XAUUSD:Weak upward momentum,1820 short
After each wave of market activity, successful traders reap joy, profits, and experience, while unsuccessful traders face sadness, losses, and lessons. The same market, the same time, but different results. Which type are you? If the direction is right, the road ahead is not daunting. Witness your strength with time, win the future with your abilities, let trust become profit, and dispel doubts with profits.
Powell said that the terminal value of interest rates may be higher than expected, and the central bank is prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes if necessary. Powell emphasized the theme of "slowing inflation" in a speech a month ago, changing the aggressive tone following the release of U.S. employment data. The increase in hawkish sentiment has pushed the U.S. two-year Treasury yield to its highest level since 2007, which may put pressure on precious metal prices.
The probability of the Fed raising rates by 50 basis points at the March rate decision has increased. Currently, the implied terminal rate for the federal funds rate futures is 5.63% (expected to be reached in September). This is up from 5.48% before Powell's testimony and only 5% at the end of January. The terminal rate is expected to be nearly 100 basis points higher than the current Fed policy rate of 4.5%-4.75%.
The focus of the market is currently on U.S. employment data, which will be released this Friday, and U.S. CPI data next week. Non-farm payroll employment in February is expected to increase by 224,000, slowing down from the 443,000 in January, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain near its 50-year low of around 3.4%. The CPI in February is expected to slow down to 6.0% from 6.4% in January, but the core CPI may still stabilize at 0.4% monthly. Better-than-expected U.S. economic data may continue to put pressure on precious metals.
During the super data week, technical analysis often appears to be ineffective because the market is always driven by the main funds. Today's operation strategy is mainly short on rebounds, and the bullish trend has been seriously affected. Short-term bulls are weak, and it is recommended to follow the trend.
Personal operational advice: short near 1820, with a focus on targets of 1810-1804. I will continue to monitor the trend of XAUUSD, and update the strategy as needed in a timely manner. Please stay tuned.
