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GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Oct 21 - Oct 25]This week, OANDA:XAUUSD continuously increased sharply from 2,637 USD/oz to 2,723 USD/oz and closed this week at 2,721 USD/oz. According to market observations, gold prices have skyrocketed in recent days due to the impact of many supporting factors: First, the FED warned that it will continue to cut interest rates, although the extent of the FED's interest rate cuts may be less than the recent decision. Not only the FED, but many other central banks have also been implementing their plans to cut interest rates. This increases the appeal of gold. Second, the level of public debt worldwide is even worse than current forecasts, while the measures that countries are taking will not be enough to prevent a sharp increase in public debt. According to the IMF, global public debt will exceed 100 trillion USD, equivalent to about 93% of global GDP, by the end of this year and will reach nearly 100% of global GDP by 2030. Third, as central banks continue to walk the thin line between promoting economic growth and controlling inflation to prevent stagflation, global geopolitical tensions appear to be increasing day by day. Major conflicts between Ukraine and Russia, growing threats between Russia and NATO, Israel-Palestine conflict, tensions between Israel and the US with Iran, tensions between North Korea and South Korea, and many more threats Another threat has been increasing the role of gold as a haven. Fourth, after Russia was removed from the SWIFT system on March 1, 2022, BRICS central banks increased gold reserves at a record pace, promoted currency swaps, and promoted transactions. across borders between BRICS countries is a sign that they are preparing for a global monetary reset. Meanwhile, BRICS member countries account for about 40% of global GDP. This will certainly have a negative impact on the USD. Fifth, central banks of many countries are continuing to promote gold purchases to increase the proportion of gold in national foreign exchange reserves, causing the proportion of USD in foreign exchange reserves of many countries to decrease. down, potentially at risk of USD depreciation. With so many of the above influencing factors, especially geopolitical conflicts, next week's gold price may increase even higher. However, the increase in gold prices is being driven by FOMO psychology, which will pose strong profit-taking risks, especially when geopolitical tensions cool down. 📌Technically, the price is constantly setting new high price thresholds, when in turn breaking through old peak milestones, specifically in the H1 chart, the gold price is approaching the 161.8 Fibo zone, and next week it may continue to conquer. Recovering the Fibo threshold of 261.8 around the round resistance level of 2,800 USD/oz. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2.741USD Resistance: 2.688 – 2.700 – 2.711USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2801 - 2799⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2805 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2624 - 2626⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2620 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2659 - 2661⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2655
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
Refreshing all-time level, GOLD is eligible to continue risingAs uncertainty about the US presidential election and war in the Middle East push investors to seek safe haven assets, and the monetary policy environment that tends to lower interest rates are the main factors pushing push up gold prices. After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points last month, gold prices are set to gain more than 30% this year, driven by the prospect of further rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainty. Since gold does not yield interest, cutting interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of investing in gold and increase its appeal. On the geopolitical side, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel will continue to fight until all hostages captured by Hamas last year are released. During times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty, investors often seek the safety of gold. Israel announced that Hamas leader Sinwar was dead On October 17 local time, Israeli media quoted senior Israeli officials as saying that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was killed by the Israeli army. Earlier on the same day, the Israel Defense Forces and the Israel National Security Agency (Sin Bet) issued a joint statement saying that, according to preliminary reports, the Israeli army killed 3 Palestinian armed personnel during the attack. military operations in the Gaza Strip. The Israel Defense Forces and the Israel General Security Agency are verifying whether one of them is Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. Sinwar masterminded Hamas attacks on southern Israel, sparking a year-long war in Gaza. Concerns about the future of the US government are also driving demand for precious metals. With three weeks to go until the election, polls show the two candidates tied, creating uncertainty. On Thursday, economic data released by the United States supported the view that the economy will maintain strong growth in the third quarter. Signs of economic recovery may not prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates once next month, but they will reinforce expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut. Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Thursday showed retail sales rose 0.4% month-over-month in September, better than the 0.1% gain in August and better than expected. will increase by 0.3%. In addition, the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits unexpectedly decreased last week. According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday, initial jobless claims fell by 19,000 to 241,000 in the week ended October 12. Economists surveyed had forecast The average number is 259,000. Bloomberg said Western investors also contributed to driving up gold prices. Western investors largely sat on the sidelines in the first half of the year as demand surged in Asia. The Federal Reserve's shift to a looser monetary policy has increased the appeal of gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with their gold holdings on track to increase. 5th consecutive monthly growth in October for the first time since 2020. Longest capital flow since the beginning of this year. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has reached its target level of $2,711 after strong gains and is on track for a fourth consecutive day of gains. Structurally, gold is still on a short-term uptrend, noticed by price channels, and even in the medium and long term, it is also increasing with price channels as the trend. Once gold breaks the 2,711 USD price point of the 0.786% Fibonacci extension, it will have the prospect of continuing to increase in price with the target level then being around 2,741 USD the price point of the 1% Fibonacci extension. Regarding momentum, the Relative Strength Index is pointing up with a significant slope and has not yet completely reached the overbought level, showing that there is still room for price increases ahead, with absolutely no signs of possible reduced corrections and showed solid upward momentum in the market. As long as gold remains within the price channel it will remain bullish in the short term, notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,700 – 2,688USD Resistance: 2,711USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2741 - 2738⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2744 →Take Profit 1 2633 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2628 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2664 - 2666⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2660 →Take Profit 1 2671 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2676
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
New news from the Middle East, GOLD gains and positive outlookOANDA:XAUUSD Reaching the target price increase at an all-time high of 2,685 USD, the haven asset continues to get stronger as the Middle East situation becomes tense again. Israeli sources say Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has approved a series of targets in retaliation for Iran's missile attack on Israel earlier this month. US B-2 bombers have attacked weapons storage sites of Houthi rebels in Yemen in an effort to stop attacks by Iran-backed groups. US media mentioned that the US military's latest measures have disrupted the Red Sea supply chain. The US Department of Defense announced that US military forces carried out precision strikes on five underground weapons storage sites in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen. US Central Command indicated that assessment of combat damage from airstrikes in Yemen is ongoing and there are currently no civilian casualties. Bloomberg reported that US B-2 stealth bombers attacked weapons storage locations related to Houthi rebels in Yemen. American B-2 bombers fly to the target from Whitman Air Force Base, Missouri. This is the first combat mission of this wing-shaped stealth bomber since January 2017. At that time, two B-2 bombers flew a 30-hour round-trip mission to bomb an Islamic State training camp in Libya. Each B-2 is capable of carrying up to 20 tons of bombs, including 80 500-pound GPS-guided projectiles. "This type comes to Vietnam in about half a day and can only be used to make rice cookers, combs, water ladles, trays, buckets, basins,... that's it." Meanwhile, the market sees a 92.1% chance that the US will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November, according to CME's "Fed Watch Tool". Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has an upside target at its all-time high of $2,685 and it currently has the conditions to break this level and refresh its all-time high in the short term. A short rising price channel is formed, notably by the price channel and the nearest support is currently in the area of ​​2,672 – 2,660USD. RSI points up but is still far from the overbought level, showing that there is still plenty of room ahead. In general, on the daily chart, from technical position to space and momentum, gold is likely to increase in price in the near future. If the $2,685 level is broken gold will tend to continue rising with a target then around $2,700 as the whole price point or more like the $2,711 price point of the 0.786% Fibonacci extension. The uptrend in gold prices on the daily chart will be noticed again by the following technical levels. Support: 2,672 – 2,660USD Resistance: 2,685 – 2,688 – 2,700 – 2,711USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2701 - 2699⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2705 →Take Profit 1 2694 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2689 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2642 - 2644⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2638 →Take Profit 1 2649 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2654
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD reaches price increase target, outlook remains positiveUS inflation data reinforces the prospect of an interest rate cut next month. Gold prices rose more than 1% in the weekend's trading session, while safe-haven demand triggered by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The U.S. Department of Labor reported Friday that the Producer Price Index (PPI), a measure of wholesale prices, was unchanged in September, suggesting the inflation outlook remains favorable and supporting the view that the U.S. Department of Labor The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again next month. The report showed that US PPI increased 0% month-on-month in September, lower than the expected 0.1%, the previous value was a 0.20% increase. Commerzbank reported that gold ETF holdings increased by nearly 95 tons in the third quarter, meaning ETFs once again contributed positively to gold demand for the first time in 10 quarters. This week, the market will focus on US retail sales data to determine whether consumer spending will continue to be strong. In addition, the European Central Bank's monetary policy decisions are also the focus of market attention. Traders will need to keep an eye on (Empire State Manufacturing Survey; US Weekly Jobless Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey, as well as data on building permits and construction starts US housing on Friday.) In summary, although the gold market may experience volatility in the short term, in the long term, the safe haven asset gold is still the main factor supporting price increases. Including the recent reduction of interest rates by the Federal Reserve, attracting investors to choose gold as a haven, combined with the widespread war in the Middle East, has further boosted gold prices, because gold is considered an investment channel. safety, especially during difficult times. geopolitical conflict. Going back a bit in history, in 1979, during the Soviet conflict in Afghanistan, the value of gold more than doubled during that period. If Israel carries out retaliatory attacks against Iran, the gold price has absolutely enough basis to continue to surge even stronger. Previously, on October 1, Tehran fired about 180 missiles at Israel in retaliation for Israel's killing of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. Economic data to watch next week Tuesday: Empire State Manufacturing Survey Thursday: European Central Bank monetary policy decision, US retail sales, US weekly jobless claims: Philly Fed manufacturing survey. Friday: Housing construction starts and construction permits in the United States Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD During the weekend trading session, gold achieved the target increase in the weekly issue sent to readers last week and the upward momentum was temporarily limited by the technical level of 2,660 USD. If gold breaks above 2,660 USD, it will be eligible to continue to increase in price with the next target level after that at about 2,672 USD, more than 2,685 USD. Breaking the $2,660 level means that the price channel is also broken, while the Relative Strength Index pointing up with a significant slope reinforces the expectation of strong price increases in the near future. As long as gold remains within the price channel and above the EMA21, the bullish outlook and the technical structure for the uptrend are unchanged, pullbacks should still only be considered short-term technical corrections. In the coming time, the main prospective trend of gold is price increase and notable levels will be listed as follows. Support: 2,634 – 2,630USD Resistance: 2,660 – 2,672 – 2,685USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2686 - 2684⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2690 →Take Profit 1 2679 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2674 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2627 - 2629⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2623 →Take Profit 1 2634 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2639
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
News that the Middle East cools down brings GOLDOANDA:XAUUSD adjusted downward again in the short term after recovering and achieving the upside price target around the technical point of 2,660USD on yesterday's trading day. The Washington Post reported on Monday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the Biden administration that he is ready to attack Iran's military facilities, but not its oil or nuclear facilities. This can be seen as a sign of Israel's restraint in retaliating against Iran's missile attacks. According to a report by "Jerusalem Post", sources revealed that Iran has contacted Israel through secret channels, saying that as long as Israel's response is limited, Iran will consider this round of conflict to have ended. . These two pieces of news eased external concerns about the situation in the Middle East, thereby reducing the appeal of the safe-haven asset gold and causing the upward momentum to slow down, creating downward corrections in the future. short term. Next, traders will need to monitor comments from Federal Reserve officials this week for further hints of an impending rate cut, as well as U.S. retail sales data. The market still sees an 88.1% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting. Since gold does not earn interest, lower interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold . However, gold will react more strongly to "future" orientations. Therefore, it is possible that even if the Fed cuts another 25bps, it will not react strongly but will be influenced by Fed officials' comments on future direction, especially Jerome Powell. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold's recovery was limited after hitting target gains at $2,660. The area around the technical point of 2,660 USD has created pressure causing gold to correct downwards but it is also receiving support from the 2,634 – 2,630 USD area. Note to readers in the previous issue. Along with that, gold is also receiving support from the position of the EMA21. As long as gold remains within the price channel, the main uptrend remains unchanged and the EMA21 level will still serve as the closest support for the uptrend. Once gold breaks above $2,660 it will tend to continue rising with a subsequent target of around $2,672. The $2,660 – $2,672 levels form an area of ​​resistance in the short term. During the day, the technical outlook for gold remains bullish and notable levels are listed below. Support: 2,634 – 2,630USD Resistance: 2,660 – 2,672 – 2,685USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2686 - 2684⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2690 →Take Profit 1 2679 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2674 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2627 - 2629⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2623 →Take Profit 1 2634 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2639
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD hits upside targets, temporarily capped by $2,672OANDA:XAUUSD continues to get stronger, reaching the short-term target level at 2,660USD and aiming for the next target levels at 2,672 - 2,685USD. Boosted by falling US Treasury yields, investors cautiously await more data that could provide a fresh assessment of the Federal Reserve's monetary easing cycle. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders now see about a 95.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in November. Market attention will be focused on US retail sales data, industrial production data and weekly jobless claims data due out later this week. Gold prices have risen more than 29% year-to-date, with optimism about interest rate cuts fueling recent gains. Gold prices are also supported by strong purchasing power from central banks and safe-haven demand amid ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. The latest news from Israel, two Israeli officials said on October 15 local time that although Israel's attack on Iran is not expected to target nuclear facilities and oil facilities, it could including missile and drone launchers, Iranian warehouses and factories, military bases, government buildings and other targets. Iran on October 1 launched a large number of ballistic missiles into Israel, attacking Israeli military and security targets in response to a series of previous Israeli attacks and assassinations. In security consultations involving Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, Defense Minister Galante and other ministers, a comprehensive agreement was reached on the course of action against Iran, timing and intensity a response is possible, but the details still require final Cabinet approval before the action can be taken. Gold itself does not generate interest, but it has the potential to increase in price during times of geopolitical and economic instability. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has recovered and increased to achieve most short-term targets from 2,660 USD to close to the 2,672 USD area. Temporarily, technically, the gold price is still limited by the level of 2,672 USD. However, maintaining above 2,660 USD will be a positive condition in the short term for the possibility of a technical price increase in the near future. Once gold breaks $2,672 it will be on track to continue rising more with a target then around $2,685 or so making new all-time highs. The relative strength index (RSI) is pointing up from 50 and is still far from the overbought level, showing that there is still room for price growth in terms of momentum. As long as gold remains within the channel and above the EMA21, it still has a bullish technical outlook, and notable intraday levels are listed below. Support: 2,660 – 2,643USD Resistance: 2,672 – 2,685USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2686 - 2684⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2690 →Take Profit 1 2679 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2674 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2642 - 2644⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2638 →Take Profit 1 2649 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2654
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
USDJPY has bullish technical conditionsThe latest economic data suggests the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates again next month, but a larger cut is being underestimated. Therefore, US bond yields remain stable and the wide spread between Japanese government bond yields and US bond yields continues to support the US Dollar. On the daily chart, OANDA:USDJPY The uptrend is noticed by the price channel and the nearest support level at 148.113 of the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement. Temporarily, USD/JPY's upside momentum is limited by the upper channel edge, once USD/JPY breaks above the channel it will continue to trend upward towards the 150.739 levels in the short term, more than 151,866. Even if the 0.382% Fibonacci level is not enough to support USD/JPY in the short term, it still has other support slightly lower at 147.113 – 146.424. As long as USD/JPY remains above EMA21 and within price channel, it still has a bullish technical outlook with notable technical points listed below. Support: 148.113 – 147.112 – 146.424 Resistance: 149,364 – 150,739 – 151,866
Long
by Xayah_trading
WTI affects the Middle East and storms in the USOil prices were volatile but posted a second straight weekly gain last week as investors weighed potential supply disruptions in the Middle East and the impact of Hurricane Milton on fuel demand in Florida. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange decreased to 75.56 USD/barrel. Although US President Joe Biden has advised against attacking energy facilities in OPEC's third largest producer, the possibility of prolonging the conflict in the Middle East and there are increasing signs of this spreading will make the market nervous. Unrest in the Middle East has increased price volatility and prompted hedge funds to increase their net long positions. At the same time, a statement from the US Treasury Department said that in response to Iran launching ballistic missiles towards Israel on October 1, the US is expanding sanctions on the oil and chemical industry. Iranian oil. Hurricane Milton swept through Florida and into the Atlantic last Thursday, killing at least 10 people and leaving millions without power, putting pressure on prices. Nearly a quarter of Florida's 7,912 gas stations were without fuel as of last Wednesday morning, as drivers stocked up on gas earlier this past week ahead of the storm. Florida is the third largest gasoline consuming state in the US, but the state has no refineries and therefore must rely on imports. On the daily chart, TVC:USOIL slight correction after recovery and limited by the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level. Up to now, WTI crude oil still has technical price increasing conditions with the main trend from the price channel, main support from EMA21. The confluence of the lower edge of the price channel and the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level is the closest current support for WTI crude oil on the daily chart. If WTI crude oil breaks above the 0.50% Fibonacci level, it will have conditions to continue rising with the target level then being around 79.03USD. As long as WTI crude oil remains above the EMA21, it remains technically bullish in the short term, and the highlights are listed below. Support: 73.77 – 72.39USD Resistance: 76.40 – 76.84USD
TVC:USOILLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Oct 14 - Oct 18]This week, OANDA:XAUUSD have continuously decreased in the early sessions of the week to nearly 2,602 USD/oz because market expectations about the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve (FED) began to change. . Last week's strong jobs report, combined with a higher-than-expected rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), forced the market to temper expectations for a sharp interest rate cut by the Fed next month. However, economic experts note that the slowing US economy will continue to pressure the Fed to cut interest rates, albeit at a slightly slower pace. This combined with US consumer sentiment falling to 68.9 points, and the Middle East geopolitical conflict remaining complicated, pushed gold prices back up to 2,661 USD/oz and closed the week at 2,657. USD/oz. Although the FED may reduce the pace of interest rate cuts in the near future, investors should not forget that US monetary policy is only one factor affecting gold prices. Notably, many central banks have officially announced they will continue to buy gold reserves. As central bank demand continues to dominate the gold market, new questions are being raised about where all that money is going and what impact it has on the dollar. Certainly, reducing the proportion of USD in foreign exchange reserves of many countries will cause the USD to gradually depreciate. In addition, BRICS member countries are promoting local currency swaps and using electronic currencies in international trade, also creating significant downward pressure on the USD. In addition, the record high level of US public debt is weakening the purchasing power of the USD. The USD has been under a lot of downward pressure, so of course it will positively support gold prices in the medium and long term. 📌Technically, on the H4 chart, there are continuous periods of sideways accumulation, then continuously creating new high prices afterward. And this time is no exception if the price breaks the peak of 2,685 USD/oz. Currently, the support level is established around the circular resistance level of 2600, while the resistance level is around the 2685 mark. Next week, if the gold price trades above the 2625 threshold, we can expect the price to continue to increase beyond the 2700 threshold. In case the support mark of 2600 is penetrated, the gold price will temporarily decrease and adjust below the level of 2555. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2.555 – 2.600 – 2.625USD Resistance: 2.700 – 2.685USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2701 - 2699⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2705 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2624 - 2626⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2620 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2554 - 2556⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2550
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD rose for two consecutive sessions after inflation dataOANDA:XAUUSD rose on Friday (October 11), after US inflation data reinforced the prospect of lower interest rates this year, keeping the dollar below recent peaks, amid haven demand. Safety stemming from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also boosted gold. At the end of the trading session on October 11, the spot gold contract increased 1% to 2,656.09 USD/oz, increasing for the second consecutive session. Gold futures contracts added 1.3% to 2,674.40 USD/oz. The PPI producer price index in the US was unchanged in September, showing that the inflation outlook remains favorable and supporting expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower interest rates next month. The PPI data looks friendly to precious metals bulls and shows that the Fed is still on track to lower interest rates this year. This data comes after CPI data in the US rose slightly higher than forecast last month, however, the annual inflation increase was at the lowest level in more than 3 and a half years. The dollar steadied below a 2-month peak on Friday. On the physical front, gold dealers in India charged premiums for the first time in two months this week as the upcoming festive season attracted some buying of copper jewellery. Gold holdings of ETFs increased to nearly 95 tons in the third quarter. This means ETFs are contributing positively to gold demand again for the first time in 10 quarters.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD recovers strongly from support area, eye US PPIOn Friday (October 11) in the Asian market, spot gold suddenly increased sharply in the short term. Gold price has just exceeded 2,645 USD/ounce, increasing more than 15 USD during the day. While US CPI data was slightly higher than expected, US initial jobless claims data performed poorly. This caused the US Dollar index to decrease significantly. In addition, tensions in the Middle East also attracted a wave of safe-haven gold buying. On Thursday, although US CPI data came in slightly higher than expected, US initial jobless claims data performed poorly. Data on Thursday showed that the US consumer price index (CPI) in September rose 2.4% year-on-year, exceeding expectations for a 2.3% increase. Core CPI increased by 3.3% over the same period last year, exceeding expectations and the 3.2% increase in August. Additionally, US CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month in September, a similar increase to the previous month and above the consensus estimate of 0.1%. The US core CPI growth rate in September was stable at 0.3% over the previous month, exceeding expectations of 0.2%. The data also showed the number of Americans filing new unemployment claims last week rose to the highest level in more than a year, reflecting a weakening labor market partly due to a rise in jobless claims. strong in Michigan and the effects of Hurricane Helene. OANDA:XAUUSD supported by broad-based risk aversion and a softer USD ahead of US Producer Price Index (PPI) data released later on Friday. On Thursday evening local time, the Israeli security cabinet held a meeting to decide how to respond to Iran's large-scale missile attack on Israel on the 1st of this month. Science Minister Gila Gamliel, a member of Israel's security cabinet, said the security cabinet would "make the right decision" to prevent another Iranian attack. Gamliel told Israeli public broadcaster Kan that revenge was imminent and could happen at any time. US and Israeli officials told Axios that US President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu moved closer to the scope of Israel's planned retaliation against Iran during their phone call on Wednesday, media reported. American news agency Axios reported on Thursday (local time). The Biden administration admits that Israel will soon launch a major attack on Iran. Pay attention to PPI data US annual PPI growth in September is expected to slow to 1.6% while year-on-year core PPI growth in September is expected to increase to 2.7%, compared to previous growth of 2.4% in August. PPI data is almost as influential as CPI data and is also expected to create strong fluctuations in the market. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has recovered significantly from the key support area that readers noticed in the publications before gold adjusted down to the 2,608 – 2,600 USD area. The recovery gains achieved the initial target at $2,634 and broke this level, which would qualify gold to continue towards the next target at $2,660 in the short term. There are no changes in the technical structure that support the upside, with the Relative Strength Index also folding upward from 50, which is seen as the closest support in terms of momentum. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices continues to be bullish and notable levels are listed below. Support: 2,634 – 2,630 – 2,626USD Resistance: 2,660 – 2,672 – 2685USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2663 - 2661⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2667 →Take Profit 1 2656 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2655 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2621 - 2623⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2618 →Take Profit 1 2628 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2633
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD is affected by the Middle EastAs recent jobs data prompted investors to lower expectations for a sharp interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November, and as tensions in the Middle East showed signs of easing, gold prices fell. strong but it seems this is just a profit-taking move and not a downtrend with solid conditions. Following last week's positive jobs report, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its November meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool, the market currently predicts an 86.8% chance of a 25% rate cut. basic point. Markets will focus on the minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting to be released on Thursday, followed by US consumer price index data on Thursday and producer price index data on Thursday. out on Friday. US inflation data due out on Thursday is expected to show price pressures continuing to ease, but there is little further push for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates further in the meantime. next time. Therefore, the current gold price trend is temporarily governed by geopolitical developments. On Thursday, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its September monetary policy meeting. The market will have additional trading materials from the meeting minutes. The Federal Reserve almost unanimously agreed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its September meeting. In addition to the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, many Federal Reserve officials will speak during this trading day, including Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson, Fed Chairman Richmond Barkin, Fed Chairman Atlanta Bostic, Fed President Dallas Logan and Chicago Fed President Gu lsby. Regarding the situation in the Middle East, Lebanese Hezbollah deputy leader Naim Qassem said in a televised speech at an undisclosed location on Tuesday that he supported the efforts of the National Assembly Speaker. Lebanon Berri aimed to promote a ceasefire without specifying Hezbollah's proposal. It is worth noting that this is the first time that Hezbollah does not consider ending the war in Gaza a prerequisite for ending fighting in Israel and Lebanon. OANDA:XAUUSD known for its stability and as a tool to prevent geopolitical and economic risks, and when geopolitical risks show some signs of cooling down, gold also falls due to weakening shelter demand. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is correcting but there are also signs of recovery from the EMA21 level, the key support level you will pay attention to throughout these publications. With the main trend from the price channel and the EMA21 level not being broken below, gold's technical outlook still has conditions for price increases. In the short term, holding above $2,608 – $2,600 provides room for gold to recover with the nearest target at $2,634 and more to $2,660 once it breaks above initial resistance at $2,634. The relative strength index RSI points down with a moderate slope and is close to the area of ​​the 50 level, the 50 level is considered the closest support level currently, the RSI pointing up from this level will be considered a signal price increase. As long as gold remains within the price channel and above the EMA21, it still has enough upside and notable levels are listed below. Support: 2,608 – 2,600USD Resistance: 2,634 – 2,660USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2646 - 2644⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2650 →Take Profit 1 2639 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2634 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2594 - 2596⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2590 →Take Profit 1 2601 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2606
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD recovers moderately after sharp declineOANDA:XAUUSD maintained a moderate intraday recovery after yesterday's sharp decline. Gold price is currently trading around 2,611 USD/ounce. Minutes of the Federal Reserve's September meeting showed that the vast majority of Fed officials favored a significant 50 basis point interest rate cut. Traders' focus now turns to the US CPI data released today. Today the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Investors will focus on this report for more data to evaluate on the US interest rate outlook. The market expects US annual CPI growth in September to decrease from 2.5% to 2.3%. CPI in September is expected to increase by 0.1% over the previous month, lower than the previous increase of 0.2%. The annual US core CPI growth rate in September is expected to remain at 3.2%; Core CPI growth rate compared to the previous month in September is expected to decrease from 0.3% to 0.2%. The market estimates inflation will continue to decline, data equal to or lower than expected would be a very positive signal for gold prices. However, if inflation is higher than the previous period, it will open the door for expectations that the Fed will pause the monetary policy easing cycle and this is not beneficial for gold, boosting the US Dollar. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is trying to hold above key technical levels above the $2,600 full price and above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. Temporarily, the recovery momentum is quite weak, hindered by the EMA21 level. However, conditions still allow gold prices to rise technically with the trend channel not broken below, on the other hand, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) approaching the 50 level, showing some signs of being broken. bend and if RSI points up it will be a positive signal for gold prices. As long as gold remains within the price channel, it still has conditions to increase in price. In case gold is sold below the level of 2,600 USD, confirmed by the price penetrating the level of 2,594 USD, it will tend to decrease further with the target level being able to reach 2,560 USD, the price point of the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement. During the day, gold still has a technical outlook that leans heavily towards price increases with notable levels listed below. Support: 2,608 – 2,600 – 2,594USD Resistance: 2,618 – 2,634 – 2,660USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2636 - 2634⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2640 →Take Profit 1 2629 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2624 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2589 - 2591⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2585 →Take Profit 1 2596 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2601
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
NF data is coming in, GOLD remains stable with rising channelOANDA:XAUUSD Continuing to maintain the recovery trend with a slight increase in the Asian trading session on October 4, gold is currently trading at 2,661 USD/oz, a slight increase equivalent to 0.21% on the day and about 5 USD as of today. the time the article was completed. Investors will release the US nonfarm payrolls report, which is expected to cause major volatility in the gold market. US nonfarm payroll employment is expected to increase by 140,000 in September. The US non-farm payrolls report for September will be released, this is the most important data this week. Surveys show the number of nonfarm workers in the United States is expected to increase by a seasonally adjusted 140,000 in September, following a gain of 142,000 in August. US unemployment rate expected ​will remain unchanged at 4.2% in September. In addition to changes in overall nonfarm payroll employment and the unemployment rate, investors need to focus on average hourly earnings data, which can provide important signals about inflation. broadcast. The average annual hourly wage increase in the United States in September is expected to be unchanged from 3.8% the previous month. Surveys show average hourly wages in the United States are expected to rise 0.3% in September, following a 0.4% increase in August. The September non-farm payrolls report is the next important economic data in the US that could affect Fed policy. If non-farm data is stronger than expected, this could further weaken expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates sharply in November, thereby pushing the dollar higher and creating pressure. for gold price. Conversely, if non-farm employment data is lower than expected, this will be a positive signal for gold prices as it will boost expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates sharply, and cause the currency to US Dollar weakens again. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is still trading fairly stable with an uptrend after recovering from corrections and from the support area noted by readers in the previous issue at the lower edge of the price channel, confluence with horizontal support at 2,634USD. In terms of structure, there are no changes compared to previous publications, still an uptrend highlighted by the price channel and weekly target level at 2,672USD. Once the $2,672 level is broken above, gold will have room to continue rising a little further with a target then around $2,685. As long as gold remains within the price channel and above the 0.618% Fibonacci extension at $2,624, it still has a short-term technical bullish outlook. Notable levels are listed below. Support: 2,645 – 2,634 – 2,624USD Resistance: 2,672 – 2,685USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2686 - 2684⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2690 →Take Profit 1 2689 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2684 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2619 - 2621⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2615 →Take Profit 1 2626 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2631
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD stabilized at the beginning of the weekOANDA:XAUUSD It is still trading quite stably as at the beginning of the week there were no macro data or events that created a shock on the market. On Tuesday (October 8) in the Asian market, spot gold is currently trading around 2,643 USD/ounce. OANDA:XAUUSD weakened on Monday due to a significant rise in US bond yields, but gold's decline was limited as geopolitical tensions still had the potential for unexpected spikes. Gold prices reached a record high of 2,685.42 USD/ounce on September 26. Gold is considered a hedge against economic and geopolitical instability and tends to thrive in low interest rate environments. Last week's US jobs report reinforced beliefs that the economy is unlikely to require significant interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve for the rest of the year, with traders currently pricing in There is an 86% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by just 25bps next month. The market will focus on the Federal Reserve's policy meeting minutes, as well as US consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) data this week. In addition, China's central bank did not buy gold for reserves in September for the fifth consecutive month. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Although gold has had 4 consecutive days of decline, the price declines were not strong and did not create any breakthroughs, as the declines were limited and recovered quickly. Temporarily, the price drops should only be considered a technical correction without any impact on the main uptrend with the nearest support at 2,634 USD. Note to previous readers. The main support follows the EMA21 line, with gold recovering above the 2,645 USD price point of the 0.786% Fibonacci level, it will have conditions to set expectations to retest the 2,672 USD level once again. The relative strength index points down with a very moderate slope, not a significant bearish signal. In case the $2,634 level breaks below gold there is still some other support from the 0.618% Fibonacci level and the EMA21 moving average. There is no change in the main trend with price channel as the long-term trend, and notable technical levels are listed again as follows. Support: 2,634 – 2,624USD Resistance: 2,645 – 2,659 – 2,672USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2666 - 2664⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2670 →Take Profit 1 2659 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2654 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2619 - 2621⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2615 →Take Profit 1 2626 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2631
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD follows geopolitical trendsOANDA:XAUUSD fell on Friday (October 4) after a better-than-expected US jobs report dampened expectations for a sharp interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month, boosting the dollar. However, geopolitical risks related to Israel and Iran supported gold prices, limiting the downward adjustment. The U.S. labor market added more jobs than expected in September, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell, reflecting the job market outlook, the U.S. Department of Labor reported last Friday. much stronger than expected. New U.S. nonfarm payrolls totaled 254,000 in September, above August's revised 159,000 and better than market expectations of 150,000. The unemployment rate decreased 0.1% month-on-month to 4.1% in September. The market expects the unemployment rate to stabilize at 4.2%. As a key indicator of inflationary pressures, annual wage growth increased to 4% from 3.9% in August, a monthly increase of 0.4%, in line with August data, The labor force participation rate was unchanged from the previous month at 62.7%. After strong employment data, the market expects that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November and December, while lowering expectations for interest rate cuts at the next four Fed meetings to less than 100 basis points. According to CME Group's "Fed Watch Tool", the market currently predicts the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in November is 97.4% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 2.6%. . Israel does not guarantee not to carry out retaliatory attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities On Friday (October 4) local time, a senior US State Department official announced that Israel has not assured the Biden administration that it will not carry out retaliatory attacks against facilities. Iran's nuclear program. Israel and Iran have never been closer to opening a new, much more dangerous front in the war raging across the Middle East. The US official added that it was difficult to know whether Israel would launch a retaliatory strike on October 7, the first anniversary of a major attack by Hamas on Israel. Israeli officials say Israel will launch "retaliation" in the next few days after a major Iranian missile attack, possibly targeting oil production facilities and other strategic locations in Iran - according to Axios reported Wednesday. Iran threatened Tuesday to launch another attack if Israel responded with force following the launch of nearly 200 missiles. Axios also reported Israeli officials saying that if this happens, all options will be on the table, including an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. This week, the US will release inflation data, initial jobless claims and the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index. At the same time, the geopolitical situation will continue to limit the decline in gold prices. An escalation in the conflict involving Hezbollah, Iran, Israel and the United States would be expected to provide potential support for new highs in gold prices. Economic data to watch out for this week Wednesday: Minutes of September FOMC meeting Thursday: US Consumer Price Index(CPI), Weekly Jobless Claims Friday: U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI), University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold had a highly volatile trading week but overall remained stable with an uptrend, and all downward corrections recovered quickly when reaching support levels of interest to readers at 2,624 - 2,645 USD. The relative strength index (RSI) is pointing down from the overbought level, but the slope is not large and does not create any significant decline, showing that the market sentiment does not want to short-sell gold and the selling motivation is very weak. The trend of gold price will still be stable with short-term price channel and EMA21 as main support. As long as gold remains in the price channel, its technical outlook is still bullish. The target level is fixed at 2,672 USD, which means the nearest resistance is at 2,672 USD followed by the previously established all-time high of 2,685 USD. In the coming time, the gold price outlook will be shaped by the following technical levels. Support: 2,645 – 2,634 – 2,624USD Resistance: 2,672 – 2,685USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2673 - 2671⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2677 →Take Profit 1 2666 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2661 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2629 - 2631⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2625 →Take Profit 1 2636 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2641
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Oct 07 - Oct 11]In the beginning of last week, OANDA:XAUUSD increased from 2,624 USD/oz to 2,672 USD/oz due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Immediately afterwards, international gold prices dropped to close to 2,631 USD/oz after US non-agricultural employment figures for September were announced at 254,000 jobs, much higher than the forecast of 147,000 jobs. The unemployment rate also decreased to 4.1% from 4.2% in August. In addition, wages increased more than expected when they increased by 0.4% last month. This reduces expectations that the FED will continue to cut interest rates by 0.5% next month. However, concerns about the escalating Middle East conflict pushed gold prices up to 2,670 USD/oz, then closed the week at 2,653 USD/oz. This week, the US will release the minutes of the FED meeting and inflation indicators, such as the consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI). Previously, the FED paid more attention to labor market data. Now the escalating geopolitical conflict threatens to push oil prices up even more, putting pressure on inflation, so CPI and PPI will receive special attention from the market. If these two figures increase sharply, the FED may delay, or only cut interest rates by 0.25% next month. This will have a negative impact on gold prices next week, possibly pushing gold prices below the 2,600 USD/oz area. 📌Technically, on the H4 chart, the gold price moves sideways and accumulates in a triangle model. If the 2630 support zone is penetrated, the gold price will adjust to below 2600. However, if the conflict between Israel and Iran escalates strongly, it is possible that next week's gold price will break its peak. 2,700 USD/oz. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2.600 – 2.625USD Resistance: 2.700 – 2.676USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2711 - 2709⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2715 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2589 - 2591⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2585
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD decreased slightly after the US employment reportOANDA:XAUUSD fell in the trading session on Friday (October 4), when traders almost stopped betting on the possibility of the Federal Reserve (Fed) reducing interest rates by 0.5 percentage points in next meeting. Interest rate expectations moved strongly after the market received the US September employment report much better than expected. At closing, the spot price of gold in the New York market decreased by 2.2 USD/oz compared to the closing level of the previous session, equivalent to a decrease of 0.08%, to 2,654.3 USD/oz - according to data from the exchange. Kitco translation. For the whole week, spot gold price decreased by 4.6 USD/oz, equivalent to a decrease of 0.17%. A report from the US Department of Labor shows that the number of new jobs created in the non-agricultural sector in September reached 254,000 jobs, far exceeding the forecast of 150,000 new jobs that economists made in a survey by Dow Jones news agency. The unemployment rate decreased slightly to 4.1% instead of remaining at 4.2% as forecast. The USD increased sharply after the above report was published, and bets on a 0.5 percentage point interest rate cut at the Fed's November meeting almost disappeared. All of these movements put downward pressure on the price of gold - the asset is priced in USD and does not carry interest. The Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the USD compared to six other major currencies, increased nearly 0.5%, closing Friday at 102.49 points, the highest since mid-August. This week, the Dollar Index increased by 2.1% due to a sharp drop in expectations for a 0.5 percentage point interest rate cut by the Fed, not to mention the need to hedge against Middle East geopolitical risks, which encouraged investors to buy the currency. greenbacks and US treasury bonds. In the past month, the index has increased nearly 1.3% - according to data from MarketWatch.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
ADP exerts pressure, but geopolitics is the main influence nowOANDA:XAUUSD is trading quite stable during the Asian trading session on October 3, as of the time this article was completed, spot gold was trading at 2,655USD/oz. After the release of stronger-than-expected US ADP data the previous trading day, the US Dollar strengthened and gold prices plummeted to 2,640.91USD/ounce. However, affected by tensions in the Middle East, gold prices have recovered strongly from low levels. Although the "small non-farm" ADP data stimulated a rise in the US Dollar and US bond yields, which was not good for gold prices, tensions in the Middle East supported gold prices, which is very easy to see recently as news and breaking points from the Middle East cover the market. U.S. ADP private-sector employment rose by 143,000 in September, more than an expected gain of 125,000, according to Wednesday's economic data. The previous value was an increase of 99,000. Israel will carry out “massive retaliation” in the next few days Israeli officials say Israel will launch "significant retaliation" in the coming days to Iran's major missile attack on Tuesday, which could target oil production facilities and other strategic locations in Iran, the American news website Axios reported on Wednesday. Israel and Iran have never been closer to opening a new, much more dangerous front in the war raging across the Middle East. Iran threatened Tuesday to launch another attack if Israel responded with force following the launch of nearly 200 missiles on Tuesday. On Wednesday local time, Iranian President Pezeshyan visited Qatar and held talks with Qatari Emir (Head of State) Tamim. Pezeshchiyan said in a press conference after the talks that Israel's military operations against the Gaza Strip, attacks on Hamas leader Haniyeh in Iran and military attacks against Lebanon forced Iran to respond. pay. Pezeshchiyan warned that if Israel carries out retaliatory attacks on Iran, Iran will respond more forcefully. In times of political uncertainty, gold benefits from its safe-haven nature and can benefit from a rate-cutting environment because it does not generate interest. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has almost moved sideways in the last few trading sessions, and every time corrections occur it always recovers quickly and maintains the main uptrend from the price channel. The fact that gold is trading above the 0.786% Fibonacci extension provides the possibility of continued price increases with a fixed short-term target at 2,672 USD, which also means that the technical point of 2,672 USD is currently the closest resistance. at, then at 2,685USD. There is no change in the technical structure with bullish conditions dominating the daily chart. During the day, the bullish outlook for gold prices will be noticed by the following technical levels. Support: 2,645 – 2,634USD Resistance: 2,672 – 2,685USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2701 - 2699⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2705 →Take Profit 1 2694 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2689 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2619 - 2621⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2615 →Take Profit 1 2626 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2631
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD soars, attention to the Middle East and dataAffected by tensions in the Middle East and falling US bond yields, demand for safe havens increased and gold prices achieved the target increase at 2,672 USD. Note to readers in the publication issue Before gold fake correction,. Gold prices are still hovering below recent record highs after the Fed Chairman hinted at smaller interest rate cuts in the future. As fears of an all-out war in the Middle East increased after Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel, gold prices rose due to safe-haven demand. Iran fired multiple ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday in retaliation for Israel's actions against its Lebanese ally Hezbollah. Salami, commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said Iran fired 200 missiles at Israel in an operation Tuesday night local time. • White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan called Iran's missile attacks a “significant escalation,” but said they were ultimately “defeated and ineffective,” in part because the US military helped shoot down several incoming missiles. • Sullivan emphasized that the attack will have consequences and that the United States is consulting with Israel on next steps or possible responses. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Iran made a big mistake and will pay the price. This series of launches was the largest missile attack on Israel in Iran's history. Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed that 90% of their missiles successfully hit targets in Israel. As of now, no casualties have been officially reported. Israel's emergency services have lifted all restrictions and people in Tel Aviv have emerged from bomb shelters and returned to the streets. Iran's president says he does not want war but will resolutely fight any threat from Israel. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, which is considered a safe haven asset in times of economic and political turmoil. Gold posted its best quarterly gain since 2020 last quarter after the Federal Reserve began its rate-cutting cycle in September with a 50 basis point cut. Major banks expect gold to continue its record price increase in 2025, due to a resurgence of large capital flows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and expectations of further interest rate cuts from major banks. major central banks, including the Federal Reserve. Gold has risen nearly $577 year to date, or more than 28%, which would be the largest annual gain since 2010. Goldman Sachs raised its gold price forecast in early 2025 to $2,900/ounce from $2,700/ounce, citing a gradual increase in ETF inflows as Western and Chinese interest rates cut and central banks increased strong buy. Next, the market will pay attention to this week's US labor force data, as well as speeches from Federal Reserve officials, for further guidance on the US's policy stance. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold recovered and reached its target gain at $2,672 yesterday. Temporarily, the upward momentum of gold prices is also limited by the above technical level. Although the upward momentum is limited, the uptrend still dominates the daily technical chart. Once the $2,672 level is broken, gold will be eligible to increase further with a target level at an all-time peak established. Previously at 2,685USD. There is no possibility of any significant price decline, as long as gold remains within the price channel it will remain bullish in the short term. Price drops that do not break below the price channel should only be considered short-term corrections. During the day, the bullish outlook for gold prices will be noticed by the following technical levels. Support: 2,645 – 2,634USD Resistance: 2,672 – 2,685USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2701 - 2699⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2705 →Take Profit 1 2694 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2689 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2619 - 2621⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2615 →Take Profit 1 2626 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2631
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
Pay attention to Powell's statement, GOLD corrects and recoversOANDA:XAUUSD There were 2 consecutive sessions of price decline at the end of last month, mainly due to profit-taking activities without affecting the uptrend both fundamentally and technically. From a monthly perspective, gold prices rose more than 6% in September, reaching a peak of $2,685.42 last Thursday, mainly due to the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point cut, stimulus measures China's preferences and escalating tensions in the Middle East. Today (Tuesday), Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will give a speech at the National Association of Business Economics, which is expected to cause violent fluctuations in gold prices. Gold traders will pay close attention to Powell's comments for further information on the future direction of the Fed's monetary policy. • If Powell signals a stronger interest rate cut, gold prices will certainly have to be pushed higher, because lower interest rates often reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets like gold, making them more attractive to investors. • However, if Powell is cautious and signals a slower pace of interest rate cuts, gold may face downward pressure. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, the market is currently pricing in a 36.7% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in November. In addition, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has escalated, which has supported gold prices. Over the weekend, Israel continued to attack Lebanon and claimed to have killed a senior figure of Hezbollah following the murder of the organization's leader Hassan Nasrallah. Iran, which backs the powerful rebel group, vowed to fight back and noted that Nasrallah's killing "will not go unanswered". Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after gold's downside correction, it recovered from the 0.618% Fibonacci extension and the current corrections still do not affect the main technical trend. The short-term uptrend is noticeable because the price channel remains stable, and as long as gold remains in the price channel, its short-term trend and outlook are still bullish. In addition, if gold breaks above the 2,645 USD price point of the 0.786% Fibonacci extension, it will have room to increase further with the goal of returning to the 2,672 USD area. This means that $2,645 is the closest resistance currently. During the day, the technical bullish outlook remains unchanged and notable levels are listed again as follows. Support: 2,624 – 2,610 – 2,600USD Resistance: 2,645 – 2,650USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2676 - 2674⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2780 →Take Profit 1 2669 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2664 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2594 - 2596⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2590 →Take Profit 1 2601 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2606
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Jobs data week, GOLD corrects with steady trendOANDA:XAUUSD rebounded slightly this past weekend on Friday (September 27) as traders received the latest US data, but gold also hit a new all-time record this past week due to Expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further. Although the latest US consumer spending and inflation data reinforced expectations that the US central bank will cut interest rates further in the coming months, it also failed to provide clarity on the question. How deep will the Fed cut? The US core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index showed inflation rose just 0.1% in August, below market expectations. This data increases market confidence that the Federal Reserve will continue to implement easy monetary policy. However, the data gap compared to the same period is not really large, this makes the market begin to divide into two directions; How much will the Fed cut interest rates in the upcoming FOMC period, 50bps or 25bps. As a non-interest-bearing asset, gold becomes more attractive in an interest rate cutting or low interest rate environment, which has pushed gold prices up about 14% this quarter, the best quarter since 2016. The latest consumer spending and inflation data from the US were the main economic indicators influencing the gold market last week. Inflationary pressures have eased, signs of growth in consumer spending suggest the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates further for the rest of the year. Currently, the market is expecting the Fed to cut another 75 basis points over the remainder of the year. This expectation has become the main driving force to help gold prices continue to increase this week, and looking into the future, this is still important support for gold's fundamental uptrend in the near future. At the same time, global geopolitical tensions have added to market uncertainty. Uncertainties about the Middle East situation and the US presidential election have increased market demand for safe havens, further supporting gold prices. This week will be a trading week with a lot of important macro data from the United States, the focus will be on non-farm employment data (NFP). It is expected that gold will have another turbulent trading week. market government. Economic data to watch out for this week Monday: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at the NABE meeting Tuesday: European CPI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Employment Wednesday: ADP jobs report Thursday: Weekly unemployment claims, ISM services PMI Friday: Nonfarm payroll report Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after gold corrected from $2,672 as target resistance, it recovered from the 0.786% Fibonacci extension support point noted by readers in the previous issue. Although gold has corrected, structure and bullish conditions are still dominating the daily technical chart, with a short-term trend from the price channel and key support from the EMA21 and trend from the price channel. However, the Relative Strength Index is falling from the top of the overbought zone, if it falls below the 80 level this could be seen as a signal for bearish space ahead. With gold having increased for many days, it is very normal for a technical correction to occur. As long as gold remains in the price channel and above the EMA21, the trend and outlook are still bullish. In case gold is sold below 2,645 USD it will tend to decrease further to retest the 0.618% Fibonacci level without affecting the main uptrend. Looking ahead, the trend and prospect of gold is technically bullish and the notable points will be listed as follows. Support: 2,645USD Resistance: 2,672 – 2,685USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2696 - 2694⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2700 →Take Profit 1 2689 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2684 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2624 - 2626⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2620 →Take Profit 1 2631 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2636
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
Fundamental factors have the main impact on the WTI trendTVC:USOIL ended up slightly higher last Friday but fell more than 3% for the week as markets gauged expectations for increased global supply and considered new stimulus measures from major countries in Asia, which import leading crude oil exporter. - On one hand, OPEC+ plans to start increasing production in December, which has been particularly suppressive on oil prices and was the main negative factor for the oil market last week. - On the other hand, the withdrawal of many stimulus policies by major powers, expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further and the escalating conflict in the Middle East still provide some support for oil prices. Central banks of major Asian countries cut reserve requirements and interest rates last Friday, and governments of major Asian countries are launching a final round of stimulus to boost growth. The economy returns to the target of about 5% this year. Israel said it bombed Houthi rebel targets in Yemen on Sunday (September 29) and continued airstrikes in Lebanon, expanding its alliance with Iran in the region two days after killing the leader of Hezbollah. Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah during the confrontation. On the daily chart, TVC:USOIL Currently trading quite stable after recovering from the support level of 67.26USD. Note to readers in the previous issue. The recovery momentum is also being limited by the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level and the horizontal resistance level of 69.31USD. However, looking at the overall technical picture, WTI crude oil is having more bearish conditions with the main trend from the price channel, pressure from EMA21 and weak recovery momentum when the RSI Strength Index turns down. price reduction signal. In the near term, if WTI crude oil continues to be sold below the important technical level at 67.26USD it is likely to continue to decline more with a target level of 65.25USD. Even if WTI crude oil recovers further, it will still be limited by the EMA21, the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level and the upper edge of the price channel. The bearish trend in WTI crude oil dominates the daily technical chart, and notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 67.26USD Resistance: 68.74 – 69.31USD
TVC:USOILShort
by Xayah_trading