💡 XAUUSD: Forecast for the first week of MayAccording to the latest data from the World Gold Council (WGC), gold demand in the first quarter (excluding OTC demand) decreased by 5% over the same period to 1,102 tons, due to capital inflows from exchange-traded funds. Gold-backed ETFs continue to flow out. While including the sizable OTC buying activities of investors, total gold demand increased by 3% over the same period to 1,238 tons - the strongest first quarter of the year since 2016.
The first quarter showed no slowdown in central bank gold purchases, with net purchases of 290 tonnes being added to official holdings, only a fraction of which is currently reflected in IMF data.
However, last week Gold is showing an ongoing downtrend. Will gold turn around or break ATH?
Xauusdidea
Entry to sell Gold today, risk of big decreaseAnalysts said that although gold recorded its second consecutive week of decline after a 5-week recovery streak, in general, investor sentiment still remains optimistic about the precious metal.
According to analysts' opinions, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is clearly expressing its view that it will no longer be tough in monetary policy from now until the end of 2024. Specifically, in a recent press conference Recently, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell made it clear that the US Central Bank has no intention of raising interest rates.
In addition to monetary policy factors, experts also believe that the demand to buy gold from central banks is also one of the decisive factors pushing gold prices to a new record high.
World Gold Council (WGC) global research director Juan Carlos Artigas said that gold has proven to be the most diverse financial instrument, which is why central banks continue to hold gold.
There is a risk of decline, entry sell Gold todayWorld gold prices increased with spot gold increasing by 20.3 USD to 2,323 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at 2,332.8 USD/ounce, up 24.2 USD compared to yesterday morning.
The gold market entered the new trading week with solid gains, boosted by the weakening of the USD. The US Dollar Index fell to its lowest level in about a month as a recently released report showed that the US job market is weakening, which has increased expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will interest rate cuts this year.
ActivTrades senior analyst Ricardo Evangelista said that the number of jobs created last month was much less than experts forecast, combined with slowing wage growth, which will cause the Fed to consider easing. monetary policy this year.
According to the FedWatch tool, after the report, the market increased the likelihood that the Fed will conduct the first interest rate cut in September to 71%. Evangelista said that investors will wait for statements from some Fed officials this week to get more clues about the monetary policy trajectory of the US Central Bank. This expert also said that tensions in the Middle East will be a factor supporting gold this week.
Gold is bullish to the 2335-2345 area before falling backToday we made a good profit in gold long and short transactions, which gave us a good start for this week's trading. First, we shorted gold near the 2323 position in the morning. When gold fell back and touched the 2316 position many times, it stopped falling, so I closed the position near the 2317-2316 position in time to lock in profits in time;Then we went long gold near the 2315 position and set TP: 2328. Gold successfully hit TP during the rebound to above 2330; just now gold hit TP: 2320 again during the fall, and the total profit in today's transaction was: $23K. And continue the good results of 18 consecutive wins!
During today's rebound, gold strongly broke through the 2310-2315 resistance area and broke through the high point since May. Gold has turned from weak to strong in the short-term; it has successfully built a triple bottom structure in the short-term structure and established effective support below. The short-term upward momentum is intact, and gold still has the potential to continue to rise. However, as the weekly candle chart weakened last week, we must also be careful of the market falling back after rising high. The main pressure above is focused on the 2335-2345 area.
Therefore, we are still very flexible in the next transaction. First, we can use the support below to go long gold; after waiting for gold to rise, we can use the resistance area to short gold. In this way, we can strive for maximum profits in long and short transactions.
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XAUUSD:Latest trading signals
Hi guys, my family and I traveled for two weeks for my father's birthday. I hope everything is going well for everyone in these two weeks!
Gold successfully reached our target of 2280 on Friday. This time the profit is very good. At present, from the perspective of the pattern and indicators, there is a need for a rebound, so you can start to go long at a low level in Monday's trading.
During the trading process, focus on the resistance of the 2313-2327 range, followed by 2342-2352. This range is a strong resistance area. If the price touches this range, you can participate in shorts appropriately.
Consider the support around 2328. If it does not fall below, you can trade long again, and then continue to observe the 2342-2352 range. If it breaks through, then above 2358, there will be short opportunities again.
I will continue to update the specific trading information during the trading session. Please keep an eye on it. If you have any questions, leave me a message in time!
Have a good weekend!
XAUUSD Shorts from 2340 down towards 2300My analysis for gold this week aims to sustain the short-term bearish trend it has initiated. I have identified two promising supply zones away from liquidity that could potentially provide favorable setups. If price retraces initially, I will consider buying from my 4-hour demand zone up to the supply, ensuring I capitalize on available opportunities.
I'll wait for price to slow down and develop a Wyckoff distribution within the 1-hour supply zone. However, there's a possibility of price surging beyond it due to the existing imbalances above. This is because the supply zone I've identified at the extreme top is the most optimal. Additionally, there's still significant liquidity to the downside that must be addressed.
Confluences for GOLD sells are as follows:
- Price has caused a major shift in trend as well as a BOS to confirm this downside move.
- Lots of liquidity left to get taken to the downside like Asia lows and trendlines etc.
- Very clean supply away from liquidity on the 1-hourly as well as the 8-hourly
- If price is still wanting to go up these are still key levels for retracements.
- Gold has been very bullish and buyers are getting exhausted.
- Price has also taken ATH's which is a major liquidity point for price to make a reversal.
P.S. Given the ongoing war, gold tends to maintain its stability and continues to rise, being a robust commodity that doesn't always correlate with the dollar index. At present, I'm awaiting the activation of my points of interest (POIs) to initiate my strategy.
Gold has successfully built a bottom, start long goldToday officially starts a new week of trading journey. Today, gold rebounded again after testing near 2391, reaching a maximum near 2324. During the rebound, gold strongly broke through the 2310-2315 resistance area, and more importantly, it broke through the 2320 position, the NFP market high last Friday, and the short-term trend of gold turned from weak to strong.
In addition, gold has built a triple bottom structure in the short-term structure, and the support below is solid. There should be room for gold to continue to rise in the short-term. Therefore, we shorted gold near the 2323 position in the morning, and I have manually closed the position near the 2317 position to lock in profits in time. And it is recommended to look for opportunities to do long gold.
Therefore, in trading, we can rely on the 2315-2310 area as support and wait for opportunities to do long gold. The upper resistance is in the 2330-2335 area.I share detailed trading strategies and trading signals every day. You can follow the channel at the bottom of the article to get detailed trading signals and learn trading logic. People who are already in it have already made a lot of money. Let us enjoy the journey of making money together. !
XAUUSD:Sell, final target 2218
Gold fell again at the opening of Monday. Currently, the support is at 2286-2278, and the resistance continues to be observed near 2313. The focus of this week's trading is to short at high levels, with the final target near 2218.
If the shorts are strong and fall below the support near 2278, strong support will appear in the range of 2274-2269 in a short period of time, which is a relatively good long price. At that time, the resistance of the rebound will focus on the vicinity of 2296.
Current Gold trading trend,sell first and wait for the buy priceLast week, the world gold price in the first session of the week traded at 2,335 USD/ounce. In the following sessions, gold prices could not maintain the mark above 2,340 USD and began to decline, reaching the lowest level of the week below 2,283 USD.
World gold price increased again above 2,325 USD/ounce after the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced information on the roadmap to adjust interest rates. However, gold prices could not maintain their upward momentum and weakened at the end of the week.
Gold price on Kitco closed the trading week at 2,301 USD/ounce. June gold futures price closed at 2,309.70 USD/ounce, down about 1% compared to last Friday.
Kitco News's latest weekly gold survey shows that experts are less positive about gold's prospects in the short term. Most retail traders believe that gold prices will decrease or move sideways. According to a Wall Street survey, 40% believe that gold prices will continue to move sideways, 33% predict a decrease.
This week, the market is interested in notable economic information such as the US 10-year bond auction, preliminary consumer sentiment report from the University of Michigan,...
Gold is likely to increase again, today's trading trendWorld gold prices tend to increase with spot gold increasing by 1.5 USD compared to last week's closing level to 2,302.7 USD/ounce.
Experts assess that the gold market has just had an interesting week when it received a lot of information that affects the direction of this precious metal. Gold started a series of declines and reached the lowest mark below 2,283 USD/ounce at noon on May 1 (US time) from 2,335 USD/ounce at the beginning of the week. However, this precious metal regained momentum when the US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced to keep interest rates unchanged and increased again above 2,325 USD/ounce. However, this precious metal was unable to maintain its recovery momentum and returned to test the level of 2,290 USD/ounce.
Although gold recorded its second consecutive week of decline after a 5-week recovery streak, experts still maintain optimism for this precious metal. Many opinions say that the US Central Bank has taken a not dovish stance on future monetary policy, but is certainly not "hawkish". At the press conference after the policy meeting in the middle of this week, Fed Chairman Powell made it clear that the Fed has no intention of raising interest rates.
“I think it is unlikely that interest rates will increase. I would say that is unlikely to happen,” Mr. Powell said.
Experts also say that the factors that pushed gold prices to record highs despite the Fed's stance still remain, including demand from central banks.
Gold has dropped dramatically,what is the opportunity to buy nowGold prices fell sharply in today's trading session, slipping from the $2,300/ounce level on concerns about higher, longer-term US interest rates ahead of this week's US Federal Reserve (FED) meeting. .
Weakening safe haven demand is also exerting pressure, especially as recent reports suggest ceasefire talks have resumed between Israel and Hamas. This makes gold even more vulnerable to interest rate risks.
But despite recent declines, gold prices still traded up more than 4% in April, extending the impressive gains seen in March.
The focus is now on the Fed meeting this weekend, where the central bank is expected to keep interest rates steady. But Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to take a more hawkish stance on interest rates, especially after a series of hot inflation indicators.
Signs of persistent inflation suggest traders have largely underestimated expectations for a near-term rate cut by the Fed. The central bank is currently only expected to cut interest rates in September or the fourth quarter, if at all this year.
Higher interest rates for longer periods bode poorly for gold because they increase the opportunity cost of investing in the yellow metal. The strength of the dollar, thanks to the outlook for stable exchange rates, is also putting pressure on broader metals markets.
Other precious metals also decreased in price today, accordingly, platinum futures prices decreased 0.1% to 959.05 USD/ounce, while silver futures prices decreased 1.8% to 27,168 USD. /ounce.
Profited $69K this week, continue to short goldToday is Sunday, and tomorrow we will start a new week of trading. Let’s first summarize this week’s trading results. This week we participated in a total of 20 market transactions, 18 of which ended in profit, and the remaining 2 transactions ended in loss, with a winning rate of exactly 90%. Our overall trading profit is very good. I personally made a profit of SWB:69K in this week's trading. I am very satisfied with this trading result! I hope we can still shine in next week’s market!
So what do you think of the gold market next week? The market is currently in a relatively obvious downward trend, with 2431 as the apex and 2418 as the sub-high. Since the retracement, the decline of gold has been significantly greater than the rebound. The negative candlesticks are obviously more than the positive candlesticks, and there are moves to reach new lows. In the short term, even if gold rebounds partially during the decline, it will fall back immediately after the rebound. The bulls have no counterattack. In the short term, the gold market is still controlled by the bears.
Therefore, we will still focus on shorting gold in the next transactions, and the rebound of gold will give us the opportunity to short gold. In the short term, we will mainly focus on the resistance in the 2305-2310 area and the 2315-2320 area. The following will first focus on the support of the 2385-2380 area and the 2375-2370 area below.
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XAUUSD: Short, target 2348-2333/2304-2280
The 30m chart has formed a head and shoulders, with support near 2363 and rebound resistance near 2383. If it does not break, go short. The 4h indicator on the trend is beneficial to shorts. This week, the focus is on short trading. The short-term target is around 2348-2333, and the final target is around 2304-2280.
NFP! Short gold!The trend of gold today is particularly cautious. It has basically been oscillating in a narrow range around the 2300 position and is waiting for guidance from NFP data. As for how to view the NFP market, I have shared my detailed views in my previous article.
In general terms, I am still bearish on gold, and I tend to be short on gold in my trading. Judging from the recent trend, gold has determined that 2430 is the top. The short-term bullish structure has been partially digested during today's narrow range; on the other hand, U.S. inflation remains high. Although the Federal Reserve has not decided to raise interest rates, the market's expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve are also decreasing.It also suppressed gold to a certain extent. So even if gold rebounds to a certain extent, I think gold's rebound space is limited.
Then we can boldly short gold in the NFP market. According to the current gold trend, I predict that gold will not exceed 2325 in the local rebound, so we mainly focus on the 2305-2310 area and the 2320-2325 area.If gold rebounds into this area, we could consider shorting gold. Once NFP is negative for gold, gold is likely to continue its correction to 2270, or even near 2260.
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GOLD-analyze
Today you need to pay attention to the impact of US non-farm payrolls data and unemployment rate on gold in April.
Today's golden range is 2280-2344, and the small range is 2290-2330
You can trade within the range. Every Friday's trend is quite unexpected. You need to have stricter SL to prevent gold from causing you greater losses because the data breaks through the range.
Non-agricultural employment was as high as 303,000 last month, and this time it is expected to be 243,000. The probability of the data being higher than 240,000 is slim. To a large extent, it is still lower than 240,000, which means it is a bullish situation for gold, but we need to wait for the release of data to know the details
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Profited $14K, NFP is expected to rise and then fall backThis morning, I shorted gold near 2326.31, and as gold fell back to hit TP: 2315, I profited and left the market; I added positions and went long gold near 2296 and 2286, and as gold bottomed out, it hit TP again: 2300 profit and exit. The total profit exceeded GETTEX:14K , which was another good profit for several days in a row!
Tomorrow will usher in a golden highlight moment, because NFP will be released tomorrow, which will definitely intensify short-term fluctuations and even guide the short-term direction of gold. It is a challenge but also an opportunity. In my opinion, gold is likely to rise first and then fall under the influence of NFP market!
Judging from the recent economic data in the United States, the U.S. economy is strong, which limits gold’s upside to a certain extent. Moreover, high inflation has not yet been completely resolved, so the market’s expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates are decreasing, which is also negative for gold to a certain extent. In addition, gold has also confirmed the validity of the 2430 top at the technical level, so the overall short trend of gold has been established.At least gold has demand to extend its decline. So why does gold rise before falling?
Because gold has been weak recently and shorts have gradually gained the upper hand, the market is likely to need to use NFP data to kill a batch of short positions first and harvest some funds;In addition, gold has fallen ahead of schedule in the past two days, touching the 2285-2280 area many times, which is likely to reserve room for growth in the NFP market in advance. In the short-term structure, gold's technical bottom-out rebound creates a double-bottom structure in the short-term structure, which is helpful for gold's short-term rise. Therefore, in the NFP market, gold is very likely to rise and fall, and continue its decline.
Judging from the current trend, if gold rebounds first, we will first focus on the 2325-2330 area and the 2350-2355 area above. If gold rebounds first with the help of NFP data, I predict that gold is likely to touch the 2325-2330 area during the rebound, and may even try to touch the 2350-2355 area, and then fall back or even continue to fall to the 2270-2260 area. Therefore, in this process, there is a good opportunity to participate in gold trading, and the profit is definitely not small. I will definitely not miss this good opportunity once a month.After all, there are always markets, but opportunities are hard to come by!
I share detailed trading strategies and trading signals every day. You can follow the channel at the bottom of the article to get detailed trading signals and learn trading logic. People who are already in it have already made a lot of money. Let us enjoy the journey of making money together. !
World gold suddenly increased 23xxGold grew to become to boom strongly once more and the gold marketplace is retaining a stable boom above 2,three hundred USD/ounce, however does now no longer see any new momentum, because the US Federal Reserve (FED) continues its economic coverage stance. Currency regulations and warnings that inflation stays a hard trouble to solve.
As expected, americaA principal financial institution left the federal budget price among 5.25% and 5.50%. Although financial and inflation dangers stay in stability, the principal financial institution stated constantly better inflation.
“In current months, there was a loss of in addition development closer to the Commission`s 2% inflation target,” the principal financial institution stated in its economic coverage announcement.
The gold marketplace did now no longer react plenty to the notably impartial economic coverage stance. June gold futures final traded at $2,316.20 consistent with ounce, up 0.57% at the day.
According to a few analysts, this announcement suggests that the FED is in no hurry to begin the easing cycle while customer expenses are nonetheless rising. The principal financial institution has made clean that it'll most effective begin reducing hobby quotes while it's miles assured that inflation will fall lower back to its 2% target.
Although the Fed is retaining a restrictive economic coverage for the foreseeable future, marketplace liquidity can also additionally start to alternate because the Fed slows down its stability sheet withdrawals.
“Beginning in June, the Committee will sluggish the tempo of discounts in its securities holdings through decreasing the month-to-month repurchase restriction for Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion. The Committee will hold the month-to-month repurchase restriction for corporation debt and corporation mortgage-sponsored securities at $35 billion and could reinvest any foremost bills in extra of this restriction in securities Treasury securities,” the principal financial institution stated.
Gold rebounded as expected and made a profit of $17KGold rebounded as expected. I believe that many people were chasing short gold yesterday and today. However, after gold fell sharply, I have reminded everyone not to be overly bearish on gold. Gold may have a short-term rebound and repair.And it is very likely to copy the trend after April 23. We first went long gold in gold trading today. After gold rebounded as expected and touched above 2310, we looked for opportunities to participate in short-term short gold. In both long and short transactions, the transaction ended by hitting TP, with a total profit of $17K.
At present, gold has rebounded as expected and touched above 2310. However, gold is not particularly strong during the rebound, so it is difficult for gold to form a unilateral trend in a short period of time. It even needs to continue its energy in the form of shocks like the previous period. So even if we see gold rebound and rise, we cannot be overly bullish on gold. I think gold is most likely to replicate the trend of April 23, so for the short term, we can see that the short-term top position is in the 2325-2330 area, and it may not even touch this area.
Therefore, during the rebound of gold, we cannot be overly bullish on gold. Moreover, before the interest rate decision and non-agricultural data are released, it will be difficult for gold to do much, and it may even need news guidance to break the current volatile trend. Therefore, before breaking through the volatile trend, for the current short-term, both long and short sides have the potential to make profits.
The top will first focus on the 2310-2315 area, followed by the 2325-2330 area. We can wait for opportunities to short gold around these two areas; and as gold rebounds, the bottom will first focus on the 2295-2290 area, followed by the 2285-2280 area. Similarly, we can look for opportunities to do long gold around these two areas. I share detailed trading strategies and trading signals every day. You can follow the channel at the bottom of the article to get detailed trading signals and learn trading logic. People who are already in it have already made a lot of money. Let us enjoy the journey of making money together. !