Monday Market Analysis and SignalsGold prices fluctuated in a narrow range in early Asian trading on Monday and are currently trading around $2,647 per ounce. Gold prices closed slightly lower after a sharp fluctuation last Friday, as a stronger-than-expected US jobs report poured cold water on expectations of aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in November, boosting the dollar to a more than one-and-a-half-month high, and US Treasury yields also rose sharply to a nearly two-month high, overshadowing risk aversion concerns over the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East.
Last week, gold prices struggled to make decisive moves in either direction as the strength of the US dollar offset the growing safe-haven demand for gold. Developments surrounding the Middle East conflict and US inflation data may drive gold prices this week. On the other hand, if the minutes reflect that policymakers are open to further significant rate cuts when data show a recession or a deteriorating labor market outlook, the dollar may come under pressure and drive gold higher.
This week, global financial markets will usher in a series of major events, with the release of the Federal Reserve minutes, US September inflation data, and the earnings reports of major banks all becoming the focus of investors. US stocks are hovering at high levels, and the future direction depends on the performance of these key data. In addition, the return of the Asia-Pacific market, Tesla's important activities, gold's safe-haven demand and geopolitical risks in oil prices will also play an important role in driving market volatility.
Gold triangle consolidation, range oscillation. After the release of NFP on Friday, gold fluctuated widely and closed above the middle position of 2650. A wide range of fluctuations was formed in the range of 2670-2630. It is expected to be adjusted in this range at the beginning of the week. Technically, the daily MA10/7-day moving average is glued at the current position of 2653, the four-hour chart Bollinger band closing moving average is glued, and the RSI indicator is adjusted in the middle axis. Gold maintains a wide range of fluctuations. Sell high and buy low in operation!
Asian trading strategy:
2631-2633 long, stop loss 2622, target 2650-2660;
2667-2670 short, stop loss 2679, target 2630-2640;
Xauusdsignal
XAUUSD sell setup from the resistanceXauusd despite good NFP and unemployment rate gold recovered on Friday lows, Expecting the bullish momentum till 2672-78 from which we can expect sell till 2641.5
As on weekly chart we see bull don't have much moment left as of now which indicates a clear retracement .
My target is 2641.5
XAUUSD Top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
Gold Nearing Major Support at 2667 - Bullish ReversalGold is approaching a crucial support level at 2667 on the 4-hour chart, signaling a potential bullish reversal. This level holds significant importance due to its confluence with technical indicators that suggest a possible upward move. Let’s break down the key elements of the current setup:
2667 is a well-established major support level where buyers have historically stepped in, making it a critical zone to watch.
RSI (Relative Strength Index) has crossed above 50 multiple times, which is a strong signal of increasing bullish momentum. This suggests that, despite recent price consolidation, there is underlying strength in the market. The fact that RSI is sustaining above the midline indicates that the market sentiment is shifting towards bullishness.
On the 4-hour chart, the most recent candle formed a Hammer, a classic bullish reversal pattern. This suggests that the market is rejecting lower prices, with buyers defending the support level.
Gold closed the weekend at 2667.80, sitting right on this major support level, further confirming the importance of this zone.
All these technical indicators point towards a potential bullish setup for Gold, with the RSI's multiple crossings above 50 strengthening the case for upside movement. If the price bounces from this support, we could see a rally in the near term.
However, it's essential to recognize that Gold's price action is also influenced by global events, particularly geopolitical tensions such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and unrest in the Middle East. These developments could introduce volatility and sudden shifts in sentiment.
Traders should closely monitor price behavior around the 2667 support level and look for further confirmations of a bullish reversal, such as continued RSI strength, bullish candlestick formations, and breaks above resistance levels. If the support holds and these signals align, Gold could be poised for a significant upward move. However, a failure to maintain this level may lead to further downside, so caution is advised.
Stay updated on global events, as they can heavily impact Gold's trajectory in the days ahead.
10/4/24 wait news ATH from XAU ! NF XAU / USD trend forecast October 4, 2024
Gold price (XAU/USD) continues trading within a narrow range, as traders await a new catalyst to determine the next directional move. Attention is focused on the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, set to be released later on Friday. The data could shape expectations about the pace of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, impacting US Dollar demand and influencing gold prices.
NF and war tensions are the main drivers for gold prices to continue to rise - creating new ATH
/// SELL XAU : zone 2698-2700
SL: 2706
TP: 50 - 100 - 200 pips (2680)
Safe and profitable trading
The Calm Before the Storm: A Waterfall-like Decline is Coming...
Today is Thursday, and with key data releases scheduled for New York trading hours and tomorrow’s much-anticipated NFP and unemployment figures, the market is far from quiet. My advice for today is to focus on selling, despite the possibility of some upward movement. However, from a daily chart perspective, the likelihood of a downturn is much stronger.
The 5-day moving average (MA5) has already turned downward, and it’s just a matter of time before the bearish trend takes hold. When it does, this won’t be just a simple correction like we saw last time. I’m predicting a waterfall-like decline.
Here’s my anticipated price action: a drop to around 2600, followed by a short rebound to approximately 2630, and finally, a deeper plunge to the 2570 region.
XAUUSD 15M BUY PROJECTION 04.10.24Reason for Gold Bullish
It is known to be a “safe-haven” asset, it is expected to increase its value in times of volatility and economic uncertainty. The XAU/USD pair tells the trader how many US Dollar (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one Gold Ounce (the base currency).
XAUUSD: NFP data and trading strategies for the next two weeks
Yesterday's gold movement largely aligned with expectations, with relatively limited fluctuations. However, today is unlikely to be as calm, as the market now faces two sharply contrasting scenarios:
If the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) and unemployment data are bullish for gold, and the price remains within its current range, we could see a rebound, testing or even breaking the previous high before retreating to current levels.
Alternatively, before or shortly after the data release, gold may retest the resistance near its previous high (or consolidate below the 2668 level) and then begin a significant decline, potentially forming a double-top pattern (with a break below 2620).
Disregarding the data, from a technical standpoint, the daily chart (D1) shows that gold is at a critical juncture. Recent price movements have hovered near key support levels, with some indicators clearly signaling weakness. A decisive move is imminent.
Scenario 1: Gold consolidates near support, gathering momentum and bolstering bullish sentiment, leading to a second upward push—similar to the rally initiated around the 2500 level. If the market demonstrates strength, prices could challenge the 2700-2710 zone, followed by a weekly close showing weakness. A significant pullback of no less than $100 could then ensue.
Scenario 2: Bullish momentum fades, and the bears start to take control. A double-top formation would likely emerge, targeting the 2625-2611 support zone. If bulls fail to hold these levels, the next bearish targets would be in the 2590-2570 region.
I hope this analysis provides valuable insight for your upcoming trades. Wishing you all the best of luck!
PMI - momentum for NF - prepares to increase prices⭐️ Smart investment, Strong finance
⭐️ GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Gold prices remain supported by escalating Middle East tensions. On Tuesday, Iran fired over 200 missiles at Israel, and early Thursday, Israel launched airstrikes on central Beirut, Lebanon, increasing fears of a larger conflict. This ongoing instability boosts demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Meanwhile, traders are likely holding back from making strong moves, awaiting Friday's key US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for clearer direction.
⭐️ Personal comments NOVA:
According to the H1 frame - gold prices form an upward trend - NF this week will determine the upcoming trend for Gold - NOVA leans towards upward price momentum thanks to middle east tensions - gold price has more upward momentum
⭐️ SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $2644 - $2641 SL $2637
TP1: $2650
TP2: $2660
TP3: $2672
🔥SELL GOLD zone: $2672 - $2674 SL $2679
TP1: $2665
TP2: $2650
TP3: $2641
⭐️ Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order.
⭐️ NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
- The winner is the one who sticks with the market the longest
Uncertainty in Gold: Is a New Leg of Correction on the Horizon?Yesterday, OANDA:XAUUSD exhibited significant volatility, with sharp fluctuations both upward and downward. However, by the close of the session, the price remained relatively unchanged, lacking a clear directional trend. The current price movement suggests a phase of consolidation, indicating that a more definitive direction may emerge soon.
Traders are now observing key levels that could guide future moves. On the upside, the 2663-2665 zone is seen as a resistance level, which could signal a bullish breakout if breached. Conversely, the 2645-2650 range serves as a support zone, indicating a potential bearish move if the price falls below this level.
From a personal perspective, I anticipate that gold might break to the downside, leading to a new corrective phase that could potentially drive the price toward the 2600 level.
That said, this is merely my view, and there is always the possibility of being wrong. Therefore, my invalidation point for this bearish scenario would be a break above the established resistance zone, which would signal the need to reassess the situation.
In conclusion, while the market remains in a state of indecision, these key levels provide traders with important reference points to monitor for potential breakouts or reversals in the near future.
XAUUSD must be shorted today and tomorrow!News: As I said in the past two days, although the United States today 'the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States to the beginning of the week on September 28th‘ has a lot of gold, the gold market does not rise but falls. This shows that the strength of the bulls in the gold market is insufficient, and many investors are not optimistic about the rise of gold when the U.S. economy has recovered.
Therefore, tomorrow the release of the US‘September quarter-adjusted non-farm payrolls’ data will explode the entire gold market, and gold will choose its direction again.
Judging from the current various news, the U.S. economy is recovering, and tomorrow's ’U.S. September quarter-adjusted non-farm payrolls' data will be bearish for gold, so the trend of gold today and tomorrow will be dominated by empty heads!
Therefore, the strategy of gold in the past two days is still mainly shorting: continue to short the gold market near 2655!
Need more trading signals and strategies, welcome to the comment area!
XAU/USD: Is the 2650 Break Sustainable or Driven by Emotion?Yesterday, OANDA:XAUUSD (Gold) broke back above the 2650 level, a point of significant psychological and technical importance. This level is critical due to the confluence of a horizontal support line and the falling trendline of the down-channel pattern.
While this upward break may seem promising, I believe it is not likely to be a sustainable move.
In my view, this breakout appears to be driven more by emotional reactions rather than genuine market demand.
As a result, I believe the current correction for Gold is not yet complete, and we could see another downward move in the near future.
From a technical perspective, the 2650 level acts as a critical "line in the sand." Should the price drop back below this level, the first target would likely be the recent low, with the potential for an extended decline towards the next major support zone around 2590. This area marks an important technical level that could offer stronger support if the downtrend continues.
At the time of writing, I am currently out of the market, and waiting for further clarification.
I am particularly looking for a decisive drop back below 2650, which would reinforce my bearish outlook and provide confirmation for a potential short trade.
XAU 10/3 ! break and buy now ! touch old ATH 2681XAU / USD trend forecast October 3, 2024
Gold price (XAU/USD) remains under pressure during Thursday's Asian session due to a stronger US Dollar, supported by reduced expectations of aggressive Fed rate cuts. Wednesday's positive US ADP report highlighted labor market stability, causing investors to further lower their bets on a large rate cut in November. As a result, the USD Index (DXY) reached a three-week high, weakening demand for gold.
Gold price moves in large range - touches H2 downtrend trendline
Upward view based on world war tension in the middle east
/// BUY XAU : zone 2641-2644
SL: 2636
TP: 50 - 100 - 300 pips (2671)
Safe and profitable trading
XAUUSD | GOLDSPOT | New perspective | follow-up detailGold trimmed its weekly gains on Friday as traders assessed recent US economic data and its potential impact on Federal Reserve policy. With disinflationary trends suggesting steady rate cuts, Gold continues to shine. However, expectations for a 50 basis point cut in November have eased following strong US macroeconomic data. Key reports like the decline in Initial Jobless Claims to 218K, solid Q2 GDP growth at 3.0%, and stronger-than-expected Durable Goods Orders have sparked debate about a possible economic soft landing.
In this video, I break down how these factors could shape price action in the Gold market, and explore trading strategies for both buyers and sellers. With the probability of a 50 bps rate cut now down to 50%, I have analyzed potential scenarios and how I plan to capitalize on the upcoming opportunities. Make sure to watch till the end for my technical analysis and outlook for the coming week.
XAUUSD Technical Overview:
This week, we're focusing on the $2,640 zone. This could be a make-or-break point. If gold stays above this zone: Bulls might maintain control, potentially pushing prices higher and setting up new highs. If gold drops below the zone, Bears might gain the upper hand in an attempt to retrace into the structure-support line of the ascending channel. Join me as we explore these factors and potential opportunities in the gold market. Like, subscribe, and hit the notification bell for the latest analysis and insights!
📌 Follow my journey as I map out the next moves in this dynamic market!
#GoldMarket #FedRateCuts #USData #GoldTrading #ForexAnalysis #GoldForecast #EconomicOutlook #TradingStrategies #InvestingInGold #MarketUpdates📺🔔💼
Disclaimer Notice:
Trading in the foreign exchange market and other instruments carries a high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content provided here is for educational purposes only. Evaluate your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
#XAUUSD 1HBased on the 1-hour analysis, the price is currently hovering near the support level. I'm personally eyeing a selling opportunity, but we need to wait for the price to close below 2640.00 first.
Once that happens, we can place limit orders near the key retracement levels.
For now, avoid placing any advance orders. Wait for strong bearish confirmations before entering.
#XAUUSD
Gold Price Analysis October 3Fundamental Analysis
The US dollar (USD) extended its recovery from its lowest level since July 2023 and advanced to a three-week high amid fading prospects of more aggressive easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed). This, in turn, was seen as a major factor undermining demand for the non-yielding yellow metal, although continued tensions in the Middle East helped limit losses.
Iran launched more than 200 ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday, while Israel conducted a precision airstrike and bombed the center of Beirut in Lebanon early Thursday. This raised the risk of a full-blown war in the region and dampened investor appetite for riskier assets, which was reflected in the generally weaker tone in equity markets and acted as a boost to safe-haven gold prices. The US economic agenda on Thursday could provide some impetus for XAU/USD, although the focus will still be on the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.
Technical Analysis
Technically, the trading range is still maintained around the 2643 and 2671 areas. There is no strong movement yet, gold is still having difficulty breaking out of this price range. The main BUY SELL entry that we are waiting for is still in the 2683-2685 and 2624-2622 areas.
There is a small resistance in the 2645 - 2642 area, stoploss is placed at 2640 only. This resistance is a bit thin, move gently.
Resistance 2636 - 2635 stoploss 2630 catch up a beat before the US session.
Wait until the US, the margin is further, if the price falls, you can only catch it at 2622 - 2620, stoploss 2616.
Break point 2664, then wait for 2672 - 2674 to sell lightly again, stoploss 2678
Sell point 2683 - 2685, stoploss 2689
Round resistance 2690 is not expected much but note here to pay attention to how it is. Focus on the 2700 area.
XAUUSD: The bears are about to strike back
In the past few days, I lost my grandmother, and it has been a deeply sad time. After attending her funeral today, I found myself reflecting on many things. Life is short, and whether we pursue fame or wealth, nothing is as important as the health and happiness of our loved ones. I sincerely hope that everyone here can live a healthy and joyful life, with all your wishes coming true.
Turning back to the gold market, after a significant rally, we’ve seen a pullback to test support before another rebound to resistance, followed by another decline. We’re now at a critical turning point. From the 30-minute chart, we can observe a pattern resembling a double top. If it breaks the trendline, a decline to the $2600 level seems inevitable—there’s no need to doubt it.
My mid-term target remains $2568-$2490, and I believe we may see this play out sooner than expected.
This Week’s Profit Doubling PlanNews: Today's U.S. market will have a sharp bearish gold on the ‘U.S. ADP employment numbers for September’, but gold did not fall in time. This is not difficult to understand. After all, many investors in the market do not buy short-selling accounts after the interest rate hike.
But I think there will definitely be a wave of bearish trends in the future. At the same time, some international institutions will use this wave to increase shipments. After all, the U.S. economy is still recovering, so to a certain extent, it will suppress the rise of gold.
Judging from the bearish gold in the US ADP data tonight, the US economy has also been developing for the better recently.Therefore, there is a high probability that the speech of the Fed governor later will be bearish on gold.Then this Friday's ’U.S. September quarter-adjusted non-farm payrolls' data will also bearish gold.
So the overall gold trend this week is empty!Insist on short-selling!
Today's strategy: Short the gold market near 2660, and add a position near 2665!
Daily strategy, daily updates, remember to pay more attention,A lot of benefits!
#XAUUSD 1HBased on the 1-hour analysis, the price is consolidating around the support area, and I'm eyeing a potential buying opportunity from the key level and zone between 2640.00 and 2644.00.
Targets: 2655.00 / 2672.00
Avoid placing any advance orders for now. Look for strong bullish confirmations before entering.
#XAUUSD
This week's gold trading strategyThis week's gold trading strategy, be able to understand and follow, there will be a 50% profit this week!
News: Everyone knows that the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates some time ago, which added a fire to the entire gold market. In addition, the global geopolitical conflict has ignited the entire gold market, causing the price of gold to reach 2700!For all of us traders, what we want to know most is which direction the market should go next.
First of all, the news is that the United States has cut interest rates, and the impact of geopolitical risks has been almost digested by the market, so it is a bit difficult for gold to hit the high point!
In addition, after the U.S. interest rate cut, it will definitely focus on economic development, so the U.S. economy will improve next, so the dollar index will rise, and the price of gold will also fluctuate and fall!
So I judge that in the next week or so, the gold market will fluctuate and fall!
Technical aspects: You can see that the candlestick chart of gold is currently in a downtrend channel. Although it has broken through the top of the uptrend channel, it is not a real technical breakthrough. It is caused by today's US data ‘ISM Manufacturing PMI for September'. Gold will return to the trend next, so it is best to go short at a high level, but go long at a low level in the trend!
News forecast: U.S. ADP employment in September (10,000 people)-bearish gold
U.S. non-farm payrolls after September quarter-adjusted (10,000 people)-bearish gold
This week's point strategy: 2670 short, 2675 increase position
2620 go long, 2615 increase position
If you want to see specific trading signal strategies, please consult in the comments area!