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Gold Market Outlook – 1st of July | XAU/USD | 30min | by Mohsen # Gold Market Outlook – 1st of July | XAU/USD | 30min | by Mohsen Mozafari Nejad 🔸 **Instrument:** Gold Spot / USD (XAU/USD) 🔸 **Timeframe:** 30min 🔸 **Methodology:** Smart Money Concepts (SMC) + Liquidity + OB + Market Structure 🔸 **Focus:** New Monthly Open Setup --- ## 🔍 Market Context: - **Structure:** Bullish on LTF (MSU) - **Efficiency:** ✅ Clean & Efficient Delivery - **Recent Activity:** Reverse H&S completed + double BOS + CHoCH confirmed - **Price Level:** Trading near key Supply zone (3300–3315) - **Monthly Context:** July begins with bullish momentum & previous session showed aggressive buy-side pressure --- ## 🧠 Technical Breakdown: 1. **Strong recovery** after clearing deep liquidity sweep (Head zone) 2. **Bullish BOS** structure confirmed on LTF → Multiple HH and HL formed 3. Price now testing **Key Supply/OB zone at 3300–3315** 4. Above this zone lies a **Strong High (SH) around 3,350**, a potential liquidity magnet 5. Overall bias is bullish unless strong rejection appears from upper OB --- ## 📌 Trade Plan: | Position | Entry Confirmation Zone | Stop Loss (SL) | Take Profit (TP) | |----------|--------------------------|----------------|------------------| | Long | Above 3,303–3,310 (structure hold) | Below 3,294 | TP1: 3,325 / TP2: 3,340 / TP3: 3,348 | | Short (scalp only) | Bearish reaction from 3,345–3,350 | Above 3,353 | TP1: 3,310 / TP2: 3,290 | --- ## ⚠️ Risk Factors to Watch: - 🔺 High-impact USD news (July 1st releases: Manufacturing PMI / employment preview) - 🔺 Overextension above supply zone without support → trap risk - 🔺 Bull trap risk if price spikes above 3,340 then sharply reverses --- ## ✅ Summary: > **Start of July** could fuel volatility and directional momentum. > The structure is clearly bullish short-term, but upper liquidity zones remain **highly reactive**. > Smart traders will wait for reaction at the 3,340–3,350 SH zone before overcommitting. **Structure:** 🟢 Bullish **Trend:** 📈 MSU **Efficiency:** ✅ Clean **Liquidity:** 🔺 Above SH & Below recent HL --- 📊 Prepared by: **Mohsen Mozafari Nejad**
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by mmozafari1357
Gold Short To Medium Term OutlookGold bounced from the lower Support Zone after briefly breaching $3,270. Price is now attempting a recovery, currently trading near $3,290, but remains below both the 50 EMA and 200 EMA — confirming bearish pressure is still intact. For bulls to gain momentum, we need to see a clean break and hold above $3,298–$3,327which would open the path toward $3,352 and possibly higher resistance levels like $3,364 and $3,383. Until then, this move may simply be a short-term pullback within a broader downtrend. If price fails to reclaim $3,327, watch for a drop back toward $3,270, with a deeper correction targeting the $3,241–$3,211 zone. 📌 Key Levels to Watch: Resistance: $3,298 • $3,327 • $3,352 • $3,364 • $3,383 Support: $3,270 • $3,241 • $3,211 • $3,179 🧠 Fundamental Focus: This week is packed with high-impact events — including Non-Farm Payrolls on Thursday. These could trigger sharp moves in gold, so stay cautious and manage risk wisely.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by azgoldtrader
Gold Short to Medium Term Outlook Last week, gold bounced from the lower Support Zone after briefly breaching $3,270. Price is now attempting a recovery, currently trading near $3,290, but remains below both the 50 EMA and 200 EMA — confirming bearish pressure is still intact. For bulls to gain momentum, we need to see a clean break and hold above $3,298–$3,327which would open the path toward $3,352 and possibly higher resistance levels like $3,364 and $3,383. Until then, this move may simply be a short-term pullback within a broader downtrend. If price fails to reclaim $3,327, watch for a drop back toward $3,270, with a deeper correction targeting the $3,241–$3,211 zone. 📌 Key Levels to Watch: Resistance: $3,298 • $3,327 • $3,352 • $3,364 • $3,383 Support: $3,270 • $3,241 • $3,211 • $3,179 🧠 Fundamental Focus: This week is packed with high-impact events — including FOMC minutes on Wednesday and Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. Both events could trigger sharp moves in gold, so stay cautious and manage risk wisely.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by azgoldtrader
Reverse Head & Shoulders Setup | Gold Spot | 15min | by Mohsen M 🔸 **Chart:** Gold Spot / USD (XAU/USD) 🔸 **Timeframe:** 15min 🔸 **Method:** Smart Money Concepts (SMC) + Pattern Recognition 🔸 **Focus:** Reverse H&S, Order Blocks, TLQ, BOS --- ## 🔍 Market Context: - **Market Structure:** Bearish on higher TF - **Short-Term Trend:** MSU (Market Structure Up) - **Efficiency:** ✅ Confirmed — clean price delivery - **Key Pattern:** Bullish **Inverse Head & Shoulders** --- ## 🧠 Technical Breakdown: 1. **Left Shoulder – Head – Right Shoulder** perfectly forming within a high-value demand zone 2. Price reacted strongly from **Order Block (OB)** + TLQ marked at the bottom wick (Head zone) 3. BOS confirms bullish attempt to shift structure 4. Anticipating neckline break at ~3345 level for further upside 5. Potential resistance and liquidity resting above 3400 (HH region) --- ## 📌 Trading Plan (Pre-London Open / Monday 1:30 AM UTC+3:30): - **Entry Idea:** Watch for bullish confirmation after price stabilizes above Right Shoulder zone (~3300–3320) Or re-entry on a retest of neckline after breakout - **Stop Loss:** Below "Head" and OB zone (~3260) - **Take Profits:** - TP1: Neckline break zone (~3345) - TP2: 3400 – Liquidity pool - TP3: Final HH sweep (~3420+) --- ## ⚠️ Alternate Bearish Case: > If price breaks below the "Head" zone and OB fails to hold, > → Expect bearish continuation to the next liquidity zone near **VTA @ 3200** --- ## ✅ Summary: This is a clean **bullish reversal setup** using SMC logic and a classic H&S pattern: **OB + TLQ + BOS + Efficient Market + Clear Pattern ➝ High-Probability Setup** Structure: 🟥 Bearish (macro) Trend: 🔼 MSU (micro) Efficiency: ✅ Efficient Pattern: 🟩 Inverse Head & Shoulders --- 📊 Prepared by: **Mohsen Mozafari Nejad**
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by mmozafari1357
8
Is today Black Friday?On Thursday, gold prices rose to 3350 with support from 3333-30. When the key support of 3320 was broken, it indicated that the short-term rise turned into a fall. This morning, the rebound to 3320 confirmed the pressure of the top and bottom conversion, and then slowly fell all the way to break the integer mark of 3300 US dollars. In 4 hours, it has fallen below the previous low of 3295, and will continue to fall. There are two support positions below, namely 3277 and 3263. Don’t expect a big rebound before going short in the negative market. If the rebound is large, it will not fall. This kind of negative decline is generally judged by the 15- and 30-minute patterns. When resistance appears in the big cycle, the market has actually fallen a lot. Today, I think the pressure is mainly in the 3300 and 3310 areas. 3310 can be considered as the pressure of the top and bottom conversion. Pay attention to 3377 and 3363 below. If you consider more, you may be at a relatively extreme position of 3363. For the time being, the general direction is mainly short.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDShort
by DrewJudson
Scalping Strategy Using BOS & OB | Gold Spot | by Mohsen MozafarDescription: > This is a 30-minute scalping setup on Gold Spot (XAU/USD), based on Smart Money Concepts (SMC) — focusing on Break of Structure (BOS) and Order Blocks (OB). Analysis and strategy are prepared by Mohsen Mozafari Nejad. --- 📊 Market Context: Current Structure: Bearish Short-Term Market Structure: MSU (Market Structure Up) Efficiency: Confirmed (clean price action & response zones) --- 🧠 Technical Highlights: 1. Double BOS confirms recent shifts in momentum 2. TLQ (Top Liquidity Quest) formed after HH (Higher High) and liquidity sweep 3. Key Demand OB identified (labeled A) — valid based on BOS confirmation 4. Expecting a bounce from OB (A) towards (B) as a reaction to unfilled imbalance 5. Potential drop from TLQ zone (B) to (C) if liquidity is fully absorbed --- 🎯 Scalping Plan: Entry Zone: Order Block at (A), waiting for CHoCH or bullish price action confirmation (preferably on lower timeframe like M5) Stop Loss: Just below OB (around 3327) Take Profits: TP1: Near TLQ / Extreme zone (B) TP2: Further liquidity grab or possible continuation above previous HH --- ❗ Alternative Bearish Scenario: If price fails to hold at OB (A) and breaks below 3327 with BOS, → short opportunity opens toward new lows at 3314–3310 (labeled C). --- ✅ Summary: This is a clean scalping setup following SMC principles: BOS → OB → Liquidity → Reaction Focus on structure, precision, and quick confirmation signals. Prepared by: 📌 Mohsen Mozafari Nejad
OANDA:XAUUSD
by mmozafari1357
1
Gold Short Term OutlookYesterday’s chart analysis played out well. Price broke above the MA50 and tested the $3,346 resistance zone. However, this zone failed to hold, and gold dropped aggressively toward the $3,306 support. Once again, price is trending below both the 50 and 200 moving averages, indicating continued bearish pressure. For now, the $3,306 support is holding. Bulls need to break above $3,330-$3,346 for higher levels to open up. 🔑 Key Levels: Resistance: $3,346 • $3,361 • $3,375 Support: $3,306 • $3,287 • $3,271 • $3,242
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by azgoldtrader
Gold Short Term OutlookYesterday, we noted that gold needed to close and hold above the $3,330 resistance to open the path toward $3,346 and potentially $3,375. Since then, price rejected the intraday support and is now trending above the $3,330 level. Currently, the 50MA is acting as dynamic resistance. A clean break above it could trigger a move toward $3,346 and possibly higher resistance zones. However, if bullish momentum fades, price may drop back toward the key support area, where buyers could look to step in again. 🔑 Key Levels: Resistance: $3,330 • $3,346 • $3,361 • $3,375 Support: $3,306 • $3,287 • $3,271 • $3,242
OANDA:XAUUSD
by azgoldtrader
1
Gold Short Term OutlookGold dipped into the Support Zone but failed to sustain the breakdown below it. After briefly breaking below the zone, price has rebounded and is now attempting a short-term recovery. However, structure remains bearish, with price trading below both the 50MA and 200MA, signalling continued downside pressure unless momentum shifts. For bullish momentum to continue, we need to see a clean break and hold above $3,330, which may open the path toward $3,346, then $3,361. If the move up doesn’t hold, the next reaction is expected near key support. 🔑 Key Levels: Resistance: $3,330 • $3,346 • $3,361 • $3,375 Support: $3,306 • $3,287 • $3,271 • $3,242 📌 Stay patient and wait for confirmation before committing to a direction.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by azgoldtrader
Gold Short Term OutlookYesterday’s chart idea is playing out as analysed. Gold failed to break above the $3,395 resistance and has now pulled back, currently testing the first support zone — aligned with the 4H 200MA and Daily 50MA. If this area fails to hold, price is likely to head toward the next key support zone, where we expect a potential reaction. To resume bullish momentum, we need to see a strong close above $3,346. Key bullish zones remain $3,375 and $3,395. 📌 Key Levels to Watch: Resistance: $3,375 • $3,395 • $3,418 • $3,439 Support: $3,361 • $3,346 • $3,330 / $3,306 $3,287 – Critical demand zone 🧠 Fundamental Focus: All eyes are on Fed Chair Powell’s testimony today, which may offer clues about the Fed’s rate outlook and inflation stance. Any hint of continued hawkishness could weigh on gold, while dovish commentary may trigger renewed upside interest. Expect heightened intraday volatility around his remarks — stay cautious.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by azgoldtrader
Gold, Will USA-Iran-Israel conflict affect it? The USA-Iran-Israel conflict can significantly impact gold prices. Gold is a safe-haven asset, so demand often rises during geopolitical tensions, pushing prices up 3406 gonna be first target for me, if it breaks this lvl with huge volume and FVG on 1h+ then most likely we will see ATH in near future bearish scenario(lest likely) - price breaks down 3340 and close with nice volume and fvg on 1h+ which will open move all the way down to MO
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by Almenio
Gold Short Term OutlookGold is currently trading around $3,368, caught between dynamic moving average resistance and an intraday resistance zone. Price must break and hold above the $3,378 resistance to open the path toward $3,395. A confirmed break above the key $3,395 level could signal the start of the next bullish leg. However, repeated failure to break above $3,395 — or even $3,378 — may drag gold lower into key support zones. 📌 Key Levels to Watch: Resistance: $3,375 • $3,395 • $3,418 • $3,439 Support: $3,361 • $3,346 • $3,330 / $3,306 $3,287 – Critical demand zone 🧠 Fundamental Insight: Gold remains supported amid rising geopolitical tensions. Over the weekend, U.S. airstrikes targeted Iranian nuclear sites, escalating concerns over a broader conflict in the Middle East. This has reignited safe-haven demand, with gold catching a bid despite recent technical pullbacks. Meanwhile, traders are weighing softer U.S. inflation signals against the Fed’s cautious stance. If tensions persist and economic data weakens, gold could benefit from both risk-off flows and increased speculation around potential rate cuts.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by azgoldtrader
Gold Medium Term OutlookGold is currently trending within a rising channel after rejecting the $3,439 resistance zone, which marked a new Higher High (HH). Price is respecting the ascending channel support and is now testing the 50MA. The uptrend remains intact, with a sequence of Higher Lows (HL) and Higher Highs (HH) forming within the channel. A break and hold above $3,378 could open the path for a re-test of $3,439 and potentially $3,501. However, failure to hold the rising channel support may shift momentum bearish, with $3,303 and $3,226 as the next major downside targets. 📌 Key Levels to Watch This Week: Resistance: $3,378 • $3,439 • $3,501 Support: $3,303 • $3,226 • $3,171 🧠 Fundamental Insight: Gold remains supported amid rising geopolitical tensions. Over the weekend, U.S. airstrikes targeted Iranian nuclear sites, escalating concerns over a broader conflict in the Middle East. This has reignited safe-haven demand, with gold catching a bid despite recent technical pullbacks. Meanwhile, traders are weighing softer U.S. inflation signals against the Fed’s cautious stance. If tensions persist and economic data weakens, gold could benefit from both risk-off flows and increased speculation around potential rate cuts.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by azgoldtrader
1
XAUUSD: Analysis H4 next weekThe continued tension in the Middle East (Israel–Iran) has led to a flight to safe havens, a key driver for gold. Reduced pressure from the USD due to expectations that the Fed will slow down its rate cut (~September), coupled with inflationary pressures, could support gold prices If tensions in the Middle East do not ease next week, gold's rally could extend and we could see 3500. But be careful, as if tensions ease and some good news from the USD comes, the rally could be halted.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Stone_Haven
XAUUSD: Analysis June 16Gold has a lot of momentum to increase and could head towards testing the all-time high around 3500 as there are too many risks emerging, from geopolitical developments to interest rate outlook, and tariffs. Major conflicts in the Middle East, Russia - Ukraine, trade war between the US and the rest of the world, ... are all sudden risk support that makes gold likely to surge in the short term. Gold, after increasing around 3450 this morning, is currently correcting down. But overall, the uptrend with gold is still solid after breaking the downtrend channel. However, we should avoid buying in strong corrections. The support area around 3400 will be the ideal place for us to BUY today. And the resistance area 3440 - 3445 will be where we SELL.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Stone_Haven
2