Elliott Wave Analysis – Trading Strategy Update | June 10, 2025
Currently, the market is presenting multiple wave scenarios with nearly equal probabilities. To avoid noise and gain clarity, we are shifting our analysis to the H4 timeframe.
🔹 Key Price Zone
As highlighted in yesterday’s update, the 3340 level remains a critical resistance. Price failed to break above this level and has since pulled back to 3307.
🔹 Momentum & Volume Profile
- H4 Momentum: Just one more H4 candle and the momentum indicator will likely enter the oversold zone, suggesting that the bearish momentum is weakening.
- Volume Profile: Price is clearly reacting at the green POC zone, with no signs of a breakdown yet.
🧩 Two Main Scenarios:
Scenario 1: Wave 5 Continues Lower
Price is potentially forming wave 5, with:
🎯 Target 1: 3290
🎯 Target 2: 3279
✅ Confirmation: Break below 3294
⚠️ Note: This is the most obvious scenario, and in trading, what’s most obvious often requires the most caution.
Scenario 2: Correction Completed – Wave 3 Uptrend Forming
- The black ABC correction has likely completed.
- The recent upward move could be wave 1; the current pullback is wave 2.
- Wave 3 is expected next.
✅ Necessary Condition: Price breaks above 3340
✅ Sufficient Condition: Price breaks the top of wave b (black)
➡️ For this scenario, limit orders may not be effective — real-time confirmation will be required.
📉 Momentum Overview:
- D1 Timeframe: Approaching oversold territory — likely to see a recovery over the next 5–7 daily candles.
- H4 Timeframe: Also nearing oversold — an intraday bounce is expected today.
🎯 Trading Plan:
🔵 Buy Zone 1:
Entry: 3292 – 3289
Stop Loss: 3282
TP1: 3306
TP2: 3340
TP3: 3375
🔵 Buy Zone 2:
Entry: 3281 – 3279
Stop Loss: 3271
TP1: 3307
TP2: 3340
TP3: 3375
