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GOLD fell more than 1%, the bullish structure was threatenedEarly in the Asian trading session on July 25, OANDA:XAUUSD decreased more than 1%, as of the time the article was completed, gold was trading at 2,372USD, equivalent to a decrease of 25Dollar during the day. Former New York Fed President Dudley (who enjoys perpetual voting rights on the FOMC and is known as “the Federal Reserve's third in command”) wrote: I have long been in the “hold interest” camp. high yield for longer periods of time. But times have changed and things have changed now so I changed my mind. The Fed should cut interest rates, preferably at its interest rate meeting next week. Gold traders are now awaiting second-quarter US GDP data today (Thursday), as well as the latest personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index on Friday, as this is the gauge Fed's preferred inflation. Reuters quoted sources as saying on Wednesday that the Bank of Japan may discuss whether to raise interest rates at its July 30-31 meeting and announce a plan to nearly halve its bond purchases. votes in the next few years. Although gold has been supported by news from India which has reduced import duties on gold and silver from 15% to 6%. But the main reason why gold prices are still being sold off is partly due to profit-taking motivation, and partly because the possibility of Trump's election will support the Dollar. Trump is known as the President with a gay tariff stance. harshly. The main factor currently supporting gold prices is market expectations that the Federal Reserve may actually decide to cut interest rates before September. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is trading at a very dangerous price position for bullish expectations. As the current price activity falls below most important supports from the trending price channel and the 21-day moving average (EMA21). Given its current position, gold is still likely to continue to sell off more towards the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level, which is also the nearest support level. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index is pointing down but still quite far from the oversold point, showing that the room for price reduction is still quite comfortable. Gold can only have enough conditions to increase in price when it surpasses the area of ​​2,400 - 2,390 USD, which is also considered the current pressure area. During the day, gold has conditions to fall further with notable prices that will be listed again as follows. Support: 2,362USD Resistance: 2,385 – 2,390 – 2,400USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2415 - 2413 ⚰️SL: 2419 ⬆️TP1: 2408 ⬆️TP2: 2403 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2349 - 2351 ⚰️SL: 2345 ⬆️TP1: 2356 ⬆️TP2: 2361
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
USDJPY took a breather on ThursdayFollowing a robust rally earlier in the week, USDJPY took a breather on Thursday, displaying a lack of clear direction but maintaining a steady position above 155.00. If gains resume, resistance looms at 158.00 and 160.00 thereafter. Traders, however, must view movements towards these levels with caution, as Tokyo may step in again to support the yen, which could precipitate a swift reversal. On the flip side, if the bullish scenario fails to materialize and prices begin to head lower, the first support to keep an eye on appears at 154.65. On continued weakness, all eyes will be on 153.15, followed by 152.30-152.00, an important technical range, where the 50-day simple moving average aligns with a medium-term ascending trendline.
by Xayah_trading
USDJPY surged to multi-decade highs around 154.80Earlier in the week, USDJPY surged to multi-decade highs around 154.80 before retracing slightly from those lofty levels as the weekend approached. If the downward reversal gains traction in the upcoming trading sessions, support looms at 153.20 and 152.00 thereafter, with 150.80 possibly becoming a focal point if these price thresholds are breached. On the flip side, if USDJPY resumes its climb, resistance is likely to materialize near 154.80, followed by 156.00, the upper boundary of a short-term rising channel in place since December of last year. While the pair maintains a bullish outlook, it's essential to proceed with caution given the overbought market conditions and the increasing probability of FX intervention by the Japanese government.
by Xayah_trading
USDJPY rebounded from Fib0.618% levelOn Friday (July 5), data from the US Department of Labor showed that US nonfarm payrolls increased by 206,000 jobs in June. The May data was revised sharply downward to show an increase of 218,000 jobs, compared to the previous value of 272,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in June, slightly above expectations of 4.0%. Friday's nonfarm payrolls report showed US jobs growth slowed slightly in June while the unemployment rate rose, reinforcing the view that the Federal Reserve could start cutting interest rates capacity in September. Data-wise it is not favorable for the USD and this creates some pressure on USD/JPY. But the general picture is that USD/JPY still tends to increase fundamentally because the interest rate difference between the Fed and BOJ is still very large. On the daily chart, after OANDA:USDJPY correction since testing the edge on the price channel (a), the correction also received support from the 0.618% Fibonacci extension. Note to readers in the previous issue. The 0.618% Fibonacci level acts as short-term support, while the EMA21 moving average and trend price channel (a) act as main supports and are also the main trend of USD/JPY. In the short term, as long as USD/JPY remains above the 0.618% Fibonacci level, it will remain supported and the possibility of a downside correction will remain limited and the target level in the near term is aimed at the 0.786% Fibonacci level. In case USD/JPY falls below 160.204 it has room to correct a bit more with EMA21 and Fibonacci 0.50% as targets. However, during the day the uptrend of USD/JPY will still be noticed by the following technical levels. Support: 160,204 – 159,896 Resistance: 161,951 – 162,464
by Xayah_trading
GOLD recovered strongly by IndiaOANDA:XAUUSD Strong recovery, Gold price reached 2,418 USD/ounce during the Asian trading session on July 24. Spot gold ended a four-session losing streak as India's move to cut import taxes on gold and silver is expected to boost global gold demand. India plans to significantly reduce import duties on gold and silver The Indian government on Tuesday announced plans to reduce import tax on gold and silver from 15% to 6%. The move could boost retail demand and help curb smuggling in India. “To increase the domestic value addition of gold and precious metal jewellery, I propose to reduce customs duty on gold and precious metals,” Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said in her budget speech on Tuesday. silver down 6%.” Increased gold demand in India could push up global gold prices because India is the world's second largest gold consumer. In addition to news from India, falling US bond interest rates is also a positive signal for gold. Gold prices recovered, due to falling US Treasury bond yields. The US 10-year Treasury yield fell 1.5 basis points to 4.24%, which is a positive signal for gold. Traders are awaiting key US economic data, including June inflation and Q2 GDP, to gauge the Fed's next move. According to CME Group's "FedWatch" tool, the market expects a 96.1% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. Since gold does not earn interest, cutting interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, thereby making gold more attractive to investors. Pay attention to important US data The focus this week will be on US second-quarter GDP data on Thursday and the latest personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index on Friday, as this is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. A weaker PCE is expected to be positive for gold, mainly because the market will be more confident that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in September. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, up to now, gold is having its second day of recovery since profit-taking pressure caused gold prices to adjust to the important support area around 2,390 - 2,400 USD. Attention readers before. Gold prices also achieved the initial target recovery level at the $2,416 area noted in yesterday's publication and with the current momentum, the next target level will be around $2,430. If gold breaks the 2,430 USD level, the bullish outlook will continue to open up with a new cycle and the subsequent target level of about 2,465 USD, the price point of the 0.328% Fibonacci extension. As long as gold remains above EMA21 and within the trend price channel the main trend remains bullish and the bullish structure is not affected, pullbacks do not take gold price below EMA21 then it should only be considered as short-term adjustments. During the day, the uptrend of gold prices will be noticed by the following technical levels. Support: 2,400 – 2,390USD Resistance: 2,420 – 2,430USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2434 - 2432 ⚰️SL: 2438 ⬆️TP1: 2427 ⬆️TP2: 2422 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2372 - 2374 ⚰️SL: 2368 ⬆️TP1: 2379 ⬆️TP2: 2384
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
The market focuses on GDP, PCE, GOLD recovers around $2,400OANDA:XAUUSD fell below its original price of $2,400 on Monday (July 22) as the dollar strengthened slightly, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, while markets waited for more data US economists and Federal Reserve officials commented this week to clarify the interest rate cut schedule. According to CME "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 97.4% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 2.6%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged until September is 5.8%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points is 91.7% and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points is 2. 4%. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding unprofitable gold, and are an important support for gold prices. Joe Biden announced on Sunday that he would withdraw from the US presidential race and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic Party candidate in the November election. But it forced a reassessment of risks in the markets. financial markets, affecting gold prices on Monday. As noted to readers in yesterday's edition, if Trump is re-elected, gold will be under certain pressure in the short term because Trump has a harsh tariff stance. But there will not be fundamental pressure because gold will still be supported by the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) gradual interest rate cuts. Markets are currently focused on second-quarter US gross domestic product (GDP) data released on Thursday, as well as personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data released on Friday. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold fell to levels around the original price point of $2,400, an area that will be noted as a very important support area. The area around 2,400USD is a very important support area because this is the confluence of many technical indicators from EMA21, the lower edge of the medium-term rising price channel and the 0.236% Fibonacci level. If gold can recover to maintain price activity above its original price of $2,400, then overall the bullish structure has not been broken and there is still upside potential. The upward momentum will become clearer if gold can bring price activity above 2,430 USD, at which point the target level will be around 2,465 USD in the short term. As long as gold remains above EMA21 and within the price channel, the medium-term technical outlook remains bullish, which means long protection levels should be placed behind EMA21. During the day, the prospect of recovery with the main uptrend will be noticed by the following technical levels. Support: 2,400 – 2,390USD Resistance: 2,416 – 2,430USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2434 - 2432 ⚰️SL: 2438 ⬆️TP1: 2427 ⬆️TP2: 2422 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2372 - 2374 ⚰️SL: 2368 ⬆️TP1: 2379 ⬆️TP2: 2384
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Joe Biden, gives up re-election, USD is temporarily supportedUS President Joe Biden on Sunday abandoned his difficult re-election bid under growing pressure from members of his Democratic Party and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to succeed him as party candidate on November 11. Biden will face Republican candidate Trump in the presidential race in the November election. If officially nominated, Harris, 59, will become the first black female presidential candidate of the major parties in American history. “Kamala Harris, as a potential Democratic presidential candidate, her policy ideas cover many areas such as tech regulation, big tech companies, climate and energy. quality as well as artificial intelligence.” If former US President Trump wins a second term, Trump's tariff stance will have a major impact on the market (Trump is known as the US President with a harsh tariff stance, demonstrated by his term in office). Trump had a trade competition with China, which had a deep impact on the market and major fluctuations continuously occurred. During this period, the admin also had to monitor each status line of "this President, very tired".) 1. If Trump is elected, precious metal gold and silver may come under temporary pressure as the Dollar strengthens from Trump's harsh tariff stance. In this context, the Dollar should be considered a safe haven and continue to be promoted. 2. Even if Trump is elected, gold prices are still unlikely to sustainably decline or, more accurately, have a long-term fundamental downward trend by central banks such as the Federal Reserve and Banks The European Central Bank, along with many other major Central Banks, will enter a cycle of cutting interest rates. For this orientation, gold may be temporarily under pressure because the possibility of Trump being elected is very high. According to Bloomberg, Trump's success rate of returning to the White House is more feasible than most other candidates. . In a context where Joe Biden, the representative of the Democratic Party, has given up his difficult re-election effort. However, this impact is not a long-term impact because the Fed's interest rates will have to be cut gradually, and of course this is beneficial for gold prices in the medium and long term. The gold price target will continue to be focused on the $2,500 mark, and technical analysis and more market information readers can review in the weekly publication linked below.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD adjusted down significantly, the basic trend did not changeAlthough market expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September continued to increase, gold prices remained very volatile and had a significant correction session. Gold prices hit a record high of $2,483 on Wednesday amid positive interest rate cut expectations, but failed to hold on to gains as investors booked profits. This, along with the increasing possibility of former US President Donald Trump being elected, has stimulated capital flows into the US Dollar, creating some additional pressure, causing gold to adjust downward. US jobs data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed more people than expected applying for unemployment benefits, indicating slowing economic growth. Coupled with a flurry of data last week showing inflation moving toward the Fed's 2% target, the data is starting to attract policymakers' attention. Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday showed a larger-than-expected increase in first-time unemployment claims in the United States last week, but there were no significant changes in the markets. labor. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the US published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that in the week ending July 13, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the US increased to 243,000, higher than The expected number is 230,000 and also exceeds 223,000 last week. The most active gold futures contract on COMEX was 636 lots traded immediately within one minute from 07:03 to 07:04 Hanoi time on July 19, with a total contract value of 155 million USD. Overall, the basic picture has not changed much with positive factors still supporting the possibility of gold price increases. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD As noted to readers in yesterday's edition, gold has suffered a downward correction after the Relative Strength Index operated in the overbought area, indicating that the room for price increases is no longer too great. large and require adjustments after a long period of price increases. Currently, gold is also operating quite low but does not affect the main trend of price increase with the price channel as the short-term trend and long-term trend. In the short term, the fact that gold can recover to maintain above the technical level of 2,430 USD will be a good sign for it. On the other hand, if gold recovers back above $2,449, it will mark the end of the downward adjustment cycle. During the day, gold could continue to correct further once it is sold below $2,420 with a subsequent downside target of around $2,400. The downward correction cycle from the uptrend of gold prices will be noticed again by the following technical levels. Support: 2,420 – 2,400USD Resistance: 2,430 – 2,449USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2466 - 2464 ⚰️SL: 2470 ⬆️TP1: 2459 ⬆️TP2: 2454 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2409 - 2411 ⚰️SL: 2405 ⬆️TP1: 2416 ⬆️TP2: 2421
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD recovers after correcting from record level, trend stabilizOANDA:XAUUSD revised down from record highs but growing optimism about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September and a weaker US Dollar still stimulated gold demand. On the economic front, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book survey showed the U.S. economy growing at a modest pace entering the third quarter. The latest edition of the “Beige Book” was compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond based on information collected on or before July 8. Wage growth was moderate or modest in most jurisdictions, but the rate of price growth is generally moderate. There was little change in consumer spending and almost every jurisdiction cited retailers cutting prices or consumers buying only essentials. Although gold prices have eased from record highs but remain at record highs, expectations of a Fed rate cut getting closer and yields continuing to gradually decline, coupled with a weaker US Dollar, remain. will continue to be the main support factor for gold prices. Many Fed policymakers said they were increasingly confident that price increases were on track and returning to the Fed's target level after stronger-than-expected price data earlier this year. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said the time for the Fed to cut interest rates is "near," but uncertainty about the direction of the economy makes it unclear when short-term borrowing costs might fall . According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool, the market is currently pricing in a 98.1% chance that the US will cut interest rates in September. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding unprofitable gold and put pressure on the dollar, making gold cheaper for investors holding other currencies. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After gold had a downward correction yesterday to retest the support area that readers noticed in the previous issue around the 2,449 USD area, the gold price has recovered and continues to stabilize with the trend. increase. In the short term, the technical structure does not show any notable resistance, while the Relative Strength Index is also approaching the overbought area, showing that the room for price increases is no longer too large. The fact that the room for price increases is no longer too wide, pushing gold prices to enter the accumulation phase after the recent strong increase cycle. However, the main trend for gold prices will still be an uptrend with notable technical levels listed as follows. Support: 2,449 – 2,431USD Resistance: 2,483USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2474 - 2472 ⚰️SL: 2477 ⬆️TP1: 2467 ⬆️TP2: 2462 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2429 - 2431 ⚰️SL: 2425 ⬆️TP1: 2436 ⬆️TP2: 2441
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [July 22 - July 26]During the last weekend, the price of OANDA:XAUUSD decreased due to the strengthening of the US Dollar and profit-taking activities in the market. The gold market once again ended this week in a key price position, testing key support at the original price point of $2,400/ounce. Before that, the price of gold hit a record high this past week, largely due to growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September. XAUUSD is now closely correlated with interest rate expectations, and gold's rise to a record high coincides with expectations that the Federal Reserve will launch its easing cycle in September. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in a more than 98.1% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. Lower interest rates increase the appeal of precious metals, especially Non-Yield Gold. yield. The only thing that could derail gold's fundamental uptrend is a surprise rise in inflation, which would make investors question the possibility of interest rate cuts. However, in reality, recent data along with comments from the Fed all show that the scenario of a sudden increase in inflation approaching the Fed's 2% target is very unlikely. Investors will have to wait until Friday for the release of the June Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index. Last month, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge showed inflation rising 2.6%. In addition to key inflation data, the market will first focus on US gross domestic product (GDP) data. In terms of central bank operations, the Bank of Canada will announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday. Economists believe weaker inflation data will create room for the central bank to cut interest rates. Economic data to watch next week Tuesday: Existing home sales Wednesday: Bank of Canada monetary policy decision, PMI preview, new home sales Thursday: GDP growth, durable goods orders, weekly unemployment claims Friday: Core PCE, personal income and expenses Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has corrected down for three consecutive sessions since its all-time high last week, and now closes weekly at a very important support point, the original price of $2,400. The level of 2,400USD is both the original price and the horizontal support and the bottom edge of the short-term trend price channel. Once gold continues to be sold below the original price of 2,400 USD, it will risk falling further with the target level then at the 21-day moving average (EMA21). However, with the closing position right at 2,400 USD, the short-term technical uptrend from the still undetermined price channel has been broken. Meanwhile, the long-term trend of gold is still completely tilted towards the possibility of price increase. In the near future, gold has conditions that lean towards an uptrend with main support from EMA21 and the price channel while the short-term trend and short-term support level is at 2,400USD. The recovery target in the near term will initially be noticed at $2,431. As long as gold remains above EMA21, price drops should only be considered corrective, profit-taking moves in the market without changing the main trend. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,400 – 2,397 – 2,390USD Resistance: 2,431USD 📌The short-term trading plan for next week will first consider buying around 2350, selling around 2450.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
USDJPY with an uptrend, conditions towards the peak of the eraThe Bank of Japan said last Friday that it would begin reducing its bond purchases, but the reduction remains limited. So, from a fundamental perspective, this is not stimulating the Japanese yen at all. Show transactions OANDA:USDJPY is still watching for signs of how the Japanese government will intervene to support the yen to continue its appreciation. Meanwhile, the USD will still be strong because the market is pricing the Fed will only cut interest rates once this year, and Fed officials are sending hawkish messages about "high interest rates for a while". longer". Technically, the bullish structure of OANDA:USDJPY there are no changes compared to previous publications sent to you. Temporarily, USD/JPY is limited by the technical level of 158.011 and once USD/JPY maintains above this level, it will provide conditions for USD/JPY to continue to increase towards its all-time peak. Regarding the overall picture, USD/JPY still has the main trend of increasing prices with the price channel (a) being noticed as the main trend and the EMA21 moving average as short-term support. As long as USD/JPY is still trading with the above support levels, the bullish trend should not change and each pullback should only be considered a technical correction. USD/JPY's uptrend will be noticed again by the following technical levels. Support: 157,224 – 156,657 Resistance: 158.011 – 160.236
by Xayah_trading
USDJPY adjusted sharply downTaking advantage of the weak US consumer price index (CPI) on Thursday to push the US Dollar down in price on the foreign exchange market, the Japanese government intervened, causing USD/JPY to plummet. The amount of intervention by the Japanese government that day amounted to 3.57 trillion yen (22.43 billion USD), less than 3 months since the last intervention. Friday's move in USD/JPY could be the result of continued intervention. It seems that the Bank of Japan will take advantage of good opportunities from time to time (for example, when major US economic data is released and the market takes advantage of the dollar's devaluation trend) to conduct unusual intervention. to achieve goals quickly, with accurate results and save costs. However, to substantively change the trend of the Yen, it still depends on whether the Bank of Japan can resolutely take some major measures, such as stopping bond purchases or significantly increasing interest rates at the meeting. interest rate meeting at the end of July, which could completely reverse the yen's downtrend. If the Japanese government remains cautious about the major issues mentioned above, it will be difficult for the Yen to recover. On the daily chart, although USDJPY has moderated significantly, it still does not technically qualify for a bearish trend. Specifically, USD/JPY's decline was limited by the technical level of 157.224 and the 0.382% Fibonacci extension; On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index has not yet reached the oversold level but is curving upward, showing that the downward momentum and room for price declines is not too much. However, a drop below the EMA21 also creates pressure on the price increase, while the nearest resistance level is noticed at the 0.50% Fibonacci level confluence with the lower edge of the price channel (a). If USD/JPY can recover above the 0.50% Fibonacci it will have the potential for a further recovery to the EMA21 area. As long as USD/JPY is not sold below 157 it still has room to rise technically, in case it is sold below 157 it will be more bearish with 155 as the next target, So the point to protect the long position should be placed behind the level 157. Looking ahead, the technical trend of USD/JPY still offers upside with notable technical points listed as follows. Support: 157.224 – 157.209 – 157 Resistance: 158.616 – 160.204
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD recovers from $2,400, Powell continues to supportOANDA:XAUUSD recovered after correcting and testing support at the $2,400 base price point on Monday. At the time this article was completed, gold was trading at 2,430USD/oz, an increase equivalent to 0.31% of more than 7Dollar on the day. Gold price rose for a third straight week but fell short of its daily high as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell kept his promise and did not provide expected guidance. Gold opened slightly lower on Monday after Trump's assassination over the weekend increased his chances of winning the November election. This gave slight support to the US Dollar, although concerns have eased and gold continued its upward trend, pushing gold prices to a multi-week high of $2,439/ounce. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave a dovish signal on Monday. Powell said second-quarter economic data gives policymakers more confidence that inflation is falling toward the Fed's 2% target. The comments could pave the way for interest rate cuts in the near future. Powell said he will not wait until inflation reaches the 2% target to cut interest rates, because the impact of monetary policy has a lag, and keeping interest rates too high for too long will limit them too much. economic growth rate. He further explained that if we wait until inflation reaches the 2% target to cut interest rates, we may have to wait too long because the currently applied tightening monetary policy will still have an impact and can push up interest rates. Inflation is below 2%. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly declined to give guidance on when the Fed might cut interest rates, but acknowledged that significant progress had been made in controlling inflation. She noted growing confidence in getting closer to the 2% inflation target and said more information was needed before making a decision on interest rates. She noted that she had seen progress toward her goal, but had not yet achieved it. According to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 91.2% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 8.8%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged until September is 0.0%, the probability of cutting interest rates for the first time is about 99.7%. Lower interest rates will be significantly beneficial for precious metals, especially non-yielding gold. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After gold adjusted and retested the original price area of ​​2,400 USD, which was the support that readers noticed in the publication last week, gold has recovered and currently maintains its price activity around 2,430 USD. by the time the article is completed. In terms of technical structure, there are not many changes compared to the previous issue sent to you with most of the technical conditions supporting the possibility of a price increase. The main trend of gold price is noticed by the price channel, as long as gold remains above EMA21, the technical outlook will still be bullish. Heading towards all-time highs, gold prices currently have no technical resistance ahead, and the nearest notable support levels remain around the $2,400 raw price. This means that, technically, very large fluctuations can continue to occur, but the upward price trend will not change. During the day, the uptrend of gold prices will be noticed by the following price levels. Support: 2,418 – 2,400 – 2,390USD Resistance: 2,449USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2401 - 2399 ⚰️SL: 2405 ⬆️TP1: 2394 ⬆️TP2: 2389 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2337 - 2339 ⚰️SL: 2333 ⬆️TP1: 2344 ⬆️TP2: 2349
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD continues to refresh all-time highs, with no resistance"Dovish" comments by Federal Reserve officials reinforced market expectations of a US interest rate cut in September. Investors flocked to gold, the safe-haven asset and Gold prices increased further and continuously reached new all-time records. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Monday that recent inflation data has reinforced policymakers' confidence that price pressures are on track to remain low, reassuring markets. market that a US interest rate cut will take place in September. San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly also said "confidence is rising" and inflation is moving toward the U.S. central bank's 2% target. Lower US interest rates are putting pressure on the dollar and bond yields, increasing the appeal of non-yielding gold. Gold prices are up more than 19% this year after rising 13% in 2023. According to CME "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 93.3% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 6.7%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged until September is 0.0%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points is 93.3%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points is 6, 7%. According to a recent report from ANZ Bank, it is worth noting that India's gold demand could help prolong the current bull run and push gold prices even higher. India is the world's second largest gold market. In the first 5 months of 2024, India's gold imports increased by 26% over the same period last year, with 230 tons of gold flowing into the country. This is despite prices reaching record highs. There are many reasons why gold has become the top choice at the present time, basically, readers can re-read recent publications via the link below to get more information. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has continued to make new all-time highs and looking ahead there is currently no technical resistance left, with all price structures still tilted strongly to the upside. Currently, the closest support is the all-time high broken yesterday, the $2,449 level is notable support which if gold corrects below this level it is likely to retest the $2,431 area or more 2,400USD but the uptrend is unchanged. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also operating around the overbought area, showing that there is not too much room for price increases. A good signal for the downward adjustment momentum is that the RSI is bent downward. from the 80% area. Overall, even though downward corrections may occur, the bullish structure and uptrend are unchanged, as long as gold remains within the price channel, and EMA21. However, we (short-term traders) will have to face a very volatile market, the only thing that can make trading better is to be patient and control the intensity/appropriate trading volume to adapt to the current market context. Gold's uptrend will be noticed by the following price levels. Support: 2,449 – 2,431USD Resistance: (No resistance level found) 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2501 - 2499 ⚰️SL: 2505 ⬆️TP1: 2494 ⬆️TP2: 2489 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2417 - 2419 ⚰️SL: 2413 ⬆️TP1: 2424 ⬆️TP2: 2429
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
3 key factors push GBPUSD to continue its bullish outlookSince the beginning of this year, the pound has been one of the best performing currencies. There are three factors that are driving sterling's strength and these are likely to continue to support gains in sterling over the medium term. 1. Interest rate difference Interest rate differentials are the main fundamental driver of currencies and are currently having a positive impact on GBP. The real interest rate in the UK is 3.25%, compared to 2.5% in the US. Rising real interest rates in the UK relative to the US are currently driving GBP/USD strength and this is likely to strengthen further. Currently, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is 90% and the market currently expects the Fed to cut interest rates more than twice this year. For comparison, the probability of the Bank of England cutting interest rates in August is 57% and the market expects the UK to cut interest rates less than twice this year. 2. Forecasting economic growth and inflation The UK's growth outlook has improved in recent weeks. After flat GDP growth in April, GDP growth in May was 0.4%, contrary to the 0.2% growth forecast. It also reduces the possibility of the Bank of England cutting interest rates, because it is unlikely that the Bank of England cuts interest rates while raising GDP and CPI estimates. The Bank of England may wait until the new government's first budget before cutting interest rates, which could also benefit sterling, especially as high interest rates do not appear to be a deterrent the UK's continued recovery since last year, when the economy entered recession. 3. Political risks Political risks that have limited sterling's rise in recent years are likely to decline as the Labor government enacts pro-growth policies and builds closer ties with the EU. This will not boost sterling in the short term and its impact on the currency is difficult to predict. However, with the UK now looking politically stable, especially compared to France and the US, sterling is likely to attract "safe haven" funds in the coming months. OANDA:GBPUSD technical outlook analysis Temporarily, GBP/USD's upside momentum is being limited by the upper edge of the price channel and the 1.29959 technical level but in the overall picture, GBP/USD has no technical factors bringing pressure. However, the Relative Strength Index is folding at the overbought level, showing that the room for growth is no longer strong and it is possible that GBP/USD will face some corrections without affecting the trend. main increase. In the short term, the nearest support level is at the 0.618% Fibonacci extension point, which if GBP/USD falls below this level it will tend to correct downwards to test the price point of 1.28924 in the short term. On the other hand, once GBP/USD breaks the 1.29959 resistance level it will be eligible for a new bullish cycle with the target level then at 1.30519 price points of the 0.786% Fibonacci extension. During the day, the bullish outlook for GBP/USD remains unchanged with a correction to be noticed by the following price points. Support: 1.29582 – 1.28924 Resistance: 1.29959 – 1.30519
by Xayah_trading
GBPUSD accelerated to the upside this past weekGBPUSD accelerated to the upside this past week, briefly reaching its highest level in nearly two months at one point before the weekend. If the rally continues and gains momentum in the coming sessions, resistance is likely to appear at 1.2720, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2023 decline. Further strength could then direct focus toward the 1.2800 mark. On the flip side, if the upward impetus fades and sellers regain control of the market, confluence support extending from 1.2615 to 1.2585 could offer stability in case of a pullback. If tested, traders should watch closely for price reaction, keeping in mind that a breakdown could give way to a move towards the 200-day simple moving average hovering around 1.2540.
by Xayah_trading
GBPUSD rallied early on TuesdayGBP/USD rallied early on Tuesday, briefly reaching its highest point since March 21, but gains were short-lived as sellers quickly pushed the pair down from the psychological 1.2800 level, driving it towards 1.2755. If this ceiling holds in the near term, bulls may start bailing, creating the right conditions for a move toward 1.2700. Further weakness could shift focus to 1.2635. Conversely, if buyers manage to reclaim dominance in the coming days and take out resistance at 1.2800, the upward momentum could intensify, propelling GBP/USD towards 1.2895 – the March peak. While overcoming this ceiling might be difficult, it is still feasible. On that note, upside clearance of this barrier could result in a rally towards the 1.3000 handle.
by Xayah_trading
GBPUSD holds firm despite hawkish FOMC minutesUK inflation data for April showed a slower-than-expected decrease in consumer inflation. However, services inflation, which has been persistently high, exceeded the estimated level predicted by analysts and economists. This unexpected outcome caused a delay in the expected rate cut from August to November, with only one rate cut now anticipated for this year. As a result, the pound and Gilt yields increased, leading to a rise in GBP/USD. GBP/USD briefly rose above 1.2736 but was pulled back down by hawkish FOMC minutes. It is now trading higher again, showing resilience around the 1.2736 level. With both the BoE and Fed leaning towards a more hawkish stance, a significant move may be challenging without another catalyst. The upcoming US PCE data at the end of next week could provide that catalyst. For now, the pound is pushing higher.
by Xayah_trading
GBPUSD also edged down on ThursdayGBPUSD also edged down on Thursday, but managed to stabilize around the 1.2515/1.2500 range. Bulls must strive to maintain prices above this support region to prevent sentiment towards the pound from deteriorating; otherwise, sellers could seize the opportunity to launch a bearish assault on 1.2430. On the other hand, if buyers make a new appearance and propel prices higher, resistance emerges at 1.2550, where the 200-day simple moving average converges with a short-term descending trendline. Moving further up, attention will be focused on Fibonacci resistance at 1.2590, followed by 1.2620.
by Xayah_trading
GBPUSD is experiencing bearish conditions due to a dovish BoEBritish private sector business activity grew in June at its slowest pace since November last year, according to the latest S&P Global Flash UK PMI report. According to Chris Williamson, chief economist at S&P Global, the slowdown partly “reflects the uncertainty surrounding the business environment in the run-up to the general election.” UK service sector inflation remains high “still evident in the survey, but will at least ease from the current 5.7% pace in the coming months.” UK government bond yields continue to fall, boosted by dovish moves by the Bank of England. Financial markets are currently pricing in a 50/50 chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the BoE's monetary policy meeting in August and a total cut of just under 50 basis points this year. On the daily chart, OANDA:GBPUSD has technical conditions that support the possibility of a bearish price with pressure from the newly formed short-term price channel, the price channel and the break below the price channel indicate an uptrend for GBP/ The USD is no longer technically functional. Additionally, GBP/USD is also under pressure from the 21-day moving average (EMA21), along with the RSI pointing down but still quite far from the oversold area. This shows that there is still a lot of room for technical downside for GBP/USD. With price activity below the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement and within the price channel, GBP/USD is expected to decline further in the near term with a short-term target level of around 1.25956 price points of the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level. In the short term, technical conditions lean bearish for GBP/USD and technical levels are in focus again as follows. Support: 1.25956 Resistance: 1.26650 – 1.27400
by Xayah_trading
EURUSD attempts to hold 1.0700OANDA:EURUSD ANALYSIS - Focus returns to Europe and France in particular in the lead up to the elections - Will the ECB step in to calm widening bond spreads considering Frances debt load? - EUR/USD fails to capitalize on Mondays reprieve – downside risks remain WILL THE ECB STEP IN TO CALM WIDENING BOND SPREADS CONSIDERING FRANCE'S DEBT LOAD? With the focus shifting back to Europe, particularly France, the campaign for the upcoming parliamentary elections is in full swing. The rising popularity of Marine Le Pen's National Rally party has concerned markets, as they see it as a potential unpredictable force impacting European bond markets. The risk premium applied to riskier nations like Italy and France is reflected in the French-German spreads, while investors have turned to safer German bonds. Keep an eye on any sell-off in periphery nations' bonds as it could lead to a weaker euro when France goes to vote. The ECB's Chief Economist, Philip Lane, described the recent bond market movement as "repricing" and not chaotic. The ECB introduced a new tool to address any potential fragmentation in the bond market in 2022, which involves purchasing bonds from qualifying member states if borrowing costs become uncontrollable. France's debt to GDP ratio is currently above the EU's recommended 60%, which may complicate their eligibility for assistance if spreads get out of control. OANDA:EURUSD ATTEMPTS TO HOLD 1.0700 BUT DOWNSIDE RISKS REMAIN On Monday, the pair attempted to break through the 1.0700 level, but concerns about momentum and downside risks persist. The price is currently trading below the 200 simple moving average and is likely to retest 1.0700. Key support levels are at 1.0600 and potentially even 1.0450, which was the low point of the major decline in 2023. EU inflation data has been declining despite a slight increase in May. The ECB is considering another interest rate cut. Today, ZEW economic sentiment fell short of expectations at 47.5 (slightly better than last month's 47.1). Inflation expectations have increased due to the slightly higher May figures.
by Xayah_trading
EURUSD ticked up on TuesdayEURUSD ticked up on Tuesday but failed to decisively push past confluence resistance between 1.0865 and 1.0880, where the 50% Fibonacci retracement of last year's decline intersects a key short-term descending trendline. Traders should continue to watch this ceiling in the coming days, bearing in mind that a bullish breakout could set the stage for a rally toward 1.0980. In the event of sellers successfully defending the technical zone at 1.0865/1.0880, we could see downside pressure drive the exchange rate down toward support at 1.0810. The pair may stabilize around this floor during a pullback before resuming its ascent. However, if a breakdown occurs, a retest of the 200-day simple moving average at 1.0790 could be imminent, with attention then transitioning to 1.0775.
by Xayah_trading
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