XAUUSD: 2/12 Today's Market Analysis and StrategyGold technical analysis
Daily resistance 2700, support below 2580
Four-hour resistance 2653, support below 2627
Gold operation suggestions: Last Friday, the technical side of gold prices quickly hit the 2666 mark in the Asian and European sessions and fluctuated sideways. The US session was suppressed and closed below the 2660 mark. Today, the gold price fell directly at the opening of the Asian session and broke through the 2650 mark and continued to fall back to the vicinity of 2640. After rebounding for two consecutive trading days last week, the short-term gold price entered a suppressed adjustment pattern.
At present, from the 4-hour trend, the pattern of continuous rise in gold in the early stage has basically ended, and the short position will continue to ferment. From the perspective of the market, after the gold price fell below 2645, the original support point turned into the first reference pressure. Relying on this position, the main short position continued to fall downward. The lower target position first focused on whether the 2627 mark could be broken. If the 1H line breaks through, it can be further shorted. If 2627 is not broken, it will still maintain a volatile operation. The short-term watershed between long and short strength is 2639. Before the daily level breaks through and stands at this position, any pullback is a short-selling opportunity. Keep participating in the trend
SELL: 2639near SL: 2643
SELL: 2624near SL: 2627
The strategy only provides trading directions.
Since it is not a real-time trading guide, please use a small SL to test the signal.
Xauusdanalysis
Gold Market Analysis 12/2At the start of the Asian session today, gold continued its downward movement, reaching back to the previous low near 2620. Typically, previous lows often provide some support. Today, we have seen multiple candlesticks with lower wicks at this level, indicating that the support is holding well at the moment.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support:
2615 remains a key level of support. If this level holds, a rebound is expected.
Resistance:
The resistance zone is between 2635-2643. Watch for potential price action around this area, as it could signal either a break higher or a reversal.
Market Outlook:
Given the current support at 2620 and the signs of a potential rebound, I expect a move higher, with the next target being the 2635-2643 resistance zone.
Gold filled the opening gapGold has successfully filled the opening gap and is now backtesting the hourly breakout that originated from the November 14th low. This critical retest of the breakout level serves as a potential turning point. With the gap closed and the backtest in play, the technical structure suggests that downside momentum could soon resume. Based on these factors, I am expecting gold to start its decline from this point...
XAUUSD Signal for this week.Gold found Buyer and after test high timeframe support.
Here is my position setup.
Open long position at 2644.56
Stop loss at 2637.18
Take profit with trail stop loss.
I am using at the moment broken FVG and Fibonacci
Always manage your risk don't risk in this trade more than 3.5 %
Gold Hits 2635 Target, Next Focus on 2646 ResistanceDuring today's Asian session, I shared a long strategy with a target of 2635-2643. Currently, the price has risen above 2635, and we have secured our first profit of the week. Congratulations to all who followed the strategy!
The price is still on an upward trend, and a rise to around 2640 should be achievable. At that point, we need to pay attention to the resistance near 2646 and observe if it breaks. A slight pullback is expected, with key support around 2632-2628. If the support holds, we could see the price push back above 2650.
XAUUSD Top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
XAU/USD 02 December 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Bias/analysis remains the same as analysis dated 25 November 2024.
Price Action Analysis:
As mentioned in yesterday's analysis dated 24 November 2024, whereby price was expected to print a bearish CHoCH. This is how price printed.
Currently, price is trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price is anticipated to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, which is marked in blue, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 2,721.420.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Today's analysis and bias will remain the same as analysis dated 26 November 2024.
Price Action Analysis:
Intraday expectation and analysis dated 25 November 2024 printed as anticipated, with price successfully printing a bearish iBOS after targeting the weak internal low.
A correction from yesterday's intraday expectation: instead of targeting the weak internal high, price was expected to target the weak internal low.
Price has since printed a bullish CHoCH, indicating, but not confirming, bullish pullback phase. We are now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price is anticipated to trade up to either the internal 50% EQ or the M15 supply zone before targeting the weak internal low at 2,605.310.
Alternative Scenario:
The H4 timeframe has printed a bearish CHoCH, indicating the initiation of a bearish pullback phase coupled with the fact that H4 TF is now trading in discount of internal 50%. However, this suggests that bearish momentum on M15 may face limitations as the broader H4 phase unfolds.
Note:
Given the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persistent geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is likely to remain elevated. Traders should remain cautious and prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
XAUUSDHere is our quick view and update on XAUUSD . Potential opportunities and what to look out for. This is a quick overview on the pair.
XAUUSD is currently trading at around 2630s.
If we break our KL (Key Level) 2624 , we could revisit 2604 and our target 2590 . Safe sell entries would be at the break of the KL 2624 . Be careful of possible pullbacks to the upside and breaks of 2640 .
Personal opinion:
XAUUSD has tried to break below 2624 several times last week but failed to do so. A clear break below 2624 would confirm the direction and based on that we could take advantage of the sells on gold and potentially hit our 2590 target.
KEY NOTES
- XAUUSD breaking below 2624 would confirm sells.
- Breaks below 2604 would result in sells, down to 2590 would result in even lower prices.
- Breaks above 2640 could confirm buys.
Happy trading!
FxPocket
Scenario on XAUUSDOn the chart we have a level marked around which the price has been hovering all the time. This level is located around the price of 2660-2640. A correction is forming which is still not complete for me. If it cannot break through this resistance at this moment, it is quite likely that the price may correct somewhere towards the level of 2500 or even a lower price. For me, this market is still undecided and for now I am staying out of the position. If what I described happens, I will take a short.
Gold Price Analysis: Bearish Flag Forming Amid Choppy RecoveryAfter Monday's significant drop, the price of gold began a correction yesterday, reaching my first resistance zone at 2640 before resuming its decline.
However, gold found support around 2620 and started recovering again. The price action now appears to be forming a bearish continuation flag, suggesting that the next major move could be another downturn.
In the meantime, gold may continue to rise in a choppy fashion toward the next key level at 2660.
My strategy is to sell rallies near this zone, targeting a drop to 2590 while monitoring the newly established support at 2620.
XAUUSD LAST WEEK FEDERAL RESERVESLast week, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure was the newly announced personal consumption expenditure index (PCE). PCE increased 2.8% over the past 12 months, higher than expected.
The US central bank indicated in its latest meeting minutes that higher-than-expected inflation could force it to adjust the pace of its easing cycle. The market still predicts the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December and will continue cutting until early 2025.
In addition to Trump's social media posts, markets will focus on key economic data this week such as jobs data. If the employment situation is not as expected, gold prices may increase again. A stronger labor market could make an interest rate cut unlikely this month.
XAUUSD Sell Limit OrderHi everyone. I think we're switching from bullish to bearish in 1H TF, and I think this area has it's potential to set an order.
Have a good trading week and let's see what happens...
Dear traders, please support my ideas with your likes and comments to motivate me to publish more signals and analysis for you.
Best Regards
Navid Nazarian
Analysis of the Downward Trend in Gold Prices This WeekGold prices remained stable above $2,600 in the past week, primarily supported by increasing geopolitical tensions. However, after Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election, gold still faced pressure to limit its price increase, as the U.S. dollar is expected to be supported by Trump's win.
Regarding gold's recent recovery, after the release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data earlier this week, which met expectations, market anticipation for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has risen, driving gold prices higher. Currently, the market is pricing in about a 66% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December, a significant increase from just over 50% a week ago.
Geopolitical tensions in Europe, caused by Russia's missile attack on Ukraine, have also provided support for safe-haven assets like gold. The Israeli military announced on Thursday that their air force had struck a facility in southern Lebanon used by Hezbollah to store medium-range missiles, as both sides accused each other of violating the ceasefire agreement. On Thursday, Russia launched its second major attack this month on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, causing widespread power outages in the country.
Gold OANDA:XAUUSD is generally seen as a safe investment during periods of economic and geopolitical instability.
Gold prices have dropped about 3% this month, hitting a two-month low on November 14. This is mainly due to the strengthening U.S. Dollar since Trump's election, and his tariff policies, which are seen as likely to push inflation higher, thus slowing down the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting cycle.
Next week, the U.S. will release key economic data, including job openings, ADP employment reports, and non-farm payrolls, which could provide direction on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook.
Important Economic Data to Watch Next Week
Monday: ISM Manufacturing PMI
Wednesday: ADP Employment Report, ISM Services PMI, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will participate in a panel discussion at the New York Times DealBook Summit
Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims
Friday: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report, University of Michigan Preliminary Consumer Sentiment
Technical Outlook for XAUUSD (Gold Price)
Gold is attempting to recover but remains limited by the 50% Fibonacci level and the EMA21, as pointed out in yesterday's publication. In terms of overall structure, gold still leans towards a bearish outlook, with the main trend indicated by the price channel (a) and resistance from the EMA21. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also not yet surpassed the 50 level. Therefore, in terms of trend and momentum, gold is more likely to face downward pressure rather than rise.
As long as gold stays within the price channel (a), it does not meet the technical conditions for a long-term price increase, so any rallies should be viewed as short-term recoveries.
In the short term, if gold drops below the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level, the next target for a decline would be around the $2,600 level.
In conclusion, the technical outlook for gold on the daily chart is bearish, with the following key levels to watch:
Support: $2,634 – $2,606 – $2,600
Resistance: $2,663 – $2,693
However, traders must note that in the context of geopolitical conflicts, technical structures can be broken very quickly due to sudden, impactful events. Therefore, the risk will be higher in the short term.
This concludes the article. Henry wishes for a healthy, joyful, and happy weekend.
XAUUSD strong selling setup Gold pulls away from daily highs, holds near $2,650
Gold retreats from the daily high it set above $2,660 but manages to stay afloat in positive territory at around $2,650, with the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield losing more than 1% on the day. Despite Friday's rebound, XAU/USD is set to register losses for the week.Technically, Gold buyers are fighting back control, justified by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) briefly recapturing the 50 level.
However, with the Bear Cross still playing out, Gold price’s bullish conviction could likely peter out.
If Gold buyers fail to find acceptance above the 50-day SMA at $2,670 on a daily closing basis, sellers will likely jump back, sending the bright metal back toward the previous day’s low of $2,621.
The next support aligns at the weekly low of $2,605, below which a drop toward the 100-day SMA at $2,573 cannot be ruled out. The in-line with expectations US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data released on Wednesday failed to deter Fed rate cut expectations as markets now pricing in about a 63% chance of a December Fed rate reduction, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows, up from about 55% seen a week ago.
The dovish sentiment around the Fed’s next policy action continues to underpin the non-interest-bearing Gold price.
Drop it Like it's HotRight now price is in a much larger descending channel - indicating we are in an overall down trend. We can see from looking left there is what most retail traders would call a demand zone in anticipation for the market to push higher.
HOWEVER, keeping in mind the higher TF (Daily) and the fact that "the trend is our friend" we can see that price is in fact in this downward descending channel. I will only be looking for SHORT positions this week, especially towards the end of this week with the LAST NFP of 2024. Man, time flew by!
So far price is pushing pretty aggressively towards the downside and I will look for further confirmations (on the lower TF - 15m & 5m) for my exact entries. Thanks for checking out my idea and Happy trading!!
Gold is in the bullish directionHello Traders
In This Chart GOLD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET
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This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
THE KOG REPORT THE KOG REPORT:
I last week’s KOG Report we wanted the lower support level to hold 2710, give us the push up into the higher resistance level where we said watch 2720 and 2730 which needs to break above. It’s those higher levels, in particular 2750 we wanted to attempt that short trade back down into the lower levels. From the open, price resisted 2720, failed to break and gave us the red box trades down into the support levels.
We then had to switch to level-to-level trading due to the ranging which worked well, but we only managed 5 out of 6 Gold targets out of a combined 16 targets completed across the other pairs.
During the week we updated traders with the plans and managed guide them up from the lows to where we closed the week.
It was another successful and consistent week; however, the market didn’t move completely how we wanted it to. The Election special chart however, still on track and working well with our view from the start of November.
So, what can we expect in the week ahead?
Ok, it’s going to be another choppy week, trades are most likely going to be again level-to-level on the red boxes which we will share with the wider community as and when we can. We have the level of 2670 sticking out as resistance with the support level 2650-55 being the key level. With NFP on Friday we would expect most of the movement during the early part of the week before they then settle pre-event into a small range. The weekly key level here is 2620 which will need to break for price to go lower.
We’ll start the week again looking for the higher levels 2662-5 and extension of the move into 2670, if held, an opportunity to short may be available into the lower support level 2650 and below that 2640. We need price to hold above the 2640 region in order to continue higher into the 2675 and above that 2678 price points, so please keep an eye on the support levels.
On the flip, if we continue downside from the open, we will be looking at the 2640-5 region to hold, and if it does, an opportunity to long is on the horizon into the 2665 and above that 2675 region.
KOG’s Bias for the week:
Bullish above 2640 with targets above 2655, 2665 and above that 2670
Bearish on break of 2640 with targets below 2635 and below that 2620-15
RED BOXES:
Break above 2652 for 2660, 2665, 2670 and 2675 in extension of the move
Break below 2640 for 2635, 2630 and 2617 in extension of the move
As usual, we will update traders through the week with KOG’s bias of the day and the Red boxes which have proven to work extremely well on not only gold, but also any other pair you wish to apply them to together with our basket of indicators.
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
XAUUSD: 1800+' Buying Opportunity One Not To Miss! Dear traders,
XAUUSD currently making AB=CD pattern where A to B pattern has already been created, we are currently in a verge of creating C to D move. The fundamental also support our view, the price of the gold drop in a wake of elections announcement. US presidential result led the decline in the gold prices as DXY prices rose up significantly. However, as the market settles we are seeing price going back to its previous trend. Please be extra cautious while trading gold.
Good luck!