Gold is weak, keep shorting goldThe current market is still volatile, without any breaking behavior. In fact, since the start of London trading hours, there has not been a good opportunity to participate in market transactions, and it has been fluctuating around the 2315-2323 area.
However, judging from the strength of today's rebound, the upward momentum of gold is obviously insufficient, and it can't even stand at 2324. Relatively speaking, the performance of gold is still weak, and there are signs of a double top structure in the short-term chart, which suppresses gold. So in terms of trading, I still tend to short gold. But in order to avoid a wash-out breakthrough like Friday, we must grasp the trading rhythm in short-term trading, so as not to be easily eliminated.
During the period of gold volatility, we focus on the upper resistance of 2335-2340, but as gold gradually moves downward, we first pay attention to the short-term resistance of 2325-2330; and on the bottom, we first pay attention to the support of 2305-2300. If it breaks through 2300, the target will move downward.
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Xauusdidea
XAUUSD After a week of volatile news from the Fed
Last week we observed that US inflation indicators showed signs of cooling down.
- Wednesday's CPI dropped from 3.45 to 3.3%
- PPI index decreased -0.2%
Inflation indicators decreased while economic indicators were negative
- As the unemployment rate and unemployment benefit application rate increase
This shows that the Fed's monetary policy is effectively reducing inflation, specifically consumer price CPI and production costs, while also reflecting the negative economic impact of the policy. this book. This requires that the Fed may begin to loosen monetary policy in the near future
Look at D1
- We see that the correction has completed wave B and is continuing wave C of wave 4.
- We can measure the target of wave C at 2 price zones 2256 and 2210 price zones.
- We have a price zone confirming the final wave 4 which is the 2150 price zone. If the price breaks through this zone, our ABC wave counting process is no longer correct, then we have to re-plan a new plan based on new data.
Look at H1
- The price has broken out through the 2323 zone and is testing this zone again. Looking at the reversing momentum in the oversold area, it is likely that the price has successfully tested and continues to rise to the target areas of wave C above.
- Yesterday we measured the target wave C which is 2 areas 2354 and 2360
- The target area of wave C is a very good area for us to look for Sell down orders
- Combined with chart D1, we will have the price range where this decrease will end at 2256 or 2210.
- We also have a zone that denies this wave counting process when the price surpasses the 2388 zone, then the price has entered an uptrend and we are forced to change our trading strategy at that time (I will update later if that happens).
Xauusd after a series of important news from the FedYesterday's news announced to us
First, the ppi decrease combined with the unemployment benefits application index increased. Combined with a decrease in CPI, this is beneficial for Gold to increase because the economic situation seems to be weakening, putting pressure on the Fed to reduce interest rates. However, Nonfarm data, specifically the employment index, has increased sharply in the recent period, which is the motivation for the Fed to keep the current interest rate at 5.9%. This is the reason why PPI news, although beneficial for Gold, cannot last long.
Look at H1
- We are having the idea of an abc correction model. In which we expect wave c to complete
- In front of us we have 2 important price zones: 2307 and 2287, these are 2 price zones that help us determine the direction of the price.
- If the price breaks out at 2307, this is a necessary condition for the orange wave c to complete. Then we have 2 target price zones of wave c: 2350.4 and 2364.6. These are 2 areas where we can look for Sell orders
- If the price breaks out below 2287, this is a necessary condition for the price to fall to the target zone of wave 5, which is 2264. This is the area where we look for a Buy order.
XAUUSD June 13, 2024 After news of CPI and Fed interest rates
Yesterday we had the Fed's announcement about the CPI index, we saw that this index was 0.3 to 0.4 lower than the previous period. This is the result when the Fed implemented tightening monetary policy in the past.
After that, the FOMC meeting announced that interest rates would continue to remain at 5.5%.
- This made gold yesterday, after the announcement of CPI increased to 2340, then the news that interest rates remained high at 5.5% continued to push gold prices down.
Look at the H1 chart
- Yesterday's pullback to the 2340 price range reached the 50% Fibo level, which is a level that has surpassed the usual 38% level of wave 4. This suggests to us a more complex wave model
- For now, at this position, we observe the price zones to confirm the formation model, which are the price zone 2307 and the price zone 2287.
- If the price holds above the 2307 area, then we will have wave 5 formed at the 2287 area, meaning wave C during the ABC correction looks like D1 has completed. Then we have wave C higher than bottom B. Looking at D1, we see that a new complex correction model can form (I will update later).
- If the price breaks through the 2287 area, we have wave 5 targets as on the chart we mentioned before.
Sell Opportunities in the Base Area I saw that there was a clear base on XAUUSD, after the price fell on Friday last week.
XAUUSD plan takes a SELL opportunity if the price enters the base. Look at the chart.
This plan is not a recommendation for making XAUUSD trading decisions, all profits and losses are not our responsibility.
Gold rose 2400 this week?
Last Friday, gold fell by $100 under the pressure of NFP data. But to be honest, this $100 drop is not the first time; Friday's drop is also common! But this trend comes out, how to operate, how to locate, how to deal with, is very critical! I also know that many people bought gold last week, resulting in huge losses. But I have been selling. So judgment is the most important part of trading. If you need my help, you can like my trading ideas article. Recently, many people have bought and suffered relatively large losses. But it doesn't matter. As long as I help you, you can stand up again soon.
On the weekend and Monday, I emphasized Friday's trading and how to deal with Monday's follow-up. Friday chose to deal with the resistance point and chose to sell. We also won a great victory in the 2385-2338 selling order.
Today's trend analysis.
1:1 hour temporarily corrected the trend, double support near 2290, strong support position near the previous starting point support position of 2275-2280! BOLL range, the first pressure position is near 2315. Temporarily under pressure, forming a short-term decline; the support positions are near 2295 and near 2285.
2: In the 4-hour period, the stochastic indicator golden cross rebounded upward. The middle track of BOLL gradually moved down, and the pressure position of the downward pressure position 2315 and 2330/2335 here can be selected to sell at the pressure point. Choose to sell near 2315 and sell here at 2330-2335
3: In the daily K, the range of BOLL is still there for the time being, and it has not fallen below or broken through, and the trend is in a volatile trend! Therefore, there is no unilateral trend for the time being; the strength and weakness dividing points of the unilateral trend are the starting point position near 2275 below and the previous historical high position of 2420-2440 above
To sum up: In the short-term intraday, sell at 2315-2330-2335 above, and buy at the support near 2295-2285 before considering. If the support near 2285 continues to fall, the price will fall further.
XAUUSD:The rebound is not over yet
From yesterday to now, the fluctuation of gold is not large. From the shape point of view, it is still in the repair stage. Therefore, before reaching around 2330, try to trade mainly in low-level long positions and wait for the price to reach above 2330. After the indicator is repaired, the probability of returning to the short trend is relatively high. At that time, you can start trading in the medium-term short trend again. Friends who need accurate trading signals, please contact me.
Profited $18K, Fed rate decision, continue to short gold!Although gold rose beyond expectations and broke through 2335 today under the stimulus of CPI data, we still won a big victory in the short position! We added short positions near 2332 and 2338 respectively. Gold fell back quickly after touching 2341, and we closed the position manually near 2325; then when gold rebounded to 2330, we shorted gold again and closed the position manually again near 2323. Obviously, I made more than $18K in profit from today's short trade. Very considerable income!
The Fed's interest rate decision and Powell's speech later may exacerbate the short-term volatility of gold. Of course, this is also an opportunity for us to participate in transactions and make profits. In fact, for now, judging from the recent US economic data, I think the Fed does not have the conditions to cut interest rates immediately, so it is very likely to postpone the rate cut, thereby suppressing gold; and Powell's speech is likely to express an optimistic attitude, thereby supporting the rise of gold, so in the next period of time, gold may fluctuate violently back and forth!
From a technical perspective, I think gold is likely to hit the 2350-2355 area during the violent fluctuations. If gold breaks through this area strongly, it may even reach around 2370. So after closing the short position to make a profit, I have not participated in short trading again. But even if I am bullish on gold now, I will not chase the rise of gold. I may even try to short gold in small batches in the 2350-2355 area. If it breaks through this area strongly, I will choose the opportunity to short gold again in batches around 2370.
I share detailed trading strategies and trading signals every day. You can follow the channel at the bottom of the article to get detailed trading signals and learn trading logic. People who are already in it have already made a lot of money. Let us enjoy the journey of making money together. !
XAUUSD June 12, 2024 everyone waiting for the CPI roundLast week we had strong market fluctuations
- Looking from the US economic perspective, we see that with the economic indicators announced last week, we see a number of important issues.
- ISM PMI index, which is an index measuring the development of the industry, is lower than 50 standard units of this index, signaling that the industry is slowing down.
- The unemployment rate and the number of applications for unemployment benefits increased, showing that the economic situation is slowing down
With bad economic signals, the main reason is due to high interest rates, which reduces the cash flow in the US economy, causing a lack of capital for economic development.
However, on Friday when the Nonfarm index was released, we saw a sharp increase in the job change rate, which could be the medicine to help the Fed maintain high interest rates for a while longer.
Curbing inflation to 2% will come at the cost of economic stagnation, so today's CPI will help us have a clearer view of the decision to cut interest rates in the near future. .
From an analytical perspective according to Elliot
- After forming the abc wave structure (black), the price does not decrease according to the previous trend but forms a structure running in a triangle wedge. This brings us to a complex adjustment model abcde
- Looking at the complex correction model, it is difficult to specifically identify each wave. We can only recognize when the model is complete
- This pattern is confirmed when the price breaks out of the lower boundary of the triangle. We will wait for this Breakout to enter a sell order.
- In case the price breaks out to the upper edge, this correction model is no longer correct when measuring, we must confirm the price model at that time.
After wave 4 completes, the price continues to follow the previous downtrend to complete wave 5
- We have wave 5 targets at 2 price zones 2264 and 2229.
- We can find buy points in these areas.
Deekop's analysis is free from any personal bias intended to serve everyone. I can't always be right - no one can. But my analyzes reflect Deekop's meticulous assessment of the market situation in the medium and long term and nothing more to help people have the best trading plan.