GOLD 20/6: Gold price weakening at the beginning of the morning The Federal Reserve's unclear direction regarding interest rate increases has resulted in limited price movement in the market. Congress is closely monitoring this situation.
So, The price of gold is having difficulty taking advantage of its small increase earlier in the day and is moving within a narrow range during the first half of the Asian session on Tuesday. Currently, the XAU/USD is trading around $1,950, with little change from the start of the day. It has been trading within a familiar range for the past month or so.
Gold price assessment on June 20, 23 continues to sideway narrowly in the range of $1935 - $1960
Canh Buy price range $1939-$1941, SL $1930 TP: 1955
Based on technical analysis indicators EMA 34, EMA 89 with support point $1939.
Xauusdsetup
XAUUSD: The market is gloomy at the beginning of the week!Technical analysis:
During a period of low volatility in the market, the Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) tend to closely follow the price line, resulting in a sideways pattern. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is currently moving at an average level. The significance of resistance and support levels is minimal in this scenario. This compressed price zone suggests a high likelihood of a breakout and the formation of a powerful wave.
Market view:
Last week, the Federal Reserve (Fed) indicated that there may be a need for borrowing costs to rise by up to 50 basis points (bps) by the end of the year. This has helped the US Dollar (USD) gain some positive momentum for the second day in a row. The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a variety of currencies, seems to be improving after hitting a one-month low. This is creating challenges for the price of Gold, which is denominated in US Dollars.
Additionally, the more hawkish stance taken by major central banks is also limiting the upside potential for Gold, as it does not generate any yield. It is worth noting that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) surprised the market with a 25 bps rate hike earlier this month. Furthermore, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised rates by 25 bps last week, bringing them to the highest level in 22 years. The ECB also indicated that further tightening measures may be implemented to combat inflation.
Would you start selling gold with this stock rally underway? As you may have heard, the Federal Reserve recently announced that they would be pausing rate hikes for the time being, with the potential for a boost later in the year. This news has had a significant impact on the gold market, as the US dollar continued to drop, which in turn raised the price of holding gold.
Despite this, gold has been range-bound over the last month and has seen little support. As such, I would like to encourage you to consider selling some gold at this time. While it can be difficult to part with an asset, it is important to consider the current market conditions and make informed decisions.
By selling some gold now, you may be able to capitalize on the current market conditions and potentially maximize your profits. Of course, it is important to consult with a trusted financial advisor before making any significant decisions.
XAUUSD: Are you looking for a beautiful entry point?Fundamental technical analysis:
In straightforward terms, the closest level of support for GOLD is at 1932, and it is expected to hold up well in the near future. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still below average, indicating a need for more liquidity for GOLD to continue its decline. The moving averages, specifically the EMA 34 and EMA 89, have crossed over, indicating a downtrend, although it is not entirely clear yet.
Market overview:
XAU/USD maintains its slight gains for the day, trading at familiar levels around $1,950. The improved investor sentiment is a result of recent US inflation figures, which support a more cautious approach from the Federal Reserve. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by only 0.1% MoM in May, slower than expected. Additionally, the Producer Price Index (PPI) contracted by 0.3% in the same month. These numbers suggest that price pressures are decreasing, validating the Fed's aggressive monetary policy implemented in March 2022.
Given this situation, it seems reasonable to expect an end to the tightening cycle, despite indications of a tight labor market that could potentially drive inflation back up. However, due to ongoing financial system pressures, US policymakers have decided to take a more cautious approach, making decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis.
The price of GOLD is predicted to experience a small uptick before facing a subsequent decline. It's important to note that even a slight increase in value helps maintain liquidity.
GOLD 14/6 - The downtrend is clearly formedGold prices have taken a dip and are currently trading at a daily low of $1,942.
This comes after the US dollar struggled earlier in the day, particularly with the US Consumer Price Index falling below market expectations.
This has caused some optimism in the market, with gold experiencing a bearish trend on the 4-hour chart.
The support levels are at 1,940 - 1,932 - 1,918, while the resistance levels are at 1,966 - 1,972 - 1,987.
Technical indicators are approaching oversold levels, and the 34 and 89 EMAs are currently moving around the $1955 level.
XAUUSD: Entry BUY?The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) recently released its report on the United States Consumer Price Index. According to the report, the CPI increased by just 0.1% for the month, causing the annual inflation level to drop from 4.9% in April to 4.0%. The Core CPI, on the other hand, rose 0.4% for the month and was up 5.3% from a year ago, in line with consensus forecasts.
Despite the cooling off of the headline CPI data, the Core figures suggest that inflation may still be a persistent issue, which could impact the US Federal Reserve's decision to hike rates. The Fed fund rates futures continue to show a 60% probability of a July Fed rate hike, while the US inflation report cements a pause this week. The probability for a June Fed rate hike pause jumped to 95% on the data release, compared to about 75% before the release.
XAUUSD: Its trend changed
Today, my plan was to continue to long it at a low level, but when the data was released, it didn't rise much. I told everyone that if it doesn't break the 1966-1969 resistance soon, it will continue to fall. then we all saw it, it failed to break resistance, so we changed plans, a short trade is made.
Just imagine, if we hadn't changed our strategy in time, what would our account look like now? I hope that after today's trading experience, everyone can gain something and realize that the market is changing rapidly, and we should respond flexibly.
Now, the market is rebounding, its resistance is around 1952-1957, after today's decline, its 1D chart has returned to the bearish pattern again, if it can't get back above 1960, it will fall below 1900 in the last few days!
XAUUSD: Buy
Today we continue to do long gold at a lower position according to the plan we have formulated.
In the 1D chart, the resistance of MA20 has been broken, and the arrangement of K lines also shows signs of forming a small bottom, which is beneficial to bulls.
The 1h chart shows that the price has broken through the suppression of all moving averages, and MACD is also in a bullish trend, so we are long today.
XAUUSD: Predict CPIFundamental technical analysis:
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently showing an upward trend; however, it is important to note that it is still forming a downtrend which is considered a risky price zone. The EMA 34 and EMA 89 indicators have not shown any significant changes yet. The trend lines are narrowing, indicating a potential strong breakout. If you decide to enter the trade at this time, you must understand that it comes with high risks but also high profits.
Market before and after CPI:
CIBC has analyzed the US CPI report for May and provided their comments on it. They predict that the core CPI will continue to rise due to the strong labor market and increased demand for housing, which has driven up prices. However, there is a chance that the core CPI may slightly decrease due to slower rental growth. Additionally, used car prices are expected to fall, and ISM service price indexes have decreased in May. CIBC believes that the FOMC will keep interest rates unchanged in their policy meeting this week. However, if the core index increases by 0.5% in May, policymakers will be compelled to raise interest rates in June.
GOLD new week - Many important newsIn recent months, central banks have played a significant role in supporting the value of gold. Their interest in purchasing the precious metal has hit record levels, and this has been a major factor in keeping gold prices stable. Despite this, the US Federal Reserve remains the key player in the gold market, and many believe that the price of gold will rise once the current monetary tightening cycle comes to an end.
Looking at the H4 time frame, it's clear that gold is currently moving sideways within a range of 1938-1980. If the price falls below the support level of 1938, it's likely that it will continue to drop to around 1900 or even lower. On the other hand, if it breaks past the resistance level of 1980, the price of gold is expected to surge above $2,000.
XAUUSD: Small time frame developments!Fundamental technical analysis:
- EMA 34 & EMA 89: When the EMA 34 remains higher than the EMA 89, there is a positive trend being displayed.
- RSI: In the H1 time frame, the RSI had a breakout and rose above the averages. Clearly showing a slight uptrend.
- Resistance - Support (zone): create a large range and these zones react very strongly.
Basic overview:
At the beginning of the week, the price of gold dropped below $1,950 as investors reacted to the impressive May jobs report from the US. The report showed that Nonfarm Payrolls had risen by 339,000, surpassing the market expectation of 190,000 by a wide margin. However, in the second half of the day, the US Dollar came under selling pressure as the ISM Services PMI survey revealed a loss of momentum in service sector activity. The survey also showed a decline in input inflation and a drop in the sector's payrolls, prompting XAU/USD to regain traction and Gold to close the day in positive territory.
XAUUSD: Buy
In last Friday's trading, the strategy I gave was short selling, and at the same time I briefly explained today's trading, I believe all the friends in the channel know.
Today, gold rebounded after stepping back on the support of 1955, which is in line with our plan to be long gold. First of all, congratulations to friends who participated in long trading, they have already reaped some profits.
Now, in the gold 1h chart, MACD has formed a golden cross, which is favorable for bulls. Judging from the trend of the previous wave, this rise will break through the resistance near 1969, and the important resistance will appear near 1985.
So today's trading focus is on long trading.
trading signal:
buy:1958-1948
tp:1974-1983
GOLD - Bulls are working hardAccording to the H4 chart, the short-term outlook for the XAU/USD pair seems favorable, despite a slight loss in upward momentum.
Technical indicators have flattened out after crossing into positive territory, as the pair consolidates near daily highs.
Gold has also recovered above the 34 EMA and is trending upwards.
However, the $1,970 level has seen resistance from sellers, and immediate resistance must be surpassed for the pair to extend its rally to the next Fibonacci retracement at 38.2%, located at 1,985.65$.
Keep an eye out for a potential breakout above the 1970 price zone , which could trigger a new uptrend for gold. If using the Temporary Breakout strategy, wait for a close above the zone and set a stop loss at the nearest price stop.