XAU/USD Longs from 2380 or 2340 back up to ATH.My bias this week is to look for buying opportunities to reach the all-time high liquidity. The price has been very bullish, breaking structure to the upside, which aligns with the overall trend. I will focus on near-term demand zones to continue this trend, expecting the price to retrace and mitigate one of these zones.
I will monitor either the 15-hour or 17-hour demand zones for signs of price slowing down and forming a Wyckoff accumulation pattern. If the price continues to rise and creates a new all-time high, I will then look for potential sell opportunities as the price comes back down.
Confluences for GOLD Buys are as follows:
- Price broke structure the upside on the higher time frame leaving new zones.
- These higher highs and higher lows indicate the rise of a new uptrend.
- New demand zones are left on the 15hr and the 17hr where I can look for potential buys.
- Still lots of liquidity to the upside that needs to be taken i.e. ATH's
P.S. Once the price enters these zones, I will focus on buying opportunities, as I prefer to trade with the trend. I will only consider short positions if the price significantly breaks down.
With little news this week, happy trading, and I hope you all have a great week!
Xauusdidea
XAUUSD week 3, May 2024 How far will the increase continue?Hello everyone, DEEKOP is ready to bring the most accurate signals and assessments to everyone.
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Last week, we saw that the US economy also sent remarkable messages. For the first time, the number of applications for unemployment benefits decreased despite the softening of the labor market, this shows that the American people are gradually adapting to the current controlled economy, plus the CPI released last week has increased beyond expectations, this will create motivation for the Fed to continue maintaining high interest rates in the near future
Besides, we see some notable points: the assassination of the Slovak prime minister, we know that Slovakia is a pro-Russian country, or the Russian president's official visit to China, which raises concerns about risks. global geopolitical risk. In addition to geopolitical concerns, this visit of Russian President Putin may promote the development of the BRISC bloc, which will accelerate the purchase of gold by the central banks of this bloc to prepare gold reserves. designed to strengthen the bloc's common currency
Although the US economic situation will still keep high interest rates to restrain inflation, this will create strength for the USD, but the current geopolitical fluctuations in the world will still create conditions for gold prices to increase and volatility to occur. The gold became a safe place for him to hide
Looking at the 1D chart, we rely on the Elliot wave principle to analyze price movements
- Last week we saw a strong price increase and currently the price is clinging to the peak of 2433.
- At this point, it is still early to conclude whether correction wave 4 has completed or not.
- We have the price level that confirms the completion of wave 4 and the start of wave 5 at 2433.
- If next week the price breaks out through 2433 then we have confirmation that wave 4 has completed and the price is in rising wave 5 then we will measure 2 expected price targets for the end of wave 5 which is the 2500 area. and area 2550
- If the price cannot break the 2433 zone and turns down, then the price is still in correction wave 4 and at a smaller wave level, the price will complete wave b and will continue to complete wave c as shown on the chart.
- Then wave b is confirmed when the price breaks out through the 2280 area, then we will have the target to end wave c measured at the price range 2455 and 2211
Above is Deekop's plan for next week and the daily plan will be updated by Deekop every day
Note: Sufficient TP, SL to be safe and win the market‼ ️Change data plan will be updated later.
Deekop's analysis is only a personal opinion with a desire to share its views with the community. I'm not always right. But my analysis always reflects my meticulous evaluation of what is best for an investment.
Don’t chase long gold too muchGold rose strongly today, reaching its highest level near 2419. It has now fallen back and is trading near 2406. I have been emphasizing since yesterday to close all short positions in the 2380-2375 area and commit to long gold. After going long gold yesterday, we continued to go long gold near the 2382 position today and successfully hit TP: 2390. .Today continues to end in profit in trading.
At present, gold has risen strongly to near the 2419 position. The bullish sentiment in the market is high and the market following sentiment is prevalent. Therefore, I do not recommend shorting gold. After all, gold may continue to rise due to the market's pursuit; although the trend of gold is still very strong, but since today is Friday, I don’t recommend going long on gold directly at the moment, because gold immediately fell back after rising high many times, forming multiple upper shadow lines, and faced the resistance of the previous sub-high 2418-2420 area.
Therefore, it is not recommended to directly pursue long gold before gold falls back to prevent short-term gold decline caused by profit realization.So if your trading style is prudent, I suggest you wait and see first and don’t rush to participate in the transaction; if you have an aggressive trading style, for now, I don’t recommend chasing long gold directly.On the contrary, you can consider trying to short gold in the 2414-2416 area to gain short-term short profits first, and wait for gold to fall back before going long gold!
I share detailed trading strategies and trading signals every day. You can follow the channel at the bottom of the article to get detailed trading signals and learn trading logic. People who are already in it have already made a lot of money. Let us enjoy the journey of making money together. !
GOLD-uptrend
U.S. consumer prices rose less than expected in April, suggesting inflation resumed its downward trend at the start of the second quarter, boosting financial market expectations for a September interest rate cut. At the same time, under the influence of the market, the US dollar fell sharply, providing greater impetus to gold’s rise. Today, we will pay attention to the changes in the number of initial jobless claims in the United States and the performance of real estate market data. Pay attention to the monthly rate of U.S. industrial output in April and the speeches of Federal Reserve officials, and pay attention to news related to the geopolitical situation.
The current gold price is a very obvious strong rise. It has just risen sharply during the cycle and gradually broke through the upper high point. If there is no unexpected data and news on Thursday and Friday, the possibility of reversal is unlikely, so now it is rising. Trend, follow the trend, wait for the support point to buy and the probability of profit is higher.
You can see that 2378 is the turning point of strength and weakness. You can buy at 2378-2380 and set SL. If it falls below 2375, gold will change the pattern of strong rise and turn into a shock and slow rise.
The above strategies are for your reference, but the market changes quickly, and you need to change your strategies in real time according to the trend, so that your success rate will increase.
What if you don't know how to trade? Join me as I analyze and provide ideas every day
Gold falls as Fed officials downplay interest rate cutsThe yellow steel fell on Thursday after a sequence of Fed officers warned towards making a bet on a direct hobby fee reduce.
Some individuals of the primary financial institution`s hobby-fee-placing committee stated the primary financial institution will want a lot greater convincing that inflation is easing past a moderate blip in April.
This shows buyers are beginning to provide a few desire for a fee reduce in September. The greenback and Treasury yields additionally recovered from in advance declines this week.
However, a few lower-than-predicted customer rate index figures positioned gold on a trajectory for a 0.7% weekly gain.
Gold is forecast to continue to decline deeplyGold prices steadied in Asian trading today after posting strong overnight gains as some mild inflation data dragged the dollar to a one-month low and raised expectations of a rate cut. capacity.
The yellow metal has now returned to record highs reached in May, as traders bet more that the US Federal Reserve (FED) will start cutting interest rates as soon as September. The dollar fell sharply on Wednesday on this view, which should benefit overall metal prices.
Gold prices are up more than 1% from Wednesday after data showed US consumer price index inflation fell in April from March, while core CPI also fell from the previous month.
The figures, followed by weaker-than-expected retail sales data, raised hopes that inflation will ease in the coming months, giving the Fed more confidence in starting to cut interest rates.
The CME Fedwatch tool shows traders are pricing in a higher likelihood of a 25 basis point cut in September, at nearly 54%.
High interest rates push up the opportunity cost of investing in gold and other precious metals because they do not bring direct profits. The yellow metal could also benefit from increased safe-haven demand if the US economy cools further this year.
Slight fluctuations after a series of increasing daysWorld gold prices turned down with spot gold dropping 9.5 USD to 2,375.5 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at $2,380.90 an ounce, down $14 from the bright spot.
According to Kitco Metals senior analyst Jim Wyckoff, gold turned around due to normal pressure after recent gains. On that side, the recovery of the US Dollar index also added strength to gold. The dollar rose 0.2% after hitting a multi-month low in the previous session as the latest data showed US consumer prices rose less than expected in April.
Meanwhile, New York Fed President John Williams said that the positive news surrounding the cooling off job is not enough for the US Central Bank to make an early decision to slow down.
Although gold turned down, most experts are still optimistic about gold in the future, predicting that this precious metal will soon conquer new records in the coming months.
MarketGauge's director of trading education and research Michele Schneider said that while it doesn't want to start a cycle of monetary policy easing just yet, it's clear the Fed also doesn't want to push interest rates higher and that conditions will eventually deliver. solid level of support for the precious type
Close all short positions and buy goldI shorted gold at 2385, 2390 and 2395 overnight according to the trading strategy. If you read my last article carefully, I believe you have not missed the short trading plan. Currently, gold has fallen back to around 2383. I have Closed all short positions at 2384 and is considering going long gold.
Although gold continued to fall today, it showed strong resilience during the decline. Yesterday I mentioned in the article that before gold hits the 2400 target, there must be a need for a correction, which will be more conducive for gold to hit 2400 or even higher. I originally expected gold to fall back to the 2375-2370 area, but based on the current strength of gold's decline, gold does not even have the ability to fall below the 2380-2375 area support.
So in the short term, I think gold has pulled back enough so I closed all my short positions. And I am considering going long gold around the 2380-2375 area support, target: 2402.I share detailed trading strategies and trading signals every day. You can follow the channel at the bottom of the article to get detailed trading signals and learn trading logic. People who are already in it have already made a lot of money. Let us enjoy the journey of making money together. !
After 2 consecutive sessions of strong increases in world gold In his speech in Amsterdam, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that inflation is still high and the Fed will have to spend more time in this fight. He said the Fed will maintain restrictive monetary policy until inflation falls to its 2% target.
Marex analyst Edward Meir said that the fact that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell did not signal a rise in interest rates is a positive thing for gold and could help this precious metal increase further.
The weakening of the USD and Treasury yields following US producer price data in April also provided momentum for the yellow metal.
After 2 consecutive sessions of strong increases in world gold prices, gold prices today will continue to increase following the increase in world gold prices./.
Will gold continue to hit new highs? Or a callback?
Gold continues to rise in Asian markets. Continuing to the London market. The current price of gold remains at 2261. Combined with the high point ahead, visual inspection shows a double top trend. This is not a good trading position at the moment. Focus on paying attention first. If it breaks through the previous high point and fails to stabilize later, you can sell gold at a high price.
Gold continues to go up, entry buy todayCooling US inflation pushed gold prices up nearly 30 USD an ounce, and helped Wall Street set a new record.
Closing the trading session on May 15, each ounce of world gold for immediate delivery increased by 27 USD to 2,385 USD. During the session, gold price at one point touched 2,390 USD - the highest in nearly a month.
The market went up due to the weakening of the USD and falling US government bond yields, after the country announced that April inflation increased more slowly than forecast. This data has strengthened the possibility of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) reducing interest rates.
The US consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.3% last month. In February and March, the increase was 0.4%. This shows that inflation has restored its downward trend, giving investors more confidence that the Fed will lower interest rates from September.
CPI "may be an early indicator showing that in the long term, inflation will cool down and the Fed will have the first decision to reduce interest rates," said Phillip Streible - market strategist at Blue Line Futures. CME FedWatch tracker shows that investors currently place a 74% chance of a Fed rate cut in September.
The index tracking USD prices with a basket of major currencies - Dollar Index yesterday decreased 0.6%, reaching its lowest level in more than a month. This makes gold more attractive to buyers outside the US. The 10-year US government bond yield also fell to a one-month low.
Still determining the upward price trend, today's trading strateWorld gold prices increased sharply with spot gold increasing by 27.4 USD to 2,385 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at 2,391.8 USD/ounce, up 31.9 USD compared to yesterday morning.
Gold prices rose to their highest level in more than 3 weeks on May 15 (US time) thanks to support from the weakness of the greenback and falling yields after the latest inflation report. Published data showed that the US consumer price index in April increased less than expected, increasing the possibility of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The dollar fell 0.5% to its lowest level in more than a month, making gold more attractive to holders of other currencies. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields also hit a more than 1-month low.
The CPI data “could be an early sign that over time inflation will cool and the Fed will make its first rate cut,” Blue Line Futures chief market strategist Phillip Streible said.
The CPI rose 0.3% last month after rising 0.4% in March and February, suggesting inflation continued its downward trend at the beginning of the second quarter. This has pushed up financial market expectations of an interest rate cut in September. According to Reuters poll results, economists forecast CPI to increase 0.4% in the month and up 3.4% over the month. with the same period last year.
Technically, bullish gold futures have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Kitco Metals senior analyst Jim Wyckoff wrote in a note that bulls' next upside target is to produce a close for June futures above solid resistance. probably at 2,400 USD/ounce.
Is there still a chance for short sellers to make a profit?Judging from the recent trend of gold, there is no doubt that the buying power is stronger, so overall gold maintains a bullish pattern.However, in the short-term structure, gold also falls sharply during its rise, which brings considerable difficulties to our transactions.I believe that in the past two days in gold trading, many people should have lost money because of hitting SL. The characteristics of the current gold market are very obvious. The bulls will not stop, but the shorts will not die. During the rise, gold will also suddenly fall in the short-term structure, leaving us unprepared.
Gold currently reaches its highest level near 2388, which is only one step away from 2400. According to the current structure of gold, it seems that it is certain to hit the 2400 level. So do gold shorts still have a chance? I think gold shorts should still have a chance. Gold is currently trading near the 2388 position, and the rise has slowed down. It faces resistance in the 2390-2395 area in the short term; and gold has been too hasty in the short-term rise, so I have reason to believe that,gold still needs a correction after hitting the resistance in the 2390-2395 area. Only after it is confirmed that it has stepped back on the support can it be more conducive for gold to rise and hit the 2400 target.
Moreover, gold has gone through a violent ups and downs and has completely wiped out all short positions. When gold is generally extremely bullish, gold shorts may also counterattack in the short-term structure, and the market will harvest more funds. Therefore, it is not that there are no opportunities for gold shorts, so I will still continue to short gold near the 2389-2390 position, waiting for gold to step back in the short-term structure, and first focus on the 2375-2370 area support below.
GOLD-Pay attention to the impact of CPI data
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he was less confident than before that inflation will come down. However, it emphasized that it does not believe that the next step may be to raise interest rates, and is more likely to maintain the policy interest rate at the current level. The U.S. economy is performing very well and has a very strong labor market. GDP is expected to continue growing at 2% or higher. The PPI data is actually quite mixed, with uncertainty as to whether inflation will persist. Today we are paying attention to the seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate data in the United States at the end of April. It is expected to have a greater impact on the market. Please pay attention to the risks.
Since gold's slow decline to bottom out at 2330 on Monday, it has turned from a weak shock to a strong shock. It can be seen from Tuesday's U.S. market that even if the data is not conducive to gold, it is difficult to suppress the slow rise of gold. The U.S. market has been gradually rising. performance, and fell back to a high of 2360 for the second time. It is determined that today is a strong performance. Therefore, the current view is that it is a strong rise for the time being.
From a technical point of view, the daily line closed above the Bollinger Band on Tuesday. Although it has not yet formed a unilateral rise, the current strong state may reach the daily Bollinger Band high of around 2378, including the 4H cycle. , during the continuous rise, the 4H K-line maintained strong continuous green candles, and the rising momentum was very strong. Let’s first look at the Bollinger upper track high near 2372 for Wednesday’s rise.
If the European market continues to rise, I think you can sell when it reaches the resistance point of 2375-2378 for the first time, or wait for the support point of 2342-2345 to buy, and set the SL
There is CPI data in the US market. It is expected that the market will fluctuate greatly and the risk will be relatively high. If you don’t want to bet on the data, you can wait for the data to be released and follow the trend to trade.
The above strategies are for your reference, but the market changes quickly, and you need to change your strategies in real time according to the trend, so that your success rate will increase.
What if you don't know how to trade? Join me as I analyze and provide ideas every day
XAUUSD:A double top may form
Gold focuses on observing the support near 2358. If it falls below, there is a high probability that a double top pattern will appear, and the price will return to the 2347-2333 range again. When it cannot break the 2347-2353 resistance, the next space will be the 2318-2307 range.
General trading strategy today, which areas should Sell and Buy?Gold prices in Asia increased in the afternoon trading session on May 14, as the market is awaiting important inflation reports expected to be released this week, for more clues about the speed and scale of interest cuts. interest rate of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year.
Spot gold price increased 0.2% to 2,338.78 USD/ounce, while gold futures price increased 0.1% to 2,344.70 USD/ounce.
The US producer price index (PPI) is expected to be announced at 6:30 p.m. Vietnam time, followed by the consumer price index (CPI) on May 15. According to a Reuters poll, CPI figures are forecast to show core inflation rising 0.3% in April from the previous month, down from 0.4% in March, pulling down the inflation rate. annual inflation down to 3.6%.
If gold can hold above the level of 2,320-2,330 USD/ounce, it is a positive sign, meaning gold is gaining momentum in the short term. And with the push from weaker CPI figures (if any), he thinks gold is likely to rise to all-time highs in the short term.
The weak jobs report and lower-than-expected US non-farm payrolls reported in April released last week have increased expectations about the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates this year. According to a majority of economists polled by Reuters news agency, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice this year, starting in September.