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Gold’s Next Big Move: Election Night’s Hidden Chart Signals!This is an image of the original Video tutorial i made walking through XAU/USD Chart Analysis Summary In both charts, we see a prominent ascending channel on a higher time frame (HTF), suggesting an overall bullish structure initially. However, there are signs of potential reversals, especially around critical levels where price fails to break higher and instead forms correctional structures. The ascending channel shown aligns with The Rule of Three, as it often precedes reversals after the third touch due to exhaustion in the trend​​. Reversal Signal: Double Top with Bearish Flag The first chart illustrates a double top pattern within the broader ascending channel, a common reversal signal. This pattern suggests a weakening bullish momentum, aligning with a probable corrective phase. Following the double top, we observe a bearish flag or descending channel, indicating that the price may continue downward after a break. This aligns with Patterns within Patterns, where a smaller bearish flag within a larger corrective structure increases the probability of a downside move​. Bull Flag Structure and Liquidity Zone Testing The second chart labels a large bull flag on the higher time frame (4H) near a liquidity zone. The corrective phase within this flag aligns with the market psychology of retracement after an impulsive move. Multi-Touch Confirmation indicates that these structures gain credibility with multiple touches on key support/resistance lines, making the upcoming third touch a critical point for deciding the direction​. Potential Entry and Exit Scenarios Based on Entry Types from your strategy: High-Probability Entry: Enter on a break of the corrective structure (such as the bear flag or descending channel) following multiple touches. Place a stop loss above the recent high if you’re anticipating a downside continuation, using a reduced-risk entry if you see low-momentum candles and ascending channels close to the top​. Wait for Confirmation: Given the corrective nature, it might be safer to wait for a confirmed breakout rather than entering at the top without solid confirmation. Back-tested data often shows better results when entries are taken after the third touch or initial pullback post-breakout​​. Confluence of Multi-Touch and Patterns The multi-touch confirmation method supports the idea of a third touch before a potential breakout or breakdown. Additionally, patterns within patterns enhance reliability, as seen with ascending or descending channels within larger structures, suggesting the market’s next probable moves more accurately. Strategy Application: Assess the Momentum: Enter on the first pullback (flag formation) after a significant breakout if momentum is strong. For a conservative approach, watch for a third touch on the boundary of the corrective channel. Risk Management: As part of your trading plan, place stops conservatively to avoid getting caught in corrective waves, as tight stops near liquidity zones may result in unnecessary stop-outs. Psychological Preparation: Avoid the perfectionist trap; if the confluence signals are strong but not perfect, following the 80/20 rule may be more beneficial than waiting for ideal entries, as markets rarely align perfectly with expectations​​.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Adlercon333
KOG's RED BOXES - GOLDRed Boxes: Break above 2755 for 2762, 2768, 2780 Break below 2742 for 2732, 2720, 2709 Many of us sit and wait for the perfect entry, I can tell you, unless you're scalping, this hardly ever happens. The key to get an entry is identifying your target region first! Once you have identified that target region, then start looking not for a precise entry, but a region or a zone you want to be testing your entry in. The skill is not getting in too early, and if you get in too late, you're usually going to be the wrong side of the market. So, use the bias and the red boxes, bullish/bearish above/below. Most new traders struggle with basic support and resistance or identifying zones; hence they’ll usually enter the market at the wrong time and place. This is where red boxes are really helpful, you can use them to identify key regions if you’re scalping or use the higher or lower ones for day trading and managing trades in-between. KOG’s Red boxes are part of our strategy and are added to our targets to further fine tune our entries and exits. We also use them combined with our hotspots and Excalibur/LiTE targets to keep us in the right direction of the markets, allowing us to trade between the levels, scalp in ranges or in low volume periods as well as identify possible turning points on the pair we’re trading. We’ve been using these now for a few years and they have proven to work extremely well when combined with our other strategy as well as a standalone strategy in itself, once you have experience. You need to have a plan and you will need to have basic knowledge of price action, you can add MA’s, indicators of your choice, and use these with your own strategy to limit your drawdown and identify when you may be in the wrong side of the market. You will notice the boxes, just like usual support and resistance will give RIPs. Keep an eye on KOG’s bias of the day together with the targets as well as the analysis we share on the KOG Report updates. This will help you to make a plan for the day, then add the red boxes to your charts and hopefully you’ll notice a difference in your trading. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
10
Gold Analysis: Breaking above 1765 may open the door for 1830What happened the last week? Gold is on a hot streak! Last week, the yellow metal saw some relief as it went up against the U.S. dollar and other currencies worldwide. As a result, the gold has ended its three-week decline. But will this temporary victory be more than just an illusion? With uncertainty surrounding global energy production brewing into what many fear could become another 2008-style crisis. China Evergrande debt issue, tapering fears from Federal Reserve banks, and The U.S. political drama sent the gold price high in the last week despite the U.S. dollars positive economic reports. In such an environment, investors may not want to risk tying their fortunes too closely with one element when they don't know which way things are going next month. But one thing we should not forget is that October is not suitable for gold buyers, and it is historically proven. Last week, the FOMC was hawkish, and T-bond helped the USD; as a result, gold tested nearly 1722 price areas. Even FOMC members hint that the tapering may start soon, and rate hiking is expected in 2022. The U.S. economics reports were also positive than forecast. But all positive factors for the USD didn't stop the rising gold price because of inflation expectations, the U.S. political drama, China Evergrande debt issue, tapering fears, and uncertainty on global energy production. Great Britain is suffering from a lack of oil and gas. We also saw the oil and gas price jump up as a result. It means investors are concerned about inflation expectations. What about the next week? Several market move data will be published in the next week, including the U.S. job market reports. Last month's NFP report was too negative. It was supposed to, because august added a high number of jobs in the U.S. economy, and September's forecast was also a high number. Usually, it seemed a difficult position. Anyhow, The next few days will be interesting for gold traders. The Chinese markets are closed on Thursday, which should allow volatility in Asian trading while they remain closed through Tuesday's US ISM Services PMI (which is informative). Wednesday morning brings us ADP Nonfarm Employment Change which gives insight into America's job market growth rate before we see any indication from the Federal Reserve regarding tapering expectations towards monetary policy changes due out later. The U.S. Department of Labor's weekly Initial Jobless Claims report will be drawing some attention alongside New York Federal Reserve President John William's speech on Thursday. Friday brings in the all-important NFP data expectations for a better-than-expected print at 500K vs. last month's abysmal 235k figure. It indicates that what may have well-made progress towards meeting Fed Chairman Powell and Co.'s goal for maximum employment - it'll be closely eyed, no doubt. The price of gold will remain at the mercy of market sentiment. Investors must keep their eye on what is happening in U.S. politics and how global energy crises are playing out. Investors will also keep an eye on the economic data from around the world, including emerging markets. China has recently started investing more heavily in technology stocks rather than buying physical ones. They used to do it just because there's too much supply already causing inflation across all types of goods these days. So, be careful. Gold's price does not just depend on one factor. Gold Technical analysis Gold stuck below the descending trendline. Technically though, it is still in a downtrend. But I am a bit confused that the positive economic reports failed to send gold prices lower from the resistance level. Usually, gold drops from such a strong resistance level just for a technical reason. But last week, that didn't happen. That means market sentiment favoring higher gold prices. So, from the present rate, resistance and breakout area is identified at the 1765 price zone. If gold price can break above 1765, it may open the 1780/1785 price zone. I think gold will go for correction from the 1785 price zone. But in case gold breaks above the 1785/1890 price zone, it is expected to hit again above the 18000/1805 price zone. And our final upside target is the 1830/1835 zone. I don't think gold will be able to break above 1835 easily. Even October is not a good month for gold buyers; it is historically proved. On the other hand, if we see the global energy production crisis settled and the U.S. job market reports can fulfill the expectations, it is just a matter of time that the gold price will drop heavily. From the present rate, immediate support is identified at the 1750 price zone. Breaking below 1750 will open the door for the following support 1725/1720 price zone. 1720/1725 price zone may act as a retracement area for gold. But breaking below 1720, it is expected gold may hit below the 1700 price zone.
TVC:GOLD
by Gold_Trading_Expert
2