The Bear Awakens: A Perfectly Executed Short on Gold📍Over the past few days, I’ve consistently emphasized that the bear is on the verge of fully awakening, warmly inviting everyone to watch it dance. Today, gold has indeed pulled back to the 3000 level as anticipated, making our short position from the 3035-3045 range a resounding success!
📍Since gold has tested the 3000 level for the first time, a second test is highly likely. Therefore, the primary trading strategy remains focused on selling gold on rebounds. The head-and-shoulders formation continues to exert significant pressure, making a sustained breakout to the upside unlikely in the near term.
📍With this in mind, the resistance zone can be adjusted lower to 3025-3035. If gold fails to break through this region during its rebound, further downside movement is expected. In that case, gold will likely retest the 3000 level and could potentially breach it, extending losses towards the 2995-2985 range.
🔎Trade Idea:
Xauusd: Sell at 3025-3035
TP:3005-2995
SL:Adjust according to risk tolerance.
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Xauuusdtechnical
XAU/USD 10-14 March 2025 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis:
Swing Structure -> Bullish.
Internal Structure -> Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 09 February 2025.
Price has printed a further bullish iBOS.
Price is currently trading within an internal low and fractal high. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dashed line.
Price Action Analysis:
In my analysis dated 27 October 2024, it was noted that the first sign of a pullback would be a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), indicated by a blue dotted line. Price's consistent upward momentum had repositioned previous CHoCH much closer to recent price levels as expected for weeks. Current CHoCH positioning is quite a distance away from price, therefore, it would be viable if price continued bullish to reposition ChOCH.
Note:
It is highly unlikely price will "crash" as many analysts are predicting. My view is this is merely a corrective wave of the primary trend.
Given the Federal Reserve's dovish policy stance alongside heightened geopolitical risks, market volatility is likely to remain elevated, influencing intraday price swings.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty.
Weekly Chart:
Daily Analysis:
Swing -> Bullish.
Internal -> Bullish.
As per analysis dated 16 February 2025 price has printed a bearish CHoCH which indicates, but does not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation
Price is now trading within an established internal range. I will however continue to monitor price and depth of pullback.
Expectation is for price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or Daily demand zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 2,956.310.
Note:
With the Fed maintaining a dovish policy stance and the continued rise in geopolitical tensions, we should anticipate elevated market volatility, which may impact both intraday and longer-term price action.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty.
Daily Chart:
H4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Analysis/Bias remains the same as analysis dated 07 March 2024.
Price has printed a bullish CHoCH according to analysis and bias dated 28 February 2025.
Price is currently trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price is now trading in premium of 50% internal EQ where we could see a reaction at any point. Price could also target H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal low, priced at 2,832.720
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty.
H4 Chart:
Gold will definitely test the 2000 mark again,keep shorting goldDear friends, after touching the channel pressure near the 2036 position today, gold fell again under pressure. The current lowest has touched the 2011 position, and is currently testing the support strength of the triangle channel. In recent days, I have been reminding everyone in my articles that gold is under short-term pressure from the triangle channel resistance. In recent days, we have been repeatedly shorting gold around the 2030-2032 area in our transactions, and we have made very good profits in our transactions.
Gold is currently testing the channel support area near 2011-2009. If gold falls below this area, then gold will definitely test the 2000 integer mark again. Therefore, for the next trading rhythm, since gold has fallen below the level and the short trend is obvious, then there will be a certain continuation in the later period, so in terms of trading, we mainly focus on shorting gold after the rebound.
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