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Gold 1H Outlook - XAUUSD May 4th 2025🔥 XAUUSD – H1 Outlook | May 4, 2025 Bias: ⚠ Short-term neutral to bearish — price reacting from a weak CHoCH + premium rejection. Flow: Intraday trapped between 3240 demand and 3280–3300 supply. Next move decides the breakout. 🔎 Market Structure: ❗ Clean CHoCH + BOS sequence from 3285 → confirms bearish LTF momentum 🟠 Current HL attempt rejected off imbalance around 3268–3275 🔹 Structure still building under H4 LH (3315), supply remains in control unless flipped 🗝 Key H1 Levels (with confluence): 🔵 3233–3244 → Micro OB + FVG Support 🔄 Key short-term HL zone ⚡ RSI oversold bounce last touch EMA5/21 zone → bounce risk 🟡 3268–3275 → FVG + OB + Last CHoCH Zone 🚩 This is the first sell POI 💧 Liquidity just above (equal highs) Ideal for LTF short scalp if price rejects again 🔺 3288–3302 → H1–H4 Confluence Supply 🔥 Strong bearish OB + liquidity sweep area 🧱 Reaction zone for swing shorts (supply locked) Confluence with premium fib retracement 🔻 3190–3200 → Extreme Demand Zone 🧲 Weak low + imbalance + discount OB 🔑 Watch for possible NY reversal trap if price collapses 💡 Plan: We’re in the battlefield between weak HLs and greedy supply zones. If 3275 rejects again → scalp sells back to 3240. If 3240 fails → 3200 could be the "trap long" to flip everything. 🧠 Final Note: Patience beats precision. Let the chart show its cards — no need to guess when liquidity does the talking. 🙏 Like this breakdown? Boost and follow us for sniper setups all week. 📌 Important Notice!!! The above analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always compare with your plan and wait for confirmation before taking action. #XAUUSD #GoldOutlook #SMC #LiquidityHunt #SmartMoneyFlow
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by GoldMindsFX
Gold 4H Outlook - XAUUSD May 4th🔍 XAUUSD – H4 Outlook (May 4, 2025) Trend: 🔻 Bearish structure still intact after the lower high at 3533 (ATH) and CHoCH at 3420. 🔹 Price is now ranging below lower high, with weak demand attempts from 3200–3240 zone. 🔸 Order flow bearish unless major BOS above 3320. 🗝 Key H4 Levels & Confluences 🔵 3195–3220 → H4 Demand + EQ + FVG 🧲 Last strong reaction zone pre-rally 🔁 Untapped OB + minor gap 🔄 EMA21 dynamic support below it 🟣 FIBO 61.8% of swing leg (April move) 🔵 3280–3295 → H4 POI (Supply Flip Zone) 📉 Reaction to this zone previously rejected bullish continuation 🧱 Confluence with 4H OB + minor FVG + EQ ⚠ If broken → clean magnet toward 3320 🔺 3315–3325 → Major LH Zone + Liquidity Magnet 💧 Internal liquidity build-up 🟤 If flipped → could induce bullish CHoCH on HTF 🚨 Final decision zone before possible premium push 🔻 3050–3075 → Weekly OB + H4 FVG ⛔ Major HTF demand below current price 🔄 EMA100 crossover area 🧲 Long-term buy interest if macro risk spikes ⚠ Summary: Gold remains in a bearish HTF context, but is holding at key demand near 3220. Rejection from 3280–3295 could reinforce bearish continuation. Break above 3325 flips structure bullish — until then, sellers still in control. 🙏 Like this breakdown? Boost and follow us for sniper setups all week. 📌 Important Notice!!! The above analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always compare with your plan and wait for confirmation before taking action. #XAUUSD #GoldOutlook #SMC #LiquidityHunt #SmartMoneyFlow
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by GoldMindsFX
Gold Daily Outlook - XAUUSD May 4thXAUUSD Daily Outlook – May 5, 2025 Structure doesn’t lie. Gold is cooling off – but the real game might just be starting. 📊 Trend & Structure: HTF Bias: Bullish (intact), but showing signs of exhaustion. Daily Market Flow: Strong rejection from 3500 ATH → bearish correction underway. Latest Daily Candle: Bearish with large upper wick – confirms aggressive selling after liquidity grab. 🔹 Key Daily Levels: 🔻 Premium Rejection Zone Zone: 3475–3500 Confluence: Previous ATH + liquidity sweep + FVG + overextension Note: Reversal confirmed. Sellers aggressively stepped in. 🔻 Active Imbalance Zone Zone: 3375–3400 Context: Unmitigated bearish FVG formed after ATH rejection What to expect: Intraday bounces possible, but mostly mitigation unless reclaimed. 🔹 Current Reaction Zone Zone: 3220–3255 Structure: Micro CHoCH + fresh demand reaction + FVG fill Note: Bulls defending here. Breakdown = lower retracement likely. 🔻 Key Mid-Term Support Zone: 3050–3080 Reason: Daily demand + OB + prior BOS Expectation: Strongest support if price breaks 3200 – ideal HTF reentry. 🔢 Fibonacci Extension Targets (if 3500 breaks) Using impulse leg 2970 → 3500 with retrace to 3204.50: Extension Level Target Price Commentary 1.0 3500 ATH (already hit) 1.12 3558 First extension zone, minor reaction possible 1.272 3610 Institutional TP1 zone 1.414 3660 Premium FVG / liquidity target 1.618 3730 Strong continuation target, reversal zone 1.786 3785 Final blow-off area, low probability without macro push 📊 Summary: Gold reached a major milestone at 3500, swept liquidity, and is now in correction mode. As long as 3220–3255 holds, bulls may stage a short-term defense. However, failure to hold opens the door to 3050–3080, the next major structure zone. Above 3500, use extension zones to track sentiment traps and profit-taking waves. 🧠 Final Thought: From greed at 3500 to fear at 3200 — markets reset sentiment before the next move. Smart money isn’t emotional. Stay with structure, not ego. 🙏 Like this breakdown? Boost and follow us for sniper setups all week. 📌 Important Notice!!! The above analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always compare with your plan and wait for confirmation before taking action. #XAUUSD #GoldOutlook #SMC #LiquidityHunt #SmartMoneyFlow
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by GoldMindsFX
Gold Weekly Outlook - XAUUSD May 5th- May 9th🌍 XAUUSD Weekly Outlook – “Gold’s Cooling Off… Or Just Reloading? 🔁💥” 📅 Week of May 5–9, 2025 After breaking records with a fiery move into 3533, Gold just blinked. But is this the start of a deeper pullback — or simply a power nap before another skyrocket? Let’s break it down. 🧱 Macro Structure: 🔹 Massive bullish expansion from sub-2000 to 3533 → clear weekly BOS & continuation 🔹 First real retracement candle after months of nonstop gains 🔹 Price now hovering around the 3240–3270 mid-range FVG zone 🔑 Key Weekly Levels + Real Confluence: 📍 Price Range Zone Type What’s Here & Why It Matters 3533 🔺 ATH / Weak High Top liquidity grab + Premium high — supply reaction confirmed 3480–3510 ⚠ Reversal OB zone Weekly OB + clean FVG + sell-off origin = potential rejection zone 3240–3270 🔵 Micro Demand Mid-imbalance fill + minor OB + current retest base 3050–3100 🟦 Weekly Demand Block Big boy OB + 50% FIB retrace + macro HL zone → sniper reentry magnet 2750–2850 🧠 Strong HTF Demand Long-term CHoCH zone + discount imbalance stack = last line of defense 🔎 Weekly Confluences: ✅ SMC: BOS confirmed, CHoCH flipped in 2023 = macro bullish bias holds 📐 FIBO: 3050–3100 = perfect golden pocket (50%) of last full impulse 📊 EMA 5/21: Full bullish lock, no signs of EMA cross down 🔥 Liquidity: Above 3533 = final weak highs, below 3050 = deep liquidity pool 🧭 Bias Summary: Bullish overall, but watching for: A trap sell into 3050–3100 (clean sniper reentry zone) 🧲 Liquidity grab near 3300+ that could fuel another leg up or fakeout 🙏 Like this breakdown? Boost and follow us for sniper setups all week. 📌 Important Notice!!! The above analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always compare with your plan and wait for confirmation before taking action. #XAUUSD #GoldOutlook #SMC #LiquidityHunt #SmartMoneyFlow
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by GoldMindsFX
Gold fell as expected. What will happen next week?Gold fell within the range expected by Quid. Although it rebounded slightly, the final result did not change. Will the direction of gold change next week? Quid's analysis: Gold's 1-hour moving average is downward, and there is a trend of continuous downward development; gold is currently under pressure from the 3270 line, so 3270 will still be the key turning point for gold bears next week. Although gold has rebounded slightly, the magnitude of the decline is not large; if the upward resistance level of 3270 fails to break through next week, it may be in a sideways fluctuation. The downward trend will not reverse for the time being, unless major news is released on the weekend, which directly affects the gold market. Quid believes that the ups and downs of the market are normal. Gold has fallen by about $300 from its high point, and the overall trend in the near future is still downward; it continues to fall after a small rebound, which means that the strength of gold bears is still there. Quide believes that it is always easy to follow its trend; violating its rules always makes oneself exhausted; the market is always right, and standing on the opposite side of the market will always be taught a lesson by the market. In the face of the overall trend, traders should not be lucky, and the market will not forgive your mistakes again and again. Operation strategy: Short around 3270, stop loss at 3280, take profit around 3220;
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Quaid-1
The latest gold strategy analysis and operation guidance📌Fundamentals: This week, the US economic data was released intensively, and ADP employment, unemployment benefits, GDP and PCE price index were all bullish, but some data showed signs of weakness after Trump's tariff policy. The unemployment rate remained the same as the previous value of 4.2%, while the expected new employment of 130,000 was significantly lower than the previous value of 228,000. The market's concerns about the cooling of the economy provided support for the gold price. 📊Technical side: Although the 1-hour moving average is still in a dead cross short arrangement, there are signs of turning around. At the same time, after the rebound, gold began to consolidate at a high level instead of continuing to fall, so the momentum of the bears was weakened. So today's closing is critical. Today, gold fell back to around 3230 under pressure from 3270. In the short term, this is a balance range. You can see the shock in this range at night. If gold finally closes above 3270, then gold will most likely continue to rise next week. If it closes below 3240, then gold bears still have a great chance. If you want to operate in the short term, then don't chase it for the time being. Since it is a shock, you can go short first at a high level. If it breaks through 3270, then wait until next week. On the whole, today's short-term operation of gold suggests that the rebound is mainly short, and the callback is supplemented by long. The top short-term focus is on the first-line resistance of 3265-3270, and the bottom short-term focus is on the first-line support of 3200-3197. 🎯Practical strategies: Strategy 1: Go short when gold rebounds around 3263-3266, with a target around 3230-3210. Strategy 2: Go long when gold pulls back around 3197-3200, with a target around 3220-3230.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TP_Daniel5
Summary of the Gold Market This WeekThis week, the gold market showed a clear downward trend, with spot gold accumulating a 2.43% decline.👉👉👉 The economic data had a significant impact on the gold market this week. Data released by the US Department of Labor on the 2nd showed that the non - farm payroll employment in the US increased by 177,000 in April, much better than the expected 138,000, and the growth data for the previous two months were revised downwards. The US unemployment rate was 4.2% in April, in line with market expectations. The strong non - farm payroll data reduced the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in June. Under normal circumstances, the reduction in the interest rate hike expectation should be bullish for gold. However, the gold market did not rise sharply this time, mainly because the gold price had risen significantly in the early stage and the long - term investors had a strong sentiment of taking profits. At the same time, the relatively good employment data also reflected the resilience of the US economy to a certain extent, weakening the appeal of gold as a safe - haven asset. As a result, the gold price did not show an obvious upward trend immediately after the data was released. Instead, it remained volatile in the short term. From a technical perspective, although the gold price has declined this week, the futures price still has certain technical advantages in the near term. On the daily chart, although a negative candlestick was recorded this week, the previous upward trend has made the moving average system still show a long - term arrangement. From the perspective of the RSI, the current value is hovering around 50, indicating that the market's long and short forces are temporarily relatively balanced, and neither side has an obvious advantage. Therefore, the gold price has entered a consolidation stage. With the economic development in Asia and the changes in consumers' demand for gold investment and jewelry, Asia's influence in the global gold market has become increasingly prominent. If the demand in Asia remains strong in the future, it will provide strong support for the gold price. On the contrary, if the demand weakens, it may increase the downward pressure on the gold price. Looking ahead to next week, the gold market still faces many uncertainties. On the one hand, the continuous changes in economic data and the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remain key factors. If the subsequently released data continue to show the resilience of the US economy, it may further reduce the market's expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, thereby suppressing the gold price. On the other hand, any new development in the international trade situation may trigger fluctuations in the market's risk - averse sentiment, thus affecting the supply - demand relationship and price trend of gold.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Trading_Grorge
Gold trend layout in the evening after the release of NFP data🗞News side: 1. Pay attention to the recent trade situation and news about the Fed's interest rate cuts 2. Be wary of DXY trends 3. The situation of the Russian-Ukrainian war and the follow-up events of the India-Pakistan conflict 📈Technical aspects: The short orders in hand have already been profitable, and gold is now back near 3250, while the US dollar index has once again fallen by 100, reaching around 99.6, and the 1H moving average is currently showing signs of turning upward. The upper and lower shadow lines of the 1H K-line closing look like cross stars of equal length, which means that things may go wrong, and gold may rebound upwards in the short term. We can still focus on the resistance of 3260-3270 above, and further focus on the first-line resistance of 3280-3286, while the bottom has never been able to effectively break through the first-line support of 3240. If this week closes at 3240, then the market outlook next week will be conducive to long trading. Intraday operation suggestions 🎁SELL 3260-3270 🎁TP 3245-3240 🎁BUY 3230-3240 🎁TP 3260-3270 If you agree with this point of view, or you have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices. OANDA:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by AllenBoswell
The decisive battle day of major data (XAUUSD/GOLD) Yesterday, it was clearly pointed out that the pressure position after the rebound is 3255-3270. Today, due to the oversold influence of XAUUSD, it rebounded to a high of 3258. In terms of operation, it is still mainly chosen to sell. Today is the "third day" deadline. If the impact of geopolitics continues to be suspended. It is expected that XAUUSD will fall by $100/ounce today. There have been some oversold rebounds in the Asian market XAUUSD. Beware of the market's inducement to buy more. So 3260-3270 continues to be mainly sold. TP1 3230-3220. TP2 3170-3160
TVC:GOLDShort
by Band_analysis
XAU/USD (Gold) Analysis 2/5/20251. XAU/USD recently recorded an all-time high (ATH) at the 3150 level. 2. Following a healthy retracement, we are now eyeing potential long opportunities near the 3100 zone. 3. The 3100 level presents a favorable risk-reward entry point, aligned with historical support. 4. Market sentiment remains bullish, supported by strong fundamentals and ongoing geopolitical tensions. 5. A breakout above the previous ATH could open the door for a continued rally toward higher resistance levels. 6. Our upside targets for this move are in the range of 3450 to 3500, offering considerable profit potential. 7. Price consolidation near 3100 indicates accumulation, reinforcing the long bias. 8. We anticipate renewed buying pressure as the market tests key psychological and technical levels. 9. Risk management will be crucial, with stops ideally placed just below the 3050 support region. 10. Overall, this setup offers a compelling long trade backed by technical structure and market momentum.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by XAUUSD-Trade-ideas
7
Non-agriculture ended perfectly, Today’s closing is key!📌Fundamentals: The US April non-farm payrolls data (177,000 new jobs) exceeded expectations, reinforcing the Fed's expectations of a smaller rate cut. The market's expectations for rate cuts this year have been lowered from 90 basis points to 85 basis points, and the strengthening of the US dollar has suppressed gold prices. 📊Technical aspects: From the 4-hour analysis, gold fell after the negative news of non-farm payrolls today, but gold bottomed out and rebounded, and continued to fluctuate. It feels that non-farm payrolls have gradually lost its charm, and the market is not as good as usual. However, today's closing is very critical, and it is also the key to whether gold will turn around. The non-farm payrolls market has basically finished, and the upper side continues to pay attention to the suppression of 3260-68, focusing on the suppression of 3290-95 above, and the short-term support near 3235-3240 below. 🎯Practical strategies: 1. Go short when gold rebounds at 3260-65, cover short positions at 3378-85, and target 3240-3245.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TP_Daniel5
1
5/2 Gold Trading SignalsI'm very sorry that today's update is a little late because I'm traveling during the holiday. However, I have already told you about the trading strategy yesterday. The market changes are still in line with our expectations. Following the signal of selling in the 3260-3280 range, the returns should be good. Gold is now falling back. There is support near 3200, but the bears are strong at present, so it is still mainly selling. This decline is expected to fall below 3200, but because of the support, the possibility of a direct break is not very high. If it falls directly, there will definitely be at least one small rebound, roughly around 3210. So the transaction can be carried out like this: Buy in the 3194-3185 range Sell in the 3246-3258 range
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by China_MsWang
Non-agricultural prospective data analysis Operation suggestions📌Fundamentals: 📊Technical aspects: Technically, spot gold is in a downward trend in the short term, and there is a certain rebound or shock at the key support level. At the 4-hour level, the gold price is running above the lower track of the Bollinger Band, and the opening shows signs of contraction. The MACD indicator dead cross is gradually closing, and the RSI indicator is running in the 35-45 range, showing that the long and short forces are relatively balanced. 🎯Practical strategy: 3260-3270 light position short, target 3225-3200. When it reaches 3225-3200 and stabilizes, try to go long, target 3250-3270.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TP_Daniel5
Maintain shock and short position before non-agricultural📌Fundamentals: From the news perspective: the United States released a trade agreement and tariff reduction signal, the trade situation eased, resulting in a decline in market demand for safe-haven assets, triggering a sell-off in gold; the situation between Russia and Ukraine has eased, and the dawn of peace talks is approaching, which is a negative factor for gold; at the same time, the situation between India and Pakistan has heated up, which has supported the price of gold to a certain extent. 📊Technical aspects: In the past few days, we have been emphasizing that gold should be bearish, and warned that gold is likely to break and fall sharply. Gold, the general trend is as described in the continuous analysis. This round of price has fallen from the historical high of 3500. The first round of selling to 3260 rebounded to repair 3370; after rebounding to 3358 during the week, it weakened again, and the Asian market quickly sold off and fell below 3260. The subsequent analysis emphasized that the short-selling pattern of each cycle is good, and the shock bearish trend continued before the non-agricultural, and the target was adjusted to the parallel attack and defense range of 3193-3168; European and American markets fluctuated and were bearish, which is in line with expectations; short-term resistance 3221, 3226, strong resistance 3231-3235; short-term support 3212, strong support 3202; 🎯Practical strategy: It is recommended to rebound and sell: short near 3220-3230, target 10-15 points
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TP_Daniel5
XAU/USD 02 May 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025 Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday. Price is now trading within an established internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200. Note: With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment. Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. As mentioned in yesterday's analysis dated 01 May 2025 whereby I mentioned that I would continue to monitor price and depth of bullish pullback following the printing of a bearish iBOS followed by a bullish CHoCH. Price did not pullback significantly enough to warrant a further bearish iBOS, therefore, I will apply discretion and not classify this as such, I have however marked in red. Price has since continued bearish, subsequently printing a bullish CHoCH. Internal structure is now established, however, I will continue to monitor price regarding depth of pullback as previous. Intraday Expectation: Price to trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ, or M15 supply zone before targeting weak internal low priced at 3,201.955 Note: With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment. Trump's tariff announcement will most likely cause considerably increased volatility and whipsaws. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
Gold Bears Won Big – Here’s the Next Resistance to WatchYesterday was a great day for Gold bears – just as anticipated, price dropped nearly 1,000 pips and hit my target zone around 3200. After such a strong move, we’re now seeing a typical rebound, which might offer a fresh opportunity to sell into strength and ride the prevailing trend. 🔍 Key Zone: - 3270 now acts as resistance. - If price stalls here, it’s the ideal area to look for short entries targeting a retest of 3200. 🛠️ Plan: Sell spikes into 3270 resistance and stay with the trend.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDShort
by Mihai_Iacob
8
How to layout gold before non-agricultural data🗞News side: 1. Progress in Sino-US tariff negotiations: The United States has recently contacted China through multiple channels, releasing signals that a trade agreement may be reached. Market concerns about trade friction have significantly cooled down, weakening the safe-haven appeal of gold. 2. The U.S. non-farm payrolls report for April will be released today (expected to add 130,000 new jobs). If the data is weak, it may strengthen expectations for an interest rate cut. On the contrary, if it is stronger than expected, the interest rate cut schedule may be further delayed. 📈Technical aspects: Gold bottomed out yesterday and has now rebounded to around 3250. For the current market situation, the previous low of 3260-3270 has become an important resistance level above the gold price after the top-to-bottom conversion. In addition, non-agricultural data will be released in the U.S. market today. Therefore, if gold wants to reverse upward, the first resistance will be in the 3260-3270 range. If the counter pull from the bottom fails to stabilize at 3270, then there will be a downward trend. If it breaks through this resistance range, it may test the 3286 line. Before the release of non-agricultural data, the European market can be shorted when encountering resistance at 3260-3270. Everyone is waiting patiently for the opportunity to enter. The following focuses on the important support of 3200. If you agree with this point of view, or you have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by AllenBoswell
4-hour chart for XAUUSD (Gold Spot vs US Dollar)This is a 4-hour chart for XAUUSD (Gold Spot vs US Dollar) showing a technical analysis setup: 1. Current Price: Sell: 3,238.70 Buy: 3,239.00 2. Marked Levels: There's a red shaded area labeled "ENTRY ZONE" between 3,272.81 and 3,273.79. This zone likely acts as a resistance or pullback area where a sell entry is being considered. 3. Market Structure: Price previously moved up strongly (bullish), but now it’s forming lower highs and lower lows, indicating a bearish trend. A projected path is drawn showing that price might go back up into the entry zone and then drop further — with a potential target near 3,009.75. 4. Bias: The overall bias shown in the chart is bearish. It suggests a sell opportunity in the entry zone, expecting price to fall after a short-term pullback. If you want, I can help you build a full trade plan (entry, stop loss, and take profit) based on this chart too. Just let me know!
FX:XAUUSD
by m_zeeshan3644
This is a 4H chart of XAU/USD with multiple SMC annotations. 1. Chart Analysis Using Smart Money Concepts (SMC) SMC Structure Identified: • Major Break of Structure (BoS): Occurred above 3,240 → confirmed bullish intent. • Major Change of Character (CHoCH): Happened around 3,320 (last demand broken), indicating bearish shift. • FVG (Fair Value Gap): Marked just below the last day high — partially filled and then rejected. • Liquidity: Equal highs and lows around 3,327 and 3,200 respectively — potential liquidity targets. ⸻ 2. Marked Points in Chart • Last Day High / Low and Day High / Low are marked. • 50% Day Range at approx. 3,274 — currently acting as intraday resistance. • OB Zone around 3,214–3,218 (a critical support zone that may act as re-entry or rejection point). • FVG Zone near 3,284 — unmitigated imbalance that price could revisit. ⸻ 3. Swing High & Low of the Day • Swing High: ~3,327.72 (day/session high). • Swing Low: ~3,214.31 (day/session low). • These define the current internal liquidity pool. ⸻ 4. Trade Direction • 4H Trend: Bearish, post CHoCH and major OB break. • Bias: Bearish, as price is below FVG and below 50% of the daily range. OB is being respected and lower highs are forming. • Intra-Day Opportunity: Possible short setups unless price closes strongly above 3,284–3,287 zone. ⸻ 5. Best Risk-Reward Setup (Swing/Intraday) Scenario: Price retests FVG/OB at 3,284–3,287 and rejects. • Entry: 3,284.00 (inside FVG) • SL: 3,288.50 (above supply zone & equal highs) • TP1: 3,214.00 (last day low) • TP2: 3,200.00 (liquidity sweep & OB retest zone) • RRR: • To TP1: ~1:3 • To TP2: ~1:4.5 ⸻ 6. Trade Setups by Timeframe 5-Minute Setup: • Look for CHoCH near 3,284.00 zone. • Entry: On bearish engulfing or internal BOS. • SL: Above 3,288.00. • TP: 3,214.00 (previous low). 1-Hour Setup: • Wait for 1H candle rejection at FVG or last day’s high. • Entry: 3,284–3,287. • SL: 3,290. • TP1: 3,214.00. • TP2: 3,200.00. 4-Hour Setup: • Use higher timeframe OB for re-entry. • Look for price closing below 3,214.00 → opens short continuation toward 3,160 or deeper (OB at 3,100). • Swing Trade Setup: Short from 3,284.00 → SL 3,290 → TP 3,100–3,080 (RRR: ~1:6). ⸻ 7. CRT Model Evaluation • C – Context: HTF structure shifted bearish after CHoCH; price rejected FVG and supply zones. * ⁠R – Retracement: Price retraced into OB and FVG in premium, providing a sell opportunity. • T – Trend Continuation: If 3,214 breaks cleanly, expect continuation toward 3,160 and possibly 3,100. ⸻ Summary • Bias: Bearish under 3,284–3,287 zone. • Key Levels to Watch: • Resistance: 3,284–3,287 (FVG + OB). • Support: 3,214–3,200 (liquidity pool + OB). • Best Trade: Short from FVG zone on confirmation with TP at day low and deeper OBs.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by shivamfx