Get started

Xayahtrading

USDJPY trending down, Yen supported by BOJ attitudeAlthough US non-farm data in August was not as expected. But the Bank of Japan has recently taken a hawkish stance on interest rate hikes, which has also significantly helped the yen's recovery. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday that nonfarm payrolls increased by 142,000 jobs last month, while July's gain was revised down to 89,000. On the weekly chart of OANDA:USDJPY The downtrend still prevails but is temporarily limited by the technical level of 141,682. Note to readers in the previous issue for USD/JPY. Although USD/JPY is recovering, the weekly trend is being shaped by the price channel and once USD/JPY breaks below the 0.618% Fibonacci level it will be eligible to continue falling with the next target level being possible. can reach 134,526 price points of fibonancci 0.786%. As long as USD/JPY remains within the price channel and below the EMA21, the main outlook remains bearish and the recovery levels should only be considered a short-term technical correction. In addition, the confluence point between the upper edge of the price channel and the 0.50% Fibonacci level will be the current closest resistance. USD/JPY downtrend will have important positions in trading as follows. Support: 141,682 – 140,401 Resistance: 144,528 – 147,120
Short
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Sep 09 - Sep 13]This week, international gold prices fell from 2,507 USD/oz to 2,471 USD/oz in the first sessions of the week. After that, gold price recovered to 2,529 USD/oz, then dropped to 2,485 USD/oz and closed this week at 2,497 USD/oz. Recent US economic data has played an important role in shaping developments in the gold market. The US August jobs report fell short of expectations. While economists predicted 160,000 new jobs would be created in August, the actual number was only 142,000 jobs. However, the published data was lower than forecast but still higher than the previous period. The US unemployment rate in August decreased slightly from 4.3% to 4.2%. But this is still high compared to the 3.8% rate recorded a year ago. These labor market figures, along with recent US inflation reports, have reinforced expectations that the Fed is about to cut interest rates. This prediction is further fueled by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's statement at the Jackson Hole Conference on August 24, in which he noted that it is time for monetary policy to adjust. In the medium and long term, many economic experts believe that gold prices will increase sharply because the more the FED cuts interest rates, the more the USD and US Treasury bond yields will weaken, increasing the appeal of gold. . Furthermore, central banks have been and are continuing to buy gold reserves. Technically, there is no debate about the uptrend of gold as the Weekly time frame technical chart clearly shows this. However, this rising wave is reaching the resistance level around the fibo expansion mark at fibo 161.8. In theory, it is possible that the price reaching this mark will have reversal phases, which are corrective declines to consolidate the uptrends. next bullish period. The next fibo milestone will be around 2,590-3,000 usd/oz. Next week, the market will pay attention to US August CPI data, and the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy meeting. 📌Currently, considering the H4 technical chart, the gold price is still moving sideways in a wide range, specifically fluctuating from 2,470 - 2,530 usd/oz. If the resistance level of 2530 is broken, in the immediate future the gold price will rise around the round resistance level of 2600. In case the support level of 2470 is broken, the gold price will fall back to around the threshold of 2,430 USD/oz. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2.500 – 2.503 – 2.530USD Resistance: 2.484 – 2.470USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2591 - 2589⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2595 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2429 - 2431⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2425
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
Outlook for new era level, most important data of the weekOANDA:XAUUSD remains in a strong uptrend after yesterday's breakout, an outlook for a new bull run and weekly target levels. On this trading day, the market will receive the most important data of the week and will create major fluctuations in the entire financial market in general, and the gold market in particular. On Thursday, as weak US ADP jobs data weighed on the US Dollar, gold futures broke out strongly towards the weekly target level. The United States releases the ADP jobs report on Thursday, showing private sector employment rose by a seasonally adjusted 99,000 in August, a new low since January 2021, lower many expected and months before. Today (Friday), the market will receive the US nonfarm payrolls report for August. Surveys show the number of nonfarm workers in the United States is expected to increase by a seasonally adjusted 160,000 in August, following an increase of 114,000 in July. Investors also need to closely monitor US unemployment data. Surveys show the US unemployment rate is expected to fall to 4.2% from 4.3% in August. If the unemployment rate in August is equal to or higher than July, gold prices will receive important fundamental support due to the possibility that the Fed will cut interest rates even more sharply, which could completely push up gold prices. all-time high or refresh all-time high. On the other hand, if non-farm payroll data is lower than expected or equal to the previous month, gold prices will be strongly supported by this when both employment data and unemployment rate are released at the same time. The current basic trend of gold will still maintain an uptrend when supported by most macroeconomic conditions such as geopolitical risks with many potential driving forces for price increases, supported by the path of policy changes of the Government. Fed and the weakening of the USD as well as US bond yields. The basic picture will shape the trend for quite a long time, but it will be the main trend that shapes all technical changes. Analysis of technical prospects for CITYINDEX:XAUUSD Gold is still aiming for the weekly upside price target presented to readers in Sunday's weekly edition, and as price activity is above the 0.786% Fibonacci extension it should qualify for a bullish outlook. in short term. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index is pointing up but still quite far from the overbought level, showing that there is still wide room for price growth ahead. As long as gold remains above the EMA21, within the price channel and above the 0.786% Fibonacci level, it is still trending up in the short term. More broadly, as long as gold remains within the price channel, any pullback should be considered a technical correction and not the primary trend. During the day, the rising prospect of gold prices will be noticed by the following levels. Support: 2,503 – 2,500USD Resistance: 2,531 – 2,544USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2533 - 2531⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2537 →Take Profit 1 2526 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2521 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2496 - 2498⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2492 →Take Profit 1 2503 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2508
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD corrects, recovers and stabilizesOANDA:XAUUSD recovered and stabilized after a significant correction yesterday. At one point, gold dropped sharply by about 33 US Dollars, but up to now, the recovery momentum has helped gold return to a short-term technical uptrend. The August manufacturing PMI index released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Tuesday remained below 50, a sign of economic slowdown. However, the employment component of the report improved slightly. ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 47.2 from 46.8 in August, below expectations of 47.5. After the release of the ISM report, US 10-year Treasury yields (US10Y) fell, leading to a weakening of the USD. Affected by the decline in US bond yields and the USD, gold prices recovered after hitting a low of 2,473 USD/ounce. This week will continue to be highly volatile due to the impact of a series of US economic data with the release of JOLTS job openings, ADP employment changes and non-farm payrolls (NFP) data to be released. • JOLTS U.S. job openings are expected to be 8.1 million in July, down from 8.184 million in June. • US ADP employment growth in August is expected to increase to 150,000 from 122,000 in July. • In addition, employment growth in US non-farm payrolls in August is expected to increase from 114,000 to 163,000, while the unemployment rate may decrease from 4.3% to 4.2%. If the US jobs report is weaker than expected, it will prompt market assessments of faster interest rate cuts to reappear, which will further support gold prices and continue to create pressure on investors. with USD. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, although gold had a significant correction decline in yesterday's trading session, on the daily chart, the gold price still has enough room to rise, as it receives support from the confluence area of EMA21, Fibonacci extension 0.618% and the bottom edge of the price channel, a very important area for the short-term uptrend was noticed by readers in a short comment yesterday. In the short term, if gold moves above the 0.786% Fibonacci extension level, there will be conditions for a new bullish cycle and the upside outlook for the weekly target is fixed at 2,531 – 2,544USD. As long as gold remains above the EMA21, and within the price channel, it remains technically bullish in the short term. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index is showing signs of bending and pointing up, a signal that the bullish outlook is becoming positive. During the day, gold's uptrend is noted by the same technical levels. Support: 2,471 – 2,484USD Resistance: 2,500 – 2,503USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2516 - 2514⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2520 →Take Profit 1 2509 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2504 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2459 - 2461⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2455 →Take Profit 1 2466 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2471
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Jobs data is coming, GOLD recovers around 2,500USDOANDA:XAUUSD continues to recover significantly after a sharp adjustment at the beginning of the week, fueled by lower economic data that means the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates more aggressively in the near future. On this trading day (Thursday), the market will receive the release of ADP employment data, which is expected to buck short-term trends. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released Wednesday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the number of job openings fell to 7.67 million from a downward revision. 7.91 million last month. Data were below expectations of all expected surveys. The JOLTS job vacancy report was one of the labor force indicators that U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen valued most when she was chair of the Federal Reserve. This index is also labor market data that the Fed is very interested in. Readers can refer to the fact that the Fed has recently mentioned a lot about employment issues, by most important officials. The US employment change (ADP) report, initial jobless claims and nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report will be released later this week. This trading day the market will first pay attention to the US ADP data, which will continue the important data week and provide short-term trends. US ADP employment growth in August is expected to increase to 150,000 from 122,000 in July. Additionally, U.S. nonfarm payrolls job growth in August is expected to increase from 114,000 to 163,000, while the unemployment rate could fall from 4.3% to 4.2%. If jobs data is weaker than expected, this will continue to push gold prices higher and create pressure on the USD. Employment data has been closely watched so far, but in this period it will be even more important because it is a visible "directional arrow" to evaluate the path of interest rate cuts by the Reserve. United States of America. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold remains stable with the main uptrend in the short, medium and long term. After receiving support from the key confluence area noted by readers in the previous issue at the 0.618% Fibonacci extension, EMA21 and the lower edge of the price channel, it rose to reach the recovery target level. initial price point at 2,500USD. Looking ahead, if gold manages to move above the $2,500 base price and break above the 0.786% Fibonacci extension it would qualify for a weekly upside target of $2,531 in the short term and beyond to 2,544USD. During the day, the bullish outlook for gold prices remains unchanged at notable levels and will be listed for readers as follows. Support: 2,484 – 2,471USD Resistance: 2,500 – 2,503 – 2,531USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2516 - 2514⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2520 →Take Profit 1 2509 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2504 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2459 - 2461⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2455 →Take Profit 1 2466 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2471
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
Data Week, attention to jobs gets special attention from the FedOANDA:XAUUSD fell about 1% as the USD and US Treasury bond yields increased sharply after US inflation data matched expectations over the weekend. However, as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut policy in September and geopolitical tensions still pose many risks, gold still has a lot of potential fundamental support. Gold prices closed slightly lower last week but still maintained the 2,500 USD/ounce mark. This week, investors will receive US ISM data and non-farm payrolls reports, which are expected to cause major fluctuations in the gold market. The latest data released by the US Department of Commerce showed that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.2% last month, in line with economists' forecasts. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East have boosted safe-haven demand for gold. Signs of steady buying from central banks in emerging markets also supported prices. Also notable is data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showing that as of the week of August 27, speculative net long positions in COMEX gold futures contracts increased 69 lots to 236,818 lots. Next Tuesday, the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August will be a highlight in US economic data in the early days of the week. The market expects the overall PMI to rise to 47.8 from 46.8 in July. If the index is above 50, that could directly boost the US dollar and put pressure on gold in the short term. ADP employment changes and ISM services PMI data will also be released on Wednesday and Thursday, but the market reaction to these data is likely to be immediate and short-lived. A positive surprise data will support the USD and negative data pressure the USD ahead of the widely anticipated August jobs report next Friday. US nonfarm payrolls (NFP), due out next Friday, are expected to increase by 163,000 in August after a disappointing increase of 114,000 in July. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 4.2 % from 4.3% and wage inflation, measured by changes in average hourly earnings, is expected to increase 0.3% from the previous month. NFP data next week will be the main focus, because during the Jackson Hole conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and other members also focused a lot on employment data in the near future. It is expected that next week the market will have significant turbulence when NFP data will be the center of the big storm. Economic data to watch this week Tuesday: US ISM Manufacturing PMI Wednesday: Bank of Canada monetary policy meeting, US JOLTS vacancies Thursday: ADP employment data; US ISM services PMI, US weekly initial jobless claims Friday: US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Data Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Although gold had a correction late last week, overall the daily chart of gold prices still shows a solid uptrend. With the price channel making an upward trend in the short term, as long as gold remains in the price channel and above the EMA21 moving average, it still has the potential to increase in price in the near future, with targets still being fixed at 2,531USD in the short term and more to the point of 2,544USD. Although the Relative Strength Index is pointing down, it has not yet reached the overbought level before turning down, and the slope is negligible, so this is not considered a signal of pressure and support. for this Indicator is noted at 50%. The fact that gold closed above 2,484 USD and the original price level of 2,500 USD shows a positive technical outlook, and the uptrend in the near future will be noticed again by the following price points. Support: 2,500 – 2,484USD Resistance: 2,531 – 2,544USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2551 - 2549⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2555 →Take Profit 1 2544 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2539 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2512 - 2514⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2517 →Take Profit 1 2505 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2495 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2484 - 2486⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2479 →Take Profit 1 2489 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2494 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2470 - 2472⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2467 →Take Profit 1 2475 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2494
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD accumulates with an overall upward trendOANDA:XAUUSD decreased again, after yesterday's recovery and the market in general is still accumulating with an upward trend both fundamentally and technically. At the Asian session on August 30, as of the time this article was completed, gold was trading at about 2,513USD/oz, a decrease equivalent to more than 7 dollars on the day and about 0.31%. Investors are awaiting data on US PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation measure. At 19:30 Hanoi time today (Friday), US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price data for July will be published, which may provide further assessment of the pace of rate cuts in September, including the pace of the upcoming rate cut cycle. Surveys show the US PCE price index is expected to rise 0.2% monthly in July, after rising 0.1% in June. The US PCE price index is expected to increase at an annual rate of 2.6% in July, following a 2.5% increase in June. In terms of core data, the survey shows that the US core PCE price index in July is expected to increase 0.2% month-on-month, after increasing 0.2% in June; increased at an annual rate of 2.7%, compared with a 2.6% increase the previous month. As the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, year-over-year changes in the core PCE price index have a larger impact on policymakers. From a technical perspective, the technical structure has not changed throughout the past week and readers can review this week's most recent publications below. The target for the week remains unchanged for gold to surpass its all-time high of $2,531 and refresh its new all-time target of $2,544. During the day, the technical prospect of gold price increase will be noticed again by the following price levels. Support: 2,503 – 2,500 – 2,484USD Resistance: 2,531 – 2,544USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2551 - 2549⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2555 →Take Profit 1 2544 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2539 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2482 - 2484⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2478 →Take Profit 1 2489 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2494
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Positive technical position, GOLD will pay attention to US PCEFinancial markets in general are closely watching key inflation data from the world's largest economy for clues about the scale of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in September. PCE data by The US release on Friday will also be the main data focus this week. With an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September almost certain, attention also turns to the pace of future adjustments, and how intense they will be. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market is pricing in a 65.5% chance of the US cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September and a 34.5% chance of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points. Investors are now awaiting US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data released on Friday. If Friday's PCE data is lower than expected, it could fuel expectations of a more dovish Fed, creating bullish potential for gold. And even if the PCE is higher than expected, it won't change the outlook for a Fed rate cut in September, so a higher-than-expected increase in PCE would only be temporary. limit the upward momentum of gold prices, or create short-term corrections that do not fundamentally affect the main uptrend. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold remains stable with near-term bullish conditions despite a sudden short-term correction yesterday that did not affect the technical uptrend. The structure has not changed with an uptrend in both the short, medium and long term with the short-term trend being noticed by the price channel and the 21-day moving average (EMA21). The fact that gold remains above the 0.786% Fibonacci extension is a positive factor for the bullish price target noticed by readers in the weekly publication at 2,531 USD in the short term, more than the level of 2,544 USD. The relative strength index (RSI) is pointing up but has not yet reached the overbought level, showing that there is still a bit more room for price increases. As long as gold remains within the price channel, declines should only be considered a short-term correction and a short-term buying opportunity. During the day, the technical prospect of gold price increase will be noticed again by the following price levels. Support: 2,503 – 2,500 – 2,484USD Resistance: 2,531 – 2,544USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2521 - 2519⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2525 →Take Profit 1 2514 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2509 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2482 - 2484⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2478 →Take Profit 1 2489 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2494
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD is supported, Powell is dovish, geopolitics is complicatedWith the impact of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish comments, the USD continued to be less attractive and gold returned to closing weekly above the original price of 2,500 USD, opening up a positive outlook for the following week. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Friday that it is time to adjust policy, signaling that an interest rate cut is imminent. This can be considered the strongest signal of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's interest rate cut. And of course that is enough for gold to continue to increase in price. Quoting Powell: "The time to adjust policy has come. Confidence that inflation is heading towards 2% has increased. We do not seek or welcome further cooling in the labor market. We will do so." everything possible to support the labor market and get there." New geopolitical point According to Israeli media reports, an Israeli air force control tower on Mount Melon in northern Israel was attacked by Hezbollah missiles, with one missile fired directly at the facility. Israel has carried out a series of attacks in southern Lebanon in recent times. However, hopes for an agreement faded when Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas blamed each other and failed to reach an agreement after more than 10 months of war in the Gaza Strip. Ongoing geopolitical tensions have reinforced gold's status as a safe-haven asset, and ongoing global instability has prompted investors to turn to gold to seek protection from market risks and fluctuations. As these tensions continue to increase, gold prices will receive even more support. Main basic focus Overall, the gold market is currently fully supported fundamentally, with the USD having a weaker future as the Fed's interest rate cut time approaches, and the cutting cycle will last longer. not ending soon or just a short-term adjustment. On the other hand, geopolitical developments are more complicated with prolonged wars in Ukraine - Russia and the Gaza Strip,... is also a very important factor promoting safe haven psychology, gold is known as a valuable asset. The most effective communication shelter. Overall, in a simpler way, in the long run, gold will continue to have a basic upward trend, even when the geopolitical conflict cools down, which will only create short-term profit taking. In the coming time, the Chinese Central Bank will likely reduce the amount of physical gold purchases in the second half of the year and will focus more on gold ETF purchases, and this should be considered a solid support move when China China is the world's leading gold user and hoarder along with India. Data focus this week The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will release July personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index data next Friday, which is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. Higher than expected data could be seen as a supportive move for the USD in the short term, while lower or equal data is expected to continue to support gold prices higher into the end of next week. Additionally, US GDP data on Thursday could also bring some volatility to the market. The economic calendar needs attention this week Monday: US durable goods orders Tuesday: US consumer confidence Thursday: Weekly unemployment claims, US second-quarter preliminary GDP Friday: US PCE index Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold continued to close above the $2,500 raw price after receiving support and a post-corrective recovery from the 0.618% Fibonacci extension and the $2,484 technical level acting as the closest support for short-term uptrend. The overall chart still shows that gold has all the technical conditions for an uptrend in the long, medium and short term with the long-term trend being noticed by the price channel and medium-term support from the EMA21 along with the trend. short-term from the price channel. As long as gold remains within the price channel, it still has a bullish outlook in the short term, with the weekly close above the 0.786% Fibonacci level, next week's uptrend will be directed towards $2,531 in the short term and more than 2,544USD. The level of 2,544USD will still be the target for price increases in the near future. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index is pointing up without reaching the overbought level, showing that there is still technical room for price increases to be achieved. the above mentioned goals. In the coming time, the uptrend of gold will be noticed by the following price levels. Support: 2,503 – 2,500 – 2,484USD Resistance: 2,531 – 2,544USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2548 - 2546⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2552 →Take Profit 1 2541 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2536 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2493 - 2495⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2489 →Take Profit 1 2500 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2505
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD has corrections near record highs, main trendAfter Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave a dovish signal, the market has finished pricing in an interest rate cut in September. At the same time, gold continues to be supported by safe-haven demand Due to geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Ukraine, gold prices are making certain adjustments near record highs. Last Friday, Mr. Powell supported the impending interest rate cut, saying that the continued cooling of the job market would not be positive and this is notable support that is easy to see. for gold in the current situation. Gold is a notable example where geopolitical risk aversion increases investor demand for safe-haven assets. • Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah fired rockets at each other over the weekend in one of the biggest border clashes in more than 10 months. Hezbollah fired hundreds of missiles and drones into Israel early Sunday morning, and the Israeli military said to prevent a larger attack, it used about 100 warplanes to attack. Lebanon. Top US generals said on Monday that the short-term risk of a wider war in the Middle East had diminished following a firefight between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah, according to the latest news at Reuters. • On Monday morning, explosions occurred in many places across Ukraine. Ukraine's military has warned of a large-scale Russian missile and drone attack, following a wave of early morning drone attacks. The Ukrainian military said 11 Russian TU-95 strategic bombers were flying in the air and confirmed they had launched multiple missiles. The Kyiv Post said Russia launched the largest missile attack since the Russia-Ukraine war, and thousands of people in Kiev poured into the metro station. Although gold has adjusted downward, the basic factors still show that the upward trend in prices will continue to dominate the gold market and the basic trend in the near future. With support from policy, interest rate directions as well as geopolitical risks continue to appear new. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold is experiencing bearish corrections during the Asian session today, Tuesday August 27 but the technical trend remains unchanged with conditions tilted strongly towards a bullish outlook. In the short term, as long as gold remains above the original price of $2,500 and the 0.786% Fibonacci extension, it still has bullish prospects with a short-term target of $2,531 and more to the $2,544 level. However, in case the 0.786% Fibonacci level is broken below, the impact of the technical correction could go a little deeper with a target drop to $2,484 in the short term. During the day, the upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged and notable levels are listed as follows. Support: 2,503 – 2,500 – 2,484USD Resistance: 2,531 – 2,544USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2548 - 2546⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2552 →Take Profit 1 2541 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2536 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2493 - 2495⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2489 →Take Profit 1 2500 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2505
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD could still rally, even if PCE is higher than expectedThe weakening US Dollar, dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and geopolitical developments will still be the main driving forces driving gold prices to increase in the near future fundamentally. Last Friday, Mr. Powell said “it is time to adjust policy,” sending a strong signal about cutting interest rates. Rising tensions in the Middle East are also creating momentum for gold prices to recover. The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah escalated over the weekend and concerns that the conflict could widen will be a factor in boosting gold prices. On Tuesday, White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said that the United States believes Iran is “ready” to take retaliatory actions against Israel, so the United States has increased its military deployment. in the area. The US message to Iran is not to retaliate against Israel and there is no reason to escalate the situation or provoke a regional war, but if Iran attacks Israel, the US is ready to defend Israel. According to CME's FedWatch tool, traders see a 65.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in September and about a 34.5% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut. The market is now awaiting the release of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data, the key inflation report and the Fed's preferred inflation measure, on Friday. A surprise higher-than-expected inflation data could impact Fed policy expectations, but the Fed will certainly cut interest rates in September and could cut rates again this year. . Therefore, even if data shows a return of inflation, it will not be considered a pressure on gold, and may be an opportunity for a short-term correction in gold prices, opening up opportunities for those who wait buy. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is correcting gently in early Asia today (Wednesday, August 28) to 2,517USD/oz, equivalent to a decrease of about 0.29% as of the time of writing. However, the technical structure does not have any changes with the tendency to increase both the value in the short term and on average over a number of periods. In the short term, the gold zone remains above the 0.786% Fibobacci extension level, it still develops a bullish outlook towards the target of interest when you read the weekly output at 2,531USD in the short term, more Another 2,544 USD. There aren't any negative signs for gold prices and the intraday bullish trend will be noticed by the following notable devices. Support: 2,503 – 2,500USD Resistance: 2,531 – 2,544USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2561 - 2559⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2565 →Take Profit 1 2554 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2549 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2482 - 2484⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2478 →Take Profit 1 2489 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2494
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
WTI is less affected by conflictAs tensions in the Middle East continue to emerge, oil prices may continue to be supported by short-term geopolitical risks. However, this sudden impact is gradually easing. Next, crude oil traders should still pay attention to the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision and further developments in the Middle East. Ceasefire talks in Cairo between Israel and Palestinian militia Hamas went ahead as scheduled on Sunday, showing relative calm after the exchange of fire. Israel eased security restrictions in the country on Sunday evening, hours after previously declaring a state of emergency and closing the main airport. Although the Middle East supplies about a third of the world's crude oil, oil market fundamentals have not been significantly affected by this conflict. Mainly for crude oil traders, they will still need to pay attention to the principle of supply and demand in the market "usually regulated by OPEC", and monetary policies related to USD when WTI crude oil is traded. priced in USD. Geopolitical risks and expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates next month combined to push WTI crude oil prices to a recovery late last week. In a speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave the clearest signal yet that the job of containing inflation is complete, saying “the time has come for change.” policy", reinforcing market expectations of a possible interest rate cut next month. On the daily chart, TVC:USOIL is still limited by pressure from the 21-day moving average (EMA21) and is still in a falling price channel. Although WTI crude oil has recovered significantly, current technical conditions are still more bearish than bullish, with a new bearish cycle possibly being ushered in as it falls. below the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, and the latter target is 72.32 in the short term and above that is 71.68SUSD. Meanwhile, for WTI crude oil to have enough bullish conditions, it would at least need to break above the technical level that acts as horizontal resistance at 77.58USD confluence with the upper edge of the price channel, then the short-term target is around 78.11USD and more than 79.62USD. The relative strength index (RSI) is showing signs of bending after recovering to the 50% level and this should be seen as a signal that there is still further downside ahead. During the day, the technical outlook for WTI crude oil is more bearish and notable levels are listed below. Support: 74.71 – 72.32SUSD Resistance: 75.66 – 76.59 – 77.58USD
TVC:USOIL
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [26 August - 30 August]This week, international OANDA:XAUUSD continued to increase quite strongly from 2,485 USD/oz to 2,531 USD/oz. After that, the gold price dropped to 2,470 USD/oz, then increased to 2,518 USD/oz and closed at 2,512 USD/oz. Gold prices continued to rise sharply this week because FED Chairman Powell signaled his readiness to cut interest rates in the upcoming meetings at the Jackson Hole Conference. Mr. Powell said that it is time for interest rates to be adjusted downward to support economic recovery. Although Mr. Powell did not specify a specific timeline or scale of interest rate cuts in upcoming meetings, he emphasized that FED officials are laying the foundation for looser monetary policy. In the context that the FED will certainly cut interest rates in the upcoming meeting, many experts believe that short-term gold prices may continue to increase even higher. However, it may be difficult for gold prices to avoid times when investors take profits, causing gold prices to have downward corrections. Next week, the gold market will focus on the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE) for July; GDP in the second quarter; Consumer confidence... In particular, PCE is expected to increase only 0.2%; GDP remains at 2.8% as initially forecast. If as predicted, these data will not have much impact on gold prices next week. 📌Technically, technical indicators are still showing an upward trend in gold prices in the short term. Accordingly, the important support level for gold prices next week is at 2,470 USD/oz. Meanwhile, if it exceeds 2,530 USD/oz, next week's gold price will widen its path towards the 2,590-2,600 USD/oz range. The trading plan for next week will be to sell around the 2590 mark and buy if the price drops to 2442. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2.470USD Resistance: 2.600 – 2.530USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2591 - 2589⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2595 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2441 - 2443⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2437
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD recovered after adjustmentOANDA:XAUUSD spot has adjusted down below the original price mark of 2,500SUSD and is trying to recover. This trading day, investors will have new information from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech, which is expected to cause a major fluctuation in the gold market. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Thursday showed that the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States for the week of August 17 was higher than expected and previous figures. . Data from S&P Global showed business activity remained steady even as US manufacturing activity fell for a second straight month. US manufacturing PMI fell to 48.0 again in August; Services PMI increased to 55.2, exceeding expectations. U.S. Treasury yields rose on Thursday, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield in particular rising 6.5 basis points to 3.865%. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the USD against six other currencies, rose and profit-taking could be the main reason gold prices fell below $2,500/ounce ahead of Trump's speech. Powell. Previously, the minutes of the final meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Wednesday unexpectedly showed that the "vast majority" of FOMC participants supported easing policy at the September meeting. if the data matches expectations. The minutes show that policymakers are increasingly convinced that inflation risks are tilted to the downside, while risks to achieving maximum employment have increased. The "Jackson Hole Symposium", the annual meeting of global central banks, will be held starting Friday and the market focus will shift to the Federal Reserve Chairman's speech Jerome Powell at today's meeting (Surday). Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech in Jackson Hole is expected to lay the foundation for monetary policy direction for the remainder of 2024. Today (Friday), Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a speech on the economic outlook at the annual meeting in Jackson Hole. Traders need to pay close attention to this event, because it will bring much stronger volatility. In a context where the market is unpredictable and increases and decreases of 2-3% are no longer strange or rare, traders need to be prepared for scenarios of price movements of 2-3% in the short term. short time. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, although gold has corrected below its original price of $2,500, the downside momentum has been limited and recovered from the 0.618% trend-following Fibonacci extension above $2,484, continuing support from the support level of 2,484USD towards a short-term increase at 2,500USD. As long as gold remains within the price channel, it still tends to increase in the short term, while the long-term trend is fixed by the price channel and medium-term support from EMA21. In the immediate future, the target will be 2,500 – 2,503 USD, the area of ​​​​the 0.786% Fibonacci extension. Once gold breaks the 0.786% Fibonacci level it will continue to qualify for a bullish outlook with the next target after that at around $2,531, more so than $2,544. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices remains unchanged with the main trend being bullish and notable points are listed as follows. Support: 2,484 – 2,471USD Resistance: 2,500 – 2,503 – 2,510USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2502 - 2500⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2506 →Take Profit 1 2495 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2490 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2461 - 2463⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2457 →Take Profit 1 2468 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2473
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
4
GOLD corrects, accumulates around 2,500 USD, still positiveOANDA:XAUUSD adjusted slightly downward during the early Asian trading session on August 22, maintaining price activity around the original price of 2,500USD. But overall, the overall picture still shows that gold is fully supported and the price drops are only corrective after a long period of price increases. Minutes of the Federal Reserve's meeting released Wednesday showed policymakers were inclined to cut interest rates in September, and some participants believed the conditions for a rate cut had been set. Available in July. “Some believe that recent developments in inflation and rising unemployment support a 25 basis point reduction in the policy rate target range at the meeting,” the meeting minutes said. or they may support such a decision. If data continue to be in line with expectations, further policy easing at the next meeting may be appropriate.” The current U.S. unemployment rate is higher than the 4% unemployment rate that Federal Reserve officials predicted this year in their updated economic forecast in June. It is also higher than the unemployment rate. 4.2% that Fed policymakers expect by the end of next year. Additionally, revised nonfarm payrolls data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Wednesday showed that the number of people employed in the United States over the past year through March was initially revised down to 818,000, here This is the largest downward adjustment since 2009. This trading day, traders will need to focus on US economic data, with initial jobless claims, PMI data from S&P Global and US housing data. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the US is expected to increase to 230,000 in the week of August 17, up from 227,000 the previous week. Business activity data published by S&P Global shows that the preliminary value of the US services PMI in August will decrease slightly from 55 to 54. The preliminary value of manufacturing PMI in August is expected to remain unchanged. changed at 49.6. In addition, US existing home sales in July are expected to increase from 3.89 million units to 3.93 million units. However, all macro focus will be on tomorrow's event, when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak at the start of the Jackson Hole Symposium. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, although gold continues to adjust cumulatively around the original price of 2,500 USD, in general the short, medium and long-term trends remain unchanged with an overall uptrend. On the other hand, gold is also maintaining above the 0.786% Fibonacci extension level and this is considered a positive signal for gold to continue towards its next short-term targets of around 2,531USD in the short term and beyond. target level 2,544USD. Even in the event that gold is sold below the 0.786% Fibonacci extension, it will still receive support from the previously broken era high of $2,484. During the day, the trend of gold prices did not change with an uptrend and the Relative Strength Index has not yet reached the overbought level, showing that there is still room for growth. Notable technical levels for the intraday uptrend are listed below. Support: 2,500 – 2,484USD Resistance: 2,531 – 2,544USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2553 - 2551⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2557 →Take Profit 1 2546 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2541 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2468 - 2470⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2464 →Take Profit 1 2475 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2480
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD slows down but the trend remains unchangedUS dollar falls to 7-month low and yen hits one-week high, Federal Reserve's Kashkari (hawkish) says he is optimistic about interest rate cuts, a a change from the official's stance in June. OANDA:XAUUSD Spots hit another record high on Monday, and although they later fell, a weaker US dollar and tensions in the Middle East limited the extent of the correction. TVC:DXY , which tracks the US dollar against six major currencies, fell to 101.97 and touched 101.85, its lowest since January 2, on Monday's trading day. The market's focus will be on whether Powell's speech in Jackson Hole on Friday indicates that the Fed could cut interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points. Another key focus will be whether Powell signals that a rate cut is possible at each meeting. Powell also may not be in a hurry to release details this week, as August employment and inflation data have yet to be released before the Fed's September meeting. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari of the Federal Reserve, recently stated that he is open to cutting interest rates at the next meeting due to the growing possibility of excessive labor market weakness. This is a change from his stance in June. Kashkari said the discussion about cutting interest rates has changed because “inflation is progressing and the labor market is showing some worrying signs.” He believes there is no reason to cut interest rates by more than 25 basis points because the layoff rate remains low and the number of people applying for unemployment benefits is not showing a clear worsening trend. Geopolitically Russia's Investigative Committee announced on Monday that a bridge on the Sem river, which flows through the Kursk region, was destroyed in a Ukrainian attack. The Ukrainian military said the attack was aimed at disrupting Russian supply lines and making it more difficult to mobilize Russian troops and weapons. Later, Ukrainian President Zelensky elaborated on his goals, saying in his speech: "Now, the top priority in our overall defense operations is to destroy the as much of Russia's war potential as possible and carry out maximum counter-offensive operations. This includes establishing a buffer zone within Russia's territory." Hamas rejects the ceasefire agreement in the Middle East Hamas accused the US of "continuing the fight for Israel" after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had accepted transitional proposals for a ceasefire in Gaza and called on Palestinian groups to do the same on one's own. However, Hamas spokesman Osama Hamdan said the Palestinian group would only “agree to implement” Biden's UN Security Council-backed proposal, which was accepted last month. Medical sources said Israeli forces had killed at least 35 Palestinians in Gaza in the past 24 hours and Kamal Adwan Hospital warned that 11 children were at risk of death due to fuel shortages, which could lead to close the door. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After renewing its all-time peak, gold had certain but insignificant adjustments and maintained its price activity around the original price of 2,500 USD. In terms of structure on the daily chart, gold is still being supported for an uptrend with the main trend being noticed by the price channel and main support by EMA21. Meanwhile, the nearest support level is noticed in the area of ​​2,484 – 2,471 USD, sent to readers in the weekly publication. As long as gold remains above the 0.618% Fibonacci extension level, it still has short-term bullish prospects. On the other hand, once gold maintains stability above the 0.786% Fibonacci extension level, it will tend to continue to increase for a period of time. new period and the target after that is about 2,544USD. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices remains bullish. But traders also always need to be ready for strong and widespread fluctuations in the current market context. Notable price points are listed below. Support: 2,484 – 2,471USD Resistance: 2,503 – 2,509 – 2,544USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2536 - 2534⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2540 →Take Profit 1 2529 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2524 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2474 - 2476⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2470 →Take Profit 1 2481 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2486
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
WTI has a lot of technical pressureTVC:USOIL weakened in early trading in Asian markets on Monday (August 19), fluctuating near its lowest level in more than a week. Currently WTI crude oil is trading around 75 USD/barrel. That added to traders' concerns about falling demand in the Asian giant, where refiners cut crude processing capacity last month amid sluggish fuel demand. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) last week lowered its forecast for oil demand growth this year due to weakness in the Asian giant's economy. The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) last Tuesday lowered its oil demand growth forecast for 2025, citing weak demand from major countries in Asia. On the other hand, according to the Lebanese National News Agency, the Israel Defense Forces carried out airstrikes on the 18th. Lebanon's Hezbollah armed forces claimed to have attacked multiple targets in southern Lebanon, including Israeli military spy facilities. On the 18th, the Israeli army launched multiple attacks on several towns on the Lebanese side of the temporary border between Lebanon and Israel. Market sentiment this week will be determined by speeches from global central bankers at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium will be held from August 22 to 24 and Fed Chairman Powell will speak on the economic outlook on Friday as US inflation weakens but remains difficult and markets Weakened job market. Easing is imminent, but is unlikely to confirm continued expectations of significant interest rate cuts. On the daily chart, WTI USOIL moved narrowly after falling below the price channel and structurally it has not yet formed a specific trend. But technical factors are leaning more towards the possibility of price decline with the nearest resistance being noticed at the confluence area of ​​the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement and EMA21. As long as WTI crude oil cannot break and move above the 0.50% Fibonacci level, it does not have enough conditions for bullish expectations. Meanwhile, once WTI crude oil continues to be sold below the 0.236% Fibonacci level and returns to the price channel, it will open a new technical down cycle. The notable point is that the Relative Strength Index is pointing down from the 50 level but has not yet reached the oversold level, showing that there is still room for technical price declines ahead. During the day, the technical outlook for WTI crude oil leans towards a downside with notable levels listed as follows. Support: 75.71USD Resistance: 76.59 – 77.58USD
TVC:USOIL
by Xayah_trading
All-time high, GOLD prospects continue to increaseThe market fluctuated wildly in the past week, OANDA:XAUUSD skyrocketed from the week's low of 2,423USD to the weekend closing price of 2,508USD/oz and set a new all-time high. However, Iran could retaliate and attack Israel next week. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the annual meeting in Jackson Hole is a market highlight that could once again cause volatility. Next week, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve symposium in Jackson Hole. The focus will be on Friday, when Powell gives a keynote speech on the economic outlook. First, they want confirmation that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. But as the Fed faces risks to both inflation and employment through recent macro data, the next move and the pace The next rate cut will become more complicated and of course this will bring even more intense fluctuations in the market in general and gold trading in particular. The US economic calendar will not release any important data in the first half of next week. Next Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its July 30-31 meeting. At the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chairman Powell admitted there was “real discussion” about tapering interest rate at the July meeting. Investors will pay attention to comments surrounding interest rate cut discussions. If the minutes show some policymakers favor a sudden rate cut in July, the USD could face fresh selling pressure and gold continues to be supported and pushed to renew levels. all time. At the Jackson Hole meeting, even if Powell confirms a rate cut in September, it is unlikely to trigger a market reaction because such a decision is already fully priced in. In what could be a shock to markets, Powell will likely dismiss market expectations that the Fed could cut policy rates by 50 basis points at a future meeting, noting that they could will loosen policy at a steady pace. In this scenario, US Treasury bond yields could rise higher, putting gold prices under pressure to adjust in the short term. Powell will likely use his speech in Jackson Hole to announce that the 'appropriate' time to cut interest rates is approaching. With the support of the approaching interest rate cut environment and the increasingly complicated geopolitical developments and successive escalating moves, basically, the gold price is being absolutely supported by investors. increasing trend. This has been mostly noticed by readers throughout the publications since the beginning of this year, all macro fundamentals will support gold to continue to increase in price, as it is a safe haven asset. leading in all cases of risk or monetary policy that does not support the USD. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD With outstanding strength from all fundamental factors, gold's technical chart also has all the important conditions necessary for an upward price trend. The main trend is highlighted by the price channel and support from EMA21, which was brought to your attention in recent publications. On the other hand, gold has rallied to break the plateau and stay above the $2,500 level after achieving last week's upside price target in the $2,500 - $2,505 area. The fact that gold closed above the 0.786% Fibonacci extension allows gold to continue to increase in price towards $2,544 in the short term when the Relative Strength Index points up but has not yet reached the overbought level. shows that there is still wide room for price increases ahead. However, in the current market context, traders must be ready for huge fluctuations, when gold can also face strong correction sessions with the nearest support being the The previous all-time peak was broken at 2,484 USD. In the coming time, gold will continue to have the main trend of increasing prices with notable technical levels that will be listed as follows. Support: 2,484 – 2,471USD Resistance: 2,544USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2541 - 2539 ⚰️SL: 2545 ⬆️TP1: 2534 ⬆️TP2: 2529 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2474 - 2476 ⚰️SL: 2470 ⬆️TP1: 2481 ⬆️TP2: 2486
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [19 August - 23 August]This week, international gold prices have increased quite strongly. After falling slightly to 2,432 USD/oz, international gold prices soared to over 2,500 USD/oz and closed the week at 2,507 USD/oz. International gold prices increased sharply this week because the market expected the FED to definitely cut interest rates at its September meeting. In addition, tensions between Israel and Iran have escalated, causing many investors to worry that this tension could lead to a war in the Middle East, increasing the haven demand for gold. In addition, the USD declined as the Atlantic Council's USD Dominance Monitor Report said the USD's share in global reserves reached 58% by 2024, down 14% compared to 2002 as many countries Countries, especially members of the BRICS bloc, seek to stay away from the USD. The focus for the gold market next week will be the Jackson Hole conference. The FED Chairman will provide assessments and updates on the US economy and the outlook for the FED's monetary policy. If at the Jackson Hole conference, the FED Chairman continues to affirm that he will cut interest rates in September, it may push gold prices higher next week. However, if the FED Chairman changes his tone again, saying that the FED needs to continue monitoring the economic situation before cutting interest rates, it will cause gold prices to decline next week. 📌Technically, on the H4 technical chart, the extended Fibonacci shows that the gold price can reach the Target around 2,590-2,600 USD/oz. Short-term trading plan for next week will be to buy if the price returns around 2470, and sell around 2590. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2.470 – 2.484USD Resistance: 2.4600 – 2.544USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2591 - 2589⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2595 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2469 - 2471⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2465
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [12 August - 16 August]This week, OANDA:XAUUSD continued to fall sharply on Monday due to the Nikkei index falling 12%, leading to a sharp decline in global stock markets, forcing investors to sell gold to supplement their deposits. stock investment. At one point, the international gold price dropped to 2,364 USD/oz. However, immediately after that, gold prices continuously recovered because investors expected the FED to cut interest rates by up to 50 basis points in September. Accordingly, gold price climbed to 2,436 USD/oz and closed at 2,430 USD/oz. This may be a stepping stone for gold price increases next week. In the coming week, there are quite a few important economic data that can strongly impact gold prices, such as the US Producer Price Index (PPI) released on Tuesday, followed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). ) announced on Wednesday, followed by retail sales, a preliminary survey of consumer sentiment by the University of Michigan for August... In which, PPI, CPI are forecast to continue to decrease slightly, creating favorable Conditions for the FED to cut interest rates next September may support gold prices next week. In addition, many FED officials, such as Mr. Bostic, Musalem, Harker, and Goolsbee, will give speeches on monetary policy. However, according to many experts, most of these officials support the FED in cutting interest rates. This is also considered one of the driving forces for gold prices next week. Technically, from a long-term perspective, gold prices still show an upward trend across time frames when prices are still above the moving average lines (EMA34, 89). However, a divergence signal has appeared on the D1 frame, while on the Weekly frame, the price of gold is quite far away from the EMA lines (the price can adjust to or move sideways with a wide range waiting to intersect with the average lines). The above 2 signals recommend that we should not join the buying side at this time. If we are buying, we should wait for price corrections. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2.408 – 2.400USD Resistance: 2.437 – 2.453 – 2.484USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2501 - 2499⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2505 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2374 - 2376⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2370
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD still has all the conditions for price increasesUS economic data was stronger than expected and markets predict these data could influence the extent of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The USD and US bond yields increased, causing gold prices to encounter some difficulties for expectations of price increases. OANDA:XAUUSD gave up gains earlier this week, after US inflation data showed inflation eased in July. However, gold remains near all-time highs set last month. Since the beginning of this year, gold prices have increased 19%, mainly due to optimistic market expectations about loosening monetary policies and gold purchasing activities of central banks. The latest data released by the United States shows that the core consumer price index (CPI) in July, which is a price index that excludes food and energy costs, fell to its lowest level compared to the same month last year. since the start of 2021. This suggests inflationary pressures have eased, supporting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next month. U.S. retail sales rose 1.0% last month after falling 0.2% in June, the U.S. Commerce Department's Census Bureau said. In particular, a report from the US Department of Labor showed that the number of Americans newly applying for unemployment benefits last week fell to its lowest level in a month. According to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 70.5% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 29.5%. The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively until November is 59.1%, the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 75 basis points cumulatively is 36.2%, and the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates The cumulative yield of 100 basis points is 4.8%. As a non-interest-paying asset, gold prices typically increase when interest rates fall. As inflation slows, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will increase, further boosting gold's appeal. In addition, gold purchasing activities of central banks around the world have also become reliable support for gold prices. In addition to monetary policy, geopolitical instability is also a major factor driving gold demand. Tensions in the Middle East and conflict between Russia and Ukraine have increased gold's appeal as a safe haven asset. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is slowing down after a string of highly volatile trading days with price activity around the key technical area of ​​$2,455 – $2,448. Although gold has strong downward corrections at times, in terms of the overall technical chart, it still has the main prospect of price increase. With the price channel as the main trend and main support from the EMA 21. The fact that gold keeps its price activity above the 0.50% Fibonacci extension level allows it to continue to increase with a short-term target of around 2,471USD, the price point of the 0.618% Fibonacci extension. As long as gold remains within the price channel and above the 21 EMA, its technical outlook remains bullish, while the Relative Strength Index has not yet reached overbought levels and is above 50 indicating There is still a lot of room for price increases ahead. Note: From 2023 until now, gold has had huge fluctuations because traders must always be ready for trading sessions with large amplitudes. Unlike previous years, when 2-3% trading days were very rare and it took a lot of time for gold to fluctuate like that. But in a market context with many sudden fundamental impacts, the price of gold can completely change 2-3% in just a few hours. The best advice is just to be patient and look for solid positions and strictly manage the trade size relative to the trading account. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices remains bullish with notable levels listed below. Support: 2,448 – 2,426USD Resistance: 2,471USD
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD recovers after adjustment by CPI dataOANDA:XAUUSD recovered after a slight decline when the latest US CPI report dampened expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates sharply next month. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released a report Wednesday saying the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year in July. Economists surveyed previously expected the index to increase 0.2% month-on-month and 3% year-on-year. Excluding food and energy costs, U.S. core CPI in July rose 0.2% month-on-month and 3.2% year-over-year, both in line with expectations. . The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's "Fed Tracker" shows that the market now expects a 35% chance of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September, compared with a 50% chance before the data release. US CPI data. However, a rate cut in September is a certainty; Current data shows that the Federal Reserve initially only intended to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which has disappointed markets where expectations for a 50 basis point cut were previously higher. Cutting interest rates will more or less bring support to gold prices when the USD loses important support from the high interest rate environment. On the other hand, the geopolitical situation still has many potential risks and gold is always a safe haven asset when geopolitical developments become complicated. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, although gold has corrected downwards before, maintaining price activity above the 0.50% Fibonacci extension is a positive signal for the short-term uptrend. In the immediate future, gold will be limited by the technical level of 2,455 USD noted by readers in yesterday's edition and once gold breaks this level, it has the potential to increase further to the target level then around. Fibonacci extension level 0.618%. In a negative case, gold could be sold below the $2,426 technical level if support at $2,448 is broken below. So traders who buy gold should be prepared for this scenario, but the main trend will still be bullish because 2,426USD is also the confluence of Fibonacci 0.382% and EMA21. As long as gold remains above the EMA21 and within the price channel, its technical outlook remains bullish with notable positions listed below. Support: 2,448 – 2,426USD Resistance: 2,471USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2461 - 2459 ⚰️SL: 2465 ⬆️TP1: 2454 ⬆️TP2: 2449 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2424 - 2426 ⚰️SL: 2420 ⬆️TP1: 2431 ⬆️TP2: 2436
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
Ready, focus on CPI data this trading dayThe US dollar and US bond yields rose slightly after US producer price data reinforced hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, while gold prices hovered near highs all-time record set in July. OANDA:XAUUSD attracted some profit-taking as it approached monthly highs tested earlier on Tuesday and pared Monday's sharp gain of more than 1%. Overall positive sentiment in equity markets has dampened demand for traditional safe-haven assets and weighed on precious metals amid a market focus on closely watched inflation data. of America. In terms of the fundamental picture, gold still has a lot of support to become a top priority Investors remain concerned about the possibility of broader conflict in the Middle East and the impact of the protracted Russia-Ukraine conflict. In addition, the dovish expectations of the Federal Reserve (Fed) will no longer support the US Dollar (USD) and will act as a favorable tailwind for gold prices. Data released Tuesday showed U.S. producer prices rose less than expected in July, suggesting inflation continued to slow. Traders now await US consumer price index (CPI) data for July today (Wednesday) and retail sales data due (Thursday) for further impetus to the move. The next policy stance of the US central bank. Today (Wednesday), investors will receive more important US consumer price index (CPI) data. Markets generally expect that if inflation continues to show signs of slowing, the Federal Reserve may adopt a more accommodative monetary policy stance. Surveys show that the annual US CPI increase in July is expected to remain at 3.0%. Annual core CPI growth is expected to slow to 3.2% from 3.3% last month. If the CPI data is lower than expected, this will further pave the way for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and support gold prices. On the geopolitical side According to sources from Reuters, Iranian officials said: Only a ceasefire in Gaza can delay retaliation Three senior Iranian officials said that only a ceasefire in Gaza during negotiations expected to take place this week will prevent Iran from retaliating against Israel's assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on its territory, Reuters reported. news on Wednesday. A senior Iranian security official, said Iran would launch a direct attack with allies such as Hezbollah if the Gaza talks fail or if Iran believes Israel is delaying the talks. . Over the weekend, Hamas expressed doubts whether ceasefire negotiations could continue. Israel and Hamas have held several rounds of talks in recent months but have failed to reach a final ceasefire agreement. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After gold decreased and corrected from the 0.618% Fibonacci extension towards 2,455 USD, as noted by readers in yesterday's edition, it has now recovered slightly and lost the corrective downward momentum. In the short, medium and long term, the technical structure as well as the trend is still an uptrend. With gold breaking above the 0.618% Fibonacci level, it will open a new uptrend. With a short-term target at 2,484 USD (all-time high) and more than the original price of 2,500 – 2,505 USD. As long as gold remains above the $2,455 – $2,448 area, it will still have a bullish short-term technical outlook, and the main trend is noticed by the price channel and the main support is noticed by the EMA21. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices is still bullish as the Relative Strength Index is still a long way from reaching the oversold area, showing that there is still room for growth ahead. And the notable prices will be listed again as follows. Support: 2,455 – 2,448USD Resistance: 2,471 – 2,484 – 2,500USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2501 - 2499 ⚰️SL: 2505 ⬆️TP1: 2494 ⬆️TP2: 2489 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2424 - 2426 ⚰️SL: 2420 ⬆️TP1: 2431 ⬆️TP2: 2436
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading