XAUUSD: The risk of shorting is less than that of going long
After finding support around 2638, gold has rebounded and is now approaching the critical resistance zone at 2663-2668. If prices linger here without breaking through, it could weaken the bullish momentum.
From a trading perspective, the risk of going long at the current price outweighs that of shorting. For those entering long positions, caution is advised—avoid overextending and close positions promptly if the previous high isn’t breached. As for shorts, the risk is manageable; smaller initial positions can be opened, with the option to add more if prices rise. In the medium term, I believe a break below 2600 is inevitable.
Xauusdupdates
XAU/USD 15 October 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Analysis/Bias remains the same as analysis dated 13 October 2024.
As mentioned in my analysis dated 09 October 2024, price could print lower to bring CHoCH positioning closer to current price action, as the previous CHoCH positioning was quite distant. This is exactly how price has moved.
Price is currently positioned in the premium above the 50% equilibrium (EQ).
Intraday Expectation: Price is expected to react at the premium of the 50% EQ or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal low.
I advise caution due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and the Fed's dovish stance. However, we will remain systematic in our approach.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
As mentioned in yesterday's intraday expectation that due to significant narrowing of the internal range, coupled with the fact that price is in premium of 50% EQ of the H4 internal range, I would not be surprised if price printed a bearish iBOS.
This is how price printed, printing a bearish iBOS.
Price has printed a bullish CHoCH indicating bullish pullback phase initiation with price currently reacting to a well positioned M15 supply zone.
Intraday Expectation: Price is expected to target weak internal low.
M15 Chart:
Gold's upward trend is confirmed, buy boldly on pullbacksLast Friday, gold continued to rise, reaching a high of 2661, as the US PPI data showed that the inflation outlook was still favorable to support the Fed's expectations of a rate cut next month.
From the daily chart, we can see that the gold price has now stabilized above the daily average line, and the bullish trend has continued. In the short term, as long as the gold price pulls back to the support area, it is an opportunity to buy. Now it depends on where the gold price will start to rise.
From the 1H chart, the nearest support below is around 2642, which is the 0.618 position of the Fibonacci retracement of this rise, and the second is around 2630.
In today's Asian and European trading period, the gold price pulled back to 2643 and started to rise, which has verified the support strength of the 0.618 position. Therefore, if there is no accident today, as long as it pulls back here, you can buy boldly.
My personal short position sold at 2653 last Friday has been closed with profit when it fell to 2645. Now I am waiting for the pullback to trade long positions.
10.14 XAUUSD Trading StrategyXAUUSD has just started to rise as scheduled this week. First harvest a wave of investors who shorted last week. This week is a popular start. XAUUSD still has momentum in the short-term rise, the golden hourly moving average continues to rise, and the gold bulls still have momentum, and the decline continues to go long. After all, the current international political situation still supports gold to have the motivation to rise!
However, from the technical perspective, XAUUSD has become a box trend. Judging from the current market trend, we pay attention to the short-term support level of the first line of 2635-40 below, and the first line of 2665-70 above. Breaking through this position is expected to continue to win the high position, and even hit the threshold position of the first line of 2700, so in operation, we need to follow the trend closely and don't chase orders at will!
XAUUSD operation strategy
1. XAUUSD bounces back to the first line of 2665-2670, the stop loss is 2676, and the target is 2635-2640
2. XAUUSD retraces the first line of 2640-45 and does not break the long line, the stop loss is 2633, and the target is 2660-65
XAUUSD:Trading around 2638-2663 during the day
Following its drop to the 2600 level, gold has found solid support and rebounded strongly, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions. Prices are now trading back above the 2650 mark.
In the short term, attention should be focused on the 2643-2638 support zone. On the upside, key resistance remains near the recent highs, particularly around 2658.
This week's daily close (1D) will be pivotal. Should we continue to see bearish candles without a break above the previous highs, a significant downturn is likely next week or in early next month. This correction is expected to extend over several weeks, shifting from intraday moves to more sustained declines.
We must also closely monitor the global political landscape. If tensions escalate further, there is a strong possibility of gold breaching the 2700 level. However, if conditions stabilize, we can anticipate a drop below 2550 within the next month.
XAUUSD GOLD: Understanding Trend Shifts for Precision Entries👀👉 In this video, we explore the inner workings of market trends and, more importantly, how smart money manipulates price action to sweep liquidity, allowing them to place their orders and sustain the trend. We also showcase a powerful, free indicator from TradingView’s extensive toolset. Here's what we cover:
📊 Understanding Trends: How trends truly operate in the market.
💰 Smart Money Tactics: How institutional traders manipulate price action to sweep liquidity and execute large orders.
🔑 Key Levels: Identifying crucial accumulation and distribution zones to approach potential trade setups effectively.
🛠 TradingView Indicators: Learn how to access tools that help spot when price is overextended.
🔎 Market Structure: Discover how to locate resting liquidity and anticipate price reactions, understanding the role of liquidity in market movement.
📈 Trade Setups: Using a practical approach, we examine price interactions with liquidity, blending Wyckoff theory and ICT concepts for sharper trade decisions.
Disclaimer: This video is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Trading involves significant risks. Be sure to conduct your own research before making any decisions. Trade responsibly.
XAUUSD Top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
Gold May Rise to 2675.00 - 2685.00 (READ DESCRIPTION)Gold May Rise to 2675.00 - 2685.00
Pivot Point: 2643.00
The pivot at 2643.00 is a key support level. As long as the price stays above this level, the bullish trend is favored.
Primary Strategy (Our Preference):
Entry Point: Long positions as long as the price remains above 2643.00.
Target Levels:
2675.00: The first upside target, marking a continuation of the bullish trend.
2685.00: A higher target, representing an extended move higher.
Alternative Scenario:
If the price drops below 2643.00, look for a bearish turn.
Entry Point: Below 2643.00, initiate short positions.
Target Levels:
2636.00: The first downside target if the pivot is broken.
2628.00: The next support level, indicating further potential downside.
Technical Outlook:
RSI Indicator: The RSI is bullish, indicating strong upward momentum and supporting the continuation of the current trend.
MACD Indicator: Although not mentioned here, the bullish trend is reinforced by momentum indicators like the RSI.
Moving Averages: The price is expected to be above its key moving averages, signaling further upside potential.
Market Dynamics:
A sustained move above 2643.00 keeps the focus on the upside targets of 2675.00 and 2685.00.
A break below the pivot at 2643.00 would shift focus to the downside targets of 2636.00 and 2628.00.
Gold- New all time high this week?Last week, OANDA:XAUUSD fell below the key support level of 2625-2630, briefly testing the area just above the important psychological support at 2600, which also aligns with the ascending trendline.
However, the bulls held strong, and after two failed attempts to push below this level, we saw a sharp reversal on Thursday, marked by a bullish engulfing pattern and a strong close on Friday. This erased the earlier losses from the start of the week.
These are clear bullish signals, suggesting we may see further upside movement and potentially a new all-time high this week.
My strategy is to buy on dips.
XAUUSD 14/10/2024 price and will continue to increase?
Looking at H1, we see that the price has just completed a 5-wave structure 1 2 3 4 5 as I have labeled on the chart
- Following a 5-wave structure will be a 3-wave correction structure
- Looking at the current price line, I see that the price has likely completed wave A in the ABC structure and is currently completing wave B
- The target for completing wave B is the price zone of 2654 - 2657, which could be a very good SELL target price zone
- If the price breaks through the price zone of 2661, it will confirm that our current wave-down process is not correct, and then we will have an extended wave 3 structure and the peak of wave 3 will coincide with the current wave 5. then we will have the target price zone 2670 - 2673 is the target price zone for the correction
- Regarding the target of the end of the correction wave, I measured 2 target price zones, which are the zone 2632 - 2629 and the price zone 2613 - 2610, this is the target price for the end of the correction wave
- we have an important price zone 2606, if the price breaks below this zone, it confirms that the uptrend has not started yet and the price continues the correction process, then I will have the correction targets
Intraday trading plan
SELL ZONE: 2670 - 2673
SL: 2680
TP1: 2662
TP2: 2653
TP3: 2637
BUY ZONE: 2632 - 2629
SL: 2627
TP1: 2653
TP2: 2661
TP3: 2670
BUY ZONE 2613 - 2610
SL: 2603
TP1: 2624
TP2: 2637
TP3: 2661
XAU/USD 14-18 October 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis:
Swing Structure: Bullish.
Internal Structure: Bullish.
Price has continued to print all-time highs and surge, with no signs of bearish pullback phase initiation.
The first indication of a pullback would be price printing a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), marked by a blue dotted line.
Price has continued to rise, and CHoCH positioning remains unchanged from the analysis dated 22 September 2024.
Weekly Chart:
Daily Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has printed a bullish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS) and continued its upward surge, driven by soft U.S. macroeconomic data and increasing geopolitical tensions.
Following the bullish iBOS, a bearish pullback is anticipated, though there are no current signs of it materializing.
The first indication, but not a confirmation, of a pullback would be price printing a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH). Since last week's analysis, CHoCH positioning has remained unchanged.
The bearish CHoCH level is denoted by a blue dotted line.
Daily Chart:
H4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
As mentioned in my analysis dated 09 October 2024, price could print lower to bring CHoCH positioning closer to current price action, as the previous CHoCH positioning was quite distant. This is exactly how price has moved.
Price is currently positioned in the premium above the 50% equilibrium (EQ).
Intraday Expectation: Price is expected to react at the premium of the 50% EQ or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal low.
I advise caution due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and the Fed's dovish stance. However, we will remain systematic in our approach.
H4 Chart:
XAU/USD longs from 2,620.000 back up The outlook for Gold looks promising as we are now aligned with the pro trend. I’ve observed a clear character change to the upside, along with accumulation on the higher time frame, signaling that price is ready for a potential rally.
Currently, I’ll be waiting for price to retrace slightly, sweeping the untouched Asia low and tapping into my marked demand zone. At this level, I’ll be looking for confirmation on the lower time frames before targeting the trendline liquidity, particularly near the all-time highs (ATHs).
Confluences for Gold Buys:
- Market Structure: Both higher and lower time frames are strongly bullish.
- Wyckoff Accumulation: Price has formed a Wyckoff accumulation pattern on the higher time frame, indicating a trend shift.
- CHOCH: A change of character (CHOCH) has occurred on the 4-hour chart, confirming a directional shift.
- Liquidity: Significant upside liquidity in the form of trendline liquidity, with ATHs in view.
- Key Demand Zone: A strong daily demand zone caused the structure shift, making it my primary point of interest (POI) for the week.
P.S. If this demand zone fails, I’ll be looking for a potential long setup forming around the 10-hour demand zone. New ATHs possible?
Break ! Gold recovered unexpectedly after CPI news⭐️Smart investment, Strong finance
⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Gold prices regained some ground on Thursday, rising 0.67% during the North American session following a hotter-than-expected US inflation report, balanced by weaker jobs data. However, hawkish remarks from a Federal Reserve (Fed) official limited gold’s gains. XAU/USD is trading at $2,624, rebounding from a daily low of $2,603.
While US inflation for August was slightly higher than anticipated, soft job data provided some relief. The US Department of Labor reported more unemployment claims than expected, raising the possibility of more aggressive Fed rate cuts.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
Gold price creates CHOCH in H1 frame - structural change from decreasing to increasing. Gold price recovered. Pay attention to the resistance zones: 2652, 2668
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $2628 - $2626 SL $2623 scalping
TP1: $2634
TP2: $2640
TP3: $2650
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $2605 - $2603 SL $2598
TP1: $2615
TP2: $2622
TP3: $2633
🔥SELL GOLD zone: $2668 - $2670 SL $2675
TP1: $2660
TP2: $2650
TP3: $2640
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
- The winner is the one who sticks with the market the longest
XAUUSD: Can the rebound last? Where to enterYesterday, when most people in the market were still bearish, I clearly pointed out that gold had a bottom divergence pattern and bought in the 2605-2615 area. Friends who followed the copy signal made a lot of profit!
The most important data this week are yesterday's CPI and initial jobless claims data. Among them, the CPI data all exceeded expectations. The data did not meet expectations, which was bearish at first glance, but you can analyze it yourself. You can compare the previous value with the published value, which is bullish for gold. In addition, the number of initial and continued unemployment claims rose sharply at the same time, reflecting the signs of weakness in the US job market.
The trend of gold prices also fell to the 2605 support level after the data was released, and then rose rapidly. The current highest price is 2647 US dollars.
From the chart, the current support area is in the 2624-2630 area, and the upper resistance is near 2653, which is also the 0.618 position of the Fibonacci retracement.
Now the price is running at 2637. When the price runs between the support and resistance, everyone knows that I will not participate because the risk is relatively large.
Therefore, today I will give you two options for your reference, and I will implement them when the time comes.
The first option is to wait for a pullback to the 2624-2630 support area and buy bullishly. The upper target is 2640-2645 first, followed by 2660-2670
The second option is to choose to short near 2653, with the target of 2630-2624, followed by 2605
Whichever one arrives first, I will resolutely implement it, and I think the possibility of the second one is not great, so I am more optimistic about the first option, and what about you?
Gold Price Rally Continues: The Safe Haven InvestmentGold prices have been experiencing a consistent upward trend. This move has further solidified gold's position as a sought-after investment, particularly during economic uncertainty. As prices continue to hit new records, the yellow metal remains an attractive asset for investors seeking both security and potential returns.
The allure of gold as a safe-haven investment is well-established. In periods of market volatility or economic turmoil, investors often turn to gold as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. Its physical nature, unlike stocks or bonds, provides a tangible asset that can be held onto during times of crisis. Additionally, gold's limited supply and increasing demand from emerging markets have contributed to its upward price trend.
Beyond its role as a haven, gold has also been gaining popularity as an investment asset. Many investors view gold as a long-term store of value, believing that its price will appreciate over time. While there are periods of volatility, the overall trend has been upward, particularly in recent years. Gold can also be a diversifier in an investment portfolio, helping reduce overall risk.
The continued rise in gold prices has also spurred interest in gold-backed investments. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that track the price of gold have become increasingly popular, offering investors a convenient and liquid way to invest in the precious metal. These ETFs can be bought and sold on stock exchanges, making them accessible to more investors.
However, it's important to note that investing in gold is not without its risks. While gold has historically been a good hedge against inflation, there are no guarantees of future price appreciation. Economic conditions, geopolitical events, and changes in investor sentiment can all impact the price of gold. Investors need to do their research and consider their risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.
In conclusion, gold continues to be a highly sought-after investment asset. Its reputation as a safe haven, coupled with recent price increases and the reduction in customs rates, has made it even more appealing to investors. Whether as a hedge against inflation, a long-term store of value, or a diversifier in an investment portfolio, gold offers a unique set of benefits. However, it's important to approach gold investing with a long-term perspective and a thorough understanding of the risks involved.
Gold Retracement Opportunity: Targeting Key Fib Levels!Currently, Gold (XAU/USD) is poised for a potential retracement towards the 0.5 FibCloud level after covering all the price imbalances. We have key targets mapped out with multiple take-profit (TP) levels as the price retraces. Technically, we are seeing a well-formed structure, with price rejection near the upper channel resistance, and the overall trend indicating a likely pullback to mitigate recent upward movement.
Key technical levels :
• TP1: 2,634
• TP2: 2,628
• TP3: 2,620
Risk Management:
This trade setup provides favorable risk-reward metrics, but it’s essential to maintain disciplined risk management. Stop loss (SL) is placed just above the upper boundary near recent highs to minimize downside exposure. It is advisable to take partials as the price hits respective TP levels, securing profits while reducing exposure. Be prepared to adjust stop losses to break-even or beyond as the trade moves in our favor, ensuring we protect capital and lock in gains.
Conclusion :
This trade offers a strategic entry for traders looking to capitalize on a potential gold retracement, given the technical alignment and FibCloud setup. As always, risk management is key in navigating market volatility, especially during news-sensitive periods.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
XAUUSD | GOLDSPOT | New perspective | follow-up detailGold prices took a hit after a stronger-than-expected US jobs report, signalling a resilient labour market and likely gradual Federal Reserve (Fed) policy easing with 25-basis-point rate cuts. This data boosted the US 10-year Treasury yield by 12 basis points to 3.971%, putting downward pressure on XAUUSD.
Next week’s key events include the US inflation data, jobless claims, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. Plus, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could offer support to gold prices as conflicts involving Hezbollah, Iran, Israel, and the US unfold.
Can gold challenge the $2,700 mark this week?
XAUUSD Technical Overview:
This week, we're focusing on the $2,630 zone. This could be a make-or-break point. If gold stays above this zone: Bulls might maintain control, potentially pushing prices higher and setting up new highs. If gold drops below the zone, Bears might gain the upper hand in an attempt to retrace into the structure-support line of the ascending channel. Join me as we explore these factors and potential opportunities in the gold market. Like, subscribe, and hit the notification bell for the latest analysis and insights!
📌 Follow my journey as I map out the next moves in this dynamic market!
#GoldMarket #FedRateCuts #USData #GoldTrading #ForexAnalysis #GoldForecast #EconomicOutlook #TradingStrategies #InvestingInGold #MarketUpdates📺🔔💼
Disclaimer Notice:
Trading in the foreign exchange market and other instruments carries a high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content provided here is for educational purposes only. Evaluate your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
XAU/USD 11 October 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Intraday expectation/Bias remains the same as analysis dated 09 October 2024.
Analysis dated 06 October 2024 was accurate, with price targeting the weak internal low and printing a bearish iBOS.
We are now trading between an internal high and fractal low.
CHoCH positioning is still quite a distance from current price, so it’s possible that price may print new lows to bring CHoCH closer to current price.
Intraday Expectation: Price is expected to print a bullish CHoCH to indicate the initiation of a bullish pullback phase, keeping the above scenario in mind.
I advise caution due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and the Fed's dovish stance. However, we will remain systematic in our approach.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Intraday expectation/Bias remains the same as analysis dated 09 October 2024.
Analysis (08 October 2024) was accurate, with price pulling back, printing a bullish Change of Character (CHoCH), reacting at the premium of the 50% internal equilibrium (EQ), and then targeting weak internal low, ultimately printing a bearish iBOS.
We are now trading between an internal high and fractal low.
Intraday Expectation: Price is expected to print a bullish CHoCH, indicating the initiation of a bullish pullback phase. Bullish CHoCH positioning is marked with a blue dotted line.
Price is likely to react at the premium of the 50% EQ or the M15 supply zone before targeting the weak internal low.
M15 Chart:
XAUUSD 10/11/2024 Will gold price drop further?
Looking at H1 we see
- The price has re-entered the 2624 zone, which is the bottom zone of wave W, so we have the necessary conditions to say that the correction trend has ended
- The sufficient condition for the trend to end is when the price breaks through the peak zone of wave X, which is the 2674 zone
- In the case when the price continues to go below the 2624 zone, we will have the correction trend has not ended because then the price is likely to continue to decrease to the next target zone, which is the 2591 zone and the 2571 zone
About the intraday trading plan
We rely on the Volumprofie zone to determine potential supply and demand zones
- In this price zone, we have two potential demand zones, the 2624 - 2621 price zone and the 2613 - 2610 price zone, which will be our BUY target
- We also have two major supply zones, the 2648 - 2651 zone and the zone 2670 - 2673 is the zone we use to SELL
Specific trading plan
SELL ZONE: 2648 - 2651
SL: 2643
TP1: 2637
TP2: 2624
SELL ZONE: 2670 - 2673
SL: 2680
TP 1: 2662
TP2: 2653
BUY ZONE 2624 - 2621
SL: 2619
TP1: 2637
TP2: 2653
BUY ZONE: 2613 - 2610
SL: 2603
TP1: 2624
TP2: 2637
Gold has a bottom divergence, buy at the low todayThe US dollar continued to rise this week and has now risen to a two-month high. Gold also fell for the sixth consecutive trading day yesterday, and the lowest point of 2605 was tested many times, but it still did not fall below.
Therefore, from the current trend, it is not possible to continue to short, because the support of the 2605 line is very strong, and after the precipitation of the past few days, the short-selling force has also weakened a lot.
At the same time, it can be seen from the figure that the price trend is falling, but the MACD indicator is continuing to strengthen, which obviously forms a bottom divergence pattern, which is a bullish signal.
From the 1H chart, the upper suppression point is in the 2630-2640 area, and the lower support is 2605-2615.
So today's trading strategy is to buy in the support area and target the upper resistance area