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GOLD is stable, trading day with lots of big data and eventsOn the Asian market on Wednesday (December 4), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery is basically stable, gold price is currently around 2,644 USD/ounce. In New York trading on Tuesday, gold hit a daily high as South Korea's martial law boosted safe-haven demand. South Korean President Yoon Seok-yue gave an emergency speech at the Yongsan Presidential Office in Seoul on Tuesday evening local time and issued an emergency martial law order. After this news arrived, spot gold soared to 2,655.64 USD/ounce. Gold prices then gave up gains when South Korean President Yoon Seok-yue announced the lifting of martial law. As of the end of Tuesday, spot gold increased 0.2%, closing at 2,643.38 USD/ounce. On this trading day, there are multiple event risks in the US, including the ADP employment report, ISM services PMI, Federal Reserve Begie Book and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech . Among them, the ADP jobs report and Powell's speech attracted the most attention. Today (Wednesday), US ADP employment change data for November will be released. This data is known as “small non-farm” and is expected to create a significant impact in the market. Surveys show that US ADP employment is expected to increase by 150,000 in November. Previously, US ADP employment increased by 233,000 in October. On the same day, the US ISM non-manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) for November will be published and is expected to be 55.5. Fed President St. Louis Mussallem will give a speech. On Thursday, the Federal Reserve will release Begie Bôk on economic conditions. On Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will be invited for an interview at the DealBook/Summit conference hosted by the New York Times. In his final speech in November, Powell said the Fed was in no rush to cut interest rates, citing a solid job market and inflation remaining above its 2% target. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is still in a state of prolonged accumulation with price activity mainly sticking around the 21-day moving average (EMA21) and the technical point of 2,644USD. Although gold has recovered after the previous decline, the overall picture is still inclined to decrease in price with the main trend from the price channel, on the other hand, pressure is still created from EMA21 along with activity. of the Relative Strength Index RSI remains below 50. These factors provide gold with conditions for a bearish trend. As long as gold remains within the price channel, its technical outlook remains tilted to the downside and rallies should be considered short-term recoveries. On the other hand, if gold is sold below the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level it will likely continue to decline to a subsequent target of around $2,606 – $2,600. In addition, a new bearish cycle will be opened once gold is sold below the original price of 2,600 USD. During the day, the bearish technical outlook for gold will be noticed by the following points. Support: 2,634 – 2,606 – 2,600USD Resistance: 2,663USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2681 - 2679⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2685 →Take Profit 1 2674 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2669 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2599 - 2601⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2595 →Take Profit 1 2606 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2611
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD traded steadily, notable events and data during the dayOn the Asian market on Tuesday (December 3), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery is basically stable, gold price is currently around 2,640 USD/ounce. Notable economic data and events on this trading day Today (Tuesday), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). This important employment data is expected to cause large fluctuations in gold prices this trading day. Economists predict that there will be 7.51 million JOLT vacancies in the United States in October, compared with 7.443 million in September, the lowest level since the beginning of 2021. The JOLTS job vacancy report was one of the labor force indicators that U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen valued most when she was chair of the Federal Reserve. This index is also labor market data that the Fed is very interested in. Gold traders will also be watching for speeches by Federal Reserve officials. On Wednesday, Fed Governor Coogler will give a speech on the labor market and monetary policy. Chicago Fed President Goolsby will give a speech. More information Trump urged BRICS countries not to try to replace the dollar and threatened to impose 100% tariffs if they did not comply. Trump's comments raised concerns that US interest rates will remain high for a long time and this will not be beneficial for non-yielding gold. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, there are almost no structural changes as gold is still maintaining very modest price activity due to the lack of fundamental breakthroughs. In terms of factors, gold is facing more pressure with the nearest horizontal resistance at 2,644 USD along with the 21-day Moving Average (EMA21), in addition, the main trend currently dominating is the downward trend. by price channel. In the short term, if gold is sold below the 0.618% Fibonacci level, it will have conditions to decrease further with a subsequent target of around 2,606 - 2,600USD, which means the nearest support in the short term is also the 0.618 Fibonacci level. % price point 2,634USD. The relative strength index is still operating below the 50 level, although it is mostly moving sideways but this should also be considered a negative technical signal. During the day, the technical outlook leans towards the possibility of price decline with notable points listed as follows. Support: 2,634 – 2,606 – 2,600USD Resistance: 2,644 – 2,663USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2661 - 2659⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2665 →Take Profit 1 2654 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2649 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2579 - 2581⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2575 →Take Profit 1 2586 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2591
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD's recovery is limited, pay attention to this week's dataOANDA:XAUUSD remained stable above 2,600 USD last week, mainly supported by rising geopolitical tensions, but after Donald Trump won the US Presidential election, gold was still under pressure to restrain the possibility of price increases in terms of price. Basically because the USD will be supported by Trump's victory. Regarding gold's latest recovery, after US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data released earlier this week was in line with expectations, market expectations of an interest rate cut in May 12 by the Federal Reserve increased, pushing gold prices higher. Currently, the market is pricing in a roughly 66% probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, a significant increase from more than 50% a week ago. Geopolitical tensions in Europe caused by Russia's missile attack on Ukraine also provided support for safe-haven assets such as gold. The Israeli military said its air force on Thursday attacked a facility in southern Lebanon used by Hezbollah to store medium-range missiles, as the two sides accused each other of violating a ceasefire despite the agreement. previous agreement. Russia on Thursday launched its second major attack this month on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, causing widespread power outages in the country. Gold is often seen as a safe investment during times of economic and geopolitical instability. Gold prices have fallen about 3% this month and hit a two-month low on November 14. This is mainly because the US Dollar has strengthened since Trump was elected and his tariff policies are believed to be likely to push up inflation, thereby slowing down the cycle of US interest rate cuts. Federal Reserve. This week the US will release key economic data including job vacancies, the ADP jobs report and the nonfarm payrolls report, which could provide guidance on the Fed's policy outlook. Economic data to watch out for this week Monday: ISM manufacturing PMI Wednesday: ADP Working Data, ISM Services PMI, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will participate in a panel discussion at the New York Times DealBook Summit Wednesday Thursday: Claim weekly unemployment assistance Friday: US nonfarm payrolls report, preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold is trying to recover but is still limited by the 0.50% Fibonacci level and EMA21. Note to readers in yesterday's edition. In terms of overall structure, gold is still inclined to a bearish outlook with the main trend from the price channel, main resistance from EMA21, while the Relative Strength Index has not yet been able to surpass 50. Because So in terms of trends and dynamics, gold still has the prospect of decreasing in price more than increasing. As long as gold remains within the price channel, it does not technically have enough room for a long-term rally, so rallies should only be considered short-term rallies. In the immediate future, if gold falls below the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level, the next downside target will be noticed at around the original price of 2,600 USD. In summary, the technical outlook on the daily chart of gold prices leans to the downside with notable highlights listed as follows. Support: 2,606 – 2,600USD Resistance: 2,663 – 2,693USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2651 - 2649⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2655 →Take Profit 1 2644 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2639 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2579 - 2581⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2575 →Take Profit 1 2586 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2591
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
1
Oil focus on EIA data and OPEC+ meetingTVC:USOIL increased slightly during the Asian trading session on Monday (December 2), trading around 68.30 USD/barrel. Market volatility has continued to decrease and we need to wait for new changes in fundamental factors to shape the short-term trend. This week we will focus on EIA inventory data and the OPEC+ meeting. At the same time, this week will release US non-farm data. If non-farm data continues to strengthen, it will continue to put pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which will be detrimental to rising oil prices. Last week, as the geopolitical situation eased, pressure on the supply side eased and the market is now expecting that this OPEC+ meeting is expected to be postponed and increased production will support oil prices. On the geopolitical side, there are no significant new points. Lebanon's official news agency said on Friday that four Israeli tanks had entered Lebanese border villages. The ceasefire, which took effect last Wednesday, has reduced oil's hedging premium and sent oil prices tumbling despite accusations of ceasefire violations between the two sides. Although there are still many potential risks, the conflict in the Middle East has not disrupted oil supplies and oil supplies are expected to be more abundant in 2025. The International Energy Agency believes that there is a surplus of supply. is expected to exceed 1 million barrels/day, equivalent to more than 1% of global production. OPEC+ is expected to decide to continue extending production cuts at the upcoming meeting. With stagnant demand and oversupply, OPEC will face an uphill battle if it wants to push up oil prices. On the daily chart, TVC:USOIL The main long-term trend is still down with the price channel as the main trend, pressure from EMA21 and horizontal resistance levels around the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement point sent to readers in previous publications. . In the short term, WTI crude oil has enough room to continue falling with a target of around 66.44USD in the short term, more than 65.28USD. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index is also maintaining activity below or around the 50 level, which is considered a bearish signal with the target being the oversold area. As long as WTI crude oil remains at EMA21, it still has a bearish short-term technical outlook, and the trend from the price channel continues to trend in the long term. In the current daily chart, WTI crude oil has a downward trend with notable points listed as follows. Support: 66.44 – 65.28USD Resistance: 69.51 – 70.54USD
TVC:USOILShort
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Dec 02 - Dec 06]This week, international OANDA:XAUUSD fell quite sharply from 2,721 USD/oz to 2,605 USD/oz, then increased slightly and closed the week at 2,650 USD/oz. The reason why gold prices dropped sharply in the early sessions of this week was because President-elect Donald Trump nominated Mr. Scott Bessent, a traditional Wall Street financier, to hold the position of the US Treasury. The market expects Mr. Bessent to contribute to stabilizing the US economy and increasing the strength of the USD. Besides, a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, announced earlier this week, also eased worries about geopolitical tensions, reducing the appeal of gold as a safe haven. In particular, Mr. Trump threatened to impose a 25% tax on Mexican and Canadian goods imported into the US and proposed imposing a 10% tax on all products from China, also increasing concerns about a tariff war. , causing the FED to delay reducing interest rates, or even increase interest rates again. In addition, the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE) in November still increased by 2.8% over the same period last year, higher than forecast and much higher than the FED's target of 2%. This may make the FED more cautious in continuing to cut interest rates in the short term. Many people believe that the gold market will have some unpredictable fluctuations in the near future as it continuously reacts to Mr. Trump's comments before his inauguration. In the short term, gold prices next week will continue to be dominated by statements posted on social networks by Mr. Trump. In addition, the market will focus on important US economic data, such as manufacturing and service PMI index; Employment indexes: ADP, NFP, unemployment rate... If US employment figures, especially NFP, increase stronger than expected, it may cause the FED to delay cutting interest rates at the December meeting. coming, causing gold prices to come under pressure to adjust next week. On the contrary, if US employment figures continue to decline sharply, it will cause the FED to continue cutting interest rates, thereby positively supporting gold prices next week. 📌Technically, on the H4 chart, gold price may still fluctuate between 2,500 - 2,750 USD/oz. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,600 – 2,606 – 2,634USD Resistance: 2,693 – 2,663USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2751 - 2749⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2755 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2539 - 2541⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2535
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD increased thanks to the weakening of the USDOANDA:XAUUSD rose, boosted by the weakening of the USD and safe-haven demand due to concerns about persistent geopolitical tensions. Despite recovering in the final trading session of the week, gold still recorded its worst month of performance since September 2023. The US Dollar Index fell to its lowest in more than two weeks, but was still up 2% in November as Republican Donald Trump's victory earlier this month boosted expectations of big fiscal spending. , higher tariffs and tighter borders. This month, gold prices have fallen more than 3%, the worst monthly decline since September last year. After Mr. Trump's victory, the USD continuously increased in price and triggered a strong sell-off in the gold market. OANDA:XAUUSD forecast Geopolitical instability is still increasing, gold prices may still increase in the near future. Gold is often considered a safe investment in times of economic and geopolitical instability such as trade tensions or conflict. The new administration's policies in the US can impact economies, causing the central bank to increase gold reserves. This prompted a sharp increase in gold trading by central banks. This is the group that bought the most gold on the market recently. BCA Research recommends buying gold when prices fall due to long-term prospects. Gold is a commodity that benefits from the policies of the new administration in the US. Increased global policy uncertainty will support gold buying demand.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Geopolitical risks pushed GOLD to increase rapidly in the short In the early trading session on Asian markets on Friday (November 29), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot rose suddenly and rapidly from the intraday low of $2,633 and headed into a key technical position for technical downside expectations. Impacted by escalating tensions in Ukraine. Russia launches joint attack, Putin "speaks tough" While Israel and Lebanon have reached a 60-day ceasefire agreement, this will essentially create pressure on gold as market risks become less. However, the escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict may continue to keep gold prices stable above 2,600 USD/ounce in the near future. The latest Reuters report on Friday said that Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday local time said Russia could use the new "Hazel" hypersonic missile to attack Kiev in response to Ukraine's missile launch. Western fire penetrated deep into Russian territory. So far in the 33-month war, Russia has not yet attacked Ukrainian ministries, government agencies, parliament or the presidential office. Putin said on Thursday that Russia's large-scale attack on Ukraine was a "response" to Ukraine's use of Western missile systems to attack Russian territory. Earlier in the day, Ukraine reported that energy facilities across Ukraine were being attacked by Russian armed forces. Ukraine's Air Force said Thursday that Russia launched a joint attack on Ukraine using missiles and drones starting early that morning. Most regions in Western Ukraine are under attack, especially Ternopil, Lviv, Lutsk, Vinnitsa, Khmelnytsky and others. Ukrainian President Zelensky said on the social platform on Thursday that he had a conversation with the Air Force commander, the Minister of Internal Affairs and the Minister of Energy that day about the Russian attack. Mr. Zelensky said that the target of Russia's attack this time is Ukraine's energy infrastructure. Russia launched about 100 attack drones and more than 90 missiles of all types. In the current market context, traders need to pay attention to geopolitical conflicts, their escalation or reduction will have a sudden impact on gold in the short term. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold recovered from the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level but is temporarily limited by the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level and the EMA21 moving average. In the short term, Gold can still decrease in price as long as it has not broken the medium-term trend price channel. In the immediate future, gold does not have enough conditions to increase in price in the short term, but a drop below the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level will cause gold to fall further with the goal of reaching the original price point of 2,600 USD. However, geopolitical risks are dominating the market, so any purely technical structure could be broken quite easily during this time. The $2,693 level will be the next target in case the 0.50% Fibonacci level is broken above. The market is very volatile in the short term, so long-term open positions will be less effective, and notable technical levels for the medium-term bearish outlook from the price channel on the daily chart will be seen. noticed again as follows. Support: 2,644 – 2,634USD Resistance: 2,663 – 2,693USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2686 - 2684⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2690 →Take Profit 1 2679 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2674 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2579 - 2581⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2575 →Take Profit 1 2586 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2591
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD fell rapidly in the short term, pressured by US dataIn the early trading session in Asian markets on Thursday (November 28), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery suddenly dropped sharply in the short term, currently trading around 2,629 USD/ounce. Gold prices gave up much of their earlier recovery gains after data showed inflation progress was stalling, as the data could make the Federal Reserve cautious about cutting interest rates further. According to Wednesday's economic data, US durable goods orders rose 0.2% month-on-month in October. While it did not meet expectations of 0.5%, it was an improvement. improved compared to a decrease of 0.4% in September. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the US in the week of November 23 remained stable at 213,000, lower than the expected level of 217,000. The real (quarterly annually adjusted) rate of gross domestic product (GDP) in the United States in the third quarter was unchanged from its baseline value, at 2.8%, and growth slowed from 3% in the second quarter. But the GDP report still shows that the US economy still has good resilience. GDP growth has exceeded 2% in eight of the past nine quarters. A report released by the US Department of Commerce showed that the Fed's favorite inflation index rebounded in October compared to September. The data supports Fed officials taking a more cautious stance in recent times. next interest rate cut. The Fed's favorite measure of inflation, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index that excludes volatile food and energy, rose 2.8% year-on-year in October, a highest since April this year compared to September, up 2.7%. Additionally, the core PCE price index increased 0.3% month-over-month in October, in line with expectations. The PCE price index increased 0.2% month-over-month and 2.3% year-on-year in October, both in line with the forecasts of analysts surveyed by Dow Jones. The PCE index's annual increase in October was higher than September's 2.1% gain. Wednesday's data showed that U.S. personal income rose 0.6% month-on-month in October, significantly better than the expected increase of 0.3%. Minutes of the Federal Reserve's November monetary policy meeting released Tuesday showed that although Fed officials said they expected to continue cutting interest rates in the future, they said the pace Interest rate cuts will take place “gradually”. The gold market fluctuated strongly this week. As Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon declared a ceasefire, reducing demand for safe havens, gold suffered its biggest one-day drop in more than five months on Monday and prices fell to a low. most since November 18 on Tuesday. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold continues to maintain its main bearish trend after approaching and coming under pressure from the 21-day moving average (EMA21). The drop below the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement is a good signal for bearish expectations as the target behind that is at the levels of 2,606 – 2,600USD. Note to readers in the previous issue. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index is flat below 50, if it is pointing down this can be considered a good signal for a downtrend. As long as gold remains below the EMA21 and within the price channel, it will remain bearish in the near term and price rallies should only be considered short-term recoveries without changing the current primary trend. During the day, the technical outlook for gold is bearish with notable points listed as follows. Support: 2,606 – 2,600USD Resistance: 2,634 – 2,644USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2686 - 2684⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2690 →Take Profit 1 2679 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2674 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2579 - 2581⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2575 →Take Profit 1 2586 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2591
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD recovered from $2,606, before a series of key weekly dataIn the Asian market on Wednesday (November 27), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery is trading around 2,638 USD/ounce. During this trading day, investors will receive many important data such as the US PCE inflation index, which is expected to create great fluctuations in the gold market in particular and the financial market in general. The US will release some headline data ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday today (Wednesday). On Wednesday, the US will release a series of important economic data, with US PCE inflation data expected to receive the most attention. Today, US durable goods orders for October, last week's initial jobless claims and third-quarter real GDP data will be released. Surveys showed the U.S. monthly initial durable goods ordering rate in October was expected to rise 0.5%, compared with a 0.7% decline the previous month. The number of Americans filing seasonally adjusted unemployment claims for the week of November 23 is expected to be 217,000, compared with 213,000 the previous week. Additionally, U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter is expected to grow at an annualized quarterly rate of 2.8%. On the same day, the United States will release the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation report for October. This is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. Surveys show that the US PCE price index in October is expected to increase 0.2% monthly and 2.3% annually. Additionally, the US core PCE price index in October is expected to increase 0.3% monthly and 2.8% annually. The core PCE price index could cause a short-term market reaction, with investors expecting core PCE to rise 0.3% month-over-month in October, in line with September's gain. Data Stronger-than-expected data could boost the US Dollar in its initial reaction and drag gold prices lower. On the other hand, a level of 0.2% or lower could have the opposite impact on gold price action. Expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates by 25bps in December are currently at 63.1%, according to CME group's FedWatch data. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold recovered from the initial support level noted by readers in yesterday's edition at 2,606 USD and is now close to reaching the initial target resistance at 2,644 USD. The recent decline has created a medium-term trend price channel for gold. This price channel is inclined towards the possibility of a decrease in price. Along with that, gold will also be under the current main pressure with the 21-day moving average (EMA21). In the interim, gold still has room to recover as long as it remains above its original price point of $2,600, on the other hand if gold breaks $2,644 it could continue to recover a bit further with a target then around $2,663 The price point of the Fibonacci 0.50% is confluent with the EMA21. However, in case gold falls below the original price point of 2,600 USD, it will be eligible for a new short-term down cycle to open, with a target of 2,591 USD in the short term, more than 2,538 USD. During the day, gold's technical outlook leans towards price reduction along with the above recovery levels, notable points will be listed as follows. Support: 2,606 – 2,600USD Resistance: 2,644 – 2,663USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2661 - 2659⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2665 →Take Profit 1 2654 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2649 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2579 - 2581⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2575 →Take Profit 1 2586 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2591
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah is the main pressureOn the Asian market on Tuesday (November 26), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot trading is still under pressure after yesterday's terrible plunge. Gold price is currently around 2,629 USD/ounce. Hopes for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah are turning the gold price outlook bearish, with gold prices set to test $2,600 an ounce. On Monday, gold prices fell more than 3% on reports that Israel and Hezbollah were close to reaching a ceasefire agreement and that Trump nominated Bessant as US Treasury Secretary, reducing its appeal as a haven. Safe for gold. Two senior Israeli officials and two US officials told Axios that Israel and Lebanon are close to reaching a ceasefire agreement to end the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, US-based Axios reported on Monday. According to the Israeli ambassador to the US, a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah is very close. Authorities are expected to announce a 60-day ceasefire today (Tuesday). Previously, gold prices increased more than 6% last week, due to escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions. Britain's Reuters also reported today that US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron are expected to soon announce a ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel. According to Reuters, the French presidential palace announced that discussions on a ceasefire had made significant progress. In Jerusalem, a senior Israeli official said the Israeli cabinet would meet today (Tuesday) local time to approve a ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After yesterday's terrible price drop, gold is trying to recover from its original price point of 2,600 USD. However, the recovery also encountered a lower limit from the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level, followed by horizontal resistance at 2,644USD. Technically, gold has conditions for a downtrend, with the price channel as the main trend, pressure from EMA21 along with the RSI pointing down, bringing activity below the 50 level. In the short term, if gold fails to hold above $2,600, a new bearish cycle could be opened with a target level of around $2,538 once $2,600 is broken below. However, currently gold still has the ability to recover with a resistance target of around 2,634 USD in the short term, more than 2,644 USD. During the day, the technical outlook leans to the downside with the following recovery levels. Support: 2,606 – 2,600USD Resistance: 2,634 – 2,644USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2661 - 2659⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2665 →Take Profit 1 2654 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2649 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2579 - 2581⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2575 →Take Profit 1 2586 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2591
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Nov 25 - Nov 29]Last week, gold prices continuously recovered from 2,564 USD/oz to 2,716 USD/oz. The reason why gold prices increased sharply this week is because investors are concerned that the war between Russia and Ukraine will take a more serious turn when President Biden allows Ukraine to use long-range ATACMS missiles to fire into Russian territory to in response to Russia's deployment of North Korean troops in the Russia-Ukraine war. Besides, Mr. Biden seems to want to make his mark in the Russia-Ukraine war when he only has about 2 months left in power before handing it over to Mr. Donald Trump. In addition, according to many experts, this move by Mr. Biden may complicate the war between Russia and Ukraine, making it difficult for Mr. Donald Trump to end the hostilities as easily as he announced during the campaign. elect US President... Perhaps most alarming is the nuclear doctrine that Russia emphasizes. It considers any attack by a non-nuclear country supported by a nuclear power to be a joint attack. This means that Ukraine's use of ATACMS missiles also means that the US is directly involved in attacking Russia, making the war between Russia and Ukraine no longer a war between these two countries, but could potentially lead to a world war. War III. However, according to many experts, the US may only provide a limited number of missiles to Ukraine, fearing the dire consequences of this move. Therefore, the war between Russia and Ukraine is unlikely to drag many other countries, especially NATO member countries, into the war. Furthermore, with only 2 months left until Mr. Trump takes office as President of the United States, the war between Russia and Ukraine will soon subside. The need for refuge in gold may continue to increase in the short term as Russia and the US are still taking tough stances in the Russia-Ukraine war. Therefore, next week's gold price may continue to rise even higher. This week, the US announced two important indicators: third quarter GDP and personal consumption expenditure index (PCE) - an important inflation measure of the FED. If Q3 GDP declines and PCE increases, it will be difficult for the FED to resist further reducing interest rates, further supporting the rise in gold prices next week. On the contrary, if GDP increases and PCE decreases, the FED will have more motivation to delay cutting interest rates, causing gold prices next week to be negatively affected. 📌From a technical perspective, on the H4 chart, a head and shoulders pattern is forming, but a few more up/down cycles are needed to confirm. Specifically, if the gold price has a correction phase to around the support level of 2640, then bounces back to break the resistance level of 2711, then it can be expected that the price will continue to maintain its upward momentum above the 2790 threshold. In case of support area If 2600 is broken, it could trigger another sell-off, causing gold prices to fall to around 2500. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,684 – 2,697USD Resistance: 2,760 – 2,750 – 2,732USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2791 - 2789⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2795 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2639 - 2641⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2635
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
The geopolitical situation is hotter in many placesIn early trading on Asian markets on Thursday (November 21), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery suddenly increased rapidly in the short term and gold prices are currently approaching the 2,660 USD/ounce mark, threatening the trend from the price channel. Growing concerns about the Russia-Ukraine conflict, along with growing uncertainty in global markets, have supported gold's strong recovery this week. On Wednesday, as tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated, leading to increased geopolitical unrest, investors sought the safety of gold, seen as a hedge against the risks of conflict instability. In response to Ukraine's first long-range missile attack on Russian territory, Russian President Vladimir Putin revised the nuclear weapons guidelines to lower the threshold for nuclear retaliation in response to an attack. series of conventional attacks, leading to increased geopolitical tensions. In addition to the situation between Russia and Ukraine, the tense situation in the Middle East is also a factor supporting gold prices. According to the official website of the United Nations and CNN, on November 20 local time, the United Nations Security Council voted on a ceasefire resolution in Gaza proposed by 10 non-permanent members. The resolution was not passed due to the United States' veto. The remaining 14 countries in the Security Council voted in favor. The resolution "demands that all parties immediately, unconditionally and permanently cease fire and reiterates their demand for the immediate and unconditional release of all detainees." In addition, the resolution further emphasizes the role of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) as the backbone of humanitarian relief operations in Gaza. Additional information, on November 20 local time, the Israeli army attacked a house in the Sheikh Radwan neighborhood, north of Gaza City, killing 66 people and injuring dozens of others. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold is currently operating in a very important position for an uptrend from the price channel with price activity attempting to move above the upper edge of the price channel. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index is also sitting right in the middle of the 50 level, if it breaks above this level it will be a bullish signal. Looking ahead, technically gold is still below resistance levels, from the price channel to EMA21 and the Relative Strength Index. So, it is not yet eligible for a bullish cycle. As long as gold remains below EMA21, it is not yet technically in a bullish position. During the day, with the current operating position, gold is still in an upward trend and notable points will be listed as follows. Support: 2,640USD Resistance: 2,668 – 2,684USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2676 - 2674⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2680 →Take Profit 1 2669 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2664 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2599 - 2601⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2595 →Take Profit 1 2606 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2611
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD is headed for a 5th day of increaseOANDA:XAUUSD rose for a fourth straight day and is headed for a fifth day of gains on Friday (November 22) as safe-haven demand picks up while traders assess the prospect of further policy easing by the Federal Reserve. Federal Reserve and increasingly escalating geopolitical risks. Gold prices recovered above $2,680 and were on track for their best weekly performance since April as the war between Russia and Ukraine escalated. Ukraine says Russia has launched a "new" ballistic missile toward the city of Dnipro, sending a worrying signal to Western supporters of Kiev. Escalating geopolitical tensions often push investors toward safe-haven assets like gold. When the United States vetoed the United Nations ceasefire resolution in Gaza, relations between Russia and Ukraine became tense again, ensuring gold's long-term appeal. Investors have flocked to safe-haven assets during the global crisis and gold prices have hit multiple record highs since conflict in the Middle East erupted last October. Since the beginning of this year, gold prices have risen nearly 30%, supported by solid central bank gold purchases, growing safe-haven demand and a cycle of interest rate cuts by the Reserve Federal. Although the recovery of the US Dollar put pressure on gold prices, safe-haven demand helped gold prices offset this pressure. A stronger US Dollar often makes goods priced in Dollars more expensive and less attractive. Spot gold prices rose 4% this week, their best gain since April, recovering from their biggest weekly drop in more than three years last week. Gold's decline was fueled by a rise in the US Dollar fueled by Trump's victory in the race for the White House. Investors are also focusing on several Fed officials expected to speak this week. Market expectations for a December rate cut have weakened significantly, with the probability now at 59.4%, much lower than 82.5% a week ago. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold broke out of the downtrend from the price channel and initially achieved the conditions for a new bullish cycle to be formed with a move above the EMA21 level. In addition, the Relative Strength Index is also pointing up to surpass 50, which is considered a signal for price increases in the near future. In the immediate future, gold will need to test and surpass the original price level of 2,700 USD. Normally, the original price levels are considered resistance or support depending on price position conditions. If gold surpasses 2,700 USD and maintains stability above the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level, it will be able to continue to increase by more than 30 Dollars to reach the 0.236% Fibonacci level. Currently, gold has the conditions for a bullish cycle, so technically, combined with the escalating geopolitical risk of market shock, the trend of gold is leaning more towards the possibility of price increases. Notable technical points will be listed as follows. Support: 2,684 - 2,668USD Resistance: 2,697 - 2,700 - 2,732USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2711 - 2709⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2715 →Take Profit 1 2704 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2699 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2639 - 2641⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2635 →Take Profit 1 2646 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2651
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Ukraine is dangerous, GOLD receives support from risksOn Wednesday (November 20) on the Asian market, spot gold continued to increase in the short term. Gold price has just retested the mark of 2,640 USD/ounce, increasing sharply to reach nearly 10 USD during the day. Growing concerns about the Russia-Ukraine crisis have caused gold prices to rise further. It is worth noting that geopolitical tensions flared up again due to information that the Biden administration authorized Ukraine to use US-made weapons to attack Russian territory last weekend. Geopolitical tensions, economic risks and a low interest rate environment have enhanced the appeal of gold. Bloomberg of the US commented that as the conflict entered its 1,000th day, Ukraine used its newly acquired long-range missile capabilities to attack a military base on Russian territory. Moscow has warned against such actions and stepped up threats of nuclear responses to conventional attacks. Russia's war in Ukraine has entered a dangerous new chapter On Tuesday local time, Ukrainian forces used the US Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) for the first time to attack a facility in Russia's Bryansk Oblast. The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed that Ukraine used missiles from the US military's Tactical Missile System to attack Russia and that Russia's anti-missile system shot down 5 out of 6 missiles. On Tuesday local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree approving a new version of Russia's basic national policy on nuclear deterrence, which took effect from the date of signing. The new version of the policy expands the range of countries and military alliances with which Russia can exercise nuclear deterrence, and proposes to consider "aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state with the participation or support of nuclear states" is a "joint attack". against Russia. (Directly aimed at America) Bloomberg noted that two developments on Tuesday worried investors, causing investors to rush into safe-haven assets, especially gold. On the daily chart, gold tested the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level at $2,640, which is an important technical point for the downtrend that readers should pay attention to through the price channel. Currently, gold still has conditions to decrease in price with the main trend from the price channel and the main pressure from EMA21 still maintained. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index is also creating a curve as it approaches the 50 level, which shows that buying is slowing down. Technically, gold still has a more bearish outlook. However, if it breaks the price channel and rises above the EMA21 level, a new uptrend could open. During the day, the bearish technical outlook still prevails and the notable points are listed below. Support: 2,605 – 2,600USD Resistance: 2,640 – 2,668USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2653 - 2651⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2657 →Take Profit 1 2646 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2641 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2589 - 2591⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2585 →Take Profit 1 2596 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2601
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
5
GOLD continues to be supported by BidenOANDA:XAUUSD rallied sharply towards a second day of gains after six consecutive days of decline as the dollar's price momentum slowed and growing uncertainty over conflicts in Russia and Ukraine sparked safe-haven demand. As of the time of writing, spot gold has increased continuously the previous trading day to 2,622 USD/ounce, escaping the lowest level in 2 months last Thursday. OANDA:XAUUSD considered a safe investment in times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty, suffered its biggest weekly decline in more than three years last week because of Trump's tariff-leaning policy. Trump's nomination is seen as a potential cause of inflation, which could cause the Federal Reserve to slow down on interest rate cuts. Recent US support for Ukraine has increased tensions and affected safe-haven assets Part of the reason is that US President Biden announced that he will provide long-range missiles to Ukraine so that the country can attack deeper into Russian territory. This will make the war much more complicated, it should be seen as a step closer to direct confrontation between Russia and the US. Previously, Reuters reported that US President Joe Biden's administration on Sunday allowed Ukraine to use US-made weapons to attack deep into Russian territory, a major reversal of Washington's policy. about the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Sources said Ukraine plans to launch its first long-range strike in the coming days but declined to reveal details due to security concerns about the operation. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates for a third time in December, although recent data suggests inflation's recovery toward its 2% target has stalled. About seven Fed officials will speak this week. Rising interest rates could put further pressure on gold by making non-yielding assets like gold less attractive. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Although gold has recovered to break the falling price channel in the short term, in the medium term it still tends to lean towards the downside with the price channel as the trend and the main pressure from the EMA21 level. On the other hand, the uptrend RSI is also close to reaching the 50 level. The 50 level is considered a resistance or support point depending on the condition of the RSI above or below this level. However, gold may still increase a bit more with the 2,640USD position sent to readers in yesterday's publication, this is the position of the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level. As long as gold remains within the price channel and below the EMA21 level, the technical outlook is tilted to the downside, and the day's highlights are listed below. Support: 2,600 – 2,588USD Resistance: 2,640USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2647 - 2645⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2651 →Take Profit 1 2640 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2635 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2589 - 2591⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2585 →Take Profit 1 2596 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2601
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Cruel sell-off week, GOLD down more than 4%OANDA:XAUUSD This week suffered an extremely brutal sell-off, falling more than 4%, the largest decline since September 2023. Trump is the biggest overall reason for OANDA:XAUUSD plummet Gold had a pretty good month in October, rising along with the US Dollar which was supported by expectations of a possible victory for Donald Trump. Gold prices had previously even extended their gains despite a clear recovery in US Treasury yields across all maturities. However, things have changed significantly since Trump was elected US president The main concerns surround the possibility that the Trump administration will again use tariff measures. These measures will likely spur inflation again and could eventually prompt the Fed to reverse its ongoing easing cycle. The main factor behind gold's surge earlier this year was ongoing geopolitical tensions, especially the escalating conflict between Israel and Hamas and the protracted war in Ukraine. Whenever there is new news about the worsening conflict situation, investors flock to safe-haven assets such as gold. However, recently since Trump's victory, the geopolitical situation and conflicts are showing positive signs, which will create the basis for further gold selling pressure. The Fed is also creating pressure on OANDA:XAUUSD Slightly hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell last week boosted the dollar and dampened interest in gold. Powell said Thursday that the central bank is in no hurry to reduce borrowing costs while the economy continues to be strong, the labor market is solid and inflation is above its 2% target. After Powell's speech, investors lowered the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting, from 72% to 61.9%, according to CME Group's FedWatch data. In addition to Powell's comments, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said the Fed is in no hurry to cut interest rates. Finally, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee left open the possibility of a December Fed meeting, adding, "The debate over neutral interest rates could slow the pace of rate cuts." However, at the end of last Friday's trading session, despite positive US data, the Dollar was still under pressure as market participants took profits before the weekend. That limited gold's decline after falling to a 2-month low of $2,536/oz. Highlights this week This week, gold traders will pay attention to data from the Federal Reserve, unemployment claims and the release of the S&P Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). Overall, this week will be a week with quite a few notable data and events, other than unexpected events such as "Trump is sick and Trump threatens to fire Jerome Powell". Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Although gold recovered very slightly this past weekend, it still ended the week with 6 consecutive days of decline. Gold's recovery keeps it above the 1% Fibonacci level at $2,548 but there is still plenty of room ahead as the most recent pressures from the lower edge of the price channel and horizontal resistance at $2,588 join the Fibonacci level. A 0.786% retracement will still prevent the recovery of gold prices. On the other hand, it still has a technical trend that is completely tilted towards a bearish outlook with the price channel being the main trend in the short term. In addition, the Relative Strength Index is still pointing down without reaching the oversold area, showing that there is still room for price decline ahead. Looking ahead, as long as gold remains within the price channel and below the $2,600 raw price, price increases should only be considered short-term technical corrections without affecting the current primary trend to the downside. The downtrend in gold prices will be noticed again by the positions listed below. Support: 2,548 – 2,536 – 2,528USD Resistance: 2,600USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2606 - 2604⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2610 →Take Profit 1 2599 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2594 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2519 - 2521⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2515 →Take Profit 1 2526 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2531
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
1
WTI continues to decline, even as Biden reverses policyAccording to CFTC data, the net long position of crude oil speculators decreased by 21,944 lots to 71,587 lots, reflecting that market expectations of rising crude oil prices have cooled. TVC:USOIL fell during the Asian session on Monday (November 18), trading around $66.90/barrel, a drop equivalent to 2.43% on the day. Basically, although the geopolitical situation is heating up, its impact on oil prices is limited. The main reason is that global demand is expected to continue to decline, which is an important factor limiting the recovery of oil prices. EIA inventories also increased last week, which is not favorable for a supply-side recovery in oil prices. According to CFTC data, the net long position of crude oil speculators decreased by 21,944 lots to 71,587 lots, reflecting that market expectations of rising crude oil prices have cooled. Biden reverses policy on Russia-Ukraine conflict, allowing Ukraine's military to use US weapons to attack Russia's homeland President Joe Biden's administration has allowed Ukraine to use US-made weapons to attack Russia's homeland Russian land. This is a major reversal in Washington's policy in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Sources said Ukraine plans to launch its first long-range strike in the coming days, but they did not disclose details due to concerns about operational security. There are still two months until President-elect Trump will take office on January 20. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has for months asked for Ukraine's military to use US weapons to attack military targets deep inside Russia. Biden's policy reversal has created some risks in the market, but it is also not considered good support for oil prices when there is a very high possibility that when Trump takes office, all policies related to the War in Ukraine will be abolished. On the daily chart, TVC:USOIL is still maintaining the main downtrend sent to readers in previous publications with the current short-term target at about 66.44USD. The relative strength index (RSI) is pointing down with a steep slope and away from the oversold area, suggesting a broad bearish outlook ahead. As long as WTI crude oil remains below its 21-day moving average (EMA21), it will still have a bearish near-term trend outlook. And once WTI crude oil is sold below 66.44USD it will have the conditions to fall a bit more with the target then being around 65.28USD. During the day, the downtrend of WTI crude oil will be noticed again by the following technical levels. Support: 66.44 – 65.28USD Resistance: 68.11 – 68.77USD
TVC:USOIL
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Nov 18 - Nov 22]This week, international gold prices fell sharply, from 2,686 USD/oz to 2,536 USD/oz and closed the week at 2,563 USD/oz. Thus, from the peak of 2,790 USD/oz, up to now the international gold price has decreased by more than 250 USD per ounce, equivalent to about 9%. The reason why international gold prices have dropped sharply in recent days is because the market expects newly elected President Donald Trump to soon resolve geopolitical tensions in Ukraine, the Middle East, the Korean Peninsula..., causing shelter demand. in gold fell sharply. Besides, Mr. Trump's tariff policy will cause inflation to rise, forcing the FED to raise interest rates again, pushing up the USD. In addition, recently announced US economic indicators, such as retail sales in October increased by 0.4% over the previous month; Consumer confidence recovered strongly;... In particular, FED Chairman Powell said the US economy did not give any signal that the FED should rush to continue sharply reducing interest rates. Short-term gold prices next week may not end their correction due to the impact of policy expectations under Donald Trump's second term. 📌From a technical perspective, on the weekly chart, if this is an adjustment for this chart, the gold price will at least fall around the 2,400 USD/oz mark. On the H4 chart, the gold price has completed a shoulder pattern. head and shoulders as commented last week when the 2640 support zone was broken. Next week, it is possible that the gold price will increase and adjust again. If the support level of 2526 does not hold, gold is at risk of continuing to be sold off, causing the price to fall further below the 2400 mark. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,548 – 2,536 – 2,528USD Resistance: 2,581 – 2,588 – 2,600USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2626 - 2624⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2630 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2432 - 2434⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2428
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
GOLD recovered slightly with main bearish outlookWhen the US Dollar index TVC:DXY rose to its highest level this year, which has reduced the investment appeal of OANDA:XAUUSD fell again and gold prices plummeted to a 2-month low. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently suggested that there may not be any interest rate cuts in December. According to data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday, the US producer price index (PPI) in October increased 2.4% year-on-year, higher than the increase of 2.0%. 3% expected and higher than the 1.9% increase in September. Core PPI, which typically influences the core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), rose 3.1% year-on-year, up from 2.9% previously and above expectations of 3%. Additionally, Thursday's data also showed the number of Americans filing initial unemployment claims fell to its lowest level since May last week, suggesting labor demand remains solid after the storms. and recent strikes. The U.S. Department of Labor reported that the number of Americans filing initial unemployment claims fell by 4,000 to 217,000 in the week ended November 9, compared with a median forecast of 220,000. Gold prices have fallen for five consecutive days and this week's drop could exceed 4%, which is expected to be the biggest weekly drop since June 2021. Powell's hawkish comments signal a "major shift" in the Fed's outlook for rate cuts Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Thursday that the central bank does not need to "rush" to lower interest rates due to the strength of the US economy and that the central bank will "watch carefully" to ensure that certain measures of inflation remain at acceptable levels. “The economy is not sending any signals that we need to rush to cut interest rates,” Powell said in a speech to business leaders in Dallas. The strength of the economy we are seeing now allows us to make prudent decisions.” In an upbeat assessment of the current situation, Powell said domestic economic growth in the US is “so far better than in other major economies around the world”. Powell reiterated that the Fed's path to adjusting interest rates will depend on upcoming data and developments in the economic outlook. On Asian markets on Friday (November 15), spot gold maintained a recovery trend during the day and gold prices are currently at around 2,570 USD/ounce. Today, the US Census Bureau will release retail sales data for October, which is expected to cause significant volatility in the gold market over the weekend. Surveys show U.S. retail sales are expected to rise 0.3% monthly in October, after rising 0.4% in September. US retail sales data is known as "big data" because it typically has a larger impact on financial markets, potentially influencing the trend of assets such as the US dollar and gold. If US retail sales data is stronger than expected, the US Dollar could strengthen, thus continuing to pressure gold. On the other hand, the weaker-than-expected retail sales report will stimulate gold prices to recover further after the recent long series of declines. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold recovered without reaching the horizontal support level of 2,528 USD. Note to readers in yesterday's edition. Although gold has recovered to return to above 2,548 USD, in general its short-term trend is still inclined to the downside with the price channel as the short-term trend. In addition, the technical recovery prospect is also encountering some resistance from the lower edge of the price channel, the resistance level of 2,588 USD and the 0.786% Fibonacci retracement level. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index has not yet reached support from the selling area, so there may still be room for a decline in momentum ahead. The main trend of gold in the short and medium term is still downtrend, the recoveries are only considered short-term adjustments and the notable points will be listed as follows. Support: 2,550 – 2,548USD Resistance: 2,581 – 2,588 – 2,600USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2621 - 2619⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2625 →Take Profit 1 2614 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2609 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2519 - 2521⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2515 →Take Profit 1 2526 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2531
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
GOLD fell despite CPI supporting interest rate cutsOANDA:XAUUSD became a "victim" of Trump and the price plummeted to 2,564 USD/oz. CNN and NBC confirmed that Donald Trump has won three consecutive victories and the Republican Party maintains a slim majority in the US House of Representatives. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October was in line with expectations and the Fed's December interest rate cut was priced in, boosting crypto buying. What any trader needs to do to survive in the "Trump Environment" is to follow "Trump" X because each of his status lines will directly impact the financial market. News Bloomberg reports that Republicans maintain a slim majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, giving Trump and his party unified control of elected government agencies and limiting potential restrictions on with the power of the incoming president. CNN and NBC News reported Wednesday that the Republican victory significantly dampened Democrats' hopes of curbing Trump's influence in next year's bitter showdown over trillions of dollars in government spending. Tax provisions are about to expire. Trump wants to extend tax cuts approved during his first term and add new measures he promised during the campaign. US CPI is in line with market expectations, the Fed is certain to cut interest rates in December The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US seasonally adjusted annual CPI rate in October was 2.6%, marking a recovery in inflation from September, when the CPI increased 2.4%. % compared to the same period last year. Core inflation, excluding food and energy items, increased 3.3% year-on-year, which may better reflect the underlying inflation trend. Both results were in line with market expectations, and this was the first inflation report since the US election. Although inflation tends to cool down, US President-elect Trump took office during a sensitive period for the US economy, causing gold to remain suppressed. The Fed's goal is to lower interest rates to ensure the economy continues to grow healthily without causing inflation. Federal Reserve members are tempering market expectations for an aggressive central bank easing cycle, but the market remains fairly confident of another 25 basis point rate cut in December. . Traders are currently pricing in around an 83% chance the Fed will cut interest rates in December, compared with 60% ahead of the US inflation data. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has broken below the price channel to facilitate a new bearish cycle with a near-term target around $2,548 rather than the $2,528 level noted by readers in the previous issue. . Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index continues to point down with a steep slope without reaching the oversold area, showing that the bearish outlook is still ahead and the recovery phase may not yet occur. Gold had had 4 consecutive days of strong declines before that. During the day, the technical outlook for gold remains bearish with notable points listed as follows. Support: 2,548 – 2,528USD Resistance: 2,580 – 2,588 – 2,600USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2644 - 2642⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2648 →Take Profit 1 2637 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2632 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2546 - 2548⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2542 →Take Profit 1 2553 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2558
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
2
Money flows out of GOLD ETFs, market focusAs the US Dollar strengthens ahead of the release of economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials, these comments could provide insight into the direction of interest rates under the Trump administration. On Tuesday (November 12), OANDA:XAUUSD dropped to the lowest level in nearly 2 months. By the time this article was completed, gold was trading around 2,611 USD/oz, equivalent to an increase of 0.50% on the day. Dollar index TVC:DXY rose to a 4-month high, making gold more expensive. The US Dollar is expected to benefit from a number of policies of Republican President-elect Donald Trump, which could keep US interest rates relatively high for a long time, which will be an unfavorable environment for gold. not profitable. Wall Street's major indexes hit new closing highs on Monday, boosted by stocks poised to benefit from Trump's potential fiscal policies. Bitcoin also extended its record rally, while short-term US Treasury yields rose to a 3-1/2-month high. Market focus has now shifted to October consumer price index data released on Wednesday, producer price index and weekly jobless claims data released on Thursday and payroll data. Retail sales numbers are released on Friday. Several other central bank governors are expected to speak this week, including Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Gold ETFs experience large outflows The World Gold Council said in its latest report that the US election results have influenced gold's impressive gains since the beginning of the year. Reasons include continued strength in bond yields and the US dollar, risk-on sentiment in the stock market, a push for cryptocurrencies and easing geopolitical tensions. The World Gold Council said global gold ETFs are expected to fall by $809 million (12 tons) in the first week of November, with most of the outflows from North America. In addition, COMEX's net inventory also decreased by 74 tons, down 8% compared to the previous week. The world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund (ETF) saw its biggest weekly outflow in more than two years last week following Trump's decisive victory in The election prompted traders to take profits. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, outflows from the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, surpassed $1 billion last week, the largest weekly outflow since July 2022. Price Spot gold decreased by 1.9% over the same period. The ETF's total gold holdings decreased by 0.4%, down for the second consecutive week. In times of political and economic uncertainty, investors often seek the safety of gold. Last month, they sought the safety of gold amid growing expectations that the US presidential election would be a hotly contested one. But with Trump winning key battleground states and Republicans taking control of the Senate, the results clearly prompted investors to exit their positions to take profits. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold recovered from the key support level highlighted by readers in yesterday's edition at $2,588 and returned to the price channel. The fact that gold is trading above the 0.786% Fibonacci retracement level gives it scope for a recovery but the current position will remain unchanged with all conditions tilting towards a bearish outlook. Gold's recovery may continue with a short-term target of around 2,640 USD, the price point of the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level. However, a new bearish cycle will be opened once gold falls below $2,588 and the target is then around $2,548 in the short term, more than $2,528. As long as gold remains in the price channel below EMA21, the main trend will still favor the bearish outlook, rallies should be considered short-term corrections. During the day, the outlook for a recovery with a main bearish bias will be highlighted by the following technical levels. Support: 2,600 – 2,588USD Resistance: 2,627 – 2,640USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2661 - 2659⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2665 →Take Profit 1 2654 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2649 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2559 - 2561⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2555 →Take Profit 1 2566 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2571
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD is under pressure as the Middle East cools downOn the Asian market today Tuesday (November 12), spot gold has basically stabilized after yesterday's decline and the gold price is currently at about 2,619 USD/ounce as of the time this article was published. complete. OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery has had a large decline as demand for US Dollars continues to increase. Trump's victory in the 2024 election and signs that the Republicans will take full control of Congress have boosted the US Dollar and this will create pressure on gold as a non-producing asset. Yields are directly correlated with the US Dollar. This was brought to the attention of readers many times in publications evaluating the case of Trump winning the US Presidential election. News point The latest data from the US "Capitol Hill" shows that the US Republican Party now wins 218 seats in the House of Representatives, more than half of them, and has won control of the House of Representatives. This means that the Republican Party has won comprehensively, taking control of the House, Senate and the presidential election. On November 5, the United States held its four-year general election. In addition to electing a new president, this general election also re-elected all 435 seats in the US House of Representatives and 34 out of 100 seats in the Senate. To become the majority party in the House of Representatives, it needs at least 218 seats. In addition to the US, tensions in the Middle East also seem to be easing, which also reduces market risk aversion and negatively impacts gold prices. Israel on Monday said it was making progress in ceasefire talks with Lebanon and suggested Russia could play a role in preventing Hezbollah from rearming through Syria, Reuters reported. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said Israel's war against Hezbollah is not over. He said the main challenge to any ceasefire agreement would be implementation, despite "some progress" in negotiations. Sa'ar said Israel is working with the United States to reach a ceasefire agreement. He said Israel wants Hezbollah to stay north of the Litani River and cannot rearm. The basic principle of any ceasefire agreement must be that Hezbollah cannot bring weapons from Syria into Lebanon. Israel Today reported on Sunday that significant progress had been made in diplomatic negotiations on a Lebanese ceasefire proposal, which would require Hezbollah to withdraw north of the Litani River and ban deployments near the Israeli border , while the Israel Defense Forces will return to the international border. About monetary policy The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points last week to a range of 4.5%-4.75%. According to CME Group's "Fed Watch" tool, traders now predict a 68.5% chance the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, compared with about 80% before Trump's election victory. Trump's fiscal plan could reignite inflation and widen the budget deficit, while traders have reduced bets on how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. This week, the US economic situation will affect gold prices. Traders will be watching for comments from Federal Reserve officials as well as the release of key data such as consumer and manufacturer inflation and retail sales. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold continues its downtrend with the price channel noticed by readers in previous publications as a short-term trend. The rallies were very weak as the technical structure tilted completely towards the downside. The nearest resistance is noticed at the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level, while the Relative Strength Index is pointing down from 50 and is still far from the oversold level, showing that there is still wide downside space ahead. On the other hand, the nearest support level at the 0.786% Fibonacci retracement level is also the location of the original price level of 2,600 USD. Once this level is broken below gold, there will be conditions to continue falling even more with the following target. That's about $2,588 in the short term, more than the 1% Fibonacci price point of $2,548. During the day, the technical outlook leans towards the bearish trend and notable points will be listed as follows. Support: 2,610 – 2,600USD Resistance: 2,640USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2661 - 2659⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2665 →Take Profit 1 2654 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2649 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2599 - 2601⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2595 →Take Profit 1 2606 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2611
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
1
WTI crude oil has bearish conditions prevailingTVC:USOIL continued to decline during the Asian trading session on Monday (November 11), trading around 70.03 USD/barrel. As the storm's impact on the supply side waned, sentiment in favor of rising oil prices faded. At the same time, the US Dollar index is strong and rising, putting pressure on WTI crude oil and global demand is expected to show no signs of recovery. Under many resonances, the positive outlook for WTI crude oil is still quite dim. It is currently near the integer mark of $70. If it falls below again, a return to the previous low is likely. Essentially, continue to pay attention to changes in inventory data, as well as whether the US Dollar Index (Dxy) continues to exert strong pressure on oil prices. On the daily chart, after crude oil TVC:USOIL Under pressure from the area around 72.39USD, readers should note that in previous publications, the recovery momentum has weakened. Meanwhile, moving below the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level and the RSI pointing down from the 50 area will be quite good signals for bearish expectations. The first target level for bearish expectations is $68.77 in the short term, ahead of $68.11 and $66.44. Currently, WTI crude oil has technical conditions that are completely inclined to the downward trend with the price channel being the long-term trend. During the day, the downtrend of WTI crude oil will be noticed again by the following technical levels. Support: 70 – 68.77 – 68.11USD Resistance: 70.56 – 72.39USD
TVC:USOILShort
by Xayah_trading