XAU is up strongly! 2640XAU / USD trend forecast September 24, 2024
On Monday, Fed regional presidents noted rising risks in the labor market but opposed a 50 bps rate cut, signaling a cautious approach for future meetings. This slowed the XAU/USD rally. However, escalating tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, with the US sending more troops to the Middle East, could boost Gold prices as risk appetite declines.
Based on M45, NEW ATH to set up SELL signal
/// SELL XAU : zone 2639-2642
SL: 2647
TP: 50 - 150 - 250 pips (2617)
Safe and profitable trading
Xauusdbuy
XAUUSD: Mid-Term Target Set Below 2550
Gold's upward trend has noticeably slowed as it approaches the 2630 level, which is likely to act as a new resistance zone. Before confirming any further upside potential, it is crucial to see a retest of the 2600 support level. Until this support is validated, the recommended strategy is to focus on high-level sell trades.
If the 2600 support is confirmed, it may present a buying opportunity. However, if the support is breached, selling into any rebound should continue to be the dominant strategy, with long positions only used as a secondary approach. In the medium term, I maintain a bearish bias, with downside targets in the 2530-2500 range.
Gold 1H Analysis: Bullish Reversal at Key Support ZoneGold has found solid support at a critical price level on the 1H timeframe. This support coincides with the lower boundary of the FIB cloud, which often acts as a dynamic support zone in trending markets. The recent price action indicates a potential reversal from this level, suggesting an opportunity for a long position as buyers step in.
Technical Setup:
• Support Zone: The price has reacted positively at the lower edge of the FIBcloud indicating a possible bottoming pattern in the short term.
• Candlestick Formation: A bullish engulfing pattern has formed at the support area, reflecting increased buying interest and potential upward momentum.
• Trend Analysis: The broader trend remains bullish, and the current pullback to the support zone provides a low-risk entry for continuation higher.
Trade Idea:
Entry: Initiate a long position at the current price level around the support zone. This entry point is supported by strong technical confluences, enhancing the probability of a successful trade.
Target:
• Primary Target: Aim for the previous resistance level around 2,623, where the price is likely to encounter the first significant barrier.
• Secondary Target: A further target can be set higher around 2,626, aligning with a major resistance level or a previous high.
• Stop Loss: Place the stop loss just below the identified support area and the recent low around 2,610. This placement minimizes risk and prevents premature exit if there is slight volatility.
Fundamental Justification:
• Gold’s recent retracement is largely driven by a short-term profit-taking scenario, despite a favorable macro backdrop for safe-haven assets. Continued concerns over global economic uncertainties and potential dovish signals from central banks are likely to support further upside.
• Upcoming data releases and geopolitical developments should be closely monitored, as any significant shift could accelerate the movement towards the upper targets.
Risk Management & Trade Adjustments:
• If the price decisively breaks below the current support zone, exit the trade and look for new setups. This would invalidate the current bullish outlook and signal a potential shift in market dynamics.
• Consider trailing the stop loss as the price moves in favor, securing profits while allowing for further upside movement.
Conclusion:
This long position on Gold capitalizes on a well-established support level and bullish market structure. With a favorable risk-to-reward ratio and supportive technical indicators, this trade offers an attractive setup for those looking to capture the next leg higher in Gold’s price action. Remain vigilant for any fundamental changes that could impact the trade.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
Gold Surges Above 2600—Prepare for a Potential Reversal
After enjoying a pleasant weekend, we’re back to the action-packed market. Gold unexpectedly broke through 2600, reaching a high of 2631 today. Unfortunately, our short positions from Friday were caught in a trap.
However, there's no need to worry—trust me, a significant drop is inevitable, and it might be more dramatic than we anticipate.
Currently, the 15-minute chart indicates a potential for a small rebound, while the 2-hour chart signals bearish momentum. Based on this setup, it's likely that a head and shoulders pattern could form. Our strategy should be to increase our short positions above 2620 and patiently wait for the decline to unfold.
XAUUSD:Bearish intraday
Last Friday, gold made a strong breakout above resistance, stabilizing above 2600. Today’s opening continues to show slight consolidation at high levels. From a technical perspective, the short-term outlook is bearish, indicating that at least one retest of the 2600 support is needed to determine if there is further upward momentum.
In my personal view, a deeper pullback is more likely. By early October, there’s a high probability of a return to the 2550 level. Thus, my mid-term strategy will focus on short positions. For intraday trading, the key focus will be on the 2600 support area—if it holds, a long position around that level could be considered.
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XAUUSD Volume coming in the last few hoursXAUUSD has formed inverted head & should and started to move back to upside. As of weekend we may see increased volume in the market. In the next few hours can expect gold to have bounce. The best entry can be after a liquidity grab from a break of structure.
XAUUSD: It may fall below 2500
The price is hovering around the resistance level once again, and the difficulty in breaking through remains high. Therefore, today's trading strategy should prioritize short positions.
If there is no significant change over an extended period, I believe there is a strong likelihood that this drop will eventually break below 2500. This is a judgment that requires time to confirm, so let's wait and see with patience.
Proof Technical Analysis Reigns SupremeIn doing my multi-timeframe analysis from earlier in the evening I was bias long. However I wasn't sure if price wanted to make a deeper pullback to the 1H LQZ I had marked up or even come down for the 3rd touch of my trendline in the ascending wedge (reversal pattern).
Dropping down to the 5m timeframe I saw price slowing and formed a hover. I could have set an entry using a lower lot size to build a buffer, confidence, and to be able to participate in the markets - but I didn't. I passed out lol.
I knew my bias was still correct and I was confident in taking "another" long position. I saw a larger flag with the close of that flag above a resistance zone or LQZ however you want to label it, and knew my bias was still valid.
I took my entry as I saw price stalling forming some 5m dojis. After the first big push up I was able to reduced my risk letting the trade play out.
My TP was initially aiming for the high of the day. However I was mindful of NY taking longer to play out and I knew I wasn't able to really monitor my trade. So I "didn't get greedy" and snagged my profits at about 80 ticks on the futures chart.
This was a huge lesson in trusting the story price tells us through market structure and patterns. Although I didn't participate in my first trade, the trade I did take would have been a great stack-in. I'm glad I was able to participate today as my best and only trading days are Thursdays and Fridays.
The 2550 target has been achieved, how to trade next?
Currently, gold has fallen below 2550, and our short-term goal has been achieved. Due to the rapid and sharp decline, there is a need for a rebound and repair on the technical side. It is expected that there will be an increase in the intraday tomorrow. The transaction can be mainly based on low-level longs, and short again after rebounding to the resistance.
XAUUSD: Sell@2577-2590
Have a nice day. I was away on a business trip Tuesday, and just got back today—I hope everyone is doing well.
Gold did not follow my initial expectation of a decline. Instead, after breaking through resistance, it experienced a significant rally. Today, it broke past 2580, setting a new all-time high. Based on current indicators, the market still has upward momentum, and we can't rule out the possibility of testing 2600. However, before that happens, there will likely be a test of support.
Thus, my trading approach is to short gold in the 2577-2590 range for now.
Gold Set to Decline After European Session
Today, the primary focus is on short positions after the European session. During the Asian session, there may be another test of the upper resistance, but the probability of a breakout is low. Therefore, after the European session, bearish momentum is expected to take control. Our trading strategy should align with this trend by initiating sell positions. In the near term, the market is likely to decline towards the 2550 level, with a medium-term target around the 2487 zone.
Gold Forms Triangle Consolidation, Double Top Reversal in Sight?
Yesterday, gold made its first pullback to test support and has now formed a triangle consolidation pattern. I anticipate that today will begin with an upward movement, followed by another test of resistance. However, I believe the resistance will hold, leading to another decline. Eventually, gold is likely to break below the trendline, forming a double top at the highs and triggering a significant bearish reversal.
Gold Nearing Peak: Time to Short Ahead of Expected Pullback
Gold has reached a high level, and technical indicators are starting to show signs of weakening. I anticipate that we are about to see the final short-term push upward, followed by a return to a downward consolidation trend. Prices are expected to drop below 2550.
The current trading strategy is to initiate short positions, gradually adding more as the price fluctuates, and holding until the downward trend begins.
Gold Stagnates at Resistance: A Breakdown Imminent?
Gold has been consolidating at its high levels for some time, with the resistance zone clearly defined. As long as this resistance remains unbroken, the primary focus should be on short positions. The longer the price consolidates, the sharper the eventual decline is expected to be.