulnerable. Some follow-up selling could push gold further towards $3,100; if it falls below this level, gold could target $3,060.
On the upside, if gold prices rise back above the $3,160-3,170 area, it could face strong resistance at the Asian session high and then $3,200.
Any further gains in gold prices could be seen as selling opportunities and could lose upward momentum around $3,230. This is a key level, and if it breaks through this level, a new round of short-covering could push gold prices up to $3,265 to form resistance before moving towards the $3,300 mark.
Market trading is risky, and I hope you will take profits in time; make a good profit.
Gold price plunges suddenly. Technical analysis.Information summary:
During the Asian session, gold prices suddenly plunged, and the price of gold has now hit a low of $3,148, down more than $44 from the intraday high of $3,192.78 hit earlier.
Gold prices continued to fall after breaking the $3,200 support I predicted earlier, and gold prices fell to a one-month low, continuing the recent decline.
The sharp reduction in tariffs between the United States and China has brought relief to global markets and led to a rebound, which has caused gold to correct and break through multiple technical levels.
Technical analysis:
In the short term, according to the 4-hour chart, the outlook for gold is bearish. Gold prices are trading below all of their moving averages, and the 20-period SMA has fallen below the 200-period SMA, which is located at $3,232, which will constitute an important resistance if the gold price trend recovers. Finally, technical indicators lack directional strength, but remain at negative levels, reflecting a lack of buying interest.
I think traders need to pay attention to the latest important support and upward resistance levels:
Support: $3140.
Resistance: $3100; $3215; $3232.
Gold rebounds weakly, US market ideas for reference!
📌 Driving factors
As Sino-US trade tensions ease, market concerns about a global recession ease, investors' risk appetite rises, and gold's attractiveness as a safe-haven asset declines, gold prices fell on Wednesday (May 14). After the tariff truce announced over the weekend, the stock market rose sharply, weakening gold's safe-haven appeal in the short term, which was an important factor that pushed gold prices to new highs in the previous few months, and it is also the starting point for the current large-scale selling!
📊Commentary Analysis
After gold fell below 3200 in the US market, it rebounded to 3198 at its highest. This rebound was just an oversold rebound, and then continued to fall back. Although it has not refreshed the low for the time being, the pattern has weakened, and it is difficult to get up again in the early morning. Weak shorts can't even get past 3198, and the short-term support below is around 3160.
The daily cycle is constructed based on the M-head pattern. 3200 is the long defensive position. If it fails to close, there will be a fall. The technical side has already experienced a major break. Pay attention to the change of thinking. If the adjustment range is large, it may even reach 2900/3000. It rises fast and falls fast, but the long-term logic of gold's rise remains unchanged. It is also an opportunity to lay out more positions, but the position needs to follow the market observation, which is difficult to predict at present.
💰Strategy Package
In the short term, we will rely on 3198 for defensive short selling. After breaking 3200, please note that even if it rebounds, we should follow the trend and short. If it rebounds upward, we should short at the golden section resistance of 3265.
Good luck to everyone!
Labaron believes that
Guaranteeing the principal is the bottom line for survival, controlling risks is the armor for survival, earning income is a stage medal, and long-term stable and continuous profit is the only certificate to finally stand up from the sea of corpses and blood.
Gold comprehensive analysis summaryTechnical analysis of gold: In recent trading days, gold has experienced a rapid decline during the Asian session, then stabilized and rebounded, fluctuated during the European session, and rebounded after rising in the US session. Today, under pressure during the Asian session, the high point of yesterday's US session, 3258-60, has already experienced a rapid decline. It depends on whether it can stabilize and rebound next. Overall, continue to pay attention to the medium-term support of 3202-07. Before breaking down, once the bulls stabilize, they will fill the gap of Monday's gap in the area of 3320-25; if it breaks down, it will open up the downward space, further 3160-3120, and then gradually fall to 3060 and the starting point of this round of bulls, 3000. The M top or W bottom we emphasized is still waiting for the market to choose!
From the hourly chart, gold is currently facing some downward pressure, especially since the current price has fallen below the previous support range. After falling below the support level, the gold price rebounded again, but this rebound failed to break through the original support level and turned into resistance, indicating that the price has not recovered effectively. For now, multiple rebounds have hit around 3257 to form a double top pattern, and the scope of short-term long and short consolidation has been reduced. Including today's Asian session decline, it did not fall below the 3220 US dollar line. The short-term consolidation range temporarily refers to the 3257-3220 US dollar range, and the break will be adjusted. Today, the 1-hour SAR indicator 3246 pressure is referenced above. If it breaks above, it will look at the recent double top 3257 pressure short. Secondly, look at the 3265-78 range multi-directional suppression short. It is recommended to refer to the Asian session low near 3220 for long below. If it breaks below, it will look at the 3207-3200 range for long. On the whole, today's short-term operation strategy for gold is mainly to do more on the pullback and short on the rebound. The short-term focus on the upper side is the 3257-3265 line of resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is the 3215-3220 line of support.
Gold operation strategy reference: short gold near 3250-3260, target near 3240-3230. Gold pullback near 3225-3220 to do more, target near 3240-3250.
Gold continues to trade sideways above the 3200 area
📌 Driving factors
The United States and China announced on Monday a 90-day suspension of tariff increases. According to statements made after the Geneva talks last weekend, the United States will reduce tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, while China will reduce tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10%.
Meanwhile, on the geopolitical front, Russia and Ukraine are preparing for their first high-level face-to-face talks since 2022, scheduled to take place in Istanbul this week. The talks come as the international community is increasingly pressuring Moscow to accept a 30-day ceasefire. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and special envoys Steve Witkov and Keith Kellogg are expected to represent the United States in the talks.
Gold prices rebounded on Tuesday, driven by bargain hunting, while weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation data released that day also helped gold prices rise. However, trade optimism limited the strength of gold's rebound.
📊Comment Analysis
In the accumulation price zone, the gold price is sideways around 3200-3270, and the buyers and sellers are balanced
💰Strategy Package
🔥Selling gold area: 3282-3284 SL 3289
TP1: $3270
TP2: $3260
TP3: $3250
🔥Buying gold area: $3167-$3165 SL $3160
TP1: $3178
TP2: $3189
TP3: $3200!
Labaron believes
Guaranteeing the principal is the bottom line for survival, controlling risks is the armor for survival, earning profits is a stage medal, and long-term stable and continuous profits are the only proof that can finally stand up from the sea of corpses and blood.
The long and short gold competition continuesGold on Tuesday was more in line with our analysis ideas. We gave a short position at 3250-60, and the market conditions were also quite favorable for our entry opportunities. We notified the entry and exited with profits as gold fell back. The CPI was bullish and gold rebounded weakly, so our long positions were also safely exited with profits.
Pay attention to the stabilization of the two supports of 3215-3225, and take 3200 as the turning point of the Fengshui Ridge. Hold it to continue to maintain the bottom shock operation or gradually rebound; once it breaks through 3270, the rebound will be strengthened to test the 3300 mark; if it breaks through 3300 and stabilizes, the downward adjustment will end and return to the upward trend; Then as long as 3270-3300 is still not suppressed in the middle, it will repeatedly rise and fall to test the bottom support; if 3200 is accidentally lost, it will point to 3160-3150, and you need to be mentally prepared in advance, hoping that it will not happen; looking at the 4-hour chart of gold: at this time, the 5-day short-term golden cross is expected to cross the 10-day, then above 3240 will become a certain support performance, and the key strong support is the annual moving average moving up to 3200; one resistance is the big Yin high point in front of 3290, which is also the dividing pressure, and the strong pressure is the middle track 3293, or close to the 3300 mark; pay attention to the gains and losses between support and resistance. The short-term focus on the upper side is the 3270-3290 resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is the 3215-3225 support.
Gold fluctuates repeatedly and is expected to fall below 3,200
📌 Driving factors
The U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics announced on Tuesday that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-on-month in April, lower than the 0.3% expected by economists. However, analysts warned that inflation may rise as tariffs gradually push up commodity prices.
The United States and China announced on Monday that they would suspend tariffs for 90 days. According to the statement made by both sides after the Geneva talks last weekend, the United States will reduce tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, and China will reduce tariffs on U.S. imports from 125% to 10%.
Driven by bargain hunting, gold prices rebounded on Tuesday, and the weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation data released that day also helped gold prices rise. However, trade optimism limits the strength of gold's rebound.
📊Commentary and analysis
Gold fell and then rose yesterday, and the final rebound stopped at 3,266. The trend is in line with our bearish expectations. As for the repeated fluctuations in the market, it is just a futile effort! Yesterday, due to the influence of the US CPI data, although gold rose in the short term, it was still under pressure and weakened. Today, the Asian session continued to fall in the early trading. As the support position near 3210 points is approaching, aggressive shorting is no longer appropriate!
In terms of trend, the 4-hour level trend of gold is still under pressure. Yesterday, it was under pressure at the 3260 line, and then the market fell back. Recently, it has maintained a trend of continuously moving down lows, and the rebound highs are gradually decreasing. It can be seen that the bulls are less willing to attack, which is different from the previous surge. Gold adjustment has become inevitable.
💰Strategy Package
Rebound short: short near 3265, stop loss 3269, target near 3220!
Labaron believes that
Guaranteeing the principal is the bottom line for survival, controlling risks is the armor for survival, earning income is a stage medal, and long-term stable and continuous profit is the only certificate to finally stand up from the sea of corpses and blood.
CPI data released. Impact on gold prices?Gold suffered a setback this week; but then it rose to $3,250 and began to fluctuate slightly.
CPI data was released this morning, but it did not have a big impact on gold. The current price is still in a sideways trend.
Two support positions need to be paid attention to today:
Downward $3,230 support line, if it falls below this position, the gold price will quickly reach below $3,200.
Upward $3,270 resistance line, if it breaks through the resistance position strongly, there is hope to try to break through $3,300.
Quaid believes that if the gold price fails to break through today and presents a new trend, it is likely to continue the sideways trend.