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Xauusdanalysis

After the Fed’s Rate Cut: Gold’s Price Action and What’s NextYesterday was another wildly volatile day for OANDA:XAUUSD , with prices dropping approximately 600 pips following the Fed's rate cut. After breaking below the 2645-2650 confluence support on Tuesday, the market entered a day of consolidation with a tight trading range. However, the calm didn’t last long... Yesterday's sharp decline took prices below the 2610-2615 technical support zone and even breached the critical 2600 level. Overnight, Gold rebounded back above 2600, but in my opinion, this recovery is likely a normal retracement and does not signal a bottom for the yellow metal. For bears, the sell zone begins at 2620 and extends slightly past 2630, accounting for the heightened volatility. This area presents an opportunity to look for short entries. The initial target for this move would be yesterday's low, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Gold drop further toward the 2525 key support level in the near future. As long as prices remain below the 2650-2660 resistance range, the outlook for XauUsd stays firmly bearish .
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Mihai_Iacob
2
XAU/USD 19 December 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bearish. -> Internal: Bullish. Analysis/Intraday expectation remains the same as analysis dated 16 December 2024. Price is clearly unable to target weak internal. This is due to the fact that Daily and Weekly Timeframe remain in bearish pullback phase. Price Action Analysis: Technically price is to target weak internal priced at 2,721.420. Price has sweeped liquidity, for two possible reasons. 1. To assist price to complete bearish pullback phase, react at either discount of internal 50% or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high. 2. To assist Daily and H4 TF's to complete bearish pullback phase with price to print a bearish iBOS and target strong internal low priced at 2,536.855. Intraday Expectation: Intraday expectation and alternative scenario as per points 1 and 2. Note: With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bearish. -> Internal: Bearish. Price Action Analysis: Yesterday's analysis played out as expected with price targeting weak internal low, printing a bearish iBOS. Price has printed a bullish CHoCH, indicating, but not confirming bullish pullback phase initiation. We are now trading within an established internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price is currently trading at premium of internal 50% EQ where we could see a reaction. Price could potentially trade up to M15 supply level before targeting weak internal low priced at 2,583.915 Note: With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
1216 Weekly outlook GOLDHello traders, December highlights, the last heavyweight data week before Christmas, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates! The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and economic projections this Thursday (03:00), followed by a press conference at 03:30 led by Chairman Powell. Currently, market consensus indicates a 97% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points at its meeting on December 17-18. Importantly, the market expects that after this rate cut, the Fed may begin to pause rate cuts in early 2025. Therefore, Powell's remarks and the latest economic forecasts will be very significant, as the Fed may slow down the pace of rate cuts. With this trend expectation, the inverse correlation of a weakening gold and strengthening dollar has already re-emerged. The latest daily chart of gold compared to the dollar shows that the dollar has consistently remained above the daily EMA and is currently in a consolidation phase, poised for an upward move. Gold is supplemented with this latest daily chart from Monday, which shows a double-top bearish pattern. Currently, the bears are dominant, and the daily candlestick chart is running below the EMA. Scott Rubner, a senior capital flow expert at Goldman Sachs, may provide some insights into capital flows before Christmas: First, the impact of global, especially the Federal Reserve's, interest rate cut expectations. With the market generally expecting a 97% chance of a rate cut at the Fed's December meeting, this could stimulate investors' risk appetite. Rate cuts usually mean lower borrowing costs, which promotes consumption and investment, thereby driving up the stock market. Second, the so-called annual "Santa Claus rally." The "Santa Claus rally" refers to the seasonal rise in the market at the end of each year, driven by holiday spirit and investor optimism. If the market's expectations for rate cuts are confirmed, there is indeed a higher likelihood that the S&P 500 index will rebound in the last few trading days of 2024. Third, the impact of year-end corporate buyback plans on market capital flows. Corporate stock buybacks are an effective means of driving up stock prices. When companies announce large-scale buyback plans, the market usually interprets this as confidence in the company's prospects, which also boosts investor confidence. It is reported that U.S. companies have approved stock buybacks worth $1 trillion by 2025, which could also drive the stock market significantly higher! As risk assets strengthen, investors' risk appetite typically increases. Gold does not generate interest or dividends, so the opportunity cost of holding gold rises. Investors are likely to prefer allocating funds to higher-risk, higher-return assets like stocks rather than traditional safe-haven assets like gold. A weakening of gold before 2025 is highly probable. **Gold** The bullish plan for gold laid out before last Thursday has completed its trading plan, with all profit targets reached. The trading plan from last Thursday aimed to continue the previous upward trend, looking for new bullish entry opportunities. 2690 was identified as a support level for entering long positions, but it became a resistance area on Friday. After no bullish entry signals appeared on the 1-hour chart on Thursday, the updated trading plan based on the latest 4-hour chart is as follows: **Friday 4-hour chart trading plan:** Before the U.S. market opens, look for 1-hour entry signals to short gold. TP1: 2648 TP2: 2618 TP3: 2575 Currently, the first target of 2648 has been reached; it is best to move the stop loss to the entry position and continue holding the short position. Considering the above 4-hour chart, wait for new consolidation signals; before this week's critical data and time points, gold will likely continue to decline, so patience is key! GOOD LUCK! LESS IS MORE!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FUNTRADER-Vera
XAUUSD - sells in play?Here is our in-depth view and update on XAUUSD . Potential opportunities and what to look out for. This is a long-term overview on the pair updated from the previous one. Last time, we took a step back and took a look at XAUUSD from a bigger perspective (H4 time-frame). We are still using H4 to show you the sells we have in play. XAUUSD is currently trading at around 2670s . If you remember our previous long-term view on OANDA:XAUUSD you should remember that after hitting the top of the area at around 2714 (a bit higher) we were automatically looking for sells. We are currently holding a few sell positions at 2680s as the price failed to break higher. Personal opinion: The direction for now is bearish in our opinion. We are looking for sells and we do believe gold could see some massive sell-offs in December before the year of 2024 ends. KEY NOTES - XAUUSD completed the predicted long-term move to the upside. - XAUUSD sells were called at the top of the area (2714). - XAUUSD failed to break higher and is following the long-term analysis. Happy trading! FxPocket
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FxPocket
3
GOLD/XAUUSD UPDATED LONGTERM VIEWHello traders, we might see a 3000 per ounce of GOLD/XAUUSD end of year or next year. This is not a financial advice, I see on Weekly candle only but the chart is on lower timeframe. WE wait below the zone. those previous idea still valid. if you can wait we wait the zone for LONGS. This is only my view. Lets see how this idea plays. For more Longterm views on FOREX, CRYPTOS or other Currency follow for more. youre here for free see it for yourself. Thank you for some people still following me even thou Im not totally active on posting on charts. Im focus on Longterm view. ciao......
TVC:GOLDLong
by D1GITALTRADES
Smart Gold Trading Strategy: Catching the Next Big Move! Hello, traders! 👋✨ Welcome to a new market analysis. Today, we’re diving into a trade on gold (XAU/USD) on the 1-hour chart. 🚀 This precious metal continues to provide great opportunities, and this time is no different. I’ve decided to go long at the 2670 level, and here are the details of my strategy: - Entry (Long): 2670 - Take Profit (TP): 2734 - Stop Loss (SL): 2606 This trade is supported by technical analysis. The price appears to be holding a key support level, and indicators are signaling potential for an upward move. The stop-loss is set at 2606 to protect against unexpected reversals, while the take-profit target at 2734 aligns with a strong resistance zone. The risk-to-reward ratio here looks very promising. 📈 While my target is set, I’m always ready to adjust. If I see an opportunity to take profits earlier, I won’t hesitate to act. Staying flexible is key in trading! 📊🚀 What do you think of this setup? Are you trading gold this week? Let me know in the comments, and don’t forget to like and subscribe for more trading insights! 🔥 Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk and consult a professional before making investment decisions.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by MetalsMine
Gold Analysis==>>PumpingToday, U.S. Retail Sales figures were released. Retail sales increased by 0.7% , surpassing the forecast of 0.6% . However, Core Retail Sales rose by only 0.2% , below the anticipated 0.4% . These figures indicate continued strength in U.S. consumer spending, which can lead to a stronger U.S. dollar ( TVC:DXY ) . A stronger dollar typically exerts downward pressure on gold prices, as gold is priced in dollars, making it more expensive for international investors when the dollar appreciates. However, it's important to note that multiple factors influence gold prices, including upcoming Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates and global economic conditions. ---------------------------------------------- Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) continued to fall as I expected and is currently moving through the Support zone($2,642-$2,620) and the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) . According to Elliott's wave theory , Gold seems to be completing wave 5 . Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD+) between Consecutive Valleys. I expect Gold to start rising again from the PRZ and Support lines and attack the Resistance lines . ⚠️Note: If Gold breaks the Support zone($2,642-$2,620), we can expect more dumps.⚠️ 🔔Be sure to follow the updated ideas.🔔 Gold Analyze ( XAUUSD ), 15-minute time frame ⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by pejman_zwin
4
XauUsd- New leg down towards 2610 support?In my Friday analysis, I highlighted that while the 2660-2665 zone is a technical support, it is too obvious and very likely to fall. This prediction came true as the week closed with Gold trading below this level, forming a strongly bearish daily candle. Additionally, a Pin Bar from the 2700+ resistance zone appeared on the weekly chart, reinforcing the bearish outlook. During the Asian session last night, the price tested the ascending trendline, and as of now, Gold is trading at 2656, hinting at a potential rebound following the 800-pip drop from its recent peak. Looking ahead, if a deeper rebound occurs, the 2680 zone will be a key level for bears to monitor. This area presents an ideal shorting opportunity given its favorable risk-to-reward setup. At the moment, I’m out of the market, waiting to sell into signs of weakness, with 2610 support as my target.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Mihai_Iacob
18
XAU/USD 18 December 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bearish. -> Internal: Bullish. Analysis/Intraday expectation remains the same as analysis dated 16 December 2024. Price is clearly unable to target weak internal. This is due to the fact that Daily and Weekly Timeframe remain in bearish pullback phase. Price Action Analysis: Technically price is to target weak internal priced at 2,721.420. Price has sweeped liquidity, for two possible reasons. 1. To assist price to complete bearish pullback phase, react at either discount of internal 50% or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high. 2. To assist Daily and H4 TF's to complete bearish pullback phase with price to print a bearish iBOS and target strong internal low priced at 2,536.855. Intraday Expectation: Intraday expectation and alternative scenario as per points 1 and 2. Note: With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bearish. -> Internal: Bearish. Price Action Analysis: I have been mapping systematically. Since last analysis, price has been printing erratically, printing a bearish iBOS, followed by a double bullish iBOS and most recently a bearish iBOS. Price is trading within an established internal structure. Intraday Expectation: Price is currently trading at premium of internal 50% EQ and has minimally tapped in to M15 supply zone. Price is expected to target weak internal low priced at 2,642.830 Note: With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
#XAUUSD 1HXAUUSD Based on the 1-hour analysis, I am observing the resistance zone around 2660.00 and 2665.00 for potential selling opportunities. Target levels: 2655.00, 2640.00, 2625.00, 2614.00, and 2605.00. Key pattern: Bearish engulfing near the resistance area. Important note: Avoid placing any pending orders at this time. Wait for strong bearish confirmation signals before entering a trade. If the price successfully closes above 2672.00, it is recommended to avoid taking sell positions.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by PIPSFIGHTER