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XAU/USD 10 September 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: Intraday expectation, analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 August 2024. -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a bullish iBOS. After an iBOS (Internal Break of Structure) we expect a bearish pullback. Price has printed bearish CHoCH which indicates, but not confirms bearish pullback phase initiation Intraday expectation: Whilst price did continue bearish as part of bearish pullback phase, I am concerned that price has not, as yet, pulled back deep enough into either H4 demand zone or discount of 50% EQ, therefore, it is my view that price will seek further liquidity before a sustained bullish move to target weak internal high. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: Intraday expectation, analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 05 September 2024. -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. Due to several factors such as geopolitical tensions and many macroeconomic factors XAU continues to surge. Nonetheless, I will continue with systematic rules of analysis. Technically price should target weak internal low, therefore, my bias will remain unchanged until M15 candle break and close above swing high. Price has targeted weak internal low but the move was not sustained which indicates that price may be seeking further liquidity. We are seeing a secondary reaction to previous M15 supply zone. Intraday expectation: Price is in premium of internal 50% EQ. Price to target weak internal low. My bias will remain unchanged until and unless M15 candle close above strong swing high. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
Gold (XAU/USD) Short Setup on 1-Hour ChartGold Short Setup – Targeting 2,480-2,470 Area Following Friday’s Selloff After a significant selloff in Gold (XAU/USD) on Friday, we are looking to continue the bearish trend into the new week. The market has shown weakness, and we aim to capitalize on this by targeting the 2,480-2,470 area if the opportunity presents itself. If market conditions change, we will adjust our strategy accordingly. Technical Analysis: • Continuation of Downtrend: The recent selloff suggests strong bearish momentum, with Gold breaking through several support levels. We expect this trend to continue as the market digests Friday’s moves. • Target Zones: The 2,480-2,470 area represents the next logical support level, where we anticipate potential profit-taking or a reversal if the market reaches this zone. • Entry and Risk Management: Enter short positions with an initial stop-loss above the recent swing high. As the trade progresses, consider moving the stop-loss to breakeven or into profit to protect gains. Fundamental Analysis: • Market Sentiment: The current market sentiment is bearish for Gold, driven by a stronger USD and potential tightening monetary policy. This is likely to continue pressuring Gold prices. • News and Events: Keep an eye on any economic data or news that might impact USD strength or Gold demand, as these could influence the trade. This short setup leverages the ongoing bearish momentum in Gold, with a clear target in mind. As always, stay flexible and ready to adjust based on how the market evolves. Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDShort
by AR33_
XAU/USD Weekly Analysis: A Challenging Market AheadIt's been a challenging few weeks for XAU/USD traders, especially for those of us who prefer swing trading with larger targets. As a directional trader, I usually aim for 400-500 pips per trade, but the recent market conditions have tested my strategy. With the total range being only around 600 pips over the past couple of weeks, volatility has been limited from my point of view, making it tough to find those big moves. NFP Data and Gold’s Reaction: On Friday, the NFP data came in at 143K, lower than the market's expectations. This weaker-than-expected jobs number suggests that the Federal Reserve could feel more comfortable cutting interest rates in the near future, as economic data softens. Immediately after the release, gold initially rallied, touching a key resistance level at its previous all-time high. However, the bullish momentum didn't hold. Gold soon dropped after hitting this level, signaling significant resistance. Key Levels and Market Sentiment: As I’ve mentioned in previous analyses, the resistance zone that gold initially touched after the NFP release was critical for any continuation of the uptrend. Despite some initial volatility, the price fell below an interim support zone around 2505, and by the end of Friday's session, gold had dipped below the critical 2500 level. Technical Outlook: Bearish Signs on the Horizon? Looking at the daily chart, Friday's session closed with a bearish engulfing pattern, a strong bearish indicator. As I mentioned, it also closed below both the 2505 interim support and the 2500 key level. Zooming out to the weekly chart, we see the formation of a doji pattern, a classic sign of market indecision and potential reversal. This topping formation aligns with the bearish sentiment seen in shorter timeframes. Strategy for the Upcoming Week: With these factors in mind, I stayed out of the market on Friday, believing we are at a critical juncture. Moving forward, I plan to look for sell opportunities on rallies. The 2505 resistance zone, which previously acted as support, could offer ideal selling opportunities if gold retests this level. If the price continues to move lower and approaches the 2475 support zone, my expectation is that this level will eventually give way. In fact, my target for the next significant move in gold is between 2430 and 2440, where I believe the next major support lies. Conclusion: As we move into next week, the key will be to watch how gold reacts at these critical resistance and support zones. If bearish momentum continues, we could see further downside. As always, I’ll provide an updated analysis once the market opens on Monday. Stay tuned, and enjoy the weekend! Mihai Iacob
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Mihai_Iacob
3
XAU/USD Correction Nears End: Preparing for Further Downside?In my weekend analysis and yesterday’s video, I expressed the view that XAU/USD has turned bearish in the mid-term, with the potential for a drop below the 2475 support zone. After initially pulling back to the NFP low, the price rebounded and returned to my sell zone between 2505-2510 (as previously explained). However, this recovery from 2485 seems more corrective and overlapping in nature, lacking strong momentum. After reaching a local high near 2507, the price began to roll over again. Confirmation of a lower high and the end of this correction would come with a drop below 2500, which would once again expose the 2475 support zone. Additionally, a retest of this level could potentially lead to a break, bringing my mid-term target of 2440 into focus. At this point, I maintain my bearish outlook on gold and for the short term 2475 is my target.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Mihai_Iacob
3
The world is optimistic, gold bounces strongly to the 2500 areaGold Price Forecast Experts expect that the opportunity of the Fed reducing hobby costs through 25 foundation factors is increasing, that could make gold charges prone withinside the close to time period. Ole Hansen, head of commodity method at Saxo Bank, predicts that the August jobs variety isn't always sufficient for the Fed to reduce through 50 foundation factors on September 18. This is not going to assist gold attain new highs. Christopher Vecchio, an analyst at Tastylive, predicts that regardless of short-time period volatility, withinside the lengthy time period, the treasured metallic will continue to be an appealing funding as worldwide authorities debt rises and hobby costs fall. --- XAUUSD sell 2515-2520 SL 2532 TP 2500 TP 2490 TP 2480 TP 2470 --- Buy/Sell Scenario: 🟢 Buy: * Break above 2529.27 with a full body candle close. * Retest of the bearish OB resistance line that failed on the 1-hour timeframe. * Formation of a bullish engulfing candle in the 5/15-minute timeframe to take advantage of a Buy opportunity towards 2550 and potentially higher. 🔴 Sell: * Retest of the bearish OB resistance line on the 1-hour timeframe at 2508.26. * Formation of a bearish CHOCH candle in the 5/15-minute timeframe with a full body candle close. * Retest of a bearish CHOCH candle to take advantage of a Sell opportunity towards 2470 and potentially lower.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TheLeader_WOLF
XAUUSD: Bearish Strategy Amid Resistance Levels Today’s bullish trades have been relatively smooth, with the price now hovering near a key resistance zone. From a technical perspective, if a breakout occurs, the next upside target would likely range between 2510-2518. However, if the price fails to break through this level in the near term, there is a high probability that we will see a move towards the 2452 support area later this week. Overall, the primary focus for this week remains selling at higher levels.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Mia-Signal
1
XAUUSD: 2505-2500 resistance is not broken, boldly sellThe August NFP data released by the United States last Friday was 142,000, lower than the expected 160,000 and higher than the previous value of 89,000. At the same time, although the unemployment rate was in line with market expectations, it was actually the first decline in 5 months, which caused the gold price to rebound to 2529 and then fall to 2485. From the daily chart, the K-line decline this time is very similar to the previous decline. If we calculate the next three trading days according to the previous rules, it will fluctuate in the range of 2470-2505. We can sell high and buy low during this period. And after 3 trading days, it happens to be the node when CPI is announced. Therefore, from the perspective of trend and time, the probability of copying the previous market is also very high. Now the gold price is close to the resistance of 2500-2505. I have mentioned the support and resistance of this range countless times before. Everyone knows its importance. Therefore, if nothing unexpected happens today, I will sell near this range.
TVC:GOLDShort
by AntonyTP
Monday Market Analysis and SignalsGold fluctuated in a narrow range in the Asian market on Monday, now around 2497. Gold prices rose and fell last Friday, because the number of new non-agricultural jobs was lower than expected. Gold prices hit a three-week high of around 2529, approaching the historical high, but soon gave up the gains because the unemployment rate fell and the Fed's "No. 3" did not send a signal of a 50 basis point interest rate cut to the market, which made the market doubt the extent of the Fed's interest rate cut later this month. The lower-than-expected employment growth in August, in addition to the reduction in job vacancies indicating weakening demand, may also reflect a seasonal anomaly, that is, August employment growth is often lower than consensus expectations at first, and will be revised upward later. Affected by the decline in new jobs and Waller's speech, the US 10-year Treasury yield fell last Friday, hitting a 15-month low in volatile trading earlier in the session, which still provides some support for gold. This week will usher in the US August CPI data, investors need to focus on the performance of the data and pay attention to changes in market expectations. This week will also usher in the European Central Bank's interest rate decision, which investors also need to pay attention to. The vast majority of economists expect the European Central Bank to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting on September 12, and cut interest rates again in December. This may provide some support for gold prices, as rate cuts will reduce the cost of holding gold. Technically, the daily line fell again, and the weekly and daily RSI indicators still remained above the central axis. Secondly, the moving average system did not appear to cross and open downward. Overall, gold continued to fluctuate widely at high levels at the beginning of this week. In terms of operation, high-altitude is the main focus, and low-long is only short-term participation at this high level. Be careful of gold diving at any time. Trading strategy: 2478-2480 long, stop loss 2468, target 2500-2510; 2512-2514 short, stop loss 2519, target 2490-2480; Check out my profile for more free sharing and profits.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Jun-goldFX
XAU/USD 09 September 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: Intraday expectation, analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 August 2024. -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a bullish iBOS. After an iBOS (Internal Break of Structure) we expect a bearish pullback. Price has printed bearish CHoCH which indicates, but not confirms bearish pullback phase initiation Intraday expectation: Whilst price did continue bearish as part of bearish pullback phase, I am concerned that price has not, as yet, pulled back deep enough into either H4 demand zone or discount of 50% EQ, therefore, it is my view that price will seek further liquidity before a sustained bullish move to target weak internal high. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: Intraday expectation, analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 05 September 2024. -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. Due to several factors such as geopolitical tensions and many macroeconomic factors XAU continues to surge. Nonetheless, I will continue with systematic rules of analysis. Technically price should target weak internal low, therefore, my bias will remain unchanged until M15 candle break and close above swing high. Price has targeted weak internal low but the move was not sustained which indicates that price may be seeking further liquidity. We are seeing a secondary reaction to previous M15 supply zone. Intraday expectation: Price is in premium of internal 50% EQ. Price to target weak internal low. My bias will remain unchanged until and unless M15 candle close above strong swing high. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
2
XAUUSD 9/9/2024 Is the Downtrend Over? Looking at H1 we see a 5-wave structure has ended and then the price has decreased to the 2491 area. - Looking at the current price structure, we expect the price to create a new bullish structure larger than the current structure, which I denote as the orange structure - So with the 5-wave orange structure, we expect wave 1 to be completed - And now wave 2 I measure the target at the price zone of 2481 - 2479, this will be the target for us to BUY - I still do not rule out that the adjustment process is not yet complete because the adjustment process is only confirmed when the price surpasses 2532, so I still calculate the possibility that the price is still adjusting - At that time, the target price zone ends the adjustment at the price zone of 2435 - 2432, this will be our BUY target when the price breaks through 2471 Regarding the SELL zone, I see that there is a very large supply at the price zone of 2511 - 2514 This zone is determined by the Volume profile tool when the price touches this zone, there must be a supply absorption phase before it can continue to increase, so this will be our SELL target Trading plan BUY ZONE: 2477 - 2474 SL: 2467 TP1: 2487 TP2: 2497 TP3: 2510 BUY ZONE: 2435 - 2432 SL: 2425 TP1: 2453 TP2: 2471 TP3: 2410 SELL ZONE: 2511 - 2514 SL: 2521 TP1: 2499 TP2: 2487 TP3: 2477
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DEEKOP
XAUUSD:5/9 Today's Market Analysis and StrategyGold technical analysis Daily resistance 2550, support below 2450 Four-hour resistance 2506, support below 2450 Gold operation suggestions: Yesterday, gold bulls did not rise further strongly, and the upside was limited after the news release in NY time. The hourly moving average of gold is still a dead cross downward short arrangement, and there is no sign of turning. The gold moving average resistance is around 2500-2507. In the short term, gold continues to be under pressure from the 2500-2507 line. It has not broken through in one fell swoop, indicating that the resistance is still valid. Gold still continues to be bearish and fall back. The rebound of gold is not a reversal. Although it seems strong on the surface, it still cannot change the form of gold topping at a high level. Gold is already bearish in the short term. Without data stimulation, it is difficult for gold to break through resistance. Do not expect a big rise before NFP on Friday. From the 4-hour analysis, the current upper resistance is 2500-2507. The pullback relies on this position to continue the main bearish trend. The short-term gold price long and short strength watershed focuses on the 2515 mark. Before the daily level breaks through and stands on this position, any pullback is a short-selling opportunity. Keep participating in the trend. SELL:2494near SL:2500 SELL:2508near SL:2511 SELL:2525near SL:2529 Technical analysis only provides trading direction!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ActuaryJ
Weekly Summary of Gold Market AnalysisSummary of Gold Market Analysis Monthly Chart Analysis • Volume: Ultra-high, with a bullish candle closing at the high. • Key Levels: o Support: Break below recent low could signal sell-off. o Resistance: Breakout above recent high signals continued bullishness. ________________________________________ Weekly Timeframe Trend: Bullish • Key Levels: 2450-2460 (Range) • Market Structure: Bullish breakout • Forecast: Gold is expected to continue trading within the 2450-2460 zone. • Range: Prices have been ranging for three weeks, with visible selling pressure. • Key Levels: o Support: Break below 2470 current low confirms selling. o Resistance: Breakout above the monthly high2530 resumes bullish trend. • Recent Movements: Gold has been trading in the same range for three weeks. ________________________________________ Daily Timeframe • Trend: Bullish with potential sideways movement • Key Levels: 2475, 2530, 2550-2560 (Resistance) • Market Structure: Bullish with strong resistance at 2550-2560 • Forecast: Ranging movement with potential spikes, followed by price drops. • Key Levels: o Support: 2470 (previous resistance turned support) o Resistance: 2500, 2505, 2516 • Volume Analysis: Suggests possible bullish pullback if strong volume candles appear. ________________________________________ Four-Hour Timeframe • Support and Resistance Zones: Established • Key Levels: Resistance at 2550-2560, support at lower zones • Trading Opportunity: Buy above resistance, sell below support • Forecast: Bullish target of 2550-2560, but bearish scenario if key levels are breached. ________________________________________ Short-Term (H4/H1) Analysis • Rejection Candles: Formed on high volume, indicating potential buying. • Key Levels: o Support: 2497, 2500, 2505 o Resistance: 2510, 2514, 2516 ________________________________________ Trading Plan • Sell Zone Confirmation: sell were confirmed twice from the upper trigger line (H4). • Structure and Trend: o Bullish: Stay bullish as long as the structure is bullish. o Bearish: Switch to bearish if structure changes. • 2470 Level: Critical support; bullish stance remains unless price closes below it. • Long-Term Buy: Expected if a breakout occurs, with potential for thousands of pips. • Bullish Target: 2550-2560 • Bearish Scenario: Reversal possible if resistance holds, leading to downward spikes. ________________________________________ Important Price Levels and Their Importance: • 2450-2460: Critical range on the weekly chart; represents current bullish zone. Strong resistance zone; target for bullish moves, with bearish potential if price reverses. • 2470: Key support level; critical to maintaining a bullish stance. • 2497, 2500, 2505: Support levels on short-term charts; key for maintaining upward momentum. • 2510, 2514, 2516: Resistance levels on short-term charts; indication for possible price rejection. These price levels are crucial for traders to watch for potential entry and exit points in both bullish and bearish scenarios.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by mrshafaq
XAU/USD 9-13 September 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: Swing Structure: Bullish. Internal Structure: Bullish. Price has continued to print all time highs with no indication of bearish pullback phase initiation. The first indication of pullback will be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted with a blue dotted line. I have previously mentioned that price could print further highs which would bring CHOCH positioning closer to current price and this is what price printed again in last week's weekly analysis, However, CHoCH positioning remains the same. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. On Tuesday 20 August 2024 price printed all time high. Thursday 22 August 2024 price printed a bearish CHoCH which indicated bearish pullback phase initiation. Printing of bearish CHoCH has also confirmed internal range. Thus far, over a period of 12-days, price has been unable break weak internal high which is an indicator that price may seek further liquidity before attempting to target weak internal high again. I would expect price to either react at discount of internal 50% EQ or Daily demand zone before targeting weak internal high. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: Intraday expectation, analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 August 2024. -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a bullish iBOS. After an iBOS (Internal Break of Structure) we expect a bearish pullback. Price has printed bearish CHoCH which indicates, but not confirms bearish pullback phase initiation Intraday expectation: Whilst price did continue bearish as part of bearish pullback phase, I am concerned that price has not, as yet, pulled back deep enough into either H4 demand zone or discount of 50% EQ, therefore, it is my view that price will seek further liquidity before a sustained bullish move to target weak internal high. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
NFP Data: Key Trading Opportunities for Gold Gold has returned to around 2520, with resistance still quite evident. With only one and a half hours left before the data release, market volatility is expected to remain limited. Based on yesterday's data, the likelihood of today’s data being bullish is higher. There are two trading strategies to consider: The first is to go long before the data release, but keep a tight stop-loss to guard against a surprise bearish outcome. If there’s a profit, close the position promptly. I estimate that if the data is bullish, the price could rise by approximately $15. The second approach is to wait for the data release and then enter a short position, aiming for a medium-term trade. Given that the current price is already at a relatively high level, even if there is a spike after the data release, it will be challenging for the price to maintain a sustained upward trend.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Mia-Signal
XAUUSD: NFP data is coming, how to make a trading plan?Yesterday's ADP data showed an increase of 99,000 jobs, the lowest since January 2021, significantly lower than the expected 145,000 and the previous value of 122,000. This provided a significant positive for gold. Fortunately, the subsequent initial jobless claims and two PMI data were negative, which suppressed the rise of gold and prevented the expectation of a consistent recession in all economic data. It is precisely because of this that the price of gold fell to our buying range of 2500-2505 and then rose again, giving us the opportunity to buy at 2505 and take profits at 2516. There are less than two weeks before the Fed's September rate cut, whether it is a 25 basis point or 50 basis point cut. Today's NFP data will play a decisive role. Everyone must pay attention to it. The fluctuation may be very large at that time. Everyone knows the importance of the monthly NFP data, and I don't need to explain too much. Therefore, today's technical reference is not as significant as the data. Everything has to wait for the results of the data release, so it is difficult to judge. Given the uncertainty in today's market, I can't give you a specific trading strategy in advance, because it needs to be adjusted according to the actual market conditions. But I prefer to wait for a pullback and buy bullish, or make a trading plan based on the data performance after the data is released. I hope the above strategy is useful to everyone. In fact, you can be more cautious and give up today's trading, or make a trading plan based on the specific market trend after the data is released.
TVC:GOLDLong
by AntonyTP
21
SL Triggered, NFP Incoming: Will Gold Push to New Highs?Yesterday, I took a stop loss, which is, of course, a normal part of trading. What’s ironic, though, is that overall, I’m bullish on Gold. Even more ironic is the fact that in my Monday analysis, I mentioned that Gold would likely test the 2480 zone before continuing its upward trend. I even spotted the 'double Pin Bar formation' at the bottom, yet I remained short. Ultimately, my ego and the desire 'to be right'—thinking Gold would dip to the 2450 zone before reversing—got the best of me. Anyway, let’s move on to today’s analysis... As I mentioned earlier, after Gold fell into the significant support area around 2480 on Tuesday, the price bounced back to the upside. The following day, despite another wave of selling pressure, the price reversed again, leaving behind a 'Double Pin Bar' formation on the chart. Yesterday, the price broke above the 2505-2507 zone, which also confirmed a short-term double bottom formation. At the time of this article’s publication, the price stands at 2518, and the entire structure we’ve discussed is highly bullish. Looking ahead, as long as the 2505 level holds, the chances for a new all-time high are very strong. The measured target, should 2530 be breached, is 2590. Currently, I’m 'out of the market,' awaiting the NFP data for further clarification. I will update my analysis accordingly once the data is released.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Mihai_Iacob
Long on Gold (XAUUSD) – 30-Minute TimeframeWe’ve initiated a long position on Gold (XAUUSD) on the 30-minute timeframe following a recent pullback. The current bullish momentum suggests a continuation towards the previous daily high, with the potential for a new all-time high. This trade is positioned ahead of upcoming impact news, which may favor gold. Key Levels: • Entry: The long position is entered after the pullback, with confirmation of bullish momentum resuming. • Target: The initial target is the previous daily high, with the possibility of extending towards a new all-time high if the bullish momentum continues. The news events scheduled from today to tomorrow could further drive this upward movement. • Stop-Loss: Placed below the recent support level to protect against downside risk and ensure a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. Rationale: The decision to go long is based on the strong bullish momentum observed after the recent pullback. Gold has shown resilience, and with upcoming economic data releases, there’s a potential for further upside. The previous daily high serves as a key resistance level, but if broken, it could pave the way for a new all-time high. Risk Management: As the trade progresses, consider moving the stop-loss to break even or closer to the entry point to lock in profits and minimize risk. Partial profits can be taken as the price approaches the initial target, allowing for a more conservative approach while still capitalizing on potential further gains. Additional Considerations: Monitor the upcoming economic news closely, as it may significantly impact the direction of gold. Be prepared to adjust the trade strategy based on how the market reacts to these events. Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AR33_
2