XAUUSD - AFTER FOMC SPEECH - 4HXAUUSD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
In the month of August, prices started to increase until September by 10.04%, reaching a new historical peak of $2,600. As long as they remain below this level, it indicates a decline at a rate of 2.66%.
Technically analysis :
Gold reached a historical peak of $2,600 but began to decline following a speech by Jerome Powell. The decline was significant, hitting the target of +420 pips.
Prices are now trading under downward pressure. The key levels to watch are $2,589 and $2,575. As long as the price remains below these levels, it indicates a downtrend
If gold continues to stay below $2,575, it is expected to drop further to $2,551, and potentially down to $2,531.
Conversely, if a 4-hour candle closes above $2,575, it suggests that prices could reverse upwards, targeting $2,589, and potentially returning to the all-time high of $2,600.
overall , that the short-term outlook for gold is bearish, but there is potential for a bullish reversal if the price stabilizes above $2,575. Traders should monitor these levels closely to gauge the next move in the market.
UPWARD TARGET : 2,589$ , 2,600$ .
DOWNWARD TARGET : 2,551$ , 2,531$.
Xauusdideas
XAU/USD 18 September 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
As mentioned on 13 September 2024, price to indicate pullback by printing bearish CHoCH. Current CHoCH was significantly positioned away from price therefore, price could print higher-highs to bring CHoCH positioning closer to current price.
This is how price printed with CHoCH positioning being brought significantly closer to current price action.
After a very long period price has printed it's first indication of bearish pullback phase initiation which was in accordance to my intraday analysis of yesterday 16 September 2024.
Internal range has now been established.
Recent economic data, particularly from the US has influenced market sentiment such as softer US employment data leading to an expectation of a more softer approach from the Fed which typically supports Gold prices. Therefore, price will be highly volatile.
Intraday expectation: Price to continue bearish, react at discount of 50% EQ or Daily and H4 POI's.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price met yesterday's intraday expectation by targeting weak internal low.
This is in-line with all HTF as a pullback is required.
Price has printed a further bearish iBOS followed by a bullish CHoCH indicating bullish pullback phase initiation.
Intraday expectation: Price has reacted at premium of 50% EQ. Technically price should target weak internal low, however, we should be mindful that, due to geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions, price is likely to be highly volatile.
M15 Chart:
XAU/USD 17 September 2024 Intraday Analysis H4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
As mentioned on 13 September 2024, price to indicate pullback by printing bearish CHoCH. Current CHoCH was significantly positioned away from price therefore, price could print higher-highs to bring CHoCH positioning closer to current price.
This is how price printed with CHoCH positioning being brought significantly closer to current price action.
After a very long period price has printed it's first indication of bearish pullback phase initiation which was in accordance to my intraday analysis of yesterday 16 September 2024.
Internal range has now been established.
Recent economic data, particularly from the US has influenced market sentiment such as softer US employment data leading to an expectation of a more softer approach from the Fed which typically supports Gold prices. Therefore, price will be highly volatile.
Intraday expectation: Price indicate pullback by printing bearish CHoCH.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price did not meet yesterday's intraday expectation by printing a bearish iBOS.
This was expected as all HTF's require a pullback.
Intraday expectation: Price has reacted at premium of 50% EQ. Technically price should target weak internal low.
M15 Chart:
XAUUSD / TRADING BELOW RESISRTANCE TRENDLINEXAUUSD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
overall trading under downward pressure , until trading ATH prices below 2,589$ .
Prices remain under bearish pressure as long as they are trading below the all-time high (ATH) of $2,589. Sustained trading beneath this critical resistance level indicates a continued downward trend, with an expected decline first targeting $2,570. If the price breaks below this level, the next support could be found at $2,551.
However, should the price break above the $2,589 resistance level, confirmed by a 4-hour candle close above this threshold, a bullish reversal is likely. In this scenario, the price may rise to test $2,600 as the next resistance level. Further upside potential could push prices higher, possibly reaching $2,620 if buying momentum strengthens.
UPWARD TARGET : 2,600$ , 2,620$.
DOWNWARD TARGET : 2,570$ , 2,551$.
XAUUSD / TRADING BELOW 2,572$ (ATH) - 4HXAUUSD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
gold under bearish pressure if stabilizing below 2,570$ but breaking this level reach a new resistance zone between 2,580$ and 2,592$.
As long as the price remains and stabilizes below $2,570, it suggests a potential decline, with the first target being $2,551. If the price falls below this level, further downside movement could lead to a drop toward $2,531.
However, if the price breaks above the $2,570 resistance, it may initiate an upward movement, aiming for a new resistance zone between $2,580 and $2,592. This zone will act as a potential barrier to further upward momentum.
Turning Level : 2,570$
XAUUSD / REACHED NEW HISTORICAL PEAKS - 4HXAUUSD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
as mentioned in the last chart stabilizing above 2,526$ rising and reach historical peak , reached + 240 pip profit .
Currently, prices are trading above $2,531. As long as they remain above this level, an upward movement is expected towards $2,560 and $2,570. This rise is likely to continue as long as prices trade above $2,526 and $2,519.
However, if the price breaks below $2,519, a decline is anticipated, with the first target being $2,507, followed by $2,491.
TURNING LEVEL : 2,519$
XAU/USD 13 September 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has printed a further bullish iBOS without any significant pullback following previous bullish iBOS
Recent economic data, particularly from the US has influenced market sentiment such as softer US employment data leading to an expectation of a more softer approach from the Fed which typically supports Gold prices.
Intraday expectation: Price indicate pullback by printing bearish CHoCH. Current CHoCH is significantly far, therefore, price could print higher-highs to bring CHoCH positioning closer to current price.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Due to several factors such as geopolitical tensions and many macroeconomic factors XAU continues to surge.
Price has printed a bullish BOS with price failing to target weak internal low.
Price has printed a bearish CHoCH indicating bearish pullback phase initiation.
At he time of writing it seems price is print higher-highs.
Intraday expectation: Price to continue bearish pullback phase, target either M15 demand zones or price reacts at discount of internal 50% EQ.
Alternative scenario, price prints bullish iBOS, confirming internal range low. This would give more realistic LTF confirmation that HTF is in pullback phase.
M15 Chart:
XAU/USD 12 September 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
Intraday analysis/bias remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 11 September 2024.
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Following bullish iBOS price did not pull back to either H4 POI's or discount of internal 50% EQ which indicates XAU strength.
Recent economic data, particularly from the US has influenced market sentiment such as softer US employment data leading to an expectation of a more softer approach from the Fed which typically supports Gold prices.
Intraday expectation: Whilst price has continued bullish it is my concern that price did not pull back deep enough to grab liquidity in order to sustain a bullish push. Looking to the left price has made several failed attempts. Price should technically target weak internal high.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Due to several factors such as geopolitical tensions and many macroeconomic factors XAU continues to surge.
Nonetheless, I will continue with systematic rules of analysis.
Technically price should target weak internal low, therefore, my bias will remain unchanged until M15 candle break and close above swing high.
Price is currently reacting at another M15 supply zone.
Intraday expectation: Price is close to extreme premium of internal 50% EQ. Price to target weak internal low. My bias will remain unchanged until and unless M15 candle close above strong swing high.
M15 Chart:
GOLD / UNDER BEARISH PRESSURE - 4HXAUUSD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
Tendency , prices is under downward pressure , until trading below turning level at 2,507$
Downward Condition: With the price holding steady at the current turning level at 2,507$ , it is likely to decline towards the support level of 2,475$. If it stabilizes below this level, it could then reach the next target level of 2,459$ , maybe prices reach 2,520$ before starts a dropping .
Upward Condition : for an upward , a potential is expected if the price breaks the turning level at 2,507$ , leading to a rise toward the resistance level (1) at 2,520$ . For a sustained increase, the price must breaking the resistance level (1) to reach the next resistance at 2,532$.
TARGET UPWARD ZONE :
RESISTANCE LEVEL (1) : 2,520$ .
RESISTANCE LEVEL (2) : 2,532$.
TARGET DOWNWARD ZONE :
SUPPORT LEVEL (1) : 2,475$ .
SUPPORT LEVEL (2) : 2,459$ .
TURNING LEVEL : 2,507$ .
XAU/USD 12-16 August 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis:
Swing Structure: Bullish.
Internal Structure: Bullish.
Price has, as yet, failed to indicate bearish pullback following bullish bullish BOS and iBOS.
The first indication of pullback will be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted with a blue dotted line.
However, price could print further highs which would bring CHOCH positioning closer to current price.
Weekly Chart:
Daily Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS.
Price indicated bearish pullback phase initiation once it printed a bearish CHoCH.
Price then continued bearish, reacting at discount of internal 50% EQ denoted in blue.
Price has, once again, almost precisely reacted at 50% EQ of the internal structure, therefore, technically price should target weak internal high.
Daily Chart:
H4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Following price printing bullish BOS price pulled back to discount of 50% EQ before targeting weak internal high.
As previously mentioned, bullish momentum and pro swing/internal structure was unable to break and close above weak internal high, which could be an early indication that bearish pullback phase is incomplete and price will seek further liquidity before targeting weak internal high. This is what price printed according to my analysis.
Intraday expectation: Price has reacted at an H4 demand level, therefore, price to target weak internal high.
H4 Chart:
XAU/USD 08 June 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has continued bullish and printed a bullish iBOS aligning itself with swing structure.
Price has evidently begun to pullback following bullish iBOS without mitigating daily supply zone which would question if price has the liquidity to 'fuel' it's drive down.
It would be prudent to stand aside and allow price to confirm it's intention.
Intraday expectation: According to current price action, price to pullback to either discount of 50% EQ or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high. However, I would personally stand aside and allow price to confirm it's intention.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Price has been fairly erratic printing small range bullish iBOS' followed by small range IBOS'.
Whilst range sizes are smaller than previous iBOS' and could be open to interpretation with reference to recent price action, I will keep the process mechanical.
Price is currently trading between an internal high and fractal low.
Bullish CHoCH lined is denoted with the blue dotted line, which is positioned close to M15 supply zone.
Intraday expectation: Price to continue bearish, which would reposition CHoCH closer to current price action. Bearish iBOS has been printed, therefore, a pullback will be required to either premium of 50% EQ or M15 supply zone before targeting weak internal low.
M15 Chart:
Gold trading idea 🎯🎯Gold price trend to continue buy during session
It is expected that price will continue in the buy trend
And can approach the price range of 2154
Gold buy from 2154_2150
(1)Target zone. 2170
( 2) Target zone 2190
Note:
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Gold trend analysis
Hello everyone, after several days of sharp rise, gold has reached around 2165 today. Today I helped everyone achieve a profit of 140pips, and I almost always brought you stable and safe trading profits. I think that after the gold correction, you can still choose to buy gold, and the current trend is still upward. Gold is expected to hit a new all-time high. Tomorrow there will be US non-farm payroll data. will be the key to determining the next trend of gold. I will update my analysis in due course. If you like my analysis please give me a like and join me
GOLD - The downtrend channel continues, so buy or sell now?World gold prices this morning continued to decline with spot gold down 8.8 USD to 1,968.7 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at 1,973.5 USD/ounce, down 15.1 USD compared to yesterday morning's gold.
The strong recovery of the USD in the evening trading session of November 7 took away the appeal of gold for buyers holding other currencies.
Investors are currently waiting for a series of speeches from US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials this week, the most important of which is Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech on Wednesday and Thursday.
However, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the central bank may have more work ahead to control inflation.
According to analysts at the World Gold Council, although October was a historic month for the gold market as the precious metal saw record high closing prices for the month, more substances are needed. catalyst to create sustainable thrust in the market.
Experts note that geopolitical instability due to the conflict between Israel and Hamas has increased the demand for safe-haven speculation, but long-term investors are still reluctant to jump into the market due to the action. Weak prices in gold-backed exchange-traded products (ETFs). A sustainable rise for gold above $2,000 an ounce requires signs that political risks continue and bond yields and the dollar peak.
XAUUSD - Precious metals leveled off after soaringAfter many consecutive days of rising, the price of gold today, October 13, of the world has decreased as data broadcast in the US cooled, the USD and US interest bonds heated up.
Overnight, the US announced that the annual consumer price index (CPI) increased by 3.7%, higher than the forecast of 3.6%. However, the annual core CPI excluding real product and energy prices decreased from 4.3% to 4.1%, meeting market expectations.
At the same time, the US also announced the number of initial unemployment support applications of 209,000 applications, better than the forecast of 210,000 applications.
Analysts say that utilization in the US is decreasing and the improving job market will push the US Federal Reserve (FED) to raise interest rates in November 2023 and maintain high interest rates for a longer period of time. .
The value of the USD has skyrocketed after the above information. The 10-year US bond core increased by 4.65%, the 2-year bond increased by 5.07%.
Under pressure from the USD and US bonds, gold prices may decrease after being able to control 1,885 USD/ounce. So they took the opportunity to sell it and make a profit. As a result, today's world gold price decreased by 15 USD to 1,870 USD/ounce at 6:00 a.m. on October 13.
XAUUSD, Long from the liquidity zone (1915)Gold is currently reacting on a key level (1925) which has the Daily EMA-50, 4Hr EMA 200/50/20 on clusted there.
The 4hr candle closing below these EMAs could spark a short to the next liquidity zone (1915).
The 4Hr candle closing above the EMA-200/50/20 could spark buys to 1952 potentially but before the market will buy, i will expect some liquidity drops to 1915 before any potential long at the back of an expected bearish wave of the DXY.
GOLD:Trading strategy
Today, as I analyzed, it is on a downward trend, and it has now broken the support point of 1928.
Pay attention to the 1920 support point. The previous 1928-1932 support point has now become resistance, so it is now a short trend, but it will not fall directly, waiting for the choice of gold.
But I don't think gold will fall directly without new stimulus. At present, there is obvious support at the bottom, so you can buy it.
Gold trading advice today:
Gold:buy1918-1922 TP:1928-1932
If you want to make money, join me, keep up with my strategies, and I will share my ideas every day.
XAUUSD retracing as expected, long favorable from 2016 zoneAs expected in the previous post the price has been pushed back from 2055 level and currently trading below and closer to the previous support around 2030. I am still waiting for the next long entry from 2016. If it reaches there, it would be a good long opportunity. However, I expect some bounce again from 2030 level. Lets see how the price develops in coming hours.
Preemptive layout,short at 1835-1840
The market continues to digest the testimony of the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. In his two-day speech, he appeared slightly less hawkish on the second day, which helped prevent further decline in gold prices. After Powell hinted at the possibility of a 50 basis points rate hike by FOMC in March, gold prices plummeted on Tuesday, and then stabilized in Thursday's trading.
The XAUUSD trend during the data week was fiercely contested between longs and shorts. After Powell's speech, the market experienced a sharp decline followed by a rapid rebound above 1830, but the 1835 resistance line was noticeably strong on the four-hour chart. The focus for the day is on the suppression situation in this area. The upcoming non-farm data is also bearish for XAUUSD, so a preemptive layout is recommended, and the strategy is to maintain a short position on rallies.
Personal trading strategy: Enter a short position at 1835-1840 with a target of 1820-1810. I will continue to update my views on XAUUSD, so please stay tuned.
Can XAUUSD break through 1860?
Today's market saw a strong downtrend due to Powell's speech causing a strengthening of the US dollar and market bearish sentiment. The price has deviated from its technical trend, but I personally expect the market to eventually return to a technical trend. Our long positions entered at 1830 are still being held, and for friends with larger capital, additional long positions can be added near 1820. I am optimistic that a good rebound trend will emerge after the negative news is digested by the market.
As emphasized at the beginning of this week, there will be a lot of data and news to focus on. I will continue to update the strategy and please stay tuned.
XAUUSD: Long position at 1830-1835
A person, a book, a cup of tea, and a dream. Sometimes, loneliness is so moving, and only at this moment can the world be so calm. The cool wind blows the pages of the book, and the smoke and rain permeate the dusty words and stories in the book with a moist breath. Leaning alone at the window, watching the blue-stone alley at the corner, an oil-paper umbrella that has been missed for a long time, covering the time that passes under the eaves.
There is not much to say, the overall trend of XAUUSD is consistent with my expectations. At the weekend, I suggested a short-term position followed by a long position. This week, there has been a downward adjustment mainly due to the overall rise of $50 in XAUUSD last week, and there is a technical demand for a correction. After closing the profit of the short position, we can re-enter the long position to gain profits.
Personal suggestion: Enter the long position at 1830-1835, and focus on the target of 1850-1860. Pay attention to the support at 1830 below. I will also update the latest operational ideas in a timely manner, please keep paying attention and leave me a message if you have any questions.