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XAUUSD: Lows not yet seen, continue to sell at high levelsYesterday, the US dollar index began to rise after Powell's speech, reaching 100.9, and US bond yields also rebounded collectively. Affected by the rise of the US dollar and US bond yields, as well as the influx of a large amount of profit-taking funds into the Chinese stock market, gold has continued to fall recently, and yesterday's lowest point reached 2624 US dollars. So is this the low point? I think gold is currently in a downward trend and has not yet formed a bottom pattern. It will only rebound but not reverse. From the trend in the hourly chart, we can see that the gold price is running along the downward trend channel. Now it is again above the trend channel of 2645, so I think the possibility of a breakthrough is not great, so I am going to short around 2645.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by AntonyTP
XAU/USD 01 October 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. The price has continued its surge, reaching all-time highs with minimal pullbacks. The bearish swing pullback phase has now been confirmed by a bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS), which also establishes the swing range. Currently, we are trading between the swing high and the fractal low. In yesterday's analysis, I noted that the internal range had narrowed significantly, allowing the price to confirm the swing pullback phase by printing the bearish iBOS. This is now reflected in the price action. Intraday Expectation: We expect the initiation of a bullish pullback phase, indicated by a bullish Change of Character (CHoCH), denoted with a blue dotted line. However, since the bullish CHoCH is positioned in the premium zone, confirmation of the internal low will only occur if the price retraces to the 50% equilibrium (EQ). H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: Price met expectations by targeting a weak internal low and printing a bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS). As previously mentioned, price action has been erratic due to ongoing macroeconomic data and heightened geopolitical tensions. Since the last analysis, price printed another bearish iBOS, followed by a bullish iBOS after reacting from an M15 demand zone. Recent bearish Change of Character (CHoCH) suggests the potential initiation of a bearish pullback phase, though this is not confirmation but an indication. I will closely monitor this as the CHoCH positioning is near the internal high, requiring discretionary judgement. Intraday Expectation: Price is expected to target the 50% equilibrium or the M15 supply zone before aiming for a weak internal high. It's important to remain cautious, as the H4 timeframe has confirmed swing pullback phase with a bearish iBOS, which may limit upside momentum. With rising geopolitical tensions, Gold is likely to remain highly volatile in the short term. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
Tuesday Market Analysis and SignalsIn the Asian market on Tuesday, gold fluctuated in a narrow range and is currently trading around $2,642 per ounce. The price of gold fell by nearly 1% on Monday, and once lost the 2,630 mark during the session, which is exactly where the 10-day moving average support is located. It is also the lowest since September 24. Because the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is hawkish, the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in November have been reduced. The rebound of the US dollar and US Treasury yields has put pressure on gold prices to pull back. However, the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and the entry of most central banks in the world into a cycle of interest rate cuts still provide support for gold! Driven by the loose monetary policy of the United States and the intensification of tensions in the Middle East, gold has experienced a historic rise recently. In the third quarter of 2024, gold has risen by more than 13%. Last Thursday, it hit a record high of $2,685, which was mainly driven by the Federal Reserve's half-percentage point cut and the outbreak of war in the Middle East. It should be reminded that when the rise in gold prices is blocked, investors need to beware of the risk of further correction in gold prices. The Eurozone September CPI data will be released on this trading day. Investors need to pay attention to it, focusing on the US September ISM manufacturing PMI, the US August JOLTs job vacancy data, and the news related to the geopolitical situation. Continue to pay attention to the speeches of Fed officials. Gold closed sharply higher on the monthly line, with the long upper shadow 2685/2680 historical high forming a short-term effective high resistance. The daily line fell back yesterday after a high rise and adjusted to the MA10 daily moving average at 2664. The short-term four-hour chart Bollinger band opened downward and the price was in the middle and lower track channel of the Bollinger band. The RSI indicator broke through the middle axis 50 and turned downward. The hourly moving average bonded the price Bollinger band and narrowed. Gold traded high and bought low on Tuesday! Asian trading strategy: 2622-2624 long, stop loss 2613, target 2640-2650; 2643-2645 short, stop loss 2654, target 2620-2610;
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Jun-goldFX
Gold’s Correction: Signals to Watch for the Next RallyLast week, I suggested that Gold would experience a pullback at some point. However, this wasn't a prediction of a trend reversal, but rather a temporary correction following its extended upward move. On Friday, Gold did indeed decline, reaching an intraday low in the 2643 zone. Now the key question is: Has the correction ended? In my view, there is still potential for a further dip, with the next leg of the correction possibly pushing Gold down to around 2630, which could present an ideal buying opportunity. In this scenario, Bulls may look for entry points and aim for the recent highs. Additionally, a break above the Asian session high could indicate the correction is over, marking the 2645 zone as the bottom
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mihai_Iacob
7
XAU/USD 30 September 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: Intraday analysis/bias remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 29 September 2024. -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has continued to surge in price printing all time highs with price pulling back very minimally. Price has printed a further bullish iBOS. Bearish CHoCH has been printed indicating bearish pullback phase initiation. We also have established an internal range. You will note the internal range has extensively narrowed, allowing price to confirm swing pullback phase by printing bearish iBOS. However, we remain bullish. Although price has tapped in to strong internal low, price has been unable to close below Intraday expectation: Price to target weak internal high, however, due to the narrowing of the internal range and all HTF's requiring pullback, it would not be unrealistic if price prints a bearish iBOS. H4 Chart: M15 analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. Last week's intraday expectation (27 September 2024): In my previous analysis, I mentioned an alternative scenario where, due to all higher time frames (HTFs) requiring a pullback, it would not be surprising if the price printed a bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS). This is exactly what transpired, with the price printing a bearish iBOS. This marks the first bearish iBOS since 18 September 2024, confirming the swing structure. Following the bearish iBOS, the price has now printed a bullish Change of Character (CHoCH), indicating a potential shift in momentum. Currently, the price is contained within an internal range and is trading in the premium zone above the 50% equilibrium (EQ) of that range. Intraday Expectation: The price is expected to react at the M15 supply level before potentially targeting a weak internal low. With rising geopolitical tensions, Gold is likely to remain highly volatile in the near term. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAUUSD 30/9/2024 Has the uptrend started?Looking at H1 we see that the 5-wave uptrend structure has been completed and we are now in an ABC correction structure The target of this correction I expect to end at the 2607 zone. At that time we can execute a long-term BUY order to continue the uptrend. - The process of price completing the correction wave target needs to absorb strong demand zones along the way. These are the targets for us to be able to BUY short-term by day. - Looking at the Volume profile, we see that there are 2 important demand zones that need to be considered, which are the 2639 - 2636 zone and the 2625 - 2622 zone. These are the border zones where the price is pushed up, so they will be the zones that the BUY side will protect when the price returns, and to break these zones, an absorption process is required and we will take advantage of this to proceed to BUY up. - After completing the adjustment, when the price breaks the peak zone of 2686, confirming that the adjustment process is complete, I then measure the target of the uptrend wave with the first resistance zone at the 2700 zone and above it is the 2738 - 2741 zone. This is also our important SELL target zone. - In which we pay attention to an important zone of 2674, this is a strong supply zone, we can consider SELLing in this zone. SELL ZONE: 2670 - 2673 SL: 2660 TP1: 2651 TP2: 2641 SELL ZONE: 2697 - 2700 SL: 2707 TP1: 2684 TP2: 2674 TP3: 2655 BUY ZONE: 2639 - 2636 SL: 2629 TP1: 2655 TP2: 2674 TP3: 2684
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by DEEKOP
Monday Market Analysis and SignalsSpot gold fluctuated in a narrow range in the Asian market on Monday, and is currently trading at $2,653 per ounce. Gold prices fell 0.5% last Friday. After the release of the US PCE data, some bulls took profits, dragging down the price of gold. As the United States began to implement loose monetary policies to boost the attractiveness of gold, gold prices have set new historical highs in recent trading days, and the weekly line still closed higher, with three consecutive weekly gains. The third quarter is expected to be the best quarter in more than eight years. In addition, the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East also provides safe-haven support for gold. Several historical highs were set last week, highlighting investors' strong expectations for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Investors' interest has been rekindled as lower interest rates have weakened the transaction costs of gold. As an interest-free asset, gold is more attractive in an interest rate cut environment, pushing gold prices up by about 14% this quarter, the best quarterly performance since 2016. The US September NFP report will be released this week, and investors need to pay close attention. In addition, they need to pay close attention to news related to the geopolitical situation, pay attention to the performance of global stock markets and changes in risk aversion. This trading day needs to focus on the speech delivered by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at the National Association for Business Economics. However, it should be reminded that this trading day is the last trading day in September and the last trading day in the third quarter. Investors also need to beware of the possibility of abnormal market fluctuations caused by dealer position adjustments. Technical aspect Technically, the gold daily and weekly lines still maintain a good trend bullish structure, and the price runs around the bullish rising trend channel. At present, the daily line rises above 2685, and the long volume is released, and the indicator is stagnant and overbought, forming a short-term correction and repair, and the daily line forms a red and blue alternating closing. The price continues to maintain the MA10/7-day moving average at 2650/2627, opening upward and gradually moving up. The short-term four-hour chart retreated to the lower track of the Bollinger band on Friday to form a bottoming rebound. The technical trading ideas of gold remain unchanged and the trend is mainly low and long! Use 2643 as a long stop loss to participate in long positions, and the upper suppression points are 2675 and 2685
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Jun-goldFX
XAU/USD 30 September - 04 October 2024Weekly Analysis: Swing Structure: Bullish. Internal Structure: Bullish. Price has continued to print all time highs and surge with no indication of bearish pullback phase initiation. The first indication of pullback will be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted with a blue dotted line. Price has continued higher with CHoCH positioning remaining the same as last week's analysis dated 22 September 2024. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a bullish iBOS and continued it's surge in price lead by soft US macroeconomics and increasing geopolitical tensions. After bullish iBOS we expect bearish pullback, which, at the moment, is not showing any signs of printing. First indication, but not confirmation of pullback is for price to print a bearish CHoCH. Since last week's analysis, CHoCH positioning has remained unchanged. Bearish CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue doted line. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has continued to surge in price printing all time highs with price pulling back very minimally. Price has printed a further bullish iBOS. Bearish CHoCH has been printed indicating bearish pullback phase initiation. We also have established an internal range. You will note the internal range has extensively narrowed, allowing price to confirm swing pullback phase by printing bearish iBOS. However, we remain bullish. Although price has tapped in to strong internal low, price has been unable to close below Intraday expectation: Price to target weak internal high, however, due to the narrowing of the internal range and all HTF's requiring pullback, it would not be unrealistic if price prints a bearish iBOS. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
Gold, is rally over?Gold Market Analysis: Gold has been in a strong rally since the beginning of the year, with only one minor negative month interrupting an otherwise consistent upward trend. Over the past year, the rally has been quite aggressive, but given the current market conditions, I would refrain from considering long-term positions at this point. Instead, short-term scalping or intraday trades seem to offer better opportunities for this instrument. Technical Outlook: From a technical perspective, XAU/USD appears to be in a range-bound market. Recently, we’ve seen a deviation from the bottom of this range, and the price has moved into a 1-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG). If there’s no significant reaction within this area, the next target will likely be the 4-hour Order Block (OB). At that point, it will be crucial to monitor the market’s reaction. If the price breaks above the 4-hour OB, we could see gold rally towards the top of the range. However, I’d be anticipating a potential reversal at that level if the price is rejected by the OB. Should the price dip below the 2652 level, the market could experience a continued downward trajectory, signaling a deeper correction.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by Almenio
Gold to push up further? And what to expect next!We could be looking at Gold exceeding $2700 this week!!! With no sign that gold wants to slow down and continual parabolic movement to the upside I have laid out two clear scenarios of what price could do this week. Scenario A: We have seen a clear Choch and Bos to the downside on the 1H leaving us with a nice 18h supply to the upside which price will push up to in order to completely fill the 4H IMB to the downside and possibly continue further in order to take more liquidity before reacting from a zone that follows price structure like the 3H demand or further down where we can see a 14h demand. Scenario B: Price has already tapped into the 1H demand and shown a LTF Choch which gives a possibility of price reacting from the LTF 10min zone to simply continue pushing up what we already see as a strong bullish move. Further confluence to support this move is the EQH at the top of the 18H supply which is a strong indication that price will not respect this zone. What we are seeing here are both likely possibilities. the question remains is golds upwards push exhausted or does it need to grab liquidity in order to continue this upwards push? what we do now is gold continues to surprise us all and possibilities are endless....
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by JamelCapital
Gold OutlookAs gold was bullish all the week and we are also bullish for gold all the week but today it has shown us bearish move today we are still bullish but as due to fundamentals gold broke its support level to the downwards and seems and also has retested the same if gold sustains the downwards move after price action candle 🕯️ we will be bearish to 2630 level of support and then we are Bullish after taking support over 2630 as i am saying in all my anylisis that gold is bullish over Monthly to Weekly to Daily to H4 to H1 TF so we are bullish will be bullish over next week too hope for the good 👍😊
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Wakeel_Saab
Can Bulls Muster the Strength for Another Rally?In yesterday’s video, I mentioned a high probability of Gold reaching a new all-time high (ATH) before undergoing a significant correction. As anticipated, the price pushed higher, with the new ATH now standing at 2685. After hitting this high, the price experienced a quick drop, but bulls held strong around the 2650 support zone. Since then, the price has rebounded to 2670 and has entered a phase of consolidation. This consolidation is forming a symmetrical triangle, which often signals a continuation of the prevailing trend. Considering today is Friday, and with the end of the month approaching, a push to test levels above 2700 is possible. That said, it’s important to remember the saying: “Trade what you see, not what you think.” What we currently see is solid support at 2650. As long as this support holds, the trend remains strongly bullish, making it risky to attempt to predict a market top. Short-term traders could search to buy dips against 2650.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mihai_Iacob
1
XAUUSD | GOLDSPOT | New perspective | follow-up detailThe Federal Reserve delivered a surprise 50 basis point rate cut, sending gold prices skyrocketing past $2,600! 🤯 This larger-than-expected cut underscores the Fed's commitment to maintaining low unemployment as inflation continues to ease. 📉 🚨 Gold prices surged past $2,600, reaching all-time highs as speculation grows that the Fed will keep lowering borrowing costs. Along with rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, global central banks are now expected to follow the Fed's path of easing monetary policy and slashing interest rates. 🌍 The Fed’s December 2024 fund rate futures suggest another significant drop, with 53 basis points expected across the final two meetings this year. Markets are now pricing in a 25 bps cut in both November and December. 📅 What’s Next? Looking ahead to next week, key Fed figures like Atlanta Fed’s Raphael Bostic, Chicago’s Austan Goolsbee, and Minnesota’s Neel Kashkari will take center stage. Important data releases, including S&P Global Flash PMIs, housing data, and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, will also play a vital role in shaping the XAU/USD outlook. 🔍 In this video, we analyze the technical structure of the gold chart and key fundamental factors to prepare for next week's trading. XAUUSD Technical Overview: This week, we're focusing on the $2,590 zone. This could be a make-or-break point. If gold stays above this zone: Bulls might maintain control, potentially pushing prices higher and setting up new highs. If gold drops below the zone, Bears might gain the upper hand in an attempt to retrace into the structure-support line of the ascending channel. Join me as we explore these factors and potential opportunities in the gold market. Like, subscribe, and hit the notification bell for the latest analysis and insights! 📌 Follow my journey as I map out the next moves in this dynamic market! #GoldPrices #XAUUSD #FederalReserve #InterestRates #JeromePowell #RateCuts #MiddleEastTensions #GoldTechnicalAnalysis #FOMC #MarketAnalysis #Inflation #GoldTrading #ForexTrading📺🔔💼 Disclaimer Notice: Trading in the foreign exchange market and other instruments carries a high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content provided here is for educational purposes only. Evaluate your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
SAXO:XAUUSD
by darcsherry
1