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Maintain neutrality, pay attention to US data todayAs of press time on Tuesday (January 7), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery maintains a moderate recovery trend during the day, with gold prices currently around 2,639 USD/ounce. Gold prices continue to stabilize, with technical trends unchanged from previous releases. During this trading day, US macro data will be in focus with the data mentioned below expected to create significant volatility in the short term. Today (Tuesday), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). This important employment data is expected to cause large fluctuations in gold prices this trading day. Economists predict that there will be 7.7 million JOLT job openings in the United States in November, compared with 7.744 million in October. The JOLTS job vacancy report was one of the labor force indicators that U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen valued most when she was chair of the Federal Reserve. This index is also labor market data that the Fed is very interested in. Additionally, on the same day, the US ISM non-manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) for December will be published and is expected to be 53.5, compared to the previous value of 52.1. In terms of technical structure, OANDA:XAUUSD Still mainly accumulating activities with price activities sticking around the EMA21 line. And the cumulative sideways trend is depicted by the purple price triangle. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index is also sticking around 50, showing that market sentiment is also hesitant and waiting for a significant fundamental impact to create a short-term trend. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices is neutral, moving sideways and accumulating with notable levels that will be listed as follows. Support: 2,634 – 2,604 – 2,600USD Resistance: 2,664 – 2,693USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2658 - 2656⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2662 →Take Profit 1 2651 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2646 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2623 - 2625⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2519 →Take Profit 1 2630 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2640
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [January 06 - January 10]OANDA:XAUUSD are almost trading in a narrow range throughout the Christmas holiday and New Year 2025. Currently, gold prices have not yet escaped the triangle model of the H4 technical chart. Entering 2025, three important factors can shape the price of gold. First, the big event will take place on January 20 this year when Donald Trump takes office as US President. Mr. Trump is likely to put pressure on the FED to influence the interest rate environment. Second, Mr. Trump will heat up the trade war with other countries, especially with Canada, Mexico, Europe and China. This means economic growth could suffer and geopolitical instability could linger. Third, we are in a period where most investors will reallocate investment flows into their portfolios. As economic and political variables are gradually changing. In the long term, gold prices may continue to be influenced by the above factors. But in the short term this week, the market will focus on important US economic data, such as manufacturing and service PMI index; Employment indicators: ADP, NFP, unemployment rate... If US employment figures, especially NFP, increase stronger than expected, gold prices will be under pressure to adjust. On the contrary, if US employment figures continue to decline sharply, it will positively support gold prices. 📌Technically, from a short-term perspective this week, there are 2 resistance levels to pay attention to: the resistance level at 2685 and the round resistance level at 2600. In case the resistance level is broken, corresponding to the price breaking through the Downtrend line, the price will Gold will continue to maintain its upward trend to the 2720-2790 thresholds respectively. In the opposite case, if the gold price drops from the Uptrend line, we will see a scenario where the price drops back around the 2530 threshold. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,634 – 2,604 – 2,600USD Resistance: 2,664 – 2,693USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2686 - 2684⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2690 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2599 - 2601⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2595
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD soars on positive conditions, despite USD strengthOANDA:XAUUSD continued to increase after a strong increase in yesterday's trading day. Gold price is currently at about 2,663 USD/ounce. Despite the strength of the US Dollar, spot gold still rose to its highest level in more than two weeks, due to safe-haven buying and falling US bond interest rates. The market is rushing to open positions before the Trump administration's tariff and trade policies are introduced. US media exclusively reported: Biden discussed a plan to attack Iran's nuclear facility before Trump took office US President Joe Biden has discussed plans to attack Iran's nuclear facilities before Trump's inauguration on January 20 if Tehran accelerates its development of nuclear weapons, US website Axios reported. Reuters reported that Russia carried out drone attacks in Kiev early Wednesday morning, causing damage to two areas, while Israel attacked a community near Gaza City. The market at the beginning of the year will pay close attention to the development of geopolitical risks. Any sign of tension in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine could send the price of gold, the traditional safe haven, higher. Gold is considered a hedge against geopolitical instability and discovery risk, but because it doesn't earn interest, it does better in a low interest rate environment. The latest report from Britain's Reuters today (Friday) said that Gaza authorities said an Israeli air strike on Thursday killed at least 68 Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, including a tent camp and people standing head of the Hamas-controlled police force in the Gaza Strip. His deputy and nine evacuees died there. The attack took place in the Al-Mawasi area, which was previously designated a humanitarian zone for civilians during the 14-month war between Israel and Hamas, which rules Gaza. According to the Hamas-controlled Interior Ministry, Gaza police chief Mahmoud Salah and his assistant Hussam Shahwan were killed in the attack while they were checking in refugees. The Gaza Interior Ministry added in a statement: "By committing the crime of assassinating the Gaza Strip police chief, the occupiers are determined to spread chaos in (the enclave) and deepen the suffering of people." Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After struggling for quite a while in the area of ​​the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level yesterday, since gold broke this important confluence around 2,634 USD, it has had bullish conditions in the short term. The area of ​​POC Volume Profile with EMA21 and Fibonacci 0.618% now becomes a short-term support area. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index also rose above the 50 level, which should be considered a positive signal as the current 50 level also becomes support for the RSI in the short term. Temporarily, the gold price chart is limiting its upward momentum by the 0.50% Fibonacci level and if gold continues to break this level it will tend to increase further with the next target being $2,693 which is the position of the upper edge of the triangle. purple price tag. Thus, the intraday trend of gold prices will be noticed again by the following levels. Support: 2,634 – 2,640USD Resistance: 2,664 – 2,693USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2694 - 2692⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2698 →Take Profit 1 2687 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2682 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2629 - 2631⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2525 →Take Profit 1 2636 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2641
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD maintains a narrow recovery rangeOANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery maintains a recovery trend and narrow range during the day. As of the time of writing, gold price is currently trading at about 2,633 USD/ounce. On this trading day, investors will pay attention to many important data such as the number of initial jobless claims in the United States, PMI and the housing market, which are expected to stimulate activate market conditions and create market volatility. Today (Thursday), seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims in the United States for the week of December 28 will be released, expected to be 224,000, compared to 219,000 the previous week. If the latest initial unemployment claims are lower than expected, this will have a positive impact on the US Dollar and affect the price of gold and major non-US currencies. On the same day, the final value of the US Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for December will be announced, expected to be 48.3. US construction spending in November will be released, with the monthly rate expected to increase 0.3%. On the daily chart it's OANDA:XAUUSD is still trading in a very narrow operating range, with temporary short-term rallies still limited by pressure from the EMA21 and the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level. Note to readers in digital publications out first. Temporarily, gold's trend is quite neutral with the possibility of accumulation depicted by the purple triangle. However, based on the current position, gold has more conditions to decrease in price with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) still below level 50, level 50 is considered resistance or support for RSI depending on conditions. RSI's lawsuit. On the other hand, gold could open a new bearish cycle once it is sold below the 0.786% Fibonacci level and the subsequent target of $2,538 in the short term. Even if gold recovers above EMA21, it is still unable to create a concrete uptrend, with pressure from the upper edge of the purple price triangle. Using the POC Volume Profile we will also see that the area around 2,634 – 2,640USD is an area where a lot of trading occurs, this should be considered a pressure area given gold's current position. During the day, gold's trend is neutral with technical conditions tilted to the downside and notable levels are listed below. Support: 2,604 – 2,600USD Resistance: 2,640USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2651 - 2649⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2655 →Take Profit 1 2644 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2639 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2599 - 2601⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2595 →Take Profit 1 2606 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2611
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD tries to recover after the holidayOn this trading day, gold traders OANDA:XAUUSD will need to focus on data on initial jobless claims in the US, which could have an impact on market trends in the short term. The seasonally adjusted number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the week of December 21 will be released today (Thursday) and is expected to be 224,000. Data released last week showed initial jobless claims in the United States fell from 242,000 to 220,000 in the week ended December 14, below expectations of 230,000, showing signs that the labor market movement is still steady. If the latest initial unemployment claims turn out to be lower than expected, this will have a positive impact on the US Dollar and a negative impact on the price of gold and major non-US currencies. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has recovered from the technical level of $2,613, but the recovery is still limited by the upper edge of the price channel, along with the nearest resistance level noted at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement point. % and EMA21. Considering the current price position, gold still has a technical outlook of falling in price with the main trend being noticed by the price channel. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index has not yet surpassed the 50 level, the 50 level is considered resistance/support depending on the position of the RSI and on the current daily chart it is considered a resistance. In the short term, if gold falls below the technical level of $2,613 it will have room to fall a bit further with a target level then around $2,600 and more to the $2,592 price point of the 0.786% Fibonacci retracement. . As long as gold does not break above the price channel, with price activity stabilizing above the EMA21, it remains biased to the downside, with notable levels listed below. Along with that, using POC Volume Profile, at 2,646USD there is also a large trading volume, this position should also be considered a technical resistance. Support: 2,613 – 2,600 – 2,592USD Resistance: 2,634 – 2,646USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2651 - 2649⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2655 →Take Profit 1 2644 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2639 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2589 - 2591⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2585 →Take Profit 1 2596 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2601
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD trading liquidity is low during the Christmas holidayAmid sluggish trading during the holiday season, OANDA:XAUUSD decreased slightly, dragged down by the strength of the US Dollar and high US Treasury bond yields. And the market needs to wait for clearer signals from the Federal Reserve's 2025 monetary policy. Although the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week, this signaled fewer rate cuts in 2025, sending gold prices to their lowest since mid-month 11 last week. While non-yielding gold benefits from the low interest rate environment, the market will need to readjust expectations for the year ahead. The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and fewer interest rate cuts in 2025 have weighed on gold prices, and gold will face pressure during the holiday week. Interest rate cuts initially boosted gold prices, but the Fed's forecast of only two rate cuts by 2025 (down from four in September) sparked a sell-off that sent gold prices to lows. lowest since mid-November. With economic data limited this week due to the Christmas holiday, gold prices are expected to remain in a tight range. Liquidity remains low, reducing volatility and keeping price action subdued. Gold has hit multiple record highs this year and is up 27% year to date, its best annual gain since 2010, thanks to strong central bank buying, geopolitical tensions and monetary policy monetary easing by major banks. President-elect Donald Trump will take office on January 20. The market is about to return to trading in a Donald Trump environment, we cannot forget the trading period when he was in office, how the market fluctuated with his emotions on each line. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold continues to maintain activity below the confluence resistance area noted by readers in yesterday's publication at the upper price channel edge and the 0.618% Fibonacci level, to maintain the trend. main discount. While the recovery has been limited, gold is also trading above the $2,613 technical level, and gold could fall a bit further with a target of around $2,591 as it is sold below $2,613. The relative strength index (RSI) is operating below 50, which should be considered a negative signal for the trend of gold prices. During the day, as long as gold remains below the EMA21, the upper price channel edge and the 0.618% Fibonacci, it remains inclined towards a bearish outlook with notable technical points listed as follows. Support: 2,613 – 2,600 – 2,591USD Resistance: 2,634 – 2,643USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2646 - 2644⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2650 →Take Profit 1 2639 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2634 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2594 - 2596⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2590 →Take Profit 1 2601 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2606
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD recovered quite strongly, falling after FOMCOn the Asian market today (Thursday, December 19), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot trading recovered strongly after a sharp decline in the previous trading day. Gold price reached its highest level at the time of writing at 2,618 USD/ounce, an increase of nearly 30 USD during the day. The market will next receive US economic data, including final third-quarter GDP and weekly unemployment claims. Market attention will then turn to Friday's release of the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, which will boost the U.S.'s copper performance. US Dollar and gold in the short term. FOMC On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected and predicted less policy easing in 2025. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said the threshold for the next rate cut could be higher, which sent the US Dollar and US Treasury yields soaring, while at the same time, Gold fell more than 2% to a one-month low in trading on Wednesday. Federal Reserve officials cut interest rates for a third straight time on Wednesday, but lowered their forecast for the number of rate cuts next year, signaling they are increasingly cautious about being able to reduce spending. How quickly does the loan cost? The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 11-1 on Wednesday to lower the federal funds rate to a range of 4.25%-4.5%. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack voted against, in favor of keeping interest rates unchanged. In the FOMC policy statement, Fed officials noted that economic activity continued to expand at a solid pace. Labor market conditions have generally eased since the beginning of this year, with the unemployment rate rising but remaining low. Inflation has made progress toward the committee's 2% target but remains high. The new Dotplot chart shows some officials expect fewer interest rate cuts next year than they estimated just a few months ago. Fed officials currently expect the benchmark interest rate to be between 3.75% - 4% by the end of 2025, which, according to the median estimate, would mean two rate cuts of 25 points each. basic. Jerome Powell The Fed will cut interest rates only twice next year amid rising inflation, according to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, a forecast consistent with Trump's wait-and-see approach when he returned to the White House in January. Powell said Fed policymakers want to see more progress in reducing inflation when considering future rate-cutting strategies. US federal funds rate futures have reflected that the Federal Reserve will leave its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged at its policy meeting on January 28-29 next year. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Thus, gold has enough conditions to decrease in price after falling below the 0.618% Fibonacci level and bringing price activity back below the EMA21 moving average, with a sudden impact from fundamental factors. In the short term, although gold recovered from the 0.786% Fibonacci retracement level at $2,591, which was the bearish target noted by previous readers, it could still continue to decline further with a target around $2,538. . When the Relative Strength Index dropped below the 50 mark and was quite far from the oversold area, it showed that there is still plenty of room for price decline ahead. During the day, gold price increases as long as they do not surpass the 0.618% Fibonacci level and EMA21 should only be considered short-term recovery. Along with that, the downward trend in gold prices will be noticed again by the following technical levels. Support: 2,591 – 2,552 – 2,538USD Resistance: 2,624 – 2,634USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2635 - 2633⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2639 →Take Profit 1 2628 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2623 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2549 - 2551⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2546 →Take Profit 1 2556 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2561
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD rebound and limited, trading week with ChristmasUS economic data shows inflation is slowing. Supported by the weakening of the TVC:DXY and US Treasury bond interest rates, OANDA:XAUUSD continued to increase on Friday (December 18). However, the Fed's hawkish interest rate outlook caused gold prices to fall 0.9% last week. The Federal Reserve's headline inflation index (PCE) showed price pressures eased last month. According to data released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.1% over the previous month. in November, slower than the 0.3% increase in October. The increase was slightly lower than economists' expectations of 0.2%. On a yearly basis, core PCE rose 2.8%, matching the increase in October and below Wall Street expectations of 2.9%. Overall PCE increased 2.4% year-over-year, up from 2.3% in October. Earlier this month, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes food and gas prices, showed prices rose 3.3% year-on-year in November, marking the fourth straight month of increases. Meanwhile, the core Producer Price Index (PPI), which tracks price changes across companies, showed prices rose 3.4% year-on-year in November. The increase was higher October's 3.1% increase also exceeded economists' expectations of 3.2%. At a press conference following Wednesday's interest rate decision, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the final phase of the Fed's response to inflation will be more difficult than initially expected. “We were forecasting inflation at the end of the year, but as we got closer to the end of the year, the forecast was off a little bit,” Powell said. “I would say that's probably the biggest factor, inflation is once again missing expectations.” So far this year, inflation has slowed but remains above the Fed's 2% target, pressured by recent unexpectedly hot monthly "core" price growth data. According to the Fed's latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the Fed expects core inflation to peak at 2.5% next year, up from a forecast of 2.2% in September and falling to 2.0%. 2% in 2026 and 2027 to 2.0%. Higher inflation expectations, coupled with a slower pace of interest rate cuts next year, have weighed on markets. On the other hand, the election of Donald Trump as the next president has added to this uncertainty, with some economists suggesting that the United States could face another surge in inflation if Trump makes his move. True to his campaign promises. Policies proposed by Trump such as imposing high tariffs on imported goods, cutting taxes on businesses and restricting immigration could have an inflationary effect. These policies further complicate the Fed's future interest rate path. Data and events this week The market will also welcome the Christmas holiday this week, traders will focus on important events such as "where to get money to buy gifts for bears, where to go so as not to eat dog food, or open the door." Is it a pan or a greeting, honey,... I don't know but I wish you all a happy Christmas and good health hehe." However, some important economic data will be released. Economic data to watch out for this week Monday: US consumer confidence Tuesday: US sustainable goods, US new home sales Wednesday: Christmas break Thursday: US weekly unemployment claims Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold recovered from the 0.786% Fibonacci level during the weekend trading session, but the recovery is also limited after testing the target resistance level noted by readers in the previous issue at the confluence of the upper edge. price channel and Fibonacci level 0.618%. Currently, the closing position still supports the possibility of a technical bearish price for gold, with the price channel as the main trend price channel, resistance from Fibonacci 0.618% and pressure at Ema21. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index is still operating below the 50 level, quite far from the oversold area, which shows that there is still quite a lot of room for price decline ahead. As long as gold remains below EMA21, within price channel, it still has a bearish technical outlook and the notable points are listed below. Support: 2,591 – 2,552 – 2,538USD Resistance: 2,634 – 2,656USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2646 - 2644⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2650 →Take Profit 1 2639 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2634 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2604 - 2606⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2600 →Take Profit 1 2611 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2616
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Dec 22 - Dec 27]This week, OANDA:XAUUSD fell quite sharply from 2,664 USD/oz to 2,582 USD/oz, then recovered to 2,631 USD/oz and closed the week at 2,622 USD/oz. The reason gold prices dropped sharply this week is because the FED cut interest rates by another 0.25% as predicted. However, what caused disappointed investors to sell off gold was because the Fed chairman said he would only cut interest rates two more times in 2025. Previously, in September 2024, the FED predicted four more cuts. interest rate next year. In the same context, the US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index in November increased by 2.8% over the same period last year, unchanged compared to October, but still much higher than the target. of the Fed is 2%. This also strengthens the possibility that the FED will reduce the current monetary easing cycle. Furthermore, Donald Trump is about to take office as US President for his second term. If Mr. Trump implements a fiscal expansion policy and sharply increases tariffs with America's trading partners, it will significantly reduce the country's trade deficit, meaning the supply of USD will decrease sharply, pushing the currency This increases, thereby negatively affecting gold prices. Furthermore, Mr. Trump's tax policy also increases inflation, forcing the Fed to delay cutting interest rates, or even raise interest rates again if inflation skyrockets. Next week's gold price is likely to be torn between FED's monetary policy and geopolitical instability. However, next week, most international investors will be on holiday for Christmas and New Year 2025, so gold trading volume will decrease sharply, causing gold prices next week to only fluctuate within a narrow range. 📌From a technical perspective, next week's gold price will likely continue to adjust and accumulate. Accordingly, if next week's gold price still trades above the threshold of 2,582 USD/oz, it will continue to move sideways within the range of 2,585 - 2,665 USD/oz before the holiday. On the contrary, if next week's gold price is pushed below 2,582 USD/oz, there is a risk of falling to 2,530 USD/oz. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,591 – 2,552 – 2,538USD Resistance: 2,623 – 2,634 – 2,656USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2666 - 2664⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2670 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2529 - 2531⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2525
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD is neutral on the most important event day of the weekOANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery decreased under pressure from the US Dollar and US Treasury bond interest rates increased sharply. Strong US retail sales data caused gold prices to plummet to a week low of 2,633 USD/ounce yesterday trading day. Today (Wednesday), markets will focus on the Federal Reserve's final policy meeting of the year. About economic data US retail sales rose more than expected in November, fueling rising inflation data in recent months and suggesting the Federal Reserve may pause interest rate cuts in January next year. Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Tuesday showed retail sales rose 0.7% month-on-month in November, the highest growth rate since September and above the 0.6% gain. expected. Retail sales data for the first two months of the year was revised upward and October data was revised from a monthly increase of 0.4% to 0.5%. The most important event this trading week On Thursday, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its interest rate resolution and summary of economic expectations. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Investors will need to pay close attention to the meeting statement and the press conference held by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell after the meeting to further assess future policy trends. The Fed's updated economic forecasts and Dotplot charts are also the focus of market attention as they could reshape expectations about the trajectory of interest rates in 2025 and 2026. On Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a press conference on monetary policy. What Powell "breathes" out will create big fluctuations in the market. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's "FedWatch Tool" shows traders see a 95.4% chance the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday. Additionally, investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 100 basis points by 2025. So the question is whether the Fed will be more hawkish or dovish than the market expects. Because of Trump's victory, the market will have to reassess the Fed's interest rate expectations, and may need to be more cautious about further interest rate cuts at this time. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold attempted to recover after testing the 0.618% Fibonacci level, a position that readers noticed in the previous issue. Temporarily, the trend of gold prices is noticed by the price channel, however the position is quite neutral with price activity around EMA21 and the Relative Strength Index also sticking around 50. Perhaps, the technical chart needs a sudden impact to create a trend, and considering the current position, gold could increase in price if it breaks above the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level then the target level is about 2,676USD In the short term, more than $2,693. On the other hand, if gold is sold below the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement support level, it could open a new bearish cycle with price activity returning to the price channel and the target then being around 2,591USD in the medium term. During the day, the technical trend is neutral and notable points will be listed as follows. Support: 2,634 – 2,603 ​​– 2,600USD Resistance: 2,663 – 2,676 – 2,693USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2680 - 2678⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2684 →Take Profit 1 2673 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2668 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2621 - 2623⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2617 →Take Profit 1 2628 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2633
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD stable, pay attention to data and upcoming eventsOn the Asian market on Tuesday (December 17), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery is basically stable, gold price is currently around 2,651 USD/ounce and there are almost no significant fluctuations. In the coming days, the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan will hold monetary policy meetings to decide on interest rates, while also hinting at what 2025 might hold. The Fed is expected to cut base interest rates by 25 basis points. The change has long been priced in, meaning the focus will be on the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), or Dotplot chart, in which policymakers detail their expectations on inflation, growth, interest rates and employment. These will have a significant impact on the US Dollar. CME's "Fed Tracker" shows traders see a 95.4% chance the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday. Today (Tuesday), the US Census Bureau will release retail sales data for November, which is expected to trigger market volatility during this trading day. Surveys show U.S. retail sales are expected to rise 0.5% monthly in November, after rising 0.4% in October. US retail sales data typically has a greater impact on financial markets, potentially influencing the trend of assets such as the US dollar and gold. If US retail sales data is stronger than expected, the US Dollar could strengthen, thus pushing gold prices back down; On the other hand, a weaker-than-expected retail sales report will stimulate a recovery in gold prices. In addition, on the same day, the NAHB home price index in the US will be announced for December, which is expected to increase slightly to 47 from the previous value of 46. In terms of technical structure, not much has changed so readers can review the previous weekly publication linked below. In the coming time, the technical chart of gold prices will be noticed by some notable patterns as follows. Support: 2,644 – 2,634USD Resistance: 2,663 – 2,676 – 2,693USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2680 - 2678⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2684 →Take Profit 1 2673 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2668 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2621 - 2623⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2617 →Take Profit 1 2628 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2633
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD corrects in 2 days, still has bullish conditions next weekOANDA:XAUUSD fell as the USD held steady at its highest level in more than 2 weeks. However, the market expects the Federal Reserve will still cut interest rates next week and gold prices still have conditions for a possible increase in price. OANDA:XAUUSD has broken multiple record highs this year, supported by Fed monetary policy, strong central bank buying and safe-haven demand. Traders currently assess a 96% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its December 17-18 meeting. Focus will also be on Chairman Jerome Powell's comments as market participants analyze US monetary policy in 2025, especially given President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plans , is very likely to add to inflation. Central banks often keep interest rates high to curb inflation, thereby increasing the opportunity cost of holding unprofitable gold. Pay special attention to the upcoming Fed interest rate decision The Fed's monetary policy statement next week could be the last major impact for gold this year outside of unforeseen geopolitical surprises. Next Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision after a two-day policy meeting. The Fed is expected to cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.25%-4.5%. The Fed will also release a revised Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), known as a Dotplot chart. In September, SEP showed that Fed officials' median forecast for the policy rate at the end of 2025 was 3.4%. If the 2025 interest rate forecast is revised downward, i.e. cutting interest rates by more than 100 basis points, it could have a direct negative impact on the Dollar and this would push gold prices higher. Markets will also be closely watching comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. If Powell takes a cautious approach to further policy easing, emphasizing a gradual approach, the dollar is likely to remain strong as it remains supported by President-elect Donald Trump. On the other hand, the US Dollar will come under selling pressure if Powell expresses growing concerns about the cooling labor market and its potential negative impact on the growth outlook. Data next week Next Thursday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the final revised data on gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter, and next Friday will release the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE). The economic calendar needs attention next week Monday: Empire State manufacturing survey, S&P flash PMI Tuesday: US retail sales Wednesday: Federal Reserve monetary policy decision Thursday: Bank of England monetary policy decision; US weekly unemployment claims; US Q3 GDP, Philly Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey, Existing Home Sales Friday: Personal consumption expenditure index (PCE) Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold closed the week in a crucial position for upside as it still has bullish conditions. Specifically, the daily chart still shows that gold prices maintain activity above EMA21 and above the technical level of 2,644 USD. Note to readers in the previous edition. In addition, the Relative Strength Index decreased but stayed above 50, which does not show any negative signals. In the near term, if gold brings price activity back above the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level, it will have the conditions to recover more to the $2,676 level in the short term, more than the 0.382% Fibonacci level and the original price point. 2,700 USD. Overall, gold still has a bullish outlook. However, a negative situation is likely to appear once gold breaks below the 0.618% Fibonacci level because it will tend to retest the 0.786% Fibonacci level with a price point of 2,591USD. Therefore, open long positions will need to be protected when this situation occurs. In the coming time, the technical chart of gold prices will be noticed by some notable patterns as follows. Support: 2,644 – 2,634USD Resistance: 2,663 – 2,676 – 2,693USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2680 - 2678⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2684 →Take Profit 1 2673 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2668 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2621 - 2623⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2617 →Take Profit 1 2628 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2633
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Dec 16 - Dec 20]At the beginning of this week, OANDA:XAUUSD quite strongly from 2,627 USD/oz to 2,726 USD/oz, but then dropped sharply to 2,645 USD/oz and closed the week at 2,648 USD/oz. The reason why international gold prices increased sharply in the first sessions of this week was because investors reacted to the fact that the People's Bank of China (PBoC) returned to buying 5 tons of gold in November after many months of temporarily stopping buying. reserve gold. Even with the six-month hiatus, the PBoC bought 34 tons of gold this year and remains one of the top central banks buying gold in 2024. However, gold currently accounts for less than 6% of China's total foreign exchange reserves. This shows that the PBoC's room to continue buying gold reserves is still very large, especially when US-China tensions are increasingly escalating when President-elect Donald Trump threatens to impose very high tariffs on China. However, after rising to 2,726 USD/oz earlier this week, gold prices once again fell sharply because US inflation remained persistent, affecting expectations of the FED's monetary easing cycle. While the decision on FED monetary policy will receive more attention next Wednesday, the gold market will also receive important economic data that can impact the FED's monetary easing cycle, such as retail sales, revised third quarter GDP of the US... 📌Technically, the gold price still maintains an uptrend on the Daily technical chart, as the price is still above the EMA89 moving average. However, on the H4 chart, the movement of the moving average shows that the price is accumulating sideways, the resistance area to pay attention to is around the 2725 mark, while the important support zone is around the round resistance mark of 2600. In the coming week Many influential information can cause gold prices to fluctuate strongly beyond this sideways range. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,644 – 2,634USD Resistance: 2,663 – 2,676 – 2,693USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2751 - 2749⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2755 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2579 - 2581⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2575
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD corrects, possibility remains optimistic as FOMC is comingOANDA:XAUUSD eased the correction significantly, which was partly due to the market taking profits after gold prices hit a five-week high and rushing to close positions ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting. In addition, higher US bond interest rates also affect gold prices. OANDA:XAUUSD fell sharply on Thursday and was limited this trading day (Friday), as of press time, as traders booked profits following the release of US PPI data. PPI data exceeded expectations, suggesting the fight against inflation may be stalling. In addition, the 10-year US Treasury bond interest rate increased slightly by 1.5 basis points to 4.289%, which also put pressure on gold. The US producer price index (PPI) rose higher than expected in November due to soaring food costs. The U.S. Department of Labor reported on Thursday that the U.S. PPI rose 3% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month in November. Previous market expectations were 2% .6% and 0.2%. Although Wednesday's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) was in line with expectations, it still rose at a seven-month high. However, gold is expected to hold onto gains this week as optimism grows that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week. Traders' attention is turning to the prospect that the Federal Reserve may pause policy easing as early as 2025. Lower borrowing costs typically benefit gold because gold itself does not create out yield. According to a report released by the World Gold Council (WGC) on Thursday, gold's gains are expected to slow in 2025 as concerns about growth and inflation during Donald Trump's presidency have can affect the ability to increase the price of gold. Gold prices have risen more than 30% year-to-date and are on track for their biggest annual gain since 1979. The rapid rise has been fueled by the Federal Reserve's easing policy, demand safe-haven demand and continued buying activity by global central banks. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has corrected but overall it still has all the conditions for a technical upside with price activity outside the channel and above the EMA21 level. Currently, gold's uptrend is temporarily limited by resistance at $2,693, the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement price point, more than the 0.236% Fibonacci level noticed by previous readers. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index also maintains activity above the 50 level, which should be considered a positive signal for the bullish outlook in the near future. As long as gold remains above the EMA21 and outside the price channel, in the short term it is still likely to increase with notable points listed below. Support: 2,676 – 2,663 – 2,644USD Resistance: 2,693 – 2,700 – 2,730USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2706 - 2704⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2710 →Take Profit 1 2699 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2694 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2659 - 2661⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2655 →Take Profit 1 2666 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2671
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Interest rate expectations and geopolitics still drive GOLDOANDA:XAUUSD corrected after rising sharply as the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates next week increased significantly after the release of US CPI data. CME Group's "FedWatch" tool shows traders see a 98.5% chance the Fed will cut another 25 basis points at its December 17-18 meeting, a significant increase from the 86% chance before CPI data is released. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year in November, both in line with market expectations. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones previously expected this number to increase an average of 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year. Excluding food and energy costs, the US core CPI rose 3.3% year-on-year in November and was up 0.3% month-over-month. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones on average expect core CPI to rise 0.3% month-on-month and 3.3% year-over-year. The market is now focusing on today's (Thursday) US Producer Price Index (PPI) data to shed more light on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut roadmap. Geopolitical news once again boosted OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold corrected after approaching the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level and temporary upside was limited by this technical level. However, in terms of overall structure, the gold price has enough technical conditions to increase after breaking the falling price channel and bringing the main activity above the EMA21 line. Along with that, the Relative Strength Index also rose above 50, which should be considered a positive signal for the bullish outlook of gold prices. On the other hand, gold is likely to open a new bullish cycle when it breaks above the $2,730 level of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement then the target is the Volume profile POC point, more so the $2,761 level and all-time highs. era established earlier. During the day, the technical outlook for gold is bullish with notable points listed below. Support: 2,700 – 2,693 – 2,676USD Resistance: 2,730 – 2,742 – 2,761USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2741 - 2739⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2745 →Take Profit 1 2734 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2729 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2669 - 2671⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2665 →Take Profit 1 2676 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2681
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD just passed $2,700, pay attention to CPI dataWednesday (December 11) on the Asian market, OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery increased again in the short term. Gold price has just surpassed the important milestone of 2,700 USD/ounce, reaching the highest level of the day as of the time this article was completed at 2,703.65 USD/ounce. Attention is turning to the US consumer price index (CPI) today (Wednesday) and the producer price index (PPI) on Thursday, both data will be important in influencing the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates. According to market surveys, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to increase 0.3% in November, with year-on-year increases expected to be 2.7% and 3.3%, respectively. %. Overall and core producer prices in the United States are expected to increase 0.2% month-on-month in November, with year-over-year increases of 2.6% and 3.2%, respectively. CPI data in line with expectations is unlikely to hinder interest rate cuts, but if the data shows inflation progress is slowing, the likelihood of a third consecutive rate cut by the Fed may decrease. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's "FedWatch Tool" shows that the futures market expects an 86% chance that Fed Chairman Powell and his colleagues will cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at their meeting on August 17-18. /12. In addition, gold prices also skyrocketed when the Chinese central bank resumed gold purchasing activities. Meanwhile, the geopolitical situation plays an important role and still has many potential risks after Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was overthrown. Gold is considered a safe investment during times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty and tends to appreciate in low interest rate environments. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has initial conditions for a bullish outlook as it broke out of the falling price channel after a long period of sideways accumulation. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index also rose above the 50 level, which should be considered a positive signal for the future growth prospects as it will move towards the 75-100 area. With that, EMA21 which was the previous resistance has now become the most notable support. Gold prices are pushed above the original price level of 2,700 USD, keeping price activity above the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level will provide conditions for a new bull cycle with the target then around 2,730 USD where the Fibonacci retracement is located. 0.236%, more than the Volume Profile POC level. During the day, gold has all the technical conditions to increase in price and is temporarily limited by the original price of 2,700 USD. The notable points will be listed as follows. Support: 2,693 – 2,676 – 2,663USD Resistance: 2,700 – 2,730USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2721 - 2719⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2725 →Take Profit 1 2714 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2709 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2659 - 2661⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2655 →Take Profit 1 2666 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2671
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD increased in the short term, approaching an important levelOn the Asian market, OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery suddenly increased sharply in the short term. Gold price is once again close to the edge of the price channel, a relatively "dangerous" position for technical bearish expectations. Currently the increase is about 7 USD during the day and gold is trading at 2,667 USD/oz as of the time this article was completed. OANDA:XAUUSD spiked on Monday, mainly due to the People's Bank of China resuming gold purchases after a six-month pause and significantly increasing market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week , further promoting optimism. Heavy central bank buying has been one of the main drivers pushing gold prices to new highs this year, along with monetary policy easing and geopolitical tensions. CME Group's "FedWatch Tool" shows an 87% chance the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week, up from just under 70% last week. Zero-coupon gold performs strongly in low interest rate environments and often attracts investors during times of political and economic uncertainty. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD The current position of the technical price of gold in general has not broken the bearish outlook with the price channel still holding strong, however, gold also has initial conditions for the possibility of price increase. With EMA21 now the closest support having been broken above yesterday's trading session. Meanwhile, the RSI Relative Strength Index is also trying to move above the 50 level. The fact that the RSI can maintain operations above the 50 level is considered a positive signal for the bullish outlook. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices is still quite neutral as it is not completely tilted towards a specific trend, with the price channel still being the current main trend. In case the price channel is broken on gold there is a slight upward trend with the target then around 2,693 USD the price point of the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement, more than the original price of 2,700 USD. Along with the above analysis, notable points will be listed as follows. Support: 2,663 – 2,644 – 2,634USD Resistance: 2,676 – 2,693 – 2,700USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2686 - 2684⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2690 →Take Profit 1 2679 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2674 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2644 - 2646⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2640 →Take Profit 1 2651 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2656
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
WTI recovered slightly, the outlook tilted to the downsideWTI TVC:USOIL increased slightly in the Asian trading session on Monday (December 9), trading around 67.50 USD/barrel. Oil prices fell sharply last Friday, closing near their lowest level, mainly due to expected declines in global demand. However, expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December increased following the release of US nonfarm data. According to CME Group's FedWatch, federal funds rate futures trading points to the possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve. point in December was nearly 90%, which will provide some support for oil prices. Currently, uncertainty about the geopolitical situation increased again at the weekend, making the medium-term recovery of oil prices still not optimistic. In the short term, crude oil traders need to continue to observe whether the pressure brought about by the geopolitical situation on the supply side will support oil prices to continue to recover. Essentially, this week will continue to focus on changes in inventory data and whether demand-side pressures ease. This week, the financial market in general and the crude oil and WTI crude oil trading market in particular will focus on US CPI data. On the daily chart, WTI TVC:USOIL although it recovered slightly in the opening Asian trading session today (December 9), it still has all the technical factors supporting bearish expectations. With the long-term trend being noticed by the price channel followed by the short-term price channel, it has both a long-term and short-term trend of decreasing prices. On the other hand, WTI crude oil is also under main pressure from EMA21 along with the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. In the short term, if WTI crude oil is sold below 65.28USD, there will be a prospect for a new downtrend to open, and the technical point of 68.34USD is the closest resistance currently. The relative strength index also maintained price activity below the 50 level, which should be considered a negative signal for WTI crude oil technically. During the day, the technical outlook for WTI crude oil on the daily chart leans bearish with notable points listed below. Support: 66.44 – 65.28USD Resistance: 68.34 – 69.51USD
TVC:USOILShort
by Xayah_trading
Ending a sideway week, pay attention to CPI dataDuring the Asian trading session on Monday (December 9), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery rose significantly then fell back, with gold prices hitting an intraday high of $2,650.62/ounce on the Asian market. Gold prices have now dropped and are trading at 2,636 USD/ounce. Bloomberg reported that China's central bank increased its gold reserves for the first time in seven months and that the rapid collapse of the Syrian government further undermined stability in the Middle East. These two factors boosted gold prices on Monday but of course it only had a very short-term impact. The People's Bank of China released data on December 7 showing that China's gold reserves at the end of November 2024 were 72.96 million ounces and at the end of October were 72.8 million ounces. As of April this year, China's central bank had increased its gold reserves for 18 consecutive months, helping support rising gold prices. However, the Chinese central bank's purchases (about 5 tons) are relatively small compared to monthly purchases since the beginning of this year. Traders watched developments in Syria over the weekend after President Bashar al-Assad fled as rebels took control of the capital Damascus. The United States struck dozens of Islamic State targets in central Syria on Sunday, as President Joe Biden warned that Assad's fall could lead to a resurgence of Islamic extremism. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Although gold has had a week of stable price fluctuations with mostly sideways accumulation, in general on the daily chart it still moves with the main trend leaning towards the possibility of price decline. With the main trend being noticed by price channel and pressure from EMA21 along with the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level and horizontal resistance of 2,644USD in the short term. On the other hand, the relative strength index (RSI) is moving sideways below the 50 level, which can be considered a negative signal for gold technically. In the near term, if gold takes its price action below the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level, it could fall a bit further to $2,606 – $2,600 in the short term. Additionally, a new bearish cycle is likely to be opened once the $2,600 raw price level is broken below, confirmed by price activity below the 0.786% Fibonacci level followed by a target of around $2,538. As long as gold remains within the price channel, below the EMA21 and below the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement, it remains bearish on the daily chart, and the highlights are listed below. Support: 2,606 – 2,600USD Resistance: 2,644 – 2,663USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2686 - 2684⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2690 →Take Profit 1 2679 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2674 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2589 - 2591⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2585 →Take Profit 1 2596 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2601
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Dec 09 - Dec 13]Last week, international OANDA:XAUUSD almost went sideways in a range from 2,613 - 2,657 USD/oz. The US economy created 227,000 jobs in November, slightly surpassing economists' forecasts. At the same time, wages increased faster than expected. However, the unemployment rate increased again to 4.2%. However, these data show that the US labor market has been tending to recover, creating momentum for the FED to consider delaying interest rate cuts in the context of higher inflation, especially is when Mr. Trump is about to take office as President of the United States. Thus, there may not be much room for gold prices to increase because the FED cuts interest rates. Therefore, gold prices will need additional catalysts from geopolitical factors, central banks increasing gold purchases, etc. Short-term gold prices in general and next week's gold prices in particular will still be in a state of tension between concerns about escalating geopolitical tensions and Mr. Trump's strong tariff measures, causing US Treasury bond yields to increase. , creating strength for the USD and limiting the rise in gold prices. 📌Technically, on the H4 chart, we can see that the moving average ema89 is moving sideways, the gold price continues to accumulate sideways in a narrow range. Accordingly, the resistance level to pay attention to is around the 2720 mark, the support level to pay attention to is around the 2535 mark. Gold prices will create a clear trend when breaking through these two resistance levels. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,600 – 2,606USD Resistance: 2,663 – 2,644USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2721 - 2719⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2725 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2534 - 2536⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2530
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD increases and decreases in opposite directionsThe world gold price listed on Kitco is at 2,633 USD/ounce, up 3 USD/ounce compared to early yesterday morning. Gold futures last traded at 2,654.6 USD/ounce, down 0.5 USD compared to yesterday morning. Gold prices fluctuated slightly on Friday (December 6), marking the second consecutive week of decline. The precious metal has lost about 0.5% of its value this week, after hitting its lowest level since November 26 in early trading. During the day, gold prices barely reacted to the jobs data expected last week. The latest report shows that although job growth remains fairly stable, signs of weakness have begun to appear in the US labor market. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, 227,000 new jobs were created last month, far exceeding experts' expectations. However, the unemployment rate increased to 4.2%, higher than 4.1% last month. Economists predict this ratio will remain unchanged. Although job growth remains strong, economists say the latest data will not stop the US Federal Reserve (Fed) from cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming meeting. However, some analysts note that the Fed's easing cycle could run into trouble if job growth extends into 2025. Gold prices may test the support level of 2,550 USD/ounce and the resistance level of 2,700 USD/ounce in December 2024. The trend in the next few weeks is that gold prices may decrease due to profit-taking activities. Regarding the medium-term trend, the support level of gold prices remains firm, but it is unlikely that there will be a strong breakthrough in the upward direction in the near future. Gold prices benefit from lower yields, continued rising geopolitical risks and uncertainty surrounding future policy implementation and global impact under the Trump administration.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD dropped and recovered quickly, new news from Korea, NFPOn the Asian market on Friday (December 6), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery suddenly increased sharply in the short term. Gold prices have increased sharply from an intraday low of nearly 2,613 USD/ounce and are currently trading around 2,643 USD/ounce, close to the technical level of 2,644 USD. There was news that South Korea might impose martial law for a second time, which quickly increased market risk aversion and stimulated a sharp increase in gold prices. According to the latest report from Yonhap News Agency on Friday, South Korea's opposition parties may seek to hold an impeachment vote on President Yun Xiyue at 5 p.m. local time on Saturday. South Korean media JTBC reported on Friday that the Military Human Rights Center held an emergency press conference at its office in Mapo district, Seoul in the morning, following the instructions of superiors, commanders The squadron commander's superiors could convene an emergency press conference before the 8th. The Military Human Rights Center emphasized that this was Yoon Seok-yue's Sign that martial law would be reintroduced. South Korean President Yoon Seok-yue suddenly declared martial law on the evening of December 3, with the reason of eliminating pro-North Korean forces and protecting constitutional order. The South Korean National Assembly voted late at night to pass a resolution to "remove martial law", and Yoon Seok-yue finally announced that he would "remove martial law". However, there are rumors that senior South Korean military officials have been asked to be on standby until December 8. This is something the market is eyeing as a sign that Yin Xiyue will declare martial law again. In a headline on Friday, Yonhap news agency quoted the South Korean opposition party as saying lawmakers were on standby after receiving multiple reports of martial law being declared again. Gold is considered a leading haven asset when the market receives risky impacts from geopolitical developments (especially in places closely related to the US). On this trading day, investors will receive the release of the US non-farm payrolls report, which is expected to cause major fluctuations in the gold market. US nonfarm payrolls jobs are expected to increase by 195,000 in November. Gold could rebound stronger on more disappointing jobs data, and come under some pressure ahead of the tabular data Non-farm wages are optimistic. Today (Friday), the United States will release the November nonfarm payrolls report. Surveys expected 200,000 new jobs were added, but only 12,000 jobs were added in October, the lowest increase since December 2020. The US unemployment rate is expected to increase slightly to 4.2% in November, from 4.1% in October. Additionally, average hourly wages in the US are expected to increase 0.3%. month-over-month in November. Annual wage growth will likely slow from 4% to 3.9%. A report released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday showed that the number of job vacancies in the United States increased again in October and the number of layoffs decreased, indicating market demand for workers are stable. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after gold fell but fell short of its weekly target of $2,606 – $2,600 sent to readers in the weekly edition, it rose rapidly to retest the 2,644 technical level. USD. Temporarily, gold's recovery does not give it enough conditions to increase in price as the Relative Strength Index is still operating below 50. Along with that, the EMA21 is the closest resistance currently and as long as gold has not broken the price channel, it still has the main trend during this time which is down. Once again gold falls below the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level which will be the best condition to head towards the weekly target area at 2,606 – 2,600USD. Meanwhile, expectations of a new bearish cycle will be opened once gold falls below the original price of 2,600 USD with the target then around 2,591 USD in the short term, more than 2,538 USD. During the day, the technical outlook for gold remains bearish with notable points listed as follows. Support: 2,634 – 2,606 – 2,600USD Resistance: 2,644 – 2,657 – 2,663USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2686 - 2684⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2690 →Take Profit 1 2679 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2674 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2584 - 2586⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2580 →Take Profit 1 2591 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2596
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
Prolonged accumulation, GOLD may need impact from NFP dataOn the Asian market on Thursday (December 5), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery maintained a moderate decrease during the day, gold prices are currently down to about 2,645 USD/ounce as of the time this article was completed. In terms of economic data on Wednesday, data from the ADP Research Institute and the Stanford Digital Economy Lab showed that the number of private sector jobs in the United States increased by 146,000 in November, less than expected. This number is expected to be 163,000. The ADP report shows mixed job growth across industries. The education, health care and construction sectors led the gains, while manufacturing employment had its biggest decline in more than a year. Hiring is also lower in the financial services and entertainment industries, according to data from the ADP Research Institute. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell participated in an exclusive interview with the "DealBook Summit" hosted by the New York Times on Wednesday. On monetary policy, he said at the meeting that policymakers may remain cautious about cutting interest rates further. Regarding the US economy, Powell said the current situation is "very good" with falling inflation and relatively low unemployment. Powell noted that the US economy was stronger than expected in September, allowing the Fed to be more cautious in cutting interest rates. Powell said that although inflation has not yet fully returned to the Fed's 2% target, there is no reason the economy cannot continue to grow. New news of a ceasefire in the Middle East has affected the safe-haven asset OANDA:XAUUSD Israel has made a new proposal to Hamas regarding a ceasefire in Gaza, including a request to release some of the remaining 100 people detained by Hamas, Axios News reported this morning (Thursday). Israeli officials say Israel hopes the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, a ceasefire in Lebanon and pressure from US President-elect Donald Trump will create an opportunity to resume negotiations that have been deadlocked for three months. recently. According to the report, Israeli officials revealed that the updated agreement framework mentioned above was reached after a meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and several senior ministers and heads of security agencies on the 1st of this month. . The new plan is similar to the principles discussed previously, but has some adjustments and is subject to adjustment and negotiation. Israeli officials say Hamas has shown more flexibility and begun implementing parts of the agreement. There are still 100 hostages being held in Gaza, including 7 Americans. The Israel Defense Forces believe that between 40 and 50 hostages are still alive. Gold is a risk-on haven asset, so if the market has less risk of conflict or geopolitical tensions it will become less attractive. Next event The next big event will be the November US nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. Surveys show US nonfarm payroll employment is expected to increase by 214,000 in November, up from 12,000 in October. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, the accumulation phase of gold prices continues to last with increasingly narrower amplitudes without any sudden waves to create a short-term trend. With the current position, it is difficult to distinguish which possibility gold is leaning more towards compared to yesterday's trading day. With price activity moving around the EMA21 and Fibonacci retracement levels of 0.618% and the technical point of 2,644USD. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index is also at 50, not going above or below this level. Taken together with the current position, gold is still neutral in the medium and short term. Meanwhile, a short-term bearish cycle has the opportunity to open if gold is sold below the 0.618% Fibonacci level then the target level is about 2,606 USD in the short term, more than 2,600 USD. During the day, gold is currently in a neutral position, but in the long term, the falling price channel is still the main trend and notable points will be listed as follows. Support: 2,634 – 2,606 – 2,600USD Resistance: 2,663USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2681 - 2679⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2685 →Take Profit 1 2674 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2669 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2599 - 2601⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2595 →Take Profit 1 2606 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2611
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading