Gold price faces strong headwinds ahead of Federal Reserve meet
After testing resistance at $2,700 at the start of the week, gold is once again on the back foot as stubborn inflation takes its toll on expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle. The precious metal received a much-needed boost earlier this week as investors reacted to news that China’s central bank resumed buying gold. After a six-month break, data from the People’s Bank of China showed it purchased five tonnes of gold in November. According to many analysts, the data underscores China’s significant role in the gold market and highlights healthy central bank demand heading into 2025. ..
Xauusdidea
Turning to long goldBros, today gold continued to retreat, and the current lowest has reached around 2665, and the short trend of gold is obvious.
So where will gold fall? Should we continue to short gold? In fact, from the perspective of the gold structure, the 2665-2655 area is the bottom position of the rising relay in the rising structure, so this area plays an important supporting role. If gold cannot fall below this area, then gold's current downward trend is merely a correction to the rising trend. Therefore, gold may still rebound with the help of the 2665-2655 area, or it may hit the 2680-2690 area again.
So in terms of short-term trading, when most people are still shorting gold, I quietly started to go long on gold! Brors, let's wait and see! If you want to learn more detailed trading ideas and get more trading signals, you can choose to join the channel at the bottom of the article to make trading no longer difficult and make making money a pleasure!
XAU/USD 13 December 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Bias/analysis remains the same as analysis dated 25 November 2024. Awaiting candle closure to confirm bullish iBOS
Price Action Analysis:
As mentioned in yesterday's analysis dated 24 November 2024, whereby price was expected to print a bearish CHoCH. This is how price printed.
Currently, price is trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price is anticipated to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, which is marked in blue, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 2,721.420.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Price Action Analysis:
Yesterday's intraday analysis played out with price targeting weak internal low at priced 2,700.810.
Price has just printed a further bearish iBOS.
Following bearish iBOS we expect a pullback. Current CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dotted line.
We are now trading within an internal high and fractal low. You will note internal range has been significantly narrowed, however, price could print lower which would extend the depth of the internal range
Intraday Expectation:
Price is expected to indicate pullback initiation by printing a bullish CHoCH.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
Buy gold, TP: 2690-2695Bros, today gold fell sharply and fell below 2695 due to the negative impact of PPI data on the gold market. I reminded in the previous opinion that the 2700-2695 area is the last line of defense for bulls. Once gold falls below this area, it is easy to be sold and continue to fall.
So today I went long on gold near 2702 as planned. After gold fell below 2695, I strictly followed the trading plan and chose manual stop loss near 2693, ending the gold long position with a loss of $4.7K; then I followed up with a gold short position near 2693, and manually closed the position near 2683, ending the transaction with a profit of $4.9K.
It means everything I did in trading today was for nothing,fortunately, I strictly followed my trading plan and strategy to execute the transaction, so even if I lost money in the long transaction, I recovered the loss in the short transaction, and there was no loss overall. Relatively speaking, no loss is the greatest success.
At present, after gold is relatively stable, I have bought gold again near 2683, and the short-term important support below is 2675. I expect gold to rebound to at least 2690-2695. As for the result of the transaction, let us wait and see! If you want to learn more detailed trading ideas and get more trading signals, you can choose to join the channel at the bottom of the article to make trading no longer difficult and make making money a pleasure!
Technical and Fundamental Analysis Post-Breakout of 2721Analysis Expansion:
In the current market environment, gold continues to demonstrate strong upward momentum. Technically, the price has found support in the 2705-2710 range, with the RSI indicator consistently remaining in the bullish zone, suggesting that the market sentiment remains tilted toward the bulls. A breakout above the 2721 level would confirm the continuation of the uptrend, with the next key resistance likely to be around the 2740-2750 region.
From a fundamental perspective, the recent CPI data significantly increased market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, particularly in light of weak inflation figures. Market focus is now shifting to the upcoming PPI and initial jobless claims data, which may further fuel expectations for a dovish Fed policy. If the PPI data shows weakness or if initial jobless claims rise substantially, gold could see additional bullish momentum.
Therefore, the strategy remains focused on long positions, with an eye on buying opportunities in the 2705-2710 range. If gold breaks above 2721, it will open the door for further upside potential. Risk management is crucial in trading, and investors should remain flexible with their positions to avoid overexposure.
XAU/USD 12 December 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Bias/analysis remains the same as analysis dated 25 November 2024. Awaiting candle closure to confirm bullish iBOS
Price Action Analysis:
As mentioned in yesterday's analysis dated 24 November 2024, whereby price was expected to print a bearish CHoCH. This is how price printed.
Currently, price is trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price is anticipated to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, which is marked in blue, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 2,721.420.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Price Action Analysis:
As highlighted in yesterday's analysis dated 11 December 2024, price was expected to print a bullish iBOS to narrow the internal range, and this is precisely how price printed.
Following bullish iBOS, price printed a bearish iBOS.
We are now trading within an established internal range. While price has not yet printed a bearish CHoCH, it has traded up to the premium of the 50% internal EQ.
Intraday Expectation:
Price is currently trading within the premium of internal 50% EQ. Technically, price is expected to target the weak internal low at 2,700.810.
Alternative Scenario:
Price may potentially seek further liquidity to complete a bullish iBOS on the H4, therefore, bearish momentum may face limitations.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
Gold May Rise to 2800In the future gold trend, focus on the points marked on the chart. 2704-2688-2675-2667-2652 are important supports, and the rising resistance is 2725-2750-2769-2788-2803
2666-2652 is an important support for the rising trend. In the next fluctuation, as long as this area is held and not broken, the rising trend will continue until around 2800. After that, 2750-2725 will become the support of the new trend.
Gold Rally Continues as CPI Data Set to Drive the Next MoveCurrently, the gold market is supported by escalating geopolitical tensions and the strong market expectation of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week. Gold prices have now approached the $2700 level. From a technical perspective, gold has broken above the 50-day moving average, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) showing a bullish signal, indicating strong upward momentum. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November will be released in two hours, and this report could significantly influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions at their meeting on December 17-18.
If the U.S. CPI data comes in weaker than expected, it may strengthen the market's expectation of Fed rate cuts in the coming months, which would push gold prices higher towards the November 25 high of $2721. Therefore, gold's short-term direction will largely depend on today's CPI data, and I believe the data will be supportive for gold prices.
Today's Strategy:
Long Position on Pullback: Consider going long if gold retraces to the 2690-2695 region, leveraging the current technical setup and market sentiment.
Wait for CPI Data: It is advisable to await the release of CPI data and adjust positions based on market reaction.
Disclaimer: The above analysis is for informational purposes only. All trading decisions should be made with strict risk management and without over-leveraging.
Sorry, I'm already short goldBros, the expected CPI disappointed me. And the original plan to buy gold at 2580 was stranded because gold did not fall back effectively, so I had to give up the original plan to buy gold.
Gold moved very strongly today, with both bulls and bears fiercely competing around 2700. But for now, after gold continued its rebound to the 2700-2705 area, it did not usher in explosive emotional buying, and the price of gold did not rise sharply. Instead, it has been fluctuating in the 2700-2705 area. In the fierce game between long and short sides, the short force is not completely without opportunities, so since there is no opportunity to participate in the long gold, we might as well prepare in advance to see the decline and retracement of gold.
In addition, from the perspective of candlestick charts, even if gold continues to rise, it needs to build a W-shaped structure in the structure to support the continued rise of gold. Therefore, in the short term, gold still needs to fall back!
Bros, I have already shorted gold in the 2700-2705 area. Do you think gold will pull back? If you want to learn more detailed trading ideas and get more trading signals, you can choose to join the channel at the bottom of the article to make trading no longer difficult and make making money a pleasure!
XAUUSD: Last Idea Gave Us 940+ Pips, What about Next?Dear Traders,
Hope you are doing well, our last entry moved well and better than what we had expected, due to that reason mainly and how price have moved and its behaviour gave us indication of bullish continuous dominance that will take price upwards of 2790$ region one more time before it reverse. Remember our bias will change depending on how price moves so if you see a different bias do not be shocked or confused. Please refer to the time when the chart was published.
Good luck.
#XAUUSD: Possible clear move happening next weekGold has been trading sideways with no clear view of the market, making it difficult to trade swing or even intraday, we wanted to share our view early, however, since the price is not clear yet. We waited until today, now we can see price either can move up without taking out sell side liquidity or might take out the sell side liquidity and then moves upwards. Good luck.
XAUUSD Gold Trade Idea👀👉 XAUUSD Gold has rallied, evidenced by this break in market structure on the four-hour timeframe. I’m monitoring for a potential buying opportunity on a retracement, as outlined on the chart. Please remember, my analyses are purely educational and should not be considered financial advice. 📉✅
Gold forms a secondary high and will fall sharply againHello everyone. Today we can see that the 4-hour chart seems to need to form a triple top resistance at the secondary high point.
It can be found that the current trend of the 4-hour chart is very similar to the previous one. Both are after a long period of consolidation and then fall sharply again
Therefore, if the current trend of gold replicates the previous market after touching the resistance area, then you must be careful of a sharp drop in CPI
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Gold Breaks Key Resistance Bullish Momentum Expected to ContinueSpot gold continues to extend yesterday’s bullish momentum, driven by a combination of factors, including growing concerns over global geopolitical tensions, an increased demand for safe-haven assets, and market expectations of potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. These fundamental factors have provided strong support for gold prices.
From a technical perspective, spot gold has successfully broken above and closed above the key resistance level of $2660. This breakout has provided fresh momentum for bulls, and indicators on the daily chart, such as the RSI and MACD, show positive upward momentum, suggesting gold could continue to test the $2700 mark in the near term.
Today’s Strategy:
Long Position on Pullback: Consider entering long positions if gold retraces to the 2665-2670 region, capitalizing on the current bullish momentum. If prices break and hold above $2700, further upward movement is likely.
Risk Management: Given the high volatility in the gold market, it is essential to implement strict stop-loss orders to protect against sharp price fluctuations due to unforeseen events.
Disclaimer: The above analysis is for informational purposes only. All trading decisions should be made with strict risk management in place and avoid over-leveraging.
Targeting 2687 After Solid GainsToday, after buying near 2658, we reached our target of 2666-2673 and made a good profit. The market then pulled back, releasing some selling pressure before returning to around 2670. We still need to watch the resistance at 2673. Based on the current trend, it looks likely to break. Therefore, the next target could be higher, ideally 2687. If the selling pressure is too strong, once the price hits 2680, it's a good point to close the position.