Dont Buy Silver Here; Watch Gold/Silver RatioSilver has been mostly sideways since 2021 and till 2024, when metal clearly formed a corrective price action because of choppy and overlapping moves. Ideally, that was a very big triangle that sent prices sharply higher this year as shown on weekly chart below. We have seen some nice turn up, due to inflation hedge, CB easing and geopolitical tensions. In fact, we can see some volatility in last few weeks with sharp move out of a big contracting range; its an impulsive reaction since price broke above $25, but notice that price now trades $34-37 area as expected; marked as potential resistance zone identified by swing highs from 2012, 2013, and Fibonacci levels.
The reason why we should be aware of a resistance on silver and also gold, is gold/silver ratio (XAUSD/XAGUSD ), which is pointing higher after an A-B-C corrective setback. Based on past correlations, bullish gold/silver ratio is usually bearish for metals, so if ratio start moving higher, then watch out for a limited upside on silver. From an Elliott wave perspective this push higher on XAUSD/XAGUSD chart would deffinitely not be a surprise because of bullish pattern.
If someone wants to join uptrends on gold and silver, then due to the reasons described above, it may not be a bad idea to wait on some pullback first. $30 can be an interesting levels in such case.
Xauxagratio
Silver might have bottomed outOANDA:XAGUSD has been sold heavily with yesterday's CPI numbers. Hotter CPI than expected numbers increased the probability of postponing the start of rate cuts to a later than March. With this expectation, OANDA:XAUUSD and OANDA:XAGUSD were sold with the initial reaction and then they saw some recovery.
Silver might have bottomed out. Why?
TVC:US10Y is struggling to pass 200D MA. This is good news for the metals since it indicates no more hike pressure. This will allow metals to go higher.
OANDA:XAUXAG ratio is returning from the resistance. At the current level, it favors Gold. But if it drops below 84, the price movement in Silver will accelerate.
Silver and NASDAQ:NDX have some correlation. Despite the bloods on the street yesterday, NASDAQ:NDX managed to stay positive. We may see a bull run until the first couple of rate cuts. This would bring the Silver along with it.
If this plays out, my target is around $30 for the first half of the year. Otherwise, Silver may fall into the bear trend and follow the purple channel.
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A potential reversal point for SilverOANDA:XAGUSD has been beaten as bond yields are rising and Nasdaq is falling. But it reach to a good support point. There are three signals for a potential support here.
We are at the band of the rising trend.
First monthly pivotal support
First pivotal resistance point for OANDA:XAUXAG
Let's see if this support points holds or the price falls to the next support station. If we get a reversal move from here, it should first target 25$ and then 26$. This move should be supported with a rising OANDA:XAUUSD move. If gold breaks 2075$ barrier, we can see 28$ for the silver as well.
XAUXAG - Gold/Silver Ratio! XAUXAG - Gold/Silver Ratio!
Question I get asked: Why do you look at the XAU/XAG?
Simple answer: Measuring the strength. Which metal has a greater R/R potential and that's been silver. Now personally I am much more bullish Silver since last yr march, given analysing the market of both gold and silver, which I stated this in my year ahead video outlook for 2021. (Message privately if you'd like access)
I favour Silver for buying opportunities due to adding confluence analysis the XAU/XAG ratio
I do this with currencies (E.g EURGBP), cryptocurrencies (E.g ETCBTC) and many other assets.
Key Tip: The trend is your friend, until it's broken.
Have a great day ahead.
Trade Journal
(For educational purposes, not investment advice)
XAUXAG - Symmetric triangleXAUXAG is consolidating in a symmetric triangle around the 2016-2017 correction zone. The symmetric triangle is a continuation pattern.
When it breaks we are
When it breaks we are going to test 56,8 and later 50,3.
The measured target of the symmetric triangle is around 42.
If gold rallies to 2300-2400$ and the XAUXAG drops to 42 at the same time silver will rally above 50$.
XAUXAG ratio to go to 20, could possibly go lowerXAUXAG ratio to go to 20, could possibly go lower, that's a strong case for silver. Not betting so much on the pullback, but the dollar strength could initially mean a dip in both Gold and Silver, but when the bounce back silver will gain at a much faster rate than gold.
Not a bad idea to jump in now if you are not using leverage.
What do you think? Drop a comment below and share your own charts.
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XAUXAG long - Safe houseThis is going to be an interesting idea.
The XAUXAG ratio dropped to a multi year support at 81.
Actually this is a 6 year - multiyear - support line. It's way too stretched below every moving average, printed a bollinger band crash signal.
I'm waiting for at least of the tag of the 10 MA and maybe we backtest the cross of the 100 MA and the 50 MA.
WHat does it mean exactly ? How can you trade it ?
Most brokers doesn't offer the trade of the XAUXAG ratio.
SO for trading this idea you will nee to open a XAUUSD long and a XAGUSD short position at the same time with the same margin impact.
I have traded this kind of idea earlier with platinum successfully.
Gold-Silver-Ratio - Silver undervaluedI find the current overvaluation of gold compared to silver very exciting. As you can see on the chart, the XAUXAG's ratio style rebounded at the upper falling resistance level in April (82.58 to 1) and is now heading back to the bottom for the next few years before ending in an overvaluation phase of silver.
A first goal is the ratio of gold to silver from 50 to 1 as indicated by the arrows in the chart and is the 61,8% correction of 2011 low and 2016 high.
Important:
This does not mean that silver-has to go through the roof, for example, it would be enough if gold-falls and the price of silver-remains constant.
Therefore, for all precious metal fans, a switch from gold to silver is currently interesting, because-currently I can still exchange 77 to 1, later perhaps only 50 gold shares to 1 silver share or even worse. The chance risk ratio is at interesting 4.5 to 1 when the stop loss is set to the last April high.
On the other hand, then silver-producers would be interesting. For example, ImpactSilver (88% SilverProduction) or Golden Arrow Resources (72%) or First Majestic Silver (63%) or Endeavor-Silver (60%) or Silvercorp Metals (57%) or SilverCrest (52%) or Fortuna-Silver-Mines (51%). These would accordingly be the "natural" leverage instruments with rising silver prices. Let's see if I will do separate analyzes on these values.
Greetings from Hannover
Stefan Bode
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Money for nothin' and your chicks for freeLooks as though the Gold to Silver Ratio has peaked just over 100 and the popular pairs trade of Long Gold and Short Silver has run its course..
Back Up We Go... See Chart for Details and Target Price. Should Bernie Sanders upset Biden tonight, it would justify a more explosive move to the upside.
AMEX:JNUG AMEX:GDXJ AMEX:NUGT AMEX:GDX TVC:SILVER CURRENCYCOM:SILVER FX_IDC:XAGUSD AMEX:SLV NASDAQ:PAAS NYSE:AG
Gold to outperform silverMonthly chart with a huge breakout and retest of the 83 level. Target is about 130 on the gold/silver ratio if this is correct and we don't return under 83 anytime soon.
This means that Gold will outperform silver long term - but keep in mind there are two possible scenarios to this
1. Both rise but Gold rises much more than silver
2. Both fall but Silver falls much more than gold
good luck!
SILVER EXPLOSION !! I've had an affinity to silver for many years.
For last batch of years, I've been watching and waiting for any real sustained interest in it wanting to stay above $17.12 on the SLV chart...
This last thrust is convincing. I marked a zone of $17.12 - $17.80 for great time to load up for what could be the biggest SILVER EXPLOSION in our lifetime.
Many factors here, but I'll point out the double bottom on monthly chart, with MACD divergence.
We saw volume really pick up in 2019.
Also, the RSI is at resistance, which once broken can see swift massive gains.
As you can see from the indicators during the last bubble, the bulk of the silver move happened when they were overbought.
Lastly, trading altcoins has been and will be a nice prep to navigate this SILVER EXPLOSION.
Ill add a few more supporting charts soon, like the rising wedge in the gold/silver ratio, and the bullish possibility in gold too.
Much like bitcoin, don't lose your position in the shakeouts along the way, just to buy back in FOMO areas.
UIOGD - JMJ
Travis
SILVER EXPLOSTION !! Gold / Silver ratioSupporting the SILVER EXPLOSION idea... here is the rising wedge on the Gold / Silver ratio chart.
Below is an example of a rising wedge from the BCH/USD chart that recently played out to give you an idea of how these can move.
Looking at the SILVER EXPLOSION chart, and using this as supporting evidence, only adds to the probability of much gains.
GOLD : Technical OverviewGold prices continue to remain in the rising trend, although the upward region has slackened occasionally, the bear market has not been switched.
When we look at the gold / silver ratio, we see that silver is preferred more.
Relativity technical indicators can be observed here.
A new idea for gold will be shared in a different analysis when the time comes.
I will look silver (XAGUSD) , perhaps more preferred silver, may put silver into more serious trends.
MEDIUM TERM(XAUXAG): WAVE COUNT|BULLISH TARGETS+STRUCTURAL [TA]Commodity and Fixed Income Series : Part 1 Commodities ( Ratios+the most popular and widely traded Commodities )
The Essential note s from this chart are the following( Indicator analysis included in the comments ): {4.5 minute read}
To begin with the easiest part of the chart. The supports were identified on the quarterly chart which will be linked in the comments. There are 3 main support levels :1. ~80(RED LINE) 2. ~70-66(BLUE LINE) 3. ~58-60(GREEN LINE)
Somewhat more difficult part of the chart are the bullish targets . There are 2 main targets and 1 psychologica l. The 2 main targets were derived based on fibonacci extensions from the quarterly chart #1 ~94, #2 ~110 ; and the obvious psychological target is circa: 100 .
Q: What is the method used to label the Wave count?
-Following the ABC correction(2008-2011), gold has clearly outperformed silver. This is partially because of the new production methods that were introduced after 2012( more cost-effective extraction of silver as a byproduct while mining for other metals). In effect, this boosted the supply of silver relatively to gold; positively affecting the gold-to-silver ratio . Hence, the W-X-Y-X-Z Wave count fits the best into the current chart structure.
Q: Bullish on silver? - Not yet . As it can be observed from the chart, prior to the ABC correction(2008-2011) ; there was a boom in the demand for gold as the primary metal of value used as a protection against inflation . This pattern should occur during the next recession, yielding a potential target for the ratio of around ~110.
Other worthy notes: 2020 Election will have an impact on practically every market; Commodities are no exception . Nevertheless, in the medium term , I am relatively more bullish on silver in comparison to gold . This is supported by continuously downtrending volume as we progress through the bullish channel(pitchfork) . The ABC orange labelled correction is obviously a far fetched idea, since we do not know the timing nor the absolute top for the ratio yet. It's included just for the sake of general market principles.
P.S. I do realize the chart is quite hard to be understood, mostly because it is labelled to the smallest and extreme detail. If there are any poor understandings of the labels, I'd be able to answer any additional questions in the comment s.
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Step_Ahead_oftheMarket- {Make sure to check out my previous series on US(SPX) Sector including 11 episodes of the major US sectors}
This chart is a continuation to one of my most popular charts from last week:
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