Xauusdidea
Get ready to short goldToday, as the U.S. May sales monthly rate was bullish for gold, gold rose rapidly in the short term. Our long positions near 2317, 2310 and 2306 respectively hit TP2319 and took profits. Very beautiful trading results. In today's gold long trade, my profit totaled more than $25K. Very good trading results.
According to the current short-term structure, gold has returned to above the moving average and maintained a strong trend, and there is still some room for gold to rise. But overall, gold is still in a period of shock, so after gold rises, it will still fall again. Therefore, we still have to focus on shorting gold at the moment, but we must seize the opportunity to short gold.
Gold has risen strongly in the short term and has a certain continuation. According to the current short-term momentum, gold will continue to rise and try to touch the 2330-2335 area, or even near 2340, which is also a short-term resistance area. So in terms of short-term trading, I will short gold in batches in the 2330-2340 area. After the bullish momentum is consumed, gold will continue to fall!
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XAUUSD June 18, 2024 a potential sharp declineGold prices are recovering after last week's sell-off as the US economy forced the Fed to adopt a more dovish stance. Weak manufacturer inflation data and a rise in initial jobless claims supported lower interest rates. Additionally, escalating geopolitical tensions, such as increased attacks by Hezbollah on Israel and more Russian warships in the Caribbean, have contributed to this rebound.
Looking at the adjustment process from June 8 to the present time, we can see that this is a complicated adjustment process.
- Trading in a complex correction is not recommended. We watch for this adjustment process to complete
- During this process we can scalp in short price ranges in smaller frames.
- When the price reaches the expected targets, we will consider placing an order.
Looking at H1, we see that the wave C correction process is still continuing. We observe the price reaching the target price zones 2350 and 2356.
- The price will confirm the target areas of wave C when it breaks out of the 2341.8 area, then we focus on observing the chart to find a Sell order.
- In case the price breaks out of the 2296 price range, it is likely that the adjustment process has been completed and if the price also breaks out of the 2287 area, then the target price area for wave 5 is 2256 and 2210 will be the areas we focus on. closely to find Buy orders.
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Gold is weak, keep shorting goldThe current market is still volatile, without any breaking behavior. In fact, since the start of London trading hours, there has not been a good opportunity to participate in market transactions, and it has been fluctuating around the 2315-2323 area.
However, judging from the strength of today's rebound, the upward momentum of gold is obviously insufficient, and it can't even stand at 2324. Relatively speaking, the performance of gold is still weak, and there are signs of a double top structure in the short-term chart, which suppresses gold. So in terms of trading, I still tend to short gold. But in order to avoid a wash-out breakthrough like Friday, we must grasp the trading rhythm in short-term trading, so as not to be easily eliminated.
During the period of gold volatility, we focus on the upper resistance of 2335-2340, but as gold gradually moves downward, we first pay attention to the short-term resistance of 2325-2330; and on the bottom, we first pay attention to the support of 2305-2300. If it breaks through 2300, the target will move downward.
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XAUUSD After a week of volatile news from the Fed
Last week we observed that US inflation indicators showed signs of cooling down.
- Wednesday's CPI dropped from 3.45 to 3.3%
- PPI index decreased -0.2%
Inflation indicators decreased while economic indicators were negative
- As the unemployment rate and unemployment benefit application rate increase
This shows that the Fed's monetary policy is effectively reducing inflation, specifically consumer price CPI and production costs, while also reflecting the negative economic impact of the policy. this book. This requires that the Fed may begin to loosen monetary policy in the near future
Look at D1
- We see that the correction has completed wave B and is continuing wave C of wave 4.
- We can measure the target of wave C at 2 price zones 2256 and 2210 price zones.
- We have a price zone confirming the final wave 4 which is the 2150 price zone. If the price breaks through this zone, our ABC wave counting process is no longer correct, then we have to re-plan a new plan based on new data.
Look at H1
- The price has broken out through the 2323 zone and is testing this zone again. Looking at the reversing momentum in the oversold area, it is likely that the price has successfully tested and continues to rise to the target areas of wave C above.
- Yesterday we measured the target wave C which is 2 areas 2354 and 2360
- The target area of wave C is a very good area for us to look for Sell down orders
- Combined with chart D1, we will have the price range where this decrease will end at 2256 or 2210.
- We also have a zone that denies this wave counting process when the price surpasses the 2388 zone, then the price has entered an uptrend and we are forced to change our trading strategy at that time (I will update later if that happens).
Xauusd after a series of important news from the FedYesterday's news announced to us
First, the ppi decrease combined with the unemployment benefits application index increased. Combined with a decrease in CPI, this is beneficial for Gold to increase because the economic situation seems to be weakening, putting pressure on the Fed to reduce interest rates. However, Nonfarm data, specifically the employment index, has increased sharply in the recent period, which is the motivation for the Fed to keep the current interest rate at 5.9%. This is the reason why PPI news, although beneficial for Gold, cannot last long.
Look at H1
- We are having the idea of an abc correction model. In which we expect wave c to complete
- In front of us we have 2 important price zones: 2307 and 2287, these are 2 price zones that help us determine the direction of the price.
- If the price breaks out at 2307, this is a necessary condition for the orange wave c to complete. Then we have 2 target price zones of wave c: 2350.4 and 2364.6. These are 2 areas where we can look for Sell orders
- If the price breaks out below 2287, this is a necessary condition for the price to fall to the target zone of wave 5, which is 2264. This is the area where we look for a Buy order.
XAUUSD June 13, 2024 After news of CPI and Fed interest rates
Yesterday we had the Fed's announcement about the CPI index, we saw that this index was 0.3 to 0.4 lower than the previous period. This is the result when the Fed implemented tightening monetary policy in the past.
After that, the FOMC meeting announced that interest rates would continue to remain at 5.5%.
- This made gold yesterday, after the announcement of CPI increased to 2340, then the news that interest rates remained high at 5.5% continued to push gold prices down.
Look at the H1 chart
- Yesterday's pullback to the 2340 price range reached the 50% Fibo level, which is a level that has surpassed the usual 38% level of wave 4. This suggests to us a more complex wave model
- For now, at this position, we observe the price zones to confirm the formation model, which are the price zone 2307 and the price zone 2287.
- If the price holds above the 2307 area, then we will have wave 5 formed at the 2287 area, meaning wave C during the ABC correction looks like D1 has completed. Then we have wave C higher than bottom B. Looking at D1, we see that a new complex correction model can form (I will update later).
- If the price breaks through the 2287 area, we have wave 5 targets as on the chart we mentioned before.
Sell Opportunities in the Base Area I saw that there was a clear base on XAUUSD, after the price fell on Friday last week.
XAUUSD plan takes a SELL opportunity if the price enters the base. Look at the chart.
This plan is not a recommendation for making XAUUSD trading decisions, all profits and losses are not our responsibility.
XAUUSD:The rebound is not over yet
From yesterday to now, the fluctuation of gold is not large. From the shape point of view, it is still in the repair stage. Therefore, before reaching around 2330, try to trade mainly in low-level long positions and wait for the price to reach above 2330. After the indicator is repaired, the probability of returning to the short trend is relatively high. At that time, you can start trading in the medium-term short trend again. Friends who need accurate trading signals, please contact me.
Profited $18K, Fed rate decision, continue to short gold!Although gold rose beyond expectations and broke through 2335 today under the stimulus of CPI data, we still won a big victory in the short position! We added short positions near 2332 and 2338 respectively. Gold fell back quickly after touching 2341, and we closed the position manually near 2325; then when gold rebounded to 2330, we shorted gold again and closed the position manually again near 2323. Obviously, I made more than $18K in profit from today's short trade. Very considerable income!
The Fed's interest rate decision and Powell's speech later may exacerbate the short-term volatility of gold. Of course, this is also an opportunity for us to participate in transactions and make profits. In fact, for now, judging from the recent US economic data, I think the Fed does not have the conditions to cut interest rates immediately, so it is very likely to postpone the rate cut, thereby suppressing gold; and Powell's speech is likely to express an optimistic attitude, thereby supporting the rise of gold, so in the next period of time, gold may fluctuate violently back and forth!
From a technical perspective, I think gold is likely to hit the 2350-2355 area during the violent fluctuations. If gold breaks through this area strongly, it may even reach around 2370. So after closing the short position to make a profit, I have not participated in short trading again. But even if I am bullish on gold now, I will not chase the rise of gold. I may even try to short gold in small batches in the 2350-2355 area. If it breaks through this area strongly, I will choose the opportunity to short gold again in batches around 2370.
I share detailed trading strategies and trading signals every day. You can follow the channel at the bottom of the article to get detailed trading signals and learn trading logic. People who are already in it have already made a lot of money. Let us enjoy the journey of making money together. !