Exclusive trading strategy, short gold!From the current gold structure, we can see that gold still needs to continue to retest the 3320-3310, or even the 3305-3295 area; so in the short term, we can still seize the opportunity to consider shorting gold in batches in the 3340-3360 area.
Trading signal:
@3340-3360 Sell, TP:3325-3315-3305
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I hold on to my short position and wait patiently.Currently, gold continues to rebound to around 3358, and there has been no decent retracement during the rebound, so during the trading period, apart from chasing the rise, there are almost no opportunities to go long on gold; so is the steady rise in gold during the day brewing a bigger rally?
I think there are three reasons for the continued rise of gold:
1. The continued weakness of the US dollar provides support for the strong rise of gold;
2. The trapped long chips have recently shown self-rescue behavior, and strong buying funds have driven gold up;
3. The market intends to eliminate and kill a large number of shorts in recent times;
Based on the above reasons, I think it is not a wise decision to chase gold at present; on the contrary, I still prefer to short gold in the short term, and I still hold a short position now; the following are the reasons to support my insistence on shorting gold:
1. The US dollar has a technical rebound demand after a sharp drop, which will limit the rebound space of gold and suppress gold;
2. After the recent trapped long chips successfully rescue themselves, they may cash out in large quantities, thereby stimulating gold to fall again;
3. While killing the shorts, the market has also lured a large number of long funds to a certain extent. Based on the above reasons, I currently still hold short positions near 3345 and 3355, and hope that gold can retreat to the 3335-3325 area.
Gold falls back, is a bottom structure emerging?In terms of one-hour structure, this round of phased adjustment started from 3450 has not ended yet, but it will soon, especially the rapid rebound after the bottom of 3260 on Monday. This rebound has strong momentum. After bottoming out and rebounding, it is currently fluctuating around 3340, with a large overall span. This also shows that after the price has risen, the amplitude of the correction has increased, which means that the upward space is limited. This adjustment is likely to be over soon, but there is no definite bottom structure yet, so we need to wait for some time.
Before going out of the definite bottom structure, based on the principle of following the trend, you can try to short with a light position. At present, in terms of the one-hour pattern, the key point is here at 3355, and it is currently falling back from this position to 3340. If it falls back to the 3320 area today and stabilizes above it, you can operate a long strategy. On the whole, Quaid suggests that the short-term operation strategy for gold today should be mainly long on pullbacks, supplemented by shorting on rebounds.
Operation strategy:
Short at 3345, stop loss at 3355, profit range 3330-3325.
Long at 3320, stop loss at 3310, profit range 3340-3345.
Gold surged and then fell. Has it reached its peak?Information summary:
Today, the United States and Japan negotiated on tariffs. Trump said that the US-Japan deal was unfair and might send a letter to Japan; the US-Japan trade negotiations seemed to be at a standstill. Trump also threatened that he would not extend the expiring tariff period and would send letters to most countries and regions in the next few days.
Secondly, the United States accused the EU of unfair digital legislation and asked the EU to relax its supervision of US technology giants. In addition, Trump accused "Mr. Too Late" Powell and the entire committee on social media that they should be ashamed of not cutting interest rates.
Affected by the above news, gold's risk aversion sentiment heated up and prices started to rise for the second time.
Market analysis:
From the 4-hour chart, the market is currently in a slow upward trend in a downward channel, and the price is also repeatedly testing the upward pressure position of 3355. MA5-day and 10-day moving averages turned upward and crossed with the 20-day and 30-day moving averages. At present, the upward momentum is slightly insufficient. In the short term, we should focus on the suppression position of 3355. If we fail to break through this position for a long time, the trend will most likely turn into a downward trend. If no black swan event occurs, today's price will most likely fluctuate around the 3320-3350 range. If there is no black swan event, the price today will most likely fluctuate around the range of 3320-3350.
Operation strategy:
Short near 3355, stop loss 3365, profit range 3340-3330.
Long near 3315 when the price falls back, stop loss 3305, profit range 3340-3345.
#XAUUSD(GOLD)): 29/06/2025 Last Analysis Going Great!Gold has been moving nicely since our last analysis, which we posted. Currently, 750+ pips have been generated, and we expect further price drops. There are still two targets in place, as per our previous analysis. We anticipate a steady decline in the price. We recommend all of you to follow strict risk management. This is not a guaranteed analysis or view, but rather an overview/educational chart analysis.
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#XAUUSD 30MIN 📉 #XAUUSD 30m Sell Setup – Bearish Continuation Ahead
Gold is currently retracing after a strong drop, consolidating within a short-term Supply Zone. We anticipate a temporary bullish push toward the 3345–3350 premium area, where the broader bearish trend is expected to resume.
🔻 Sell Zone: 3345 – 3350 (Supply / OB Zone)
🎯 Targets: 3300 → 3260
❌ Stop Loss: Above 3358
⚠ Note: This is a short-term retracement, not a trend reversal.
We expect selling pressure to return once price taps into the 3350 Order Block, in line with the higher timeframe bearish structure.
#gold #XAUUSD #forexsignals #SmartMoney
Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Outlook — July 1, 2025In the world of financial markets, few assets capture global attention like gold. A timeless store of value, gold continues to act as both a hedge against uncertainty and a battleground for technical traders seeking high-probability setups. As of today, gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $3328, a level that places it just beneath the most recent multi-month high at $3345. The recent surge in price is underpinned by both macroeconomic factors and bullish technical structure. However, as any seasoned trader knows, trends rarely move in straight lines — and gold is now approaching a technically sensitive juncture.
I. Gold’s Structural Landscape on the 4-Hour Chart
The four-hour chart reveals a textbook bullish trend. Beginning with a significant impulse from the $3194 base, gold has climbed steadily, printing higher highs and higher lows. The most recent break of structure (BOS) above $3312 confirmed the continuation of bullish intent, while the market remains firmly above key swing lows — signaling that the bullish regime has not yet been invalidated.
Price action shows clean, impulsive expansions followed by short consolidations, with buyers continuing to absorb supply at every retracement. Despite that strength, gold has now reached a potential exhaustion point, with the price reacting to overhead supply at $3345–3355, forming what could be an early-stage distribution zone.
Key Market Structure Developments:
BOS at $3312: confirms uptrend
No CHoCH (Change of Character) yet — no confirmed bearish reversal
Clean liquidity grab above $3345, followed by rejection — hinting at short-term profit-taking or internal bearish intent
II. The Fibonacci Grid: Retracement and Extension Zones
Applying Fibonacci retracement from the $3194 swing low to the $3345 high offers crucial levels of interest. The golden ratio at 61.8% ($3253) aligns perfectly with prior demand and a 4-hour bullish order block. Similarly, the 38.2% level at $3285 corresponds with a minor liquidity pool and potential reaccumulation base.
Fibonacci Level Price
23.6% $3308
38.2% $3285
50.0% $3269
61.8% $3253
78.6% $3228
On the extension side, should gold resume its rally beyond $3345, projected Fibonacci targets sit at $3372 (127.2%) and $3410 (161.8%), with both acting as measured projections for trend continuation.
III. Supply and Demand: Mapping Institutional Footprints
Institutional activity is best observed through unmitigated supply and demand zones — areas where large orders caused rapid price displacement. Gold currently trades between two such zones:
Demand Zone: $3250–$3260 — a sharp bullish rejection occurred here on the last visit, indicating strong buy-side interest and likely pending buy orders
Supply Zone: $3345–$3355 — where a sell-side liquidity grab recently occurred, followed by a strong rejection candle
These two zones bracket the market and serve as the highest probability areas for future reactions.
IV. The Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Framework
SMC theory revolves around observing the footprints of large market participants — often labeled “smart money.” In gold’s current structure, SMC tools provide a clearer roadmap than standard indicators.
Current Observations:
Break of Structure (BOS): Confirmed at $3312 (bullish continuation)
Change of Character (CHoCH): Absent (bull trend intact)
Buy-Side Liquidity Grab: Above $3345 — trapped breakout buyers likely fuel for reversal
Sell-Side Liquidity Pool: Uncollected beneath $3280 — probable magnet for a liquidity sweep
Fair Value Gap (FVG): Between $3260 and $3280 — price inefficiency offering high-probability reentry for smart money
Bullish Order Block (OB): At $3250–$3260 — final down candle before explosive up move, unmitigated
All these elements point to a high-probability pullback, rather than a full-blown reversal. Until structure is broken with a CHoCH, the base case remains bullish.
V. High-Probability Levels for 4-Hour-Based Opportunities
From this framework, we identify the following key price levels:
The highest-probability reaction is expected at $3250–$3260, where smart money is likely to re-engage if price retraces.
VI. Refinement on the 1-Hour Chart: Intraday Trade Setups
Zooming into the 1-hour chart allows us to fine-tune our execution strategy. Gold is consolidating just below $3330, forming what appears to be an ascending triangle — a common bullish continuation structure — but within the broader context of a possible short-term pullback.
Intraday Trade Idea #1 — High-Conviction Long
Entry: $3260
Stop-Loss: $3245
Take-Profit 1: $3308
Take-Profit 2: $3340
Risk–Reward: ~1:4
Rationale: Aligned with 4H demand, fair value gap, OB, and golden ratio retracement. Structure remains bullish.
Intraday Trade Idea #2 — Speculative Short (Low Conviction)
Entry: $3340–$3350
Stop-Loss: $3362
TP1: $3305
TP2: $3285
Risk–Reward: ~1:2.5
Rationale: Countertrend, only viable if bearish rejection candle forms. Not aligned with dominant 4H structure.
VII. The Golden Setup: Long from Demand + FVG Confluence
Among all technical configurations, the long setup at $3260 emerges as the most compelling. It is supported by:
An unmitigated bullish order block
A clear fair value gap
61.8% Fibonacci retracement
Untouched sell-side liquidity below
Directional alignment with trend
Institutional demand pattern
This setup offers both superior risk-to-reward and a technical foundation that aligns with Smart Money’s modus operandi. It represents a low-risk, high-reward opportunity for traders who wait for price to re-enter the value zone and confirm with bullish order flow (e.g., a bullish engulfing or BOS on 15m).
VIII. Final Thoughts and Tactical Summary
As of July 1, 2025, the gold market reflects strong bullish momentum, albeit entering a corrective phase that should not be mistaken for reversal. While intraday volatility and range compression may tempt countertrend trades, the smartest play remains to wait for a discounted reentry into a zone of value.
Until structure shifts significantly, the dominant trading thesis remains: “Buy the dip into institutional zones”. Patience, not aggression, will separate the retail trader from the professional in today’s complex market structure.
Gold encounters resistance at 3310-3320 and is about to fallAt present, gold has reached the 3300-3320 area as expected. As I mentioned in my previous article, we can consider shorting gold in batches in the 3300-3320 area;
Although gold once rebounded and stood above 3300, we can clearly see that when facing the short-term resistance area of 3310-3320, the bullish energy of gold has converged and began to show signs of stagflation, so the short-term resistance area of 3310-3320 is still valid.
Before gold breaks through 3310-3320, gold bears still have the upper hand. So as long as gold stays below 3310-3320 in the short term, don't be afraid of gold rebounds. Rebounds are opportunities to short gold. So I still tend to short gold at present, and have opened short gold positions according to the trading plan, hoping that gold can retreat to the target area: 3285-3275-3265. Do you think gold will fall as expected?
Gold is rising. Second starting point?Information summary:
1. The US dollar index has experienced the longest consecutive monthly decline since 2017. The weakening of the US dollar has increased the attractiveness of gold denominated in US dollars to non-US dollar holders, becoming an important support factor for gold prices.
2. Trump's continued pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has formed a resonance effect with the weakening of the US dollar, which has jointly pushed up the short-term attractiveness of gold.
Multiple factors are intertwined, and gold has risen slightly again.
Market analysis:
Gold bottomed out and rebounded on Monday, showing a positive closing, and above 3300. After falling sideways for 5 consecutive trading days last week, although it fell for a short time on Monday, it did not continue. In this case, whether a new high can be reached, the watershed is the 3295 line. As long as the European session breaks the high, the long position is near the starting point of 3305 in the early trading session.
At present, the main focus is on the upper resistance around 3325. It opened directly upward on Tuesday, but did not break through too much space, unless it directly broke through 3325-3330; then the next resistance is around 3340. At present, the bulls are still running at a high level. The upward trend line generated after the reversal is more obvious, and the trend line has good effectiveness.
Since the current market is in the first wave of rise, the high point has not been confirmed. Quaid believes that when the high point is clear and the price falls back to the support area, consider entering the market to go long based on the support level. Of course, aggressive trading can choose to buy around 3320 and choose a suitable high point to take profit.
Operation strategy:
Short near the rebound 3340, stop loss 3350, profit range 3310-3300
Long near the fall 3305, stop loss 3290, profit range 3320-3335
Gold fluctuates upward. Is the decline over?On Monday, gold opened at around 3282, and then fell back quickly to around 3247 under pressure; the downward low was blocked, and then rebounded strongly to around 3297; the market currently maintains a small upward trend.
At present, we need to focus on the resistance range of the upward trend.
From the 4-hour chart, the upper short-term resistance is around 3295-3300, followed by the suppression range of 3310-3315. The main direction of short-term operations maintains the rebound short-selling strategy. The support below is around 3255; the overall short-term operation relies on 3260-3300 to maintain the main tone of high-altitude participation unchanged.
Operation strategy:
Short near 3305, stop loss 3320, profit range 3270-3260.
A new week has just begun. I wish you all gain something from the market fluctuations.
Gold is trading sideways. Has it reached a high point?On the first trading day of this week, after hitting 3247 in the early Asian session, it quickly rebounded to around 3295, and then fell back slightly. It is currently maintained at around 3285.
From the hourly chart, the Fibonacci 0.618 position of this trend from 3247 to 3297 is at 3278. The price has always been above 3278, but it has only fallen below this position in a very short time. If the retracement does not break through the 0.618 position, there is a high probability that there will be a high point in the subsequent trend.
Next, we should focus on the area around 3280. If the price always closes above 3280, then today's high point of 3297 will most likely be refreshed. If the upward trend is opened again, it is very likely to touch around 3310. 3310 is also the current 0.618 position. And it is also the top position of this hourly chart range.
Therefore, we should be cautious when shorting gold above 3280, as there is a high probability that it will reach above 3300.
Aggressive trading can rely on entering the market and going long near 3280, and the profit range is between 3300-3310.
For short strategy trading, Quaid recommends that it is safer to short when the price rebounds near 3310.
XAUUSD:Sharing of the Latest Trading StrategyAll the trading signals this week have resulted in profits!!! Check it!!!👉👉👉
Early Session Dynamics:
Gold rebounded in today’s early trading after finding support at the prior low of 3245, aligning with our weekly forecast. The intraday strategy prioritizes a low-level rebound correction, with short positions to be initiated at resistance levels.
Key Technical Levels:
Resistance: 3295–3308
Support: 3250–3240
4-Hour Chart Perspective:
The market remains weak with high volatility. The double-bottom effect at 3245 is unconfirmed, and no bottoming pattern has emerged. Thus, the week’s initial outlook is for a range-bound oscillation between 3308 and 3240:
A rebound opportunity exists as long as 3240 holds.
A break above 3308 could trigger upward momentum.
Intraday Trading Strategy:
Lacking follow-through in the European session, the short-term trend is viewed as range-bound
Sell@3305-3295
TP:3285-3250
buy@3250-3260
TP:3285-3300
XAU/USD Chart Analysis: Price Retreats to Monthly LowXAU/USD Chart Analysis: Price Retreats to Monthly Low
In mid-June 2025, demand for gold surged following reports of exchanged strikes between Israel and Iran, along with US bombings of Iran's nuclear facilities. As a so-called safe-haven asset, gold prices climbed towards $3,430.
However, by the final day of June, the XAU/USD chart shows that gold had retreated to around $3,250, marking the lowest level in a month.
Why Is the Gold Price Falling?
On one hand, this reflects easing tensions in the Middle East, as a ceasefire—albeit fragile—between Israel and Iran remains in place.
On the other hand, the risk of trade wars is also diminishing. According to media reports:
→ President Donald Trump announced last week that the United States had signed a trade agreement with China and hinted that a “very major” deal with India would follow soon.
→ The US is also close to concluding agreements with Mexico and Vietnam, while negotiations with Japan and many other countries are ongoing.
Technical Analysis of the XAU/USD Chart
Looking at the broader picture, it is worth noting that gold prices in 2025 continue to move within a long-term upward channel (shown in blue), with the following key observations:
→ The channel’s median line acted as resistance (indicated by arrow 1);
→ The line dividing the lower half of the channel in half also showed signs of resistance (indicated by arrow 2).
Now, gold is trading near the lower boundary of the channel – a key support level within the multi-month uptrend. Demand may begin to strengthen here, with long lower wicks on candles on the lower timeframes supporting this view.
A rebound from the lower boundary is possible in early July, but how strong might it be? Note that bears have taken control of the $3,345 level (which has now flipped from support to resistance), and there are signs of a triple top pattern (A-B-C) forming near the $3,430 resistance. This raises the risk of a bearish breakout from the ascending channel.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Non-agricultural data is coming. Will it affect the market trendBecause there will be non-agricultural data next week, Quaid thinks that the market will not be in a hurry to perform at the beginning of the week. And Friday is the US Independence Day, and the market will be closed in advance; maybe only Wednesday and Thursday are really needed.
This week, gold closed below 3300, and the daily line was also broken, and gold officially entered a bearish trend.
First look at the monthly line chart
Because next Monday is the last day of June, the monthly line will start to close, so you can still pay attention to the support of the monthly line. The MA5 moving average below the monthly line is currently around 3170. Moreover, with the support of non-agricultural data next week, the possibility of touching around 3170 is not ruled out.
Secondly, from the weekly line chart
The weekly line is basically the same as the monthly line. The MA20 moving average below is also around 3170. So next week, I think we should focus on around 3170. The monthly line and the weekly line resonate, so the probability of touching this position is very high.
Finally, let's look at the daily chart. The daily chart shows a downward trend and the short-term support has been broken. The current support is around 3250. I think there is a high probability of a small sideways consolidation at the beginning of the week. If the market conditions are eager to change, it may rebound slightly and then continue to decline. If it falls below 3250, it will continue to fall towards 3200. If this level is broken, it may hit the low point of 3170-3175.
"Stealing Gold Profits: XAU/USD Long Setup (Risk-Reward Heist)"🔥 GOLD HEIST ALERT: XAU/USD Breakout Robbery Plan (Long Setup) 🔥
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📈 ENTRY: THE HEIST BEGINS!
Wait for Resistance Breakout (3400.00) → Then strike!
Buy Stop Orders: Place above Moving Average.
Buy Limit Orders: Use 15M/30M pullbacks (swing lows/highs).
Pro Tip: Set a chart ALERT to catch the breakout live!
🛑 STOP LOSS: DON’T GET CAUGHT!
For Buy Stop Orders: Never set SL before breakout!
Thief’s SL Spot: Recent swing low (4H timeframe).
Adjust SL based on your risk, lot size, and order count.
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🏴☠️ TARGET: 3480.00
Scalpers: Long-only! Use trailing SL to lock profits.
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📊 MARKET CONTEXT:
XAU/USD is neutral but primed for bullish moves 🐂. Watch:
Fundamentals (COT Reports, GeoPolitics, News).
Intermarket Trends & Sentiment.
Positioning & Future Targets (Check our bio0 for analysis linkss!).
⚠️ TRADING ALERTS:
News Releases = High Volatility!
Avoid new trades during major news.
Use Trailing SL to protect open positions.
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Gold’s Big Heist—Will You Join the Loot or Get Robbed?🔥 GOLD HEIST ALERT: XAU/USD Breakout Robbery Plan (Swing & Scalp Strategy) 🔥
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Ready to loot the gold market? 🏆💰 Based on Thief Trading Style analysis (technical + fundamental), here’s how we execute the heist on XAU/USD—escape with profits before the bears trap us!
📈 ENTRY: The Heist Begins!
"Break the Wall!" Wait for RESISTANCE (3370.00) to crack, then strike!
2 Ways to Rob:
✅ Buy Stop above Moving Average (breakout confirmation)
✅ Buy Limit near pullback zones (15m/30m recent swing lows)
Pro Tip: Set a chart alert 🚨—don’t miss the breakout!
🛑 STOP LOSS: Protect Your Loot!
"Yo, listen! If you’re buying after breakout, DO NOT set SL until price confirms!
Thief’s SL Rule: Place at recent swing low (4H timeframe)—adjust based on your risk & lot size.
Rebels, beware! 🔥 Your risk, your rules… but don’t cry if the market robs you back!
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Main Take Profit: 3480.00 (or exit early if the market turns shady!)
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Avoid new trades during high-impact news.
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Gold has been falling continuously. Will it continue next week?Market review:
The conflict between Israel and Iran intensified, and gold surged in the early stage, and then continued to fluctuate downward. Affected by the situation in the Middle East and weak data from the United States, it fell severely in three trading days, and most of the other time periods were in the stage of repeated washing.
The first round of decline began at the high point of 3452. Affected by the situation in the Middle East, the price rose rapidly, but the rapid rise led to insufficient upward momentum, and the departure of buyers led to continuous declines in a single trading day. The second round of decline was affected by the easing of the conflict between Iran and Israel, and the US dollar, crude oil, and gold all plunged sharply; the third round of decline was Powell's wait-and-see attitude towards the interest rate cut policy, and some US data were bearish for gold, leading to a new round of decline.
Market outlook for next week:
The breaking of the key support bands of 3303 and 3295 means that the downward adjustment has not ended, but after touching the support near 3250, there was a clear bottoming out and recovery. It means that there is strong support below, and the focus of next week's opening is the emergence of price rebound. There were rebounds to varying degrees after the previous two rounds of decline, so this round of decline still needs to be paid attention to. The strategy mainly revolves around shorting on price rebound, with a focus on the upward suppression range of 3285-3310.
If the rebound is small, then at the beginning of next week, it is likely to maintain a small fluctuation in the range of 3270-3285.
The data is negative. Will the price rebound from the bottom?Gold prices have continued to fall since the high near 3450. This trading day started the downward mode near 3328, and the European session continued to fall, breaking a new low. The negative PCE data also continued the downward mode. So far, it has rebounded after hitting the lowest level near 3255. However, the rebound is small, and the upper pressure is still very strong.
From the 4-hour chart, short-term resistance focuses on the vicinity of 3295-3300, followed by important pressure near 3315. The short-term support below focuses on the vicinity of 3265-3270. The overall strategy of shorting at high positions remains unchanged based on this range.
Operation strategy:
Short at the price rebound near 3295, short covering at the high point of 3315, stop loss 3325, profit range 3370-3360.
At present, the price fluctuates greatly. If you want to try scalping transactions, you can trade with a light position and float up and down 5 points to stop loss or profit in time.
This is the last trading day of this week. I hope you all will gain something and have a happy weekend with your family.
Gold Analysis and Trading Outlook – June 27Good morning, everyone!
Yesterday, gold encountered resistance in the 3348–3352 zone and fell back to around 3310 before rebounding toward the 3336 resistance area. Today’s session opened with renewed weakness, and so far, the overall price action has closely followed our expectations. Whether it was selling near resistance, buying after the dip, or shorting the rebound, each opportunity yielded solid profits.
Some traders have asked about my strategy’s win rate. Those who’ve followed consistently already know—the overall win rate has remained above 80%, with very few instances of error. Even in the rare case of a misjudgment, I apply specific recovery strategies to minimize risk and avoid large losses. That’s the core reason why I’m confident I can help many traders.
Technically, the daily chart still shows a bearish trend, and prices are now approaching the key 3300 support zone. While the current geopolitical uncertainty adds complexity, it doesn't prevent us from executing flexible intraday trades. In fact, range-bound markets can still be highly profitable with a disciplined approach.
Key intraday levels to watch:
Dynamic support: 3318–3313
Major support: 3300–3287
Resistance levels: 3336, 3348–3352, and 3370
Today’s trades can continue to focus on these levels, using a sell-high, buy-low strategy with flexibility.
Gold is weak. Can it continue?Gold is still fluctuating and falling slightly today. Gold is weak, so gold is likely to be short-term. If the price rebounds, it will be a short opportunity.
We need to pay attention to the release of US PCE data later.
From the 1-hour chart
the moving average continues to cross the short arrangement and diverge downward. After gold fell below the early support near 3340, it began to move downward weakly. The current upward pressure is around 3295-3310.
From the daily chart, the price is below the MA20 cycle and the 50 cycle, but remains above the 100 cycle. The technical indicators turned higher, but the momentum indicator is at a neutral level, and the RSI index is around 42.7, which does not point to an upward trend.
Since the upcoming data may have some impact on the price, the price may have a short-term high opportunity. Steady trading is still waiting for the price to rise and then short. Of course, if your trading strategy is more aggressive, you can use a long strategy before the price rises.
Operation suggestions:
Radical: Buy near 3280, stop loss at 3265, profit range 3305-3310.
Conservative: Wait for the price to rise and then bear pressure, sell near 3310, stop loss at 3320, profit range 3290-3285.
XAU/USD GOLD 4H + 1H PREMIUM TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – JUNE 27, 20254-HOUR TIMEFRAME – HIGHER TIMEFRAME BIAS
Gold continues to trade near its all-time highs, consolidating just below a recent swing high of $3,315. Despite minor pullbacks, the macro trend remains bullish, with bullish structure still intact. Recent price action shows shallow retracements and strong rejections of key fib levels, a typical sign of underlying smart money accumulation.
Price Action & Market Structure
Gold recently printed a Break of Structure (BOS) at $3,290, followed by a retest of the broken level.
We observed a Change of Character (CHoCH) near $3,300, quickly invalidated by bullish strength – further confirming accumulation behavior.
Market remains in bullish alignment unless $3,250 is broken decisively.
Key Support & Resistance Zones
Resistance $3,315–$3,320
Demand $3,275–$3,282
Support $3,250
Targets $3,340 / $3,355
Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
Liquidity Grab beneath $3,275 likely triggered retail stop hunts
4H Bullish Order Block between $3,275–$3,282 remains unmitigated
Imbalance Zone: $3,283–$3,289 – price may wick into this before launch
Sell-side liquidity taken below $3,275 → bullish reaction
Buy-side liquidity sits above $3,315 → likely short-term magnet
ZOOMING INTO 1-HOUR CHART – INTRADAY SETUPS
The 1-hour chart aligns with the bullish higher-timeframe bias, offering two potential premium-level setups:
Setup #1: Bullish Rejection from 4H OB
Entry Zone: $3,275–$3,282
This setup targets a liquidity sweep beneath $3,275 followed by bullish mitigation of a clean order block and imbalance zone. Confluence across fibs, OB, and structure support increases probability.
Setup #2: Breakout Retest Play
Trigger: Clean breakout and retest of $3,315
Entry: On successful retest (bullish confirmation candle)
Ideal if momentum pushes through local resistance, clearing buy-side liquidity. Reclaim of structure suggests smart money continuation.
Bearish Contingency (Low Probability for Now)
If price breaks below $3,250 and confirms below structure:
Look to short on retests into $3,275
Target next demand around $3,235
Until that happens, bullish bias remains dominant.
Gold remains one of the most structured and responsive instruments to smart money technicals right now. A well-planned entry around demand, imbalance, or breakout levels provides excellent RRR potential if structure holds.
Gold breaks down. It may reach a low point.From the current market daily chart
The absolute support of gold is around 3280. Gold is basically in the process of maintaining this daily trend support line. Therefore, I personally think that around 3280 is a long-short dividing line for gold. If gold falls below 3280 on the daily line, it is very likely that the decline will just begin. On the contrary, be careful. If 3280 does not fall below, there is still a possibility of rebounding.
In the 4-hour chart, from the high point of 3450 to now, the 0.382 position is just around yesterday's high point of 3350. The 0.618 position is at 3325, and the final 100% position is around 3280. 3280 also coincides with the daily chart.
Therefore, gold must at least test around 3280 today, and it is not ruled out that there will be lower positions.
Seize the rebound opportunity and prepare to short goldGold continued to rebound as expected and has now extended to above 3340. In the short term, it tends to fluctuate and rise. In the previous trading idea overnight, I emphasized that everyone should not take the risk of shorting gold near 3330. Now it seems that this reminder is completely necessary. Although gold continues to rebound, the overall performance of the bulls is still not strong, and the upper side is still under pressure in the 3350-3360-3370 area. So I still advocate that you can consider shorting gold in the 3350-3360 area after the rebound.
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