Gold: unyielding gold loyal to dollarI told u guys about gold having trend in trend in 1htf in previous post and what is likely to play and we've only broken down from orange uptrend and now trying to head down to the down part of the yellow trend. The market pulled out of 1695 zone which I put as the first target. If the zone is to be crossed 1670s will be next down followed by 1660s. If the 1680-95 zones is crossed 1670s and 60s will be a nice place to try a buy to keep opportunity if hold. Decline to 1640s can still be on the card for the Bears.
Xauusdsignals
XAUUSD is a buy again but act cautiouslyWe have been bearish on Gold (XAUUSD) since the March (war) peak and especially since the start of the month have been warning of a potential $100 collapse:
This time however we have a number of indicators pushing the scale in favor of (short-term at least) buying again after 2 months. The chart on the left is on the 1D time-frame, while the one on the right is on the 4H. As we see on the 1D, the RSI started to find Support while trading within a Channel Down since April. This could be similar to the March 2021 bottom that made a short-term rebound to 1755.
With 4H showing the price action since July 06 within a Channel Down but the 4H RSI on Higher Lows (bullish divergence), we are waiting for a break of the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line on the 4H chart, red on the 1D) to target 1755. A new break above 1760 constitutes a new bullish break-out signal towards the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) - 1D MA50 (red trend-line on the 4H chart, blue trend-line on the 1D chart) cluster. After that we have to evaluate based on the macro-economics at the time. There are the Fibonacci retracement levels involved for a longer-term approach.
A rejection on the 4H MA50 or the 1760 Resistance, are both short-term sell signals.
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Gold: indecisive Gold wanderingGold have been wandering sideways for sometimes now having no direction. This is 1hr timeframe having trend in trend. A break up of the yellow trend comes 1720 which if broken brings 1748 next and after which comes 1770s. While break down of the orange trend come 1695 which if broken come 1670s. Possible wide 4h uptrend in play.
Good luck
Gold: no sign of mean reversal at the mean timeWe have achieved our goal to 1753 from 1878. Further downside looks more likely than upside. Gold recently broke out of new 1hr timeframe uptrend having triple touch at the top of the trend which is likely to lead to the new trend expansion. Downside targets first at 1722 and second at 1670-80s. Gold need to trade above 1700 for hope back to 1878 to yearly high to be on the card. Failure to do so to limit upside potentials. Break below 1700
XAUUSD Flash crash to 1680 still possible.Gold (XAAUSD) broke this week below the 30.000 1D RSI for the first time since August 2021. It was only a week ago when we warned of this potential collapse based on the following 1M (monthly) structure:
Now on this 1D time-frame analysis, we see that following the 1D Death Cross (when the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line)), this isn't as unexpected and follows very closely the sell-off Gold had after the February 15 2021 1D Death Cross. As a result, even though the price has crossed below the 2 year buy level (1760), it is very likely to see one last flush to the 1680 Support before a new trend emerges. Especially considering the high volatility that today's Nonfarm Payrolls report (NFP) usually brings to the table. A consolidation next month within this zone is possible according to the 1M study, so consider the risks when proceeding to long-term buying.
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Gold- Sell rallies for a new lowAs I expected, yesterday Gold dropped and not only did it reach my 1780 target but has dropped under reaching a local low to around the 1760 zone.
Not the price seems to have stabilized and a corrective rally could follow.
This correction can give bears a good opportunity to enter the market in expectation of a down continuation.
The old support at the 1780 zone is now resistance and in this zone I m looking to sell.
Gold back above 1800 would negate this scenario
Gold- Down to 1780 support again?Yesterday it was the 4th of July and, with American markets closed, is no wonder Gold bearly moved.
Also, looking at the posted chart we can see that, in the past 6 weeks, the price action was pretty choppy and the pattern is an arch, suggesting down continuation.
Support at this moment is at 1780 and, as I mentioned before, a break here could lead to a further drop, even to 1680.
On the other hand, a break back above 1830 would negate my bearish scenario and expose the 1875 recent high.
XAUUSD Holding the Support but still huge Resistance aboveGold (XAUUSD) is rising on the short-term after the July 01 Low, which was accomplished on a Support Zone holding since December 21 2021. On a 2 month horizon, this can be viewed as a Double Bottom on a Descending Triangle pattern. If last week's low breaks, the Support to be targeted is the 1720.50 September 29 Low.
As you see there are numerous Lower Highs trend-lines involved, the price remains below the 1D MA50 (yellow trend-line) since April 22, so it is best to apply a break-out buy strategy above the 1D MA50 and March LH with a short-term target the 1880 Resistance. Anything in between can only be scalped on the hourly/ minute time-frames.
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XAUUSD could be on the brink of collapse.This is a chart that no-one in the Gold (XAUUSD) market (or as a matter of fact in the metals market) wants to see fulfilled as the 1M (monthly) time-frame presents a devastating scenario for the next 1 year at least.
As you see this is based on a fractal taken from Gold's previous Cycle Top (September 2011). The 1M RSI particularly has been on a bearish trend since the July 2020 peak and is following almost precisely the peak pattern of Aug 2011. Right now it appears that the market could be after the September 2012 final High which started a violent 1 year correction below the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line).
See that both the candle action and the MA periods involved, align almost perfectly with the price right now trading below the 1D MA200 (yellow trend-line), having broken below the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) which on February 2013 was the trigger signal for the collapse. Being close to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, we may have the first Support involved but watch for a 1D MA200/ 1W MA100 Bearish Cross. That should be enough technically to hit at least the 1M MA50 in the coming months. That level has been holding since the start of Gold's mega rally in December 2018. Closing below that on a monthly basis would be devastating as the market can lose confidence completely and go on to test the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line), which surprisingly or not has been untouched for almost 20 years since August 2003!
We have to note that the macro-environment is different now as 1) we are not getting out of a crisis/ recession as severe as the 2008/09 Subprime Mortgage crisis and 2) the Fed Interest Rate is not flat as in 2013 but is rising aggressively instead. As a result this technical fractal may not repeated because such fundamentals are strong enough to invalidate it. As a result a proper investor should keep an eye on the macro-economic developments (Fed, war, inflation) and be ready to close a technical position if it gets invalidated as quickly as possible.
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Gold: planning to settle below 1827-23 near term Gold traded bit freely today but still ranged and getting back to choppy mode before the close. Gold upside is still getting more limited with upside risk looking likely down to 1832. At 1830 I'll be tempted to sell and at 1832 I won't hesitate to sell with my risk management. The new resistance is at 1823, 1827 ahead of 1830 and 1832. If any move up to 1830-32 swing down below 1823-27 I expect it to settle below 1827. A visit to 1800 is needed before considering reasonable high. If the price goes up to 1830-32 and goes down to 1819-14 zone and start heading back near 1832 again I'll stay out of the trade and see what's the plan. Goodluck!
XAUUSD completed 2 months below the 1D MA50. What's next?Gold (XAUUSD) has been trading within a Channel Up since the March 31 2021 Low, with the exception of two extremes, one Low (August 09 2021) caused by the NFP report and one High (March 08 2022) caused by the escalation of the Ukraine-Russia war.
What's even more interesting is that Gold has been trading below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for 2 full-months (since April 25). In fact the latest rejection on June 13 has turned the price action neutral around the 1W MA100 (red trend-line). However as long as we remain above the Higher Lows (bottom) trend-line of the Channel Up, there is a strong chance of getting a rally. Needless to say, a 1D candle close above the 1D MA50 is required.
This sideways price action since the May 16 Low seems like a bottom formation that (in RSI terms also) resembles July-August 2021. This would create numerous buy low sell high trading opportunities before a rally to the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. Fundamentally as long as the macro condition on stocks stays that way, Gold takes the hit of they high US10Y. Keep an eye on a potential reversal there if you want to better time a break upwards.
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XAUUSD Trading plan until the end of summer.This Gold (XAUUSD) analysis is on the 4H time-frame where the current consolidation becomes clearer. As you see all three 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), 4H MA100 (green trend-line) and 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) have converged is a similar (almost) Double Bottom fashion as the March 2021 and July 2021 fractals. On all three occasions, the 1D RSI hit the 30.00 oversold level and the price rebounded (attention again, the candle action is on the 4H time-frame while the RSI on the 1D).
With the exception of the August 04-06 2021 flash crash on fundamentals, the market hit the 0.5 and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement levels for the July and March fractals respectively. On the August flash crash the price plummeted as low as the -0.382 Fib extension.
As a result, we maintain a buy position on Gold throughout the Summer targeting 1920 (just below the 0.5 Fib) and then with the SL moved on profit, pursuing the 2000 mark (just below the 0.786 Fib) in extension. However with a break below the 1787 Support, we will book losses and switch to a sell instead, targeting the -0.382 Fib ext at 1680.
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XAUUSD - GOLD CURRENT SITUATION- US10Y is currently slightlyD DOWN to 3.28% LEVEL. Like we said before, it's been a bit of a CORRECTION in the last few days. But now the us10y is up fast. We can see that the POSITIVE SENTIMENT for USD ECONOMIC DATA is also very POSITIVE for DXY.
- The GOLD PRICE is currently moving slightly below the DYNAMIC S / R LEVELS. Most likely the SHORT TERM will be slightly UP ahead of the GOLD PRICE. GOLD SHORT TERM has a UP SIDE BIAS but may be more DOWN under the influence of DOLLAR in the future. this time gold will up.
- GOLD PRICE can be UP again to 1910 LEVEL. A
- However, the bigger picture will change if a new sentiment enters the market or the market takes a risk to strengthen the US dollar first.
XAUUSD - GOLD CURRENT SITUATION- US10Y is currently up to 3.41% LEVEL .. Now us10y is up fast with US RATE HIKE. We can see that the POSITIVE SENTIMENT that came for USD ECONOMIC DATA is also very POSITIVE for DXY.
- The power of USD is still very strong in GOLD. DXY DOWN very fast last week. But now it is becoming UP. We look forward to hearing from DXY. US10Y LONG TERM UP is going to be with this RATE HIKE CYCLE and this MARKET CONDITION. Currently DXY is getting slightly UP with MARKET RISK OFF. Also, when we look at DXY, it has moved to DXY 105.28 LEVEL.
- The GOLD PRICE is currently moving slightly below the DYNAMIC S / R LEVELS. Most likely the SHORT TERM will be slightly UP ahead of the GOLD PRICE. GOLD SHORT TERM has a UP SIDE BIAS but may be more DOWN under the influence of DOLLAR in the future. So it's a bit of a GOLD STRUCTURE BREAK and is currently selling.
- Currently the OVERALL MARKET is RISK OFF. STOCKS is currently displaying a DOWNSIDE BIAS. And the VOLATILITY is getting a bit UP. Also COMMODITIES still shows a DOWN SIDE BIAS. Currently there is only one RISK OFF TONE in the market. Therefore, all currencies such as NZD CAD AUD may definitely be somewhat DOWN in the future. Also JPY CHF can be UP.
- GOLD PRICE can be UP again before DOWN until 1866 LEVEL. After that you can definitely DOWN up to GOLD price up to 1765 LEVEL.
- However, the bigger picture will change if a new sentiment enters the market or the market takes a risk to strengthen the US dollar first.
GOLD NEAR FUTURE PREDICTION(4H Chart)Technical Analysis Summary
XAU/USD
TREND ANALYSIS
We have 1 Downtrend in red color
We have 1 Uptrend in green color which we have currently BROKEN
Be careful trends need to be modified when broken to the new peaks(Downtrend) and lows (Uptrend).
FUTURE PREDICTIONS
We have many resistance and support levels that I have mentioned above.
I use thickness as an indicator of strength of levels (ONLY FOR VISUALS).
White Levels are levels from my past ideas published (4H Support level) or levels that were respected from the past (4H Resistance level).
Good luck everyone, stay safe!
If you need help don't hesitate to send me a message or comment
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Trading Involves High Risk
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Exercise Proper Risk Management
Gold likely to trend for sometimes no matter FED decisionGold is under heavy selling pressure and any meaningful upswing is set to be be capping at the thick black trendine detailed by the info line 4.4 range which goes from 1943 to 47 any break above likely to pull back in 1 candlestick in higher timeframe till USD dream to 1800-1753 come through a close above the thick black trendine will likely turn the dream to night mare
GOLD NEAR FUTURE PREDICTION(4H Chart)Technical Analysis Summary
XAU/USD
TREND ANALYSIS
We have 1 Downtrend in red color
We have 1 Uptrend in green color which we have currently BROKEN
Be careful trends need to be modified when broken to the new peaks(Downtrend) and lows (Uptrend).
FUTURE PREDICTIONS
We have many resistance and support levels that I have mentioned above.
I use thickness as an indicator of strength of levels (ONLY FOR VISUALS).
White Levels are levels from my past ideas published or levels that were respected from the past.
Good luck everyone, stay safe!
If you need help don't hesitate to send me a message or comment
If you find this content beneficial please don't forget to LIKE and FOLLOW
Trading Involves High Risk
Not Financial Advice
Exercise Proper Risk Management
XAUUSD Still bearish unless the 1D MA50 breaks.A lot of volatility lately on Gold (XAUUSD) with the inflation data weighing on the technically bearish long-term pattern, which as we outlined last week was a Channel Down:
As you see, the price got indeed rejected on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line on the current chart, red on the previous analysis), which is just below the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down. Naturally, the price is heavily bearish, trending towards the 1789 Support, i.e. the May 16 Low, as it broke below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Still, there seems to be a strong medium-term Support around the 1D MA200. So best to do is trade upon confirmation, i.e. bearish continuation with a sell trade if the 1778 bottom of the 2021 Support Zone breaks (target the -0.236 Fibonacci extension as a Lower Low) and buy if the price closes above the 1D MA50, or even better above the 0.382 Fib (target progressively the higher Fibonacci levels).
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