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XAU/USD 09-13 December 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: Swing Structure -> Bullish. Internal Structure -> Bullish. Analysis/Bias remains the same as analysis dated 01 December 2024. Price Action Analysis: In my analysis dated 27 October 2024, it was noted that the first sign of a pullback would be a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), indicated by a blue dotted line. Price's consistent upward momentum had positioned this CHoCH much closer to recent price levels as expected for weeks. Now, for the first time since 23 November 2020, price has printed a bearish CHoCH. We are currently trading within a defined internal range. Price is anticipated to trade down towards either the discount of the internal 50% Equilibrium (EQ), highlighted in blue, or the Weekly demand zone before targeting the weak internal high. Note: It is highly unlikely price will "crash" as many analysts are predicting. My view is this is merely a corrective wave of the primary trend. Given the Federal Reserve's dovish policy stance alongside heightened geopolitical risks, market volatility is likely to remain elevated, influencing intraday price swings. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: -> Swing -> Bullish. -> Internal -> Bullish. Analysis/Bias remains the same as analysis dated 01 December 2024 Price Action Analysis: Price has shown a reaction from discount of internal 50% EQ. Currently price has been unable to target the weak internal high Given the current internal range dynamics, price is expected to target weak internal high, priced at 2,790.170 However, considering the signs of a pullback phase on the Weekly timeframe, there remains a possibility of price printing a bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS). Price has yet to tap into Daily demand. Note: With the Fed maintaining a dovish policy stance and the continued rise in geopolitical tensions, we should anticipate elevated market volatility, which may impact both intraday and longer-term price action. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bearish. -> Internal: Bullish. Bias/analysis remains the same as analysis dated 25 November 2024. Price Action Analysis: As mentioned in yesterday's analysis dated 24 November 2024, whereby price was expected to print a bearish CHoCH. This is how price printed. Currently, price is trading within an established internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price is anticipated to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, which is marked in blue, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 2,721.420. Note: With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAU/USD 02-06 December 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: Swing Structure -> Bullish. Internal Structure -> Bullish. Price Action Analysis: In my analysis dated 27 October 2024, it was noted that the first sign of a pullback would be a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), indicated by a blue dotted line. Price's consistent upward momentum had positioned this CHoCH much closer to recent price levels as expected for weeks. Now, for the first time since 23 November 2020, price has printed a bearish CHoCH. We are currently trading within a defined internal range. Price is anticipated to trade down towards either the discount of the internal 50% Equilibrium (EQ), highlighted in blue, or the Weekly demand zone before targeting the weak internal high. Note: It is highly unlikely price will "crash" as many analysts are predicting. My view is this is merely a corrective wave of the primary trend. Given the Federal Reserve's dovish policy stance alongside heightened geopolitical risks, market volatility is likely to remain elevated, influencing intraday price swings. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: -> Swing -> Bullish. -> Internal -> Bullish. Price Action Analysis: Price has shown a reaction from discount of internal 50% EQ. Currently price has been unable to target the weak internal high Given the current internal range dynamics, price is expected to target weak internal high, priced at 2,790.170 However, considering the signs of a pullback phase on the Weekly timeframe, there remains a possibility of price printing a bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS). Price has yet to tap into Daily demand. Note: With the Fed maintaining a dovish policy stance and the continued rise in geopolitical tensions, we should anticipate elevated market volatility, which may impact both intraday and longer-term price action. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bearish. -> Internal: Bullish. Bias/analysis remains the same as analysis dated 25 November 2024. Price Action Analysis: As mentioned in yesterday's analysis dated 24 November 2024, whereby price was expected to print a bearish CHoCH. This is how price printed. Currently, price is trading within an established internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price is anticipated to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, which is marked in blue, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 2,721.420. Note: With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
3
XAU/USD 25-29 November 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: Swing Structure -> Bullish. Internal Structure -> Bullish. Price Action Analysis: In my analysis dated 27 October 2024, it was noted that the first sign of a pullback would be a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), indicated by a blue dotted line. Price's consistent upward momentum had positioned this CHoCH much closer to recent price levels as expected for weeks. Now, for the first time since 23 November 2020, price has printed a bearish CHoCH. We are currently trading within a defined internal range. Price is projected to move downward toward either the discount of the internal 50% Equilibrium (EQ), highlighted in blue, or the Weekly demand zone before targeting the weak internal high. Note: Given the Federal Reserve's dovish policy stance alongside heightened geopolitical risks, market volatility is likely to remain elevated, influencing intraday price swings. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: -> Swing -> Bullish. -> Internal -> Bullish. Price Action Analysis: After printing bearish CHoCH to indicate bearish pullback phase initiation, price traded down to discount of 50% internal EQ. Given the current internal range dynamics, price is expected to target weak internal high, priced at 2,790.170 However, considering the signs of a pullback phase on the Weekly timeframe, there remains a possibility of price printing a bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS). Price has yet to tap into Daily demand. Note: With the Fed maintaining a dovish policy stance and the continued rise in geopolitical tensions, we should anticipate elevated market volatility, which may impact both intraday and longer-term price action. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bearish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price Action Analysis: In my analysis dated 22 November 2024, the internal structure was bearish, with an expectation for price to target the weak internal low. However, this scenario did not materialise as price printed a bullish iBOS by the close of 22 November 2024. This could be attributed to escalating geopolitical tensions across multiple fronts. The CHoCH positioning, marked by a blue dotted line, us currently close but may be repositioned, as there are currently no definitive signs of pullback initiation. Note: With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish policy stance, ongoing and increasing geopolitical uncertainties, Gold prices are likely to experience continued elevated volatility. Traders should exercise caution and refine their risk management strategies to navigate this high-volatility environment effectively. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAU/USD 18-22 November 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: Swing Structure -> Bullish. Internal Structure -> Bullish. Price Action Analysis: In my analysis dated 27 October 2024, it was noted that the first sign of a pullback would be a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), indicated by a blue dotted line. Price's consistent upward momentum had positioned this CHoCH much closer to recent price levels as expected for weeks. Now, for the first time since 23 November 2020, price has printed a bearish CHoCH. We are currently trading within a defined internal range. Price is projected to move downward toward either the discount of the internal 50% Equilibrium (EQ), highlighted in blue, or the Weekly demand zone before targeting the weak internal high. Note: Given the Federal Reserve's dovish policy stance alongside heightened geopolitical risks, market volatility is likely to remain elevated, influencing intraday price swings. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: -> Swing -> Bullish. -> Internal -> Bullish. Price Action Analysis: In my weekly analysis dated 27 October 2024, I forecasted that price could potentially make new highs, thereby shifting the bearish Change of Character (CHoCH) closer to recent price action. This repositioning would serve as a trigger for a bearish pullback phase initiation. As anticipated, this scenario unfolded with CHoCH shifting nearer to the current price and ultimately printing a bearish CHoCH. Currently, price is trading within an established internal range (highlighted in blue), trading in the discount zone of the internal 50% Equilibrium (EQ) and approaching a Daily demand zone, where a reaction is likely. Given the current internal range dynamics, price is expected to react upon reaching the Daily demand zone and could trade upward to target the daily internal high. However, considering the signs of a pullback phase on the Weekly timeframe, there remains a possibility of price printing a bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS). Note: With the Fed maintaining a dovish policy stance and the continued rise in geopolitical tensions, we should anticipate elevated market volatility, which may impact both intraday and longer-term price action. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: -> Swing -> Bearish. -> Internal -> Bearish. Price Action Analysis: Analysis remains the same as previous bias from my analysis dated 12 November 2024. Price has printed both a bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS) and a subsequent bearish Break of Structure (BOS), confirming the need for a pullback across all higher timeframes (HTFs). Currently, price action remains in alignment with the broader HTF pullback requirements. Intraday Expectation: The expectation for the intraday session is that price will print a bullish Change of Character (CHoCH) to indicate the initiation of a bullish pullback phase. The positioning of this bullish CHoCH is indicated by the blue dotted line on the chart. However, it is also possible that price could extend to a new low, bringing the CHoCH positioning much closer to the current price action. Note: Given the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold prices is anticipated to persist. We should exercise caution and remain vigilant in this high-volatility environment. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAU/USD 11-15 November 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: Swing Structure: Bullish. Internal Structure: Bullish. Analysis/bias remains the same as analysis dated 27 October 2024 Price has continued its surge, reaching new all-time highs with no signs yet of bearish pullback phase initiation. The initial indication of a pullback would be a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), marked by a blue dotted line. Price's ongoing ascent has now positioned CHoCH significantly closer to most recent price action. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Gold's price has maintained its upward surge after printing a bullish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS), fueled by softer U.S. macroeconomic data and intensified geopolitical tensions. In my weekly analysis dated 27 October 2024, I mentioned that price could potentially reach new highs, moving the bearish CHoCH positioning closer to current price. This shift would create a realistic opportunity for price to indicate the start of a bearish pullback phase. This forecast played out as expected, with CHoCH positioning repositioned significantly nearer to recent price action subsequently printing a bearish CHOCH. Price is now trading within an established internal range. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. Analysis/Intraday expectation remains the same as analysis dated 08 November 2024. Price has now printed a bullish CHoCH indicating bullish pullback phase initiation. Price has reacted from premium of 50% established internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price is expected to weak internal low priced at 2,643.355 Note: Due to the Fed’s softer stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, we should remain mindful that volatility in Gold is likely to persist. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAU/USD 28 October - 01 November 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: Swing Structure: Bullish. Internal Structure: Bullish. Price has continued its surge, reaching new all-time highs with no signs yet of bearish pullback phase initiation. The initial indication of a pullback would be a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), marked by a blue dotted line. Price's ongoing ascent has now positioned CHoCH significantly closer to most recent price action. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has sustained its upward surge since printing a bullish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS), driven by softer U.S. macroeconomic data and heightened geopolitical tensions. Following bullish iBOS, a bearish pullback is anticipated, though there are currently no signs of it materialising. The first indication, though not a confirmation, of a potential pullback would be price printing a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), which is marked by a blue dotted line. Price could potentially achieve new highs, bringing the bearish CHoCH positioning significantly closer to current price action. This proximity would provide a realistic opportunity for price to signal the initiation of a bearish pullback phase. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Gold’s rally persists amid the Fed’s dovish tone and heightened geopolitical tensions, solidifying its safe-haven appeal. Price has printed a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), signaling—but not yet confirming—the start of a bearish pullback phase. Intraday Expectation: Despite the bearish CHoCH, price has yet to pull back into the internal 50% EQ discount. We could see a reaction at the H4 supply level before any confirmation of bearish pullback initiation. Technical Note: The strong high at 2,758.525 is anticipated to remain protected. However, with CHoCH positioning on the daily timeframe somewhat distant, price may print a bullish iBOS in the near term to align with the daily timeframe’s movement. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAU/USD 21-25 October 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly analysis: Swing Structure: Bullish. Internal Structure: Bullish. Price has continued to print all-time highs and surge, with no signs of bearish pullback phase initiation. The first indication of a pullback would be price printing a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), marked by a blue dotted line. Price has continued to rise, bringing CHoCH positioning significantly closer to analysis dated 22 September 2024. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a bullish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS) and continued its upward surge, driven by soft U.S. macroeconomic data and increasing geopolitical tensions. Following the bullish iBOS, a bearish pullback is anticipated, though there are no current signs of it materialising. The first indication, but not a confirmation, of a pullback would be price printing a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH). Since last week's analysis, CHoCH positioning has been brought significantly closer to current price action. The bearish CHoCH level is denoted by a blue dotted line. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Since the last analysis, due to illness, price has printed both a bullish iBOS and a subsequent BOS. Driven by the Fed's dovish stance and escalating geopolitical tensions, gold, as a safe-haven asset, has continued its upward surge. The swing low has been brought significantly closer. A break of this swing low would confirm the initiation of a pullback phase across all higher timeframes (HTFs). Following the BOS and iBOS, we expect a pullback. The first indication, but not confirmation, would be price printing a bearish CHoCH, denoted by a blue dotted line. At this stage, there are no signs of a pullback, so price could continue higher to bring CHoCH positioning closer to current price action. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK