Gold Analysis – Why I’m Targeting $4,085Friday July 18 2025. Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur - Gold analysis done by Zezu Zaza to see the potential upcoming upside starting today this Friday.
I am using a CCT (Chrono Conditioned Trading) technique for my trading based analysis with mathematical strategy in the Xauusd pricing. We will cover the technical, fundamental and sentiment aspect as these are the three components pillars in trading before making any decision and movement trend.
1. Technical Setup (Daily Chart)
Gold is currently consolidating between the $3,300 to $3,375 range after a strong rally earlier this year.
The RSI sits near the neutral 50 level, while the MACD shows signs of a potential bullish crossover.
A confirmed breakout above the $3,375 to $3,400 resistance zone may lead to a surge toward $3,600 to $3,650, and possibly much higher.
Market structure remains bullish, with higher lows forming a solid base around $3,300.
2. Federal Reserve Outlook – 2025 Rate Cuts Expected
The market is now pricing in at least two interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve by the end of 2025. A 25 basis point cut is expected in September, with another potentially coming in December. Recent CPI and PPI data indicate cooling inflation, giving the Fed more room to ease without reigniting price pressure. Labor market strength is weakening, wage growth is decelerating, and tighter credit conditions are emerging. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently stated that the risks of over-tightening are now balanced, signaling a shift to a more dovish stance. Lower interest rates reduce bond yields and weaken the dollar, which historically fuels gold’s bullish momentum. If trump fired or Powell decision to step down, this will fire the gold even higher for the catalyze.
3. Market Sentiment (Speculative Positioning)
As of July 11, 2025, the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report shows speculative net long positions on gold have surged to 203,000 contracts, the highest level in several months.
This signals a strong bullish sentiment among hedge funds and large traders.
In addition, gold ETFs saw over $38 billion in inflows in the first half of 2025, highlighting strong institutional demand as investors seek safety in uncertain times.
The positioning supports further upside as traders bet on a softer dollar and increased market volatility.
4. Macro Fundamentals and Hedge Fund Sentiment
Central banks around the world, especially in the BRICS nations, continue to increase their gold reserves in efforts to reduce reliance on the US dollar.
China has been actively accumulating gold for more than eight consecutive months, with unofficial estimates suggesting holdings of up to 5,000 metric tons.
Several hedge funds and institutional managers now classify gold as a core asset class due to rising fiscal uncertainty, geopolitical risk, and the deterioration of confidence in monetary policy. David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital emphasized that gold is not just about inflation but about the credibility of monetary and fiscal policies. His fund maintains a long gold position and expects higher prices as global deficits and structural imbalances persist.
5. Institutional Forecasts and Speculator Targets
Goldman Sachs has raised its end-of-2025 target to the $3,700 to $3,950 range, citing rising ETF inflows and a softer Fed stance. JPMorgan expects gold to average around $3,675 in the fourth quarter of 2025. Citi, in a bull case scenario, believes gold could trade well above $3,300. The World Gold Council has outlined a high-conviction scenario in which gold could reach $4,000 within the next six to nine months, driven by stagflation and global monetary instability. Greenlight Capital is reportedly aiming for the $3,500 to $3,800 range, though David Einhorn noted that he does not want prices to rise excessively too quickly.
Target Price: $4,085 first before turn the bullish sooners to $5000 price make this same year.
My target of $4,085 is supported by the convergence of multiple factors:
- A bullish technical structure with a potential breakout
- Fed interest rate cuts reducing yields and weakening the dollar. Fed will reduce the rates for the first time this year (12 more days) after this article is published today 18 July 2025.
- Strong speculative positioning and ETF demand
- Aggressive central bank accumulation
- Hedge fund sentiment aligned with rising gold exposure
- Persistent geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty
If these conditions hold, $4,085 is a realistic medium-term objective within six to nine months.
Trading Plan Summary
Component Strategy
Entry Zone Breakout above $3,375
Stop Loss $3,300 to $3,320 (below key support)
Take Profit Partial at $3,600 to $3,650, trail remainder to $4,085
Risk Triggers Dollar strength, unexpected Fed hawkish turn, resolution in geopolitics
Key Catalysts CPI done, PPI done, FOMC statements, nonfarm payrolls, war developments
Final Takeaway
This gold analysis blends a bullish technical pattern with the macroeconomic backdrop of an approaching Fed pivot, rising speculative positioning, and ongoing central bank purchases.
Hedge funds and institutions are increasingly viewing gold as an essential defensive asset, especially in the face of deteriorating fiscal credibility and geopolitical tensions.
If gold breaks and holds above the $3,375 level, the path toward $4,085 becomes significantly more probable.
18 July 2025 Friday is a starter ignition trend will born today. I will place some test lots today and will accumulate after from time to time.
Let me know if you what is your opinion or send email to me to reach me for the insitutional analyst or want to see live trade.
Regards,
Zezu Zaza
2048
