GOLD (XAUUSD): Your Trading Plan Ahead of FED
Ahead of FED Powell Speech today, Gold finally stopped falling.
For now, a key daily support that the price tested earlier holds.
To catch a pullback trade from that, pay attention to an inverted
cup & handle pattern on an hourly time frame.
Wait for a bullish breakout of its neckline - an hourly candle close above
that will give you a strong bullish signal.
A pullback will be excepted at least to 2580 level then.
Alternatively, a daily candle close below the underlined daily support
will be a strong bearish signal.
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XAUUSD: Bottom of the Channel Up, RSI almost oversold. Buy.Gold turned bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 37.369, MACD = 1.240, ADX = 48.026) as is closed yesterday below the 1D MA50 for the first time in more than 4 months (July 2nd). The downtrend is the bearish wave of the May 20th Channel Up and is so far the strongest of the pattern. Technically Gold is a buy for as long as the 1D MA100 holds. Also the 1D RSI is the closest it's been to the 30.000 oversold level since October 6th 2023. Naturally that makes it a strong buy opportunity. Our target is the 0.618 Fibonacci extension (TP = 2,705).
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XAUUSD Strategic Buy at Support ZoneI am taking this buy entry based on several technical factors. Firstly, the RSI is at 24.22, indicating a significant oversold condition. This suggests that the price might be ready for an upward correction, as oversold levels often precede a rebound. Additionally, the price is near an important support area around $2,611, a level that has shown previous market reactions.
Although the recent trend has been bearish, I believe this entry has the potential to capitalize on a short-term pullback. I have set the entry price at $2,611.07, with a stop loss at $2,570.38 to limit potential losses if the price continues to decline. My take profit is positioned at $2,644.33, aiming for a reasonable target that captures a potential rebound. My plan is to maintain strict risk management and closely monitor price action at this level to confirm if the buy decision is validated by a favorable reaction.
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Gold Price Outlook: Key Insights for Next Weeks Trading DecisionGold prices dropped to a three-week low, as investors dumped the Gold commodity for the U.S. dollar following Donald Trump's presidential victory. With expectations of a stronger dollar and potential inflation-driving tariffs under Trump, the Federal Reserve may rethink its easing cycle. This video breaks down key market moves and sentiment shifts post-election, as traders reassess their ‘Trump trade’ strategies amid tariff uncertainty.
Looking ahead, next week's U.S. economic data releases—including inflation and retail sales—along with comments from Federal Reserve officials, are set to shape Gold’s direction. Join us to analyze the behavioural trends impacting XAU/USD and prepare for new trading opportunities in the week ahead.
#GoldMarket #XAUUSD #ForexTrading #TrumpEffect #USDollar #GoldAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketOutlook
Disclaimer Notice:
Trading in the foreign exchange market and other instruments carries a high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content provided here is for educational purposes only. Evaluate your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
XAUUSD: Holding Short Positions Over the WeekendAfter rising to around 2704, gold prices have retraced, and the resistance remains strong, causing the price to fluctuate near the support level. Market sentiment remains cautious, making it difficult to form a clear trend in the short term. If you prefer not to hold positions over the weekend, it's recommended to close your positions before the market closes.
If you choose to hold positions over the weekend, I would personally suggest considering holding short positions before the market closes. Given the current market weakness, gold prices may face further downward pressure.
For those with less favorable account conditions, it's advisable to set stop-loss orders (SL) to effectively manage risk. Unpredictable news or events over the weekend can cause unexpected volatility, and having a stop-loss in place will help prevent significant losses from sudden market movements.
XAU/USD 07 October 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
As highlighted in my analysis dated 31 October 2024: We should remain aware that the daily timeframe has been showing early signs of a potential bearish pullback phase initiation, suggesting that price could print a bearish iBOS despite H4 internal structure being bullish.
This printed as anticipated, with price printing a bearish iBOS that also confirmed the swing structure.
Price is now trading within an established swing range.
Intraday Expectation: Price is expected to print a bullish CHoCH, indicating the start of a bullish pullback phase.
Note: Due to the Fed’s softer stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, we should remain mindful that volatility in Gold is likely to persist.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
As detailed in yesterday's intraday analysis dated 06 November 2024, I noted that price was expected to target the weak internal low.
Price printed to this expectation, successfully targeting the weak internal low and printing a bearish iBOS.
Following this, price has printed an additional bearish iBOS and a bullish CHoCH, confirming the internal range.
Intraday Expectation: Price is anticipated to target the weak internal low after reacting from either the premium of 50% EQ or the M15 supply zone.
Note: Considering the Fed’s softer stance, and rising geopolitical tensions, price volatility is likely to remain elevated.
M15 Chart:
What will happen to gold after the U.S. election?After Trump was elected in the U.S. election, gold went through a wave of decline. It once retreated to around $2,702, and then moved back to the 2,732 position. It fell as fast as it rose!
Gold rebounded after retreating to 2701. Pay attention to the pressure positions of 2734 and 2745.
XAUUSD: Preparing for a bullish reversal.Gold is about to go from neutral to bearish on its 4H timeframe (RSI = 45.410, MACD = -2.540, ADX = 22.042) as after breaking under its 4H MA50, it has failed to cross it on two attempts. This pullback is part of the techical bearish wave of the 3 month Channel Up and it is the 3rd in total. The two waves before that found a bottom near the 0.382 Fibonacci level and we are already just over that level. We expect some more sideways movement and ideally when the 4H RSI hits 35.000, begin the bullish reversal. Our aim is a minimum of +7.00% rise (TP = 2,900) for the next HH.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Gold is expected to continue to rebound after retreatingIn terms of trend, the price of gold is still mainly range-bound. Although the hourly line has made a downward move, with the lowest test around 2724.60, it only fell below briefly. The overall rhythm of gold is still mainly range-bound. If gold falls back, we will continue to see a rebound.
Gold's lower support is around 2730, and its upper resistance is around 2748, 2755, and 2762/2771.
The price of gold currently fluctuates mainly in a rangeThe overall operating rhythm of gold is range-bound. It fell for two consecutive trading days last week. Although there was a retracement today, it continued to support the low of 2732.
The bottom of gold continues to rely on the position near 2730, which has been supported many times in the early stage. The resistance above focuses on the 2745, 2755 and 2760 first-line suppression. If it encounters resistance, it will lighten up its positions and continue to see range fluctuations.
Will gold bottom out and rebound due to non-agricultural data?Gold began to fall sharply after hitting around 2390, but it did not continue to fall today, and continued to rise. The highest test during the day was 2757.60, which also continued the overall bullish trend momentum. Although it is not a very strong performance, it does not show a weak performance pattern after the gold price temporarily encountered resistance.
The lower support position of gold is near 2739, which is expected to bottom out and rebound, and the upper resistance level is 2771, 2782. In addition, data prices fluctuate greatly and quickly, so pay attention to risk control!
GOLD (XAUUSD): Buying After Pullback
With a yesterday's bearish movement, Gold dropped to
a key intraday/daily horizontal support.
A cup & handle pattern formation on that is a reliable signal to buy.
With a high probability, the price will reach 2769 level soon.
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XAUUSD: Bullish trend still intact.Gold is heavily bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 67.558, MACD = 11.460, ADX = 25.892) as supported by the 4H MA50, it is approaching the top of the 3 month Channe Up. Compared to the two bullish waves before it, the 4H RSI shows that there is still at least another 2 days on this uptrend. Stay bullish (TP = 2,800) and sell on the first sign of rejection near the top.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Gold will continue to reach higher levels!
Gold's current highest test is around 2757. The rising pattern of gold prices during the day broke through the upper track of the short-term convergence triangle pattern and transitioned from one range to another. Therefore, even after the correction, we continue to be bullish on gold.
The lower support for gold is near 2746, and the upper resistance is near 2760, 2768.
GOLD (XAUUSD): One More Bullish Wave is Coming?!
Gold is currently stuck within a horizontal range on a daily.
The price is approaching its upper boundary at the moment.
Because the trend is strongly bullish, chances will be high to see
a further bullish continuation.
Your reliable confirmation will be a breakout and a daily candle close
above the underlined resistance.
The next goal for the buyers will be 2780.
Alternatively, the market may continue consolidating and trading within the range.
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The golden convergence triangle oscillates upwards!Today's trend did not continue the strong rhythm of last Friday. Although the lowest test of gold was around 2724.60, the rapid rebound showed that there was some support below. The overall low point of gold's fluctuation was moving upward.
Gold's lower support is near 2728, and its upper resistance is near 2745 and 2749.
Gold: A Rebound to 2730 is Not a ProblemYesterday, gold experienced a dramatic decline. I'm curious how everyone fared—did you make a profit or incur a loss? If you made money, you can continue to profit today; if you lost, follow my lead today, and I’m sure I can help you.
In scenarios like yesterday's drop, a rebound is inevitable. Remember this: after a significant decline, a rebound will follow, and after a significant rise, a correction will occur. These are major trading opportunities that every trader should seize.
For this rebound, we won’t set overly ambitious targets. Although my psychological expectation is above 2740, I’m not willing to take that risk. I’d prefer to close my buy positions before hitting 2740 and patiently wait for it to rise before considering selling.
That’s all for now. If you want to see more detailed and specific signals, reach out to me, and you'll gain access.
Gold has rebounded and stabilized. Can it continue to rise?The gold price did not fall rapidly after reaching the hourly peak of 2738, indicating that there is no resistance above and there is still an expectation of continued rise.
The lower support for gold is near 2732, and the upper resistance is near 2750 and 2756.
XAUUSD: extending the rally on the 1H MA50.Gold is highly overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 75.334, MACD = 39.540, ADX = 45.426) but that has no effect on the short term timeframes such as on 1H, where the nearly 2 week Channel Up continues to rise. Technically it will keep extending it as long as the 1H MA50 holds. Every rebound on or below it has been around +2.50%. The last test was exactly on it (yesterday), so we remain bullish and expect at least a +2.23% rally (TP = 2,775).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Gold trades sideways to resist the fallJudging from the recent retracement rhythm of gold, the retracement will not last long, and the retracement space will not be too large. It just increased the shock, but the overall trend is bullish.
Gold support is around 2729, with upper resistance around 2746 and 2757.
Gold with two probabilities for 10/22/2024Gold with a high probability to make the decision for 10/22/2024 ✅️ :
🔸️If the price exceeds the green bar 🟩, with the bar closing in the hour above: there will be a high chance of entering a purchase as indicated in the chart, respecting the day, news and the stop loss.
🔸️If the price exceeds the red bar 🟥, with the bar closing in the hour below: there will be a high chance of entering a sale as indicated in the chart, respecting the day, news, and the stop loss.