Gold is expected to regain bullish momentum and continue to 3360Yesterday, gold rebounded from 3296 and was able to reach around 3345. Although the process was rather painful, we have to admit that gold bulls still have the energy to wrestle with bears, and the gold market is not one-sidedly dominated by bears. As gold gradually tested and confirmed the effectiveness of support during the retracement process and then rebounded effectively, the short-term structure of gold gradually changed and began to favor bulls.
After gold hit bottom and rebounded yesterday, we can clearly see from the short-term structure that gold has successfully constructed a head and shoulders bottom structure in the three areas of 3295-3244-3296 in the short term, thus playing an absolute supporting role in the structure; and in the process of repeated testing of gold, there are signs of constructing a head and shoulders bottom structure in the three areas of 3310-3296-3325 locally again. Under the effect of the structural support resonance of the head and shoulders bottom, gold may not go below 3320 again, and may even regain the bullish trend and continue to the 3345-3355 area.
So I think there is a lot of profit potential in going long on gold. We can go long on gold with the 3330-3320 area as support and look towards the target area: 3340-3350-3360
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Below 3360, short sellers still have profit potential!Although gold has steadily rebounded to around 3345, compared with yesterday's gold falling below 3330 again, the rebound in the short term is not strong; overall, gold is still in a weak and volatile pattern, with pressure from the upper side at 3350-3360; and there is technical buying support in the lower 3300-3290 area. It is under the influence of the resistance area and the support area that gold lacks continuity.
So before gold breaks through effectively, I think both the long and short sides of gold have profit potential, so for the current short-term trading, we can temporarily maintain the high-sell-low-dregs trading within the range.
1. Consider shorting gold in batches with 3345-3365 as resistance, TP: 3330-3320-3310;
2. Consider going long gold in batches with 3325-3305 as support, TP: 3345-3355-3365
The short position is losing money. What should we do?Gold hit the intraday low of around 3296 and then began to rebound. We can see that the rebound of gold is not strong, but it is relatively sustained, so gold has rebounded to around 3335. To be honest, I did short gold according to my plan and still hold a short position.
Although gold has rebounded to around 3330, I don’t think my short gold trade has failed. As I said in the previous point of view, gold is facing technical suppression of the head and shoulders in the short term, which will suppress the rebound limit within the 3335-3340 area. So before gold stabilizes at 3340, I think the gold shorts still have the upper hand. So as long as gold stays below 3340, I think the gold rebound is a good opportunity to short gold.
At present, gold is facing the resistance area of 3335-3340 and begins to show signs of stagflation. After consuming a certain amount of bullish momentum, the gold shorts may counterattack strongly again and stimulate gold to fall rapidly. Therefore, before gold breaks upward through the 3335-3345 area, we can still consider shorting gold, or continue to hold a short position in gold!
The bears will take the 3290-3280 area stronglyGold started to fall from 3342 during the day and fell below 3300 at one point. Gold is in an obvious short position, and during the London market, gold continued its downward momentum without any decent rebound. Gold is in an extremely weak state. In the absence of a rebound in the London market, I think New York is very likely to continue to fall.
According to the current structure, gold is facing technical suppression of the head and shoulders in the short term, which greatly limits the rebound space of gold and suppresses the rebound limit within 3335. As the center of gravity of gold moves down, the resistance in the short term moves down to the 3315-3325 area. After breaking through 3330, the downward space has been opened up to a certain extent. So don’t be fooled by the false bullish candle that appear near 3330. Gold will inevitably continue to fall to the 3290-3280 area.
The 3290-3280 area is bound to be won, so shorting gold is still the first choice for short-term trading. You can consider shorting gold with the 3315-3325-3335 area as resistance, and look to the target area: 3295-3285-3275.
Gold shorts may continue to 3280 or even 3255Gold started to fall from around 3342 in the Asian session, and currently hit a low of around 3305. This is completely consistent with my prediction: "Before gold stabilizes at 3340, it is still in a short trend. Gold shorts may counterattack at any time and look at the target area in turn: 3315-3305." Currently, gold has reached the target area as expected.
There is no doubt that gold is still in an obvious short arrangement at present, and gold shorts may have just begun. For the next short-term trading, we still focus on shorting gold, so what we are most concerned about now is where gold can rebound and where is the most suitable short entry? ! From the current structure of gold, gold is under pressure from the short-term head and shoulders technical structure. This resistance structure compresses the rebound limit in the short term to the 3335-3340 area; and the short-term resistance area is located in the 3320-3330 area; once gold is under pressure and falls again, I think it is very likely that gold will fall to the 3295-3285 area again, and may even extend to the 3365-3355 area.
Therefore, I think shorting gold is still the first choice for short-term trading; you can consider shorting gold in the 3320-3340 area, looking at the target area of 3290-3280-3270
Continue to maintain the rhythm of short tradingUnder the influence of NFP, gold fell sharply as expected. What I had suggested before was proven correct by the market again. "Gold rose in advance to reserve room for the NFP market to fall." After NFP, gold fell to around 3311 and the decline narrowed. Therefore, we accurately seized the opportunity to go long on gold near 3312 and set TP: 3330. Obviously, gold successfully hit TP during the rebound and made an easy profit of 180 pips.
From the current gold structure, gold encountered resistance and retreated twice near 3365, and built a double top structure in the short-term structure. In order to eliminate the suppression of the double top structure, gold still needs to continue to fall after the rebound. After the cliff-like decline of gold, the short-term resistance is in the 3340-3345 area, and the short-term support below is in the 3320-3310 area.
So I think that gold can still continue to short gold after the rebound, and I have already shorted gold around 3336 with the 3340-3345 area as resistance. Now we just need to wait patiently for gold to hit TP. Let us wait and see!
Gold may need to retreat to around 3300 againYesterday, the gold rebound stopped at around 3358, and then began to retreat. After that, it even failed to stand above 3350 during the rebound process, which to a certain extent hit the confidence of the bulls;
At present, gold has retreated to the area near 3330 again. Although gold has fallen slowly, the center of gravity of gold is still shifting downward in the short term, and the trading volume of gold is gradually increasing when it is falling, so I think the short position may not be over, and the 3330 area may be broken at any time; and the support area that really deserves our attention is first the 3320-3315 area, followed by the 3300-3295 area;
From the current gold structure, I think gold may still test the area near 3300 again before rising. Only after gold retreats to the area near 3300, it is possible to build an A-B-C head and shoulders bottom structure at the technical level (as shown in the figure), which can also help gold build a complete and effective rising structure, so gold has the need to retreat to the area near 3300 to build a right shoulder structure.
Therefore, I think shorting gold is still the first choice for short-term trading at present; you can consider shorting gold in the 3335-3355 area, looking at the target area of 3320-3310-3300.
Gold may collapse again, don't get buried in it!In the past two trading days, gold began to rebound from a low of around 3245, and has now rebounded to around 3358, with a rebound of up to $113. Moreover, there has been no significant retracement during this rebound, indicating that gold has little intention to fall, and may even continue to rise.
But for me, gold rebounded from 3245. Even if a double bottom structure with 3275 as the secondary low was constructed on the technical level, it should not be enough for gold to rebound more than $113 in just two days as it fell below many supports in the early stage and bullish confidence suffered a serious blow. Moreover, it happened before the uncertain news of the NFP market.
So I have to consider that the market did it deliberately, and its primary purpose was to kill a large number of short chips in the market and lure more attracted long chips; secondly, the sharp rise before the NFP market may be to reserve room for the NFP market to fall in advance; in addition, I have to consider that the US dollar has fallen to a three-year low. If it continues to fall, there may be a global crisis of confidence in the US dollar, and the oversold rebound demand for the US dollar will also suppress gold.
Therefore, I still will not advocate chasing the rise of gold for the time being; on the contrary, I will actively seek opportunities to short gold in the 3350-3370 area; and once gold turns to a downward trend again, it may at least test the 3325-3315-3305 area downward in the short term.
Short gold, it may retreat again after reaching 3340-3350Although the rebound in gold has exceeded my expectations to a certain extent, it is obviously not a good time to chase the rise in gold. The gold rebound mainly benefits from Trump's repeated requests for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which has led to the continued weakness of the US dollar. In fact, we can clearly see that the gold rebound is not supported by trading volume, and the rebound without volume may face the risk of collapse again at any time. So I don't advocate chasing long gold at present.
Currently, gold has rebounded to around 3339, almost recovering most of the losses in the previous downward wave (the starting point of the previous wave was 3350), but gold is still under pressure in the 3340-3350-3355 area. In the absence of volume support, gold may fall again after touching this resistance area.
Therefore, shorting gold is still the first choice for short-term trading at present; at least make sure not to chase high!
You can consider shorting gold with the 3340-3350-3355 area as resistance, and look at the target: 3320-3310-3300
Short gold, it will fall again when encountering resistanceIn the short term, gold retreated to around 3274 and then rebounded again, and it is only one step away from 3300. Will gold regain its bullish trend again?
I think it is difficult for gold to break through in the short term. Although gold retreated to around 3274 and successfully built a double bottom structure with the second low point and the low point of 3245, it only increased the rebound space; it is not enough for gold to regain its bullish trend. Since gold fell and broke through, the confidence of bulls has been hit hard. The previous support at the technical level has formed a strong resistance area after the top and bottom conversion, and to a certain extent helped the short force. In the short term, gold faces resistance in the 3310-3320 area. Before gold breaks through this area, the short energy still has the upper hand.
Therefore, shorting gold is still the first choice for short-term trading.
It is appropriate to consider shorting gold in batches in the 3300-3320 area, and look at the target: 3385-3375-3365
Seize the rebound opportunity and prepare to short goldGold continued to rebound as expected and has now extended to above 3340. In the short term, it tends to fluctuate and rise. In the previous trading idea overnight, I emphasized that everyone should not take the risk of shorting gold near 3330. Now it seems that this reminder is completely necessary. Although gold continues to rebound, the overall performance of the bulls is still not strong, and the upper side is still under pressure in the 3350-3360-3370 area. So I still advocate that you can consider shorting gold in the 3350-3360 area after the rebound.
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Gold may continue to rebound to 3350-3360If gold can stand above 3330 today, it will stimulate long trading behavior to a certain extent, especially the self-rescue behavior of trapped longs. Gold may continue to rebound and is expected to reach the 3345-3355 area. So there is no need to risk shorting gold near 3330 for the time being; although gold may continue to rebound, it is still under pressure in the 3350-3360-3370 area; and gold is still weak overall, so we can consider shorting gold in the 3350-3360 area and look at the target area of 3325-3315.
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Short gold after reboundGold rebounded after touching 3312, and has now rebounded to 3330, but the rebound strength is far less than the decline strength, so the overall performance of gold is still weak. Because gold fell sharply yesterday, the market bullish confidence suffered a heavy blow, and there are many resistances above after gold fell and broke, and it is under pressure at 3340-3350 in the short term, and there is a technical gap above that suppresses the 3360-3370 area.
Therefore, before gold stabilizes in the 3360-3370 area, the short-selling force still has the upper hand, so we still focus on shorting gold in trading. We can consider shorting gold with the 3340-3350 area as resistance, and look at the target area of 3320-3310.
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Start going long on goldAlthough gold is under pressure and weak at present, gold still rebounded near 3295 under the influence of yesterday's major negative news, proving that there is still a large amount of buying funds below, limiting the retracement space of gold; and from 3295 to 3335, there is still a rebound space of $40, proving that gold is not extremely weak. Moreover, there is a gap left above, and there is a technical need to rebound to fill the gap;
In addition, yesterday gold fell sharply due to news, and there should be many longs trapped in the market. If gold is relatively stable, there may be self-rescue behavior of the trapped longs, so gold longs still have the opportunity to rebound to 3340-3350. At present, the main focus is on the short-term support area of 3315-3305, and we can moderately consider going long on gold in this area.
Stick to shorting gold and holding itAlthough gold has risen sharply to around 3375 in the short term due to the dovish remarks of Fed officials, it has not made an effective breakthrough. Therefore, gold has not reversed its trend due to the short-term rebound. Gold is still in an obvious short trend. In the short term, gold is obviously under pressure in the 3365-3375 area. If gold fails to break through this resistance area, then after gold consumes a certain amount of long energy, gold shorts will counterattack again and are expected to retreat to the 3350-3340 area again.
In the case that good news cannot support the continued rebound of gold, the market's bullish confidence will be hit again, and the short confidence will be further strengthened, stimulating gold to accelerate its decline, and it is even expected to fall below the 3350-3340 area. Therefore, in short-term trading, I still advocate shorting gold, and I am currently holding a short position in gold, and I look forward to the accelerated decline of gold as expected!
Perhaps 3300 or even 3280 is foreseeable!Obviously, gold is currently fluctuating downward, and in the short term, there is a certain support in the 3340-3330 area, so gold will not fall below this support area in one fell swoop, and it is still possible to rebound to the 3360-3370 area with the support of this area. If gold encounters resistance and retreats again after touching the 3360-3370 area, if there is no major good news, gold is likely to fall below the 3340-3330 area. After gold falls below this support area, the 3300 and 3280 areas are foreseeable.
So according to the above logic, I still hold a long position executed near 3345, and I am very much looking forward to gold reaching the 3360-3365 area;
If gold continues to rebound to the 3365-3375 area, I will try to short gold again; and look forward to the accelerated downward movement of gold!
The above is a preview of the performance of gold. There may be some deviations in the specific execution of transactions, because in short-term transactions, it is necessary to judge the true breakthrough and false breakthrough in advance, but I will still roughly follow the above preview process to execute the transaction! I also hope that this can provide some reference for everyone!
Continue to short gold after the reboundGold has currently hit a low of around 3347, and rebounded after slightly breaking through 3350. It has now rebounded to around 3370. Will gold continue to rebound and hit 3400 again?
I think it is unlikely that gold will continue to rebound and hit 3400 in the short term. From a fundamental perspective, many of the news leaked out about the situation in the Middle East are untrue, and the conflict has not escalated further, so gold has not reacted much to this; and as market expectations for interest rate cuts decrease, the impact of news supporting gold's upward trend is gradually weakening;
From the current structure, since gold fell below 3370, bears have completely taken the upper hand. Although gold has rebounded from around 3347, it is only a short-term technical repair and oversold rebound from a structural perspective, and it cannot be said that it is a restart of bulls. So I think gold still has the risk of a second decline after the rebound, and once gold falls again, it may trigger a large number of profit-taking orders and a large number of short-sellers to enter the market.
As the center of gravity of gold shifts downward, the short-term resistance area moves down to 3380-3390; the current support area below is near 3350, followed by 3335. So for short-term trading, I still prefer gold short trading, and we can continue to short gold with this short-term resistance area.
Stick to shorting goldGold is currently fluctuating in a narrow range of 3380-3385, and the trend is relatively slow. We also need more patience. In comparison, I think the current short-selling force has a slight upper hand, because gold has shown signs of accelerating decline after a difficult rebound many times, and has fallen below 3380 many times. According to the current gold structure, gold does not have sufficient room for decline, and it is still possible to continue to fall to the 3365-3355 area.
It is expected that gold will not fluctuate too much before the Fed's interest rate decision and Powell's monetary policy press conference. For this interest rate decision, I think the possibility of a rate cut is not great, and the current interest rate may still remain unchanged. The reduction in the expectation of a rate cut may stimulate a wave of gold declines in the short term. So in the short term, I still prefer a short trade in gold. Obviously, gold is currently under pressure in the 3395-3405 area, so we can still try to short gold in this area.
Gold is weak, and there may be a low point yet to come!According to the current structure, gold is obviously in a weak position. Gold has failed to break through the high point of the previous wave after multiple rebounds during the day. 3400 has become a new round of pressure area; and gold has just accelerated its decline and fell below 3370. For the current trend, falling below 3370 will weaken the bullish sentiment to a certain extent and indicate that there is further room for decline, so I think gold should have a low point, and the low point we should first pay attention to is in the range of 3365-3355.
So in terms of short-term trading,
First, we can try to short gold with the short-term resistance area of 3395-3405;
But if gold first retreats to the support area of 3365-3355, we can first choose to go long on gold.
Continue to try to short gold,It's expected to touch 3355-3345 Gold has broken through 3380 twice, but recovered quickly, indicating that the bulls still have some defensive power. At present, gold has touched 3400 again; it can be seen that the bulls' potential defense is still good, but it is not enough to support the continued rebound of gold in the short term. Obviously, gold is still under pressure in the 3410-3420 area in the short term. If gold cannot break through this resistance area in the short term, gold may continue to maintain a volatile state and continue to seek strong support downward. Only after gold breaks through the 3410-3420 area, it is expected to continue to rise and touch the area near 3450 again.
When gold tested the support near 3380 several times during the day and tried to break through this area, after gold failed to break through the 3410-3420 area in the short term, I think gold will be more likely to choose a downward direction, or even continue to test the 3355-3345 area. Therefore, for short-term trading, before breaking through the 3410-3420 area, we should not chase gold too much, and we can try to short gold in this area appropriately.
Gold bulls may restart at any time, buy gold!Although compared with the performance of gold during the day, gold only touched 3452 and then began to retreat, and even failed to approach the previous high of 3500, gold is not strong; but based on the current fundamentals and technical structure, gold is currently in a very strong bullish structure; so I think the gold retracement is not a sign of gold weakness, but to increase liquidity, so that gold can rise better and prepare in advance for breaking through 3500! Gold bulls are ready to restart at any time after the retracement!
So for short-term trading, I don’t think the gold retracement is a reason for weakness, nor is it a certificate for chasing short gold; on the contrary, I think the gold retracement is a good time to buy on dips; first of all, the support area we have to pay attention to is the 3410-3400 area, and the second must pay attention to the 3390-3380 area support.
So in the next transaction, we might as well use these two support areas as defense and start to go long on gold in batches!
Gold will inevitably fall after risingGold has risen sharply due to the violent geopolitical conflicts and the surge in risk aversion. It once reached around 3445, but in the process of falling back, it only touched 3408 and rebounded again, stabilizing above 3400. It is obvious that due to the changes in fundamentals, the sentiment of gold bulls is high; although the upward momentum of gold near 3440 has weakened, there is no clear signal of peaking yet!
For short-term trading, it is relatively difficult to participate at present. To be honest, I naturally don’t want to chase gold at a high level; but there are no more signals to support me to short gold for the time being. However, with the rebound of gold, the current short-term support below is in the 3425-3415 area, followed by the psychological support of the 3400 integer mark; and the short-term resistance above is in the 3455-3465 area, followed by the area near 3480.
Compared with the profit and loss ratio, I prefer shorting gold for short-term trading, because gold has performed relatively strongly in the London market. Logically, gold will have the inertia to rise in the New York market, so I think gold may rise and then fall in the New York market, so my current plan is to try shorting gold starting in the 3455-3465 area.
Because the changes in gold's fundamentals are more extreme and complex, you must set up SL when participating in transactions.
GOLD (XAU/USD) 4H CHART – BULLISH BREAKOUT TRADE SETUP🔵 Trendline Breakout 📈
📏 Price broke above a descending trendline, signaling a potential bullish reversal.
🔼 This breakout is often seen as a buy signal by traders.
🧱 Resistance Area 🛑
🔹 Price has entered and broken through a horizontal resistance zone.
🔄 This zone may now flip into support, adding confidence to the long setup.
🟧 Demand Zone 📦
📍 Marked between 3,267 – 3,298.
🛡️ Strong buying interest historically observed in this area.
📉 EMA (70) at 3,298.065 acts as dynamic support.
🟦 Entry Point 🚪
🎯 Entry Level: 3,322.930
🔄 Enter after retest confirmation or bullish candle above resistance.
🔴 Stop Loss ⛔
⚠️ SL Level: 3,267.993
💣 Below the demand zone and EMA — protecting against false breakouts.
🟩 Target Point 🎯
🚀 TP Level: 3,490.000
📌 Prior high zone — strong historical resistance expected here.
💰 Trade Setup Summary
✅ Buy Above: 3,322.930
❌ Stop Loss: 3,267.993
🎯 Target: 3,490.000
📊 Risk/Reward Ratio: Favorable (approx. 1:3)
🔎 Technical Confidence Levels
🔵 EMA Support ✅
🔵 Trendline Breakout ✅
🔵 Resistance Flip ✅
🔴 False Breakout Risk