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XAUUSD / SENSETIVE AREA TRADING - 4HXAUUSD / 4HTIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS Yesterday: Gold prices declined by 1.70%. Today: Prices began to recover, rising by 0.95%.Analysts expect a further increase in prices, potentially reaching gains of 1.50% Gold is currently trading below a supply zone between $2,655 and $2,665. This zone represents a key resistance level, where sellers may dominate and prevent further price If gold continues to trade below the $2,655–$2,665 supply zone, it could decline further, with support levels at $2,637 and $2,614. If the price breaks above the supply zone, it may rise towards $2,686, a potential resistance level. Despite the recent dip, the market is under bullish pressure, indicating that buyers are still in control and could push prices higher in the near future. Supply Zone : 2,655 and 2,665$. Demand Zone : 2,637$ and 2,614$.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ArinaKarayi
1
XAU/USD 01 October 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. The price has continued its surge, reaching all-time highs with minimal pullbacks. The bearish swing pullback phase has now been confirmed by a bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS), which also establishes the swing range. Currently, we are trading between the swing high and the fractal low. In yesterday's analysis, I noted that the internal range had narrowed significantly, allowing the price to confirm the swing pullback phase by printing the bearish iBOS. This is now reflected in the price action. Intraday Expectation: We expect the initiation of a bullish pullback phase, indicated by a bullish Change of Character (CHoCH), denoted with a blue dotted line. However, since the bullish CHoCH is positioned in the premium zone, confirmation of the internal low will only occur if the price retraces to the 50% equilibrium (EQ). H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: Price met expectations by targeting a weak internal low and printing a bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS). As previously mentioned, price action has been erratic due to ongoing macroeconomic data and heightened geopolitical tensions. Since the last analysis, price printed another bearish iBOS, followed by a bullish iBOS after reacting from an M15 demand zone. Recent bearish Change of Character (CHoCH) suggests the potential initiation of a bearish pullback phase, though this is not confirmation but an indication. I will closely monitor this as the CHoCH positioning is near the internal high, requiring discretionary judgement. Intraday Expectation: Price is expected to target the 50% equilibrium or the M15 supply zone before aiming for a weak internal high. It's important to remain cautious, as the H4 timeframe has confirmed swing pullback phase with a bearish iBOS, which may limit upside momentum. With rising geopolitical tensions, Gold is likely to remain highly volatile in the short term. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAUUSD / UNDER TENSTION OF THE MIDDLE EAST - 4HXAUUSD / 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS After reaching an all-time high (ATH) of $2,686, the price began to decline by 1.60%. This dip is likely due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. However, given the instability in the region, the price is expected to rise again, potentially reaching a supply zone between $2,700 and $2,720. As long as the price remains stable above the $2,637 and $2,614 levels, my target is to see it returning to $2,686. However, a break below $2,614 triggered a further decline, bringing the price down to $2,586 and potentially testing the next support at $2,559. My Target : 2,586$. Supply Zone : 2,700$ , 2,720$. Demand Zone : 2,586$ , 2,559$.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ArinaKarayi
XAU/USD 30 September 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: Intraday analysis/bias remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 29 September 2024. -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has continued to surge in price printing all time highs with price pulling back very minimally. Price has printed a further bullish iBOS. Bearish CHoCH has been printed indicating bearish pullback phase initiation. We also have established an internal range. You will note the internal range has extensively narrowed, allowing price to confirm swing pullback phase by printing bearish iBOS. However, we remain bullish. Although price has tapped in to strong internal low, price has been unable to close below Intraday expectation: Price to target weak internal high, however, due to the narrowing of the internal range and all HTF's requiring pullback, it would not be unrealistic if price prints a bearish iBOS. H4 Chart: M15 analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. Last week's intraday expectation (27 September 2024): In my previous analysis, I mentioned an alternative scenario where, due to all higher time frames (HTFs) requiring a pullback, it would not be surprising if the price printed a bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS). This is exactly what transpired, with the price printing a bearish iBOS. This marks the first bearish iBOS since 18 September 2024, confirming the swing structure. Following the bearish iBOS, the price has now printed a bullish Change of Character (CHoCH), indicating a potential shift in momentum. Currently, the price is contained within an internal range and is trading in the premium zone above the 50% equilibrium (EQ) of that range. Intraday Expectation: The price is expected to react at the M15 supply level before potentially targeting a weak internal low. With rising geopolitical tensions, Gold is likely to remain highly volatile in the near term. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAU/USD 30 September - 04 October 2024Weekly Analysis: Swing Structure: Bullish. Internal Structure: Bullish. Price has continued to print all time highs and surge with no indication of bearish pullback phase initiation. The first indication of pullback will be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted with a blue dotted line. Price has continued higher with CHoCH positioning remaining the same as last week's analysis dated 22 September 2024. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a bullish iBOS and continued it's surge in price lead by soft US macroeconomics and increasing geopolitical tensions. After bullish iBOS we expect bearish pullback, which, at the moment, is not showing any signs of printing. First indication, but not confirmation of pullback is for price to print a bearish CHoCH. Since last week's analysis, CHoCH positioning has remained unchanged. Bearish CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue doted line. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has continued to surge in price printing all time highs with price pulling back very minimally. Price has printed a further bullish iBOS. Bearish CHoCH has been printed indicating bearish pullback phase initiation. We also have established an internal range. You will note the internal range has extensively narrowed, allowing price to confirm swing pullback phase by printing bearish iBOS. However, we remain bullish. Although price has tapped in to strong internal low, price has been unable to close below Intraday expectation: Price to target weak internal high, however, due to the narrowing of the internal range and all HTF's requiring pullback, it would not be unrealistic if price prints a bearish iBOS. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAUUSD /UNDER TENTIONS THE MIDDLE EAST - 4HXAUUSD / 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS Current Trend: The price has declined by 1.15% since reaching the ATH , A further decline is anticipated, potentially reaching a 1.80% drop , Despite the decline, the text suggests that there is still upward pressure on the price, indicating a possibility of recovery or resistance against further losses , The author expects that if tensions in the Middle East continue, prices could rise above the ATH by 1.34% in October , This suggests a correlation between geopolitical events and market movements. Technical Analysis: Current Market Condition: The asset is under bullish pressure , As long as the price remains above 2,600$, the bullish momentum is expected to continue. Upward Condition: - Target 1: If the price trades above FVG between 2,650$ and 2,636$ , it's expected to rise to 2,686$. - Target 2: If the price stabilizes above 2,686$, it suggest to reach new resistance level between 2,700$ and 2,721$. Downward Condition: - If the price falls below 2,636$ , it suggests a potential decline: - Target : A decline to 2,600$.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ArinaKarayi
XAU/USD 27 September 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has continued to surge printing all time highs with price pulling back very minimally. Price has printed a further bullish iBOS. Bearish CHoCH has been printed indicating bearish pullback phase initiation. We also have established an internal range. You will note the internal range has extensively narrowed, allowing price to confirm swing pullback phase by printing bearish iBOS. However, we remain bullish. Intraday expectation: Price to target weak internal high, however, due to the narrowing of the internal range and all HTF's requiring pullback, it would not be unrealistic is price printed a bearish iBOS. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Intraday expectation was met with price printing bullish iBOS. Price is now contained within an internal range and is in discount of internal 50% EQ. Intraday expectation: Technically price should target weak internal high. Expecting reaction from discount of 50% EQ or M15 demand zone. Alternative scenario: Due to all HTF's requiring a pullback, it would not be unexpected if price prints a bearish iBOS. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAUUSD / TENTIONS MIDDLE EAST - 4HXAUUSD/ 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS Current Trend: - Prices have risen by 2.21% and reached a target. - Prices are now trading below $2,670. Short-Term Outlook: - There is an expectation of a 2.00% decline. - For the downtrend to be confirmed, gold prices need to break below $2,600. Further Decline Potential: - If prices stabilize below $2,600, a further decline of 5.20% is anticipated. Reversal Possibility: - However, if prices stabilize above $2,615, a rise of 3.25% is expected. Technical Analysis: Current Market Condition: The asset is under bullish pressure , As long as the price remains above 2,615$, the bullish momentum is expected to continue. Upward Condition: - Target 1: If the price trades above 2,650$, it's expected to rise to 2,670$. - Target 2: If the price stabilizes above 2,670$, the next target is 2,700$. Downward Condition: - If the price falls below 2,650$ , it suggests a potential decline: - Target 1: A decline to 2,637$. - Target 2: If it breaks below 2,637$, further decline is expected to 2,615$.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ArinaKarayi
XAU/USD 24 September 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Despite price printing it's first indication of bearish pullback phase initiation, price continued bullish. Recent economic data and geopolitical tensions, have influenced market sentiment such as the Fed's recent interest rate decision (reduction) which typically supports Gold prices. Therefore, price is expected to remain highly volatile. From a structural perspective, price is within an internal low and fractal high. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dashed line. Since previous analysis price has continued bullish, as a result, CHoCH positioning has been brought closer to recent price action. Intraday expectation: Due to volatility, price could continue bullish, however, price could also initiate bearish pullback by printing bearish CHoCH, therefore, I will be standing by. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. *CORRECTION* - I overlooked yesterday's analysis stating internal was bearish when it was in fact bullish. Yesterday's intraday analysis was correct as price did target weak internal high, printing a further bullish iBOS. Price is now contained within an internal range and is positioned at the extreme of the strong internal low of internal 50% EQ and M15 demand zone. Currently strong internal low is holding. Intraday expectation: Technically price should target weak internal high. Alternative scenario: Due to all HTF's requiring a pullback, it would not surprise me if price printed a bearish iBOS. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAUUSD / TRADING ABPVE ATH 2,600$ - 4HXAUUSD / 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS The asset is trading above its all-time high (ATH) price of $2,600.The price has risen by %1.82. If the price closes below the ATH level of $2,600 on a 4-hour (4h) candle, further decline is expected, estimated at 1.90%. As long as the price remains above $2,600, it suggests a bullish trend. A 4h candle closing below $2,600 would indicate potential bearish movement, predicting a decline of around 1.90%. Technical analysis : If the price remains above $2,600 and breaks above $2,620, we could see an upward move towards $2,635. A break below $2,600 may lead to a decline towards $2,575 and potentially $2,551, indicating a bearish trend. UPWARD TARGET : 2,620$ , 2,635$ . DOWNWARD TARGET : 2,575$ , 2,551$.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ArinaKarayi
XAUUSD - AFTER FOMC SPEECH - 4HXAUUSD / 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS In the month of August, prices started to increase until September by 10.04%, reaching a new historical peak of $2,600. As long as they remain below this level, it indicates a decline at a rate of 2.66%. Technically analysis : Gold reached a historical peak of $2,600 but began to decline following a speech by Jerome Powell. The decline was significant, hitting the target of +420 pips. Prices are now trading under downward pressure. The key levels to watch are $2,589 and $2,575. As long as the price remains below these levels, it indicates a downtrend If gold continues to stay below $2,575, it is expected to drop further to $2,551, and potentially down to $2,531. Conversely, if a 4-hour candle closes above $2,575, it suggests that prices could reverse upwards, targeting $2,589, and potentially returning to the all-time high of $2,600. overall , that the short-term outlook for gold is bearish, but there is potential for a bullish reversal if the price stabilizes above $2,575. Traders should monitor these levels closely to gauge the next move in the market. UPWARD TARGET : 2,589$ , 2,600$ . DOWNWARD TARGET : 2,551$ , 2,531$.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ArinaKarayi
XAU/USD 18 September 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. As mentioned on 13 September 2024, price to indicate pullback by printing bearish CHoCH. Current CHoCH was significantly positioned away from price therefore, price could print higher-highs to bring CHoCH positioning closer to current price. This is how price printed with CHoCH positioning being brought significantly closer to current price action. After a very long period price has printed it's first indication of bearish pullback phase initiation which was in accordance to my intraday analysis of yesterday 16 September 2024. Internal range has now been established. Recent economic data, particularly from the US has influenced market sentiment such as softer US employment data leading to an expectation of a more softer approach from the Fed which typically supports Gold prices. Therefore, price will be highly volatile. Intraday expectation: Price to continue bearish, react at discount of 50% EQ or Daily and H4 POI's. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price met yesterday's intraday expectation by targeting weak internal low. This is in-line with all HTF as a pullback is required. Price has printed a further bearish iBOS followed by a bullish CHoCH indicating bullish pullback phase initiation. Intraday expectation: Price has reacted at premium of 50% EQ. Technically price should target weak internal low, however, we should be mindful that, due to geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions, price is likely to be highly volatile. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAU/USD 17 September 2024 Intraday Analysis H4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. As mentioned on 13 September 2024, price to indicate pullback by printing bearish CHoCH. Current CHoCH was significantly positioned away from price therefore, price could print higher-highs to bring CHoCH positioning closer to current price. This is how price printed with CHoCH positioning being brought significantly closer to current price action. After a very long period price has printed it's first indication of bearish pullback phase initiation which was in accordance to my intraday analysis of yesterday 16 September 2024. Internal range has now been established. Recent economic data, particularly from the US has influenced market sentiment such as softer US employment data leading to an expectation of a more softer approach from the Fed which typically supports Gold prices. Therefore, price will be highly volatile. Intraday expectation: Price indicate pullback by printing bearish CHoCH. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price did not meet yesterday's intraday expectation by printing a bearish iBOS. This was expected as all HTF's require a pullback. Intraday expectation: Price has reacted at premium of 50% EQ. Technically price should target weak internal low. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAUUSD / TRADING BELOW RESISRTANCE TRENDLINEXAUUSD / 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS overall trading under downward pressure , until trading ATH prices below 2,589$ . Prices remain under bearish pressure as long as they are trading below the all-time high (ATH) of $2,589. Sustained trading beneath this critical resistance level indicates a continued downward trend, with an expected decline first targeting $2,570. If the price breaks below this level, the next support could be found at $2,551. However, should the price break above the $2,589 resistance level, confirmed by a 4-hour candle close above this threshold, a bullish reversal is likely. In this scenario, the price may rise to test $2,600 as the next resistance level. Further upside potential could push prices higher, possibly reaching $2,620 if buying momentum strengthens. UPWARD TARGET : 2,600$ , 2,620$. DOWNWARD TARGET : 2,570$ , 2,551$.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ArinaKarayi
XAUUSD / TRADING BELOW 2,572$ (ATH) - 4HXAUUSD / 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS gold under bearish pressure if stabilizing below 2,570$ but breaking this level reach a new resistance zone between 2,580$ and 2,592$. As long as the price remains and stabilizes below $2,570, it suggests a potential decline, with the first target being $2,551. If the price falls below this level, further downside movement could lead to a drop toward $2,531. However, if the price breaks above the $2,570 resistance, it may initiate an upward movement, aiming for a new resistance zone between $2,580 and $2,592. This zone will act as a potential barrier to further upward momentum. Turning Level : 2,570$
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ArinaKarayi
XAUUSD / REACHED NEW HISTORICAL PEAKS - 4HXAUUSD / 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS as mentioned in the last chart stabilizing above 2,526$ rising and reach historical peak , reached + 240 pip profit . Currently, prices are trading above $2,531. As long as they remain above this level, an upward movement is expected towards $2,560 and $2,570. This rise is likely to continue as long as prices trade above $2,526 and $2,519. However, if the price breaks below $2,519, a decline is anticipated, with the first target being $2,507, followed by $2,491. TURNING LEVEL : 2,519$
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ArinaKarayi
XAU/USD 13 September 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a further bullish iBOS without any significant pullback following previous bullish iBOS Recent economic data, particularly from the US has influenced market sentiment such as softer US employment data leading to an expectation of a more softer approach from the Fed which typically supports Gold prices. Intraday expectation: Price indicate pullback by printing bearish CHoCH. Current CHoCH is significantly far, therefore, price could print higher-highs to bring CHoCH positioning closer to current price. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Due to several factors such as geopolitical tensions and many macroeconomic factors XAU continues to surge. Price has printed a bullish BOS with price failing to target weak internal low. Price has printed a bearish CHoCH indicating bearish pullback phase initiation. At he time of writing it seems price is print higher-highs. Intraday expectation: Price to continue bearish pullback phase, target either M15 demand zones or price reacts at discount of internal 50% EQ. Alternative scenario, price prints bullish iBOS, confirming internal range low. This would give more realistic LTF confirmation that HTF is in pullback phase. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAU/USD 12 September 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: Intraday analysis/bias remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 11 September 2024. -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Following bullish iBOS price did not pull back to either H4 POI's or discount of internal 50% EQ which indicates XAU strength. Recent economic data, particularly from the US has influenced market sentiment such as softer US employment data leading to an expectation of a more softer approach from the Fed which typically supports Gold prices. Intraday expectation: Whilst price has continued bullish it is my concern that price did not pull back deep enough to grab liquidity in order to sustain a bullish push. Looking to the left price has made several failed attempts. Price should technically target weak internal high. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. Due to several factors such as geopolitical tensions and many macroeconomic factors XAU continues to surge. Nonetheless, I will continue with systematic rules of analysis. Technically price should target weak internal low, therefore, my bias will remain unchanged until M15 candle break and close above swing high. Price is currently reacting at another M15 supply zone. Intraday expectation: Price is close to extreme premium of internal 50% EQ. Price to target weak internal low. My bias will remain unchanged until and unless M15 candle close above strong swing high. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
GOLD / UNDER BEARISH PRESSURE - 4HXAUUSD / 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS Tendency , prices is under downward pressure , until trading below turning level at 2,507$ Downward Condition: With the price holding steady at the current turning level at 2,507$ , it is likely to decline towards the support level of 2,475$. If it stabilizes below this level, it could then reach the next target level of 2,459$ , maybe prices reach 2,520$ before starts a dropping . Upward Condition : for an upward , a potential is expected if the price breaks the turning level at 2,507$ , leading to a rise toward the resistance level (1) at 2,520$ . For a sustained increase, the price must breaking the resistance level (1) to reach the next resistance at 2,532$. TARGET UPWARD ZONE : RESISTANCE LEVEL (1) : 2,520$ . RESISTANCE LEVEL (2) : 2,532$. TARGET DOWNWARD ZONE : SUPPORT LEVEL (1) : 2,475$ . SUPPORT LEVEL (2) : 2,459$ . TURNING LEVEL : 2,507$ .
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ArinaKarayi
XAU/USD 12-16 August 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: Swing Structure: Bullish. Internal Structure: Bullish. Price has, as yet, failed to indicate bearish pullback following bullish bullish BOS and iBOS. The first indication of pullback will be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted with a blue dotted line. However, price could print further highs which would bring CHOCH positioning closer to current price. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a bullish iBOS. Price indicated bearish pullback phase initiation once it printed a bearish CHoCH. Price then continued bearish, reacting at discount of internal 50% EQ denoted in blue. Price has, once again, almost precisely reacted at 50% EQ of the internal structure, therefore, technically price should target weak internal high. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Following price printing bullish BOS price pulled back to discount of 50% EQ before targeting weak internal high. As previously mentioned, bullish momentum and pro swing/internal structure was unable to break and close above weak internal high, which could be an early indication that bearish pullback phase is incomplete and price will seek further liquidity before targeting weak internal high. This is what price printed according to my analysis. Intraday expectation: Price has reacted at an H4 demand level, therefore, price to target weak internal high. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAU/USD 08 June 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has continued bullish and printed a bullish iBOS aligning itself with swing structure. Price has evidently begun to pullback following bullish iBOS without mitigating daily supply zone which would question if price has the liquidity to 'fuel' it's drive down. It would be prudent to stand aside and allow price to confirm it's intention. Intraday expectation: According to current price action, price to pullback to either discount of 50% EQ or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high. However, I would personally stand aside and allow price to confirm it's intention. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. Price has been fairly erratic printing small range bullish iBOS' followed by small range IBOS'. Whilst range sizes are smaller than previous iBOS' and could be open to interpretation with reference to recent price action, I will keep the process mechanical. Price is currently trading between an internal high and fractal low. Bullish CHoCH lined is denoted with the blue dotted line, which is positioned close to M15 supply zone. Intraday expectation: Price to continue bearish, which would reposition CHoCH closer to current price action. Bearish iBOS has been printed, therefore, a pullback will be required to either premium of 50% EQ or M15 supply zone before targeting weak internal low. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK