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GOLD approaches $2,356 again, geopolitics, CPI dataOANDA:XAUUSD has corrected from all-time highs but still maintains a bullish trend. Gold prices are expected to reach additional record highs in the near future. Tensions in the Middle East pushed gold prices up sharply. Hamas official Ali Baraka said Hamas had rejected Israel's latest ceasefire proposal. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a video statement on the evening of April 8, local time, saying: “If the Israeli army wants to completely defeat Hamas, it must enter Rafah, the southernmost point of the Strip Palestinian Gaza, and conduct significant activities, this will happen and will be announced in advance.” Netanyahu also said he had received a detailed report on the negotiations in Cairo and that Israel "is continuously working to achieve its goals, starting with the release of all detainees and winning complete victory over Hamas." Markets are also watching key US inflation data due out this week. Inflation data is expected to provide further guidance on the Fed's interest rate cut roadmap and could be the next driver for gold prices. The US consumer price index (CPI) for March will be released on Wednesday. According to a survey of economists, the US general CPI in March will increase by 0.3% over the previous month, slightly lower than 0.4% in February; US core CPI in March is expected to increase by 0.3% compared to the previous month. Analysis of gold price prospects OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, although gold has corrected since approaching the 1% Fibonacci extension at $2,356, which readers noticed in the weekly edition, it has since taken support from area of ​​the 0.786% Fibonacci level and increased again to approach the $2,356 level once again. A position being tested many times means that the effectiveness of that technical position will no longer be much. However, at the present time, the level of 2,356USD still serves as the closest notable resistance level. The main trend of gold price remains unchanged with the main uptrend from all technical indicators. Expecting a downside correction should be targeted in the short term with the nearest support at the $2,311 – $2,300 area, while defending open positions expecting a downside correction should be placed behind the level. 2,356 USD. During the day, the technical outlook of gold prices will be noticed by the following price levels. Support: 2328 - 2313 - 2303USD Resistance: 2348 - 2354 - 2360USD In recent times, we (Traders) always have to be mentally ready to face major fluctuations in the market, it has become very normal for gold to move 1% to over 2% every working day.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD increased sharply despite rising US bond yieldsThe week ahead presents many ‘high importance’ risk events ranging from US CPI data to central bank decisions in Canada, New Zealand and the European Union. The FOMC minutes of the March meeting will also provide more insight on Fed thinking, although, the trend of hotter US data may diminish the impact of what was discussed during the March meeting. TVC:DXY IN FOCUS AHEAD OF CPI DATA, NFP BOOST PROVED SHORT-LIVED Friday’s hotter-than-expected jobs data for March initially sent the dollar higher but the catalyst failed to hold into the close. US CPI data will definitely draw a huge focus from the market due to the stubborn PCE figures and generally robust US data that may delay rate cuts even further. THE RISK OF A BROADER CONFLICT IN THE MIDDLE EAST TRIGGERED OANDA:XAUUSD SAFE HAVEN PUSH Gold has gone from strength to strength despite rising US yields. The greenback (DXY) registered a minor decline last week but US 2-year and 10-year treasury yields rose for the week. The prospect of rates remaining on hold for longer, has the potential to see more hawkish repricing for treasuries that increases the opportunity cost of holding the non-interest bearing commodity. Recent escalations in eastern Europe and the Middle East raise the allure of gold due to its safe haven properties but the market has returned to massively overbought territory, hinting at a potential cooling off period at the start of the week in the absence of further escalation.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD stopped its decline and rebounded strongly againToday's world gold price is listed on Kitco at 2,175 USD/ounce, up 17 USD/ounce compared to early yesterday morning. World gold prices rebounded due to the weakening of the USD as investors still hope that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in June despite high inflation in the US. Meanwhile, escalating geopolitical tensions cause safe-haven demand for gold bars to remain. World gold prices rebounded due to the weakening of the USD as investors still hope that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in June despite high inflation in the US. Meanwhile, escalating geopolitical tensions cause safe-haven demand for gold bars to remain. Currently, there will be 2 scenarios for bullish gold speculators. If the Fed cuts interest rates, gold will skyrocket. If the interest rate cut scenario does not take place, concerns about inflation could also push gold higher. As of March 13, market indicators based on signals from the CME Fedwatch tool showed that there was a 64.7% chance that the Fed would lower interest rates at its meeting on June 12 with a cut of 25 to 50 points. percent, slightly lower than the 68.7% recorded on March 6. The possibility that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at the March 21 meeting is up to 99%, while the possibility of not reducing interest rates at the May meeting is 89.6%. In the second half of the year, the Fed is forecast to enter a cycle of interest rate cuts and precious metals will be strongly supported. Gold is forecast to reach 2,200-2,400 USD/ounce in 2024. Resistance: 2184 - 2192 - 2200 - 2210 Support: 2166 - 2157 - 2147 - 2137 Breakout: 2178 waiting for BUY test point Breakout: 2172 waiting for SELL test point
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
22
Cryptocurrency Q2 Technical Forecast: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana.BINANCE:BTCUSD , CRYPTO:ETHUSD , AND CRYPTO:SOLUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The outlook for Bitcoin and Ethereum is positive, but volatility is expected in the coming months. BTC/USD reached a high in mid-March before retracing back to its previous all-time high. Bitcoin appears poised to rise in the coming weeks, with the current spot price above all three moving averages (except for the 20-day sma), and the CCI indicator showing oversold conditions. The Average True Range (ATR) indicator reflects high levels of volatility. While Bitcoin is expected to move higher, sharp downturns can be anticipated along the way. From now until Halving day, you should limit shorting BTC, not knowing how crazy BTC will push to pull in liquidity from the Fomo crowd. The Q2 outlook for Ethereum looks positive, with a similar daily chart to Bitcoin. While Bitcoin reached a new all-time high this year, Ethereum is still below its November 2021 ATH at $4,860. The recent triple-top at just under $4,100 is the next target, and if broken, $4,400 and the November 2021 ATH will come into play. Ethereum is currently oversold according to the CCI indicator, and volatility is high. A fresh all-time high may be challenging in Q2, but a pushback above $4k seems likely for Ethereum. Solana traders have experienced a volatile journey recently, as the L1 coin surged from the mid-teens in September 2023 to a high of $210. The increased activity on the Solana network, fueled by market enthusiasm for meme coins, has caused the Solana share price to increase nearly tenfold in six months. Interest in Solana remains strong, indicating that the recent $210 high may be surpassed in the coming weeks. However, reaching the all-time high of around $260 may be more challenging, although bullish traders highlight that Solana is currently above all three simple moving averages.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD retreated from the threshold of 2,305 USDUS NONFARM PAYROLLS – OANDA:XAUUSD - The U.S. dollar and gold prices will be very sensitive to the upcoming U.S. jobs report - Market expectations suggest the U.S. economy created 200,000 payrolls in March - Strong job growth should be positive for the U.S. dollar but bearish for gold prices OANDA:XAUUSD corrected as the US Dollar recovered due to hawkish comments from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari. Kashkari warned that interest rate cuts this year may not happen without progress on inflation. He stated that if inflation trends continue to move sideways, cutting interest rates would be questionable. Kashkari finds the inflation data for January and February worrying and wants to see more progress before considering rate cuts. Kashkari is currently a hawkish representative on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), but he does not have the right to vote on monetary policy this year. Gold investors are currently focused on the US nonfarm payrolls report released today. Economists predict 200,000 new jobs will be created in March. NAVIGATING THE POTENTIAL MARKET REACTIONS How the markets respond to the NFP data will largely depend on whether the numbers exceed or fall short of expectations: Strong Report: A surprisingly strong jobs report could signal a resilient economy, leading the U.S. central bank to hold off on plans to ease interest rates imminently. This scenario should be bullish for the U.S. dollar, but is likely to put downward pressure on precious metals like gold and silver. Weak Report: A disappointing NFP release might indicate a cooling labor market. This could bolster market expectations for earlier interest rate cuts by the Fed, strengthening the case for a June move. Such a development could lead to a weaker U.S. dollar, providing potential support for gold and silver prices. OANDA:XAUUSD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS On the daily chart, Gold is experiencing bearish corrections after approaching the 0.786% Fibonacci Extension noticed with the Previous Strategy yesterday and it is also above the initial notable support area about 2,265USD. If the gold price is limited to downward adjustments and returns to above the 0.618% Fibonacci extension level, it will again have conditions to increase in price in the short term with the target level maintained at around 2,300 - 2,311 USD. Meanwhile, even if the $2,265 level is broken below, gold still has many other notable technical supports such as the 0.50% Fibonacci extension level and the main uptrend from price channel will not change. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices is still heavily tilted towards the possibility of price increases and notable levels will be listed as follows. Support: 2,265 – 2,250USD Resistance: 2,275 – 2,305USD
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD setting a new highest peak in historyOANDA:XAUUSD market continues its unstoppable trend, hitting a record high and up nearly 5% from last Friday. Gold prices continue to benefit from escalating geopolitical tensions, although the US March jobs report lent support to the USD. Gold prices reached a new high despite strong US nonfarm payrolls data. The report showed an increase of 303,000 jobs in March, surpassing expectations. This suggests the Fed may be patient in fighting inflation. Although gold prices initially decreased, they later recovered and rose by over 1.5%. The market's short-term reaction indicates a demand for shelter. The main factors driving gold price increases are starting to take effect more and there is more room for the next price increase. Issues such as rising tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine have increased the appeal of gold. Gold prices had their third consecutive weekly increase, after a series of recent records. As geopolitical tensions in the Middle East heat up, gold's safe-haven function will gradually become more effective. Data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that for the week ending April 2, speculative net long positions in COMEX gold futures increased by 20,493 lots to 178,213 lots . Notable economic data & events next week Wednesday: US Consumer Price Index (CPI), Bank of Canada monetary policy decision Thursday: ECB monetary policy decision, US core PPI, US weekly initial jobless claims Friday: University of Michigan preliminary data on consumer sentiment Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold continuously creates new all-time highs. After gaining support from the 2,265 USD level, gold continued to break the peak and also broke the important resistance level at the Fibonacci 0.786% price point of 2,311 USD. Note to readers in the previous issue. Gold now qualifies for a new bullish cycle as the next technical level in focus could be towards the $2,356 price point of the 1% Fibonacci extension. The $2,311 – $2,300 level becomes the closest support after the above break, and a bearish correction is possible only if gold manages to bring price activity below the 0.786% Fibonacci level, even in the case of a bearish correction. Gold price will also be limited by the 0.618% Fibonacci level and the price point of 2,265USD. In the coming time, the main trend of gold price will still be the upward trend from price channel in the short term and price channel in the long term. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,311 – 2,300 – 2,275 Resistance: 2,346 - 2,356
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD new all-time high, technical area can make correctionsOANDA:XAUUSD continues to make new all-time highs, while Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has reiterated that recent job growth data and higher-than-expected inflation data will not materially change the the general situation of economic policy this year (the Fed is expected to start its interest rate cutting cycle in June). Fed Jerome Powell Powell said that “if the economy expands as we expect,” he and his colleagues at the Fed largely agree that lower policy rates would be appropriate “sometime this year.” ”. Speeches from Federal Reserve officials, strong jobs data and a decline in business activity in the services sector weighed on the dollar. A slight decline in the US Dollar will create a boost for safe-haven precious metals. Investors still expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates for the first time at its policy meeting on June 11-12, although recent strong economic data has tempered expectations. Overall, it doesn't have much impact. Gold, a hedge against inflation and a safe haven in times of political and economic uncertainty, has risen more than 11% year to date, thanks to strong Federal Reserve buying and demand. safe haven. Macro data The ADP report showed that U.S. private companies last month saw their biggest hiring gain since last July, led by the leisure and hospitality industry. Job growth was strong in all industries, but employment fell in professional services. US ADP employment increased by 184,000 people in March, the largest increase since July 2023. “ADP data is not a game changer.” Along with the upward revision to February's data, this is another small piece of evidence that the US economy continues to grow, which should continue to support rising yields. Even in the case of better data than gold, there is still a lot of momentum, and we can even see the dollar market and bond yields rising along with gold. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said the US non-manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) fell to 51.4 in March from 52.6 in February. This is the second consecutive month of decline. continued since the index recovered in January. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy. Services inflation is also falling due to slowing demand. The survey showed that the input price index fell to 53.4 in March from 58.6 in February, the lowest since March 2020. Data last week showed inflation in the services sector, excluding energy and housing, cooled sharply in February after accelerating in January. The geopolitical situation drives the need for shelter Early on the morning of April 4 local time, the deputy governor in charge of security in Sistan and Baluchestan province in southeastern Iran said that military headquarters in the province's Rask and Chabahar cities were attacked by terrorists. The terrorist organization "Army of Justice" participated in this terrorist attack. The deputy governor in charge of provincial security said that in Lask city, terrorists tried to break into the Revolutionary Guard base but were unsuccessful and the conflict is still ongoing. It is known that 3 Iranian soldiers were killed in the battle with the terrorist organization "Army of Justice". Iran blames Israel for the deadly airstrike on its consulate in the Syrian capital Damascus on Monday. The attack killed seven officers. Tehran on Tuesday pledged to retaliate for the attack, seen as a major escalation in the Israeli-Palestinian war. Geopolitical risks are becoming increasingly prominent, which is beneficial for safe-haven demand, especially assets sensitive to geopolitical instability such as gold. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD In terms of technical structure, the gold price still has all the bullish factors. All-time levels are continuously refreshed and currently gold slows down to reach the original price of 2,300 USD and the area near the 0.786% Fibonacci extension, this area is expected to create short-term corrections first. as the main uptrend continues. Since gaining support from the $2,265 level, readers noted in yesterday's edition gold has increased significantly with a break above the 0.618% Fibonacci extension making this level support. Current nearest support. The gold market is likely to receive downward corrections as the Relative Strength Index reaches overbought levels, a short-term price decline that could retest the support area of the upper edge of the price channel and the 0.618% Fibonacci extension. In the short term, the main trend of gold price is still an uptrend and may adjust in the short term. Notable technical levels are listed below: Resistance: 2306 - 2315 - 2320 - 2330 - 2335 Support: 2297 - 2288 - 2282 - 2266
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD in March marked a record month of increaseWorld gold price stood at 2,259 USD/ounce, a sharp increase of 26 USD/ounce compared to last week's closing session. MARKET RECAP: NEW RECORD IN THE BOOKS Gold broke its previous record and crossed the $2,200 per ounce mark in an exceptional first quarter. This surge was mainly driven by investor expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy outlook. Following a period of significant interest rate increases in 2022 and 2023 in many developed economies, investors anticipate central banks like the Fed to start easing restrictions as economic growth and inflation stabilize. The future potential for gold's upward movement may be limited due to the already priced-in transition to a more relaxed stance. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to adopt a more dovish posture, which is necessary for significant gains, given recent guidance and inflation risks. If the FOMC delays action and shifts towards a more hawkish direction, gold could face turbulence. Gold typically benefits from lower Treasury yields and a weaker U.S. dollar, which are associated with the Fed reducing borrowing costs. BEYOND THE FED: GEOPOLITICS, CENTRAL BANK DEMAND The impact of global interest rates on gold's trend is not the only factor to consider. Ongoing conflicts, particularly the Russia-Ukraine war, have already increased the geopolitical value of gold and could provide further support if tensions escalate in the next quarter. In addition, strong purchases of physical gold by central banks will contribute to market strength. In 2022 and 2023, central banks acquired more than 1,000 tonnes of gold each year, signaling a historic pace. The Central Bank of Turkey and the People's Bank of China were among the active buyers. Central banks are buying gold in record amounts due to its safe-haven qualities, stability as a store of value, and diversification benefits. As global power dynamics shift and U.S. dominance becomes less certain, central banks are strategically reallocating their reserves away from heavy reliance on the U.S. dollar. Limited data for 2024 shows strong demand for gold, with January's central bank acquisitions of 39 tonnes and projections suggesting continued robust demand throughout the year. This could provide a buffer against potential losses in a bearish market correction. THE OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL WITH A WATCHFUL EYE The second quarter may see consolidation for gold after its strong gains in the first months. A significant price surge is unlikely unless there are unexpected changes in global inflation and monetary policy. Investors should monitor economic data, central bank communication, and geopolitical developments for insights into gold's future. The upcoming U.S. presidential election could bring increased volatility and potentially benefit gold prices as a defensive investment. However, this is not expected to dominate the market in the second quarter yet. Assessing the outlook, it is estimated that gold price can easily reach 2,300 USD/ounce or higher in the second quarter of 2024. Resistance: 2260 - 2265 - 2270 Support: 2250 - 2245 - 2235 - 2225
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD decreased slightly after the session set a new recordWorld gold price decreased by 3.7 USD to 2,247.8 USD/ounce. After rising sharply to a new record high in the first trading session of April, thanks to expectations of US interest rate cuts and the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset, metal prices This quarter has slightly adjusted this morning. Market watchers are currently expecting the FED to cut interest rates in May or June. However, many investors are still cautious about the pace of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (FED) in the coming months. this year and how long it will take for the FED to bring inflation to its target level of 2%. On March 29, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that economic growth is still strong and inflation is still higher than the target level. By June, the gold market will see gold prices increase due to expectations of interest rate cuts by the FED. Experts believe that, no matter how quickly or slowly the US Central Bank cuts interest rates, the agency will still reduce interest rates this year. Breakout: 2265 - 2230 Resistance: 2257 - 2175 - 2280 Support: 2245 - 2235 - 2222 - 2212
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD continuously set new recordsWorld gold price stood at 2,282 USD/ounce, a sharp increase of 33 USD/ounce compared to the same hour yesterday morning. This continues to be the highest price in world gold trading history. Gold prices continue to increase sharply due to the need for a safe haven amid increasing tensions in the Middle East. The increase in strength of the USD and expectations of US interest rate cuts have almost no impact on the rise in gold prices. Gold has increased steeply, reaching a new record, although at the same time some overbought conditions appeared, leading to a slight correction. However, gold's recent declines have been insignificant in nature, as potential investors are willing to wait for better entry points. In addition, strong demand from retail investors and central banks around the world is also a factor that helps prolong the rise of this precious metal. The combination of factors has helped gold bullion prices increase nearly 10% from the beginning of the year until now.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
🖥 GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [April 01 - April 05]This week, international gold prices rose sharply from 2,163 USD/oz to 2,236 USD/oz, closing at 2,233 USD/oz. The increase is attributed to positive US economic growth in Q4 2023, although it slowed compared to previous quarters. Inflation is also decreasing, leading investors to anticipate interest rate cuts by the FED from June onwards. The forecast for March 2024 non-agricultural employment (NFP) is 198,000 jobs, down from the previous period's 275,000. If this forecast is accurate, it will support the expectation of an interest rate cut by the FED, causing gold prices to rise. However, if NFP exceeds expectations, it could negatively impact gold prices. Additionally, the tone of the Fed Chairman's speech next week is uncertain. Gold prices are expected to rise in the long term due to the slowdown of the US economy and the potential recession risks. The inverted bond yield curve indicates that the FED will likely implement three interest rate cuts this year. Central banks buying gold will also support its long-term prices. However, there is a short-term risk of profit-taking by investors, particularly ETFs. 📌According to technical analysis, gold prices are still in an uptrend and may reach $2,300/oz. If economic data is negative, prices may face profit-taking pressure with support levels at $2,150-2,100-2,080/oz. Trading plan: sell at $2,300 and buy at $2,150.
TVC:GOLD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD solid gains, extending positive momentumOANDA:XAUUSD Q2 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Gold kicked off the first quarter of 2024 with solid gains, extending the positive momentum established in the latter part of 2023. During this upturn, XAU/USD soared to new all-time highs, decisively breaking past the $2,150 mark, and eventually reaching a peak of $2,235. While bullion’s technical profile continues to be bullish, with a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows, caution is advised, with the 10-week RSI indicator signaling possible overbought conditions. When markets become overextended in a short period of time, corrective pullbacks often follow, even if they turn out to be temporary or relatively minor. In the event of a bearish shift, support can be identified at $2,145, followed by $2,070, as displayed in the weekly chart attached. Bulls will need to vigorously defend this technical floor; failure to do so may result in a retracement towards the 200-day simple moving average near $1,985. Further down, attention will turn to channel support at $1,920, then to $1,810. On the other hand, if the bulls maintain control of the steering wheel and look to push prices higher in the coming days and weeks, a successful breakout could add further bullish pressure, paving the way for a move towards resistance. channel at $2,255.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD skyrocketed, the world reached a new peakThe world gold spot price is around 2,233 USD/ounce, a spike of 42 USD/ounce compared to the transaction at the same time yesterday morning. Closing last night's session, the world gold spot price in the US market stood at 2,233 USD/ounce, a sharp increase of more than 38 USD/ounce, equivalent to an increase of 1.74% compared to the previous session's close. Yesterday, the global financial market received more positive economic information in the US, the USD increased well but the price of gold - a capital security asset still increased too strongly to an unprecedented high. Specifically, the US announced that its gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2023 increased by 3.4% over the same period, higher than the previous forecast of 3.2%. First-time applications for unemployment benefits in the US last week were at 210,000 applications, lower than the 212,000 applications forecast previously and last week. PCE price is an index measuring the price change of consumer goods and services exchanged in the US economy in the fourth quarter of 2023, increasing by 1.8% over the same period, much lower than the level achieved in the previous quarter. 2.6%. Thus, closing data on US gross domestic product increased compared to the same period last year, initial applications for unemployment benefits decreased, showing that the US economy is recovering positively. The decrease in PCE prices shows that the price of personal consumption goods has decreased, which will contribute to reducing inflation in the US. According to market rules, the USD enjoyed a very good increase in the session last night - early this morning. Specifically, the Dollar-Index - measuring the strength of the greenback compared to 6 major currencies, increased quite well by 0.28% to 104,217 points. Normally, positive economic information and the USD will cause gold prices to drop sharply. However, investors believe that when factors related to inflation decline deeply, such as PCE, it will promote the process of reducing interest rates by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) soon. Tonight, the US will announce the PCE price index for February. Current forecasts are that all indicators of PCE in February are higher than last month. In particular, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will give a speech. Investors will look for more clues about when to cut interest rates, as well as the health of the US economy from Mr. Jerome Powell. Currently, 71% of market forecasts are that the Fed will cut interest rates for the first time in a series of high interest rate days in June this year. Experts say that if the PCE price index falls, it could be gold. prices will increase sharply. Because it is predicted that the Fed will cut interest rates soon to support the economy. If PCE increases, the Fed may delay cutting interest rates after June as forecast.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
USDCHF in 2023 with a rather erratic downtrendIn Q1, two central banks that have previously used negative interest rates made surprising decisions. The Bank of Japan exited negative rates, while the Swiss National Bank (SNB) unexpectedly cut their benchmark interest rate. The SNB may continue to ease further due to low inflation forecasts and weak growth. In contrast, the Fed wants more confidence in consistent inflation towards the 2% target before taking action. CONTRASTING FUNDAMENTALS PRESENT AN OPPORTUNITY FOR OANDA:USDCHF IN Q2 The SNB's rate cut may prompt other central banks to do the same. While the Swiss Franc may face currency depreciation, Switzerland's low inflation justifies the decision to cut rates. The strong franc makes Swiss exports less competitive than goods from countries with a weaker exchange rate. Switzerland can handle any imported inflation resulting from the rate cut due to low inflation levels, but it is unlikely to be significant given the small 25 basis point cut. CENTRAL BANK POLICY COULD EXTEND BULLISH OANDA:USDCHF SETUPS IN Q2 Market expectations foresee a strong chance (78%) of another 25-bps rate cut from the SNB in June and if the likelihood of that second cut gains momentum, perhaps on softer inflation or weaker GDP, the franc may depreciate further as markets price in such an outcome. The Fed maintained their projection of three rate cuts for 2024. The Fed's dot plot, based on the median value of 19 estimates, suggests hesitation in easing financial conditions due to strong US data. If the data remains strong, the dollar may be supported in Q2. THE TRADE: LONG OANDA:USDCHF UPON IMPROVED ENTRY POINT USD/CHF spent most of 2023 trending lower in a rather choppy fashion, but at the turn of the new year fortunes reversed. The pair traded higher and eventually broke above trendline resistance on the back of the surprise cut by the SNB. The guidance to this trade suggests looking to enter the developing uptrend at a better level due to the sharp ascent at the end of Q1. Another sign to wait for a better entry level appears via the rejection of higher prices at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2023 decline. A move back down to 0.8829 would reveal a retest of trendline support (prior resistance), whereafter, a bullish continuation may provide a higher probability trade. A level to consider includes 0.9085 which serves as a tripwire for continued bullish price action. Thereafter, upside targets comprise of 0.9245 and 0.9473. A retest of the late 2023 low would invalidate the bullish setup.
Long
by Xayah_trading
GOLD there is a possibility of a downward adjustment this weekOANDA:XAUUSD ANALYSIS - Dollar down, gold up - Gold retests prior 2024 all-time high DOLLAR DOWN, GOLD UP Gold is influenced by a slightly weaker dollar at the start of the shortened trading week. Last week, gold prices showed an unusual evening star pattern, which can indicate a bearish trend reversal. The dollar is possibly stabilizing after a volatile end to the week. The main event risk this week is the release of inflation data on Friday. Limited catalysts are expected until then. Friday is a bank holiday in the UK and US, which could lead to a volatile USD movement if there is unexpected data amid lower liquidity. OANDA:XAUUSD RETESTS PRIOR 2024 ALL-TIME HIGH Gold prices attempted to close above $2195, the all-time high printed earlier this year before the latest milestone around $2222. This appears as a test for bullish momentum with a failure to close above suggesting that bullish momentum may require another catalyst to advance the bullish move. $2146 appears as the relevant level of support if bears are to regain control this week. To reiterate, Friday may cause elevated volatility should we see a surprise in the data – due to lower liquidity. Pay attention to the Breakout zone 2166 - 2180 Resistance: 2180 - 2186 - 2195 Support: 2166 - 2157 - 2150 - 2145
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
3
GOLD hanging high, not far from the historical peak set recentlyThe world gold price is trading at 2,190 USD/ounce, up 12 USD/ounce from yesterday. Investors are anticipating US inflation data, which could provide insights into the US Federal Reserve's policy pivot. Despite the USD rebounding, precious metals remain near their recent historical peak. Investors are waiting for US economic data to be released later this week to more clearly determine when the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin its interest rate reduction cycle. Currently, most experts are optimistic about gold in the near future, saying that this precious metal is strongly supported by expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates this year even though inflation is still "persistent". , strong demand from central banks and fears of geopolitical tensions. Gold reached a record high last week after the Fed suggested three interest rate cuts in 2024. However, commodity analysts are doubtful that gold can continue to rise due to its significant increase in March.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD gains are limited amid a cautious marketGold prices rose slightly on Monday amid cautious market sentiment ahead of important events, such as the FOMC announcement. XAU/USD increased by around 0.2% in early afternoon trading in New York, finding support near $2,150. The Federal Reserve will hold its March meeting and may adjust its forward guidance and economic outlook due to recent inflation concerns. The recent CPI and PPI reports show a worrying trend: disinflation progress is slowing down and may even reverse. As a result, the Fed might take a more cautious approach by delaying the shift to looser policies and reducing the scale of future easing measures. This could result in two rate cuts of 0.25% in 2024 instead of the previously projected three cuts. FOMC MEETING PROBABILITIES If policymakers signal a less dovish roadmap and delay the easing cycle, it could cause US Treasury yields and the dollar to rise. This may pose a threat to the current rally in precious metals, especially gold, and lead to a significant downward correction. However, if the central bank maintains its previous outlook and shows confidence in reducing borrowing costs, gold may have a better chance of moving higher. Recent data on inflation risks suggests that a dovish outcome from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is less probable. OANDA:XAUUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold prices stabilized on Monday after a weak performance last week. The prices rebounded from support at around $2,150 and could potentially face resistance at the trendline of $2,175. If this resistance is overcome, attention will shift to the all-time high of $2,195. If bears regain control of the market, the first technical floor to watch for a pullback is $2,150. Bulls need to defend this zone to prevent further selling pressure. Failure to do so could lead to a drop towards $2,085, with potential losses shifting focus to $2,065. Resistance: 2162 - 2171 - 2177 Support: 2145 - 2135 - 2125
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
6
GOLD prices stabilize after a strong sell-offOANDA:XAUUSD AND ANALYSIS - Gold’s backdrop remains positive and may lead to further gains. - Retail trader positioning is 50/50. Gold reached a new record high last week but ended the week relatively unchanged after a sharp sell-off. The Federal Reserve hinted at a potential rate cut of 75 basis points this year, which initially boosted gold. However, the US dollar strengthened towards the end of the week, putting pressure on gold prices. While the USD strengthened, US bond yields declined in expectation of a lower Fed Fund rate. The rate-sensitive US 2 year decreased by about 14 basis points, while the benchmark US 10 year dropped by 11 basis points last week. Although a temporarily stronger US dollar may limit gold's upward potential, lower US bond yields could potentially drive prices higher and retest last Thursday's all-time high. After completing a bullish pennant pattern last week, the daily gold chart is now looking to build another bullish set-up. The current sideways price action may turn into a bullish flag pattern, and this would likely see gold pushback above $2,200/oz. and test the ATH at just under $2,225/oz. Reasonable first-line support seen a fraction under $2,150/oz. Note the breakout zone 2166 - 2181 Resistance: 2181 - 2188 - 2195 Support: 2166 - 2157 - 2150 - 2145
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
🖥 GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [March 25 - March 29]This week, international gold prices increased quite sharply from 2,145 USD/oz to 2,211 USD/oz, then decreased to 2,157 USD/oz and closed the week at 2,165 USD/oz. The reason why international gold prices increased sharply in the first sessions of the week was because in the recent meeting, the FED said there would be 3 interest rate cuts this year, regardless of inflation remaining above the target level of 2%. Although from now until the next June meeting, the US will have a lot of economic data, especially inflation and employment data... published, but many experts still affirm that the FED will find it difficult to delay monetary easing. bad. Because if the FED delays cutting interest rates further, it will cause the US economy to lose growth momentum and even fall into recession. Although the economic recession depends on a number of other factors, that statistical probability also partly shows that there is a potential risk to the US economy, and the FED may have also anticipated the risk. Therefore, we will be determined to cut interest rates in the near future. And this will also be the reason for the gold price to increase even higher, although it is difficult for the gold price to avoid the pressure of adjustment and consolidation in the short term due to profit taking by investors, ETFs, especially SPDR. big profitable states. Next week, the US will release a lot of economic data, notably the personal consumption expenditure index (PCE) - the FED's favorite inflation index. Even if PCE increases more than expected, it is not a cause for concern, because the FED has confirmed that it will still cut interest rates even if the target inflation is above 2%. Therefore, PCE may not have much impact on gold prices next week, unless this index increases dramatically. Technically, the next support level for gold prices next week is at 2,145 USD/oz. If it stays above this level, gold prices will likely increase again next week. However, if next week's gold price is pushed below this level, it may adjust to below 2,100 USD/oz, followed by the important support area of ​​2,041-2,067 USD/oz. The trading plan (reference) for next week will consider buying around 2077 and selling around the 2200 round resistance mark.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD record increase after FED's decisionFORECAST - OANDA:XAUUSD - The Fed held borrowing costs unchanged and continued to indicate it would deliver three rate cuts this year - The dovish policy outlook weighed on the U.S. dollar and yields, boosting gold prices For context, the FOMC kept borrowing costs at their current levels at its March gathering, reaffirming its intention to implement 75 basis points of easing in 2024. Wall Street, fearing a hawkish outcome in the face of growing inflation risks, breathed a sigh of relief at the institution’s restrained response. While there were some hawkish elements in the Fed’s guidance, such as the upward revision to the long-run equilibrium rate, traders chose to focus on the near-term future and the fact that the easing cycle is inching closer and looming on the horizon. With all that said, the main takeaway from the FOMC meeting was this: nothing has really changed for the central bank; plans to cut rates this year remain on track and the process to slow the pace of quantitative tightening is rapidly approaching, with Powell saying tapering could start “fairly soon”. Taking into account today’s developments, bond yields will struggle to move much higher in the near term, especially if incoming economic data starts cooperating with policymakers. This could prevent the U.S. dollar from extending its rebound in the coming days and weeks. Meanwhile, risk assets and precious metals such as gold and silver could be better positioned to maintain upward momentum heading into the second quarter. OANDA:XAUUSD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold surged on Wednesday, breaking past its previous record and notching a new all-time high above $2,220. With bulls seemingly in control of the market, a potential move towards trendline resistance at $2,225 is conceivable. On further strength, a rally above $2,250 cannot be ruled out. Conversely, if sellers stage a comeback and pullback, support looms at $2,195, the swing high from early March. Below this level, attention will turn to $2,150, followed by $2,090. Bulls must vigorously defend this technical floor; failure to do so will expose the 50-day simple moving average at $2,065. Resistance price ranges to note: 2225 - 2201 - 2189 - 2180 - 2175
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD goes down when the USD reverses to increase in priceGold price today, March 22, suddenly went down in the context of the USD reversing its price and US stocks rising sharply. After setting a record level of 2,211 USD/ounce in last night's trading session, today's world gold price plummeted 30 USD to 2,181 USD/ounce at 6:00 a.m. on March 22. Gold prices weakened today in the context of the Swiss National Bank suddenly reducing interest rates. Meanwhile. The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged. As a result, investors focus on holding USD, helping this currency increase in price, which is detrimental to the gold market. Another development is that after the US announced it was ready to reduce interest rates three times in 2024, the US stock market continued to increase sharply. Many people have moved their equity capital, causing very little money to flow into precious metals. Today's world gold price drops by dozens of USD/ounce, which is inevitable. After the Fed meeting, gold prices are expected to reach the resistance level at $2,222/ounce. If this level is surpassed, it is likely that prices will reach between $2,228 - $2,234/ounce. In the long term, the Fed plans to cut interest rates three times this year starting in June, which will lead to a decline in USD compared to other currencies. Resistance: 2188 - 2195 Support: 2172 - 2168 - 2152 - 2145
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD continued to decline compared to the previous sessionWorld gold spot price is around 2,165 USD/ounce, down more than 16 USD/ounce compared to the same time yesterday morning. Gold prices on the international market continue to decline because the USD has not stopped its rise. Specifically, the Dollar-Index - measuring the strength of the greenback compared to 6 major currencies, increased sharply by 0.42% to 104,075 points at 6:05 a.m. this morning. The USD benefited from positive economic and employment information in the US in February, despite the US Federal Reserve (Fed) announcing that it would reduce operating interest rates this year. The positive recovery of the US economy has helped investors escape capital from precious metals such as gold - an asset that ensures capital safety - to invest in profitable assets such as stocks and bonds. On March 21, the Dow Jones industrial index set a new peak, increasing nearly 0.7% to 39,781.37 points, the S&P 500 index increased 0.3% to 5,241.53 points, and the Nasdaq technology index Composite increased 0.2% to 16,401.84 points. Investors turned to investing in risky assets such as stocks, which shows that the market is somewhat reassured when the US economy remains strong despite interest rates remaining at a 20-year high and the Fed expected to cut reduce interest rates this year.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD remained motionless ahead of the Fed meetingThe Federal Reserve will announce its March monetary policy on Wednesday. Experts expect the benchmark rate to remain unchanged, along with the quantitative tightening program. The focus will be on forward guidance, with the Fed likely stating that they won't lower borrowing costs until there is more confidence in inflation reaching 2 percent. The Fed may raise its GDP and core PCE deflator forecasts due to economic resilience and persistent price pressures. This could lead to a reduction in expected rate cuts for 2024 from three to two. The following table shows projections from the December FOMC meeting. If the Federal Reserve signals a greater inclination to exercise patience before removing policy restraint and shows less willingness to deliver multiple rate cuts, we could see U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar charge upwards in the near term, extending their recent rebound. Meanwhile, stocks and gold, which have rallied strongly recently on the assumption that the central bank was on the cusp of pivoting to a looser stance, could be in for a rude awakening (bearish correction). Resistance: 2166 - 2175 - 2182 Support: 2146 - 2140 - 2137 - 2125
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1