Xauuusd
The rise in gold prices is over, has the decline opened?Only when you experience setbacks in everything will you realize that it is not easy to get, and what you get easily always feels too simple to cherish. This is human nature.Success is not that you don't work hard enough, but you don't persevere enough. 99% of the way is finished, but it is easy to fall in front of 1% because you give up too early.
As the market digested the news of UBS's acquisition of Credit Suisse and the joint actions of the six major central banks such as the Federal Reserve, the market's risk aversion fell, and the gold price fell from the key mark of US 2,000 in volatile trading. It is currently trading near the 1964 line.
From the perspective of gold price trends, gold surged to a position near 2009 yesterday and then fell sharply by more than 40 US dollars, and finally closed a negative K line with a long upper shadow line. This pattern generally indicates that the pressure above has begun to increase sharply, and technical indicators show that the oversold resonance is very obvious.
Although there are obvious signs of a decline in gold prices at present, the trend formed by the large cycle is not easy to turn around in a short period of time, and market sentiment continues to be fragile, and the uncertain macro background will continue to attract gold buying.So I think there will be repeated situations here in the short term. Even if the bulls start again, they still need to repeatedly adjust the step-back confirmation process.
In the short-term treatment, the lower support is in the 1950-1955 area, and the upper resistance is in the 1980-1985 area.Operationally, high-throwing and low-suction operations can be carried out in this area.
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The gold bulls are weak, and the bears are about to strike?The data released that the annual CPI rate in the United States in February was in line with the expected value of 6%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous value; the annual core CPI rate in the United States in February was in line with the expected value of 5.50%, lower than the previous value of 5.60%.
The inflation data is in line with expectations, indicating that the market generally expects the Fed to continue to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in March and will not increase interest rates again.But overall, inflation has not fallen sharply, and this is not a strong data.Obviously, what the Fed has to consider now is financial stability.
At present, for the gold market, the Fed's policy outlook is divided in the market. On the one hand, the banking crisis may cause the Fed to slow down the pace of interest rate increases; on the other hand, the Fed is facing a severe inflation state, and it is still far from the 2% target. Raising interest rates is still the best way to reduce inflation.From the long-term perspective, the current banking crisis is only short-lived, and it is still difficult for the crisis to spread. Raising interest rates is still the best choice for the market to suppress inflation.
In terms of gold's trend, judging from the daily line, gold prices have been on the rise since March 8, and there has been no decent adjustment; in the past two days, gold has risen from a strong position on the 1870 line to the 1900 line and hit the 1914 line. At present, the US index has stopped the decline, and the gold rally has been blocked.To a certain extent, there is a gradual peaking rhythm, and I am optimistic that there will be a wave of effective adjustments in the near future. At present, the short-term support below 1896-1900 is the defensive line of the bulls, and once it breaks down, it will open up the downward space again.
Why do you frequently lose money when you invest in foreign exchange?
One: Counter-market operation: If you don't respect and fear the market, you will be overwhelmed by the market if you operate completely against the trend.
Second: Do not set a stop loss: Stop loss is a necessary means to control risk, and not setting a stop loss is tantamount to throwing away the money directly.
Third: Frequent operations: There is no trading plan, casual trading and frequent multiple transactions greatly increase the probability of loss.
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GOLD TRADE IDEA 15 MARCH 2023-CPI yesterday came out exactly as conesus on the YoY, MOM and Core YoY. Due to this already being forecasted and priced in. CPI had minimal impact and we had messier markets.
Overall though CPI is still at macro high levels YoY (6%), which is 3 times higher than the Feds 2% goal. The fight on inflation is far from over and the Feds will need to stay the course.
For the next meeting a 25BPS hike still has the highest probability.
-Gold held below 1912 during Asian and london session yesterday
Today's key economic events
> Retail sales MoM (previous 39%, consensus -0.39%).
> PPI MOM (previous 0.79%, consensus 0.39%).
> At the same time of PPI and retail sales (13:30 CET) we also have NY empire state manufacturing index,
Trade setup for the day.
Break below 1902 & 1897 we will be looking for sell.
Buys on break above 1912,
Deeper pullback sell @ 1924 & 1929.
High risk high reward buys @ 1887 -86.
gold sellhi gold have a sell for tp:1848.861
They may push gold up to the 1862 range to stress investors.
i open 0.1lot here at 1858.16.and if reverse to 1861T sell again 0.1lot to tp.(This is a moderate risk)
Those who are less risk-averse can wait and wait until the 1861 range and enter there for each 1000usd 0.1lot sell order.
Of course, there is a possibility that gold will not reach this upward range and will move towards the downward target. So you may miss the opportunity to enter.
XAUUSD - ShortA possible scenario for gold
The possibility of starting a downward trend until the minimum level of 61.8 Fibonacci
The possibility of correcting the price up to the range of 1807-1803 and then increasing the price for the new ceiling
The possibility of the formation of a new price peak and then the beginning of a downward trend and the formation of a new bottom
XAUUSD Chop zoneAtm im waiting for the daily close either below or above 1803 above under is sells over is calls if this next 4 hour comes down to 1800 i will go in with small buy and wait to see if the daily closes above but at the moment we have a daily consolidation candle
If it does decide to rip up the 1814 will be another buy zone for me but I want 1803
XAUUSD 13/12 : sell view to 1766-1745XAUUSD 13/12
Sell 1786-1790, TP 1766-1745, the best stoploss to break this setup is 1813. However, you can put SL at 1796, in the bad situation when this SL hit, you can wait to sell again
At current price of 1783, you can sell a small trade first if you do not have any sell trades opening now
High Chance For Long We can see that the price has broken the trend line, but now it seems that it was a fake movement with the appearance of a continuation pattern and it is a symmetrical triangle after a rise in the price, which means that the price will continue rising to return above this ascending trend line.
Possible areas to look for sells of goldThe 2H timeframe provided us with a clear picture of bearish order flow on gold after the change of character (CHoCH) back in mid April. Followed by multiple confirmations by bearish break of structures and mitigations on the orderblocks continuing to the downside. Possible continuation trades on highlighted blue areas, shorting gold until technicals or fundamentals start to suggest otherwise.