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3 Technical Analysis Tools to Identify Resistance Levels on GOLD How to trade Gold when it is constantly setting new all-time highs? When Gold is trading beyond historical levels, technical analysis can help you to identify the next potentially strong resistance levels. In this article, I will teach you the only 3 technical analysis tools you need to find the next key resistances and predict future correctional movements on Gold chart. Tool 1 - Trend Line The first technical analysis tool that will help you to identify a potentially strong resistance is a trend line based on previous highs. Simply analyze the previous historic highs and try to find a trend line that was respected by the market at least 3 times in the past. It means that such a trend line should be based at least on 3 historic highs. Look at that rising trend line on Gold on a daily time frame. It is based on 3 historic highs, and it can be a potentially strong resistance. Tool 2 - Psychological Levels The second technical analysis tool is psychological levels. These levels are based on round, whole numbers. In our example, the closest psychological level is 2500 level. This level is based on round numbers, it is a multiple of 500 and 100. It can compose a potentially strong resistance cluster. Tool 3 - Fibonacci Levels The third technical analysis tool is Fibonacci extension and confluence. In order to identify a potentially strong resistance with Fibonacci extension, you should identify at least 3 last bullish impulses/waves. Above is the example of 3 significant impulse legs on Gold chart on a daily. Draw Fibonacci Extension levels based on these 3 impulse legs. Here are important Extension levels to consider: -1.272 -1.414 - 1.618 Above, you can see how I draw Fibonacci Extension levels based on all the impulse legs that we identified. Your task is to identify the point where the extension levels of 3 impulses match in one point. Such a point will be called confluence zone. This confluence zone will be the next potentially strong resistance. These 3 technical tools helped us to identify the resistances beyond all historical levels easily. Remember that there is no 100% guarantee that all the resistances that we spotted will be respected by the market. For that reason, you should strictly analyze a price action and a reaction of the price to these levels before you open a short trade. Alternatively, remember that these resistances can be applied as the targets for long trades. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
1
GOLD Trading: 8 Mistakes Traders MUST Avoid in a Bull Market The unstoppable uptrend on Gold may cause irrational and very costly decisions . For the past 6 months, we've seen an unprecedented surge, with new highs being set almost daily. In this article, we will discuss critical mistakes that traders often make in the midst of such a bullish run and explore the strategies to maximize your gains. 1. Technical Indicators Lie Always remember that technical indicators that measure the momentum or strength of a market trend, that show the overbought and oversold conditions, fail miserably in strong bullish or bearish rallies. I am talking about such indicators as Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving average convergence/divergence, Stochastic, etc. The fact that one of these indicators show overbought condition or even a bullish divergence most of the time will be a false signal. Above is the example of an overbought RSI on Gold chart on a daily. After the market became overbought, it went 1000 pips higher before the first pullback. 2. It is Never too High When the market starts setting new all-time highs, people typically start saying that the price is already "too high" and start closing their long positions or even open short positions. Remember, that the notion of too high is very subjective. Look at a bullish rally on Gold in 2020. I well remember that when the market updated a yearly high in April, People start staying that it is already "too high". However, the market kept rallying for 4 consequent months, constantly updating the highs. Such a market behavior may persist for a significant period of time, be prepared for that. 3. Beware of Overconfidence Even though bullish rallies may be long, always remember that they can not last forever. At some moment, correction or even bearish reversal will occur. For that reason, open long positions carefully, setting realistic targets. 4. Protect Your Gains and Maximize Your Profits When the market is trading in the uncharted territory, it is almost impossible to predict where it will find the resistance. With a take profit level, you may close the trade too soon. If you see that the market is driven by euphoria and keeps setting new all-time highs, remove take profit and apply a trailing stop instead. Keep that below the recent supports, use ATR or some other classic technical tool. That will help you to benefit from the entire rally. 5. DON'T SELL BULLISH RALLY When the market is driven by greed, euphoria or fear, never go against the market. The chance that you will accurately predict the turning point is close to 0. 6. Beware of Lower Time Frame Bearish Patterns In a strong bullish trend, classic bearish reversal pattern have low accuracy, especially on minutes time frames. Look at a sequence of double tops on 15 minutes time frame. These patterns are a great example of manipulations and how smart money induce retail traders to start shorting. In a such a strong bullish trend, the only strategy to rely on is trend-following trading. 7. Do Not Rely On News In times of strong bullish/bearish rallies, the data in economic calendar and important news releases stop giving the reliable signals. In times of bulls/bearish runs, emotions become the main driver of the markets, not the fundamental data. 8. If You Missed It, Let It Go I can imagine, how terrible you may feel yourself if you did not manage to buy Gold on a good price. It's sad, and it is painful to watch how the market goes higher and higher without you. But always remember a simple rule: if you missed the rally, let it go. With each new high that the market sets, your potential gains drop dramatically. I hope that these tips will help you not get burned while Gold is on fire. Stay calm and patient, and do not let your emotions intervene. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
1
Technical Analysis DOES NOT WORK in GOLD Trading Does technical analysis really work in Gold trading? In this article, we will discuss whether the traditional, classic methods of technical analysis: support and resistance, breakouts, patterns can be reliable in this specific market. We will explore the dynamics of Gold prices so far this year and discuss the most efficient way to trade Gold. So if you are a gold trader or simple interested in the market analysis, you should not miss this eye-opening discussion! First, let's discuss how Gold market behaves from the beginning of the year from technical analysis perspective. Gold started this year in a strong bullish trend, the market opened after setting a new higher high on a daily the second of January. After a formation of a higher high, the market became overbought and a correctional movement initiated. The price formed a bullish flag pattern and reached the level of the last higher low - a very important support. After the test of structure, the price bounced and violated a resistance line of a flag with a strong bullish candle. From the technical perspective, it was a very strong trend-following signal and a bullish continuation was anticipated. However, it turned out that it was a false signal, and instead of going higher, the market dropped, setting a new lower low. Why this false signal is so important is that the breakouts, key levels and price action analysis are the most reliable on a daily time frame. Such a strong combination: bullish trend, bullish pattern, key support; has a very high accuracy on a daily. That was the first time this year, when technical analysis on a daily was completely screwed . It felt like the market was turning bearish. The price violated a level of the higher low, setting a new lower low. For Smart Money traders, it is a very important event that is called a Change of Character. It strongly confirms a bearish reversal on the market. One more bearish confirmation that I spotted was a completed head and shoulders pattern formation with a confirmed violation of its neckline. That signal also confirms a bearish reversal. And again, these 2 bearish confirmations were the false signals. The price went back above the neckline and a bullish movement initiated. This time, a classic price action pattern did not work , and smart money concepts gave a false signal. Then I spotted a very bullish signal - the price violated a major falling trend line and closed above that. It clearly indicated that the market was returning to a global bullish trend. And again, that signal was completely false. And the price dropped. Trend line breakout in the direction of the trend - a classic trend-following confirmation did not work. Then we saw 2 strong bearish signals: a bearish breakout of a rising trend line and a key horizontal support with a high momentum bearish candle. It felt like now it confirms that the market is bearish and it should drop lower to the closest key support. And again, technicals failed miserably and after a retest of a broken horizontal structure and a trend line, the price just went higher completely neglecting them From the beginning of the year, technical analysis: key levels, patterns, smart money, breakouts do not work on a daily. All the signals that were spotted so far failed. If you just started trading, you may easily come to the conclusion that technical analysis does not make any sense on Gold. And you will be completely right, in that period it does not work at all. I am trading Gold and Forex for more than 9 years, and year after year I noticed that there always are the periods when some techniques, some strategies do not work. Sometimes these periods are very short, but some time they can be quite long. The only proven way to overcome such periods is consistency and proper risk management . Risking a tiny portion of your trading account per trade, you will be able to survive the stubborn market. The market always returns to normal conditions and starts respecting the technicals again. However, no one knows when. There is a famous quote by John Keynes: "Markets can remain irrational longer than you stay solvent"" And only proper risk management will keep you solvent longer than the market stays irrational. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
6
How to Analyze Daily Time Frame on Gold. 5 Important Things There are 5 important things that you should analyze on Gold on a daily time frame to accurately predict long term, midterm and short term movements. In this article, I will share with you a step-by-step guide for daily time frame analysis that you can apply on Gold or any other financial instrument. 1 - Identify the market trend When you analyze a daily time frame, you should identify long term, midterm and short term market trends. Long-term trend is based on the analysis of one year long price action. In the example above, Gold is trading in a long term bullish trend because the price keeps setting new higher high and new higher lows during the year. Midterm trend is based on the analysis of a price action for the last 4–5 months. Above, we can clearly see that a mid-term trend is bullish because again, the price sets new higher highs and higher lows over time. Short-term trend is based on the analysis of price movements for the last 2 months. Short-term price action is also bullish on Gold, with a clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows. According to the trend analysis, long-term, mid-term and short-term trends are bullish. 2 - Identify the directional bias The directional bias defines a highly probable future direction on the market. In our example, we can anticipate that Gold will keep growing among all the dimensions: long-term, mid-term and short-term. 3 - Execute structure analysis Identify important historic horizontal and vertical structures. That will be the points from where you should look for trading opportunities. When you analyze key levels, identify the structures that are lying close to the current price levels. Make sure that all the structures that you spotted were respected by the market in the past. 4 - Look for price action patterns Price action patterns are the language of the market. Proper identification of the patters will help you correctly understand the intentions of the market participants. You can see that a bearish breakout of a rising channel triggered a correctional movement on the market. Gold started to fall steadily within a bullish flag pattern and after it tested a key support, the price violated the resistance of the flag. 5 - Analyze candlesticks Candlestick patterns can provide extra clues and confirmations. You can see that the market formed multiple rejections from key support, an inside bar formation and bullish engulfing candle. Violation of the inside bar to the upside with a strong bullish candle is an important bullish signal. Combining trend analysis, structure analysis, price action and candlestick analysis, and you can make predictions and look for trading opportunities. You can also make your analysis even more sophisticated, for example, analyzing fundamental analysis or applying technical indicators. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
4