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WTI recovered insignificantly, bearish factors prevailedWest Texas Intermediate TVC:USOIL opened down to 68.94 USD/barrel as of the time this article was completed. The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) warned last Thursday that global crude oil demand is cooling while output outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies ( OPEC+) continues to increase. According to IEA data, the organization predicts non-OPEC+ crude oil production will increase by 1.5 million barrels per day from 2024 to 2025. The fact that supply is continuously expanding while market demand is not enough to compensate is the most noticeable pressure on the oil market at the present time. West Texas Intermediate crude fell about 15% this quarter on concerns about falling demand. The International Energy Agency said that global consumption growth in the first half of the year reached its lowest level since the epidemic. In that context, OPEC+, an organization of oil producing countries, postponed plans to relax supply restrictions, and Libya's oil output continued to decline. About supporting factors With the recent conflict in Libya and a series of geopolitical crises in recent years, the market is not without upside potential, although these factors have not yet had a profound enough impact on the market. common school. Combined with the fact that the Federal Reserve is expected to start cutting interest rates at its meeting next week after the labor market showed signs of slowing and traders are more optimistic that policymakers policy will cut interest rates by 50 basis points. Lower borrowing costs could support economic growth and increased energy demand. These may provide negligible fundamental support in the near term. However, the oil market needs to pay more attention to Supply - Demand and OPEC+ factors. Technical outlook analysis of TVC:USOIL On the daily chart, WTI crude oil recovered but remained in a long-term downtrend noted by the price channel and pressure from EMA21. Crude oil's fall below the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level on the daily chart would open the door for a new bearish cycle with the target then at $67.25 in the short term, more so than $65.2. On the other hand, as long as WTI crude oil remains within the price channel, the downtrend remains dominant, but maintaining price activity above the 0.236% Fibonacci level will be the factor that pushes it to recover a little further with resistance near highest at 70.9USD. Looking at the overall picture, the trend of WTI crude oil is to decrease in price with technical levels that will be noticed again as follows. Support: 68.74 – 67.25USD Resistance: 70.28 – 70.90USD
TVC:USOILShort
by Xayah_trading
GOLD continuously sets new peaks, conditions for 2,600 USDEnd of last trading week, OANDA:XAUUSD Spots hit a new all-time record high, building on the strength and momentum received from Thursday, as the market bullishly priced in the possibility of a sharp interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week. . Gold prices have surged this year, driven by the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy, central bank buying and strong safe-haven demand from conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. pushed up gold prices. Safe-haven demand has pushed gold up more than 24%, driven by geopolitical crises and economic uncertainty, as well as strong central bank buying. Last week, the World Gold Council said global physical gold exchange-traded funds saw capital inflows for the fourth consecutive month in August. As the Federal Reserve's next meeting on September 18 approaches, markets are paying close attention to the possibility of the US cutting interest rates for the first time since 2020. Low interest rates tend to support gold and creating pressure on the USD. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool shows investors now see a 50% chance of a 25 basis point cut and a 50% chance of a 50 basis point cut next week in US interest rates. Looking ahead, the gold market this week will focus on important events such as the Fed's interest rate decision and the revised Dotplot chart, comments by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the post-FOMC press conference, expected will create big fluctuations in the market. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold achieved the target increase sent to readers in the issue at the 0.618% trend-following Fibonacci extension and the upward momentum slowed, narrowing below this level. Looking at it comprehensively, gold is still completely capable of continuing to increase in price as the Relative Strength Index points up with a large slope but has not gone above the overbought level, showing that there is still room for upward momentum. still ahead. In the short term, as long as gold remains within the price channel and above the EMA21, its trend remains bullish and pullbacks that do not break these supports should only be considered technical corrections without change trend. In the immediate future, if the gold price is pushed above the 0.618% Fibonacci level, it will have enough conditions to continue to increase to the original price of 2,600 USD and more than the 0.786% Fibonacci price point of 2,612 USD. The uptrend of gold prices will be noticed again by the following technical levels. Support: 2,561 – 2,567USD Resistance: 2,590 – 2,613USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2601 - 2599⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2595 →Take Profit 1 2594 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2589 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2553 - 2555⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2549 →Take Profit 1 2560 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2565
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Sep 16 - Sep 20]This week, OANDA:XAUUSD increased quite sharply, from 2,485 USD/oz to 2,585 USD/oz and closed at 2,579 USD/oz. The reason international gold prices increased sharply this week is because the market expects the FED to strongly cut interest rates at its meeting next week, with a cut of up to 50 percentage points. However, considering economic data and the current US economic situation, the FED can only cut interest rates by 25 percentage points. This week, we saw the US August Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase by 2.5% year-on-year, lower than the expected increase of 2.6% and down sharply from the increase of 2.5%. .9% in July. However, core CPI, excluding energy and food prices, increased by 3.2%, a slight increase compared to July's data. Meanwhile, the US unemployment rate in August decreased slightly from 4.3% to 4.2%, although this figure is still high compared to the 3.8% rate recorded a year ago. In particular, GDP in the second quarter in the most recent adjustment increased to 3% over the same period last year, much higher than the previously announced 2.8%... All of the above data shows that although the US economy has slowed down, inflation is cooling down, and the labor market is still difficult, it cannot fall into a short-term recession. Therefore, the FED will likely only cut interest rates by 25 percentage points. In principle, when the FED cuts interest rates, gold prices will increase. However, the increase in gold prices next week will depend on the level of interest rate cuts by the FED. Currently, there is only about a 43% chance that the FED will cut interest rates by 50 basis points next week. Therefore, if the FED only cuts interest rates by 25 percentage points, next week's gold price could still rise above the threshold of 2,600 USD/oz, but then will be under pressure from investors to sell and take profits. If the FED cuts interest rates by up to 50 percentage points, gold prices next week could increase far beyond the threshold of 2,600 USD/oz. While the Fed's decision will be the focus of the gold market next week, other important economic data could also cause some volatility in gold prices next week, such as manufacturing figures. , housing market and retail sales data. In addition, after the FED's monetary policy meeting, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan will also announce their monetary policy decisions. 📌Technically, in the short term for the H4 technical chart, after a period of cumulative sideways movement, this week the gold price has broken out of the old peak at 2530 and far exceeded this resistance level. In the immediate future, the gold price will correct. Recovering the round resistance level of 2600. However, divergence signals have appeared on almost all time frames from Weekly, Daily, H4... (Divergence does not mean the price will decrease. Divergence in the financial market In general, the forex market in particular reflects that buyers are no longer interested in high prices. However, there has been no profit-taking action, so the price divergence gives us a warning not to participate buy more, although the price may continue to break to new highs) Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2.530 – 2.561USD Resistance: 2.613 – 2.582USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2601 - 2599⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2605 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2523 - 2525⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2519
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
Achieving the target increase, highest GOLD of all timeOANDA:XAUUSD The increase reached all target levels sent to readers for many weeks and established a new era peak. The uptrend did not change both fundamentally and technically after PPI inflation data was published. After the European Central Bank announced its monetary policy on Thursday and the United States released relevant macroeconomic data, spot gold prices rose to a record high and are currently maintaining their upward momentum. during the Asian trading session on September 13. The European Central Bank cut interest rates on Thursday, but President Christine Lagarde downgraded expectations for another rate cut next month, saying the central bank will decide on policy action Next is based on economic data. The Euro has risen stronger than the USD and this is also an unfavorable impact for the USD. Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday showed that initial jobless claims for the week ended September 7 were 230,000, up 2,000 from the previous reporting period and higher than last year. Market expectation is 225,000. Other data on Thursday showed the US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 1.7% year-on-year in August, less than the 1.8% expected while core PPI rose 2.4% over the same period last year, also lower than the expected level of 2.5%. The lower-than-expected PPI inflation data boosted market sentiment with more confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates significantly next week. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after gold achieved all of the target increases sent to readers in the multi-week issue at 2,531 – 2,544 USD, it set a new era record and continues to price increase. In the immediate future, using trend-following Fibonacci extensions shows that the closest target level that gold can aim for is 2,582 USD, the Fibonacci 0.618% price point. On the other hand, even if gold corrects lower, the losses will be limited by the 0.382% Fibonacci price point of $2,540, or more than $2,531. However, the trend of gold in the short, medium and long term will still be price increase. As long as gold remains within the price channel, it still has short-term upside prospects with the EMA21 level being noted as key support for the time being. During the day, the bullish outlook for scum prices will be noticed by the following technical levels. Support: 2,544 – 2,540 – 2,531USD Resistance: 2,582 – 2,600 – 2,612USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2591 - 2589⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2595 →Take Profit 1 2584 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2579 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2518 - 2520⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2514 →Take Profit 1 2525 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2530
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
USD & GOLD Market Review September 12, 2024Real Volume Analysis of Gold in the Gold Future => Looking at the chart shows that the market is still very interested in the BULL position and especially the HIGH position at the peak. Analyze Macroeconomic News with USD Chart Yesterday we had CPI inflation data, important data to prepare for the September FOMC meeting next week. What are the data announced yesterday? - At a glance, we have good data for USD, when one index is higher than expected: 0.3 > 0.2 - But looking closely, we have conflicting data when a 3-star CPI index has lower actual data than before: 2.5 < 2.9 ==> However, USD still increased and maintained a higher mark in the current week. If combined with last week's NONFARM news, we have a rising price channel forming for the USD. ==> But because the CPI data is not standard, I predict that the USD cannot break to the top of 102. Instead, it only sideways around 101.5 and 101.9 SPDR Gold Trust Analysis 2 consecutive days this week, also the first transaction in September. SPDR Gold Trust continues to increase its gold reserves as GOLD continues to increase in price. Comparing the SPDR and GOLD charts during the US session, we see that the trading volume is at the end of the session and at high prices. ==> Shows that SPDR is still increasing reserves at a high level Gold Strength Analysis GoldStrength chart compares to Gold. GoldStrength is the valuation of Gold in many gold markets in many countries. This is also the reason why we can see GoldStrength has a bullish breakout structure before GOLD. Because countries are in the process of cutting interest rates, gold prices in countries such as EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD, USD, .... are increasing due to weakening local currencies. That's why Gold and USD can increase in phase. => Gold Strength had breakthroughs earlier than current Gold.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
After CPI, focus on PPI and GOLD towards targetOANDA:XAUUSD Spot trading recovered after falling in yesterday's trading session due to the impact of US data, but these impacts will not be too negative for gold's uptrend in terms of both fundamental and technical aspects. . The US CPI report creates obstacles for the Fed's ability to cut interest rates by 50bps • The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday that the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-over-month in August, in line with market expectations. • US CPI in August increased by 2.5% over the same period last year, decreasing for the 5th consecutive month, in line with market expectations and lower than the previous level of 2.9%. • However, it is worth noting that core CPI in the United States increased 0.3% month-on-month in August, the largest increase in 4 months and a higher increase than the expected increase of 0.2%. . (Typically the core inflation rate reflects underlying inflation better than the overall CPI). • US core CPI increased 3.2% year-on-year in August, in line with forecasts. Higher-than-expected US core inflation data will become an issue for the Federal Reserve over the possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in the next FOMC. The focus now is on monthly core CPI data, which tends to raise concerns about persistent inflation. This could completely cause the FOMC to appear in the near future to oppose a strong interest rate cut, or no 50bps cut. According to CME's "FedWatch" tool, markets now assess an 87% chance the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week, compared with a 71% chance before the CPI data was released. This metaphor will change over time, especially after data is released, describing how market sentiment is leaning towards the Fed's interest rates. Markets will now focus on the release of the US producer price index and initial jobless claims today (Thursday). Basically, as we have sent to readers throughout recent publications, even if the impact of the data is not good, gold will still receive support from monetary policy, because the Fed will have to start the cycle. interest rate cut period. Some readers have asked, how much will gold increase and when will it increase? I certainly will not be able to answer this question. But it can be easily seen that gold will still have conditions to increase until the Fed stops reducing interest rates, and when the Fed stops reducing interest rates, I don't know anymore because I have some friends in the US but don't. Who is Jerome Powell? Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after gold corrected downward in yesterday's trading session and received support from the support confluence area noticed by readers at EMA21 and the lower edge of the price channel and the 0.786% Fibonacci extension, It has recovered and continued its short-term uptrend. The target level and short-term upside structure are unchanged with a target of $2,531 in the short term, more than $2,544 to set a new all-time high. The relative strength index RSI is pointing up, still quite far from the overbought level, showing that there is still wide room for price growth ahead. During the day, gold's uptrend will be noticed again by the following technical levels. Support: 2,503 – 2,500 – 2,484USD Resistance: 2,531 – 2,544USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2546 - 2544⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2550 →Take Profit 1 2539 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2534 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2489 - 2491⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2485 →Take Profit 1 2496 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2501
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
CPI data focus, GOLD targets price increaseOANDA:XAUUSD Break above $2,500 and stabilize above this key raw price, which is beneficial to the uptrend and has been the target level that has been of interest to readers over the past several weeks. This trading day, notable is the US CPI data today and the European Central Bank policy meeting tomorrow. Today (Wednesday), the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for August will be released. This will be the last important macro data before the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in September. Whether the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 50 basis points may depend on this . Surveys show that the US annual core CPI growth rate in August is expected to decline from 2.9% to 2.6%, while the annual core CPI growth rate is expected to maintain at 3.2%. If CPI increases from last month, US Treasury yields could rise again, putting gold under some pressure. On the other hand, if the data is at or below market expectations, it will cause the US Dollar to continue to sell off, helping gold move higher. Unless CPI is much higher than expected, the Fed could cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September. If month-over-month CPI growth is lower than expected, a 50 basis point cut is possible. will happen. Geopolitical risks have a new point Israel may have 'accidentally killed' US activists in attack on Palestinian camp, leaving 19 dead. Israel's military said Tuesday that a U.S. activist killed in the West Bank last week may have been shot "indirectly and unintentionally" by Israeli soldiers, a move that drew strong condemnation from U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken strong. Israel said it has opened a criminal investigation into the murder of 26-year-old Seattle activist Aysenur Ezgi Eygi. Blinken condemned the deadly shooting when asked about it at a news conference in London and said the United States would make clear to allies that such behavior was "unacceptable." According to AP News, Palestinian officials said Israel attacked a crowded Palestinian camp in the Gaza Strip early Tuesday morning local time, killing at least 19 people and injuring 60 others. Elsewhere, Reuters reported that Ukraine carried out its largest drone attack to date in the Moscow region on Tuesday, killing at least one person and destroying dozens of homes and businesses. forcing about 50 flights to be diverted from airports around Moscow. Obviously, geopolitical risks are still present, and every time the market is quiet it appears as a huge supportive force for gold prices. Therefore, considering the current geopolitical context, gold is always supported, because gold is always the leading safe haven asset whenever risks appear in the market. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold continues its uptrend with the previous two consecutive days of gains from the key near-term support area that has been presented to readers over the past several periods, at the EMA21 level confluence with the lower edge of the price channel and 0.786% Fibonacci Extension level. On the other hand, the horizontal support level at 2,484 USD is also a reliable short-term support level for the uptrend. There is not much change in the upward structure of gold prices, the multi-week target levels continue to be fixed at 2,531 USD in the short term and more at 2,544 USD. The relative strength index RSI is also bent upward with a pretty good slope, this is a positive signal depicting the wide room for price growth ahead. During the day, the rising prospect of gold prices will be noticed by the following technical levels. Support: 2,503 – 2,500USD Resistance: 2,531 – 2,544USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2546 - 2544⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2550 →Take Profit 1 2539 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2534 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2495 - 2497⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2491 →Take Profit 1 2503 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2508
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD recovers, pay attention to US CPI and PPIOANDA:XAUUSD recovered and increased in the early part of the week, following both the fundamental and technical trends sent to readers in weekly publications and publications throughout the past time. This week the market is still waiting for the US inflation report to further evaluate the interest rate direction of the US Federal Reserve. Investors will now focus on US consumer price (CPI) data for August on Wednesday and producer price index (PPI) on Thursday. If inflation data is much weaker than expected and raises expectations for a 50 basis point cut, gold prices will have enough fundamental momentum to aim for a new all-time record. But even if the market agrees to cut 25 basis points, gold prices will not decrease significantly because the Fed will definitely cut interest rates this September. The situation in the Middle East remains tense, which creates momentum for gold prices to recover According to Agence France-Presse, Israel's airstrike on central Syria on September 8, local time, killed at least 14 people. According to Iranian media reported on September 8 local time, regarding the death of Hamas leader Haniyeh in the attack in Tehran, Commander of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Hossein Salami said that day. Iran will certainly not let Israel carry out its evil actions. He reiterated that Iran's retaliatory measures will be very different. Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran, the capital of Iran, on July 31. Hamas and Iran determined that the assassination was carried out by Israel and Iran firmly vowed to retaliate. Israel has so far neither acknowledged nor denied Haniyeh's assassination. Gold is a haven asset that is sensitive to geopolitical risks, so any new points that occur are a significant support for gold prices. Gold ETFs increased their net gold holdings for the fourth consecutive month • Gold ETFs increased their net gold holdings for the fourth consecutive month and funds in all regions saw net gold inflows, with Western funds leading the gains. Globally, gold ETF holdings increased by 28.5 tons of gold in August. • According to the World Gold Council (WGC), strong movements in gold prices have led to the exercise of at-the-money call options on major gold ETFs, generating large capital inflows at expiration. European funds had net inflows of 7.9 tons of gold, amounting to $362 million, with Swiss and British funds leading the increase, and the eurozone and safe-haven buying driving push gold prices up. “Inflows related to foreign exchange hedging products have been significant, especially in Switzerland, against the backdrop of local currency appreciation against the US dollar,” the World Gold Council said. . • The amount of gold flowing into Asian funds slowed down but still maintained positive growth for 18 consecutive months, reaching 0.3 tons. India continues to lead gold capital flows into the region and reported its strongest month since April 2019. The recent reduction in import duties has boosted the Indian gold market. Japan also reported significant capital inflows for the sixth consecutive month. • Funds in other regions increased their holdings by 3.2 tons and gold holdings in the Australian ETF increased for three consecutive months. Gold flows into ETFs could have a significant impact on global gold markets by boosting overall demand. ETFs are a convenient way for investors to invest in the gold market, but owning an ETF also has many differences from holding physical gold. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Although gold has had significant downward corrections, the recovery from the technical level of 2,484 USD to above the original price of 2,500 USD is positive signals for the uptrend. In the short term, gold tends to increase with the price channel as the short-term trend and the nearest support is noticed at the 21-day moving average (EMA21). As long as gold remains above the 0.786% trend Fibonacci extension, it still has enough upside prospects with a recent target at $2,531 in the short term and more than $2,544. During the day, gold's uptrend will be noticed by the following technical levels. Support: 2,500 – 2,484USD Resistance: 2,503 – 2,531 – 2,544USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2519 - 2517⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2523 →Take Profit 1 2512 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2507 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2471 - 2473⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2467 →Take Profit 1 2478 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2483
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
Inflation data is the focus next week, GOLD closes above supportOANDA:XAUUSD fell on Friday (September 6), after closing in on a record hit earlier in the session after mixed US jobs data raised concerns about the scale of interest rate cuts in the decision. Federal Reserve decision later this month. The U.S. Department of Labor reported that nonfarm payrolls increased by 142,000 in August, compared with estimates of 160,000. The July figure was also adjusted down to 89,000. However, the unemployment rate was 4.2%, in line with expectations but down from 4.3% the previous month. The gold market's central question is whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points or 25 basis points on September 18. Interest rate reduction is almost certain. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders now see a 70% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut this month and a 30% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut. Some notable comments from influential officials in the US Federal Reserve • New York Fed President John Williams said lowering interest rates as quickly as possible will help keep the job market in balance. • Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller also said “the time is right” for the US central bank to begin a series of interest rate cuts, adding that he is willing to accept the scale and pace of cuts reduce. The upcoming US CPI report next week will provide a trend impact on gold prices. This is the final inflation report before the Fed's September 17-18 policy meeting and it will impact the size and pace of the Fed's interest rate cuts. The Fed's path to cutting interest rates is a very important factor. Once the market prices in a path of rate cuts at a faster pace over a longer period of time, gold will continue to rebound over the longer term. Economic data to watch next week Wednesday: US consumer price index (CPI). Thursday: ECB monetary policy decision, US PPI, US weekly unemployment claims Friday: University of Michigan preliminary consumer confidence index Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, although gold fell in the last trading session last week, in general the short, medium and long-term uptrend is still not much affected. Gold remains bullish in the short term with previous targets at $2,531 – $2,544 as long as it remains above EMA21 and within the trend price channel. Once gold rises back above the 0.786% fibonacci extension it will be eligible to continue rising and the weekly close above the $2,484 technical level is also a positive technical signal. The downward relative strength index is close to reaching the 50 level. The 50 level is considered a support if the RSI is above this level and this is also a signal that the downside space is no longer wide ahead. In the immediate future, the technical trend of gold prices is still leaning towards the possibility of an increase with notable levels being listed as follows. Support: 2,484 – 2,471USD Resistance: 2,500 – 2,503 – 2,531USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2509 - 2507⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2513 →Take Profit 1 2502 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2497 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2481 - 2483⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2477 →Take Profit 1 2488 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2493
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
WTI continues to be under pressure, notable data this weekTVC:USOIL remains under pressure, after data showed weaker-than-expected US employment data in August, which was mixed with support from OPEC+ oil producers delaying supply increases. US government data showed job growth in August was lower than expected, but the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, suggesting the Federal Reserve may not need to cut interest rates very significant this month. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said nonfarm payroll employment increased by 142,000 in August, less than expected to increase by 160,000. (July's increase was revised down to 89,000, the smallest increase since December 2020). As for the geopolitical situation, as the Israeli army battles Hamas-led rebels in the Palestinian Gaza Strip, medics said on Saturday that Israel's military assault on Gaza has killed at least at least 61 people in 48 hours. The warring parties continue to blame each other for the failure of mediators including Qatar, Egypt and the US to broker a ceasefire. The United States is preparing to present a new proposal, but the prospects for a breakthrough appear slim as the differences between the two sides remain wide. In general, there are still no notable new points regarding the geopolitical situation, so it will have less impact on the market than before. This week will release OPEC's monthly crude oil market report, EIA's monthly short-term energy outlook report and IEA's monthly crude oil market report, which are the focus of the US oil market. this week and the market will pay special attention to them. On the daily chart, TVC:USOIL still in a downtrend with technical conditions leaning towards the possibility of a price decrease. First, the long-term technical trend of WTI crude oil will be noticed by the price channel and the 21-day moving average (EMA21). Although WTI crude oil stopped falling after reaching the 1% trend-following Fibonacci extension that readers noticed in the previous issue, this is not a trending support so once WTI crude oil Breaking below the 66.96USD price point of the 1% Fibonacci will condition the price to continue falling. The next target level of WTI crude oil will be noticed at 64.55 – 63.66USD. As long as WTI crude oil remains in the price channel and below the EMA21, it still has a main bearish trend with notable technical levels listed below. Support: 66.96 – 64.55 – 63.66USD Resistance: 68.84 – 69.77USD
TVC:USOILShort
by Xayah_trading
USDJPY trending down, Yen supported by BOJ attitudeAlthough US non-farm data in August was not as expected. But the Bank of Japan has recently taken a hawkish stance on interest rate hikes, which has also significantly helped the yen's recovery. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday that nonfarm payrolls increased by 142,000 jobs last month, while July's gain was revised down to 89,000. On the weekly chart of OANDA:USDJPY The downtrend still prevails but is temporarily limited by the technical level of 141,682. Note to readers in the previous issue for USD/JPY. Although USD/JPY is recovering, the weekly trend is being shaped by the price channel and once USD/JPY breaks below the 0.618% Fibonacci level it will be eligible to continue falling with the next target level being possible. can reach 134,526 price points of fibonancci 0.786%. As long as USD/JPY remains within the price channel and below the EMA21, the main outlook remains bearish and the recovery levels should only be considered a short-term technical correction. In addition, the confluence point between the upper edge of the price channel and the 0.50% Fibonacci level will be the current closest resistance. USD/JPY downtrend will have important positions in trading as follows. Support: 141,682 – 140,401 Resistance: 144,528 – 147,120
Short
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Sep 09 - Sep 13]This week, international gold prices fell from 2,507 USD/oz to 2,471 USD/oz in the first sessions of the week. After that, gold price recovered to 2,529 USD/oz, then dropped to 2,485 USD/oz and closed this week at 2,497 USD/oz. Recent US economic data has played an important role in shaping developments in the gold market. The US August jobs report fell short of expectations. While economists predicted 160,000 new jobs would be created in August, the actual number was only 142,000 jobs. However, the published data was lower than forecast but still higher than the previous period. The US unemployment rate in August decreased slightly from 4.3% to 4.2%. But this is still high compared to the 3.8% rate recorded a year ago. These labor market figures, along with recent US inflation reports, have reinforced expectations that the Fed is about to cut interest rates. This prediction is further fueled by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's statement at the Jackson Hole Conference on August 24, in which he noted that it is time for monetary policy to adjust. In the medium and long term, many economic experts believe that gold prices will increase sharply because the more the FED cuts interest rates, the more the USD and US Treasury bond yields will weaken, increasing the appeal of gold. . Furthermore, central banks have been and are continuing to buy gold reserves. Technically, there is no debate about the uptrend of gold as the Weekly time frame technical chart clearly shows this. However, this rising wave is reaching the resistance level around the fibo expansion mark at fibo 161.8. In theory, it is possible that the price reaching this mark will have reversal phases, which are corrective declines to consolidate the uptrends. next bullish period. The next fibo milestone will be around 2,590-3,000 usd/oz. Next week, the market will pay attention to US August CPI data, and the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy meeting. 📌Currently, considering the H4 technical chart, the gold price is still moving sideways in a wide range, specifically fluctuating from 2,470 - 2,530 usd/oz. If the resistance level of 2530 is broken, in the immediate future the gold price will rise around the round resistance level of 2600. In case the support level of 2470 is broken, the gold price will fall back to around the threshold of 2,430 USD/oz. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2.500 – 2.503 – 2.530USD Resistance: 2.484 – 2.470USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2591 - 2589⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2595 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2429 - 2431⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2425
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
Outlook for new era level, most important data of the weekOANDA:XAUUSD remains in a strong uptrend after yesterday's breakout, an outlook for a new bull run and weekly target levels. On this trading day, the market will receive the most important data of the week and will create major fluctuations in the entire financial market in general, and the gold market in particular. On Thursday, as weak US ADP jobs data weighed on the US Dollar, gold futures broke out strongly towards the weekly target level. The United States releases the ADP jobs report on Thursday, showing private sector employment rose by a seasonally adjusted 99,000 in August, a new low since January 2021, lower many expected and months before. Today (Friday), the market will receive the US nonfarm payrolls report for August. Surveys show the number of nonfarm workers in the United States is expected to increase by a seasonally adjusted 160,000 in August, following an increase of 114,000 in July. Investors also need to closely monitor US unemployment data. Surveys show the US unemployment rate is expected to fall to 4.2% from 4.3% in August. If the unemployment rate in August is equal to or higher than July, gold prices will receive important fundamental support due to the possibility that the Fed will cut interest rates even more sharply, which could completely push up gold prices. all-time high or refresh all-time high. On the other hand, if non-farm payroll data is lower than expected or equal to the previous month, gold prices will be strongly supported by this when both employment data and unemployment rate are released at the same time. The current basic trend of gold will still maintain an uptrend when supported by most macroeconomic conditions such as geopolitical risks with many potential driving forces for price increases, supported by the path of policy changes of the Government. Fed and the weakening of the USD as well as US bond yields. The basic picture will shape the trend for quite a long time, but it will be the main trend that shapes all technical changes. Analysis of technical prospects for CITYINDEX:XAUUSD Gold is still aiming for the weekly upside price target presented to readers in Sunday's weekly edition, and as price activity is above the 0.786% Fibonacci extension it should qualify for a bullish outlook. in short term. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index is pointing up but still quite far from the overbought level, showing that there is still wide room for price growth ahead. As long as gold remains above the EMA21, within the price channel and above the 0.786% Fibonacci level, it is still trending up in the short term. More broadly, as long as gold remains within the price channel, any pullback should be considered a technical correction and not the primary trend. During the day, the rising prospect of gold prices will be noticed by the following levels. Support: 2,503 – 2,500USD Resistance: 2,531 – 2,544USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2533 - 2531⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2537 →Take Profit 1 2526 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2521 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2496 - 2498⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2492 →Take Profit 1 2503 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2508
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD corrects, recovers and stabilizesOANDA:XAUUSD recovered and stabilized after a significant correction yesterday. At one point, gold dropped sharply by about 33 US Dollars, but up to now, the recovery momentum has helped gold return to a short-term technical uptrend. The August manufacturing PMI index released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Tuesday remained below 50, a sign of economic slowdown. However, the employment component of the report improved slightly. ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 47.2 from 46.8 in August, below expectations of 47.5. After the release of the ISM report, US 10-year Treasury yields (US10Y) fell, leading to a weakening of the USD. Affected by the decline in US bond yields and the USD, gold prices recovered after hitting a low of 2,473 USD/ounce. This week will continue to be highly volatile due to the impact of a series of US economic data with the release of JOLTS job openings, ADP employment changes and non-farm payrolls (NFP) data to be released. • JOLTS U.S. job openings are expected to be 8.1 million in July, down from 8.184 million in June. • US ADP employment growth in August is expected to increase to 150,000 from 122,000 in July. • In addition, employment growth in US non-farm payrolls in August is expected to increase from 114,000 to 163,000, while the unemployment rate may decrease from 4.3% to 4.2%. If the US jobs report is weaker than expected, it will prompt market assessments of faster interest rate cuts to reappear, which will further support gold prices and continue to create pressure on investors. with USD. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, although gold had a significant correction decline in yesterday's trading session, on the daily chart, the gold price still has enough room to rise, as it receives support from the confluence area of EMA21, Fibonacci extension 0.618% and the bottom edge of the price channel, a very important area for the short-term uptrend was noticed by readers in a short comment yesterday. In the short term, if gold moves above the 0.786% Fibonacci extension level, there will be conditions for a new bullish cycle and the upside outlook for the weekly target is fixed at 2,531 – 2,544USD. As long as gold remains above the EMA21, and within the price channel, it remains technically bullish in the short term. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index is showing signs of bending and pointing up, a signal that the bullish outlook is becoming positive. During the day, gold's uptrend is noted by the same technical levels. Support: 2,471 – 2,484USD Resistance: 2,500 – 2,503USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2516 - 2514⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2520 →Take Profit 1 2509 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2504 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2459 - 2461⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2455 →Take Profit 1 2466 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2471
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Jobs data is coming, GOLD recovers around 2,500USDOANDA:XAUUSD continues to recover significantly after a sharp adjustment at the beginning of the week, fueled by lower economic data that means the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates more aggressively in the near future. On this trading day (Thursday), the market will receive the release of ADP employment data, which is expected to buck short-term trends. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released Wednesday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the number of job openings fell to 7.67 million from a downward revision. 7.91 million last month. Data were below expectations of all expected surveys. The JOLTS job vacancy report was one of the labor force indicators that U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen valued most when she was chair of the Federal Reserve. This index is also labor market data that the Fed is very interested in. Readers can refer to the fact that the Fed has recently mentioned a lot about employment issues, by most important officials. The US employment change (ADP) report, initial jobless claims and nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report will be released later this week. This trading day the market will first pay attention to the US ADP data, which will continue the important data week and provide short-term trends. US ADP employment growth in August is expected to increase to 150,000 from 122,000 in July. Additionally, U.S. nonfarm payrolls job growth in August is expected to increase from 114,000 to 163,000, while the unemployment rate could fall from 4.3% to 4.2%. If jobs data is weaker than expected, this will continue to push gold prices higher and create pressure on the USD. Employment data has been closely watched so far, but in this period it will be even more important because it is a visible "directional arrow" to evaluate the path of interest rate cuts by the Reserve. United States of America. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold remains stable with the main uptrend in the short, medium and long term. After receiving support from the key confluence area noted by readers in the previous issue at the 0.618% Fibonacci extension, EMA21 and the lower edge of the price channel, it rose to reach the recovery target level. initial price point at 2,500USD. Looking ahead, if gold manages to move above the $2,500 base price and break above the 0.786% Fibonacci extension it would qualify for a weekly upside target of $2,531 in the short term and beyond to 2,544USD. During the day, the bullish outlook for gold prices remains unchanged at notable levels and will be listed for readers as follows. Support: 2,484 – 2,471USD Resistance: 2,500 – 2,503 – 2,531USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2516 - 2514⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2520 →Take Profit 1 2509 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2504 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2459 - 2461⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2455 →Take Profit 1 2466 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2471
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
Data Week, attention to jobs gets special attention from the FedOANDA:XAUUSD fell about 1% as the USD and US Treasury bond yields increased sharply after US inflation data matched expectations over the weekend. However, as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut policy in September and geopolitical tensions still pose many risks, gold still has a lot of potential fundamental support. Gold prices closed slightly lower last week but still maintained the 2,500 USD/ounce mark. This week, investors will receive US ISM data and non-farm payrolls reports, which are expected to cause major fluctuations in the gold market. The latest data released by the US Department of Commerce showed that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.2% last month, in line with economists' forecasts. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East have boosted safe-haven demand for gold. Signs of steady buying from central banks in emerging markets also supported prices. Also notable is data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showing that as of the week of August 27, speculative net long positions in COMEX gold futures contracts increased 69 lots to 236,818 lots. Next Tuesday, the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August will be a highlight in US economic data in the early days of the week. The market expects the overall PMI to rise to 47.8 from 46.8 in July. If the index is above 50, that could directly boost the US dollar and put pressure on gold in the short term. ADP employment changes and ISM services PMI data will also be released on Wednesday and Thursday, but the market reaction to these data is likely to be immediate and short-lived. A positive surprise data will support the USD and negative data pressure the USD ahead of the widely anticipated August jobs report next Friday. US nonfarm payrolls (NFP), due out next Friday, are expected to increase by 163,000 in August after a disappointing increase of 114,000 in July. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 4.2 % from 4.3% and wage inflation, measured by changes in average hourly earnings, is expected to increase 0.3% from the previous month. NFP data next week will be the main focus, because during the Jackson Hole conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and other members also focused a lot on employment data in the near future. It is expected that next week the market will have significant turbulence when NFP data will be the center of the big storm. Economic data to watch this week Tuesday: US ISM Manufacturing PMI Wednesday: Bank of Canada monetary policy meeting, US JOLTS vacancies Thursday: ADP employment data; US ISM services PMI, US weekly initial jobless claims Friday: US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Data Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Although gold had a correction late last week, overall the daily chart of gold prices still shows a solid uptrend. With the price channel making an upward trend in the short term, as long as gold remains in the price channel and above the EMA21 moving average, it still has the potential to increase in price in the near future, with targets still being fixed at 2,531USD in the short term and more to the point of 2,544USD. Although the Relative Strength Index is pointing down, it has not yet reached the overbought level before turning down, and the slope is negligible, so this is not considered a signal of pressure and support. for this Indicator is noted at 50%. The fact that gold closed above 2,484 USD and the original price level of 2,500 USD shows a positive technical outlook, and the uptrend in the near future will be noticed again by the following price points. Support: 2,500 – 2,484USD Resistance: 2,531 – 2,544USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2551 - 2549⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2555 →Take Profit 1 2544 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2539 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2512 - 2514⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2517 →Take Profit 1 2505 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2495 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2484 - 2486⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2479 →Take Profit 1 2489 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2494 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2470 - 2472⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2467 →Take Profit 1 2475 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2494
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD accumulates with an overall upward trendOANDA:XAUUSD decreased again, after yesterday's recovery and the market in general is still accumulating with an upward trend both fundamentally and technically. At the Asian session on August 30, as of the time this article was completed, gold was trading at about 2,513USD/oz, a decrease equivalent to more than 7 dollars on the day and about 0.31%. Investors are awaiting data on US PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation measure. At 19:30 Hanoi time today (Friday), US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price data for July will be published, which may provide further assessment of the pace of rate cuts in September, including the pace of the upcoming rate cut cycle. Surveys show the US PCE price index is expected to rise 0.2% monthly in July, after rising 0.1% in June. The US PCE price index is expected to increase at an annual rate of 2.6% in July, following a 2.5% increase in June. In terms of core data, the survey shows that the US core PCE price index in July is expected to increase 0.2% month-on-month, after increasing 0.2% in June; increased at an annual rate of 2.7%, compared with a 2.6% increase the previous month. As the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, year-over-year changes in the core PCE price index have a larger impact on policymakers. From a technical perspective, the technical structure has not changed throughout the past week and readers can review this week's most recent publications below. The target for the week remains unchanged for gold to surpass its all-time high of $2,531 and refresh its new all-time target of $2,544. During the day, the technical prospect of gold price increase will be noticed again by the following price levels. Support: 2,503 – 2,500 – 2,484USD Resistance: 2,531 – 2,544USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2551 - 2549⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2555 →Take Profit 1 2544 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2539 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2482 - 2484⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2478 →Take Profit 1 2489 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2494
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Positive technical position, GOLD will pay attention to US PCEFinancial markets in general are closely watching key inflation data from the world's largest economy for clues about the scale of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in September. PCE data by The US release on Friday will also be the main data focus this week. With an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September almost certain, attention also turns to the pace of future adjustments, and how intense they will be. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market is pricing in a 65.5% chance of the US cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September and a 34.5% chance of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points. Investors are now awaiting US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data released on Friday. If Friday's PCE data is lower than expected, it could fuel expectations of a more dovish Fed, creating bullish potential for gold. And even if the PCE is higher than expected, it won't change the outlook for a Fed rate cut in September, so a higher-than-expected increase in PCE would only be temporary. limit the upward momentum of gold prices, or create short-term corrections that do not fundamentally affect the main uptrend. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold remains stable with near-term bullish conditions despite a sudden short-term correction yesterday that did not affect the technical uptrend. The structure has not changed with an uptrend in both the short, medium and long term with the short-term trend being noticed by the price channel and the 21-day moving average (EMA21). The fact that gold remains above the 0.786% Fibonacci extension is a positive factor for the bullish price target noticed by readers in the weekly publication at 2,531 USD in the short term, more than the level of 2,544 USD. The relative strength index (RSI) is pointing up but has not yet reached the overbought level, showing that there is still a bit more room for price increases. As long as gold remains within the price channel, declines should only be considered a short-term correction and a short-term buying opportunity. During the day, the technical prospect of gold price increase will be noticed again by the following price levels. Support: 2,503 – 2,500 – 2,484USD Resistance: 2,531 – 2,544USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2521 - 2519⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2525 →Take Profit 1 2514 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2509 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2482 - 2484⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2478 →Take Profit 1 2489 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2494
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD is supported, Powell is dovish, geopolitics is complicatedWith the impact of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish comments, the USD continued to be less attractive and gold returned to closing weekly above the original price of 2,500 USD, opening up a positive outlook for the following week. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Friday that it is time to adjust policy, signaling that an interest rate cut is imminent. This can be considered the strongest signal of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's interest rate cut. And of course that is enough for gold to continue to increase in price. Quoting Powell: "The time to adjust policy has come. Confidence that inflation is heading towards 2% has increased. We do not seek or welcome further cooling in the labor market. We will do so." everything possible to support the labor market and get there." New geopolitical point According to Israeli media reports, an Israeli air force control tower on Mount Melon in northern Israel was attacked by Hezbollah missiles, with one missile fired directly at the facility. Israel has carried out a series of attacks in southern Lebanon in recent times. However, hopes for an agreement faded when Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas blamed each other and failed to reach an agreement after more than 10 months of war in the Gaza Strip. Ongoing geopolitical tensions have reinforced gold's status as a safe-haven asset, and ongoing global instability has prompted investors to turn to gold to seek protection from market risks and fluctuations. As these tensions continue to increase, gold prices will receive even more support. Main basic focus Overall, the gold market is currently fully supported fundamentally, with the USD having a weaker future as the Fed's interest rate cut time approaches, and the cutting cycle will last longer. not ending soon or just a short-term adjustment. On the other hand, geopolitical developments are more complicated with prolonged wars in Ukraine - Russia and the Gaza Strip,... is also a very important factor promoting safe haven psychology, gold is known as a valuable asset. The most effective communication shelter. Overall, in a simpler way, in the long run, gold will continue to have a basic upward trend, even when the geopolitical conflict cools down, which will only create short-term profit taking. In the coming time, the Chinese Central Bank will likely reduce the amount of physical gold purchases in the second half of the year and will focus more on gold ETF purchases, and this should be considered a solid support move when China China is the world's leading gold user and hoarder along with India. Data focus this week The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will release July personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index data next Friday, which is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. Higher than expected data could be seen as a supportive move for the USD in the short term, while lower or equal data is expected to continue to support gold prices higher into the end of next week. Additionally, US GDP data on Thursday could also bring some volatility to the market. The economic calendar needs attention this week Monday: US durable goods orders Tuesday: US consumer confidence Thursday: Weekly unemployment claims, US second-quarter preliminary GDP Friday: US PCE index Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold continued to close above the $2,500 raw price after receiving support and a post-corrective recovery from the 0.618% Fibonacci extension and the $2,484 technical level acting as the closest support for short-term uptrend. The overall chart still shows that gold has all the technical conditions for an uptrend in the long, medium and short term with the long-term trend being noticed by the price channel and medium-term support from the EMA21 along with the trend. short-term from the price channel. As long as gold remains within the price channel, it still has a bullish outlook in the short term, with the weekly close above the 0.786% Fibonacci level, next week's uptrend will be directed towards $2,531 in the short term and more than 2,544USD. The level of 2,544USD will still be the target for price increases in the near future. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index is pointing up without reaching the overbought level, showing that there is still technical room for price increases to be achieved. the above mentioned goals. In the coming time, the uptrend of gold will be noticed by the following price levels. Support: 2,503 – 2,500 – 2,484USD Resistance: 2,531 – 2,544USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2548 - 2546⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2552 →Take Profit 1 2541 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2536 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2493 - 2495⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2489 →Take Profit 1 2500 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2505
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD has corrections near record highs, main trendAfter Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave a dovish signal, the market has finished pricing in an interest rate cut in September. At the same time, gold continues to be supported by safe-haven demand Due to geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Ukraine, gold prices are making certain adjustments near record highs. Last Friday, Mr. Powell supported the impending interest rate cut, saying that the continued cooling of the job market would not be positive and this is notable support that is easy to see. for gold in the current situation. Gold is a notable example where geopolitical risk aversion increases investor demand for safe-haven assets. • Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah fired rockets at each other over the weekend in one of the biggest border clashes in more than 10 months. Hezbollah fired hundreds of missiles and drones into Israel early Sunday morning, and the Israeli military said to prevent a larger attack, it used about 100 warplanes to attack. Lebanon. Top US generals said on Monday that the short-term risk of a wider war in the Middle East had diminished following a firefight between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah, according to the latest news at Reuters. • On Monday morning, explosions occurred in many places across Ukraine. Ukraine's military has warned of a large-scale Russian missile and drone attack, following a wave of early morning drone attacks. The Ukrainian military said 11 Russian TU-95 strategic bombers were flying in the air and confirmed they had launched multiple missiles. The Kyiv Post said Russia launched the largest missile attack since the Russia-Ukraine war, and thousands of people in Kiev poured into the metro station. Although gold has adjusted downward, the basic factors still show that the upward trend in prices will continue to dominate the gold market and the basic trend in the near future. With support from policy, interest rate directions as well as geopolitical risks continue to appear new. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold is experiencing bearish corrections during the Asian session today, Tuesday August 27 but the technical trend remains unchanged with conditions tilted strongly towards a bullish outlook. In the short term, as long as gold remains above the original price of $2,500 and the 0.786% Fibonacci extension, it still has bullish prospects with a short-term target of $2,531 and more to the $2,544 level. However, in case the 0.786% Fibonacci level is broken below, the impact of the technical correction could go a little deeper with a target drop to $2,484 in the short term. During the day, the upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged and notable levels are listed as follows. Support: 2,503 – 2,500 – 2,484USD Resistance: 2,531 – 2,544USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2548 - 2546⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2552 →Take Profit 1 2541 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2536 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2493 - 2495⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2489 →Take Profit 1 2500 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2505
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD could still rally, even if PCE is higher than expectedThe weakening US Dollar, dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and geopolitical developments will still be the main driving forces driving gold prices to increase in the near future fundamentally. Last Friday, Mr. Powell said “it is time to adjust policy,” sending a strong signal about cutting interest rates. Rising tensions in the Middle East are also creating momentum for gold prices to recover. The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah escalated over the weekend and concerns that the conflict could widen will be a factor in boosting gold prices. On Tuesday, White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said that the United States believes Iran is “ready” to take retaliatory actions against Israel, so the United States has increased its military deployment. in the area. The US message to Iran is not to retaliate against Israel and there is no reason to escalate the situation or provoke a regional war, but if Iran attacks Israel, the US is ready to defend Israel. According to CME's FedWatch tool, traders see a 65.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in September and about a 34.5% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut. The market is now awaiting the release of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data, the key inflation report and the Fed's preferred inflation measure, on Friday. A surprise higher-than-expected inflation data could impact Fed policy expectations, but the Fed will certainly cut interest rates in September and could cut rates again this year. . Therefore, even if data shows a return of inflation, it will not be considered a pressure on gold, and may be an opportunity for a short-term correction in gold prices, opening up opportunities for those who wait buy. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is correcting gently in early Asia today (Wednesday, August 28) to 2,517USD/oz, equivalent to a decrease of about 0.29% as of the time of writing. However, the technical structure does not have any changes with the tendency to increase both the value in the short term and on average over a number of periods. In the short term, the gold zone remains above the 0.786% Fibobacci extension level, it still develops a bullish outlook towards the target of interest when you read the weekly output at 2,531USD in the short term, more Another 2,544 USD. There aren't any negative signs for gold prices and the intraday bullish trend will be noticed by the following notable devices. Support: 2,503 – 2,500USD Resistance: 2,531 – 2,544USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2561 - 2559⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2565 →Take Profit 1 2554 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2549 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2482 - 2484⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2478 →Take Profit 1 2489 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2494
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
WTI is less affected by conflictAs tensions in the Middle East continue to emerge, oil prices may continue to be supported by short-term geopolitical risks. However, this sudden impact is gradually easing. Next, crude oil traders should still pay attention to the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision and further developments in the Middle East. Ceasefire talks in Cairo between Israel and Palestinian militia Hamas went ahead as scheduled on Sunday, showing relative calm after the exchange of fire. Israel eased security restrictions in the country on Sunday evening, hours after previously declaring a state of emergency and closing the main airport. Although the Middle East supplies about a third of the world's crude oil, oil market fundamentals have not been significantly affected by this conflict. Mainly for crude oil traders, they will still need to pay attention to the principle of supply and demand in the market "usually regulated by OPEC", and monetary policies related to USD when WTI crude oil is traded. priced in USD. Geopolitical risks and expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates next month combined to push WTI crude oil prices to a recovery late last week. In a speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave the clearest signal yet that the job of containing inflation is complete, saying “the time has come for change.” policy", reinforcing market expectations of a possible interest rate cut next month. On the daily chart, TVC:USOIL is still limited by pressure from the 21-day moving average (EMA21) and is still in a falling price channel. Although WTI crude oil has recovered significantly, current technical conditions are still more bearish than bullish, with a new bearish cycle possibly being ushered in as it falls. below the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, and the latter target is 72.32 in the short term and above that is 71.68SUSD. Meanwhile, for WTI crude oil to have enough bullish conditions, it would at least need to break above the technical level that acts as horizontal resistance at 77.58USD confluence with the upper edge of the price channel, then the short-term target is around 78.11USD and more than 79.62USD. The relative strength index (RSI) is showing signs of bending after recovering to the 50% level and this should be seen as a signal that there is still further downside ahead. During the day, the technical outlook for WTI crude oil is more bearish and notable levels are listed below. Support: 74.71 – 72.32SUSD Resistance: 75.66 – 76.59 – 77.58USD
TVC:USOIL
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [26 August - 30 August]This week, international OANDA:XAUUSD continued to increase quite strongly from 2,485 USD/oz to 2,531 USD/oz. After that, the gold price dropped to 2,470 USD/oz, then increased to 2,518 USD/oz and closed at 2,512 USD/oz. Gold prices continued to rise sharply this week because FED Chairman Powell signaled his readiness to cut interest rates in the upcoming meetings at the Jackson Hole Conference. Mr. Powell said that it is time for interest rates to be adjusted downward to support economic recovery. Although Mr. Powell did not specify a specific timeline or scale of interest rate cuts in upcoming meetings, he emphasized that FED officials are laying the foundation for looser monetary policy. In the context that the FED will certainly cut interest rates in the upcoming meeting, many experts believe that short-term gold prices may continue to increase even higher. However, it may be difficult for gold prices to avoid times when investors take profits, causing gold prices to have downward corrections. Next week, the gold market will focus on the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE) for July; GDP in the second quarter; Consumer confidence... In particular, PCE is expected to increase only 0.2%; GDP remains at 2.8% as initially forecast. If as predicted, these data will not have much impact on gold prices next week. 📌Technically, technical indicators are still showing an upward trend in gold prices in the short term. Accordingly, the important support level for gold prices next week is at 2,470 USD/oz. Meanwhile, if it exceeds 2,530 USD/oz, next week's gold price will widen its path towards the 2,590-2,600 USD/oz range. The trading plan for next week will be to sell around the 2590 mark and buy if the price drops to 2442. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2.470USD Resistance: 2.600 – 2.530USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2591 - 2589⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2595 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2441 - 2443⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2437
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading