gold on bullish reverse#XAUUSD buy below 3375-3377, but firstly we wait for 3375 to touch before buying.
Target 3406, stop loss at 3365
Below the 3365 holds bearish flag which will continue falling till 3349.
Xauusdlong
XAUUSD:A long trading strategy
Yesterday was affected by the easing signal gold high continued to correction, fell back to 3400 again, the trend exceeded personal expectations. Gold received another boost after the president's news, and rebounded slightly in the Asian session. In this eventful autumn, the market is subject to frequent news factors, the trend is slightly turbulent, to be ready to sweep back and forward.
Today's overall volatility is expected to have a contraction, individual expectations of the final close of the small negative line is more likely
Trading Strategy:
BUY@3380-85
TP:3404-3410
↓↓↓ More detailed strategies and trading will be notified here ↗↗↗
↓↓↓ Keep updated, come to "get" ↗↗↗
GOLD H1 Intraday Chart Update for 18 June 25Hello Traders, Welcome to the FOMC Day
as you can see that market is in tight range for now which is 3370-3400, we are still waiting for long above 3400 Psychological Level once market will clearly breaks 3400 level we consider long opportunities
if market breaks 3350 Psychological digit successfully then it will move towards 3325 first then focus will 3300 Major Support Level
All eyes on FOMC for the day
Disclaimer: Forex is Risky
Middle East Tensions Intertwined with Fed Rate Cut SpeculationThe Middle East situation remains tense ⚠️, and with rumors of a Fed rate cut emerging 👂, gold is likely to see significant volatility in the near term 📈📉. Due to the war, we still favor going long at lower levels 💹. During the current U.S. trading session, another pullback may occur—we need to wait for the correction before continuing to go long ⏳
⚡️⚡️⚡️ XAUUSD ⚡️⚡️⚡️
🚀 Buy@ 3365 - 3375
🚀 TP 3400 - 3410
Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟 👇
Accumulate around 3400, Keep interest rate today⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Gold prices slipped below the $3,400 threshold on Tuesday, weighed down by renewed strength in the US Dollar (USD), despite a worsening global risk sentiment. The resilience of the greenback limited gains in the safe-haven asset, though mounting tensions between Israel and Iran continue to offer underlying support. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading at $3,380, down 0.05%.
Although risk appetite remains subdued, gold has struggled to rally, as the US Dollar regains ground. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the currency against a basket of six major peers, climbed 0.46% to 98.58.
Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions intensified after US President Donald Trump abruptly departed the G7 summit in Canada on Monday in response to unfolding events in the Middle East. In a stark warning posted to his social platform, he urged, “Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran,” signaling a sharp escalation in the conflict that began last Friday.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
Gold price is moving in accumulation zone below 3400 - 3365. Break and return above 3400, continue to accumulate.
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone: 3437- 3439 SL 3444
TP1: $3425
TP2: $3410
TP3: $3395
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $3338-$3340 SL $3333
TP1: $3346
TP2: $3355
TP3: $3370
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable BUY order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
XAUUSD!UP!As I expected, the market remains volatile. It needs an opportunity to continue to rise.
I will update this kind of information in the swing trading center. If you don't want to miss such precise trading opportunities, remember to stay tuned.
Key Event Today – FOMC Interest Rate DecisionAs risk-off sentiment cools, gold bulls failed to take control yesterday, resulting in a stalemate with the bears.
From the 4H chart perspective, bearish momentum currently appears stronger,
though bulls are not giving up easily.
Currently, price is rebounding off the 4H MA60 support,
with immediate resistance from the MA20 around 3405.
As time progresses, this resistance is likely to shift lower,
so for now, we’ll treat $3400 as the primary reference point.
For bulls to regain dominance,
they must hold steady above 3405,
and more importantly, protect the support at 3386–3378 during any pullback.
🔔 Key Event Today – FOMC Interest Rate Decision
Today’s trading will also be influenced by the Federal Reserve’s rate decision,
which, based on current expectations, is likely to weigh heavily on bullish sentiment.
📌 Strategy for Today:
Main Bias: Sell the rebound
Secondary Approach: Buy on pullbacks if strong support levels hold
Key support levels to monitor:
⚠️ 3382 zone (minor support)
🔻 Most critical: 4H MA60 around 3366
Stay cautious during the FOMC announcement window, and remember — in volatile markets, reacting with discipline is more important than predicting perfectly.
6/17 Gold Analysis and Trading SignalsGood morning!
Yesterday, gold opened with a gap-up and surged to around 3451, but failed to sustain above key resistance. After another failed attempt to break higher, prices gradually turned lower and finally broke below 3400, finding short-term support near 3382.
The primary driver of this decline was a waning of geopolitical risk sentiment, which had previously fueled the rally. Additionally, the market is now pricing in expectations that the Fed will keep rates unchanged, a factor that was likely preemptively reflected in price.
🔍 Fundamental Focus:
Today’s U.S. session will feature a key news release, which may prove decisive for gold’s next directional move. With yesterday’s advance pullback, market dynamics are likely to be more volatile today. We recommend caution, especially ahead of the announcement.
📉 Technical View:
Gold is currently in a post-decline consolidation phase.
The main resistance lies between 3430–3450, while 3415 on the 30-minute chart also presents a short-term cap.
For those entering long positions, target zones should remain conservative, ideally around 3412–3418, and then be adjusted depending on volume momentum and breakout structure.
📊 Weekly Structure Outlook:
The weekly chart shows that gold is at a key trend inflection point.
If no additional bullish catalysts emerge, the market is likely to develop into a bearish consolidation, with the next major downside target around 3200.
📌 Trading Plan (For VIP):
✅ Sell Zone: 3436–3466
✅ Buy Zone: 3347–3323
✅ Flexible Trade Zones: 3428 / 3415 / 3403 / 3392 / 3378 / 3362 / 3354
6/18 Gold Analysis and Trading SignalsGood morning, everyone!
Gold traded within a narrow range yesterday, and the buy signal shared during the session yielded profits. From a technical perspective, the market remains in a rebound phase, with key resistance around 3403. If the price breaks and holds above this level, there’s a good chance we’ll see a move toward the 3418–3428 zone today.
During the Asian and European sessions, the trading bias should remain on the buy side, while in the U.S. session, it may be more favorable to shift toward short setups, mainly due to expectations surrounding the upcoming Fed interest rate decision—an outlook we discussed yesterday.
Key intraday ranges to watch:
Asian–European session: 3362–3413
If price reaches the 3425–3435 zone before the U.S. session, short opportunities may emerge
As always, manage your positions carefully and adapt to key levels as price unfolds.
Range-bound Trading amid Geopolitical and Policy GamesGold Market Brief: Range Bound Trading Amid Geopolitical and Policy Games
I. Core Drivers
- Geopolitical Hedge Cooling: Iran's signal to restart nuclear talks has weakened risk aversion, triggering intraday gold pullbacks, though Middle East tensions remain a wild card.
- Fed Policy Expectations: The Fed kept rates unchanged this week, with Powell's "data-dependent" stance fueling 60% odds of a September rate cut. Dovish signals may push gold above $3,400, while hawkish cues could drag it to $3,350.
II. Key Technical Levels
Supports:
- $3,380: 4-hour MA30 + June 17 low ($3,375.5), bolstered by the ascending channel lower 轨 (lower trendline).
- $3,350: Daily MA10 + June 12 congestion zone, a psychological pivot for policy betting.
Resistances:
- $3,400: Intraday high + 4-hour MA10 + descending trendline forming "triple resistance".
- $3,450: June 13 high converging with weekly Fibonacci 61.8% retracement ($3,448).
III. Short-term Outlook & Focus Points
- Range-bound Trend: Gold likely to oscillate between $3,350-$3,450, with breakthroughs hinging on escalated geopolitics or stronger rate cut bets.
- Catalyst Events: Monitor June 19 Fed meeting, June 21 CPI data, and Middle East developments as potential range breakers.
XAU/USD Trading Strategy for Today
buy@3370-3380
tp:3395-3405
sell@3395-3405
tp:3385-3375
I am committed to sharing trading signals every day. Among them, real-time signals will be flexibly pushed according to market dynamics. All the signals sent out last week accurately matched the market trends, helping numerous traders achieve substantial profits. Regardless of your previous investment performance, I believe that with the support of my professional strategies and timely signals, I will surely be able to assist you in breaking through investment bottlenecks and achieving new breakthroughs in the trading field.
XAU/USD:Iran's Peace Moves Spark Market TurbulenceI. Iran Signals De-escalation
US media reports suggest Iran, under Israeli airstrike pressure, has used Arab intermediaries to send peace signals to the US and Israel—demanding the US stay out of airstrikes as a precondition for restarting nuclear talks, and stressing to Israel that violence control serves mutual interests.
II. Israel Stays Resolute
Israeli warplanes freely overfly Iran's capital, with Iran's counterattacks proving ineffective. Israel remains focused on dismantling Iran's nuclear facilities and weakening its theocratic regime, showing no short-term incentive to cease fire.
III. Gold's Reaction and Strategy
Iran's peace overtures triggered gold's plunge to $3,382. Yet with no tangible Middle East de-escalation, dip-buying is advised, with attention on the $3,400 support level.
XAUUSD
buy@3380-3390
tp:3400-3410
I am committed to sharing trading signals every day. Among them, real-time signals will be flexibly pushed according to market dynamics. All the signals sent out last week accurately matched the market trends, helping numerous traders achieve substantial profits. Regardless of your previous investment performance, I believe that with the support of my professional strategies and timely signals, I will surely be able to assist you in breaking through investment bottlenecks and achieving new breakthroughs in the trading field.
XAUUSD Long Setup – Retest of Broken Structure & Safe-Haven FlowGold has pulled back to retest a strong former resistance (now support) zone around $3,385–$3,390. This level aligns with a previous breakout and marks the neckline of an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern. The pair is now showing bullish structure with back-to-back continuation patterns (bull flags), suggesting further upside potential.
Given escalating geopolitical risk (Iran-Israel strikes, Trump-led evacuation urgency), slowing Fed cut expectations, and softening inflation-adjusted yields, gold remains in demand.
🔍 Technical Analysis:
Structure: Higher highs and higher lows maintained.
Support Zone: $3,385–$3,390 (retest zone) – bulls stepping back in.
Targets:
TP1: $3,451
TP2: $3,470
TP3: $3,495 (new local high)
Stop Loss: Below $3,369 (recent low)
Pattern Context: Bull flags continue to form and break bullish – reinforcing trend.
🧠 Fundamental Context (June 17):
Bullish Drivers:
Middle East escalation → safe haven bid surging (Iran missile launches, Israeli retaliation, US political chaos).
Fed on pause → real yields are subdued, favoring non-yielding assets like gold.
Convexity & bond volatility rising → investors hedging with hard assets (confirmed via CME sentiment reports).
Risks:
Sudden peace deal or ceasefire.
Unexpected US CPI spike → reawakens rate hike fears.
📅 Key Events to Watch:
Fed speeches (confirmation of dovish tone)
Any ceasefire or major diplomatic development
Oil movement (energy risk spillovers)
Gold (XAUUSD) – Demand Zone Holding, Silver Leading BreakoutGold has respected its demand zone near $3,367–$3,382 and is attempting to bounce higher. Importantly, Silver (XAGUSD in pink overlay) is leading the upside move, having broken out cleanly above $37.00 and still climbing. This confirms the bullish momentum across precious metals.
Geopolitical tensions, dovish Fed commentary, and risk-off market conditions continue to favor a move toward $3,451, $3,471, and possibly $3,495.
🔍 Technical Breakdown (4H)
Support Zone: $3,367–$3,382 (retest of broken resistance)
Bullish Structure: Rising lows, trendline holds, and higher timeframe support remains intact
Projected Targets:
🎯 TP1: $3,451 (recent high)
🎯 TP2: $3,471 (key extension)
🎯 TP3: $3,495 (top of range)
Stop Loss: Below $3,351 (invalidates demand structure)
🪙 Silver (XAGUSD) Overlay Insight:
Currently at $37.11+, showing leadership in the breakout.
Suggests gold will likely follow through — watch for Gold catching up.
🧠 Macro & Fundamental Context (June 17)
Bullish Drivers:
🔥 Ongoing Middle East war escalation (Iran-Israel, US troop buildup)
🏦 Dovish Fed tone, soft retail sales, rate cuts expected from Sept
🧾 Silver strength confirming demand across metals
Risks:
☮️ Unexpected ceasefire headlines could cause knee-jerk pullbacks
📈 Hot inflation data or hawkish Fed rhetoric could pressure upside
📅 Key Events to Watch:
FOMC members' speeches this week
US Core PCE inflation print
War headline velocity — particularly involving shipping or direct US-Iran confrontation
🧭 Strategy Suggestion:
Tactical Buy on Rejection Wick from current demand zone
Watch Silver momentum — if it breaks $37.50+, gold likely catches up fast
Consider scaling out around $3,451–$3,471 with final target near $3,495
Current Gold Trend Analysis and Trading RecommendationsGold showed a pullback after hitting a high yesterday, with a daily decline of nearly 70 USD. The daily candlestick pattern completely engulfed the previous day's gains and closed bearish. Combined with the current signals of geopolitical tensions, today's market is expected to be dominated by broad-range consolidation. From the 4-hour cycle perspective, the price broke below the middle Bollinger Band with consecutive bearish candles last night and continued to decline after being suppressed in the early morning, with technicals pointing to a consolidative and bearish pattern.
The key pivot level today is at 3,405: if the market effectively stabilizes above this level, the upper resistance will test 3,420 and 3,430 in sequence; conversely, if the suppression at 3,405 holds, the price is likely to repeatedly test the support at 3,380 and further dip to the 3,370-3,360 zone. It is recommended to wait for the decline momentum to clarify before initiating long positions, maintaining an overall range-trading strategy.
XAUUSD
buy@3375-3380
tp:3390-3400-3420
Investment itself is not the source of risk; it is only when investment behavior escapes rational control that risks lie in wait. In the trading process, always bear in mind that restraining impulsiveness is the primary criterion for success. I share trading signals daily, and all signals have been accurate without error for a full month. Regardless of your past profits or losses, with my assistance, you have the hope to achieve a breakthrough in your investment.
Falling below 3380,testing 3365,the low position remains bullish📰 Impact of news:
1. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East
2. Iran nuclear talks
3. Retail sales data
📈 Market analysis:
After rebounding to the 3400 line, gold encountered resistance and fell back to test the support level of 3380. Although it was very close to the point of 3405 we gave, I did not enter the trade because gold has been in the middle section in the short term and has not rebounded to the ideal point.
There are too many long orders at high levels in gold. The international situation is so tense that gold is still slowly declining, but the geopolitical situation is still continuing. In addition, the retail sales data is bullish. Then, as the trading strategy given at noon, it is expected to test the short-term support of 3365-3355 below. I will consider going long in this range
🏅 Trading strategies:
BUY 3365-3355
TP 3380-3390-3400
If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
TVC:GOLD FXOPEN:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold price short term correction 3373Plan XAU day: 17 June 2025
Related Information: !!!
Gold price (XAU/USD) extends its intraday directionless price move and remains below the $3,400 mark through the first half of the European session on Tuesday. Traders now seem reluctant and opt to wait for more cues about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate cut path before placing fresh directional bets. Hence, the focus will remain glued to the outcome of a two-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday, which should provide a fresh impetus to the US Dollar (USD) and the non-yielding yellow metal.
Heading into the key central bank event risk, the growing acceptance that the Fed would lower borrowing costs further in 2025 keeps the USD close to a three-year low touched on Friday and acts as a tailwind for the Gold price. Apart from this, persistent trade-related uncertainties and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East assist the safe-haven precious metal to stall the previous day's retracement slide from a nearly two-month top. This, in turn, warrants some caution for the XAU/USD bears.
personal opinion:!!!
Selling pressure in the European session on Tuesday, pay attention to support zones: 3373, 3352
Important price zone to consider : !!!
Buy point: 3373 , 3352
Sustainable trading to beat the market
Continue the uptrend, gold price returns to 3444⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Gold prices (XAU/USD) slipped for the second consecutive session on Tuesday, retreating from an early uptick during the Asian session that briefly pushed prices above the $3,400 mark. A slight rebound in the US Dollar (USD) continues to weigh on the precious metal, acting as a key drag. However, the downside appears limited amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and growing market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will initiate further rate cuts in 2025.
Meanwhile, the ongoing aerial conflict between Israel and Iran has entered its fifth day, heightening fears of a wider regional escalation. This persistent geopolitical uncertainty is keeping demand for safe-haven assets like gold supported. Investors are also exercising caution ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) two-day policy meeting, the outcome of which may shape the next directional move for non-yielding bullion.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
Gold price takes liquidity from lower supports: completed 3385, 3373. short term downtrend break. Gold price will soon return above 3400.
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone: 3443- 3445 SL 3450
TP1: $3435
TP2: $3422
TP3: $3407
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $3352-$3350 SL $3345
TP1: $3368
TP2: $3376
TP3: $3390
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable BUY order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
XAUUSD: Accumulation in process,Waiting for Bullish DistributionHello,
Today, we will analyse the key points of each significant move.
Following the price’s all-time high at $3500, it experienced a sharp decline and failed to maintain that level. A substantial 2400 pips would have resulted in significant losses for many accounts. Initially, it was perceived as a minor correction, with the expectation of further price appreciation. However, this assumption proved incorrect. After reaching an even higher peak, the price invariably undergoes a more substantial correction.
At 3260, substantial bullish volume surged into the market, necessitated by the presence of a fair value gap. Subsequently, the price experienced a decline, reflecting the prevailing bearish trend, which favoured the bears. However, at 3200, a pivotal level representing a discounted price point, bull volume surged. This powerful bullish impulse propelled the price to 3432, ultimately confirming the bullish trend. AB=CD there recurring pattern emerged weekly. When the price reached the 3432 level as a fair value gap, the CD pattern commenced.
AB=CDTheHeyIndeed, we have identified a recurring pattern. It appears to be an equal move in any direction, and it has manifested precisely as anticipated. We were aware that the price would reject at 3120, and it did so accordingly. Currently, the market is in our favour. Upon market opening, it exhibited a positive gap, propelling the price to 3450. However, it subsequently declined, reaching 3384.
Presently, we find ourselves in the accumulation phase, poised for distribution. This distribution is anticipated to be substantial, potentially leading to another record high, potentially reaching 3650.
Moving forward, the price could continue towards our target from its current position. Alternatively, there exists a possibility that it may drain the sell-side liquidity and reverse from 3360-3370.
Our take-profit levels are set at 3450, 3490, 3520, and finally, 3600. When entering the market, it is advisable to employ a short time frame. It is important to note that this analysis is merely our opinion, and market conditions may deviate from expectations.
We extend our best wishes for success and safe trading. If you wish to demonstrate your support, you may consider liking, commenting, or sharing this analysis with others.
Sincerely,
Team Setupsfx_
gold on buy#XAUUSD price holds on 3398 for buy continuation.
Above 3398 will take bullish which will breakout 3406, entry 3398, SL 3384, TP 3406-3425.
If price breakout 3406 and H1 closes above there then bullish will continue till 3425, but reverse and closure below 3402 down will drop the price more.
Gold on the Rise! – Bullish Setup in Focus The chart shows a repeating consolidation‑then‑breakout pattern, with Gold forming ascending swing structures, consolidating in rectangles (green), then riding higher along a rising trendline (purple). Price has just bounced off that trendline again, signaling a possible new leg up—potentially targeting the upper range near $3,448–3,450. A clear breakout above that level could open the door toward $3,500+.
📍 Trading Plan
🎯 Entry
Long on breakout above recent consolidation highs (~$3,440–3,448).
Alternatively, buy the dip near the purple trendline (~$3,385–3,390), with confirmation (hammer candle, bounce).
🛑 Stop‑Loss
For breakout: just below the top of the rectangle consolidation (~$3,389).
For trendline entry: slightly below recent swing low (~$3,358–3,360).
🎯 Profit Targets
Primary: upper rectangle level (~$3,448–3,450).
Extension: historic all‑time high region (~$3,500) → next major zone.
🎥 Path
Potential minor pullback toward trendline.
Bounce establishes support.
Surge toward top of range.
Breakout with trend continuation to new highs.
📊 Trade Risk & Reward
Target ~60–100 pts above entry, stop ~50 pts below → ideal Risk:Reward ≥ 1:1.2.
📌 Key Levels to Monitor
Level Role
$3,360 Swift dip support (green base line)
$3,390–3,400 Trendline confluence zone
$3,440–3,450 Breakout area & top of rectangle
$3,500 Next major resistance/all‑time high
🧭 Market Context & Drivers
Broad uptrend remains intact amid geopolitical tensions, especially the Israel–Iran situation, which continues to support safe-haven flows
Markets are positioning ahead of Fed’s June 18 decision; dovish signals could fuel continuation toward new highs (~$3,500+)
.
Technical structure reflects bullish momentum—ascending wedge patterns with shallow dips and strong trendline bounces
.
✅ Summary
Bias: Bullish – uptrend intact.
Strategy: Go long on dip near trendline or on breakout above $3,445.
Stop‑Loss: Just below last swing low ($3,360).
Targets:
Near-term: $3,448–3,450
Medium-term: $3,500+
XAUUSD: The beginning of range trading.Last week, I perfectly predicted the sharp rise in the market. At the beginning of this week, XAUUSD reached a high of 3451, which is the front pressure position. Due to the cooling of risk aversion in the international market, the New York market fell back to 3373 on Monday.
XAUUSD did experience a typical "news-driven callback", and the analysis of technical and fundamental aspects is very critical. The following is a professional analysis and operation suggestions for the current market:
Key points and technical structure
1. Pressure level: 3450 area
- The previous high pressure is effective. This is the resonance resistance area of the upper track of the daily level channel + Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level, and the demand for long profit-taking is concentrated.
2. Support level: 3370-3380 area
- Currently falling back to 3373, here is:
- 50-day moving average dynamic support
- 4-hour chart previous low level support platform
- Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level
- If the daily closing is above 3380, the technical structure is still a healthy correction.
News-driven logic
- Negative factors:
Geopolitical situation and peace talks ➜ Risk aversion cools down ➜ Gold's attractiveness as a safe-haven asset decreases.
- Potential risks:
The progress of peace talks may be repeated (such as the situation between Israel and Hamas and Russia and Ukraine). If the negotiations fail, safe-haven buying will return quickly. Need to keep an eye on news sources.
Key signals for long-short game
Long signal: long lower shadow candlestick appears in 3370 area, US dollar index (DXY) falls below 105.0
Short signal: rebound fails to break through 3400 integer mark, US bond yield rises above 4.3%
Trading strategy suggestion
- *Long order opportunity*: 3370-3380 light position to try long, stop loss 3355 (below the previous low), target 3400/3420.
- *Short order opportunity*: 3415-3425 to arrange short orders in batches, stop loss 3440, target 3390.
2: Break down
- Trigger condition: daily closing price <3365
The callback is upgraded to a deep correction
- Target: 3340→ 3300 (psychological barrier + trend line support)
- Operation: Chasing short needs to wait for a rebound to around 3400, stop loss 3420.
3: Restart the rise (probability 10%)
- Trigger condition: Break through 3440 and stand firm for 1 hour
- Possible driving force: Geopolitical conflict escalates/Fed rate cut expectations rise
- Target: 3480 (historical high psychological resistance) → 3500
- Operation: After breaking through 3440, step back to 3425 to chase longs, stop loss 3405.
Key event risks this week
1. Wednesday: US May CPI data (core CPI expected to be 3.5%)
- If data > expectations: expectations of rate hikes rise → bearish for gold
- If data < expectations: expectations of rate cuts come earlier → bullish for gold
2. Thursday: Fed interest rate decision + Powell press conference
- Pay attention to the dot plot's hints on the number of rate cuts in 2024 (current market pricing is about 2 times)
3. Geopolitical headlines: progress in the Iran nuclear agreement, black swan risks in the French election
Position management principles
1. Total risk exposure ≤ 5% of account net value
2. Reduce positions by 50% 3 hours before key events (avoid instantaneous fluctuations in CPI/FOMC)
3. Breakout strategy stop loss setting: 15 points outside the previous high/low to prevent burrs
Conclusion: The effectiveness of the current 3373 support needs to be verified by Wednesday's CPI data. It is recommended that the London market operate in the 3370-3420 range and reduce positions before the US market to wait for data guidance. If you hold long positions, 3380 is the last line of defense; if you hold short positions, consider taking profits in batches above 3400. The medium-term bullish trend of gold has not been broken, but the risk aversion premium needs to be digested in the short term.
If you need a more detailed entry point analysis or position management to solve your long-term loss problem, please feel free to tell me your trading cycle and risk preference, and I will provide you with a customized strategy.
I think these 2 scenarios can happen for gold to reach new ATHGold supported by Israel-Iran conflict, US intervention in focus
Gold's sharp rise came late last week after Israel struck multiple targets in Iran, including Tehran's nuclear facilities.
The attack sparked fierce retaliation from Iran, which launched a barrage of missiles at key Israeli targets, including the financial capital Tel Aviv. Some of the Iranian missiles were also seen penetrating Israel's "Iron Dome" defense system.
What do you think?
Best regards, StarrOne !!!
XAUUSD: Analysis H4 next weekThe continued tension in the Middle East (Israel–Iran) has led to a flight to safe havens, a key driver for gold.
Reduced pressure from the USD due to expectations that the Fed will slow down its rate cut (~September), coupled with inflationary pressures, could support gold prices
If tensions in the Middle East do not ease next week, gold's rally could extend and we could see 3500. But be careful, as if tensions ease and some good news from the USD comes, the rally could be halted.
