XAUUSD: Shorting Range: 2796-2807The market is currently closed. On the 2-hour chart, there are three long lower shadows, indicating strong support below. Although the MACD indicator is facing a bearish crossover, the presence of this strong support suggests a potential for a second surge in volume.
Therefore, during tomorrow's Asian and European trading sessions, if the support level in the 2780-2776 range holds, gold is likely to break above the 2790 high and test the psychological level of 2800.
Additionally, tomorrow during the U.S. session, we will have the initial jobless claims data released, which I expect to have a bearish impact on gold. Consequently, the overall trading strategy for tomorrow will be to go long first and then short later.
The trading range will be set with 2796-2807 as the high range and 2772-2767 as the low range.
Xauusd4h
XAU/USD 28 October 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
Analysis/bias remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 27 October 2024.
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Gold’s rally persists amid the Fed’s dovish tone and heightened geopolitical tensions, solidifying its safe-haven appeal.
Price has printed a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), signaling, but not yet confirming, the start of bearish pullback phase.
Intraday Expectation: Despite the bearish CHoCH, price has yet to pull back into the internal 50% EQ discount. We could see a reaction at the H4 supply level before any confirmation of bearish pullback initiation.
Technical Note: The strong high at 2,758.525 is anticipated to remain protected. However, with CHoCH positioning on the daily timeframe somewhat distant, price may print a bullish iBOS in the near term to align with the daily timeframe’s movement.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Analysis/intraday expectation remains the same as analysis dated 24 October 2024.
Yesterday's intraday expectation was not met, as price failed to target the weak internal high and instead printed a bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS). This aligns with the H4 timeframe being in a pullback phase.
As previously highlighted, price remains highly volatile, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and the Fed's softer stance.
Price has since printed a bullish Change of Character (CHoCH), suggesting but not confirming the initiation of a bullish pullback phase. Currently, price is trading within a well-established internal range.
Intraday Expectation: Price is reacting around the 50% equilibrium of the internal range and may also react at nested H4 and M15 supply levels before targeting the weak internal low.
M15 Chart:
Gold range-bound bullishDear traders, you need to be cautious when trading. You must set stop loss and take profit for each transaction. This can better protect your account from being stuck. I will continue to update the crude oil trading strategy.
Technical analysis of gold: Gold fluctuated yesterday, opened low in the morning, stabilized and rose at 2643, but fell back in the evening, and the daily line finally closed with a long shadow. Looking at the daily line alone, today should be mainly falling back to high altitude. Although the geopolitical situation provided safe-haven buying support for gold prices earlier, gold prices once rose to a one-week high of $2666.70/ounce, but as the US dollar rebounded to a ten-week high, gold prices gave up gains and closed slightly lower. Gold rose directly yesterday as expected, reaching a high of 2666, and as we analyzed in the morning, it rose again.
Overall, today's short-term operation strategy for gold is recommended to be mainly short-selling on rebounds, supplemented by long-selling on pullbacks. The short-term focus on the upper side is 2653-2657 resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is 2620-2624 support.
Gold breaks new high againGold prices hit a high of 2509 last Friday and closed at 2506, crossing the 2500 mark for the first time in history. Last week, it closed steadily at the 2500 mark. Although it fell back at the opening of this week, the support of 2480 below was not broken, and the overall bullish thinking remains. If the gold price can remain above the key support level and the technical indicators show a positive trend, you can consider going long on dips; if the gold price approaches the important resistance level and the technical indicators show signs of overbought or divergence, you can consider going short on rallies.
- Operation strategy:
- Pay attention to the 2528 position. If it reaches the 2525 position, you can try to go short with a light position, and then watch the gold price go down to test the 2500 support. The stop loss of short orders can be set in the 2530-2535 range. You can go long directly at 2500, TP2530-40
XAUUSD: Continue To Sell, TP 2719-2713Recently, due to escalating international tensions, gold prices have soared, leaving Friday’s short positions in a losing state. From a technical perspective, short positions should have started to push back if it weren’t for the news. Currently, the MACD shows a continuous top divergence, but the ongoing war has rendered technical analysis somewhat powerless, which is a major reason for the predicament.
I believe that news will also have a buffering period, during which the market will return to technical patterns, creating crucial opportunities to turn losses into profits. In today’s U.S. session, there is a high probability of a downturn in gold, with my expectation around 2716, so short positions will remain my primary focus for trading today.
If your positions are also trapped, please reach out to me so we can work together to find a way out.
XAUUSD: + 1000 PIPS Buying Opportunity; One not to miss! Dear Traders,
As we predicted price to fell to 2630 region and reverse from there in our last trade setups, price did exactly that. Currently price is gathering enough liquidity and volume before it continues going up. The notable thing that I would like to point out here is we have big news coming up this week. So keep that in mind.
XAUUSD GOLD: Understanding Trend Shifts for Precision Entries👀👉 In this video, we explore the inner workings of market trends and, more importantly, how smart money manipulates price action to sweep liquidity, allowing them to place their orders and sustain the trend. We also showcase a powerful, free indicator from TradingView’s extensive toolset. Here's what we cover:
📊 Understanding Trends: How trends truly operate in the market.
💰 Smart Money Tactics: How institutional traders manipulate price action to sweep liquidity and execute large orders.
🔑 Key Levels: Identifying crucial accumulation and distribution zones to approach potential trade setups effectively.
🛠 TradingView Indicators: Learn how to access tools that help spot when price is overextended.
🔎 Market Structure: Discover how to locate resting liquidity and anticipate price reactions, understanding the role of liquidity in market movement.
📈 Trade Setups: Using a practical approach, we examine price interactions with liquidity, blending Wyckoff theory and ICT concepts for sharper trade decisions.
Disclaimer: This video is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Trading involves significant risks. Be sure to conduct your own research before making any decisions. Trade responsibly.
XAU/USD longs from 2,620.000 back up The outlook for Gold looks promising as we are now aligned with the pro trend. I’ve observed a clear character change to the upside, along with accumulation on the higher time frame, signaling that price is ready for a potential rally.
Currently, I’ll be waiting for price to retrace slightly, sweeping the untouched Asia low and tapping into my marked demand zone. At this level, I’ll be looking for confirmation on the lower time frames before targeting the trendline liquidity, particularly near the all-time highs (ATHs).
Confluences for Gold Buys:
- Market Structure: Both higher and lower time frames are strongly bullish.
- Wyckoff Accumulation: Price has formed a Wyckoff accumulation pattern on the higher time frame, indicating a trend shift.
- CHOCH: A change of character (CHOCH) has occurred on the 4-hour chart, confirming a directional shift.
- Liquidity: Significant upside liquidity in the form of trendline liquidity, with ATHs in view.
- Key Demand Zone: A strong daily demand zone caused the structure shift, making it my primary point of interest (POI) for the week.
P.S. If this demand zone fails, I’ll be looking for a potential long setup forming around the 10-hour demand zone. New ATHs possible?
XAUUSD: Sell@2634-2644
The bearish trend is still very obvious. Short-selling is the main method in the near future. If the price falls below 2600 in the short term, there will be a rebound of about $20. Before that, the rebound during the decline will not be too large, so if you have long positions, you must not be too greedy.
The Calm Before the Storm: A Waterfall-like Decline is Coming...
Today is Thursday, and with key data releases scheduled for New York trading hours and tomorrow’s much-anticipated NFP and unemployment figures, the market is far from quiet. My advice for today is to focus on selling, despite the possibility of some upward movement. However, from a daily chart perspective, the likelihood of a downturn is much stronger.
The 5-day moving average (MA5) has already turned downward, and it’s just a matter of time before the bearish trend takes hold. When it does, this won’t be just a simple correction like we saw last time. I’m predicting a waterfall-like decline.
Here’s my anticipated price action: a drop to around 2600, followed by a short rebound to approximately 2630, and finally, a deeper plunge to the 2570 region.
XAUUSD: NFP data and trading strategies for the next two weeks
Yesterday's gold movement largely aligned with expectations, with relatively limited fluctuations. However, today is unlikely to be as calm, as the market now faces two sharply contrasting scenarios:
If the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) and unemployment data are bullish for gold, and the price remains within its current range, we could see a rebound, testing or even breaking the previous high before retreating to current levels.
Alternatively, before or shortly after the data release, gold may retest the resistance near its previous high (or consolidate below the 2668 level) and then begin a significant decline, potentially forming a double-top pattern (with a break below 2620).
Disregarding the data, from a technical standpoint, the daily chart (D1) shows that gold is at a critical juncture. Recent price movements have hovered near key support levels, with some indicators clearly signaling weakness. A decisive move is imminent.
Scenario 1: Gold consolidates near support, gathering momentum and bolstering bullish sentiment, leading to a second upward push—similar to the rally initiated around the 2500 level. If the market demonstrates strength, prices could challenge the 2700-2710 zone, followed by a weekly close showing weakness. A significant pullback of no less than $100 could then ensue.
Scenario 2: Bullish momentum fades, and the bears start to take control. A double-top formation would likely emerge, targeting the 2625-2611 support zone. If bulls fail to hold these levels, the next bearish targets would be in the 2590-2570 region.
I hope this analysis provides valuable insight for your upcoming trades. Wishing you all the best of luck!
XAUUSD: The bears are about to strike back
In the past few days, I lost my grandmother, and it has been a deeply sad time. After attending her funeral today, I found myself reflecting on many things. Life is short, and whether we pursue fame or wealth, nothing is as important as the health and happiness of our loved ones. I sincerely hope that everyone here can live a healthy and joyful life, with all your wishes coming true.
Turning back to the gold market, after a significant rally, we’ve seen a pullback to test support before another rebound to resistance, followed by another decline. We’re now at a critical turning point. From the 30-minute chart, we can observe a pattern resembling a double top. If it breaks the trendline, a decline to the $2600 level seems inevitable—there’s no need to doubt it.
My mid-term target remains $2568-$2490, and I believe we may see this play out sooner than expected.