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Trade tensions escalate, GOLD receives support to break $3,200As trade tensions escalated, market risk sentiment suddenly spiked, with spot OANDA:XAUUSD surging above $3,200. Data released on Thursday in the United States showed that the consumer price index (CPI) unexpectedly fell in March. Data showed that the US CPI fell 0.1% month-on-month in March, the first decline in nearly five years, compared to expectations of 0.1% and the previous reading of 0.2%. In addition, the US CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year in March, lower than the expected 2.5% and the previous reading of 2.8%; the US core CPI rose 2.8% year-on-year in March, lower than the expected 3% and the previous reading of 3.1%. After the US CPI data was released, traders bet that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again in June, potentially totaling 100 basis points of rate cuts by the end of the year. Low interest rates are generally beneficial for gold because the metal does not pay interest. Gold prices continued to rise above $3,200 an ounce in early trading in Asia on Friday, breaking the record set in the previous trading day. Gold prices hit a new high as investors turned to safe-haven assets amid concerns about the impact of tariffs on the global economy, Bloomberg reported on Friday. Gold’s safe-haven status has been hit again this week, Bloomberg reported. US President Trump’s erratic rhetoric on his tariff agenda has sparked a sell-off in stocks, bonds and the US dollar, as concerns about a global recession spread across Wall Street. Even after Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs on dozens of trading partners, risks and uncertainties remain, with tariffs on all imports from China now at a rate of at least 145%. The White House clarified to CNBC at noon ET on Thursday that the Trump administration's tariffs on China under the name of reciprocal tariffs are 125%, but this does not include the 20% tariffs that the United States imposed on China twice in early February and early March of this year due to the fentanyl crisis. Therefore, during Trump's second term, the cumulative tariffs that the United States has applied to all Chinese goods exported to the United States have reached 145%. The CNBC report also emphasized that the 145% tariff does not include the US tariffs on China before Trump's second term as US president, including various tariffs imposed on China during Trump's first term and the Biden administration. Given the current market environment, gold is still going to continue to rise strongly. As a wise man at a coffee shop in Vietnam (TLTV) predicted, this war must be 500% to negotiate. If so, we could soon see gold approaching the $3,500 mark. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has surged above the $3,200 base, and at its current position, it is likely to continue its upward move with the nearest target being the 0.786% Fibonacci extension level of $3,223. Whereas, once the $3,223 level is broken, gold will be in a position to continue its upward move with the next target around $3,295 in the short term. On the technical front, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sloping upwards without any weakness as it approaches the overbought zone, indicating strong demand in the market and sending a positive signal for the bullish trend. For the day, as long as gold remains above $3,167, it remains bullish in the short term, and any dip in the current scenario that does not take gold below the EMA21 should be viewed as a short-term correction rather than a trend, or as a buying opportunity. The notable positions for the intraday uptrend will be listed again for readers as follows. Support: $3,167 Resistance: $3,223 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3250 - 3248⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3068 →Take Profit 1 3056 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3050 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3134 - 3136⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3130 →Take Profit 1 3142 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3148
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD surges to weekly targets, eyes era levelsSpot gold prices have surged on the back of US President Trump’s tariff announcement. Gold prices rose as much as 3.9% on Wednesday as markets were volatile, before closing up 3.4%. At the time of writing today, Thursday (April 10), gold is up as much as $44, or 1.4%, on the day. Gold prices posted their biggest one-day gain in 18 months on Wednesday as confusion over US President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda prompted investors to buy the precious metal as a safe-haven asset, Bloomberg reported. But after China announced plans to retaliate with 84% tariffs on US products starting Thursday, Trump immediately raised tariffs on China to 125%. The moves raised concerns that the world's two largest economies were heading toward a full-blown trade war. Stock markets rallied after Trump announced the tariff suspension. US stocks had their best day since the financial crisis, with the S&P 500 index rising nearly 10% after falling to the brink of a bear market last week. Bloomberg said the US government's erratic tax plans have shaken the world as investors look for direction and certainty. That has supported gold prices overall, with prices up 18% this year. Expectations of further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve and central bank gold purchases have also boosted prices. Gold has gained more than $400 this year, hitting an all-time record of $3,167.57 an ounce on April 3. Minutes from the Federal Reserve's March meeting showed policymakers almost unanimously warned last month that the U.S. economy faces the risk of rising inflation while economic growth slows. Some policymakers noted that there could be "difficult trade-offs" ahead. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders see a 72% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in June. Gold itself does not generate interest rates, and will perform well in a low-interest-rate environment. Investors are now looking to the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) due out today (Thursday) for further trading information. Technical outlook analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold surged to hit all the weekly upside targets noted and readers in the weekly publication at $3,056 in the short term and then the full price point of $3,100. Looking ahead, gold only has a $3,150 size creature to break to set a new all-time high or more. The relative strength index (RSI) is building, signaling bullish energy in the near term, as long as gold remains in the price channel, the declines should only be limited corrections and not a trend. As we have noted to our readers throughout our articles since Trump returned to the White House, dips can be viewed as buying opportunities. And for the day, the notable positions for the bullish picture on the technical chart of gold will be listed again as follows. Support: 3,103 – 3,100 – 3,056 USD Resistance: 3,150 – 3,167 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3192 - 3190⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3196 →Take Profit 1 3184 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3178 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3050 - 3052⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3046 →Take Profit 1 3058 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3064
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
Fundamental support remains stable, GOLD is losing some elementsIn the Asian trading session on Tuesday (April 8), spot OANDA:XAUUSD recovered in the short term after a sharp decline in the previous trading day. Gold prices just touched $3,000/ounce, having increased by nearly $20 during the day. Concerns about the escalation of the trade war have increased the risk-off sentiment in the market. US President Donald Trump said on Monday that he will not suspend the policy of "reciprocal tariffs", although many trading partners want to avoid them According to a statement posted on the website of the Chinese Ministry of Commerce on Tuesday, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce made a statement on the US threat to increase tariffs on China. The statement pointed out that China noted that on April 7 Eastern time, the US threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on China, and China firmly opposes this. If the US escalates the tariff measures, China will resolutely take countermeasures to protect its own rights and interests. The US threat to increase tariffs on China is a mistake that has been compounded, once again exposing the US's blackmailing nature. China will never accept this. If the US insists on pursuing its own way, China will fight to the end. Such statements usually boost the market's risk-off sentiment, contributing to a short-term recovery in gold prices. Gold is a safe investment during times of political and financial uncertainty. Last Thursday, gold hit an all-time high of $3,167.57/oz, driven largely by geopolitical uncertainty and strong central bank buying. And the gold market remains exposed to significant volatility in the short term, with a number of potential fundamental surprises, most of which are likely to support price gains. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is struggling to maintain its price action within the main price channel, however, the recovery momentum is also limited by the $3,000 price level which is currently acting as the nearest resistance. For now, gold is losing important support at the EMA21 and now the EMA21 has become a resistance level. For gold to have the conditions for a bullish possibility, gold needs to bring the price action back above the $3,000 level, then the target is $3,019 and maintain above this level. The relative strength index RSI has some minor reaction at 50, which is considered a momentum support level on the RSI tool. But the signal is not significant. Overall, the expectation for gold is to resume the uptrend but at the time of writing, the conditions are not yet sufficient. Meanwhile, a drop below $2,956 would bring the risk of further declines with the next target around $2,927 in the short term. In the day, the notable technical positions will be listed as follows. Support: $2,956 – $2,954 – $2,927 Resistance: $3,019 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3064 - 3062⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3068 →Take Profit 1 3056 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3050 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2932 - 2934⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2928 →Take Profit 1 2930 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2936
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
GOLD dropped dramatically then recovered in the short termOANDA:XAUUSD saw a short-term spike during the Asian trading session on Monday (April 7). The price of gold recovered to reach around $3,053/ounce, up $83 from the intraday low of $2,970.47/ounce reached earlier. OANDA:XAUUSD fell sharply after the Asian open on Monday, with gold also falling sharply as equity markets suffered a sharp sell-off. While gold typically benefits from periods of volatility, it is more prone to sell-offs during periods of high volatility, with investors likely to sell gold to cover losses elsewhere. The stock market sell-off has prompted investors to cover their losses. However, rising trade wars and geopolitical risks could boost safe-haven demand, supporting gold prices. Trump Makes Shocking Claim About Stock Market Crash: "Sometimes You Have to Take Medicine" When asked about the stock market crash, US President Trump said on Sunday local time, "Sometimes you have to take medicine." After plunging on Thursday and Friday last week, global stock markets continued to fall on Monday, creating the worst three-day losing streak in history. “I don’t want anything to happen, but sometimes you have to take medicine to solve the problem,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One, speaking about the economic impact of his sweeping tariffs. “I can’t tell you what’s going to happen in the markets,” Trump said. “But our country is stronger.” According to Reuters, Trump gave no indication that he would abandon the tariff plan during his speech. Trump also said he did not intentionally orchestrate the market sell-off. “No, it wasn’t that,” he said. Last Friday, Trump reposted a video on his social media platform in response to the stock market crash. The video opens with the assertion: “Trump is causing the stock market crash… but he’s doing it on purpose.” Trump’s “No, he’s not” comment came hours after his economic advisers said in a Sunday television interview that the market should not expect to be rescued from the tariff-driven sell-off. The Stock Market as well as the Gold Market are now directly piloted by Captain Trump, so keeping an eye on Trump is essential for any trader. One comment can also break all the technical structures, and we cannot trade the market without knowing what is happening in the market. The market is 50%, the rest is now Trump and a part of the FED along with trade and geopolitical developments. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after the gold price fell, it received support from the lower edge of the price channel, an important position of the current main uptrend. And the recovery brought the gold price back above the EMA21 level, however, the upside momentum is also limited by the technical level of 3,056USD, pay attention to readers in the weekly publication. In terms of momentum, the Relative Strength Index RSI approached the level of 50, which is considered a support position for the RSI and the RSI bending upwards will be considered a positive signal for the bullish recovery momentum. During the day, the technical uptrend of the gold price is still dominant with the price channel as the main trend and the notable positions will be listed as follows. Support: 3,019 - 3,000 - around the lower edge of the channel Resistance: 3,056USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3093 - 3091⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3097 →Take Profit 1 3085 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3079 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3001 - 3003⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2997 →Take Profit 1 3009 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3015
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [April 07 - April 11]This week, the price of OANDA:XAUUSD increased sharply from 3,076 USD/oz to 3,168 USD/oz, then made a "reverse" move to 3,015 USD/oz and closed this week at 3,038 USD/oz. The reason why the price of gold increased sharply to 3,168 USD/oz in the trading session on April 3 was because US President Donald Trump decided to impose reciprocal taxes from 10% to 49% on many trading partners. However, it was also because of the tariff issue that caused the gold price to break the upward trend right after the Trump administration announced a list of tariff exemptions for many goods. Meanwhile, many countries have also proactively negotiated with the US to reduce import taxes on US goods, import more goods from the US to contribute to gradually balancing the trade balance with the US so that the Trump administration can remove tariffs. In addition, the US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data for March unexpectedly jumped to 228,000 jobs, much higher than the forecast of 137,000 jobs. This shows that the US labor market is still positive, causing investors to believe that the FED may continue to delay cutting interest rates. In addition, FED Chairman Powell also said that the Trump administration's recent reciprocal tariff policy will cause inflation to increase for a long time, risking pushing the US economy into recession. This implies that the FED will not cut interest rates in the upcoming meetings. In particular, the stock market has fallen too sharply, causing investors to close profitable gold investment positions to add margin (cover losses) for stocks. According to many experts, gold prices may continue to adjust next week, but will not fall too deeply. Because the Russia-Ukraine war and armed conflicts in the Middle East are still complicated. Moreover, China has just imposed an additional 34% tax on all US goods. Without hesitation, Canada also imposed a 25% import tax on all cars imported from the US that are not eligible for preferential treatment in the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). If more countries retaliate against the US like China and Canada, the trade war will become increasingly heated, pushing the world economy into instability, increasing the role of gold as a safe haven. 🕹SOME DATA THAT MAY AFFECT GOLD PRICES NEXT WEEK: Inflation and the Fed will be back in the spotlight next week, with the release of the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) March monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. This will be followed by the US consumer price index (CPI) report for March on Thursday, and the producer price index (PPI) on Friday. Friday morning will also see the latest preliminary survey of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan – a key indicator of how Americans feel about the outlook for the economy. 📌Technically, observing the H4 chart, it is necessary to pay attention to the important support level at 3,000 USD/oz. If next week the gold price trades above this level, it can re-enter the correction phase to 3085. In case the 3000 round resistance level is broken, the gold price will continue to be under selling pressure, causing the price to drop to around 2,900-2,950 USD/oz. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 3,019 – 3,000 USD Resistance: 3,050 – 3,056 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3093 - 3091⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3097 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2988 - 2990⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2984
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD corrects after hot rally, conditions remain optimisticOANDA:XAUUSD has retreated from an all-time high of $3,167.67/oz as investors began to take profits after a “parabolic” rally. While the rally was initially fueled by safe-haven demand stemming from US President Donald Trump’s plans for higher tariffs, questions are starting to arise about the sustainability of the rally as buying pressure wanes and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) moves into overbought territory. Gold has rallied 19% so far in 2025 and this correction could be temporary Gold prices have rallied 19% this year, supported by multiple macro uncertainties, historic central bank buying and continued inflows into ETFs. Despite the current pullback, from a fundamental perspective, this does not impact the overall bullish fundamental trend and the likelihood of near-term technical consolidation has begun to increase. Trump’s tariffs a “catalyst” supporting the physical gold market? Trump's proposal to impose 10% tariffs on most imports has stoked market concerns about slowing economic growth and rising business costs, while risk aversion has pushed gold prices higher. However, the White House later clarified that "critical raw materials" including gold, copper and energy would be exempt, alleviating some concerns about supply chain disruptions and providing some support to the physical gold market. Market sentiment remains bullish, with strong buying momentum on dips Although the technical side is currently under some pressure, the market's optimism remains unshaken. It is difficult to try to assess the peak near the historical high, but it is clear that every pullback is quickly absorbed by buyers, which shows that the underlying bullish sentiment in the market is still strong. Described by the sharp drop on Thursday, gold recovered very quickly after the drop. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold may enter a correction phase after a long period of hot growth, depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) falling below the overbought level, breaking the blue bullish channel. In the short term, if gold breaks below the short-term channel, converging with the 0.50% Fibonacci extension level, it will be in a position to correct further with the next target level around $3,066 in the short term, more than $3,040. However, overall, gold still has a bullish technical outlook with the price channel as the long-term trend and the main support from the EMA21. As long as gold remains within the price channel and above the EMA21, the declines should be considered as corrections and not a trend. On the other hand, once gold recovers from the 0.50% Fibonacci extension and holds above the raw price point of $3,100, it will signal the end of the correction cycle, then the upside target will be the 0.786% Fibonacci extension in the short-term. During the day, the long-term uptrend with the possibility of a short-term correction will be noticed again by the following positions. Support: 3,086 – 3,066 – 3,040USD Resistance: 3,100 – 3,106 – 3,135USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3147 - 3145⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3151 →Take Profit 1 3139 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3133 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3061 - 3063⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3057 →Take Profit 1 3069 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3075
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
2
Trump's Tariff War! GOLD nears targetIn Asian trading on Thursday (April 3), the market's risk-off sentiment increased, boosted by Trump's wide-ranging tariff actions. Spot gold prices jumped to $3,167.77/ounce in early trading, up nearly $37 in a day and hitting a new record high. OANDA:XAUUSD Continues to Rise as Trump Launches Tariff Campaign The US Dollar fell sharply in Asian trading on Thursday, contributing to the boost in gold prices. The US Dollar Index is currently at around 103.050, down more than 60 points on the day. On April 2, local time, the White House issued a statement saying that US President Trump declared a national emergency on the same day to enhance US competitiveness, protect US sovereignty, and strengthen US national and economic security. Trump declared this as America's "declaration of economic independence". The statement said that Trump will impose a 10% "base tariff" on all countries, effective from 0:01 a.m. Eastern time on April 5. In addition, Trump will impose higher, personalized "reciprocal tariffs" on countries with the largest US trade deficits, effective from 0:01 a.m. Eastern time on April 9. All other countries will continue to adhere to the original base tariff of 10%. Gold prices hit a new record above $3,160 an ounce after US President Donald Trump announced comprehensive “reciprocal” tariffs, imposing a minimum 10% tax on imported goods, raising concerns that this could trigger a global economic recession. Investors have flocked to gold as concerns about the health of the global economy have grown. Gold prices have risen 20% this year after a strong rally in 2024, driven largely by central bank buying and strong demand in Asia. AND IT WILL KEEP RISE AS FUNDAMENTAL SUPPORT IS ABSOLUTELY IN PLACE! Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after approaching the target level of attention to readers in yesterday's publication at the price point of the 1% Fibonacci extension, there are temporary signs of cooling down, mainly this is considered a correction state after a shock increase. In terms of trends, gold is currently being noticed by the short-term price channel, this is an uptrend in which the medium-term trend at the price channel is also an uptrend channel, in addition, EMA21 is also the current main support. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also in an uptrend channel, which shows that gold is also in an uptrend in terms of momentum, and a signal for a possible downward correction in terms of momentum can only occur when the RSI folds downwards below 80. As long as gold remains in the price channel, it is still in an uptrend in the short term, and the notable positions for the day will be listed as follows. Support: 3,135 – 3,106 – 3,100 USD Resistance: 3,172 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3171 - 3169⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3175 →Take Profit 1 3163 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3157 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3098 - 3100⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3094 →Take Profit 1 3106 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3112
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
Middle East heats up, GOLD rises more than 20 USDIn the Asian trading session, the spot price of OANDA:XAUUSD suddenly jumped by more than 20 USD in the short term and the gold price just touched 3,135 USD/ounce. The situation in the Middle East suddenly became tense and the US Department of Defense sent more aircraft carriers and bombers to the Middle East, increasing risk aversion, which boosted the demand for safe havens. The latest news from Bloomberg News in the US said that in the context of the US declaring to continue the fight against the Iran-backed Houthi rebels and escalating tensions with Iran over Iran's nuclear program, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth ordered the dispatch of more troops to the Middle East, including the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier strike group and many fighter jets. The Carl Vinson will arrive in the region after completing the Indo-Pacific exercise. Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said in a statement Tuesday that the Defense Department will also extend the deployment of the USS Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group in the region. The rare deployment of two aircraft carriers echoes a show of force last year under the Biden administration. "Secretary Hegseth made clear once again that if Iran or its proxies threaten U.S. personnel and interests in the region, the United States will take decisive action to protect our people," Parnell said. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Monday that any attack by the United States or Israel would be met with "decisive retaliation." US President Donald Trump has previously threatened to bomb Iran if it does not sign a deal to give up its nuclear weapons. Last week, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said there would be no direct talks with the United States as long as the Trump administration continued its "military threats." "If there is no deal, the bombing will come," Trump warned in an interview last weekend. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold tested the 0.786% Fibonacci extension level and declined slightly after receiving support from the 0.618% Fibonacci extension level. As we have communicated to our readers in previous publications, given the current fundamental context and technical chart conditions, further price declines are possible, but should only be considered as short-term corrections and not a trend. Or we can consider the downward corrections as another buying opportunity. As long as gold remains within the price channel, there is still a long-term main uptrend, with the main support from the EMA21 and the short-term trend is highlighted by the price channel. For now, gold is capped by the $3,135 level, once this level is broken above gold, there will be conditions to continue to refresh the all-time high set on yesterday's trading day with the next target being the $3,172 price point of the 1% Fibonacci extension. During the day, the bullish outlook of gold will be highlighted by the following technical levels. Support: $3,108 – $3,100 – $3,086 Resistance: $3,135 – $3,149 – $3,172 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3171 - 3169⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3175 →Take Profit 1 3163 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3157 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3085 - 3087⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3081 →Take Profit 1 3093 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3099
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
4 consecutive days of increase, GOLD support from TrumpIn the Asian session, spot OANDA:XAUUSD continued to rise, surpassing $3,145/ounce, up more than $24 on the day. The global trade war has caused concerns in the market, continuing to push gold prices to new highs. Gold prices rose 8% in March and have increased for three consecutive months this year. Gold prices have increased more than 18% this year, following a 27% increase last year, thanks to a favorable monetary policy environment, strong central bank buying and demand for exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Trump: Tariff details could be announced soon (Bloomberg) US President Trump said on Monday local time that details of the tariffs could be announced either Tuesday night (April 1) or April 2. Trump also said the US would be “very friendly” to other countries and that tariffs could be significantly reduced in some cases. Trump then talked about other issues before returning to the issue of tariffs, adding: “The tariff plan is already in place.” White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said on Monday that US President Trump will announce a plan for reciprocal tariffs "country by country" in the White House Rose Garden on April 2 and that no tariff exemptions are currently being considered. In the latest escalation in the trade war, Trump is set to impose broad “reciprocal” tariffs on all U.S. trading partners on Wednesday, a day he has called “Liberation Day.” Trump also plans to impose a 25 percent tariff on all non-U.S.-made cars this week. Asked about the reciprocal tariffs and which countries would be affected, Leavitt declined to provide details. Asked whether lower tariffs would be applied to products used by U.S. farmers, Leavitt said “there are no exemptions at this time.” Trump also said on Sunday that he would impose secondary tariffs of 25% to 50% on buyers of Russian oil if he finds Russia intends to obstruct US efforts to end the war in Ukraine. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD 4 days of soaring, gold is heading for its 4th consecutive strong day of gains as it breaks the target at the 0.618% Fibonacci extension of $3,139, followed by the target at the 0.786% Fibonacci extension of $3,177. With the current technical conditions, there is no resistance or signal for a significant technical correction. With the medium-term trend being highlighted by the price channel and a blue price channel as the short-term trend. As long as gold remains above the EMA21, it will remain technically bullish in the long-term. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is operating in the overbought zone but is not giving any signal of a possible downside correction. For the day, the technical outlook for gold prices remains bullish, and any current downside correction should only be considered as a short-term correction or a buying opportunity. With that, the notable positions for the uptrend will be listed as follows. Support: 3,128 – 3,113 USD Resistance: 3,177 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3157 - 3155⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3161 →Take Profit 1 3149 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3143 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3085 - 3087⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3081 →Take Profit 1 3093 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3099
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD surges above $3,100 as April 2 approachesThe international OANDA:XAUUSD has jumped above 3,100 USD for the first time in this trading day, as concerns about US President Donald Trump's tariff policy and its possible economic consequences, along with geopolitical uncertainties, have prompted a new round of safe-haven investment. As of press time, spot OANDA:XAUUSD was up 0.86% at $3,111/oz, having earlier hit an all-time high of $3,111.55, surpassing the all-time high set last Friday. Trump signed a proclamation last week imposing a 25% tariff on imported cars, and markets are bracing for so-called “reciprocal tariffs” that the White House is expected to announce on Wednesday. Gold has hit a record high and is up more than 18% this year, cementing its status as a hedge against economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Earlier this month, gold prices broke through the psychological $3,000 mark for the first time, a milestone that reflects growing market concerns about economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and inflation that will continue to drive gold higher. Since taking office, Trump has pushed through a series of new tariffs to protect U.S. industry and reduce the trade deficit, including a 25% tariff on imported cars and parts and an additional 10% tariff on all imports from China. He plans to announce a new round of reciprocal tariffs on April 2. In addition to trade tensions, strong central bank demand for gold and inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will continue to support the incredible rally in gold prices this year. In short, until there is a resolution to this back-and-forth tariff war, the tariff issue will continue to push prices higher in the near term. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has achieved a key bullish target at the confluence of the 0.50% Fibonacci extension with the upper edge of the price channel. Once gold breaks this level (3,113 USD), it will be eligible for further upside with the next target around 3,139 USD in the short term, which is the price point of the 0.618% Fibonacci extension. In the meantime, the steep RSI remains active in the 80-100 area but shows no signs of weakening or correction, so in terms of momentum, the bullish momentum remains very strong. As long as gold remains within the channel, it has a medium-term bullish outlook, otherwise the channel will become a short-term bullish trend channel. During the day, the bullish outlook for gold will be highlighted by the following technical levels. Support: 3,086 – 3,057 – 3,113 USD Resistance: 3,139 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3140 - 3138⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3144 →Take Profit 1 3132 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3126 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3085 - 3087⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3081 →Take Profit 1 3093 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3099
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [March 31 - April 04]This week, the international OANDA:XAUUSD increased sharply from 3,003 USD/oz to 3,087 USD/oz and closed this week at 3,085 USD/oz. The reason for the sharp increase in gold prices is that US President Donald Trump decided to impose a 25% tax on imported cars into the US. This seems to go against Mr. Trump's previous statement about "easing" tariffs, causing investors to worry that US partner countries will retaliate, making the global trade war more intense. Some countries, such as the UK and Japan, have taken some steps to appease and actively negotiate to avoid US tariffs, while many other countries have announced their readiness to retaliate against US tariffs. Therefore, many experts believe that the tariff policy announced by Mr. Trump on April 2 will be very unpredictable. If Mr. Trump still decides to impose tariffs on many countries, the gold price next week may continue to increase sharply, far exceeding 3,100 USD/oz. However, if Mr. Trump narrows the scale of tariffs as announced and does not impose additional industry-specific tariffs on lumber, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, the gold price next week is at risk of facing strong profit-taking pressure, especially when the gold price is already deep in the overbought zone. In addition to the Trump administration's tax policy, investors also need to pay close attention to the US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report to be released next weekend, because this index will directly impact the Fed's interest rate policy. 🕹SOME DATA THAT MAY AFFECT GOLD PRICES NEXT WEEK: The most notable economic news in the coming week will be the US implementation of global trade tariffs on Wednesday, along with the March non-farm payrolls report due Friday morning. Experts warn that both events could increase the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset. In addition, a number of other important US economic data will be released, including the ISM manufacturing PMI and JOLTS job vacancies on Tuesday, the ADP employment report on Wednesday, along with the ISM services PMI and weekly jobless claims on Thursday. 📌Technically, short-term perspective on the H1 chart, gold price next week may continue to surpass the 3100 round resistance level, approaching the Fibonacci 261.8 level around the price of 3,123 USD/oz. The current support level is established around the 3057 level, if next week gold price trades below this level, gold price is at risk of falling to around the 3,000 USD/oz round resistance level. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 3,057 – 3,051USD Resistance: 3,100 – 3,113USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3133 - 3131⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3137 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2999 - 3001⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2995
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
Unstoppable, GOLD could rise in Big Data WeekOANDA:XAUUSD markets maintained solid gains in the initial reaction to higher-than-expected inflation data, with OANDA:XAUUSD surging to a record high as investors flocked to the safe-haven asset amid concerns that US President Donald Trump’s latest tariffs will spark a global trade war. It is now up more than 17% for the quarter, which would be its best quarterly performance since 1986. PCE data slightly exceeds expectations, but has limited impact on rate cut expectations Data showed that the US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.4% month-on-month in February, above market expectations of 0.3% and in line with January. While inflation data was somewhat upbeat, it was not enough to significantly change market expectations for a Fed rate cut. The Fed has yet to adjust its policy rate this year, having previously cut rates three times through 2024. Markets now expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by a total of 63 basis points starting in July this year, and could start cutting rates by 50 basis points by mid-year. Gold is traditionally a safe-haven asset that performs well in an environment of political and economic risk and low interest rate expectations. Trump is about to announce "reciprocal tariffs", and the market is very wary of inflation and growth risks The market is closely watching the Trump administration's plan to announce "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2. Trump's policies have the effect of promoting inflation, not only increasing the risk of economic recession, but also may exacerbate global trade tensions. This is beneficial for gold prices! Looking ahead to next week, in addition to the technical upside and current support for gold, gold prices remain well supported as US economic data continues to highlight slowing growth. Next week’s jobs data is expected to be a significant mover. Any weakness in the labor market could weigh on equities and boost safe-haven demand for gold. Therefore, as usual, the employment data will be the focus of the economic calendar next week, and more detailed analysis will be sent to readers in the next editions. In particular, along with the economic data, traders also need to monitor how the world reacts to the implementation of US trade tariffs, which are expected to take effect on April 2. This will deeply affect the US Dollar and the price of gold, any risk of escalating tariff conflicts will cause gold prices to increase immediately. Economic Data to Watch Next Week Tuesday: US ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Jobs Open Wednesday: US Global Tariffs, ADP Nonfarm Payrolls Thursday: US Weekly Jobless Claims, ISM Services PMI Friday: US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD breaks and refreshes All-Time High, on PCE Data dayOn Friday (March 28) in the Asian trading session, the spot OANDA:XAUUSD unexpectedly accelerated and the gold price surpassed the level of 3,077 USD / ounce, up more than 20 USD on the day. The threat of additional tariffs by US President Trump has affected the USD. Gold still maintains a positive growth momentum and is expected to reach a new record high. The spot OANDA:XAUUSD closed up 37.50 USD on Thursday as new auto tariffs announced by President Donald Trump have increased trade tensions around the world and sent stock markets plunging, sending investors fleeing for safe-haven assets. Gold traders will focus on U.S. PCE inflation data on Friday to gauge the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting path. Markets will now focus on upcoming U.S. economic data. On Friday, the U.S. will release data on the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index for February, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. The U.S. core PCE price index is expected to have risen 2.7% year-on-year in February, up slightly from 2.6% in January. “A mild PCE inflation reading could reinforce the Fed’s dovish stance and maintain support for gold” Gold is traditionally seen as a safe haven from economic and political uncertainty and tends to perform well in low-interest-rate environments. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Continuing to rise, gold reached all the target levels sent to readers in the weekly publication and also broke these levels. With the current position, gold is expected to continue to rise with the next target at the 0.382% Fibonacci extension level. The RSI is upright moving back to the 80 area, showing surprisingly strong buying momentum without any signs of weakening in the oversold area. In the short term, the confluence of the upper edge of the price channel with the 0.50% Fibonacci extension will be the most important position to watch, as it acts as an expected resistance for a slight correction when the RSI enters the overbought zone. However, once gold continues to break $3,113, there will be nothing to stop gold from continuing to increase rapidly. Overall, the overall bullish outlook for gold prices during the day will be focused on the following technical levels. Support: $3,057 – $3,051 Resistance: $3,086 – $3,100 – $3,113 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3101 - 3099⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3105 →Take Profit 1 3093 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3087 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3004 - 3006⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3000 →Take Profit 1 3012 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3018
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD holds above $3,000, aiming for weekly targetOANDA:XAUUSD continues to recover and maintain an upward trend, as uncertainty over the Trump administration's tariff policy has boosted safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, the market is focusing on US inflation data due this week to further determine the path of interest rates. Tariff and inflation concerns have fueled safe-haven buying, with gold up more than 15% this year US President Donald Trump said on Monday that tariffs on imported cars were coming, but hinted that not all of the threatened tariffs would take effect on April 2 and that some countries could be exempted. This is sure to raise concerns that if the tariffs are officially implemented, they could push up inflation and stifle economic growth, so investment flows in the market have shifted to traditional safe-haven assets such as gold for allocation. Gold has always been considered a hedge against inflation and macroeconomic instability. Since the beginning of the year, the price of gold has increased by more than 15% and reached an all-time high of $ 3,057.21 / ounce on March 20. Market Focuses on PCE Inflation Data, Fed Maintains Dovish Expectations The market is now paying attention to the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which will be released on Friday. This index is considered the core data for the Federal Reserve to assess inflation trends and may provide further material for assessing the path of interest rate cuts this year. If the PCE inflation index does not show any unusual changes, it will further strengthen the Fed's dovish stance and continue to push gold prices up. More detailed assessments will be sent to readers in later publications. Last week, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged but signaled it could start cutting rates later this year. Since gold does not yield interest, it is often more attractive in a low-interest-rate environment. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold continues to rally since receiving support from the $3,000 raw price level, which was a key support noted by readers in previous issues. The current position above the 0.50% Fibonacci extension level is a positive signal for gold to target the initial upside target in the weekly issue at $3,051 in the short term, more likely an all-time high. The relative strength index (RSI) is also bent upwards, which should be considered a corrective signal due to the weakening/ending profit-taking momentum. Going forward, the technical structure remains unchanged with the daily chart dominated by the bullish trend with the price channel as the main trend and the EMA21 as the main support. As long as gold remains above the EMA21, it still has a bullish outlook in the medium term, along with that, the notable positions for this trading day will be listed as follows. Support: 3,021 – 3,000 USD Resistance: 3,051 – 3,057 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3062 - 3060⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3066 →Take Profit 1 3054 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3048 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2989 - 2991⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2985 →Take Profit 1 2997 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3003
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
Staying above $3,000, risk cools but still supports GOLDOANDA:XAUUSD prices corrected lower and then recovered slightly, maintaining price action above the $3,000 flat level, which is an important support for the short-term bullish outlook, as US President Trump eased his stance on imposing tariffs on trade partners and market risk appetite increased significantly, putting pressure on safe-haven assets such as gold. In addition, gold prices were also dragged down by the US Dollar hitting a more than two-week high. OANDA:XAUUSD prices have hit a record high 16 times this year, reaching an all-time high of $3,057.21/oz last week. Trump May Exempt Some Countries from Tariffs, Wall Street Optimistic Trading sentiment on Wall Street was positive as US President Trump suggested a partial delay in some tariffs originally scheduled to be imposed on April 2. According to the Wall Street Journal, US President Trump said he may reduce retaliatory tariffs scheduled to be imposed on US trading partners next month and some countries may be exempted. According to Bloomberg, US President Trump announced on April 2 that he would impose tariffs on specific countries instead of reciprocal tariffs on most countries. These measures target the so-called “Dirty 15” trading partners. Trump’s tariff policy stance has shown signs of softening, easing investors’ concerns about the risk of a global trade war. Gold is traditionally seen as a safe investment during times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty, and it typically performs well in low-interest-rate environments. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged last week, signaling the possibility of two 25-basis-point cuts this year. U.S. and Russian officials are holding talks in Saudi Arabia in hopes of making progress on a broad ceasefire in Ukraine. Washington also hopes to negotiate a separate maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea before reaching a broader agreement. Overall, the market is showing some signs of cooling down, providing the possibility of a correction for gold prices after a long period of consecutive increases. However, in terms of the overall market picture, gold is still fundamentally on the rise, as potential risks still appear frequently and any unexpected impact from geopolitical and trade risks will also cause gold prices to increase strongly. Technical outlook analysis of OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold corrects lower but remains fixed above the base price of 3,000 USD, which is noted as an important support for the short-term bullish outlook, sent to readers in the previous issue. In the short term, the upside target is around 3,021 USD, the price point of the 0.50% Fibonacci extension, once this level is broken on gold, it can continue to increase with the target of 3,051 USD in the short term, more than the all-time high then the 0.618% Fibonacci extension. Overall, as long as gold remains within the price channel, above the EMA21, it still has a bullish technical outlook, the current price declines should only be considered as a short-term correction without changing the main trend. During the day, the technical uptrend of gold will be focused again as follows. Support: 3,000 – 2,977 USD Resistance: 3,021 – 3,051 – 3,057 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3037 - 3035⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3041 →Take Profit 1 3029 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3023 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2978 - 2980⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2974 →Take Profit 1 2986 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2992
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [March 24 - March 28]Last week, although the OANDA:XAUUSD had a sharp decrease in the last 2 sessions of the week, overall, the gold price this week continued to increase for the 3rd consecutive week. After opening at 2,985 USD/oz, the gold price increased to 3,057 USD/oz, but then dropped sharply to 2,999 USD/oz in the last session of the week, then recovered and closed the week at 3,023 USD/oz. The reason why the gold price decreased sharply in the last session of last week was because the USD increased again after the FED meeting, when some US economic indicators, such as initial unemployment benefits, production index... were all at a positive level, showing that the US economy has not shown any signs of recession. In addition, some FED officials said that the FED is not in a hurry to continue cutting interest rates, although the FED's dot chart previously showed that the FED will still aim to cut interest rates twice this year. This week, the US will release a number of important indicators, such as PMI, consumer confidence, revised Q4/2024 GDP, and personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Of these, PCE will receive special attention from the market, because this index is the inflation measure that the FED is most interested in. If PCE increases sharply, the FED will continue to cut interest rates. On the contrary, the FED will continue to keep interest rates unchanged in the upcoming meetings. 🕹SOME DATA THAT MAY AFFECT GOLD PRICES NEXT WEEK: Several key economic data releases this week, including the S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs on Monday and the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index on Tuesday, will give the market a clearer picture of where the U.S. economy is headed. However, the most important data for investors will be the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, due Friday morning. Other notable data releases include new home sales on Tuesday, durable goods orders on Wednesday, and pending home sales, weekly unemployment figures, and U.S. fourth-quarter GDP on Thursday. 📌Technically, the key support level for gold this week is around $2,954/oz, while the resistance level is at $3,057/oz. If gold continues to break above $3,057/oz next week, it could open the door for a further rally towards the $3,100/oz resistance zone. On the contrary, gold could face profit-taking pressure, causing the price to fall to around $2,950/oz. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 3,021 – 3,000USD Resistance: 3,051 – 3,057 – 3,065USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3101 - 3099⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3105 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2949 - 2951⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2945
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD at absolute fundamental support but RSI overboughtOANDA:XAUUSD have now fallen to around $3,048/ounce, down $9 from the historic high reached in early Asian trading today, March 20. On Thursday, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced its interest rate decision and summarized economic expectations; Federal Reserve Chairman Powell held a press conference on monetary policy. The FOMC kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50% after the Trump administration imposed tariffs, while officials raised their inflation forecasts for this year and lowered their economic growth forecasts. After concluding a two-day monetary policy meeting, the Federal Reserve announced at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday that it would maintain its benchmark interest rate at 4.25% to 4.5% and announced it would slow the pace of its balance sheet reduction starting in April. The Fed also released its FOMC statement, predicting rising U.S. inflation and lowering its economic growth forecast. Amid signs of stagflation, the Fed still announced that it would cut interest rates twice by 2025, similar to the dovish signal it gave when it cut interest rates sharply last September. The statement noted that recent indicators show that economic activity continues to grow at a solid pace. In recent months, unemployment has remained low, labor market conditions have remained strong, and inflation has remained moderately elevated. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell first mentioned tariffs at a press conference after the meeting, acknowledging that Trump’s policies have affected the economy. Powell also indicated that the policies of the new Trump administration will affect the economy, but he will be careful to avoid making too clear assessments of this impact. Powell also used the word “uncertainty” several times. He reiterated that there is still uncertainty about the potential impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy and highlighted the risks to the Fed’s expectations for employment and inflation. – Bloomberg – Last week, US President Trump raised tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 25% and said new reciprocal tariffs and industrial duties would take effect on April 2. On the geopolitical front, hostilities between Russia and Ukraine continued despite a 30-day ceasefire aimed at halting attacks on energy facilities. Meanwhile, conflict in the Middle East escalated as Reuters reported that an Israeli airstrike on Tuesday killed 400 people. Two UN staff were killed in an attack on the UN building in Deir el Balah, central Gaza Strip, a UN source told AFP on Wednesday. Gold prices have risen more than 15% this year. Gold has long been seen as a safe investment in times of economic or geopolitical uncertainty, and since it does not yield interest, it is even more attractive in a low-interest-rate environment. Technical outlook for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold continues to refresh its all-time highs as it finds support from the 0.50% Fibonacci extension noted by readers in yesterday’s edition and currently has no technical barriers ahead, with the next upside target being the 0.618% Fibonacci extension. While all technical conditions are in favor of the upside with the channel acting as short-term support and the RSI showing no signs of a significant downside correction, downside corrections when they do occur are typically strong after a long period of hot growth like the current one. Traders can definitely prepare for a downside correction with a target of around $3,037 in the short term and the 0.618% Fibonacci extension is a position that can fit this expectation. I will try to describe that if you try to sell around the 0.618% Fibonacci level is a counter-trend decision, but since the RSI has been operating in the overbought area and 6 consecutive bullish sessions have occurred, there is a possibility for a downside correction. However, the need to do for the expectation (Adjustment) means that the open short positions should be completed in the short term because it is counter-trend. During the day, the uptrend in gold prices with the expectation of a downside correction will be noticed again by the following technical levels. Support: $3,037 – $3,021 – $3,000 Resistance: $3,065 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3101 - 3099⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3105 →Take Profit 1 3093 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3087 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2999 - 3001⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2995 →Take Profit 1 3007 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3013
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
Gaza conflict and Trump tariffs push GOLD higher againOANDA:XAUUSD rose more than 1% on Tuesday to a new record high and are currently trading around $3,035/oz, close to yesterday's peak. Trade uncertainty due to rising tensions in the Middle East and US President Trump's tariff plans have boosted investor demand for safe-haven assets. Israeli airstrikes kill more than 400 in Gaza Early Tuesday morning local time, the Israeli military carried out heavy airstrikes on Gaza City in the northern Gaza Strip, Deir el Balah, the Nusayrat refugee camp in the central Gaza Strip, as well as Khan Yunis and Rafah in the south. The British news agency Reuters reported that Israeli airstrikes killed more than 400 people in Gaza, threatening a two-month ceasefire. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the airstrikes were carried out because Hamas has repeatedly refused to release Israeli detainees. Defense Minister Israel Katz warned that if Hamas does not release the detainees, "our attacks will intensify." Hamas said Israel's move was a unilateral end to the ceasefire, leaving Israelis held in Gaza "to face an unknown fate." There were unconfirmed reports that an Iranian vessel collecting intelligence during the Gaza offensive was sunk by US forces, escalating tensions in the Middle East. Saudi media reported on Tuesday that the Iranian Navy's most advanced intelligence ship, the Zagros, was hit by an unidentified missile in the Red Sea on Monday evening local time, causing its hull to be damaged, leaking and sinking. World Media reported that the US military was then attacking Houthi armed forces in the area outside the Red Sea, while the Israel Defense Forces conducted a large-scale bombing of Gaza, and the origin of the missile that hit the Iranian naval vessel could not be determined. Trump's Tariffs Meanwhile, US President Trump has proposed a series of US tariff plans, including a 25% flat tariff on steel and aluminum (which took effect in February), as well as reciprocal tariffs and sectoral tariffs that will be applied on April 2. Trump said he would impose general reciprocal tariffs on April 2, with additional tariffs targeting specific industries. Trump told reporters on Air Force One on Sunday that both tariffs would be applied to foreign goods imported into the United States “under certain circumstances,” “They tax us, we tax them, and then we’ll tax other industries beyond autos, steel, aluminum.” Ultimately, Gold is often considered a safe investment in times of economic or geopolitical uncertainty, and in the current environment, it is still fundamentally well supported. There are also many other supports such as demand from central banks, national reserves, and ETF volumes, the decline of the Dollar, the Fed's monetary policy, etc. Readers can review previous publications for more information. Technical outlook analysis of OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, although the RSI is operating in the overbought area, it has not shown any signal to indicate a significant downside correction. A signal for a correction is a crossover of the RSI below 80. Meanwhile, the sustained price action above the 0.50% Fibonacci extension level is a positive signal with the expectation of further upside and the next target is the 0.618% Fibonacci extension position at the price point of $3,065. Currently, there is no notable resistance ahead, so until the level of 3,065 USD gold can still rise freely. The intraday uptrend of gold will be noticed again by the following notable positions. Support: 3,021 – 3,000 USD Resistance: 3,065 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3068 - 3066⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3072 →Take Profit 1 3060 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3054 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2984 - 2986⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2980 →Take Profit 1 2992 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2998
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [March 17 - March 21]Last week, the international OANDA:XAUUSD increased sharply, from 2,880 USD/oz to 3,005 USD/oz. Then, profit-taking pressure caused the gold price to drop to 2,978 USD/oz and closed the week at 2,986 USD/oz. The reason for the sharp increase in gold prices in recent days is that US inflation figures (CPI, PPI) have decreased more sharply than expected, raising expectations that the FED will cut interest rates twice more this year. In addition, concerns about US public debt have increased as the US Congress is unlikely to pass the Budget Bill, putting the US government at risk of a shutdown. The FED meeting next week will play an important role in shaping expectations about the FED's interest rate policy. This could be the main driver for gold prices next week, given the inverse correlation between gold and the USD. However, in recent comments, the FED Chairman has remained cautious about inflationary pressures due to concerns that the Trump administration's tariff policies will fuel inflation in the medium and long term. Therefore, it is possible that the FED Chairman will continue to maintain interest rates at current levels in the next meetings. If so, this will be a shock to gold prices next week, causing gold prices to fall next week. 🕹SOME DATA THAT MAY AFFECT GOLD PRICES NEXT WEEK: This week is shaping up to be a volatile one for gold, with markets digesting a number of key economic releases. Central banks continue to dominate the calendar, with the Bank of Japan announcing its interest rate decision on Tuesday, followed by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the Swiss National Bank and Bank of England on Thursday. There are also a number of key US economic data releases, including Retail Sales and the Empire State Manufacturing Index on Monday, Housing Starts and Building Permits on Tuesday. On Thursday, markets will be watching the weekly Unemployment Report, Existing Home Sales and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey. 📌Technically, in the short-term perspective on the H1 chart, gold prices next week may maintain their upward momentum to find the 161.8 fibo level around 3035. Or they may temporarily reduce and adjust around the Trendline at 2915. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,977 – 2,956 USD Resistance: 3,000 – 3,021 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3036 - 3034⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3040 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2914 - 2916⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2910
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD surges as geopolitical risks unexpectedly boost gainsOANDA:XAUUSD continued to rise in the short term, with gold prices just hitting a new all-time high of $3,014/oz. As investors focused on US economic data, which raised concerns about an economic slowdown, and escalating tensions in the Middle East, the precious metal's appeal as a safe haven was highlighted. Israel Strikes Hamas Targets Across Gaza, Killing Over 200 Israel said it carried out military airstrikes on Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip, a move that risks derailing a fragile ceasefire. Palestinians reported multiple airstrikes by Israel on various areas of the Gaza Strip. Traders were also looking at U.S. retail sales data, which showed a smaller-than-expected increase in February. Falling yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes also helped boost non-interest-bearing gold. Israel has launched a series of airstrikes on the Gaza Strip as a nearly two-month-old ceasefire appeared to be rapidly unraveling, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying his government would “increase its military force” against Hamas. Palestinians reported Israeli airstrikes in several areas of Gaza on Tuesday morning, and an Israeli statement confirmed the attacks took place across Gaza. Hamas’ media office said on Tuesday that Israeli airstrikes on the Gaza Strip had killed more than 200 people. The attack shattered a fragile ceasefire that had been suspended for 15 months in the war ravaging the Gaza Strip. It was the heaviest bombing since a ceasefire brokered by Egypt, Qatar and other countries took effect in January. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD After reaching and breaking the original price level which is also the bullish price target of 3,000 USD, gold is continuing to aim for the target level behind that, pay attention to readers last week at 3,021 USD in the short term, which is the location of the 0.50% Fibonacci extension level. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sloping up with a significant slope and has not completely moved above the overbought area, showing that momentum and room for growth is still ahead. Next, the main trend and outlook remains bullish with price channels and mid- to short-term trend. The main support is seen by the EMA21. As long as gold remains above the EMA21, it remains technically bullish, the current dips should only be considered as a short-term correction or a buying opportunity. The following areas of interest will also be noted. Support: $3,000 – $2,977 Resistance: $3,021 – $3,065 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3036 - 3034⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3040 →Take Profit 1 3028 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3022 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2949 - 2951⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2945 →Take Profit 1 2957 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2963
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
WTI increased slightly and decreased rapidly, downtrend TVC:USOIL prices rose slightly by about 1% in Asian trading on Monday before falling sharply, largely due to the continued US military crackdown on Houthi militias. US Pete Hegseth said on Sunday that the US military will continue to fight the Houthis until they stop attacking international shipping lanes. The US has previously conducted airstrikes in Yemen, causing casualties among Houthi fighters. The Houthis have hinted that they could take stronger retaliatory actions, adding to market concerns that the situation in the Red Sea will continue to escalate. While geopolitical tensions pushed oil prices higher, concerns about global economic growth limited gains. Goldman Sachs analysts have lowered their oil price forecasts based on the following points: • The Trump administration’s new tariffs on Mexico and Canada could restrict global trade and lead to lower-than-previously expected US economic growth. • The slowdown in economic growth will lead to lower oil demand, and Goldman Sachs expects oil demand growth in the coming months to be lower than previously estimated by the market. • OPEC+ supply could exceed expectations, and while the market is currently focused on the situation in the Middle East, overall supply remains relatively abundant. • The market expects signs of a slowdown in the US economy to keep oil prices under pressure in the long term, although geopolitical factors could still support prices in the short term. In addition, the market is paying attention to the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on March 18-19. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged while continuing to assess the impact of the Trump administration's policies on the economy. If the economic outlook continues to deteriorate, the possibility of the Federal Reserve adjusting its policy this year cannot be ruled out. WTI Crude Oil Technical Outlook Analysis TVC:USOIL On the daily chart, WTI crude oil is temporarily in the accumulation phase but with the current position and structure, the downtrend is still dominant with the short-term trend being noticed by the price channel, the medium-term by the price channel and the nearest pressure from the EMA21. The recovery momentum of WTI crude oil is also limited by the 0.50% Fibonacci extension level, and as long as crude oil fails to move above the EMA21 and break above the price channel, it still has a main bearish outlook. In the short term, the downside target is around $65, the low since September 10, 2024, followed by the 0.786% Fibonacci extension. Notable positions for the WTI crude oil downside trend will be listed again as follows. Support: $66.63 – $65.33 Resistance: $67.85 – $68.52 – $69.07
TVC:USOILShort
by Xayah_trading
GOLD nears $3,000 as trade tensions escalateOANDA:XAUUSD have surged to an all-time high, just shy of the key $3,000-an-ounce mark as global trade tensions and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut push them closer to a record high. They have risen nearly 14% this year, following a 27% gain in 2024. WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Donald Trump on Thursday threatened to impose 200% tariffs on wine, champagne and other alcoholic beverages from France and the rest of the European Union, marking a further escalation in global trade tensions. Trump tweeted Thursday that he would impose import tariffs if the European Union continues to impose duties on U.S. whiskey exports. The EU's move is in retaliation for Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs that took effect on Wednesday. Trump also had harsher words for the European Union. The EU has been one of the United States' closest allies for decades. Trump posted on his Truth Social platform: "The European Union is one of the most hostile and abusive tax and tariff organizations in the world, and their sole purpose is to take advantage of the United States. They just put a disgusting 50% tariff on whiskey. If this tariff is not removed immediately, the United States will soon put a 200% tariff on all wine, champagne and spirits coming from France and other EU member states. This will be a tremendous boon to the American wine and champagne industry." Trump’s trade policy changes have boosted the price of gold, an asset favored by investors during times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty. In addition, the Wall Street Journal reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin had rejected plans for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine, which also contributed to the safe-haven buying of gold. Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that Russia will not agree to an immediate end to fighting in Ukraine and called for further discussions on ending the war permanently, The Wall Street Journal reported. Moscow’s military is now advancing rapidly, aiming to push Ukrainian troops out of the Kursk region. Putin said any ceasefire at this stage would be in Ukraine’s interests because Russia is winning on the battlefield and there are many issues that need to be resolved before a ceasefire can be reached. SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, said its holdings rose to 907.82 tonnes on February 25, the highest since August 2023. Meanwhile, data from China's central bank showed China bought gold for a fourth straight month in February. Over the weekend, data on US consumer confidence and inflation expectations will be less in the spotlight than tariffs and geopolitical headlines. For economic data, readers can find more details in the signature section through brief comments during the day. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is down slightly year-to-date after approaching the important raw price level of $3,000. The current correction is also not significant as the uptrend will still dominate the chart with the price channel as the nearest support at present, the main support is noted by the EMA21 and the other support is the 0.382% Fibonacci extension level. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has not yet risen above the overbought zone, indicating that there is still room for upside. Intraday, as long as gold remains above the price channel and the 0.382% Fibonacci extension level, its main short-term outlook remains bullish. Even if gold falls below the aforementioned support area, it remains in an overall bullish trend, so the current declines should be viewed as a short-term correction or a buying opportunity. Next, the target will be the full price point of $3,000 in the short term and more at the 0.50% Fibonacci extension level. The notable positions for the day are listed as follows. Support: $2,977 – $2,956 Resistance: $3,000 – $3,021 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3037 - 3035⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3041 →Take Profit 1 3029 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3023 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2949 - 2951⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2945 →Take Profit 1 2957 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2963
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD hits Bullish targets, heading for all-time highAs tariff uncertainty pushed money into safe havens, cooling US inflation kept market expectations of a Fed rate cut intact and optimism over a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine cooled, OANDA:XAUUSD surged and broke out of its recent sideways consolidation trading range. OANDA:XAUUSD surged past the $2,942/oz target on safe-haven demand. Weaker US CPI data also supported expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, pushing gold higher. The US consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.8% year-on-year in February, slightly below the 2.9% expected and down from January's 3.0%. The year-on-year increase in the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, eased to 3.1% from January's 3.3%. Recent news of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine also cooled earlier optimism. British news agency Reuters reported on Wednesday that Russian officials were skeptical about the U.S. proposal for a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Wednesday that the Kremlin was still waiting for the United States to announce its proposal for a ceasefire in Ukraine. The Kremlin needs to hear the results of the U.S.-Ukraine talks before commenting on whether Russia can accept the ceasefire. Commenting on a ceasefire proposal that has been accepted by both U.S. and Ukrainian officials, an influential Russian lawmaker insisted on Wednesday that any deal must be reached on Russian terms, not U.S. A senior Russian source said President Vladimir Putin would be unlikely to agree to a ceasefire proposal without finalizing the terms and receiving some guarantees. Ukraine accepted a US proposal for a 30-day ceasefire with Russia on Tuesday in exchange for the Trump administration resuming suspended military aid and intelligence sharing. The deal was announced by US and Ukrainian officials after eight hours of talks in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday. Trump said US officials would meet with their Russian counterparts on Wednesday and he could meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin this week. The World Gold Council (WGC) revealed that central banks continued to buy gold. The People's Bank of China and the National Bank of Poland added 10 tonnes and 29 tonnes of gold, respectively, in the first two months of 2025. Traders will next keep a close eye on the release of the US producer price index (PPI) for February, initial jobless claims and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment data. OANDA:XAUUSD technical outlook analysis On the daily chart, as of the time of writing, gold has achieved all the bullish targets noted by readers in the weekly publication, along with all the conditions for the possibility of a price increase when there is no more resistance ahead other than the all-time high. The short-term price channel is noted as the trend at the moment, along with the Relative Strength Index RSI maintaining above 50, surpassing 61, showing that the bullish momentum dominates the market and there is still a lot of room for price increase ahead because it is still quite far from reaching the overbought area. The most notable supports now are the $2,929 level in the short term, followed by the EMA21 area. Overall, the uptrend is dominating on the daily chart, with notable price levels listed below. Support: $2,929 – $2,915 Resistance: $2,956 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2761 - 2974⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2980 →Take Profit 1 2968 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2962 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2904 - 2906⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2900 →Take Profit 1 2912 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2918
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
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