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Holding Strong: Why It's Time to Bet on Gold's Decline There isn't much to add—I'm currently stuck in a short position on gold, but I remain convinced that a downturn is imminent. The 4-hour chart shows a clear bearish divergence, and I don’t believe it will break through the $2700 mark easily. As a result, I’m consistently increasing my short positions, waiting for the profit window to open. Trust me, buying in at this level is as foolish as selling below $2610. If you're holding short positions, stay firm. If you're holding long, it might be time to take profits. Greed rarely rewards anyone in the long run in the markets.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by MichaeliaDefoe
2
Rate Cut Expectations Boost Gold TO 2700$ NEW ATHHELLO TRADERS! As I can see market participants now see a nearly 50% chance of a 50-basis-point rate cut, up from 14% earlier in the week​​. Comments from former Fed officials and the market’s appetite for deeper cuts have intensified speculation that the Fed may take more aggressive action. This has fueled gold’s rally, with lower rates generally increasing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. U.S. Dollar and Bond Yields Support Gold’s Rise Despite the rally in gold, the U.S. Dollar Index gained slightly this week, closing at 101.114 with a 0.07% increase​. However, the expectation of future rate cuts tempered the dollar’s momentum, keeping gold prices strong. Additionally, bond yields fell, with the 10-year Treasury dropping 2.1 basis points​. As bond yields decline, the opportunity cost of holding gold diminishes, bolstering its attractiveness as a safe-haven asset. Global Monetary Easing and Central Bank Demand Drive Gold Higher The European Central Bank (ECB) also cut interest rates this week, contributing to global monetary easing and reinforcing gold’s strong uptrend​. Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, have been increasing their gold reserves, further supporting prices. With the Fed likely to follow suit, the demand for gold is expected to remain robust in the short term. Next Week’s Forecast: Fed Meeting in Focus Looking ahead, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting scheduled for next Tuesday and Wednesday. The market widely expects a rate cut, marking the Fed’s first reduction since 2020. While the consensus is for a 25-basis-point cut, there remains a significant 49% chance of a larger 50-basis-point reduction​. A larger cut would likely drive gold prices higher, potentially pushing them towards $2,600 per ounce​. Moreover, the Fed will provide updated projections on future rate cuts, which could signal further monetary easing through 2024. The Fed’s success in bringing inflation near its 2% target while avoiding a severe recession will be pivotal in determining its next moves. If inflation continues to moderate and the labor market weakens, additional cuts could be on the horizon, further supporting gold’s bullish outlook​. technically chart is also crystal clear its just a trade idea Dear traders Support the idea it will help many other traders and share ur thoughts with us in comment Stay Tuned for more updates ....
TVC:GOLDLong
by APEX_TRADING_ACADMEY
1
Strong breakthrough, 2700 may be reached at any timeDaily resistance 2700, support below 2650 Four-hour resistance 2700, support below 2650 In the face of the trend, any counter-trend force will be disintegrated. As retail investors, the only thing we have to do is to follow the trend. We can't change anything, we can only change ourselves, and we can only survive in the market by improving our trading awareness and ability. Short sellers are wailing, and long sellers are making money all the way. Now gold is bullish, keep going long with the trend, don't go against the market, don't think about guessing the top, followers must be happy all the way, guessing the top and shorting all the way will only be stopped continuously, or even blow up. In terms of intraday operations, the idea is still very clear, "bullish", "long", participate in the trend, do not be afraid of heights and do not guess the top. I said not to be afraid of heights but how many people remember it? As long as there is a stop loss, there is no need to be afraid of heights. Let me emphasize again, and fear of heights is not a reason to short against the trend. The intraday support is at the 2650 mark, and the low point of last night's decline was also near this. This is the defensive position of the intraday bulls. The entry position is inferred from the stop loss position. As long as the stop loss can be placed around 2650, it is perfect. You may as well be bold and actively follow the trend. Now it has broken through the historical high. Today's low near 2655 has become our defensive position for BUY. Just BUY on the trend. Wait patiently for the opportunity to go long. Now it has broken through strongly and 2700 may be reached at any time.
TVC:GOLDLong
by ActuaryJ
XAUUSD: 25/9 Today's Market Analysis and StrategyGold technical analysis Daily resistance 2700, support below 2650-12 Four-hour resistance 2700, support below 2650-20 Gold operation suggestions: Yesterday, gold technically retreated around the 2620 mark twice and then stabilized and rebounded. After the US market, it accelerated and broke through and stood above the 2640 mark, and continued to strengthen to above 2650 and reached 2664. The overall gold price continued to maintain a strong unilateral upward rhythm around the 5-day moving average support. Gold has new breakthroughs every day and continues to create historical highs. According to the current trend, 2700 is just a recent thing. Today's support below is short-term focus on the 2650-48 area. If it falls back during the day, it will continue to be bullish and follow the trend. The upper target is still concerned about breaking the high. The short-term bullish strong dividing line moves up to the 2630 mark. The daily level stabilizes above this position and continues to follow the trend of low-price longs. Be cautious when shorting against the trend. I will prompt the specific operation strategy in the VIP signal. BUY:2657near BUY:2650near BUY:2640near Technical analysis only provides trading direction!
TVC:GOLDLong
by ActuaryJ
Gold's Aggressive Rally. Still looking for correction thoughWith Gold making new all-time highs every day since Friday and no resistance levels in sight, it's challenging to time and find an entry point for a short trade. Although my short position from yesterday hit the stop-loss, my view remains the same: Gold should correct by at least 500 pips. Technically, since the low last Thursday, Gold has surged by 1,200 pips, with this move contained within a very aggressive uptrend channel, which is often a sign of a final leg in a rally. Currently, the price is testing the median support, but more confirmation is needed before entering a short position. This could happen with a daily close below 2630 or if there's a failed attempt to reach a new ATH during the day. In conclusion, while I remain bullish in the medium term, at this moment, I am focused on identifying a strong entry point for a short trade, expecting a 500 pips correction.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Mihai_Iacob
XAUUSD: What Should You Do If Your Short Position Is Trapped? Recently, I've maintained a short position in gold, admittedly missing out on the recent upward momentum. However, at the current levels, I have no intention of chasing the rally. Instead, I will continue to hold my bearish outlook, waiting for a pullback to the 2580-2550 zone. Chasing the price at this stage poses unnecessary risks, as technical indicators suggest the potential for a retracement. The focus remains on capturing profits as the price corrects, reaffirming my commitment to the short strategy.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Mia-Signal
XAU/USD 25 September 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has continued to surge printing all time highs as US economic data and geopolitical tensions have influenced market sentiment which typically supports Gold prices. Therefore, price is expected to remain highly volatile. Price has printed a bearish CHoCH, we therefore have established an internal range. Intraday expectation: As price has made it's first indication of pullback by printing a bearish CHoCH, this could potentially initiate H4 pullback phase with price pulling back to discount of internal 50% EQ or H4 demand zone. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Yesterday's intraday analysis was correct as price did target weak internal high, printing a further bullish iBOS. Price is now contained within an internal range and is in discount of internal 50% EQ. Intraday expectation: Technically price should target weak internal high. Expecting reaction from discount of 50% EQ or M15 demand zone. Alternative scenario: Due to all HTF's requiring a pullback, it would not surprise me if price printed a bearish iBOS. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
Gold's Rally Nears an Interesting Zone: Time to Lock in Profits?In six of the last seven months, Gold has hit new all-time highs. It's been an impressive rally, especially after breaking the significant psychological level of $2000. It took almost four years and seven failed attempts before the 8th finally succeeded, followed by a textbook retest—and here we are today. From my perspective, XAUUSD has now reached a highly interesting zone. Two of my key criteria— channel projection and equal waves —are in play, which are useful when there's no previous price action traffic from the left. Is this a short/sell zone? No, I don’t think so. Instead, it’s a prime spot to consider taking profits . If you've been wondering when and why to lock in some gains, the price action suggests this could be an ideal opportunity. While shorting opportunities may present themselves, it will take time for the price action to develop and show signs of a potential downturn. The last time we saw a Lower Low on the Weekly chart was back in September 2022. So, jumping into a short position right now could be extremely risky. Even on the Daily chart, higher lows have been forming consistently. To sum it up: this is not an area to short but rather an interesting zone to watch for future developments. If you’re uncertain, this could be a perfect point to take partial or full profits. A Quick Overview of the Criteria: Channel Projection – You may have heard that prices move within channels. Right now, we’re trying to predict the upper trendline of the channel as the price takes shape. Start by drawing the lower trendline, from wick to wick (or body to body). I’ve drawn mine using the wicks, marked with a red circle. Then, copy and paste it to the highest peak between the lower points. This gives us the channel projection. Feel free to try this on other charts and share your results in the comments! Equal Waves – I call this method "equal waves," though others may have a different term for it. The idea is to measure major price swings. In this case, the first major swing was from near all-time lows to the 2011 high. After the correction, the second swing started in December 2015. Copy and paste the length of the first swing, and you’ll see it matches closely with the parallel channel’s projection. Together, these two criteria have worked well for me to identify both buying and profit-taking zones. For example, I’ve applied them successfully to stocks like MMM , AMD , and NVIDIA . Summary: Gold (XAUUSD) has hit new all-time highs in six of the last seven months, breaking the $2000 level after years of attempts. Now, the price has reached an interesting zone for profit-taking rather than shorting. Two key technical analysis criteria—channel projection and equal waves—suggest it’s a strong area to consider locking in gains. However, it’s too early to consider shorting, as no clear signs of a downturn have appeared yet.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by VaidoVeek
XAUUSD 9/25/2024 gold price continues to increase? Looking at H1 we are witnessing an extended wave 5 with the wave 5 target I measured at the current price zone of 2665 this zone has been reached and the second price zone at the price zone of 2696 - 2699. After the end of wave 5 we will have another ABC adjustment so these target price zones will be the price zones we choose as SELL down targets - This adjustment will be very large and long to facilitate intraday trading I will choose target zones with a lot of demand so we can catch the recovery waves in this adjustment. - We have 2 target price zones with high demand concentration, which are the 2565 - 2562 zone and the 2594 - 2591 zone. These are the 2 target zones we choose to BUY up. Trading plan SELL ZONE: 2696 - 2699 SL: 2706 TP1: 2682 TP2: 2665 TP3: 2655 BUY ZONE: 2565 - 2562 SL: 2555 TP1: 2641 Tp2: 2655 TP3: 2670 BUY ZONE: 2594 - 2591 SL: 2584 TP1: 2614 TP2: 2625 TP3: 2641
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by DEEKOP
Gold is just one step away, the Sell opportunity is comingIn today's Asian session, gold rose in the short term, and the historical high was refreshed again, reaching 2640. Driven by the Fed's expectations of a rate cut in November and the decline in US Treasury yields, the price of gold hit a new record high. The growing tension between Israel and Hezbollah has increased the appeal of safe havens, which may further boost demand for gold. From the 4-hour chart, we can see that referring to the rule that the price of gold rises by $50-60 each time, the price of gold is likely to have room for an increase of $10. This is almost the last short-term rise in gold. The high point of this time is likely to be around the range of 2640-2650. Trading strategy: Now chasing the rise, there is not much room above, and there is a risk of an imminent correction, so I don't recommend it. Go short now, because there may be more than ten dollars of room for growth above, and now is not a good selling position, so we can wait until the 2640-2650 range to sell, preferably at 2650. I personally did not close the sell order I held last week. If the gold price reaches 2650, I will continue to increase my position and pull the average price to 2615-2620
TVC:GOLDShort
by AntonyTP
XAU/USD 24 September 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Despite price printing it's first indication of bearish pullback phase initiation, price continued bullish. Recent economic data and geopolitical tensions, have influenced market sentiment such as the Fed's recent interest rate decision (reduction) which typically supports Gold prices. Therefore, price is expected to remain highly volatile. From a structural perspective, price is within an internal low and fractal high. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dashed line. Since previous analysis price has continued bullish, as a result, CHoCH positioning has been brought closer to recent price action. Intraday expectation: Due to volatility, price could continue bullish, however, price could also initiate bearish pullback by printing bearish CHoCH, therefore, I will be standing by. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. *CORRECTION* - I overlooked yesterday's analysis stating internal was bearish when it was in fact bullish. Yesterday's intraday analysis was correct as price did target weak internal high, printing a further bullish iBOS. Price is now contained within an internal range and is positioned at the extreme of the strong internal low of internal 50% EQ and M15 demand zone. Currently strong internal low is holding. Intraday expectation: Technically price should target weak internal high. Alternative scenario: Due to all HTF's requiring a pullback, it would not surprise me if price printed a bearish iBOS. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAUUSD: 24/9 Today’s Market Analysis and StrategyGold technical analysis Daily resistance 2650, support 2584. Four-hour resistance 2650, support 2620-2600 Gold operation suggestions: Yesterday, the technical side of gold stabilized above 2613 and continued to fluctuate and consolidate with bulls. The bulls in the US market rushed to break through the 2634 mark and then fell back and fluctuated. Finally, it closed near the 2625 mark. The overall price maintained a high and strong consolidation. Although the increase was not large, the short-term bullish thinking was still the main focus. From the current market trend, today's support below is around 2620-2610, and the upper pressure continues to focus on 2645. Wait patiently for the key points to enter the market. BUY:2618near BUY:2604near Technical analysis only provides trading direction!
TVC:GOLDLong
by ActuaryJ
XAUUSD 9/24/2024 price increase continues? Looking at H1 we see wave 5 is completing - The target position of the end of wave 5 we have 2 target zones, the first zone is 2645 - 2648 and the second target zone is 2597 - 2700. For now we will choose the first target zone which is 2645 - 2648 as the target zone to SELL down - Below after the end of wave 5 we will have a correction according to 3 ABC waves. - We have the target zone of this correction at the price zone 2594 - 2591 and the second target zone at the price zone 2565 - 2562 we will choose these 2 target zones to BUY Trading plan SELL ZONE: 2645 - 2648 SL: 2655 TP1: 2625 TP2: 2606 TP3: 2593 BUY ZONE: 2594 - 2591 SL: 2584 TP1: 2606 TP2: 2616 TP3: 2645 BUY ZONE: 2565 - 2562 SL: 2555 TP1: 2570 TP2: 2589 TP3: 2603
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DEEKOP