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Trading strategy today, downtrendKitco News' latest gold survey shows more than three-quarters of industry experts believe gold prices have stabilized or will fall next week. Meanwhile, half of retail traders polled still believe the precious metal could move higher in the coming days.
ActivTrades senior analyst Ricardo Evangelista said that information in the Fed's meeting minutes has caused traders to push back the expected interest rate cut from September to November. This change has helped push Treasury yields and the USD higher and put pressure on precious metals.
Market strategist Colin Cieszynski of SIA Wealth Management is neutral on gold this week. He said that the gold market will be quiet this week without important events.
Reports released this week include: Consumer confidence report, preliminary report on GDP in the first quarter of the US, weekly unemployment benefit applications, pending home sales, Personal consumption expenditure reports along with personal income reports in the US
Gold is expected to be quiet this week, entry sell todayWorld gold prices tend to increase with spot gold increasing by 2.4 USD compared to last week's closing level to 2,335.7 USD/ounce.
Last week, world gold prices continuously "plunged" after breaking all the records conquered in April. Kitco News's latest weekly gold survey results showed that more than three-quarters of experts believe gold prices are stable or will fall in the near term, while half of retail traders still believe the precious metal could move higher in the coming days.
Looking at gold's fluctuations last week, senior market analyst Darin Newsom of Barchart.com said that gold is likely to decline this week.
Sharing the same view, Bannockburn Global Forex CEO Marc Chandler also sees further downside risks for gold in the near future. According to Chandler, the reason gold set a record high early last week at 2,450 USD/ounce was because the market reacted to information related to the accident that claimed the life of the President of Iran. However, the strength of the USD caused gold to be sold off and plummet to nearly 2,300 USD/ounce.
Besides, the decrease in demand for gold from Chinese investors is also a disadvantage for this precious metal. Chandler forecasts that gold's initial resistance this week is at $2,375/ounce. Support is in the range of $2,275 to $2,300 per ounce.
Market strategist Colin Cieszynski of SIA Wealth Management is neutral on gold this week. He said that the gold market will be quiet this week without important events.
After the news, PMI continued to decrease and increase slightlyWorld gold prices continued to decline sharply with spot gold down 48.6 USD to 2,329.4 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at 2,330.1 USD/ounce, down 52 USD compared to yesterday morning.
The world gold market continues to be under pressure to take profits and gold prices fall to the lowest level in a week, extending the decline for the third consecutive session, as investors become increasingly concerned about the timing of interest rate cuts. of America and the strength of American business.
According to the latest report, US business activity in May accelerated to the highest level in more than 2 years, showing that economic growth recovered in the second quarter. After the report, the USD recovered strongly, offsetting intraday losses. This has reduced the attractiveness of precious metals to buyers holding other currencies.
TD Securities commodity strategist Daniel Ghali said that although the greenback's recovery and the weakening interest rate outlook have triggered a sell-off in the gold market, the correction will be relatively shallow. According to him, gold is adjusting to the view that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain high interest rates for a longer period of time, while at this meeting, the Fed mentioned the possibility of raising interest rates if inflation occurs. "persistent" development.
The decline is just the beginning, continue to short gold!Gold today maintained a volatile trend overall, and began to rebound with 2325 as support. It is currently trading near 2340. So after the sharp decline, has gold stabilized and rebounded?
Actually, I don’t think so. I said yesterday that since gold has not rebounded in retaliation after falling by $100, gold will only absorb the plunge in a volatile manner. Gold is currently performing very weakly during the rebound and cannot even break through the 2345 position. In addition, 2350 is the position where the decline accelerated after falling below the level yesterday. If gold cannot recover for a long time, there is still room for gold to continue to fall.
The current rebound of gold is not particularly strong. Gold may build a relay platform near the 2340 position, so I think the gold downward trend is far from over. After the end of the shock, gold will continue to fall, targeting 2300 or even the 2280 position area.
Gold is currently facing short-term resistance in the 2345-2350 area. In the next transactions, I will still focus on shorting gold, and then watch a new round of downward trend break out.
I share detailed trading strategies and trading signals every day. You can follow the channel at the bottom of the article to get detailed trading signals and learn trading logic. People who are already in it have already made a lot of money. Let us enjoy the journey of making money together. !
Gold remains bearishThe strong performance of the U.S. ADP employment data in April provided new challenges for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. In this context, the reaction of the gold market is particularly worthy of attention. After the data was released, gold fell back 4 US dollars in the short term and then rebounded. The number of ADP jobs in the United States increased by 192,000 in April, far exceeding the expected 175,000, showing the strength of the labor market. Salary growth slowed: Salary growth for those who changed jobs fell from 10.1% to 9.3% year-on-year. Although it is still higher than the level at the beginning of the year, it shows a certain slowing trend.
Against the backdrop of strong ADP employment data, the Fed's monetary policy decisions have become more complicated. The gold market will pay close attention to the Fed's next moves, as these decisions will directly affect gold's safe-haven demand and investment value. Investors should remain vigilant during this critical period and carefully evaluate market dynamics.
The market is in a weak position, with pressure at 2306 and 2315. Therefore, if you want to short during the day, you must first pay attention to whether 2300 breaks. If 2300 does not break, gold will go short under such extremely weak conditions. Look at the trend point below at 2250. If 2300 breaks and the strength changes, this wave can still rise to 2315 and 2330 highs.
XAUUSD:2280 is just around the corner
The current shape of gold is similar to the head and shoulders. Analyzing the shape combined with indicators, there is a high probability that it will rise first and try resistance. Therefore, the trading strategy continues to be long first and then short, focusing on the 2358-2369 range.
If a head and shoulders are formed, a decline to 2280 is inevitable. At that time, the large-cycle graph will have a double top.
If the shorts are strong, it is very likely that this time it will fall to the 2230-2200 line, and then a large-cycle upward trend will be formed. Therefore, the market is currently brewing a new opportunity, and I hope everyone can seize it!
XAUUSD on May 23 2024 fluctuated strongly after the Fed meeting?Hello everyone, DEEKOP is ready to bring the most accurate signals and assessments to everyone.
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Yesterday the Fed meeting with its published content showed
- The data shows that commodity prices have increased significantly recently, which indicates that inflation is increasing.
- Fed says inflation may take longer to fall
- The current federal funds rate is enough to slow US economic activity and reduce inflation
With such announcements, it appears that the prospect of interest rate cuts expected by the Fed this year may be changed.
When this information was announced yesterday, it immediately pushed gold prices down sharply yesterday session to 2370.
Look at H1
- Wave c is the last corrective wave of the abc corrective wave, the structure of wave c includes 5 small waves
- The strong and sharp price decrease last night can be said to be wave 3 in wave c being formed.
- We expect that the expected target of wave 3 is level 2365 and level 2345
- Then there could be a small correction to complete wave 4 before continuing to complete wave 5 as well as wave c of the correction.
- We observe the formation of wave 4 ending to determine the target of wave 5 as well as wave c of the correction
Trading plan
We continue to observe the completion of wave 3 and wait for the end of wave 4 to determine the target of wave 5 to buy.
Note: Sufficient TP, SL to be safe and win the market‼ ️Change data plan will be updated later.
Deekop's analysis is only a personal opinion with a desire to share its views with the community. I'm not always right. But my analysis always reflects my meticulous evaluation of what is best for an investment.
Today's trading trends, buy gold strategyAt the beginning of the trading session on May 23 (US time), world gold prices were under strong selling pressure due to tough sentiment in the minutes of the May monetary policy meeting just announced. The minutes show that US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are increasingly concerned about inflation.
The gold market is being greatly affected by the Fed's policy stance on the length of time it takes to cut interest rates. Experts say that US inflation reports are still not as expected. Thereby, the timing of the Fed's interest rate cut is unclear.
Experts from the World Gold Council predict that despite the Fed's tough arguments on monetary policy in recent times, gold will still maintain its upward momentum in the coming time.
Wall Street analysts said that it will take the market longer than expected for the Fed to determine for sure whether inflation has really decreased or not. Therefore, gold will remain stuck in monetary policy for quite a long time.
Gold will fall after the rebound, so go short gold!The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is hawkish, and some officials even stated that they can continue to raise interest rates if inflation rises, causing a large-scale withdrawal of market interest rate cut expectations. Gold has plummeted all the way, and the current lowest has reached around 2355.Although gold has rebounded in the short term, the overall rebound is still weak.
It is not easy to accurately determine what rhythm gold will maintain after experiencing a sharp decline.But the decline has definitely slowed down, and since gold appears weak during the rebound, gold may not see a retaliatory rebound in the future, and may digest the sharp decline with shocks. It is expected that the rebound of gold will be limited, so we still have to maintain the trading idea of short selling at high levels in our transactions.
At present, gold faces short-term resistance in the 2370-2375 area, which is also the short-term top-to-bottom conversion area. So if gold rebounds and hits this resistance area, I would definitely try to short gold first.
I share detailed trading strategies and trading signals every day. You can follow the channel at the bottom of the article to get detailed trading signals and learn trading logic. People who are already in it have already made a lot of money. Let us enjoy the journey of making money together. !
XAUUSD:Long first, then short
Gold continues to fall. It has dropped nearly 60$ from 2410 to now. The current main support is around 2352. The trading is long first and then short. On the rebound, focus on the resistance near 2378.
There is data today, please pay attention to risk control when trading during U.S. market time. Friends who want to follow my trading data, please contact me in advance.
XAUUSD SWING BUYLIMIT PROJECTIONKEY POINTS:
Analyst says gold to drift back to $2,355 if dollar keeps upward momentum
Fed minutes reflected discussion of possiblefurtherhikes
Price rise likely to temper discretionary gold buying - ANZ
Gold prices fell for a third straight session on Thursday after minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve meeting indicated that some officials were inclined to raise interest rates.
Spot gold
GOLD
fell 0.6% at $2,365.49 per ounce, as of 0638 GMT. Bullion hit a record high of $2,449.89 on Monday.
U.S. gold futures
GOLD
were down 1.1% at $2,367.60.
Today's trading strategy, Gold trendGold prices fluctuated sharply when some US Federal Reserve (FED) policymakers recommended that the organization wait a few more months to ensure inflation really cools down, before starting to cut. interest rate.
Reacting to this information, the USD increased in price compared to the Euro and many other currencies. Gold price today is in a disadvantageous position.
Under pressure from the USD, speculators may worry that holding gold will reduce profitability. So in last night's trading session, when gold was trading in the region of 2,400 USD/ounce, they massively sold out.
Gold breaks current price channel, strategy to buy GoldWorld gold prices continued to decline sharply with spot gold down 42.7 USD to 2,378 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at 2,382.1 USD/ounce, down 43.7 USD compared to yesterday morning.
The world precious metals market continues to be pressured by the policy stance of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) after the meeting minutes ended earlier this month. According to the minutes, although US monetary policy has become a secondary factor in the gold market, persistent inflation could create some selling pressure as it could force the Fed to raise interest rates again. .
This view goes completely against the recent statements of members of the US Monetary Policy Committee when they said that although they are not ready to cut interest rates because inflation is still high, they will not raise interest rates. capacity.
According to experts, the minutes reflect growing disappointment that consumer prices have not returned to the 2% target as firmly as expected.
Recently, gold has been greatly affected by the Fed's "hawkish" policy stance. Despite fluctuations, gold is still considered an effective investment asset thanks to its role in preventing inflation and diversifying investment portfolios. Experts believe that the roles driving the recent increase are still being maintained and are unlikely to change in the future.
Accurate trading signals for today
From the daily chart, the gold price is currently in an upward structure, and the trend is well maintained. The moving average system also shows that the gold price has not gone short. But the 4-hour short-term upward trend line has been broken.
From the perspective of the golden ratio, the current support of the gold price is at 0.236. This adjustment is a weak callback. The 1H Bollinger trend closed and then flattened, which is a typical shock signal. Therefore, although the bullish structure on the daily chart is intact, the small cycle is currently in a shock structure. The shape is now in a converging triangle state, so it is difficult to say whether to be bullish or bearish. There is no overwhelming technical reason. So if you say you are bullish or bearish, you really can't see the direction. But in terms of operation, what we can do is to sell high and buy low. According to the trading rules, you should sell when you encounter pressure and buy when you encounter support.
Today's support is at 2406 and the pressure is at 2428. The current price is obviously sold, there is no good position to set a loss, and the profit ratio is not suitable. Therefore, it is also necessary to buy at this position.
GOLD-Wednesday Analysis
The Fed will release minutes from its April 30-May 1 meeting on Wednesday, which may reflect more concerns about higher-than-expected inflation in the first quarter, as the meeting was held before the release of last week's consumer price inflation report. The Fed said at the meeting that it still prefers to eventually lower borrowing costs, but acknowledged that disappointing inflation data may delay rate cuts for a while. The minutes may also provide more details on the Fed's plans to slow the reduction of its balance sheet. It is worth mentioning that geopolitical concerns seem to have eased, with Israel reportedly reportedly reaching an agreement with the United States to shelve plans for a large-scale offensive against Rafah. But investors still need to pay attention to news related to the geopolitical situation.
The highest reached around 2450 on Monday and fluctuated between 2433-2416 on Tuesday. Although it is not certain that 2450 is definitely the short-term top of gold, it is certain that it is difficult to break through. Yesterday, 1D closed with a red candle, which means that it is not an absolute strong rise at present.
If it reaches 2433-2436, you can choose to sell, SL: 2442, if you want to buy, you can wait for 2387-2392
The above strategies are for your reference, but the market changes quickly, and you need to change your strategies in real time according to the trend, so that your success rate will increase.
What if you don't know how to trade? Join me as I analyze and provide ideas every day
XAUUSD: Continue shorting after rebound
After falling below the support, it fell rapidly. It has now reached the support platform and the rebound resistance is near 2400. The probability of a direct rise is unlikely, so we continue to focus on shorting after the rebound. The lower support first focuses on the vicinity of 2378.
2390 is coming, continue shorting after the reboundGold fell back to around 2405 as expected. Our short gold position today near 2418 ended up hitting TP again. It was a very good trading experience. In fact, as long as you follow me, you will easily find that I have recently reminded you to focus on shorting gold.In particular, the previous article reminded: short gold, and aiming at 2395-2390.
Judging from the recent trend of gold, the highs of gold's rebound are gradually lowering, while the lows are also constantly lowering, and it is already trying to fall below the wedge structure, so the short sellers are currently dominant. Although the short-term structure of gold is supported by the 2405-2400 area, since gold is already trying to touch this area, I think it is only a matter of time before gold falls below this area, and then gold is really going to fall towards the 2395-2390 area.
Gold is currently trying to fall below the wedge structure. Once it is confirmed to be effective, the space below gold will be completely opened, and gold is likely to continue its downward trend. Therefore, if the market does not stabilize, do not go long gold easily. We will mainly focus on short gold at high levels. As gold falls, the resistance area moves downwards, and we first focus on the 2415-2420 area resistance. The following focuses on the gains and losses at the 2400 position.
XAUUSD May 22, 2024 Is the current correction over?Hello everyone, DEEKOP is ready to bring the most accurate signals and assessments to everyone.
Financial freedom is true freedom.
Yesterday there were many statements from members of the Fed
1. Fed's Jefferson says it's too early to know whether deflation will last.
2. Fed's Mester says economic conditions do not support three rate cuts.
3. Fed's Bostic expects only one rate cut this year.
The main content is to maintain the increase in interest rates. This information continues to support the current adjustment period
Looking at the H1 chart we see
- The current correction process is likely to be an abcde triangle correction wave model.
- This process is likely entering the final stage of the correction. Looking at the price model, we wait for wave e to form to end the correction.
- The correction process is confirmed to be completed when the price breaks through the peak of wave d (2433.8), then the price continues to increase to the target of 2500
Trading plan
If price stays above 2406 we have a good buying zone at 2408
If the price breaks down to 2406 we have a good buying zone at 2401
Note: Sufficient TP, SL to be safe and win the market‼ ️Change data plan will be updated later.
Deekop's analysis is only a personal opinion with a desire to share its views with the community. I'm not always right. But my analysis always reflects my meticulous evaluation of what is best for an investment.