Get started

Xayahtrading

GOLD falls on USD and trade talks, big data weekSpot OANDA:XAUUSD ended its rally this week on Friday (July 25) and closed down nearly 1%, mainly affected by the recovery of the US Dollar TVC:DXY and progress in trade negotiations that weakened safe-haven demand. DXY recovered 0.27% on Friday to close at 97.642, ending a two-week low, making gold less attractive than its direct correlation. Earlier, news of a US-Japan trade deal and a breakthrough in US-EU talks weakened the market's demand for safe-haven assets. For the content of the US-Japan trade deal, readers can review it in the daily publications during the past trading week. Data and Fed Expectations The latest US jobless claims fell to a three-month low, suggesting the job market remains solid. This gives the Federal Reserve reason to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50%, despite President Trump once again pressuring Powell to cut rates. However, in the short term, the fundamental direction of gold may need to wait for the Federal Reserve to announce more policy signals at its meeting next week. Speculative Longs Hit High Near April Peak Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that as of the week of July 22, the speculative net long position in COMEX gold rose by 27,211 lots to 170,868 lots, the highest level since April. This shows that as gold prices fall again, buyers are still actively deploying, waiting for more guidance from policy and data. Last Week Review and This Week’s Fundamental Outlook Last week, gold prices initially rose and then fell. Due to risk aversion and volatility in the US dollar, gold prices surpassed the $3,400/ounce mark at the start of the week, but as trade optimism increased and profit-taking emerged, gold prices fell back, trying to stay above $3,300/ounce. Investors will face several major events this week: Federal Reserve policy meeting (Wednesday): Markets expect interest rates to remain unchanged, but Powell’s speech could influence market expectations for a rate cut this year. Macro data will be released in batches: including ADP employment data on Wednesday, PCE price index on Thursday and non-farm payrolls report on Friday. These data will determine the next move of gold. Global central bank trends: The Bank of Canada and the Bank of Japan also hold policy meetings next week. Investors will be watching to see if their policy signals cause volatility in the US dollar and gold prices. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is in a rather important position after 3 consecutive corrective declines. However, the bearish momentum still keeps gold above the base price, which is an important psychological point for the bullish expectation of 3,300 USD. In terms of position and indicators, gold has not completely lost the ability for a bullish outlook. Specifically, gold is still in a short-term rising channel and supported by the EMA21. On the other hand, it is still supported by the horizontal support level of 3,310 USD, followed by the psychological level of 3,300 USD and the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement. Gold will only qualify for a bearish cycle if it sells below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level, then the target will be around 3,246 USD in the short term, more than the 0.50% Fibonacci level. RSI is sloping down, but has not yet crossed the 50 level, and in the current case, the 50 level acts as a momentum support for the RSI. It shows that there is still room for an increase in price, and if RSI sloping up from 50, it will provide a bullish signal with relatively wide room. If gold rises above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level (3,371 USD), it will be eligible for a new bullish cycle with a target of around 3,400 USD in the short term, more than 3,430 – 3,450 USD then the all-time high. In the coming time, in terms of position and indicators, gold still has a technical outlook leaning more towards the upside and the notable points will be listed as follows. Support: 3,310 – 3,300 – 3,292 USD Resistance: 3,350 – 3,371 – 3,400 – 3,430 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3371 - 3369⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3375 →Take Profit 1 3363 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3357 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3303 - 3305⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3299 →Take Profit 1 3311 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3317
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
3
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Jul 28 - Aug 01]This week, OANDA:XAUUSD prices had a positive start, rising sharply from 3,345 USD/oz to 3,439 USD/oz because investors were concerned about the risk of financial market instability when US President Donald Trump continuously pressured the FED Chairman to reduce interest rates, and there were even rumors of the Fed chairman resigning. However, the upward momentum in gold prices was not maintained when the US continuously reached trade agreements with partners such as Japan, Indonesia, Philippines..., cooling down the trade war. This caused gold prices to drop sharply for three consecutive trading sessions, at one point the gold price dropped to 3,325 USD/oz and closed at 3,336 USD/oz. Trade war worries are starting to subside. Therefore, we continue to witness a shift of investment capital flows from gold to risky assets such as stocks.. Notably, this week is the fourth time gold prices broke the $3,400 threshold but did not stay above this level. Next week, in addition to the FED meeting, the market will also receive information about US non-agricultural employment (NFP) data. If this index falls stronger than expected, it will further strengthen expectations that the FED will continue to keep interest rates at the current level in upcoming meetings, causing gold prices to drop even more sharply next week. 📌In terms of technical analysis, the three crows pattern (3 long red candles) appeared on the D1 chart, showing that sellers were still in control throughout the past 3 trading sessions without much buying power. This technical pattern often suggests that gold prices may be shifting from their recent upward trajectory into a more prolonged period of decline. This technical signal also quite coincides with the context of many fundamental factors, such as geopolitical conflicts, trade wars, low physical gold demand in the summer... no longer strongly supporting gold prices as before. However, according to many experts, if the gold price drops sharply, it will be a good opportunity to buy, because the gold price is forecast to still increase strongly in the long term. On the H4 chart, gold price may continue to adjust down below the 3,285 USD/oz mark, before recovering again. Meanwhile, the 3,450 USD/oz area is still a strong resistance level for gold prices next week. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 3,310 – 3,300 – 3,292USD Resistance: 3,350 – 3,371 – 3,400 – 3,430USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3383 - 3381⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3387 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3316 - 3318⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3312
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
GOLD trades in narrow range after 4 sessions of sharp declineOn Tuesday (July 29), in the Asian market, the spot OANDA:XAUUSD traded in a narrow range after yesterday's sharp decline, and the current gold price is around 3,315 USD/ounce. The OANDA:XAUUSD fell to its lowest level in nearly 3 weeks on Monday, mainly due to the trade agreement reached between the United States and the European Union over the weekend, which boosted the Dollar and risk sentiment. The previous report released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the number of US JOLTS jobs unexpectedly increased in May, reaching the highest level since November last year. The number of JOLTS job vacancies in the US in May was 7.769 million, far exceeding the forecast of all economists surveyed. Looking back at the data in April, the number of JOLTS job vacancies also showed an unexpected increase. The JOLTS jobs report is a closely watched labor market data by the Federal Reserve. In addition, the Conference Board of America's Consumer Confidence Index for July is scheduled to be released on the same day and is expected to be 95.8, compared to the previous value of 93.0. The fundamental pressure that gold is under OANDA:XAUUSD came under pressure yesterday and fell to a near three-week low, mainly due to the trade deal between the United States and the European Union (EU) over the weekend, which boosted the Dollar and risk sentiment. Moreover, US President Trump announced “global tariffs” of 15% to 20% on most countries, a change from his previous statement last week. The deal reached by U.S. President Donald Trump and the European Union late last week will impose a 15% tariff on EU goods, half the rate Trump had threatened, easing fears of a wider trade war. The U.S. and Japan also reached a deal last week, and U.S. and Chinese officials resumed talks in Stockholm, Sweden, this week with the goal of extending the tariff deadline by 90 days. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has been on a four-day losing streak, a decline that threatens bullish expectations as its current position gradually deprives it of any room for further upside. Specifically, gold has recovered from the psychological level of $3,300 but the actual recovery is not significant, while it is under pressure from the EMA21 which is currently the closest resistance. On the other hand, gold has fallen below both the long-term and short-term trend channels. If it continues to sell below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level, this will confirm a break below the psychological level of $3,300, then the downside target will be around $3,246 in the short term, rather than $3,228. RSI is pointing down, below 50 and still far from the 20-0 area, also showing that in terms of momentum, gold is also under pressure and there is still a lot of room for decline ahead. For gold to be eligible for an increase, it needs to at least bring price activity back above the EMA21, back inside the price channels. On the current daily chart, the technical conditions are more inclined towards the possibility of a decrease. Notable positions will be listed as follows. Support: 3,310 - 3,300 - 3,292 USD Resistance: 3,340 - 3,350 - 3,371 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3355 - 3353⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3359 →Take Profit 1 3347 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3341 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3285 - 3287⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3281 →Take Profit 1 3293 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3299
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
GOLD continues to correct down, good news from trade situationOANDA:XAUUSD has fallen sharply again, currently trading around $3,360/oz, reflecting the easing of global trade tensions, affecting demand for safe-haven assets. The US Dollar and US Treasury yields have also increased, affecting gold prices. The US Dollar Index ( TVC:DXY ), which tracks the greenback against six other currencies, rose to 97.56. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note US10Y rose to 4.386%. The US real yield, calculated by subtracting inflation expectations from nominal interest rates, rose nearly 3.5 basis points to 2.046%. Markets are increasingly optimistic about such deals after the United States and Japan reached a trade deal, and the European Union could be next. In addition, rising stock markets and low volatility have kept gold's gains in check. The United States and the European Union are moving toward a potential trade deal that would include a 15% tariff on EU goods and zero tariffs on some items. The European Commission said Thursday that a negotiated trade solution with the United States is within reach. “Our focus is on reaching a negotiated outcome with the United States,” a European Commission spokesperson told reporters about the EU-U.S. tariff talks. “We believe that such an outcome is achievable.” The European Commission has repeatedly said that its current priority is to reach a deal with the United States to avoid the 30% tariffs that U.S. President Trump has proposed to impose on EU products starting August 1. On the economic data front, initial jobless claims in the United States unexpectedly fell last week, suggesting the job market remains solid. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Thursday that initial jobless claims fell to 217,000 in the week ended July 19, below expectations of 227,000 and down from 221,000 the previous week. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold is heading for its third consecutive day of decline since hitting the bullish target level sent to readers in the weekly edition on Sunday at $3,430. Despite the sharp decline, gold still has enough technical conditions for an uptrend given its current position and structure. Specifically, gold is still above the EMA21, which is considered the nearest support at the moment. Along with that, the uptrend price channel is the short-term trend. However, for gold to qualify for a short-term bullish cycle, it needs to be confirmed by price action above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, then the target is $3,400 in the short term, more than $3,430. On the other hand, RSI is still holding above 50, and 50 in this case acts as momentum support. Therefore, gold still has room to rise. In case gold is sold below EMA21, it may suffer a further decline with the next target around $3,310 in the short term, more than $3,300 and the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level. And if gold loses the support at the 0.382% Fibonacci level, it will qualify for a bearish cycle. Intraday, the current position of gold price is still tilted towards the upside, and the notable price points will be listed as follows. Support: $3,350 – $3,310 – $3,300 Resistance: $3,371 – $3,400 – $3,430 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3406 - 3404⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3410 →Take Profit 1 3398 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3392 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3329 - 3331⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3326 →Take Profit 1 3337 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3343
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
From 3,430 USD GOLD falls below 3,400 USD on optimistic newsOANDA:XAUUSD has suffered a sharp sell-off after rising sharply earlier in the week. Media reports said the United States and the European Union were getting closer to reaching a tariff deal, and the news weighed on safe-haven demand. OANDA:XAUUSD fell below $3,400 an ounce on Wednesday, down more than 1.2%, following news that the United States and the European Union were close to signing a deal similar to the one Washington and Tokyo signed on Tuesday. It is now trading below that key base point. The European Union and the United States are moving toward a trade deal that could see more EU goods hit with a 15 percent U.S. import tariff, two diplomats said. Earlier, U.S. President Donald Trump reached a trade deal with Japan that would cut auto tariffs to 15 percent. Optimism about an imminent U.S.-EU trade deal overshadowed a decline in the U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.05 percent on the day to 97.160. U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.396%. U.S. real yields, calculated by subtracting inflation expectations from nominal yields, rose nearly 4 basis points to 1.994%. Gold tends to gain in value during times of uncertainty and low-interest-rate environments because gold itself does not generate interest, and in low-interest-rate environments, the opportunity cost of holding gold is relatively low. U.S., EU near trade deal The Financial Times reported on Wednesday that the European Union and the United States are close to reaching a trade deal that would impose a 15% tariff on imports from Europe, similar to the one reached between US President Donald Trump and Japan this week. The Financial Times reported that Brussels is likely to agree to so-called “reciprocal tariffs” to avoid tariffs that Trump has threatened to impose on EU goods of up to 30% from August 1. “The agreement reached with Japan is clearly extortionate in terms. Most member states are swallowing their anger and are likely to accept the deal,” an EU diplomat said. The two sides will exempt some products, including aircraft, spirits and medical equipment, from tariffs. The agreement between the US and Japan has also left Brussels reluctant to accept higher reciprocal tariffs to avoid a damaging trade war, according to the Financial Times. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after gold reached its target at $3,430, it failed to break above this important resistance level and fell slightly. The decline brought gold back to test the support confluence area, which is the location of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement with the lower edge of the price channel. And with the current position, gold still technically has enough conditions for a possible increase in price. Specifically, gold is still in/above the supports from the short-term price channel, the long-term rising price channel and the support from the EMA21, as long as gold is still trading above the EMA21, it still has a bullish outlook in the short term. On the other hand, the short-term target is still at 3,430 USD, while once the 3,430 USD level is broken, it will provide the possibility of further upside with the next target at around 3,450 USD in the short term, more than the all-time high. RSI remains above 50, far from the 80 – 100 area (overbought area). Showing that there is still a lot of room for upside ahead. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices continues to favor upside and notable positions will be listed as follows. Support: 3,371 – 3,350 USD Resistance: 3,400 – 3,430 – 3,450 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3421 - 3419⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3425 →Take Profit 1 3413 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3407 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3354 - 3356⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3350 →Take Profit 1 3362 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3368
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD tests $3,310 then recovers, continues sidewaysInternational OANDA:XAUUSD fell to the support level of 3,310 USD, then recovered and continued to stabilize sideways due to the stronger US Dollar and market tensions eased after US President Trump said it was "extremely unlikely" to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. As of the time of writing, spot OANDA:XAUUSD was trading at 3,339 USD/oz. Reuters reported on Wednesday that Trump is still open to the possibility of firing Powell. However, Trump said on Wednesday that he has no intention of firing Powell at this time, but did not completely rule out the possibility and reiterated his criticism of the Fed chairman for not lowering interest rates. Data showed US producer prices unexpectedly held steady in June, as the impact of higher import tariffs on goods was offset by weakness in the services sector. The unchanged US PPI in June showed wholesale prices were stabilising, suggesting the economic impact of tariffs may be smaller than initially feared. The lower-than-expected core CPI and core PPI data did not provide the boost that was expected, which could mean that the market is focusing on other aspects. More broadly, as the Fed gradually eases policy, real yields could continue to fall, and gold will maintain its upward trend. However, if the market continues to reprice expectations for a hawkish rate cut, this could trigger a short-term correction. SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund (ETF), said its holdings rose 0.33% to 950.79 tonnes on Wednesday from 947.64 tonnes in the previous session. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold rebounded after falling and tested the support level noted by readers in yesterday's edition at 3,310 USD. The recovery brought gold prices back to work around the EMA21, continuing the sideways accumulation trend. Structurally there is no change, as for gold to qualify for an upside move it needs to break resistance at the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level then the short term target is the raw price point of $3,400. Meanwhile for gold to complete its bearish cycle it needs to sell below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level then the short term target would be around $3,246, more than the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level. The relative strength index (RSI) is also unchanged with the RSI activity around 50, indicating a hesitant market sentiment without leaning towards any particular trend. Intraday, the technical outlook for gold prices continues to be a sideways accumulation trend, and the notable positions will be listed as follows. Support: 3,310 – 3,300 – 3,292 USD Resistance: 3,350 – 3,371 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3386 - 3384⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3390 →Take Profit 1 3378 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3372 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3276 - 3278⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3272 →Take Profit 1 3284 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3290
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD's narrowing range, tariffs, Trump's political dramaOANDA:XAUUSD is still trading in a narrowing range, affected by the tariff game and the political drama that Trump is building. Currently, the price of gold is trading around 3,339 USD/oz, equivalent to a small decrease of about 7 dollars on the day. Tariff Game On July 16, US President Donald Trump announced that he would send letters to more than 150 countries, with tariffs expected to be 10% or 15%, to promote trade. He said these countries are not major US partners and will be treated equally, but left open the possibility of negotiating exemptions. The tariffs are similar to those proposed in April but were postponed due to concerns about market volatility. The resumption of the tariffs continues to destabilize financial markets and surprised partners such as the European Union, as they hoped to reach an early agreement with the US. Political Play Also on July 16, global financial markets were shaken by rumors that President Trump intended to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Many major news agencies such as the New York Times, Bloomberg and Reuters reported that Trump had prepared a letter of dismissal and consulted with Republican lawmakers, receiving positive feedback. Removing Powell before his term was believed to undermine confidence in the US financial system and the safe haven status of the USD. Trump later denied the plan, saying it was unlikely to happen unless there was serious wrongdoing. Markets reacted strongly: the USD fell and then recovered after Trump's statement, while gold lost most of its previous gains by the end of the session. The gold market in particular, and the financial economy in general, are being affected by the activities of Trump, the creator of the global trade war, and the plays of Trump and the FED leading the market. Therefore, the basic formula in the current market context is best to follow Trump, and make sure not to miss any of Trump's status lines. Technical outlook analysis of OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, the technical structure has not changed with the trend not yet clear and the price action clinging to the EMA21. The technical conditions do not favor an uptrend or a downtrend, typically the RSI moves around the 50 level, indicating a hesitant market sentiment. On the upside, gold needs to achieve the condition of breaking above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level of the price point of 3,371 USD then the target level will be around 3,400 USD in the short term, more than 3,430 USD. Meanwhile, on the downside, gold needs to break below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement, which would confirm a loss of the $3,300 level, then target around $3,246 in the short term, more than the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement. Intraday, the sideways trend of gold price accumulation will be noticed by the following technical positions. Support: $3,310 – $3,300 – $3,292 Resistance: $3,350 – $3,371 – $3,400 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3381 - 3379⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3385 →Take Profit 1 3373 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3387 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3309 - 3311⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3305 →Take Profit 1 3317 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3323
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
4
GOLD in narrow range, after sharp drop on US CPI dataOANDA:XAUUSD fell sharply on Tuesday (July 15) as the US Dollar TVC:DXY gained significantly after the US CPI report was released. As of now (July 16), gold is trading at 3,326 USD/oz, equivalent to an increase of only 2 USD in the day. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June was in line with expectations but higher than the previous value. The surge in the Dollar after the US released the June CPI is the main reason for the pressure on gold prices so far. • Data released by the US on Tuesday showed that the US CPI increased by 2.7% compared to the same period last year in June, in line with expectations, but higher than the 2.4% in May. • The US CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month in June, in line with market expectations but up from a 0.1% increase, the largest increase since January this year. • In addition, the US core CPI rose 2.9% year-on-year in June, up from 2.8% in May, while the core CPI in June rose 0.2% month-on-month. The market generally believes that US President Trump's tariff policies have increased price pressures, prompting the Federal Reserve to wait and see what further action to take. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell previously said he expected prices to rise in the summer. The market is still expecting the first rate cut in September. Investors are looking ahead to Wednesday's U.S. producer price index data for more information on the Federal Reserve's move. Since gold does not yield interest, it typically performs well in low-interest-rate environments, whereas high-interest-rate environments or expectations of future rate hikes put pressure on gold prices. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is trading in a fairly narrow range after 2 sessions of downward adjustment, but the specific trend is still unclear, as sent to readers throughout last week, the technical conditions mainly show a sideways accumulation movement. After testing the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, gold was unable to overcome this resistance, and the decline from this position brought the gold price close to the support of 3,310 USD and then the area of the original price point of 3,300 USD with the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement. With the technical conditions not giving a specific trend as they are now, for gold to be able to have a new bullish cycle it needs to move the price action above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, then the target would be around $3,400 in the short term, more than $3,430. On the other hand, if gold falls below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level again, it could be a good signal for an expectation of a bullish cycle, then the target would be around $3,246 in the short term, more than the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level. The relative strength index is hovering around 50, indicating that the market is hesitant in terms of momentum and is not leaning towards a specific trend. During the day, with the current sideways accumulation, gold will be noticed by the following technical levels. Support: 3,310 – 3,300 – 3,292 USD Resistance: 3,240 – 3,250 – 3,371 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3383 - 3381⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3387 →Take Profit 1 3375 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3369 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3304 - 3306⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3300 →Take Profit 1 3312 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3318
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD again targets $3,371, new bullish cycle conditionToday (Tuesday, July 15), in the Asian market, the spot OANDA:XAUUSD maintained a slight recovery trend, currently at around 3,360 USD/ounce. The spot OANDA:XAUUSD rose to a 3-week high on Monday, but quickly fell back and finally closed lower. Trump's open attitude towards trade negotiations has improved the market's risk-on sentiment and negatively impacted gold, a safe-haven asset. But gold still has a lot of potential risks for price increases, and personally, the fundamental trend for gold has not changed. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report today (Tuesday). According to a Reuters survey, economists expect the US CPI to increase year-on-year in June to 2.7% from 2.4% the previous month, while the core CPI is expected to increase year-on-year to 3% from 2.8%. The survey also showed that the US CPI is expected to increase 0.3% month-on-month in June, and the core CPI is also expected to increase 0.3% month-on-month. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's "FedWatch Tool", the market believes that the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in July and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in September is about 30%. If the US core CPI rises by 0.4% or more in June, this could prompt market participants to reassess the possibility of a rate cut in September. In this case, the US Dollar could hold steady and push gold prices lower. On the other hand, if the data is lower than expected, gold will become more attractive while a weaker Dollar will be positive for gold prices. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD After gold reached the resistance target of attention to readers in the weekly publication at 3,371 USD, which is the location of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement, it fell slightly but is now recovering positively. Currently, gold is trading in the range of 3,360 USD, the price action above the lower edge of the long-term rising price channel with support from the EMA21, gold is now likely to continue to retest the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. If gold breaks above $3,371 it will be eligible for a new bullish cycle, with the target then being around $3,400 in the short term, more so than $3,430. On the other hand, the RSI is pointing up, maintaining activity above 50, and this should be considered a positive signal in terms of momentum. It shows that there is still a lot of room for growth ahead. However, as of now, gold is still neutral in terms of trend, with conditions gradually tilting towards the possibility of price increase. Along with that, the notable positions will be listed as follows. Support: $3,350 – $3,340 – $3,310 Resistance: $3,371 – $3,400 – $3,430 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3390 - 3388⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3394 →Take Profit 1 3382 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3376 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3304 - 3306⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3300 →Take Profit 1 3312 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3318
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
Back above $3,300, GOLD may remain neutral, tax focusOANDA:XAUUSD reclaimed the psychologically important level of $3,300/ounce last week, but while gold is still receiving some support as a safe haven amid economic and geopolitical risks, its upside momentum may be limited as the market shifts its attention to other commodities. Gold prices ended last week on a generally bullish note, rising back above $3,300 an ounce after US President Trump unexpectedly announced a series of new trade policies. Spot gold prices rose about 0.5% last week on Friday. Although the market initially doubted Trump’s self-imposed July 9 deadline, the overall market reaction remained steady and the renewed risk appetite helped the S&P 500 hit a new record high, somewhat undermining gold’s safe-haven appeal. The July deadline has been pushed back to August 1, but the global trade conflict is far from over. Gold has regained support after initial pressure after Trump announced a new trade policy on copper imports, along with a series of news stories about the relationship between Trump and the FED sent to readers throughout the past week. A sharp rise in copper prices will also add to inflationary pressures, exacerbate economic uncertainty and raise concerns about recession and stagflation. In this context, gold is expected to continue to receive support from potential risks. In addition to fierce competition in the commodity market, gold may remain fundamentally neutral in the short term, as economic data will support the Fed's neutral monetary policy. The key market focus next week will be the June Consumer Price Index (CPI). The Fed has made it clear that it is in no rush to raise interest rates while inflation risks remain high. However, traders still need to be cautious and closely monitor the situation surrounding the tariff war initiated by Trump, which will directly affect the price of gold. In case of negative news, the gold price will receive support and vice versa if positive news appears in the market. Over the weekend, US President Trump once again used the tariff tactic, announcing that he would impose a 30% tax on imports from the EU and Mexico, causing a strong reaction from the international community. This move not only casts a shadow over the relationship between Europe and the United States, as well as between the United States and Mexico, but also adds further uncertainty to the global trade model. EU politicians, businesses and academics were quick to respond, calling for unity to protect their interests, while Mexico stressed the need to maintain national sovereignty and pledged to respond calmly. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has a 3-day rally, and the upside momentum has reached the important target resistance at the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. Gold's upside momentum is also limited by this Fibonacci retracement level, specifically it has slightly dropped to $3,355/oz. But overall, gold is still not in a position to form a specific trend, and the indicators and positions are mainly showing the possibility of continuing to accumulate sideways. For gold to have the conditions for a new bullish cycle, it needs to bring price activity above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, then the target will be around $3,400 in the short term, more than $3,430. Meanwhile, a pullback, which sees gold sell below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement, would open the door to a bearish cycle, with a target of around $3,246 in the short term, rather than the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement. RSI hovering around 50 also suggests a hesitant market sentiment, so the short-term bias for gold is neutral. Along with that, notable positions will also be listed as follows. Support: $3,350 – $3,310 – $3,300 Resistance: $3,371 – $3,400 – $3,430 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3406 - 3404⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3410 →Take Profit 1 3398 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3392 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3340 - 3342⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3336 →Take Profit 1 3348 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3354
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
3
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Jul 14 - Jul 18]This week, OANDA:XAUUSD opened at $3,342/oz, dropped to $3,282/oz, but then rebounded sharply to close at $3,355/oz. The recovery was mainly driven by former President Trump's announcement of new tariffs ranging from 20% to 50% on imports from 22 countries, effective August 1st. Particularly, a 35% tariff on Canadian goods — a key U.S. trading partner — raised concerns about global trade stability and supply chains. Trump also proposed 15–20% tariffs on most other trading partners, reigniting fears of global trade disruptions. At the same time, ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas continued to weigh on sentiment, despite U.S. diplomatic efforts showing little progress. However, analysts note that gold still lacks strong momentum for a breakout. Trump's tariff threats may be more about negotiation leverage than triggering a full-blown trade war. Meanwhile, with the labor market recovering and inflation rising, the Fed is expected to maintain its neutral monetary policy, limiting short-term gold price movements. Although geopolitical tensions remain (e.g., Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Hamas), the ceasefire between Israel and Iran has reduced gold’s geopolitical risk premium. Looking ahead, key U.S. economic data next week — including CPI, PPI, and retail sales — will be closely watched. A strong June core CPI (0.4% or higher) could reduce the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September, strengthening the USD and pushing gold lower. Conversely, weaker inflation data could boost expectations of a rate cut, supporting gold prices. 📌In terms of technical analysis, gold prices next week may continue to adjust and accumulate. Accordingly, if they surpass the 3,370 USD/oz mark, gold prices next week will challenge the 3,400-3,450 USD/oz range. On the contrary, gold prices next week will adjust down to 3,285 USD/oz, or even 3,245 USD/oz. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 3,350 – 3,310 – 3,300USD Resistance: 3,371 – 3,400 – 3,430USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3435 - 3433⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3439 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3329 - 3331⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3326
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD continues to recover, tariff war changes unpredictablyInternational OANDA:XAUUSD continued to rise, boosted by a slight decline in the US Dollar and US Treasury yields. At the same time, investors are closely monitoring the developments in trade negotiations as US President Trump expands the tariff war. As of the time of writing, spot OANDA:XAUUSD increased by 0.3% to 3,333 USD/oz. The general weakness of the US Dollar, the decline in US Treasury yields and renewed concerns about the escalation of the trade war have helped stabilize gold prices. On Thursday evening (July 10) local time, US President Donald Trump once again increased pressure on trading partners. He announced that he would impose a 35% tariff on imported goods from Canada, and the USD/CAD exchange rate rose sharply in the short term. Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social that a 35% tariff would be imposed on imported goods from Canada, effective from August 1, 2025. It is still unclear whether the current exemptions for goods traded under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will be extended or terminated. Due to the impact of escalating trade tensions, spot gold prices also rose by more than 10 dollars in the short term at the beginning of the Asian trading session on Friday, and the current high price of gold has reached around 3,336 USD/ounce. In an interview with NBC News on Thursday, Trump said he was also considering imposing a flat tariff of 15% to 20% on most of his trading partners, adding that the exact tariff rate was being worked out. The current flat tariff rate is 10%. Trump sent letters to trading partners this week, announcing that the new tariffs would take effect on August 1 if they could not negotiate more favorable terms. He is expected to send letters to European Union member states soon. Trump sent the first batch of tariff letters to 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea, on July 7, with tariffs ranging from 25% to 40%. He also said he would send more similar letters this week. Minutes from the Fed's June 17-18 meeting showed that only a "few" Fed officials thought a rate cut was possible as early as this month, while most preferred to hold off until later in the year due to inflation concerns caused by Trump's tariffs. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to leave interest rates unchanged at its June meeting. The next policy meeting is scheduled for July 29-30. Markets will focus on progress in Trump's tariff negotiations, key US economic data and speeches by Federal Reserve officials later in the day for fresh trading direction for gold prices. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has had 2 sessions of recovery from the area around the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement, but the temporary upside momentum is still limited and does not qualify for a new bullish cycle. In the short term, the EMA21 with the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement will act as the nearest resistance, if gold takes the price action to break above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level it will qualify for a new bullish cycle with the target then being around $3,400 in the short term, more so than $3,430. On the other hand, with the current neutral trend, once gold is sold below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level again, it will have conditions to decline, and the target then is around 3,246 USD in the short term, more than the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level. The RSI index is hovering around 50, also showing that the market sentiment is still hesitant to have a specific direction. During the day, the sideways trend of gold prices will be noticed by the following positions. Support: 3,300 - 3,292 USD Resistance: 3,340 - 3,350 - 3,371 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3388 - 3386⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3392 →Take Profit 1 3380 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3372 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3296 - 3298⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3292 →Take Profit 1 3304 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3310
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD is in bearish conditions, pressured by aggressive tariffsOn Wednesday (July 9) in the Asian market, the spot OANDA:XAUUSD suddenly fell sharply in the short term, and the gold price just fell below 3,290 USD / ounce. Although US President Trump announced that the first tariff letters had been sent to some US trading partners, the gold price fell below 3,290 USD / ounce due to the weakening demand for safe-haven gold. Trump postponed the tariff deadline to August 1, easing trade tensions. The recovery in the dollar TVC:DXY and rising US Treasury yields also weighed on gold, sending prices sharply lower after hitting a high of $3,345 an ounce. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note TVC:US10Y rose to its highest in more than two weeks, making gold, which does not pay interest, less attractive as an investment. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose to 4.415%. The US real yield also rose 4 basis points to 2.073%. TVC:DXY , which tracks the greenback's performance against a basket of currencies, rose 0.20% to 97.70. The rise in the Dollar Index means that gold priced in dollars has become less attractive because they are inversely correlated. Japan and South Korea said on Tuesday they would try to speed up trade talks with the United States in a bid to soften President Donald Trump's stance on new tariffs set to take effect on August 1. But optimism about a trade deal boosted market risk appetite, limiting gold's upside. Traders are awaiting the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest meeting on Wednesday, followed by data on initial jobless claims for the week ended July 5. Investors now expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points before the end of the year, starting in October. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold fell below the 3,300USD whole price point and the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level, which are the initial conditions for gold prices to have a prospect for a bearish trend. Currently, with the position below 3,300USD, gold may continue to decline with the next target around 3,246USD in the short term, more than the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level. The current resistances of gold prices are the pressure from the EMA21 line, followed by the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement. These are also the resistance positions that readers paid attention to in the previous issue. In addition, the RSI is pointing down from 50, currently 50 is considered the nearest resistance and the fact that the RSI is pointing down is quite far from the oversold zone, indicating that there is still room for a decline ahead. During the day, although the trend is not yet completely clear, gold is showing conditions that are more inclined towards a decline, along with that, the notable positions will be listed as follows. Support: 3,292 - 3,246 USD Resistance: 3,300 - 3,340 - 3,350 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3346 - 3344⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3350 →Take Profit 1 3338 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3332 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3245 - 3247⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3241 →Take Profit 1 3253 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3259
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
Trump "stirred up" GOLD recovery but limited by USD appreciationSpot CAPITALCOM:GOLD has rebounded strongly from yesterday's lows, currently trading around $3,333/oz. The main reason is that US President Trump announced a 25% tariff on Japan and South Korea starting August 1, which boosted safe-haven demand. However, the strengthening US Dollar has also limited the broader recovery in gold prices. On Monday local time, US President Trump sent letters to 14 countries including Japan, South Korea and South Africa threatening to impose tariffs. He then signed an executive order to extend the suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" until August 1. Trump announced that he would impose a 25% tariff on imports from Japan and South Korea, effective August 1. In a letter to the leaders of Japan and South Korea, Trump said the tariffs would be imposed on August 1 because the two countries' trade relationship with the United States is "very unfair". This is his first letter to major trading partners ahead of the July 9 deadline to reach a trade deal. Trump said that despite the large trade deficits between the United States and South Korea and Japan, the United States has decided to continue to cooperate with the two countries. However, the United States has decided to move forward on the premise of more balanced and fair trade. Trump said that the trade deficit has posed a major threat to the US economy and even national security, so changes are needed. Starting August 1, 2025, the United States will impose a 25% tariff on all products from South Korea and Japan, regardless of the different tariffs by industry. Additionally, any attempt to circumvent tariffs by shipping through a third country will also be subject to higher tariffs. Trump said companies that choose to build factories or manufacture products in the United States will not have to pay the tariffs. Additionally, if South Korea and Japan decide to increase tariffs on the United States, the United States will impose additional tariffs of the same size on top of the current 25% tariff. Official data released by the People's Bank of China on Monday showed that China's central bank increased its gold reserves in June, marking the eighth consecutive month of increase. Bank of America said that central banks around the world are buying gold to diversify their foreign exchange reserves, thereby reducing their dependence on the US dollar and protecting against inflation and economic instability, and the trend is expected to continue. Technical Outlook Analysis CAPITALCOM:GOLD On the daily chart, gold has recovered from a key technical confluence area, which is the closest support area to note for readers in the weekly publication. The area from $3,292 – $3,300 is the confluence of the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement with the lower edge of the long-term rising price channel. However, the temporary recovery is being limited by the EMA21, the current closest resistance, followed by the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. The recovery momentum is significant, but for gold to have enough technical bullish conditions, it needs to take price action above the EMA21, with a bullish breakout of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level then the prospect of a new bullish cycle will be opened. If gold breaks above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level it will have the next target at the raw price point of $3,400 followed by horizontal resistance at $3,430. During the day, the current gold price should still be assessed as a sideways accumulation trend, when the Relative Strength Index RSI sticks around 50, showing the market's hesitant sentiment. A strong enough fundamental impact to change the structure will give a more specific technical trend in the coming time, and the notable positions will be listed as follows. Support: 3,300 - 3,292 USD Resistance: 3,350 - 3,371 - 3,400 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3366 - 3364⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3370 →Take Profit 1 3358 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3352 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3294 - 3296⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3290 →Take Profit 1 3302 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3308
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
US tariff deadline, GOLD expected to fluctuate very stronglyInvestors will be keeping an eye on tariff news from Washington this week as the temporary suspension of punitive import duties is set to expire. If trade tensions do not escalate further after Wednesday’s deadline, that could be good for the market, while downside risks are also a negative for OANDA:XAUUSD in particular. News Around US Tariffs To avoid higher tariffs, negotiators from more than a dozen major US trading partners are racing against time to negotiate with the Trump administration, trying to reach a deal before July 9. Trump and his team have continued to apply pressure in recent days. Trump announced a deal with Vietnam to lower the 20% tariffs he had promised on many Vietnamese exports, while talks with Japan, the United States’ most important ally in Asia and sixth-largest trading partner, appeared to be stalled, even as Washington hinted it was close to a deal with India. In data Nonfarm payrolls data released Thursday showed the U.S. added 147,000 jobs in June, beating market expectations, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. Despite the slowdown in private-sector hiring, the overall strong report prompted markets to lower expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in July. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut has dropped sharply from 24% to 4.7%. Fed Chairman Powell reiterated that the central bank will not ease its stance until there are more signs of cooling in employment and inflation. Personal Comments The market is following a number of factors: On the one hand, there is a countdown to Trump's "final blow" on tariffs, and on the other hand, the non-farm data has poured cold water once again. As the Fed's stance fluctuates, the US Dollar faces a tug-of-war between long and short positions, while gold continues to stabilize technically or has had significant price increases. July 9 of this month could be a key moment to really test the sustainability of gold in this recovery. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has recovered significantly over the past week, since finding support from the $3,250 area, but the temporary recovery is still limited by the EMA21 followed by the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. However, sustained price action above the $3,300 raw price point should be viewed as a positive signal as it helps gold stabilize within the price channel. If gold rises and breaks above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, it will be eligible to continue rising with a short-term target of around $3,400 rather than a horizontal resistance of $3,430. The indecision sentiment is shown by the RSI activity, which is mostly moving around the 50 level. RSI above 50 is considered a positive signal, while RSI below 50 is considered a negative signal, but gold is currently in the middle of this point. Overall, gold has not yet had a short-term trend, but in the long-term, gold prices are still in an upward trend, which is noted by the price channel. Finally, the notable positions will be listed as follows. Support: 3,300 – 3,292 – 3,250USD Resistance: 3,350 – 3,371 – 3,400USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3334 - 3332⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3338 →Take Profit 1 3326 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3320 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3275 - 3277⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3271 →Take Profit 1 3283 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3289
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Jul 07 - Jul 11]OANDA:XAUUSD opened the week at $3,246/oz due to low summer liquidity, easing recession fears and easing geopolitical tensions. However, they later recovered to $3,365/oz due to concerns about a possible re-escalation of the trade war, as some countries faced obstacles in negotiations with the US ahead of the July 9 tariff delay deadline. By the end of the week, prices had adjusted to $3,311/oz and closed at $3,335/oz. In addition, the US Senate has passed the OBBBA tax cut and spending bill proposed by President Donald Trump. While it helps prevent the risk of a short-term default, the bill could increase the US public debt by more than $3,000 billion over the next 10 years, putting pressure on the bond market and raising concerns about the increasing supply of government bonds while demand is weakening. However, US economic data over the weekend put downward pressure on gold. Specifically, the June employment report showed that the number of non-farm jobs (NFP) reached 147,000, exceeding the forecast of 111,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3%. At the same time, NFP data for April and May were also adjusted up to 158,000 and 144,000 jobs, respectively. These positive numbers almost erased the expectation that the FED would cut interest rates in July. The FED also reaffirmed its stance on maintaining the current policy due to rising inflationary pressures. Overall, gold prices are still stuck in a range, and a clearer prospect of interest rate cuts from the FED is needed to make a strong breakthrough in the near future. 📌Technically, the $3,310/oz level is now acting as an important support zone for gold prices next week. If this level is broken, prices may continue to fall further to the $3,245/oz area or even lower. On the other hand, the $3,365/oz level is a strong resistance. If gold prices break through this area, there is a high possibility that they will approach the $3,400/oz mark. However, the upward momentum may be restrained afterwards due to profit-taking pressure from investors, especially when the US-China trade negotiations are still ongoing and have not reached a final agreement. Investors tend to be cautious, waiting for clearer signals before opening new positions. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 3,300 – 3,292 – 3,250USD Resistance: 3,350 – 3,371 – 3,400USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3401 - 3399⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3405 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3294 - 3296⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3290
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Jun 30 - Jul 04]Last week, OANDA:XAUUSD fell sharply from an opening price of $3,392/oz to a low of $3,255/oz and closed at $3,274/oz. The reason was that Israel and Iran had officially ceased fire, although negotiations with the US remained difficult. In addition, FED Chairman Jerome Powell reaffirmed that there was no rush to cut interest rates due to high inflation risks. In addition, summer is a period of weak demand for physical gold, continuing to put pressure on gold prices. In addition, summer is typically the low season for physical gold demand, which could continue to weigh on gold prices. In addition to the seasonal lull in trading that has affected the gold market, improving economic sentiment as the Trump administration has said there is progress in trade agreements, especially the framework agreement on trade with China, will also continue to negatively impact gold prices next week. Thus, gold prices next week may continue to be under downward pressure, but the decline may not be too large as gold prices next week are still supported by some fundamental factors. This week, the US will release the non-farm payrolls (NFP) report and the unemployment rate for June. According to forecasts, NFP may reach 120,000 jobs. If NFP increases higher than expected, the FED will continue to delay cutting interest rates, negatively affecting gold prices next week. On the contrary, if NFP drops sharply below 100,000 jobs, it will increase the possibility of the FED cutting interest rates, helping gold prices rise again next week, but not too strongly. 📌Technically, the gold price closed below $3,300/oz this week, which could pave the way for a drop to $3,200/oz next week, or below that to $3,120/oz. If the gold price rebounds above $3,300/oz next week, it could trigger a recovery to $3,330-$3,360/oz. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 3,246 – 3,228USD Resistance: 3,292 – 3,300USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3367 - 3365⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3371 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3178 - 3180⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3174
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
GOLD recovers, capped by $3,350, trend viewOANDA:XAUUSD recovered then weakened as it failed to break above $3,350, supported by a weaker dollar and market uncertainty sparked by reports that U.S. President Donald Trump could replace Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in September or October. The reports raised concerns about the future independence of the Federal Reserve, boosting demand for safe-haven gold. On Wednesday, Trump called Powell “terrible” and said he was considering three or four candidates to replace him. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump was even considering announcing a potential successor as early as September or October. The current market narrative is that once Trump nominates a new Fed chair, market expectations will tend to favor a more “dovish” Fed. This could lead to a weaker US dollar, higher long-term US Treasury yields and higher stock prices. Forexlive points out that this story may be more an emotional reaction than a result of objective and rational thinking. The policy of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) is decided not only by the Fed Chairman but also by a majority vote of the 12 voting members (including 7 directors and 5 regional Fed presidents). The Fed Chairman does have a lot of influence, but he does not have absolute control over monetary policy. The Fed was originally designed to be independent of political pressure. Moreover, even if Trump nominates the next chairman, there is no guarantee that this will automatically lead to a rate cut. In fact, Powell was also nominated by Trump, but his monetary policy decisions are still based on professional judgment rather than serving Trump's wishes. So, in the worst case, the market could face policy uncertainty as differences between FOMC members increase and more disagreements emerge. Currently, there are fewer moderate members on the committee, while neutral or hawkish members dominate. Markets are now focused on personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data due later today (Friday) for further clues on whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. On the geopolitical front, a ceasefire between Israel and Iran appeared to be in place on Wednesday after Trump hailed a swift end to the 12-day conflict at the NATO summit and said he would seek a commitment from Iran to abandon its nuclear ambitions in talks next week. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after gold recovered and reached the initial target at 3,350 USD, the nearest resistance is also the price point of the EMA21 noted for readers in the previous publication. However, the recovery momentum is currently weakening, specifically at the time of writing, the gold price is falling below 3,320 USD. Gold falling below 3,320 USD provides conditions for a possible decline with the next target around 3,302 - 3,300 USD, which is the area of ​​​​the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement confluence with the lower edge of the price channel. In terms of momentum, the RSI is heading down and breaking below 50, which should be considered an initial bearish signal. Overall, gold does not have a clear long-term trend as the uptrend is still the main trend, while the momentum is showing signs of decline. But personally, I am still leaning towards the uptrend, and continue to look for positions to buy. Finally, the notable positions will be listed as follows. Support: 3,302 – 3,300 USD Resistance: 3,320 – 3,350 – 3,371 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3367 - 3365⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3371 →Take Profit 1 3359 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3353 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3272 - 3274⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3268 →Take Profit 1 3280 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3286
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD recovers from around $3,300 area, short-term targetsOANDA:XAUUSD has recovered slightly and is currently trading around $3,332/oz, supported by a decline in the US dollar and US bond yields. The market is closely watching the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran. The US Dollar Index TVC:DXY is near a one-week low, making dollar-priced gold more attractive to holders of other currencies. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield is holding near its lowest in more than a month. As the conflict between Israel and Iran ends, geopolitical risk levels have disappeared, safe-haven funds have flowed back and thus gold is under pressure. From a more macro perspective, gold remains in an uptrend and real yields are expected to fall further amid continued Fed easing. In the short term, if the market reprices rate cut expectations to become hawkish, this could trigger a technical correction in gold. Economic data in the coming months will be particularly important for the gold market. If inflation data remains weak or the labor market deteriorates further, Fed officials could cut rates sooner or more significantly than expected. A ceasefire between Iran and Israel brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump appeared to have taken effect on Wednesday, a day after both countries signaled a temporary end to their conflicting air strikes. WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly fell in June, reflecting growing concerns among households about job prospects and another sign of a weakening labor market amid uncertainty over Trump’s tariffs. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress on Tuesday that higher tariffs could start to push up inflation this summer, a key period when the Fed considers whether to cut interest rates. Traders of federal funds futures are currently pricing in a cumulative 60 basis points of rate cuts through 2025, with the first cut likely to come in September. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has recovered slightly after testing the important support area noted by readers in yesterday's edition, around the raw price point of $3,300. However, the temporary recovery is being limited by the EMA21 moving average, followed by the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, which can also be considered as upside targets for the time being. In terms of overall structure, gold is still in an uptrend with the price channel as the main trend. On the other hand, RSI is also hovering around 50, indicating that the market sentiment is still hesitant and does not have enough momentum for a complete trend. Intraday, gold still has a bullish technical outlook, but a sell-off that takes gold below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level would be a bearish signal in the near term. Therefore, long positions should be opened near the $3,300 area, with protective levels behind the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement. Notable positions will also be listed as follows. Support: $3,320 – $3,300 – $3,292 Resistance: $3,350 – $3,371 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3367 - 3365⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3371 →Take Profit 1 3359 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3353 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3301 - 3303⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3297 →Take Profit 1 3309 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3315
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD recovers from 2-week low, short-term neutral biasOANDA:XAUUSD hit a two-week low in yesterday's trading session before recovering, currently trading around $3,330/oz, up slightly by about 0.14% on the day. The main reason was the ceasefire between Iran and Israel, which curbed demand for safe-haven gold. In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell made hawkish comments, which also affected the gold price trend. Israel and Iran reach ceasefire agreement A ceasefire came into effect on Tuesday under pressure from US President Donald Trump, raising optimism that the biggest military conflict between the two arch-rivals in the Middle East may be coming to an end. The easing of tensions in the Middle East has been a major factor in the pressure on gold. Risk sentiment has weakened and the market has entered risk-on mode. US President Trump announced on Monday evening that Israel and Iran had reached an agreement on a “complete and total ceasefire”. Iran’s state TV officially announced on Tuesday that Iran had ceased fire with Israel. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced earlier Tuesday that the Israeli military would launch a new wave of strikes on targets in Tehran in retaliation for Iran's missile launch and "blatant violation" of the ceasefire. The Israeli government said that Israel would hold off on further strikes on Iran after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke with US President Trump. Powell sends important signal Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will testify before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday and deliver a report on the Fed’s monetary policy. Powell will also testify before the Senate Banking Committee today (Wednesday). In congressional testimony on Tuesday, Powell said the Fed needs more time to see whether tariffs are causing inflation to rise further before considering cutting interest rates. In congressional testimony, Powell said he and most Fed officials expect inflation to rise soon and that the Fed is in no rush to cut rates before then. “We are now in a very good position to wait and see what the likely path of the economy is before considering whether to adjust the policy stance,” Powell said. Markets generally believe that the July 29-30 meeting is unlikely to result in a rate cut, with the first rate cut expected in September. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD With the current technical position, gold has not yet had a complete short-term trend as the price action is still around the EMA21 moving average, and the RSI is operating around the 50 level. With the current price action showing that the market is still hesitant, gold may enter a sideways accumulation phase. However, in terms of the long-term trend, gold is still in a long-term uptrend channel with the case for a complete downtrend to occur is the condition that the price action is taken below the raw price point of 3,300 USD. Then the downside target is the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level in the short term. During the day, the trend of gold is neutral with the expected operating range between 3,350 – 3,300 USD. Notable positions will also be listed as follows. Support: 3,320 – 3,300 USD Resistance: 3,350 – 3,371 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3349 - 3347⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3353 →Take Profit 1 3341 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3335 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3301 - 3303⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3297 →Take Profit 1 3309 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3315
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Jun 23 - Jun 27]This week, after opening at $3,369/oz, OANDA:XAUUSD prices fluctuated within a fairly narrow range, from only $3,340-$3,374/oz, and closed at $3,368/oz. The fact that gold prices closed this week close to the opening price shows that investors are hesitant in the current context. The reason why gold prices are still fluctuating within a narrow range this week is because US President Donald Trump gave Iran a 2-week deadline to consider negotiating an end to the conflict with Israel, even though the Israel-Iran conflict is still raging. In addition, on June 12, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5%, while adjusting its forecast for US GDP growth lower and raising its estimate for near-term inflation. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged that tariffs would push up prices and weigh on economic activity. Although two rate cuts are expected before the end of the year, Powell said the Fed may wait for more clarity before cutting rates. Next week, the Fed Chairman will hold two semiannual monetary policy hearings before the US House and Senate committees on Tuesday and Wednesday. If Fed Chairman Powell hints at a rate cut in September 2025, the USD could fall against other major currencies, causing gold prices to rise next week. Conversely, if the Fed Chairman emphasizes that they will continue to prioritize controlling inflation and is in no hurry to cut interest rates, the USD will rise, thereby pushing gold prices down next week. 📌Technically, the gold price on the H4 and D1 charts is stuck between the range of 3295-3450, which is an important support level around 3295, and the resistance level at 3450. The current price is moving sideways and accumulating in smaller time frames, and the trend has not been clearly defined when it has not broken through the above two resistance levels. There are two scenarios for gold. In the long-term framework, if it breaks through the 3450 zone and breaks the trend at the same time, it is expected that the gold price will set a new high. In the case that the gold price trades below the 3300 round resistance, and at the same time the 3295 support zone is broken, it is easy to form a head and shoulders pattern on the H4 chart. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 3,350 – 3,320 – 3,300USD Resistance: 3,371 – 3,400 – 3,435 – 3,500USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3412 - 3410⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3416 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3294 - 3296⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3290
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD falls after Trump's statement, but skepticism remainsOn Tuesday (June 24) in the Asian market, spot OANDA:XAUUSD continued to decline. The current price of gold is around 3,340 USD/ounce, down sharply by about 30 USD. Gold traders are awaiting congressional testimony from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell as the ceasefire between Iran and Israel takes place. On Monday evening local time, US President Trump announced that Israel and Iran have reached a complete agreement to achieve a comprehensive ceasefire. After Trump announced the news, spot gold prices fell sharply by more than 30 USD in the early morning trading session in Asia on Tuesday, which lasted until the time of writing. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver his semiannual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday. Looking ahead, all eyes will be on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s two-day congressional testimony starting on Tuesday for fresh clues on the timing of the next rate cut. The market is now pricing in a 21% chance of a Fed rate cut next month, up from a 14.5% chance on Friday, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Additionally, markets will continue to closely monitor the Iran-Israel conflict to see if the ceasefire can hold. The Israeli military continues to report that Iran has launched ballistic missiles into Israel. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold is down and operating around the EMA21 moving average and technically, gold is currently in the best support area. Specifically, gold is operating at the EMA21, the technical indicator is noted as an important support for the short-term uptrend, followed by the horizontal support of 3,320 USD. Combined with the price action position, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above 50, and 50 is now acting as a support in terms of momentum for the possibility of price increase. However, if gold sells below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level, it could be bearish, with the next target being the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level at $3,228. Therefore, the area of ​​the $3,300 base point is a very important support area for the long-term uptrend. Intraday, with the current position, gold can still increase in price with the short-term target at $3,371 followed by the $3,400 base point. Notable positions will also be listed as follows. Support: $3,300 – $3,292 Resistance: $3,350 – $3,371 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3407 - 3405⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3411 →Take Profit 1 3399 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3393 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3304 - 3306⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3300 →Take Profit 1 3312 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3318
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD recovers market overview, key outlookOANDA:XAUUSD is under downward pressure, and ended last week's trading session with a decline. With tensions in the Middle East easing slightly and the Federal Reserve giving a hawkish signal, the safe-haven demand in the gold market tends to weaken, and investors' profit-taking intentions increase, these are the main reasons why gold recorded a significant correction this week. Gold prices fell last week as safe-haven demand weakened as tensions in the Middle East temporarily eased. President Trump said he would decide on military action against Iran in the next two weeks, a concession that helped ease fears of an escalation. Although Iran continued to launch missiles at Israel, the situation has not spread. However, the Middle East conflict remains risky and is unlikely to end completely. Gold prices are under pressure due to the Fed's hawkish tone. Although the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, Chairman Powell warned of inflation risks, especially from Trump's new tax policies. At the same time, Mr. Chris Waller's statement showed that the possibility of a July interest rate cut also depends on the inflation situation, causing market expectations to decrease and negatively affecting gold - a non-interest-bearing asset. Central banks and institutions maintain bullish medium- and long-term expectations Despite short-term pressures, most institutions maintain positive medium-term expectations for gold. Goldman Sachs reiterated its target of $4,000/oz by 2025, while Citigroup believes gold could fall below $3,000/oz by 2026. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has once again bounced from the EMA21 and reached its initial upside target at the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement of $3,371, as noted in previous editions. For now, for gold to qualify for its next upside target at the raw price of $3,400, it needs to sustain price action above the 0.236% Fibonacci level, which means the 0.236% Fibonacci level is also the closest resistance at present. Once gold breaks above the raw price point of $3,400, it will be in a position to continue its short-term rally with a target of around $3,435, rather than the all-time high of $3,500. In terms of overall structure, gold still has a bullish outlook with the price channel as the main trend and RSI remaining above 50 and well away from the overbought zone, suggesting that there is still plenty of upside ahead. In the case of a sell-off, if gold is sold below the EMA21, it could test the $3,320 support in the short term, more so the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level converging with the lower edge of the price channel. Therefore, early long positions may be considered in terms of volume as well as protection of open positions. Finally, technically, gold is still trending with an overall bullish outlook, with notable positions listed as follows. Support: $3,350 – $3,320 – $3,300 Resistance: $3,371 – $3,400 – $3,435 – $3,500 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3406 - 3404⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3410 →Take Profit 1 3398 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3392 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3312 - 3314⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3308 →Take Profit 1 3320 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3326
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading