Xauusdforexsignal
GOLD : Gold is looking forward to today's dataMarket analysts forecast positive numbers for the May report. Expect the cost of goods and services to increase at an annual rate of 2.6%, down slightly from April's 2.7%. More importantly, core PCE is expected to fall to 2.6% (on an annual basis) in May, from 2.8% in April. If these forecasts come true, it would signal a further reduction in inflationary pressures. , bringing the economy closer to the Fed's 2% inflation target.
Fed officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell, have repeatedly emphasized the need for a sustained positive economic data trend before considering a change in monetary policy. In the recent press conference of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), Mr. Powell reaffirmed this view: "We have stated that reducing the federal funds rate target range will not be appropriate until when we have greater confidence that inflation is moving towards 2% sustainably."
The market's growing confidence in the Fed's ability to change policy is reflected in the probability of cutting interest rates. CME's FedWatch tool currently shows that there is only a 35.9% chance that the Fed will keep current interest rates unchanged (from 5.25% to 5.50%) through September. This is a significant change in market sentiment, down from 37.7% just one day ago and 50.2% a month ago. This trend shows growing optimism about when the Fed will move toward normalizing interest rates.
On Thursday afternoon, 6:00 pm ET, the August gold futures contract was trading actively, soaring 28.90 USD (equivalent to 1.25%) to 2,338.70 USD/oz. Although a weaker USD provided some support, the main driver of the rally was bullish market sentiment centered on expectations for Friday's PCE report.
XAUUSD : Gold increased slightly after two days of declineUS economic data on June 27 was not very positive: the number of applications for unemployment benefits reached the highest level since November 2021, the number of durable goods orders showed a bad signal for Q2 GDP, sales Pending home sales hit a record low, and finally, the Kansas Fed's manufacturing activity stagnated for the 21st straight month.
World gold prices are slightly decreasing, fluctuating around 2,320 USD/ounce.
XAU/USD had a positive trading session, rising more than $30 to $2,329 an ounce on Thursday. World gold prices have recovered from their lowest level in 2 weeks thanks to the weakening of the USD, after a series of data showed that the US economy is slowing down, reinforcing expectations of lowering interest rates by the Fed.
The market is currently paying attention to important US inflation data today for more clues about the Fed's interest rate path.
GOLD : Is gold preparing to test a breakout?The downward pressure on gold prices increased further due to rising US government bond yields. This yield has increased from 5-7 bps across all bond terms. A recent five-year US Treasury bond auction showed positive results, with bids from non-dealer investors exceeding the average.
Recent statements by Fed officials have also further influenced market sentiment. Fed Governor Lisa Cook acknowledged progress in curbing inflation and the labor market is gradually cooling, but she did not give a specific time to reduce interest rates. Meanwhile, Fed Board of Governors Member Michelle Bowman stated that now is not the time to start cutting interest rates, even suggesting the possibility of raising interest rates if inflation persists.
These developments come just ahead of the important PCE index report, scheduled for release on Friday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and the Wall Street Journal predicted consumer prices would fall last month. The core PCE index, which excludes food and energy costs, is expected to hit its lowest level since March 2021.
If the PCE report matches forecasts, this could suggest inflation is on track toward the Fed's goals. This could encourage the Fed to consider reducing its benchmark interest rate as early as September, despite recent hawkish statements from some Fed officials.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell previously emphasized the need for greater confidence in economic data before making policy adjustments. The positive PCE report could mark the start of the "string of positive economic data" the Fed is looking for, potentially paving the way for an earlier rate cut than Cook and Bowman suggested. recently released.
The combination of a strong USD, rising yields and mixed signals from Fed officials continue to create a difficult environment for gold prices in the short term. However, the upcoming PCE report could significantly influence the Fed's future policy decisions, and therefore market sentiment towards gold.
XAUUSD : Is gold looking towards the target of $2,150?World gold prices moved sideways after falling more than 30 USD/ounce yesterday, fluctuating around 2,298 USD/ounce. Gold prices fell for a second straight session and hit their lowest in more than a week on Wednesday. Recent "hawkish" comments from a series of Fed officials show that the US central bank is unlikely to lower interest rates soon in the context of a recovering economy. This has supported the USD and weakened it. Yellow.
Experts say that gold will fluctuate within a narrow range because investors are cautious ahead of the release of US inflation data later this week.
If gold loses the $2,300 mark, it is likely that the $2,100-$2,150 range will be retested.
However, this is nothing to worry about. If the US economy continues to slow down, the possibility of interest rate cuts will increase, and gold will recover.
After gold retested its breakout in 1978, the precious metal rose 122% in 13 months. A similar scenario occurred in 2009 with an increase of 63% after 13 months.
If the current correction continues, it will be a gift as one will get a second and perhaps last chance to catch the gold bottom.
XAUUSD : Gold will increase sharply this weekWorld gold prices are trading in slight red after falling about 22 USD/ounce yesterday, currently fluctuating around 2,314 USD/ounce. The world gold market was relatively quiet at the beginning of this week due to the lack of important economic data and events. Experts say that XAU/USD fluctuates in a narrow range because investors are cautious ahead of the release of US inflation data later this week.
XAUUSD : Gold will recover after falling in priceXAU/USD is fluctuating around 2,325 USD/ounce. World gold prices moved sideways as investors waited for US inflation data, expected to be released later this week with the focus on the US core PCE index. This makes investors increase their expectations that the Fed will soon reduce interest rates in the next few months, supporting gold - a non-yielding asset.
SPDR Gold Shares fund sold a net 2.88 tons of gold on June 24, reducing its holdings to 829.05 tons.
XAUUSD : Does gold have the ability to recover strongly?XAU/USD is increasing slightly and hovering around 2,337 USD/ounce. According to American Bank Wells Fargo, this precious metal may continue to consolidate throughout the summer as the market accepts the Fed's tightening policy.
In an interview with Kitco News, John LaForge, Director of Real Asset Strategy at the bank, said: "Central banks will continue to buy wine, while also seeing solid upside potential in gold." quarterly through 2025. According to Wells Fargo's mid-year updated price forecast, gold prices are expected to trade between 2,300-2,400 USD/ounce."
Gold is difficult to break through, continue to short goldToday, gold continued to rise in the short term, reaching a high of around 2335. In the short term, it touched the key suppression area I pointed out. With the bottoming out and rebounding yesterday, the intraday trend was relatively intact, and the short term seemed to have been supported. However, although gold continued to rise in the short term, it has not really strengthened. The overall trend is still in a volatile trend, and there is no obvious sign of a breakthrough. In addition, gold failed to break through the resistance of the 2335-2340 area, and the bulls have not reached the level of upward rush. Therefore, the possibility of falling back after the intraday high is greater.
Moreover, the U.S. market is closed early today, and it is difficult to continue to break through and rise in the short term. Obviously, it is not suitable to continue chasing gold now, so we might as well rely on the short-term 2335-2340 area resistance to short gold again!
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XAUUSD : Gold will bounce back stronglyXAU/USD is moving sideways and trading around 2,322 USD/ounce.
According to senior market analyst Jim Wyckoff of Kitco Metals, gold prices fluctuate when influenced by external factors due to a lack of important new fundamental news. In this context, Wyckoff predicts, prices will likely move sideways
about 2,300 - 2,400 USD/ounce for the next important catalyst and he believes that these catalysts will not appear until July.
World gold prices weakened in the context of some US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials predicting interest rate cuts in December this year. This causes US government bond interest rates to increase to nearly 4.3%, causing disadvantages for gold - a non-yielding asset.