XAU/USD Chart Analysis: Volatility at a Yearly LowXAU/USD Chart Analysis: Volatility at a Yearly Low
The daily chart of XAU/USD shows that the Average Directional Index (ADX) has reached its lowest level since the beginning of 2025, indicating a significant decline in gold price volatility.
Yesterday’s release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) initially triggered a sharp spike in gold prices, but the gains were short-lived, with the price quickly reverting to previous levels. This price action aligns with a broader market narrative of equilibrium—where supply and demand are in relative balance, and the market appears to be efficiently pricing in key influencing factors, including geopolitical tensions and tariff-related developments.
However, this fragile balance may soon be disrupted.
Technical Analysis of XAU/USD
From a broader technical perspective, gold remains within a long-term ascending channel (highlighted in blue) in 2025. Key observations include:
→ Attempts to rebound from the lower boundary of the channel (marked with arrows) lack conviction. Bulls are not capitalising on these opportunities to reignite the uptrend, suggesting a potential exhaustion of buying interest.
→ A trendline drawn across the major highs of 2025 has proven to be a strong resistance level. All recent breakout attempts have failed at this barrier.
As a result, the XAU/USD chart is showing signs of forming a large-scale triangle pattern, with its axis centred around the $3,333 level. If bulls continue to falter in extending the multi-month rally, it could encourage bears to challenge the lower boundary of the ascending channel, increasing the risk of a downside breakout.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Xauusdtrend
Gold fluctuated downward. Stuck in a stalemate.Information summary:
Global investors have experienced the longest night this year. There are reports that Trump has drafted a letter to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. The incident triggered a strong reaction in the financial market. An hour later, Trump came out to clarify that "there is no plan to take any action" and denied drafting a letter to fire Powell.
Due to the impact of the incident, gold experienced a roller coaster market, soaring more than $50 at one time, hitting a three-week high of $3,377.17, and then narrowed its gains to 0.68%, and finally closed at $3,347.38. In today's Asian market, gold fell slightly and is currently hovering around $3,325.
Market analysis:
The current volatility pattern has not changed. In the short term, the market shows signs of weakness, which is also affected by CPI data, and expectations for interest rate cuts have weakened. In the current state where there is no break in the pattern, waiting and watching is still the best strategy.
The first support level is around 3,310, which is the starting point of last week's high. The second is around 3280, which is the historical low since July and also the starting point of the rise in the first week of July.
Gold fluctuates downward. Can it break through?The CPI data released is in line with expectations, the tariff storm is still continuing, inflation rebounds and the Fed's expectations of interest rate cuts have cooled. Gold rebounded to 3366 and then fell, and is currently fluctuating around 3330.
From the current trend, gold fell strongly and broke through the Bollinger middle rail and the moving average support. The daily line focuses on the Bollinger middle rail under pressure near 3340, and the short-term support is at 3310. At present, a staged top pattern has been formed and the K-line double top is around 3366. The Bollinger moves downward and the price is in a downward channel.
For short-term operations, Quaid believes that the strategy of rebound shorting can still be followed.
Short near 3345, stop loss 3355, profit range 3330-3310
Long near 3310, stop loss 3300, profit range 3330-3345
Eyes on 3335–3325: Next Bullish Launchpad!!!Today, gold hit 3375 several times and then fell back after encountering resistance. The lowest has reached 3341. Although the rising structure has not been completely destroyed, and the technical double bottom structure and the inverted head and shoulder structure support resonance effect still exist below, since gold fell below 3350, it has not even been able to stand above 3350 in the current rebound. The gold bull pattern has been weakened to a certain extent, and the market has begun to diverge in the long and short consciousness.
Gold encountered resistance and fell back near 3375 three times, proving that the upper resistance is relatively strong. Gold must increase liquidity by retracement to store more energy for breakthrough, so the short-term correction of gold is actually within my expectations, which is why I advocate brave shorting of gold today! However, according to the current retracement range and the fact that gold has been unable to stabilize above 3350, I believe that gold has not fallen to the right level and there is still room for retracement below. So I think gold will continue to pull back to test the 3335-3325 area. If gold retests this area and does not fall below, we can boldly go long on gold in this area.
Once gold rebounds after testing the 3335-3325 area, as liquidity increases, the market may form a strong bullish force to support gold to continue its rebound and continue to the 3380-3390 area, or even the 3400-3410 area.
XAUUSD 2H | Smart Money Buy from Strong DemandXAUUSD 2H | Support Rejection with Upside Targets 🎯
Price respected the key support zone and is now showing bullish momentum. Two clear target levels are marked above. Ideal buy opportunity after rejection confirmation from demand zone. Watch for clean continuation toward 3370 and 3390.
#XAUUSD #GoldAnalysis #SmartMoneyConcepts #SMC #Forex #PriceAction #BuySetup
Market Analysis: Gold Climbs Higher Amid Market OptimismMarket Analysis: Gold Climbs Higher Amid Market Optimism
Gold price started a fresh increase above the $3,350 resistance level.
Important Takeaways for Gold Price Analysis Today
- The gold price started a fresh surge and traded above $3,330.
- A key bullish trend line is forming with support at $3,350 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
Gold Price Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price formed a base near the $3,280 zone. The price started a steady increase above the $3,330 and $3,350 resistance levels.
There was a decent move above the 50-hour simple moving average and $3,360. The bulls pushed the price above the $3,365 resistance zone. A high was formed near $3,373 and the price is now consolidating.
On the downside, immediate support is near the $3,350 level and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $3,282 swing low to the $3,373 high.
Besides, there is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $3,350. The next major support sits at $3,330 and the 50% Fib retracement level.
A downside break below the $3,330 support might send the price toward $3,300. Any more losses might send the price toward the $3,280 support zone.
Immediate resistance is near the $3,370 level. The next major resistance is near $3,380. An upside break above $3,380 could send Gold price toward $3,400. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $3,420 level.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
The bulls have started, aiming at 3400!Gold rose as soon as the market opened, and the highest has now reached above 3374. The upward momentum of gold is strong. It can be seen that after breaking through the recent high of 3365, its morphological structure has obviously tended to a bullish structure, and the technical form shows a "W" double bottom structure and an inverted head and shoulder resonance. The resonance of this technical structure will continue to support the continued rise of gold.
At present, gold is under pressure near the 3380 area in the short term, followed by the area near 3405. At present, gold has a technical retracement near 3380, but it is difficult to destroy the already formed rising structure based on the current retracement strength. Once gold rises again, 3380 will definitely be conquered! It will even continue to the 3400-3410 area; and the area with obvious short-term support is concentrated in the 3350-3340-3330 area, so gold may still rebound again with the support of this area after the decline, and continue to rise.
So for short-term trading, I would consider buying gold in batches based on the support of the 3350-3330 area, with the first target looking at 3380, followed by the 3400-3410 area.
XAUUSD 1H | Bullish BOS & OB Retest | Targeting 3390+🚀 Gold (XAUUSD) 1H Timeframe is showing a clean Bullish Market Structure with multiple Breaks of Structure (BOS ↑) confirming upside momentum.
🔹 Price retraced back into a strong Demand Zone (OB) and has started pushing upward again, indicating strong buyer interest.
🔹 Clear Order Block Retest after BOS confirms Smart Money Entry.
🔹 Target is marked around 3390+, based on previous liquidity and imbalance zones.
📈 Expecting continuation of bullish trend until the marked Target Point is reached.
💡 This setup follows pure SMC principles: BOS → OB Retest → Expansion.
🟢 Buy Bias Active | 📊 High Probability Trade Setup
#XAUUSD #Gold #SMC #BreakOfStructure #OrderBlock #LiquidityGrab #TrustTechnicallyAnalysis
Affected by tariffs, gold rose again.On Saturday, Trump announced that he would impose a 30% tariff on goods imported from the European Union and Mexico from August 1. This news triggered a rise in risk aversion in the market. As a traditional safe-haven asset, gold was once again sought after. The price continued the rise on Friday and continued to open high in the early Asian session. As of now, the highest price reached around 3373.
From the current market point of view, after breaking through the triangle pattern last Friday, there was a sharp rise. The price successfully stood on the short-term moving average, showing an overall bullish trend. However, it should be noted that the short-term moving average has not yet formed an upward cross, which means that there is a high possibility of a confirmation process in the future. Looking back at the trend in the past two months, gold rarely opens high and then continues to rise. Most of them open high and go low. Therefore, under the current situation, although it is bullish overall, it is not advisable to blindly chase more. It is more suitable to wait for a decline before arranging more orders. The key lies in grasping the decline position.
From the perspective of pressure level, 3380-3385 is the first pressure level, and the second pressure level is 3395-3400. The support level below is around 3345, which is also the pressure level that has been emphasized in the early stage, and the top and bottom conversion position. For today's operation, Quaid recommends low-to-long.
Operation strategy:
Short near 3380, stop loss 3390, profit range 3360-3345
Long near 3345, stop loss 3335, profit range 3360-3380
"GOLD Bandit Strategy: Loot Pips Like a Pro!🏆 GOLD HEIST ALERT! 🏆 XAU/USD Bandit Strategy (Swing/Day Trade)
Steal Pips Like a Pro! 💰🔓 Bull vs. Bear Raid Plan
🌟 Greetings, Market Pirates! 🌟
"The trend is your accomplice—time to loot!"
🔮 Thief’s Technical & Fundamental Intel:
XAU/USD (The Gold Vault) is flashing BEARISH signals, but we’re ready to raid both sides! Follow the heist blueprint below 👇
🎯 ENRY POINTS (Where to Strike!)
🏴☠️ LONG RAID (Bullish Thieves):
Break & Grab: Enter above 3450.00 (Pullback Zone)
"Wait for the breakout, then ambush!"
🐻 SHORT RAID (Bearish Bandits):
Sneak Attack 1: Sell below 3300.00
Sneak Attack 2: Sell below 3260.00 (Support Wall Cracked!)
🛑 STOP-LOSS (Escape Routes)
Bullish Trade: SL at 3230.00 (Guard your loot!)
Bearish Trade 1: SL at 3360.00 (Don’t get caught!)
Bearish Trade 2: SL at 3280.00 (Risk = Reward!)
(Adjust SL based on your risk appetite & lot size!)
💰 TAKE-PROFIT (Cash Out & Flee!)
Bullish Thieves: TP at 3270.00 (Or escape early!)
Bearish Bandits (1): TP at 3270.00
Bearish Bandits (2): TP at 3210.00 (Big score!)
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News = Danger Zone! 📢 Avoid new trades during high-impact news.
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Gold breaks through. Will it continue?After breaking through the position predicted by Quaid on Friday, gold rose strongly and finally maintained the fluctuation range of 3345-3360 that I predicted. Gold bulls are now strong. If there is no major change in the news over the weekend, the price will likely continue to rise after a slight decline at the beginning of next week. I think we can still follow the strategy of Dutou.
The 1-hour moving average of gold continues to diverge with a golden cross and upward bullish arrangement, and the bullish momentum of gold is still there. The current strong support level of gold has also moved up to around 3330. After gold broke through 3330 over the weekend, the price fell back to 3330 and stabilized and rose twice. In the short term, this position has formed a strong support.
There is a high probability that the price will have a small correction at the beginning of next week. We can continue the bullish strategy after the price falls back.
Market transactions should abandon personal preferences. Preconceived subjective consciousness will eventually be taught a lesson by the market. The market is always right. We should follow the fluctuations of the market. Instead of having a head full of random thoughts. There are always traces of market changes, and you need to have the ability to discover them or follow those who have the ability. The market changes rapidly, so pay attention to more timely changes.
The price fell back. Watch out for a breakthrough.After reaching the resistance position near 3345 predicted by Quaid, the price fell back slightly, and the price fluctuated around 3335 so far.
From the hourly chart, before the price stabilizes at 3345, it is likely to maintain a range of 3330-3345. 3330-3345 is a temporary range. If it stands firm and breaks above 3345 again, the fluctuation range will become 3345-3360.
On the contrary, if it falls below 3330, the range may drop to 3320-3330. However, as long as the downward trend does not fall below 3320, gold will still maintain a bullish trend. If the price breaks down below 3320, today’s trend will be reversed.
As long as it is above 3320, gold will maintain a bullish trend today.
On the last trading day of this week, I wish all traders a good harvest.
XAUUSD H4 | Premium Supply RejectionPrice has tapped into a premium selling zone around 3,340 - 3,350 and is showing signs of rejection.
📍 Key Levels:
• Premium Supply Zone: 3,340 – 3,350
• Current Price: 3,332
• Target Zone: 3,275 – 3,265
• Intermediate Support Zones: Around 3,320 & 3,300
🔴 Liquidity was swept above the previous high, and price has reacted strongly from this level.
🔻 Bearish Bias:
• Expecting a move down towards target support.
• Clean break of structure confirms bearish intent.
• Multiple FVGs and imbalance zones below price support the downside continuation.
📌 Trade Idea:
Sell from premium zone with confirmation
🎯 Target: 3,275 zone
📉 SL suggestion: Above 3,355 (structure invalidation)
Gold is fluctuating. Can it break through?Since the price of gold rose to 3500 on April 22 and encountered resistance and fell back, it has shown a triangular convergence and fluctuation trend so far. From the short-term trend, after the decline adjustment on Tuesday, it bottomed out and rebounded on Wednesday to close with a positive line, and on Thursday it completed the shock consolidation with a small positive line. The current moving average system is in an intertwined state, and the short-term market tends to fluctuate.
Today, we need to pay attention to the resistance of the 3340-3345 range. This position is a high point concentration area that has suppressed the upward movement of gold prices many times in the early stage. If the gold price breaks through this range, the bullish trend is expected to continue.
From the current trend, after the gold price bottomed out and rebounded, it formed a short-term support at 3310. Secondly, we need to pay attention to the support strength near the low point of 3282 on Tuesday. In terms of operation, it is still necessary to operate around the range.
Operation strategy:
Short when the price rebounds to around 3345, stop loss at 3355, profit range 3320-3300
Long when the price falls back to around 3310, stop loss at 3300, profit range 3320-3340
Trump blasted Powell again. Interest rates remain unchanged.Information summary:
Trump blasted Powell on Wednesday, saying that the current interest rate is "at least 3 percentage points higher" and once again accused Fed Chairman Powell of "making the United States pay an extra $360 billion in refinancing costs each year." He also said that "there is no inflation" and that companies "are pouring into the United States," and urged the Fed to "cut interest rates."
During the U.S. trading session, gold also showed a significant rebound momentum, rebounding from a low of 3285 to above 3310 in one fell swoop. As of now, gold has stood above 3320.
Market analysis:
From the daily chart:
It can be seen that the first suppression position above gold is currently at 3325, followed by around 3345. Gold did not close above 3320 on Wednesday, which means that even if gold is currently above 3320, as long as today's daily line closes below 3320, it is still in a bearish trend. On the contrary, if the closing price today is above 3320, then the subsequent test of the suppression position near 3345 may be further carried out.
Secondly, from the 4-hour chart, the current suppression position above 4 hours is around 3330-3335. Therefore, today we should focus on this position. If we cannot stand firm and break through the range suppression here in the 4-hour chart, we may retreat again in the future. The key support position below is around 3310, which is the opening price today. If the price is to retreat, it is likely to fall below 3310. But it may also remain above 3310 for consolidation.
However, as long as it falls below 3310, I think the low point near 3285 may be refreshed, so pay attention to this.
Operation strategy:
Steady trading waits for 3310 to fall and break through to short, and the profit range is 3385 or even lower.
Aggressive trading can short near 3340, with a stop loss of 3350.
Gold rose. Trend reversed.Gold rose slightly in early Asian trading on Wednesday, but fell under pressure near 3308. It fluctuated in the European trading range of 3296-3282. It broke through the US trading range and rose to around 3317 in the late trading. The daily line closed with a positive line with a lower shadow.
After a sharp drop on Tuesday, gold showed a downward recovery trend on Wednesday and closed positive. It rose slightly in early Asian trading today. From the daily level, in the short term, we should first pay attention to the resistance near 3325-3330. This area brings together the current positions of the 5-day moving average, the 10-day moving average and the 60-day moving average, which is an important gateway for the game between long and short forces in the short term. If the gold price continues to be under pressure in this area, it means that the short-term upward momentum is insufficient, and we need to be alert to the risk of a market decline.
If the above resistance area can be broken and the price continues to rise strongly, the next target will be the resistance near 3345, which is not only the high point on Tuesday, but also the current location of the 20-day moving average and the 30-day moving average, which has a strong technical resistance significance.
In terms of support below, first pay attention to the support near 3280, which is the current support level of the trend line formed by the low points of May 15 and June 30, which provides certain support for the gold price.
Operation strategy:
Short at price rebound near 3345, stop loss at 3355, profit range 3320-3300
Long at price drop near 3315, stop loss at 3305, profit range 3320-3340
Data is about to be released. Where will gold go?Yesterday, the market expected a trade agreement between the United States and its trading partners, which boosted risk sentiment, and the strengthening of the US dollar and the rise in US bond yields further added pressure on gold prices. Gold fell 1% during the day and once lost the $3,300 mark during the session.
After gold bottomed out and stabilized at 3,320 on Monday, it fell sharply above 3,320 again on Tuesday and has now completely fallen below 3,320. The position of 3,320 is very important. In the 3,320-50 range, it chose to break down at 3,320 again.
Today, the Federal Open Market Committee of the United States will release the minutes of the June monetary policy meeting. Although Federal Reserve Chairman Powell remained neutral on the June interest rate decision, many Federal Reserve officials released dovish signals. Federal Reserve Board member Bowerman has turned to support the possibility of a rate cut in July.
From a technical point of view, the market has penetrated into the area around the lower support of 3,275-3,295.
The rhythm of the entire market is still a process of oscillating decline. From the perspective of pressure position, the daily MA5 average line has not fallen below, and may fall again to around 3270. Once the market falls too fast and approaches this position, there is a high probability that there will be a rebound demand.
Operation strategy:
Buy near 3375, stop loss at 3365, profit range 3315-3320.
Continue to hold position after breakthrough.
Buy Gold! The short-term bottom may have appeared!Gold continued to retreat yesterday and hit a recent low, reaching around 3287. Then gold gradually rebounded to above 3300. Relatively speaking, the rebound momentum was weak. It is expected that the long and short sides will fight fiercely around 3300. However, from the recent characteristics of gold operation, it can be seen that although the short position of gold is strong, it is difficult to continue in the short term, and I think the short-term decline of gold is basically in place, so at this stage, in terms of short-term trading, I do not advocate shorting gold directly;
As gold did not continue to fall after reaching around 3287, on the contrary, it gradually rebounded to above 3300, which may strengthen the market's consensus on the short-term bottom, thereby attracting the favor of off-site funds; from the current gold structure, if gold can maintain above 3300-3295, it may be combined with the 3287 low to build a "W" double bottom structure, which is conducive to supporting the rebound of gold.
However, as gold fell below 3300 again, the bearish trend is relatively strong, so we need to moderately lower our expectations for a gold rebound. In the short term, gold is under pressure in the 3315-3325 area, so we can temporarily look to this area for the rebound target. Therefore, in short-term trading, I do not advocate shorting gold directly, and you can first consider going long on gold in the 3300-3295 area, TP: 3310-3320-3330.
Gold is going down without any signs. Will it continue?Yesterday's seemingly strong rise in gold's safe-haven market may make people mistakenly think that gold is going to rise sharply, but the recent safe-haven market has poor sustainability and poor upward momentum, and cannot maintain the continuation of the upward trend.
Looking at gold in 1 hour, after the price surged, it continued to fall under pressure at 3345. 3345 is also the recent key position for long and short positions. The 1-hour moving average of gold is still in a short position and continues to diverge downward. The short-term short momentum of gold still exists. I think the price will still fall after the rebound. Gold started to fall directly at 3330, and 3330 formed a strong resistance for gold in the short term. The downward low point did not continue after touching 3288. The current price rebounded and fluctuated around 3295. So we can sell high and buy low around 3385-3325.
Gold is expected to regain bullish momentum and continue to 3360Yesterday, gold rebounded from 3296 and was able to reach around 3345. Although the process was rather painful, we have to admit that gold bulls still have the energy to wrestle with bears, and the gold market is not one-sidedly dominated by bears. As gold gradually tested and confirmed the effectiveness of support during the retracement process and then rebounded effectively, the short-term structure of gold gradually changed and began to favor bulls.
After gold hit bottom and rebounded yesterday, we can clearly see from the short-term structure that gold has successfully constructed a head and shoulders bottom structure in the three areas of 3295-3244-3296 in the short term, thus playing an absolute supporting role in the structure; and in the process of repeated testing of gold, there are signs of constructing a head and shoulders bottom structure in the three areas of 3310-3296-3325 locally again. Under the effect of the structural support resonance of the head and shoulders bottom, gold may not go below 3320 again, and may even regain the bullish trend and continue to the 3345-3355 area.
So I think there is a lot of profit potential in going long on gold. We can go long on gold with the 3330-3320 area as support and look towards the target area: 3340-3350-3360
Gold fluctuates. Beware of highs.On Monday, the U.S. dollar index rose sharply, reaching an intraday high of 97.65 as Trump announced that he would impose new tariffs on a series of countries including Japan and South Korea on August 1.
Spot gold fell first and then rose. It once fell below the $3,300 mark during the session, but then rebounded strongly in a V-shaped manner by nearly $40. As of now, it has stabilized above 3,330.
From the current daily line:
3,320 is the absolute support position for gold at present. Although it fell below 3,320 yesterday, Monday, it then reversed and stabilized above 3,320. For now, the daily line still cannot close below 3,320. If it closes below 3,320, the decline may open further. On the contrary, the current upper suppression position of gold is around 3,350. That is to say, it is basically maintained at 3,320-50 for rectification.
If the daily line stabilizes at 3350 again, the bulls may rise again.
From the 4-hour chart, gold currently shows signs of a head and shoulders bottom. If the 4-hour chart stabilizes above 3340 again, the suppression level of 3350 may be directly broken. Next, it may directly touch the high level of 3380-90. Therefore, in terms of operation, I suggest that you can maintain long positions at 3320-30.
The first target is 3340-50. As long as the 4-hour chart stabilizes above 3340, you can continue to look at 3380-90.
Gold rebounded from the bottom. Is the decline over?Gold prices faced selling pressure in today's Asian market. The price fell from 3343 to around 3320 in the early Asian session. The European price continued to fall, reaching a low of around 3296, and then rebounded upward. The current price is fluctuating around 3320.
Most investors will focus on the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting to be released on Wednesday to get guidance on the trend.
From the hourly chart, the upper pressure position is constantly being corrected. The current average pressure value is around 3330-3335. At the same time, this position is also the watershed between long and short positions in the previous dense area. The price may rebound to this position again. The lower support level is in the range of 3300-3290.
Quaid believes that the current market is still showing a downward trend, and the price may fall back below 3300 again.
Operation strategy:
Short around 3330, stop loss 3340, profit range 3310-3300, sustainable ownership after breakthrough.
The bears will take the 3290-3280 area stronglyGold started to fall from 3342 during the day and fell below 3300 at one point. Gold is in an obvious short position, and during the London market, gold continued its downward momentum without any decent rebound. Gold is in an extremely weak state. In the absence of a rebound in the London market, I think New York is very likely to continue to fall.
According to the current structure, gold is facing technical suppression of the head and shoulders in the short term, which greatly limits the rebound space of gold and suppresses the rebound limit within 3335. As the center of gravity of gold moves down, the resistance in the short term moves down to the 3315-3325 area. After breaking through 3330, the downward space has been opened up to a certain extent. So don’t be fooled by the false bullish candle that appear near 3330. Gold will inevitably continue to fall to the 3290-3280 area.
The 3290-3280 area is bound to be won, so shorting gold is still the first choice for short-term trading. You can consider shorting gold with the 3315-3325-3335 area as resistance, and look to the target area: 3295-3285-3275.