Gold Market Update: Indecision Dominates Ahead of FEDYesterday, OANDA:XAUUSD broke below the key confluence support at 2645.
However, the drop lacked meaningful follow-through. After reaching a local low at 2633, the price reversed and closed right at the confluence level.
As of now, gold remains virtually unchanged from Friday's close. Monday saw a spike up to 2665, while yesterday marked a dip to 2633, reflecting market indecision.
Technical Perspective:
At the time of writing, gold is trading below this critical level, currently at 2643. If the break below support proves genuine, bears will likely target the 2610-2615 zone, as highlighted in my previous analyses.
Conversely, if the price climbs back above 2655, the recent dip would be considered a false breakout, shifting the focus to the upside, with the 2680 zone as the next target.
FED's Influence:
The market awaits clarity from the Federal Reserve’s announcement and press conference today, which could provide direction for gold in the coming days.
Xauusdanalysis
Gold Influenced by Various Factors, Focus on The Fed's DecisionGold prices need to clear $2,664-$2,664 levels for investors to gain control of the short-term market.
From a technical perspective, any subsequent up-move might face hurdles near the weekly highs, around the $2,664-$2,666 area touched on Monday, ahead of the $2,677 area.
A sustained strength beyond the latter should allow Gold prices to reclaim the $2,700 round figure.
The up-move could extend towards the monthly swing highs, around the $2,726 zone, above which XAU/USD is likely to resume its upward trajectory.
On the flip side, the overnight swing low, around the $2,633 region, now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the monthly trough, around the $2,614 zone.
This is followed by the $2,600 level, which, if broken decisively, will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and make Gold prices vulnerable to extending the recent sharp decline from the one-month highs touched last week.
XAUUSD TODAY CHART OUTLOOKBased on the analysis of this chart, the market demonstrates a cyclical trend of rising and falling movements. This pattern of fluctuations presents opportunities for significant earnings, as it allows investors to capitalize on both upward and downward trends. Understanding these market dynamics and strategically timing investments during these shifts can lead to substantial financial gains. By leveraging this predictable volatility, individuals or institutions can position themselves to maximize profits in both bullish and bearish market conditions.
Trend analysis and strategy, continue to look at reboundGold bottomed out and rebounded on the daily line, MA10/7-day moving averages were flat at 2661/70, and the RSI indicator was running at the 50 value of the middle axis. The short-term four-hour chart bottomed out and rebounded, and the Bollinger Band lower track 2630 was supported to a certain extent. The hourly moving average golden cross opened upward, and the RSI indicator bottom diverged and stood above the middle axis. The callback during today's trading day is still mainly for low-price longs, and then consider selling.
After yesterday's decline, gold continued to return to volatility. After today, the NY market will usher in the Fed's interest rate decision, so gold will most likely continue to fluctuate before the Fed's interest rate decision, and then wait for the Fed's interest rate decision to decide the winner.
The 1-hour moving average of gold is still in a short position. The gold rebound still focuses on the resistance near the last high of 2667 and continues to see a volatile decline. Gold rebounds above 2660 and can continue to be short. Pay attention to the 2633 first-line support below. Gold fluctuates in this range and waits for the Fed's interest rate decision before choosing a direction.
First support: 2640, second support: 2633, third support: 2615
First resistance: 2658, second resistance: 2667, third resistance: 2678
Trading strategy:
Before the US interest rate decision, sell high and buy low in the range of 2633~2667
TRADING STRATEGY FOR DECEMBER 18 XAUUSDGold prices fell on December 17 due to:
Stronger USD (+0.1%), making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies.
Higher 10-year bond yields, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold.
Key Takeaways from the Fed:
A 0.25% rate cut is expected on December 18, but the likelihood of further cuts in January 2025 remains low (only 18%).
US Economic Impact:
November retail sales exceeded expectations, fueling inflation concerns. This suggests the Fed may pause further rate cuts in January 2025.
Gold is strongly supported by important economic data this week. From a technical perspective, after recent sharp declines, gold has shown signs of reversal from the 2633.xx resistance area, rebounding toward 2650.xx.
Today's Main Trend: Focus on long-term buy opportunities at strong sell points. Use sell scalping strategies and observe reactions to trade more effectively.
INTRADAY TRADING STRATEGY
SELL SCALP:
Entry: 2661 - 2663
Stop Loss (SL): 2666
Take Profit (TP): 2655
BUY SCALP:
Entry: 2634 - 2632
SL: 2629
TP: 2640
BUY ZONE:
Entry: 2618 - 2620
SL: 2615
TP: ???
SELL ZONE:
Entry: 2672 - 2674
SL : 2677
TP: 2664
Buying opportunity at 2643-2628Gold is currently facing some selling pressure near 2648, but the overall trend remains bullish with a high probability of breaking through. In the coming days, prices are likely to rise above 2660, making buying the primary trading direction for now.
In a weak market, gold may fluctuate multiple times within the 2643-2628 range to build up momentum. In a strong market, prices could rally after just one retest today.
However, there’s also a possibility of breaking below the support. If that happens, the likelihood of a short-term drop to 2580 will increase significantly.
Go long gold near 2633 as scheduledBros, I have been suggesting that gold is likely to continue to fall to the 2635-2630 area in the past two days. At present, gold has fallen back to this area as expected. We have made a lot of money in gold short trading in the past two days! Congratulations to those friends who followed my trading strategy!
At present, the lowest price of gold has reached around 2633, so the support of the 2635-2630 area is effective in the short term, and gold has failed to fall below this area several times during the decline, so this area has become an important defensive position for bulls in the short term, so there should be some buying funds here, whether it is to seize control or to play between the long and short sides, the bulls should perform well in this range.
So in terms of short-term trading, I prefer to start long gold near 2633, and I have already done so. Moreover, there is still strong support in the 2625-2620 area below. If gold continues to fall, I will consider adding positions to long gold in the 2625-2620 area again.
Bros, I have already started to go long on gold. Are you optimistic about the rebound of gold? If you want to learn more detailed trading ideas and get more trading signals, you can choose to join the channel at the bottom of the article to make trading no longer difficult and make making money a pleasure!
Gold range fluctuations, short-term profit strategyOn the daily level, the pressure is at 2665-2675, and the support below is around 2640. If it continues to weaken, the rebound may not be too large, but it is a small deviation, so it is not easy to chase the short for the time being, waiting for the rebound to go short. If it breaks 2640 further below, then it will be a small rebound and go short, but for now, it is still tentatively set at 2640-2675 for the beginning of the week! Overall, today's short-term operation strategy for gold is to focus on rebound shorting and callback longing. The short-term focus on the upper side is 2670-2675 resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is 2640-2643 support.
XAUUSD Gold (XAU/USD) puts pressure on daily lows and trades below $2,660 on Friday’s early American session. The US Dollar (USD) reclaims its leadership ahead of the weekly close, helped by rising US Treasury yieldsGold price faced rejection at higher levels on Thursday and turned south before finding support at the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,671 early Friday.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also witnessed a renewed upside while holding well above the 50 level.
If Gold price resumes the recovery momentum, it could retest the multi-week high of $2,726, above which 2,750, the confluence of the psychological barrier and the November 5 high, will act as a tough nut to crack.
A failure to defend the 50-day SMA support at $2,671 on a daily candlestick closing basis will prompt sellers to target the 21-day SMA at $2,650 once again.
#XAUUSD/GOLD 4HXAUUSD 4-Hour Analysis
The XAUUSD (Gold) pair has broken below a significant trendline support on the 4-hour chart, signaling a shift in momentum to the downside. This breakdown indicates increased selling pressure and provides a strong opportunity for bearish positions.
Technical Outlook:
Pattern: Trendline Support Line Breakdown
Forecast: Bearish (Sell Opportunity)
Entry Strategy: Enter a sell position after confirming the breakdown with bearish price action signals, such as a retest of the broken support line acting as resistance or the formation of lower highs and lower lows.
Traders should monitor indicators like RSI for confirmation of bearish momentum or MACD for a bearish crossover. Risk management is essential, with stop-loss orders placed above the retest level and profit targets set at key support zones below.
XAUUSD: 17/12 Market Analysis and StrategyTechnical analysis of gold
Daily resistance 2725, support below 2627
Four-hour resistance 2673, support below 2627
Gold operation suggestions: Gold is currently in a volatile situation. As for the current trend, the two consecutive days of retreat last week have basically destroyed the previous upward trend. The daily short-term moving average has also formed a suppression pattern. The previous support level is also likely to be converted into top pressure, forming a suppression effect. In terms of operation, it is still treated as a rebound short.
From the 4-hour analysis, the upper short-term resistance continues to focus on the NY market high of 2662 last Friday. The intraday pullback relies on this position to continue to be short and follow the trend to fall. Pay attention to the short-term support of 2640 below, and focus on the support of 2627.
BUY:2645near
BUY:2627near
The strategy only provides trading directions.
Since it is not a real-time trading guide, please use a small SL to test the signal.
Today's trading range is 2643~2664Gold closed higher on the daily chart, but the price still closed below the MA10 daily average of 2660. The RS1 indicator was adjusted at the middle axis, and the daily Bollinger Bands gradually narrowed. The short-term four-hour chart fell into a shock adjustment around the 43/64 range, and the moving average closed. The hourly chart Bollinger Bands closed, and short-term trading was still the main focus during the day, with shocks and sideways trading!
Gold was still in a shock repair market yesterday, but it eventually fell under pressure. Gold was still in a bearish shock overall, and the rebound was still an opportunity to continue to be short!
The gold 1-hour moving average was still a dead cross downward short arrangement, and the gold adjustment has not ended. Gold fell under pressure at 2665 yesterday, indicating that gold is still in a strong resistance zone above 2660, and it is still selling at highs under pressure at 2665.
First support: 2648, second support: 2643, third support: 2631
First resistance: 2660, second resistance: 2667, third resistance: 2678
Gold will Go Down to PRZ!!!Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) seems to have managed to break the Support zone($2,670-$2,653) . It is currently completing a pullback to this zone, so the pullback pattern appears to be a rising wedge pattern .
According to Elliott's wave theory , Gold seems to have completed wave 4 .
I expect Gold to continue falling to the next Support zone($2,642-$2,620) and the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) .
⚠️Note: If Gold breaks the Resistance zone($2,665-$2,662) and resistance line, we can expect gold to rise further.⚠️
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Gold Analyze ( XAUUSD ), 15-minute time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
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XAU/USD 17 December 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis/Intraday expectation remains the same as analysis dated 16 December 2024.
Price is clearly unable to target weak internal. This is due to the fact that Daily and Weekly Timeframe remain in bearish pullback phase.
Price Action Analysis:
Technically price is to target weak internal priced at 2,721.420. Price has sweeped liquidity,
for two possible reasons.
1. To assist price to complete bearish pullback phase, react at either discount of internal 50% or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high.
2. To assist Daily and H4 TF's to complete bearish pullback phase with price to print a bearish iBOS and target strong internal low priced at 2,536.855.
Intraday Expectation:
Intraday expectation and alternative scenario as per points 1 and 2.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Analysis/Intraday expectation remains the same as analysis dated 16 December 2024.
Price Action Analysis:
Since last analysis dated 13 December 2024, price has printed a double bearish iBOS
Bullish CHoCH has been printed, therefore, we are now trading within an established internal structure.
Intraday Expectation:
Price has tapped in to M15 supply zone. Technically price to target weak internal low priced at 2,643.595.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
XAU/USD Strategy: Selling Rallies Amid Bearish StructureIn my analysis of XAU/USD yesterday, I highlighted that after the 800-pip drop, a rebound was likely. However, given the weekly Pin Bar and the bearish daily structure, I emphasized that any upward move should be viewed as a correction and an opportunity to sell.
Indeed, the market did see a rebound, but it was weak and short-lived. After reaching the 2665 zone, the price reversed to the downside and ended the day with minimal change.
Currently, the price sits at 2652, with the recent lows now acting as confluent support, reinforced by the rising trendline from the recent bottom. A decisive break below this support zone would shift focus to the next key level at 2610-2615.
My strategy remains unchanged: I continue to look for selling opportunities on rallies.