XAUUSD Top-down analysis todayHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
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XAU/USD 19 September 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
Intraday analysis/bias remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 18 September 2024.
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
As mentioned on 13 September 2024, price to indicate pullback by printing bearish CHoCH. Current CHoCH was significantly positioned away from price therefore, price could print higher-highs to bring CHoCH positioning closer to current price.
This is how price printed with CHoCH positioning being brought significantly closer to current price action.
After a very long period price has printed it's first indication of bearish pullback phase initiation which was in accordance to my intraday analysis of yesterday 16 September 2024.
Internal range has now been established.
Recent economic data, particularly from the US has influenced market sentiment such as softer US employment data leading to an expectation of a more softer approach from the Fed which typically supports Gold prices. Therefore, price will be highly volatile.
Intraday expectation: Price to continue bearish, react at discount of 50% EQ or Daily and H4 POI's.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Price also met yesterday's intraday expectation by targeting weak internal low.
This is in-line with all HTF as a pullback is required.
Yesterday's Fed rate decision to increase rates by 50bps saw a bullish spike in volume with price printing a bullish iBOS, followed by a bearish iBOS, which was in-line with yesterday's intraday expectation.
Price has not printed a bullish CHoCH, however, price has printed beyond internal 50% EQ and in to premium, therefore, I am happy to confirm internal range.
Intraday expectation: Price has reacted at premium of 50% EQ and could potentially target M15 supply zone. Technically price should target weak internal low, however, we should be mindful that, due to geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions, price is likely to be highly volatile.
M15 Chart:
XAUUSD 19/9/2024 Downtrend is over?
Looking at H1 we see that after the FOMC news we witnessed a strong price increase creating ATH at the 2600 area. Then there was a strong decrease to the 2547 area
- So wave 5 has completed as expected my target. now we expect an ABC correction
- Looking at the chart we see a strong decline suggesting a completed wave A, this strong decline also shows us that wave A has a 5-wave structure so this correction we expect a correction according to the ABC Zigzac correction structure
- The target of wave B I expect at the 2580 - 2583 zone or the 2579 - 2600 zone this is our SELL target
- After completing the target of wave B the price continues to decrease to complete wave C I expect the target to complete wave C at the price zone of 2528 - 2525 this will be our BUY target
- We also have a strong support zone at the price zone of 2451 - 2448 this will be our BUY scalp zone
Trading plan
SELL ZONE 2580 - 2583
SL: 2590
TP1: 2570
TP2: 2562
TP3: 2551
SELL ZONE: 2597 - 2600
SL: 2607
TP1: 2590
TP2: 2579
TP3: 2562
BUY ZONE: 2551 - 2448
SL: 2561
TP1: 2562
TP2: 2570
TP3: 2579
BUY ZONE: 2528 - 2525
TP1: 2541
TP2: 2551
TP3: 2562
XAUUSD Gold Technical Analysis and Trade Idea👀 👉 XAUUSD Gold has broken its market structure to the downside. On the daily and 4-hour charts, we observe a pullback into equilibrium, presenting a potential buying opportunity. In this video, we discuss market structure, price action, and, most importantly, the trend. We also outline a possible trade setup if the price moves as outlined in the video.
Disclaimer: The information provided in this video is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Always perform your own analysis or consult a financial advisor before making any trading decisions. 📊✅
The 2550 target has been achieved, how to trade next?
Currently, gold has fallen below 2550, and our short-term goal has been achieved. Due to the rapid and sharp decline, there is a need for a rebound and repair on the technical side. It is expected that there will be an increase in the intraday tomorrow. The transaction can be mainly based on low-level longs, and short again after rebounding to the resistance.
Analysis of gold price trend on WednesdayGold is now priced around 2570. Gold prices fell slightly from their all-time highs in the previous trading day as the U.S. retail sales monthly rate in August was stronger than market expectations, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rebounded, and some traders took profits on long orders in preparation for the Fed's possible rate cut decision this week.
The unexpected growth in U.S. retail sales in August, with the decline in auto dealer sales overshadowed by strong online shopping, showed that the U.S. economy remained solid for most of the third quarter, which put pressure on safe-haven gold. The previously released retail sales data was better than expected, which seemed to support the Fed's less aggressive stance. It is widely expected that the Fed will announce its first rate cut in more than four years. The last time the Fed cut interest rates was in March 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic.
It should be reminded that the market has partially digested the Fed's expectation of a 50 basis point rate cut on Wednesday, so whether it is a 25 basis point or 50 basis point cut, investors need to beware of the emergence of a "boot landing" market, when a large number of long orders may take the opportunity to take profits, thereby dragging down the price of gold. Similar market conditions have occurred many times in history: before the Fed cut interest rates, gold prices continued to rise due to the expectation of interest rate cuts, but after the Fed actually cut interest rates, gold prices fluctuated and weakened.
Technically, gold has not changed much, and it still fluctuates widely. The daily chart is adjusted at a high level, and the indicators are repaired. MA10/7/5 day moving averages still open upward. The short-term four-hour chart and hourly chart RSI indicators have been overbought for a long time and then returned to the central axis for repair and adjustment. The four-hour Bollinger Bands closed, and the price was consolidated around the middle track. Gold bottomed out and rebounded, and the intraday trading idea is to sell high and buy low. Please do not trade when the news is released!
Trading strategy:
2560-2562 long, stop loss 2551, target 2580-2590;
2585-2587 short, stop loss 2596, target 2560-2570;
XAUUSD: Analysis and strategy before the Fed rate decisionYesterday's view on gold was still very accurate. In the article, I clearly stated that there would be a correction before the Fed's interest rate decision, and the window period was after the data was released. As expected, under the premise of multiple negative data and a large number of long orders being profited, the gold price fell all the way to 2560, which also gave us the opportunity to close the short positions we held last week.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be announced today. My prediction for a rate cut is 25 basis points. The possibility of 50 basis points is not high in my opinion, but it has to be guarded against.
In the context of the upcoming announcement of the interest rate cut, today's trading strategy must be based on the number of basis points of interest rate cuts to formulate a trading plan, so I give the following suggestions for your reference:
In the case of a 25 basis point interest rate cut:
I personally think that the gold price will rise first and then fall. First of all, the interest rate cut is definitely good for gold, but because of the continuous interest rate cut remarks for a month, the gold price has now reached a historical high of 2590, and has digested the impact of the interest rate cut in advance. The rise in gold prices from 2530-2590 is largely due to some investors' belief that the Fed will be concerned about employment issues, which greatly increases the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut. Therefore, once the announced value does not meet expectations, the price of gold will inevitably fall.
In the case of a 50 basis point rate cut:
There is no doubt that gold prices will continue to rise and set a new high again.
XAUUSD: 18/9 Today's Market Analysis and StrategyGold technical analysis
Daily resistance 2590, support below 2530
Four-hour resistance 2582, support below 2556
Gold accelerated its rise after breaking 2531 last week. It is still in a bullish pattern. Although the market fell under pressure around 2590 on Monday and Tuesday this week, it fell to 2560 at its lowest and still failed to fall below 2556. The short-term market is a high-level sideways shock trend. With 2556 as the stop loss position, you can continue to buy low and pay attention to the suppression of 2590 area. Before the Fed's news lands, both the long and short sides will not make too much movement, and the market will not fluctuate too much. You can just enter and exit quickly around the range in the short term.
In terms of intraday short-term operations, the market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates, but it is just a matter of how much the rate cut is. In theory, the rate hike is good for gold, but the news has been in the market for too long. Once the expectations of the bulls are met, the bulls will take profits and gold will fall sharply. Therefore, before the news is released, gold will continue to go long around the 2556 line, but a smaller SL must be set, and orders must not be held against the trend. Before the interest rate decision, if it reaches a new high near the 2590 area and then stagnates, you can go short. Try not to trade in the middle area, wait patiently for the layout at the boundary, and participate with a small stop loss.
BUY:2560near SL:2556
SELL:2582near SL:2589
Technical analysis only provides trading direction!
XAU/USD 18 September 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
As mentioned on 13 September 2024, price to indicate pullback by printing bearish CHoCH. Current CHoCH was significantly positioned away from price therefore, price could print higher-highs to bring CHoCH positioning closer to current price.
This is how price printed with CHoCH positioning being brought significantly closer to current price action.
After a very long period price has printed it's first indication of bearish pullback phase initiation which was in accordance to my intraday analysis of yesterday 16 September 2024.
Internal range has now been established.
Recent economic data, particularly from the US has influenced market sentiment such as softer US employment data leading to an expectation of a more softer approach from the Fed which typically supports Gold prices. Therefore, price will be highly volatile.
Intraday expectation: Price to continue bearish, react at discount of 50% EQ or Daily and H4 POI's.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price met yesterday's intraday expectation by targeting weak internal low.
This is in-line with all HTF as a pullback is required.
Price has printed a further bearish iBOS followed by a bullish CHoCH indicating bullish pullback phase initiation.
Intraday expectation: Price has reacted at premium of 50% EQ. Technically price should target weak internal low, however, we should be mindful that, due to geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions, price is likely to be highly volatile.
M15 Chart:
XAUUSD 18/9/2024 gold price has ended the correction?
Looking at H1, we have a sharp and fast-moving wave 3, followed by a corrective wave 4
- According to the Elliot wave principle, wave 2 is simple, wave 4 is complex and takes more time, so we are in wave 4.
- I temporarily label the small waves in wave 4 so that we can predict the end of wave 4
- Currently, looking at the price target of wave 4, we have the price range of 2565 - 2562 and the second target price range is the range of 2451 - 2448
- Looking at the structure of wave 4, we have a complex structure consisting of a Flat wave combined with a zigzag structure WXY. Looking at the wave 4 structure, we see that the correction structure may be sufficient and we expect the price to continue to increase according to wave 5
- The correction process of wave 4 is confirmed to be completed when the price breaks out through the 2590.188 zone, then we have the target zones of wave 5 above, which are the 2600 - 2603 zone and the 2616 - 2619 zone
Our trading plan
BUY ZONE: 2565 - 2562
SL: 2555
TP1: 2579
TP2: 2590
TP3: 2600
BUY ZONE: 2451 - 2448
SL: 2441
TP1: 2561
TP2: 2579
TP3: 2590
SELL ZONE: 2600 - 2603
SL: 2700
TP1: 2590
TP2: 2579
TP3: 2565
SELL ZONE: 2616 - 2619
SL: 2716
TP1: 2600
TP2: 2590
TP3: 2579
Gold NFP potential corrections / retracement key levelsIf FED will not disappoints market with a 50bps market pricing in rate cut, then some key levels are plotted that is due for corrections / retracement.
Later all eyes will focus on Powell speech whether he will take an aggressive approach for November FOMC.
XAUUSD: The decline is about to begin, have you sold?After gold rose to the high point of 2580-2590, it basically maintained a shock consolidation this week. So far, no new historical highs have been triggered this week.
For now, most investors in the market believe that the Fed's interest rate decision will be a node, but in fact, it is not. I think today's data will be a window for a change.
Because the closer the interest rate decision is, the more people will be eager to close the profitable long orders, which will quickly weaken the long force and give the short force an opportunity to take advantage of the situation.
So I think there is a high probability that there will be a callback before the interest rate decision.
Trading strategy:
Sell in the 2580-2590 area, the target is first to look at the 2550 area, and the second is the previous high 2530 area.
I personally still hold on to the short orders I held last week. After adding positions at high levels several times, the average price is now at 2567. As long as the gold price falls, our trapped orders can be closed at a profit.
Gold Stagnates at Resistance: A Breakdown Imminent?
Gold has been consolidating at its high levels for some time, with the resistance zone clearly defined. As long as this resistance remains unbroken, the primary focus should be on short positions. The longer the price consolidates, the sharper the eventual decline is expected to be.
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GOLD: The 2570-2580 area is likely to be a stage high pointGold finally ended the suppression of nearly a month yesterday, breaking through 2530 in one fell swoop, and the latest high reached 2572.
I mentioned in yesterday's article that if gold does not set a new high in the short term, it may go down, but I didn't expect the impact to be so strong, much more violent than I expected.
Yesterday, my Sell position was still held, with a small position at 2543 and an increase at 2550. Now the price has stabilized around 2570. I am going to add a little more, pull the average price appropriately, and continue to hold a bearish view.
In my opinion, it is impossible to keep setting new highs. From the previous high of 2530 to the current 2570, it has risen by more than 40 US dollars after setting a new high.
According to the previous rising pattern, each time the increase is 50$, so we can conclude that the high point of this rise is likely to be in the 2570-2580 area.
Therefore, we don’t have to worry too much about the short orders we hold. The price of gold is likely to start falling from the 2570-2580 area.
Next, I will continue to update my ideas in my channel for your reference. If you have any ideas, you can ask me directly.
XAUUSD: 13/9 Today's Market Analysis and StrategyGold technical analysis
Daily resistance 2590, support below 2530
Four-hour resistance 2575, support below 2544
As the saying goes, the longer the horizontal line, the higher the vertical line. After a long period of box consolidation, the gold price broke upward and refreshed the historical high of 2531. It is emphasized that after the break of 2531, it is time to go all out to be bullish on gold. Don't have any more empty thoughts. The current market is bullish in multiple cycles. Whether it is the weekly, daily, or 4-hour lines, it is an absolute bullish trend. There is no doubt that we will continue to go long during the day. There is nothing to say. Just don't think about guessing where the top is for the time being.
As for the intraday long position, after accelerating higher yesterday, it still maintained a strong upward trend today. The overnight low was at 2544, and today's Asian session low was at 2556. Pay attention to these two support points during the day. If you want to maintain an extremely strong long position, the starting point of 2556 cannot be broken. You can try to go long when it falls back during the day to near 2556. Today's bullish thinking can be maintained until 10 am in the U.S. market. Technical profit-taking may occur after 10 am, the last trading day of this week, but remember to only go long and not short, and follow the trend!
BUY:2556near
BUY:2544near
SELL:2590near
Technical analysis only provides trading direction!
XAU/USD 17 September 2024 Intraday Analysis H4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
As mentioned on 13 September 2024, price to indicate pullback by printing bearish CHoCH. Current CHoCH was significantly positioned away from price therefore, price could print higher-highs to bring CHoCH positioning closer to current price.
This is how price printed with CHoCH positioning being brought significantly closer to current price action.
After a very long period price has printed it's first indication of bearish pullback phase initiation which was in accordance to my intraday analysis of yesterday 16 September 2024.
Internal range has now been established.
Recent economic data, particularly from the US has influenced market sentiment such as softer US employment data leading to an expectation of a more softer approach from the Fed which typically supports Gold prices. Therefore, price will be highly volatile.
Intraday expectation: Price indicate pullback by printing bearish CHoCH.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price did not meet yesterday's intraday expectation by printing a bearish iBOS.
This was expected as all HTF's require a pullback.
Intraday expectation: Price has reacted at premium of 50% EQ. Technically price should target weak internal low.
M15 Chart:
Analysis of gold price trend on TuesdayGold fluctuated in a narrow range at highs on Tuesday, and the current price is around 2583. Gold prices rose slightly on Monday, hitting a record high of 2590, helped by a weaker dollar and the expectation that the Federal Reserve will announce a sharp interest rate cut at this week's policy meeting! Although there were some short-term profit-taking of long orders at high levels, the gold price closed near the historical high!
The US dollar index continued to fall on Monday, which continued to provide support for gold prices. However, it should be reminded that if the US dollar index can hold the 100.50 first-line support (the US dollar index has rebounded after receiving support near this position many times in the past year or so), gold may usher in a correction. The global central bank has entered a cycle of interest rate cuts, which also provides support for gold prices. The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week, although ECB President Lagarde suppressed expectations of lowering borrowing costs again next month.
The "horror data" will be released this trading day-the monthly rate of US retail sales in August, which investors need to pay close attention to. The current market expectation is -0.2%, and the previous value is 1%. This expectation is slightly biased towards supporting gold prices before the data is released. In addition to the "horror data", pay attention to the changes in market expectations for the Fed's decision and news related to the geopolitical situation.
Technical aspect
There has been no major change in the technical aspect. At the beginning of the week, the Asian session rose around 2580. After a small high in the afternoon, there was no large-scale increase. After the overbought in the small cycle four-hour chart and hourly chart, the price formed a high-rise and fell back. The entire trend of the US market formed a 77-90 range adjustment at the high level of the consolidation triangle. It is cold at high places. Although the trend has not changed, we must always pay attention to the emergence of technical callbacks and repairs. Therefore, long-term long positions have turned into short-term long positions, and strict risk control. Pay attention to the break direction of the 77/90 range during the day.
Trading strategy:
2573-2575 long, stop loss 2564, target 2590-2600;
2593-2595 short, stop loss 2606, target 2580-2570;