Get started

Xayahtrading

Published weekly, PCE cools down but does not yet support GOLDAlthough PCE data shows inflation has cooled, gold prices OANDA:XAUUSD Still reversed Friday's gains and fell to close at $2,327/ounce. PCE data was in line with market expectations, but core PCE data was below analysts' expectations, suggesting inflation in the US is cooling faster than the market expected. So fundamentally the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates sooner rather than later increases. Lower interest rates tend to be positive for gold as they reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and precious metal prices increase following data releases. However, gold prices marked their weekly decline as the weekend trading session ended. Data that Fed officials received this week confirm that inflation remains on a bumpy but downward path, but policymakers are unlikely to change their view and are expected to continue continues to emphasize that they need to see more evidence of this. Government data released Friday showed the Federal Reserve's favored measure of core inflation cooled in April and rose at its slowest pace this year. First-quarter GDP growth was revised downward, with data showing a surprise drop in consumer spending in April. The reports painted a picture of the economy slowing, in line with what policymakers want to see, dispelling concerns that prices are rising rapidly, but officials may want to More such evidence in the coming weeks. Only then will the decision to cut interest rates have many prospects of being fundamentally realized. U.S. monthly headline PCE in April was in line with expectations at 0.3%, while annual headline PCE was also steady at 2.7%. Monthly core PCE fell to 0.2% in April from 0.3% in March and annual core PCE was unchanged at 2.8%. Personal income fell to 0.3%, down from 0.5% the previous month. Personal spending decreased from 0.7% to 0.2%. Chicago's PMI in May was 35.4, lower than the previous value of 37.9, significantly lower than the forecast of 41. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Fed Watch tool, federal funds futures pricing data shows a 45.2% probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in September and a 25% probability of a rate cut. basis points (bps) is 47%. Data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that during the week of May 28, net long positions in COMEX gold held by speculators fell by 14,751 contracts to 179,221 contracts. Fundamentally, it is clear that gold has certain conditions that support its ability to increase in price while macro data is still supporting the Fed to cut interest rates sooner. Lower interest rates increase the appeal of precious metals, especially gold. Noteworthy data and events next week Monday: US ISM manufacturing PMI, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Wednesday: US ADP Employment Change, Bank of Canada interest rate decision, ISM services PMI Thursday: European Central Bank interest rate decision, US initial jobless claims Friday: US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Data Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, although gold has had multiple recovery sessions from technical levels that acted as support for readers' attention throughout the previous issue at the price point of 2,324USD; but recoveries are limited by the 21-day moving average (EMA21), and EMA21 is also the current closest technical resistance. The weekly close was also right at the nearest support level at $2,324, a support level that has powered previous rallies but it has also been tested quite a few times and once it broke below, gold There are conditions to continue to reduce more with the target level then being around 2,305 - 2,300 USD. The RSI strength index is pointing down without reaching the oversold area, which shows that there is still technical room to the downside so the best possible area to start buying should be around 30% of the index. this newspaper. The case where the gold price has enough conditions to recover further is when it can surpass the EMA21. In the near future, in terms of technical factors, gold will lean more towards a bearish outlook. And the notable technical levels will be listed again as follows. Support: 2,324 – 2,305 – 2,300USD Resistance: 2,340 – 2,353USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2346 - 2344 ⚰️SL: 2350 ⬆️TP1: 2339 ⬆️TP2: 2334 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2299 - 2301 ⚰️SL: 2295 ⬆️TP1: 2306 ⬆️TP2: 2311
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
3
GOLD rises but limited by EMA21, pay attention to ADP and NFPThe US manufacturing industry lost more momentum and increasingly fell into a state of contraction. This data led to an increase in interest rate cut expectations, the US Dollar and US Treasury bond yields fell, and the gold market regained momentum and remained around 2,350 USD/ounce. On Monday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) announced that the US manufacturing index fell to 48.7% in May, down from 49.2% in April. The data was weaker than expected, with consensus predicting the index will improve slightly to 49.8. The gold market has seen some initial buying momentum as it recovers from lows, disappointing economic data has created fresh buying in the market. Markets increasingly expect that the slowing economy will force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, even as inflation remains relatively high, higher than the Fed's target of level 2 inflation. %. The market expects an 82% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in November. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank will almost certainly cut interest rates by 0.25% to 3.75% on Thursday, likely potentially become the first major central bank to cut interest rates this cycle. Investors are now looking forward to the ADP jobs report on Wednesday and US nonfarm payrolls data on Friday. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold recovered again and maintained price activity above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, which can be considered a positive signal. However, the recovery momentum is also limited by the 21-day moving average (EMA21). As noted to readers in previous publications, in order for the gold price to have more basis for its rising prospects, it needs to bring price activity above EMA21, then the short-term target level is noticed. at original price of 2,400 USD. Temporarily, at the present time, the gold price is not yet qualified to increase in price, but on the other hand, the short-term technical trend is more inclined towards the possibility of price decrease. And notable technical points will be listed as follows. Support: 2,340 – 2,324USD Resistance: 2,353USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2376 - 2374 ⚰️SL: 2380 ⬆️TP1: 2369 ⬆️TP2: 2364 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2324 - 2326 ⚰️SL: 2320 ⬆️TP1: 2331 ⬆️TP2: 2336
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD continuing downtrendOANDA:XAUUSD reached a peak of $2,450 in May but has since fallen over 4%. This shift indicates a change in investor sentiment, with bullish investors likely seeking other opportunities. The weakness in gold may persist due to factors like inflation and the US central bank's restrictive stance. Traders watching short positions should pay attention to the $2,335 support zone. This area combines important technical indicators, such as a key trendline and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the March-May rally. If the price decisively falls below $2,335 with above-average trading volume, it would be a strong selling signal. If the price drops below $2,335, the next important level to watch is the 50-day simple moving average at $2,325. Breaking this support could lead to a further decline, with potential downside targets around $2,265, which is a critical Fibonacci level near this month's lowest point. If bulls regain control and prices rise, resistance at $2,365 and $2,377 may pose a challenge. However, surpassing this level could change bearish sentiment and potentially lead to a rally towards $2,420. Further strength could even bring the all-time high back into play.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD moves sideways ahead of Fed's favorite inflation dataDuring the trading session on the Asian market on Friday (May 31), spot gold decreased slightly, currently at 2,339 USD/ounce. On this trading day, investors will receive the most important economic data of the week, US PCE inflation data, which is expected to stimulate the market trend. Gold prices recovered some of Wednesday's losses on Thursday after the US gross domestic product (GDP) showed the economy was slowing. US GDP data has revived hopes that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates later this year. Data released by the US Department of Commerce on Thursday showed that the US quarterly real GDP rate in the first quarter was 1.3%, below the previous baseline value of 1.3%. .6%, reflecting lower-than-expected consumer spending. Personal spending, the main growth driver of the US economy, increased by 2.0%, compared to the previous initial value of 2.5%. The U.S. Department of Labor reported Thursday that 219,000 people filed for unemployment benefits in the week ended May 25, compared with expectations of 218,000 and a previous figure of 215,000. U.S. economic growth was slower than in the fourth quarter of last year, suggesting that higher borrowing costs set by the Federal Reserve are having an impact on the economy. Meanwhile, the US Department of Labor revealed that the number of people applying for unemployment benefits is increasing. These two factors have weakened the Dollar in the short term. Today (Friday), US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price data for April will be released. Surveys show that the US PCE price index in April is expected to increase 0.3% monthly and increase 2.7% year-on-year. In terms of more important core data, surveys show that the US core PCE price index for April is expected to increase 0.3% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year. . As the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, year-over-year changes in the core PCE price index have a larger impact on policymakers which in turn impacts the underlying trend of gold prices. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Technically, gold is still mainly moving sideways due to the lack of a fundamental impact to create a surge, but overall, it has the conditions to decrease in price due to price activity below EMA21 and an uptrend. in the medium term was broken before. Although the recovery from the technical level of 2,324 USD was noticeable to readers in yesterday's edition, it is also limited by the EMA21, and for gold to be eligible to continue its recovery, it needs to at least reach Price activity is above the 21-day moving average (EMA21). On the other hand, gold is likely to fall more towards $2,305 – $2,300 once $2,324 is broken below. During the day, the technical trend of gold price leans more towards the possibility of price decline with notable levels being listed as follows. Support: 2,324 – 2,305 – 2,300USD Resistance: 2,345 – 2,353USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2376 - 2374 ⚰️SL: 2380 ⬆️TP1: 2369 ⬆️TP2: 2364 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2306 - 2308 ⚰️SL: 2301 ⬆️TP1: 2313 ⬆️TP2: 2318
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GBPZAR rise strong but momentum is near oversold levels The British Pound strengthens against the rand, trading above 24.00 once again. Similar to USD/ZAR, it is also trading above the 200 SMA and approaching the February swing high of 24.59. However, caution is advised as the RSI indicator suggests a potential pullback due to previous instances of oversold conditions. Considering the ongoing coalition talks, a negative outcome could lead to further depreciation of the rand. Resistance is at 24.59 and support is around 23.54 (200 SMA).
by Xayah_trading
Get support from Middle East, GOLD recovers, bound by EMA21Complicated geopolitical developments are counterbalancing the Fed's recent stance to support gold prices. On the one hand, the Fed strengthens the Dollar compared to other major currencies. On the other hand, gold is also supported. Support when potential market risks are likely to flare up and increase the attractiveness of Precious Metals that do not generate yields. Notable news in the Middle East According to the British news network "Middle East Eye", citing Israeli media on May 27, Egyptian and Israeli soldiers exchanged fire at the Rafah border gate on the border between Egypt and the Gaza Strip that day. An Egyptian soldier died in the fire. The incident was first reported by Israel's Channel 13 and Channel 14, which they called "unusual". Regarding details of the incident, it was reported that Egyptian soldiers opened fire on an Israeli truck at the Rafah intersection and Israeli soldiers returned fire. But this statement has not been officially confirmed. Amid the deteriorating situation in Rafah, this news sent safe-haven gold rapidly higher. However, gold also needs more of these types of impacts to reach its original price of $2,400. Egypt's independent English-language newspaper Daily News cited sources as saying Egyptian soldiers were affected by last Sunday's "Rafa massacre", in which Israeli bombings destroyed a refugee camp in Rafah, killing 45 Palestinians. The Israel Defense Forces said a "shooting incident occurred" on the Egyptian border early Monday morning and that it was investigating the incident and that "dialogue with Egypt is ongoing." A spokesman for the Egyptian Armed Forces also confirmed the exchange of fire late Monday, saying that an Egyptian soldier was killed in the incident. In addition to closely monitoring the situation taking place in the Middle East, traders also need to pay attention to developments from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, etc. Basically, traders need to pay attention to everything. Regardless of any major geopolitical developments happening globally, gold is an asset that easily reacts to sudden news on the market. In recent history, the US-China Trade War, developments in the Middle East at the end of 2019, the Ukraine conflict, and now continuing the war in the Middle East... have all created huge mutations in the world. gold market. During this trading year, we “traders” need to get used to gold moving 2-3% or more in a day, which will happen even more frequently in the near future. Every time a conflict shows signs of escalation, the price of gold creates a new era peak! Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold is trying to operate around the EMA21 level as it recovers from the technical level of $2,324, which readers noticed in last Friday's edition. However, the recovery momentum is limited with EMA21. For the gold price to technically qualify for upside, it would at least need to break out and return to operating above the trend and near-term target level followed by the 0.236 trend-following Fibonacci extension %, more than the original price of 2,400USD. Meanwhile, gold is at risk of a further decline if it sells off below the $2,324 support level with a target then around $2,305 – $2,300. Therefore, open long positions should be considered protecting behind the $2,324 level as a reasonable position. During the day, the trend of gold price is neutral with price activity intentionally sticking around the EMA21, and the technical levels of interest will be listed as follows. Support: 2,345 – 2,324USD Resistance: 2,384 – 2,400USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2389 - 2387 ⚰️SL: 2393 ⬆️TP1: 2382 ⬆️TP2: 2377 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2345 - 2347 ⚰️SL: 2341 ⬆️TP1: 2352 ⬆️TP2: 2357
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD recovered to EMA21, Middle East situation tense On the Asian market on Monday (May 27), gold was delivered immediately OANDA:XAUUSD increase rapidly in the short term. Gold price touched 2,347 USD/ounce, setting a session high and increasing strongly by more than 13 USD during the day. OANDA:XAUUSD The gains were supported by a weaker US Dollar and rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Tuesday's speeches by Fed officials Bowman, Mester and Kashkari will be closely watched. Affected by the Memorial Day/Spring Bank Holiday, US and UK stock markets will be closed for one day on May 27; CME Group's U.S. crude oil futures and precious metals trading will be suspended at 01:30 Hanoi time on May 28. Gold will get more data from speeches by Fed officials on Tuesday, including those from Bowman, Mester and Kashkari. The US's first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) released on Thursday will be the focus, with GDP expected to grow 1.5% in the first quarter. Stronger-than-expected data could boost the Dollar and continue to pressure gold, whereas weaker-than-expected data would see gold supported and the Dollar weaker. In terms of the fundamental picture, gold is receiving some support that could be transformative as the geopolitical situation becomes complicated again. Previous lessons show that every time the geopolitical situation becomes complicated and escalates, gold sets a new all-time peak. The Israeli army has conducted many air strikes! Killed about 200 people Early on the morning of May 27 local time, the Gaza Strip Media Office issued a statement saying that in the past 24 hours, the Israeli army conducted 10 attacks on 10 areas in the Gaza Strip such as Jebaliya, Nusayrat, and City. Gaza, and northwestern Rafah. Air strikes targeted evacuation centers run by multiple United Nations agencies, killing a total of about 200 people. A day earlier, the Qassan Brigades, an armed faction affiliated with Hamas, said it had launched a "massive rocket" attack on Tel Aviv, Israel, in response to the "massacre of civilians by the regime". Zionism". Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, receiving support from the $2,324 gold level rose quickly to test the $2,345 EMA21 price point which is also the short-term target recovery level sent to you in the weekly publication. Now, with the geopolitical situation becoming more complicated, once gold breaks out of the 21-day EMA and moves above the 21-day moving average and returns to the trend, it is well placed to continue. Technically bullish with a short-term target then aiming for the 0.236% Fibonacci extension and more to the original price of 2,400USD. On the other hand, EMA21 is also the nearest resistance, which provides expectations for the possibility of a price decrease with a target level at 2,324USD, more at 2,305USD. During the day, the technical outlook is still leaning towards the possibility of a price decrease in the case of qualifying for the above increase. Notable prices are listed below. Support: 2,324 – 2,305USD Resistance: 2,384 – 2,400USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2380 - 2378 ⚰️SL: 2384 ⬆️TP1: 2373 ⬆️TP2: 2368 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2306 - 2308 ⚰️SL: 2302 ⬆️TP1: 2313 ⬆️TP2: 2318
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD down 0.17%, focus on GDP and Williams' speechThe benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield increased more than 1% yesterday and is currently in the Asian trading session today May 30, also increasing 0.09% and surpassing 4.6%. , causing gold prices to lose support and continue to decline. Gold spot price OANDA:XAUUSD currently reported at around 2,334USD/oz, a decrease equivalent to 0.17% on the day. After the price of OANDA:XAUUSD reaching a new all-time high, it encountered a sell-off and fell back to more than 120 US Dollars an ounce from a high of 2,450 USD/ounce. The recent trend of the United States maintaining high interest rates for a longer period of time will support the US Dollar and high US bond yields, putting some pressure on the precious metals market. However, from a more general perspective if the Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates in the future, it will significantly support gold prices. In addition, with the support of factors such as central banks continuously increasing gold purchases and the increasing instability of the global geopolitical situation, the potential for gold prices to increase in the near future still remains. Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have made hawkish comments, stimulating demand for the dollar recently. As a result, market sentiment worsened and the US Dollar increased in value. Traders were still absorbing hawkish comments from Federal Reserve official Neel Kashkari on Tuesday. He said Fed officials are not ignoring interest rate hikes, adding that they could cut rates up to twice by the end of 2024 in case they do. This week, traders are preparing to release April's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. Core PCE is expected to increase 2.8% year-over-year, while overall PCE is expected to increase 0.3% month-over-month. If data shows a rise in inflation this will boost sentiment to keep interest rates high for longer. This situation is negative for gold prices because the opportunity cost of investing in non-yielding assets such as gold is increasing. This scenario will be beneficial for interest-earning assets and US Dollar yields. During this trading day, traders should also pay attention to the US GDP Index data, Initial Jobless Claims and Speech by FOMC member Williams. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After the gold price failed to break above the trend (a) note to readers in previous issues it came under pressure and fell back to test the initial notable support level at 2,324 USD. It is worth mentioning that the gold price has fallen below the EMA21 level, providing favorable conditions for a bearish outlook in the near future. If gold falls below the initial support at $2,324 it could continue to decline towards $2,305 – $2,300 in the short term. The relative strength index (RSI) is still pointing down without reaching the oversold level, which shows that there is still technical room for downside. Only when gold moves above the trend will it have enough conditions to continue to recover and increase in price. For the rest of the day, the technical outlook for gold prices leans towards the possibility of a decrease in price with notable positions being identified. listed as follows. Support: 2,324 – 2,305 – 2,300USD Resistance: 2,340 – 2,345 – 2,353USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2379 - 2377 ⚰️SL: 2383 ⬆️TP1: 2372 ⬆️TP2: 2367 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2306 - 2308 ⚰️SL: 2301 ⬆️TP1: 2313 ⬆️TP2: 2318
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
The franc recovered its lost ground, sending EURCHF lowerThe Swiss National Bank's departing Chairman, Thomas Jordan, believes that a weaker Swiss franc could affect inflation. His remarks led to the franc gaining strength and the EUR/CHF exchange rate dropping. The SNB was the first major central bank to cut interest rates in March, causing the franc to depreciate. However, this depreciation halted in May with the emergence of an evening star pattern. Currently, the EUR/CHF pair is biased towards a decline and has broken below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). The next points of interest are the channel support, followed by 0.9694 and the 200 SMA at 0.9565.
by Xayah_trading
GOLD fell last week, the market will pay attention to PCEAlthough central bank buying and strong Asian demand have created a long-term fundamental bullish trend for gold, OANDA:XAUUSD , but uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy continues to create large short-term fluctuations, mainly with mixed pressure to strengthen the US Dollar's position. Gold prices rose to a record high above $2,450 an ounce earlier this week as the market began to consolidate expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice this year. However, the breakout to create a new all-time high was short-lived as gold prices fell more than $100 this week. Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting showed hawkish sentiment, with the central bank reluctant to cut interest rates as inflationary pressures remain high. The meeting minutes stated: "Participants noted that first-quarter inflation data were disappointing and that various indicators pointed to strong economic growth. They estimated that it would take a long time." than previously expected to get inflation closer to 2%.” The minutes also noted that some committee members were willing to raise interest rates if inflation continued to escalate. This news has delayed interest rate cut expectations and November could replace September as the date for the first rate cut. This change has pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher and the U.S. dollar stronger, thereby hitting non-yielding precious metal prices. Gold market OANDA:XAUUSD will be very sensitive to inflation data next week The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, will be released next Friday. Signs of easing price pressures could revive hopes of a Fed rate cut, pushing gold prices higher. If the PCE report is higher than market expectations, it will continue to provide another source of "energy" that has a negative impact on the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, causing gold prices to fall even more. While Friday's inflation data will be the main focus in the economic week ahead, broader financial markets will also be closely watching the latest US GDP and consumer confidence data. Notable economic data and events next week Tuesday: Conference Board consumer confidence index Thursday: Preliminary US Q1 GDP, weekly jobless claims, pending home sales Friday: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and US Personal Income and Expenditures Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Although the gold price has recovered from the technical level of 2,324 USD noted by readers in the last issue, the recovery momentum was soon defeated by the horizontal resistance level of 2,345 USD, the price point marked with moderate attention. horizontal resistance and also the price point of EMA21. As long as it cannot break and move above EMA21, it is still not technically eligible to increase in price. For gold price to be eligible to increase in price, it at least needs to operate above EMA21 and return. above the trend line again, this is also considered resistance, creating technical pressure on gold prices at the present time. In case the aforementioned resistance confluence area is broken above, gold has the opportunity to rally further and head towards the 0.236% Fibonacci levels and the $2,400 level in the short term. On the other hand, if the $2,324 horizontal support level is broken below gold could continue to decline more to the 2,304 level and more to the $2,300 raw price level in the short term. Technically, the gold price is in more favorable conditions for the possibility of a price decrease, while the Relative Strength Index is pointing down without reaching the oversold level, this shows that gold still has room to fall. Notable prices will be listed as follows. Support: 2,324 – 2,304 – 2,300USD Resistance: 2,345USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2371 - 2369 ⚰️SL: 2375 ⬆️TP1: 2364 ⬆️TP2: 2359 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2289 - 2291 ⚰️SL: 2285 ⬆️TP1: 2296 ⬆️TP2: 2301
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD is breaking bullish structure, pay special attention to FedOANDA:XAUUSD fell to its lowest level in 2 weeks when demand for the US Dollar in the market recovered. A Federal Reserve rate cut in September is looking less and less likely, which is causing some selling pressure on gold. Investors will focus on today's (Friday) speech by Federal Reserve Governor Waller, US durable goods orders and the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index report. Strong U.S. economic data pushed U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar higher, which in turn weighed on gold prices. S&P Global said the US Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which tracks manufacturing and services sector activity, rose to 54.4 in May, its highest level since April 2022. Other data released on Thursday showed the number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the US fell to 215,000 last week, the biggest two-week drop since last September. Minutes from a Federal Reserve meeting released Wednesday showed that officials still believe price pressures will gradually ease over at least the next few months, but some officials said they were ready to support spending increases. borrowing costs if inflation spikes. Notable data and events of the day Fed Governor Waller is scheduled to speak on Friday. Hawkish comments from Federal Reserve policymakers could put pressure on gold prices. It's worth noting that higher interest rates typically hurt gold prices because they increase the opportunity cost of investing in gold. In addition, US durable goods orders and the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index will also be published. The preliminary value of US durable goods orders for April will be published, with the monthly rate expected to decrease by 0.8 %, after increasing 2.6% in March. The final value of the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index for May will be announced and is expected to be 67.5. Fed Governor John Waller, who has been hawkish on the Fed's rate-hike cycle, said Tuesday that he would need to see good inflation data for several more months before starting to cut rates. “In the absence of significant weakness in the labor market, I would need to see good inflation data for several more months before I feel comfortable making a move,” Waller said at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. support the loose monetary policy stance." Waller and other Fed officials have recently emphasized that the central bank may need to keep interest rates steady for longer than previously expected. Policymakers have not adjusted the benchmark interest rate, currently at a 23-year high, since last July. Fundamentally, traders need to pay special attention to the speech of Fed Governor Waller, who is a hawkish Fed official and Waller is very likely to follow up with further comments. causing pressure on gold prices. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold broke most of the key technical levels and broke the technical structure that favors the upside. The drop below the trend and EMA21 is providing further downside risk to gold prices. In the immediate future, gold has a support at the technical level of 2,325 USD, and in case this technical level continues to be broken, gold will be eligible to move towards the level of 2,305 - 2,300 USD in the short term. The relative strength index (RSI) is pointing down but is still far from the oversold area, suggesting that gold prices still have room to decline further on the daily chart. From the technical level of 2,325 USD, the possibility of technical recovery is also limited by the EMA21 level which is currently the closest resistance, noticed by the technical point of 2,344 USD. During the day, gold's technical outlook leans more bearish with limited recovery and notable price levels are listed below. Support: 2,324 – 2,305USD Resistance: 2,344USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2370 - 2368 ⚰️SL: 2374 ⬆️TP1: 2363 ⬆️TP2: 2358 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2288 - 2290 ⚰️SL: 2284 ⬆️TP1: 2295 ⬆️TP2: 2300
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD corrects strongly, FOMC minutes, main trend areaGold fell sharply under pressure from profit-taking activities in the market and the Fed's (FOMC) meeting minutes. According to the Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes, although US monetary policy has become a secondary factor in the gold market, continued inflation could cause additional selling pressure as it could force The Federal Reserve must adjust its monetary policy, personally, the Fed is unlikely to increase gold interest rates again. Gold's rally cooled as investors took profits and traders cut bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this year. With the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, market expectations of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates continued to decline, leading to increased purchases of the US Dollar, making gold expensive. than for holders of other currencies. According to minutes from the U.S. central bank's April 30-May 1 meeting, Fed officials said it will take longer than previously expected to build confidence that inflation will pick up. 2%. OANDA:XAUUSD is known as an inflation hedge, but the opportunity cost of holding this non-yielding asset increases as interest rates rise. Recent economic data shows inflation trending downward, but Fed policymakers said the central bank should wait a few more months to ensure inflation actually returns to its 2% target first. when cutting interest rates. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after gold broke through most of the key technical levels and it is now also in a key price area for a technical bullish outlook with a long-term downtrend and moving averages 21 days (EMA21). In the immediate future, if the gold price returns above the 0.236% Fibonacci level, it will have enough conditions to recover with a short-term uptrend from the price channel. During the day, the trend of gold price is still downtrend with notable technical levels that will be listed as follows. Support: 2,366 – 2,353USD Resistance: 2,384 – 2,400 – 2,410USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2406 - 2404 ⚰️SL: 2410 ⬆️TP1: 2399 ⬆️TP2: 2394 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2344 - 2346 ⚰️SL: 2340 ⬆️TP1: 2351 ⬆️TP2: 2356
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
Continue to adjust, pay attention to $2,400 level, FOMC minutesIn the Asian market on May 22, spot gold suddenly dropped in the short term but did not affect the main trend. Gold price fell sharply from the highest level of the session as of the time this article was completed, which was 2,426 USD/oz, and set a new intraday low at 2,412 USD/oz. OANDA:XAUUSD fell from record highs earlier this week as the Federal Reserve became cautious about cutting interest rates. However, geopolitical risks in the Middle East still boost safe-haven demand, which could limit the decline in gold prices. Fed Governor John Waller said Tuesday that it will take "several more months" of good inflation data before considering an interest rate cut. Atlanta Fed President Bostic said Tuesday he is in no rush to cut interest rates but wants to wait longer to ensure inflation doesn't start to fluctuate. Fed officials warned the Fed needs more evidence that inflation is easing before it starts cutting interest rates, emphasizing that the Fed could keep interest rates high for a longer period of time. This could boost the US Dollar and put gold prices in US Dollars under pressure. Gold's decline may be limited amid US-China trade tensions, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and strong demand from central banks and buyers in Asia, which could support gold subsidy. Later in the trading day on Wednesday, gold traders will closely monitor the minutes of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and Goolsby's speech from Federal Reserve officials. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has adjusted down, but the downward adjustments are not damaging the main uptrend with the uptrend from the short-term price channel and the main uptrend trend. During the day, the uptrend in gold prices will be noticed by support levels from 2,410 – 2,400 USD and as long as gold remains in the price channel, it will still have a technical upside prospect. Even if gold is sold off below the 0.236% Fibonacci extension, the decline will still be limited by support from the trend and EMA21. Overall assessment, the technical picture for gold prices will continue to lean towards the possibility of price increase with short-term technical levels noted as follows. Support: 2,410 – 2,400USD Resistance: 2,430 – 2,450USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2443 - 2441 ⚰️SL: 2447 ⬆️TP1: 2436 ⬆️TP2: 2431 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2396 - 2398 ⚰️SL: 2392 ⬆️TP1: 2403 ⬆️TP2: 2408
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD corrects, uptrend remains stable, market newsOn the Asian market, gold is delivered immediately OANDA:XAUUSD suddenly dropped sharply from the session's high of 2,433.13 USD/ounce. Gold price has just touched 2,410 USD/ounce, setting the lowest level of the day as of the time this article was completed. News of the death of the Iranian president has increased tensions in the region and gold prices have increased due to safe-haven demand. However, comments from Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Michael Barr put pressure on gold prices. Barr, the Fed vice chairman for regulatory affairs, said Monday that interest rates will need to remain at current levels for longer to bring inflation back to the sustainable target level. “The Fed needs to give tightening policy more time to continue to work,” Barr said. New geopolitical news in the Middle East New news from the Middle East situation on May 20, the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court applied for an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Galante on suspicion of war crimes. According to the prosecutor's statement, prosecutors have "reasonable grounds to believe" that Prime Minister Netanyahu and Israeli Defense Minister Galante are responsible for the "war crimes and counterattacks" that occurred. in the Gaza Strip “from at least October 8, 2023”. Traders are monitoring developments in the Middle East after Iran's president and foreign minister were killed in a helicopter crash. Additionally, in Saudi Arabia, OPEC's largest oil producer, King Salman is being treated for a lung infection. In general, the market is lacking truly notable developments that create significant fluctuations, so gold is likely to correct, but in terms of the overall picture, although gold prices are limited in their upward momentum by comments from officials. Fed, but it still has a lot of fundamental room to increase prices. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has corrected significantly from its new all-time high set yesterday, a correction that was also price point to the 0.382% trend-following Fibonacci extension. However, the gold price still has an uptrend mainly from trend and a short-term uptrend from price channel and all the support and technical conditions support the possibility of price increase. Once gold breaks the 0.382% Fibonacci extension level, it will continue to open a new bullish cycle with a new era high targeted at the 0.50% Fibonacci point. As long as gold remains above the original price point of 2,400 USD and the 0.236% Fibonacci level along the price channel, it still has short-term bullish prospects. During the day, the uptrend in technical gold prices will be noticed again by the following price levels. Support: 2,400 – 2,398USD Resistance: 2,422 – 2,430USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2457 - 2455 ⚰️SL: 2461 ⬆️TP1: 2450 ⬆️TP2: 2445 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2389 - 2391 ⚰️SL: 2385 ⬆️TP1: 2396 ⬆️TP2: 2401
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
EURUSD trended lower on ThursdayEURUSD trended lower on Thursday after an unsuccessful attempt to clear the resistance at 1.0725, with prices moving back towards the 1.0700 handle. Traders should closely monitor this support area in the coming days, as a break below it could trigger a pullback towards 1.0645 and potentially even 1.0600. In the event of a bullish reversal from current levels, the first technical ceiling worth keeping an eye on in the near term is situated at 1.0725, followed by 1.0755. Further upward momentum will draw attention to the 1.0800 zone, where the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages currently intersect.
by Xayah_trading
EURUSD is at risk when the ECB lowers interest ratesBULLISH US DOLLAR FORECAST OANDA:EURUSD - The mighty dollar is back as CPI data impacts policy paths - EURUSD at risk after the ECB laid out the conditions for lowering rates THE MIGHTY DOLLAR IS BACK AS CPI DATA IMPACTS POLICY PATHS The US dollar is back in the FX market following strong CPI data, leading to a reevaluation of the world's reserve currency. The data was released on Wednesday, with prices trading above key levels and indicating a potential for the dollar to quickly close the gap, which it did. The dollar index has surged, breaking through resistance levels as markets predict fewer interest rate cuts this year. This suggests only one cut is expected before the end of the year. The dollar is expected to remain strong due to the anticipated escalation in the Middle East following US President Joe Biden's announcement of an imminent attack by Iran in response to Israel's strike on an Iranian embassy in Damascus. OANDA:EURUSD AT RISK AFTER THE ECB LAID OUT THE CONDITIONS FOR LOWERING RATES The ECB statement confirmed that the governing council will not pre-commit to any rate path but will respond to incoming data. Prominent ECB officials have expressed a preference for a June cut. The statement brought joy to the doves as it acknowledged the potential for interest rates to be lowered if inflation dynamics align with target goals. EURUSD broke through key technical levels including the 50 and 200-day SMAs, the 38.2% Fib retracement, and the psychological level of 1.0700. The close below the 23.6% Fib retracement suggests a possible move towards the 2023 low. However, the pair is nearing oversold territory (RSI), which may pose a challenge to further downward movement. The EURUSD is expected to weaken in the medium term, but in the meantime, it may slightly ease back due to oversold conditions and lack of impactful US economic data next week. A positive ZEW figure could help the euro recover some recent losses as sentiment and confidence indices improve.
by Xayah_trading
EURUSD has bearish conditions, important confluenceAt the latest policy meeting, the ECB decided to keep interest rates unchanged but left no doubt about its intention to move to more easing. The guidance prompted traders to increase bets that the organization led by Christine Lagarde will launch an easing campaign at the next monetary policy meeting in June. The prospect of the ECB being ahead of the Fed on monetary easing could be detrimental to EUR/USD in the short term. Just a few weeks ago, there were signs that the FOMC could also act in June, but a series of hotter-than-expected US inflation measures and labor market data have skewed this scenario. , causing a repricing of interest rate expectations and benefiting the US Dollar. On the daily chart, OANDA:EURUSD there are technical conditions that fully support the possibility of a bearish price with the main trend formed from price channel (a) and maintaining price activity below the EMA21 level. While EUR/USD's decline may temporarily be limited by the support confluence of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement and the lower edge of the price channel (a) along with the 1.06367 horizontal support, it still has plenty of room to fall. Technical price. A new bearish cycle could be opened once the lower edge of price channel (a) is broken below with the target level then around 1.05232 in the short term. Upward corrections, as long as they do not break the technical points 1.06854 – 1.07234, EUR/USD still has a short-term decline prospect, and these are also considered targets for short-term correction recovery. Looking ahead, EUR/USD still has the main technical trend to the downside and notable technical levels will be listed as follows. Support: 1.06423 – 1.05232 Resistance: 1.06954 – 1.07234
by Xayah_trading
EURUSD advanced on MondayEURUSD advanced on Monday, clearing both its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages near 1.0785. If this bullish breakout is sustained, overhead resistance stretches from 1.0805 to 1.0810. While overcoming this barrier may pose a challenge for bulls, a move beyond it could lead to relatively clear sailing towards 1.0865, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 2023 selloff. Conversely, if sellers mount a comeback and drive the pair below the previously mentioned simple moving average indicators, sentiment towards the euro could start souring, creating the right conditions for a pullback towards 1.0725 and 1.0695 thereafter. Additional losses below this crucial floor could trigger a descent towards 1.0650, May’s trough.
by Xayah_trading
EURUSD remained subdued late in the weekEURUSD remained subdued late in the week, unable to sustain its upward momentum after Wednesday’s bullish breakout, with the exchange rate seesawing but holding steady above 1.0865. Bulls need to keep prices above this area to prevent a resurgence of sellers; failure to do so could result in a pullback toward 1.0810/1.0800. On the other hand, if buying momentum resurfaces and the pair moves higher again, overhead resistance can be spotted near 1.0980, a key technical barrier defined by the March swing high. Should the pair continue to strengthen beyond this point, buyers might gain confidence and target 1.1020, a dynamic trend line extending from the 2023 peak.
by Xayah_trading
EURUSD traded quite quietlyEURUSD trades in somewhat of a tepid fashion but has a slight lean to the downside after bouncing off channel resistance. There was always a good chance that the dollar would recover some of its losses in a quieter week as the FX market tends to favour higher yielding currencies under less volatile conditions. The pair approached overbought conditions but reversed course before actually breaching the marker. The last time this was observed was back in March when an extended period of selling ensued. Resistance remains at the upper limit of the ascending channel while support rests at the channel support, followed by the psychological level of 1.0800 and the 200 day simple moving average thereafter. EURUSD trading seeks a catalyst that may only arrive towards the latter stages of next week when US PCE as well as German and EU inflation data is due.
by Xayah_trading
Hawkish RBNZ meeting buoys NZDUSDThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has warned about high domestic inflation despite having one of the highest interest rates among major central banks. The committee discussed raising rates but acknowledged that the economy can't handle it. As a result, markets have postponed expectations of a rate cut to November. The NZD/USD has been steadily rising since April, even after breaking above the longer-term trendline resistance. While the Kiwi dollar is approaching overbought conditions, there is still potential for short-term gains. The next major resistance level is at 0.6200, but first, a test of yesterday's high at 0.6152 is needed. If there is a pullback, prices could settle around the 0.6050 level, which aligns with the 200 SMA.
by Xayah_trading