Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD Plan for June 26, 2025
🌀 Wave Structure
On the H1 chart, our previous plan anticipated price movement within green wave 3. However, the current price action lacks the sharp, impulsive characteristics typically seen in wave 3. Instead, the overlapping structure of minor waves suggests that we may not be in wave 3. This leads us to consider two primary scenarios:
🔹 Scenario 1 – abc Correction (black):
Price may be forming wave c (black). However, due to the overlapping nature of recent price moves, it is likely that wave c is developing as an ending diagonal (wedge).
➡️ Confirmation signal: A sharp, steep decline that breaks below the 3297 level would signal that wave c has completed.
🎯 Target zone for wave c: 3352 – 3356
🔹 Scenario 2 – Leading Diagonal in Wave 1:
The overlapping price structure could also be forming a leading diagonal (3-3-3-3-3) as wave 1. In this case, price is currently in wave 3 or 4 of this formation.
➡️ Once wave 1 completes, we expect a retracement to the 0.618 Fibonacci level of the entire wave 1 – forming wave 2.
🎯 Target zone for the end of wave 1: 3352 – 3356
📉 Momentum Analysis
Momentum plays a crucial role in determining which wave structure is unfolding.
D1 Timeframe: Momentum is turning upward from the oversold zone – indicating that the downtrend may be ending. This supports the scenario of a leading diagonal wave 1 and suggests we may see a sustained bullish move over the next 5 days.
H4 Timeframe: Momentum is preparing to reverse downward from the overbought zone. This is a key signal to monitor today, especially during tonight’s news events.
If price continues to move sideways within a wedge, it would support the leading diagonal scenario.
If price breaks down sharply, it would favor the abc correction scenario.
🧭 Trade Plan
🔻 Sell Zone: 3352 – 3355
⛔️ Stop Loss: 3362
🎯 Take Profit 1: 3333
🎯 Take Profit 2: 3323
📌 The market’s behavior during the U.S. session tonight will be critical in confirming the wave structure. Stay alert and ready to adjust the trade plan accordingly.
Xauusdwave
Start going long on goldAlthough gold is under pressure and weak at present, gold still rebounded near 3295 under the influence of yesterday's major negative news, proving that there is still a large amount of buying funds below, limiting the retracement space of gold; and from 3295 to 3335, there is still a rebound space of $40, proving that gold is not extremely weak. Moreover, there is a gap left above, and there is a technical need to rebound to fill the gap;
In addition, yesterday gold fell sharply due to news, and there should be many longs trapped in the market. If gold is relatively stable, there may be self-rescue behavior of the trapped longs, so gold longs still have the opportunity to rebound to 3340-3350. At present, the main focus is on the short-term support area of 3315-3305, and we can moderately consider going long on gold in this area.
GOLD XAUUSD TRADING STRATEGY June 27, 2025XAUUSD Gold Trading Strategy June 27, 2025:
Yesterday's trading session broke the uptrend channel when it failed to break the resistance of 3350 - 3355. As we predicted, when it failed to break the resistance of 3350 - 3355, the gold price would create a triple peak pattern in the H1 frame and immediately after that, the gold price fell sharply in today's trading session.
Fundamental analysis: The US quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) decreased by 0.5%, lower than the forecast of 0.2%, showing that the US economy is clearly weakening. This news supported the price of USD, causing the gold price to fall sharply.
Technical analysis: After breaking the uptrend channel in the 3320 - 3325 area, the gold price created a triple peak pattern in H1 and fell sharply; the downtrend has not been broken yet. We will wait for trading opportunities at resistance zones to trade.
Important price zones today: 3324 - 3329, 3350 - 3355 and 3270 - 3275.
Today's trading trend: SELL.
Recommended orders:
Plan 1: SELL XAUUSD zone 3327 - 3329
SL 3334
TP 3324 - 3314 - 3300 - 3280.
Plan 2: SELL XAUUSD zone 3353 - 3355
SL 3358
TP 3350 - 3340 - 3320 - 3300.
Plan 3: BUY XAUUSD zone 3270 - 3272
SL 3267
TP 3275 - 3285 - 3300 - 3320.
Wish you a safe and profitable trading day.🌟🌟🌟🌟🌟
Gold volatility intensifies. Waiting for direction?The price of gold fluctuated greatly this week, which means that the end point of sentiment will not disappear so easily for the time being; in the short-term K-line pattern, there are continuous ups and downs. If you want to trade steadily, you can wait and see for a while.
From the hourly chart, the MA5-day and 10-day moving averages cross downward, and the RS indicator hovers around 40.7. This shows that the market trend is weak. The current price has bottomed out near 3310 and rebounded to fluctuate around 3320. The price may continue to decline after a slight rebound.
Today, focus on the long opportunities near 3305 and the pressure position above 3345.
Quaid has always believed that only by insisting on detailed analysis of the market and reducing losses, can we slowly accumulate the principal of the account.
Good luck to everyone.
Gold continues to fluctuate. Waiting for a trend?Today, gold has been suppressed below the high of 3345, and the hourly line tends to be weak. Looking at the number of Yin and Yang lines on the hourly line during the fluctuation, we can see that the typical Yin line is continuous and the Yang line is few, plus the weak suppression of the previous day, from the rhythm point of view, it is a weak signal.
From the hourly chart, around 3312, this is the 0.618 position of the retracement of the 3295-3337 fluctuation range. The decline is slow during the day, and the 0.618 position has become a support rebound.
And the current trend, like the previous day, may continue to rebound and then fall. At the same time, there was no cyclical decline in the early Asian session. Instead, it fluctuated sideways, bottomed out and rebounded, and then continued to return to the high of the previous day.
Judging from the current market situation, the Asian market bottomed out and rebounded in the morning, reaching a high of around 3343, and then began to fall back, and is currently fluctuating around 3335.
The trend of the European session is very critical, and the focus is on the watershed below 3328. If this position falls below, the price will most likely continue to fall.
Operation strategy:
Short around 3340, stop loss 3350, profit range 3320-3310.
Gold may continue to rebound to 3350-3360If gold can stand above 3330 today, it will stimulate long trading behavior to a certain extent, especially the self-rescue behavior of trapped longs. Gold may continue to rebound and is expected to reach the 3345-3355 area. So there is no need to risk shorting gold near 3330 for the time being; although gold may continue to rebound, it is still under pressure in the 3350-3360-3370 area; and gold is still weak overall, so we can consider shorting gold in the 3350-3360 area and look at the target area of 3325-3315.
The Premium privilege of my account will end on June 26, and it will stop updating here from tomorrow. Friends in the channel have already made a lot of money by following my trading strategy. Friends who have not joined yet can join and receive the latest trading strategies and trading signals as soon as possible to escort your trading!
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD Plan for June 25, 2025🌀 Elliott Wave Structure
Looking at the H1 chart, we can see a 5-wave black triangle structure has formed within wave Y. This suggests two possible scenarios:
Scenario 1: Wave Y has completed → the current upward move is wave 1 of a new 5-wave green structure. The ongoing pullback would then be wave 2 of this sequence.
Scenario 2: Wave A of wave Y has completed as a 5-wave move → we are now in wave B of wave Y, which typically forms a 3-wave pattern. In this case, wave a (black) has formed and wave b (black) is currently developing.
✅ In both scenarios, the ongoing decline is a shared element — representing a buying opportunity.
🎯 Key Target Zones
Target 1: 3313 – 3310
Target 2: 3301
⚠️ If price breaks below 3297, the current wave count is invalidated, and we must prepare for a deeper correction. Updates will follow if that happens.
🔁 Momentum Outlook
D1 Timeframe:
Momentum is about to reverse upward. We expect at least 5–6 days of bullish movement for D1 momentum to reach overbought territory ⇒ This supports a potential short-term uptrend and favors both bullish wave counts.
H4 Timeframe:
Momentum is about to reverse downward from the overbought zone → A further decline to our buy zones is likely.
H1 Timeframe:
Momentum is currently declining → The ongoing pullback is expected to continue.
📌 What to wait for: A bullish reversal in H1 momentum aligned with H4 in the oversold region will confirm the bottom is in.
✅ Trade Plan
🔹 BUY ZONE 1: 3313 – 3310
• SL: 3306
• TP1: 3335 | TP2: 3350 | TP3: 3376
🔹 BUY ZONE 2: 3303 – 3301
• SL: 3296
• TP1: 3335 | TP2: 3363 | TP3: 3376
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD June 24, 2025
🌀 Wave Structure
Looking at the H1 chart during the Asian session today:
+ Price broke below the previous low at 3341, invalidating the idea that Friday’s rally marked the beginning of a new uptrend.
+ Instead, the rally appears to be forming a wave X in a larger WXY corrective structure.
+ Given the current complex corrective pattern, it’s challenging to precisely define the exact wave shape and targets.
🔻 Wave Y Structure:
+ The price action suggests the formation of a 5-wave decline, with the market currently in wave 4.
+ Wave 4 target zone: 3357 – 3363 → Sell zone.
+ After completing wave 4, we expect a continuation of the downtrend via wave 5, with a target around 3327 – 3324 → Buy zone.
+ Once wave 5 completes, we anticipate at least a corrective upward retracement, with targets at 3363 – 3376 (these are the TP levels for the buy trade).
⚡️ Momentum Analysis
+ D1 timeframe: Momentum is turning bullish, suggesting a potential rally lasting around 5–8 D1 candles after wave 5 finishes.
+ H4 timeframe: Momentum is declining and may enter oversold territory within 1–2 candles, supporting the completion of wave 5.
+ H1 timeframe: Momentum is rising and approaching overbought levels, indicating a likely end of wave 4 within 1–2 H1 candles.
📌 Trade Plan
🔹 SELL ZONE: 3363 – 3365
+ SL: 3373
+ TP1: 3342
+ TP2: 3330
🔹 BUY ZONE: 3327 – 3324
+ SL: 3317
+ TP1: 3342
+ TP2: 3363
+ TP3: 3376
+ Important Note:❗️
- If price reaches these zones with a Mazuboru candle (long-bodied candle with no wick) and fast volatility, do not enter immediately.
- Wait for the candle to close. If the zone breaks, keep an eye on the next support area around 3313 for potential reactions.
Dark moment for prices. Will it fall even lower?Information summary:
Due to the ceasefire in the 12-day war between Iran and Israel, market risk appetite has rebounded, demand for safe-haven assets has declined, and gold prices have plummeted. As an interest-free asset, gold prices are under pressure against the backdrop of declining risk aversion, but there is still buying support at low levels.
Investors are currently focusing on the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at a hearing of the House Financial Services Committee. Powell has been cautious about whether to cut interest rates in the near future.
Market analysis:
The current market selling sentiment has increased significantly, and for gold, falling has become the only path. It seems that the market has lost hope in gold, and the current gold price has fallen to around 3295, then rebounded slightly, and is currently fluctuating around 3313. The break of 3300 declares that gold still has further room to fall, and from the trend point of view, it is likely to continue to fall.
The current trend shows that the important support is around 3285. It is possible that it will fall directly to the current position. The Fed is still speaking, and it is unpredictable whether it will cause drastic fluctuations in gold in the future. However, from today's trend, shorting is the best solution at present, and the upper resistance position is in the range of 3315-3325.
Operation strategy:
Short around 3320, stop loss 3330, profit range 3290-3285.
Israel and Iran have a truce. Gold fluctuates sharply.Information summary:
Trump said on Truth Social that Israel and Iran have fully agreed and there will be a complete and thorough ceasefire. (About 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have finished and completed the last mission they are doing!).
After 12 hours, the war will be considered over. Iran will start a ceasefire first, and after the 12th hour, Israel will start a ceasefire, and 24 hours later, the world will salute the official end of this 12-day war.
Senior Iranian officials have confirmed that Tehran has agreed to a US-proposed ceasefire with Israel brokered by Qatar.
Market analysis:
From the current point of view of gold, the news market has been digested in the early Asian market, and gold has also fallen to around 3330. Now it is obvious that there may be a bottoming rebound.
But from the trend point of view, gold is still in the short position, and 3380 and 3400 have not been stabilized.
Judging from the current hourly chart, gold is likely to rebound to 3370-3380. Then it will quickly fall from this position to the early trading low of 3330. At the same time, we can also see that the trend near 3378 is at the Fibonacci 0.382 position. Moreover, the previous trend also rebounded from 3330 to 3380, and then fell back again.
So we need to be patient and wait for the price to rebound before going short. Of course, we can also choose an aggressive long strategy. Of course, we can also choose an aggressive long strategy.
Operation strategy:
Short near 3380, stop loss 3390, profit range 3350-3330.
Long near 3345, stop loss 3335, profit range 3370-3380.
Market Structure AnalysisMarket Structure Analysis
HH (Higher High) and HL (Higher Low) labels indicate the prior uptrend structure.
The recent price action shows consolidation and potential trend reversal or correction.
🟦
Highlighted Zones
Supply Zones (resistance): Marked in light teal rectangles near the top of price action (e.g., around 3,400).
Demand Zones (support): Marked below the current price (e.g., around 3,360 and lower near 3,320).
🔄
Ch0CH (Change of Character)
A “Ch0CH” label is marked — this typically signals a potential shift in market structure (e.g., from bullish to bearish).
This is further supported by the price breaking below a previous higher low.
📉
Trade Setup
Red Zone: Indicates the stop-loss region.
Green Zone: Indicates the take-profit target.
A short (sell) position is implied here, expecting price to drop from the current level to the lower demand zone.
🔁
Projected Price Path
A dotted white line projects a potential bearish move, with a minor retracement before continuation down to ~3,328.
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD Trade Plan for June 19, 2025🌀 Wave Structure
On the H4 timeframe, following a strong selloff, price is now consolidating within a narrow price channel — suggesting that we are currently in wave b (black) of an abc correction.
This structure implies that one more leg down is likely to complete wave c (black). However, due to the overlapping and sideways nature of the move, it's difficult to clearly identify the end points of waves a and b, making traditional Fibonacci targeting less effective.
➡️ To improve accuracy, we’re combining Volume Profile data with price action and have identified four key support zones:
3349, 3335, 3313, and 3297
Among these, we’re giving special attention to:
🎯 Target 1: 3335
🎯 Target 2: 3297
We'll wait for bullish momentum signals near these levels to increase the probability of catching the end of wave c.
🔋 Momentum Outlook
Daily (D1): Momentum is about to enter oversold territory. By the end of today or tomorrow, the daily candle is expected to confirm this — suggesting a weakening bearish trend.
H4: Also approaching oversold. If price is hovering around one of the key support levels (3349 | 3335 | 3313 | 3297) when this happens, and the D1 is already oversold, then we may be looking at a high-probability reversal zone.
H1: Nearly oversold as well — expect a short-term bounce soon. The best timing for a BUY will be when the H1 starts turning bullish while both the D1 and H4 are oversold.
✅ Trade Setup
🔹 Scenario 1
BUY ZONE: 3336 – 3333
SL: 3326
TP1 | TP2 | TP3: 3345 | 3378 | 3402
🔹 Scenario 2
BUY ZONE: 3300 – 3297
SL: 3290
TP1 | TP2 | TP3: 3313 | 3345 | 3402
⏳ Patience is key — wait for confluence between support zones and momentum reversals. That’s where the high-probability BUY setups emerge.
Data is about to be released. Will it affect the trend of gold?Information summary:
The Federal Reserve is about to announce the latest interest rate decision, and the market generally expects it to maintain the policy interest rate range of 4.25%-4.50% unchanged. Trump recently asked the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by one percentage point immediately. However, the market reacted cautiously to this, believing that a sharp interest rate cut may increase inflation risks, especially in the context of Middle East conflicts pushing up oil prices.
Fed Chairman Powell's statement at the press conference will become the focus of market attention. The market expects the Fed to maintain a "cautious and patient" tone, and the guidance on the interest rate outlook may be vague.
Market analysis:
Technical indicators, from the daily chart, the support level is near the 10-day moving average and the 20-day moving average, and the 3365-3345 range forms an important support. In terms of resistance, yesterday's high near 3405 constitutes a key resistance above. If the price wants to reverse the current weak pattern, it needs to break through this resistance level strongly to open up the upward space.
From the 1-hour chart, the price started to fall after reaching a high point, and maintained stability in the upper and lower ranges; it is now close to the low point in the early trading, and the trend is relatively slow.
In the absence of an upward or downward breakthrough, we still follow the strategy of selling high and buying low.
Short around 3400, stop loss 3410, profit range 3380-3365;
Long around 3365 when the price falls back, stop loss 3355, profit range 3380-3400.
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD | June 18, 2025🌀 Current Wave Structure on H4
The recent drop has broken below the previously labeled wave 1 zone, requiring an adjustment to our wave count. Following the abc corrective move (black), a potential triangle formation is emerging.
At this point, we’re monitoring two possible scenarios:
🔹 Scenario 1 – Triangle as a Wave X Correction:
Price is forming an abcde triangle, potentially part of a larger WXY corrective structure. If this plays out, we may see a strong decline forming wave Y, targeting a break below 3297, and possibly extending to 3248.
🔹 Scenario 2 – Leading Diagonal Triangle as Wave 1:
If this is a leading diagonal triangle for wave 1, then wave 1 is likely completed, and we are currently in wave 2. In this scenario, price should hold above 3248, with likely support zones around 3335 or 3300.
🎯 Key Price Zones & Resistance Levels
Major Resistance: 3389 – 3402 (based on volume profile) – prime area for potential short setups.
Short-term Resistance Levels: 3389, 3402, 3412 – watch for reversal signals here.
🔻 Momentum Outlook
Daily (D1): Momentum is declining and expected to enter oversold territory within 2 candles – indicating a weakening downtrend and supporting the leading diagonal scenario.
H4: Momentum is preparing to turn bearish – supports short opportunities.
H1: Already turned bullish – suggests a possible corrective bounce before the next drop.
📌 Trade Plan
🔴 Sell Zone: 3400 – 3403
• SL: 3410
• TP1: 3365
• TP2: 3335
🟢 Buy Zone 1: 3335 – 3332
• SL: 3325
• TP1: 3365
• TP2: 3402
🟢 Buy Zone 2: 3302 – 3209
• SL: 3292
• TP1: 3335
• TP2: 3365
• TP3: 3402
showing a descending wedge (falling wedge) pattern formingThis is a 30-minute (M30) chart of XAUUSD (Gold vs. US Dollar), showing a descending wedge (falling wedge) pattern forming, which is a classic bullish reversal setup.
Chart Description:
Pattern Formed:
Descending wedge is clearly drawn with:
Lower highs and lower lows, converging between two trendlines.
Price action is respecting both boundaries of the wedge.
Current price is mid-range inside the wedge.
Projected Price Path (Dotted Arrows):
The chart suggests:
A possible fakeout or final dip towards the wedge's lower boundary.
Followed by a rejection and bullish breakout.
Target would likely be above 3,392+, possibly aiming toward the wedge's origin zone (~3,408 or higher).
Market Implication:
This setup is typically bullish, especially if:
Volume increases near the lower edge.
Price fails to make a new low and starts printing bullish structure (HL → HH).
Summary:
XAUUSD is consolidating inside a falling wedge on the 30m chart, suggesting potential for a bullish breakout. Traders may anticipate one last liquidity sweep before a breakout toward higher resistance levels.
Seize the opportunity to short gold after the reboundBecause gold fell back to the expected support area of 3375-3365 first, I just took the opportunity to go long on gold near 3372 and set TP: 3390. Obviously, our long position ended the transaction by hitting TP, and we made a profit of 180pips.
At present, gold continues to rebound to around 3396, and is facing the short-term resistance area of 3395-3405, and the upside may be limited. And I think before the Fed's interest rate decision and Powell's monetary policy conference, gold is likely to maintain a range of fluctuations, and the willingness of both long and short parties to break through may not be strong in the short term. And from the current structure, gold tends to fluctuate downward as a whole.
So for short-term trading, we might as well try to short gold in the resistance area. I think it is still very likely to retreat to at least the 3385-3380 area.
Tend to short gold, it may still retrace to 3360-3350 areaAt present, gold as a whole is still fluctuating in the 3395-3365 area. In the short term, both long and short sides are not willing to break through. They may be waiting for the guidance of the Fed's interest rate decision and Powell's monetary policy press conference. However, from the current oscillation structure, because the high point of gold rebound and the low point of retracement are gradually moving downward, the center of gravity of the candlestick chart is shifting downward, and the weight of gold shorts is slightly higher.
From the current structure, 3395-3405 has become a new round of pressure area. Gold has been unable to break through for a long time, and has tried to accelerate downward many times during the retracement process. Although it can stabilize above 3375-3365, it may be easier to break through below after several tests. Once the 3375-3365 area is broken, gold may even continue to move to the 3360-3350 area.
Therefore, within the 3395-3365 oscillation range, we can temporarily maintain the trading rhythm of selling high and buying low in the short term, while we must pay attention to the breakthrough of gold. Once gold breaks through, the trend may be continued, and we need to follow the trend to execute transactions!
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD June 16, 2025
🌀 Elliott Wave Structure
On the H1 timeframe, price is forming a 5-wave structure (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) in green, with the market currently in wave 4.
Last Friday, after breaking above the 3444 high, price failed to continue toward 3482 and instead reversed lower. This behavior suggests that wave 4 is developing as a Flat correction in black abc structure.
👉 Based on this outlook, wave c is expected to complete around 3314, marking the end of wave 4 in green. From there, a bullish impulse is anticipated to complete wave 5.
🔎 Momentum Overview
D1 timeframe: Momentum is rising → indicating the dominant trend for early this week is likely bullish.
H4 timeframe: Momentum is declining → supporting the scenario that wave c of wave 4 may still have one more leg down.
H1 timeframe: Momentum is about to turn downward → suggesting a potential drop during the Asian session on Monday.
🚨 However, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could trigger unexpected price spikes, especially during the Asian session.
📈 Trade Plan
Buy Zone: 3415 – 3412
Stop Loss: 3405
Take Profit 1: 3444
Take Profit 2: 3482
Gold will inevitably fall after risingGold has risen sharply due to the violent geopolitical conflicts and the surge in risk aversion. It once reached around 3445, but in the process of falling back, it only touched 3408 and rebounded again, stabilizing above 3400. It is obvious that due to the changes in fundamentals, the sentiment of gold bulls is high; although the upward momentum of gold near 3440 has weakened, there is no clear signal of peaking yet!
For short-term trading, it is relatively difficult to participate at present. To be honest, I naturally don’t want to chase gold at a high level; but there are no more signals to support me to short gold for the time being. However, with the rebound of gold, the current short-term support below is in the 3425-3415 area, followed by the psychological support of the 3400 integer mark; and the short-term resistance above is in the 3455-3465 area, followed by the area near 3480.
Compared with the profit and loss ratio, I prefer shorting gold for short-term trading, because gold has performed relatively strongly in the London market. Logically, gold will have the inertia to rise in the New York market, so I think gold may rise and then fall in the New York market, so my current plan is to try shorting gold starting in the 3455-3465 area.
Because the changes in gold's fundamentals are more extreme and complex, you must set up SL when participating in transactions.
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD Trading Plan for June 13, 2025🌀 Wave Structure Overview
As anticipated in previous plans, a strong bullish move has unfolded. Unfortunately, wave 2 within wave 3 was extremely sharp, triggering our stop loss — but that’s part of trading. Not every market movement will go perfectly as planned.
Currently, by closely observing wave 3, we can see that each bullish leg has shown similar length. This suggests a high probability of an extended wave, possibly wave 3 or wave 5.
In Elliott Wave theory, extended waves are the most difficult to predict in terms of where they will end. That’s why selling against the trend (“standing in front of the train”) is discouraged. Instead, we should rely on corrective structures to find buy opportunities in line with the main trend.
On the chart, the price is showing a 5-wave structure (i ii iii iv v) in purple. There’s also a possibility that wave iii itself is extending, forming 5 smaller waves, making a total of 9 subwaves — all with similar bullish momentum. This reinforces the potential for an extended wave in progress.
🎯 Target Zone for Wave iv Correction (Purple)
Watch levels: 3419 and 3411
This is the ideal zone to look for buying opportunities aligned with the prevailing uptrend.
📉 Momentum Analysis
- Daily (D1): Momentum remains bullish, which supports the continuation of the upward trend — a key requirement for a sustained wave move.
- H4: Momentum is currently in the overbought zone and may remain there for a while, waiting for D1 to also reach overbought. However, this also signals a potential risk of reversal that should not be ignored.
- H1: Momentum has turned downward, which supports the idea that wave iv is forming.
✅ Trade Plan
BUY ZONE: 3415 – 3412
STOP LOSS: 3405
TAKE PROFITS:
TP1: 3428
TP2: 3444
TP3: 3480
📌 Note: Stick to trend-following trades and avoid counter-trend positions that try to "catch the top." Be patient, wait for clear confirmation signals around wave iv’s zone, and manage your risk carefully.
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD (June 12, 2025)🌀 Wave Structure
According to yesterday's plan, the green abc corrective wave likely completed around the 3293 level. The subsequent bullish move is considered Wave 1 in a triangle form, and last night’s news helped Wave 5 hit the target, yielding over 200 pips in profit.
After that, price corrected in a black abc structure. Although the CPI release printed a sharp H1 wick (alongside overlapping waves supporting sellers), the price reversed sharply to the upside — further reinforcing the idea that the correction phase has ended.
Currently, price is testing the previous green Wave b high at 3375.954. A break and close above this level could strengthen the bullish wave scenario. If Wave 1 is indeed a triangle, Wave 3 may extend strongly, with a potential upside target near 3428.
In the short term, price may be forming Wave 1 within Wave 3, and we are watching two key zones:
3358 – 3355
3390 – 3393
⚠️ If price breaks and closes below 3350, the current wave count will be invalidated, and we will shift to a deeper corrective scenario. I will update accordingly to avoid confusion.
🔍 Momentum Outlook
D1: Momentum is rising, supporting the continuation of Wave 3 into next week.
H4: Still bullish; needs 1–2 more candles to reach the overbought zone.
H1: Currently overbought → possible pullback if price hits the 3390–3393 resistance.
⏱️ Bearish momentum reversal at 3390–3393 → confluence zone for a SELL setup
⏱️ Bullish momentum reversal at 3358–3355 → confluence zone for a BUY setup
🎯 Trading Plan
BUY ZONE: 3358 – 3355
SL: 3348
TP1: 3375 | TP2: 3389
SELL ZONE: 3390 – 3393
SL: 3404
TP1: 3375 | TP2: 3358
Insist on shorting gold on ralliesToday we made a total profit of 350 pips in 2 short trades. First, we shorted gold near 3345, and when gold fell to around 3330, we manually closed the order to lock in profits; the second time, gold rebounded sharply with the help of CPI data, and we seized the opportunity to short gold again near 3360, and ended the transaction by hitting TP: 3340. We accurately grasped the profit of gold shorting.
At present, gold is in a narrow range of fluctuations near the 3330 mark. Relatively speaking, gold is still in a weak position. Although gold has rebounded sharply with the help of the positive CPI data, it has shown a long upper shadow in the candle chart due to the rapid retracement, which has strengthened the resistance above and limited the rebound space of gold in the short term. In addition, the morphological structure shows signs of building a head and shoulders top structure. The resistance area in the short term is 3345-3355; followed by 3360-3370. Although gold is currently in a narrow range of fluctuations near the 3330 mark, it does not show obvious signs of support. It is easy to fall below the area near 3330 in a weak situation. The relatively strong support is in the 3320-3310 area, followed by the area near 3300-3290.
So for short-term trading, I still advocate taking the 3345-3355 area as resistance first and continue to short gold!