Healthcare Sector Poised For A 7% to 15% Rally Into Early 2025My continued research to help traders shows the US Healthcare and Biotech sectors are poised for a very large rally phase into early 2025.
Particularly, XLV and XBI seem uniquely setup to rally more than 9-10% over the next 60 to 90+ days.
This video explains how I use my Adaptive Dynamic Learning Predictive Modeling system to find opportunities other people miss.
Using technology, predictive modeling, and inference engines like this is one advantage I have because I can build any type of technology or system I like - and use it on any symbol or interval I like.
Now is the time to prepare for the big moves headed into 2025. Follow my research if you want to target the biggest price swings in the markets.
Get some.
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XBI
$LLY Tightening UpNYSE:LLY Tightening Up before earnings on Wednesday. This implies that neither buyers nor sellers are stepping up prior to the report (so far at least).
I am not calling this either way. But, I think a big move is coming one way or the other. (I think it's going to be up.
This name is high on my watchlist. Lets see what happens AFTER earnings.
Small Cap Bio: MNKD - Multi-Year ConsolidationPotential multi-bagger setting up as it's coiling on the monthly/quarterly. Confirmation on a monthly close over 6.30. Ideally holds for a quarterly confirmation (End of September > 6.30)
Weekly:
Still possible it does one more fake move into the 4s before making a big move higher.
Daily:
KRRO a biotech company with earnings coming LONGKRRO is in the biotechnology space in the gene-editing realm. It is in portfolios of C. Woods .
A recent analyst gave it an upside to 100 which is very favorable given its product line and track
record with an all-time high of about $250 ( which is about 450% over current valuation)
On the one-hour time frame, it has had a great week and is breaking out over its moving
averages as well as bullish momentum on the dual TF RSI indicator. This is a stock-long trade
in the biotechnology sector which is prognosticated to be among the best of 2024. The dramatic
reversal on the chart tells me this is a long entry. Targeting $57.5 in the short term and
$75.00 for most of the position in consideration of the analyst report.
XBI biotech ETF EW count optionsSharing an intermediate view of the EW count options for XBI.
The short-term bullish range is $97-$98.
The short-term bearish target ranges are $89 - $88.50 and $87.
The bearish count, in red, drops the price to $81ish as first support. If, $81 range does not hold, $72 is the C wave target.
In the meantime, I anticipate a lot of chop in the range from $86 - $100 in the next couple months until a rate cut occurs.
As speculation of a rate cut increases, the price can begin to gravitate toward $104. When an interest rate cut is proposed, XBI will blast to the $140s but I am reserved about this outcome at this time.
VTYX- a risky biotechnology penny stock LONGVTRX is on a 120 minute chart, currently trading at 90% off its ATH and 50% above its absolute
long term support level. Price tried to cross above the long term mean VWAP 3 months ago
but was rejected. I anticipate that in time it will try to so so again. From 3.3 to a target of 9
would be a move in the neighborhood of 300%. I will take a small position long trade here.
This will be highly volatile. I will place a 25% stop loss to give VTRX room to roam for a couple
of earnings periods. Once the price rises 25% I will convert to a trailing stop loss of 25% and
make the then risk free trade low maintenance.
NVAX pushed to bottom of its channel LONGNVAX powered off its earnings and a news catalyst and is overdue now for a correction. While in
an ascending channel NVAX is now at the bottom of the channel perhaps due to the general
market moves this week. From here it can move up in the channel or breakdown and fall into
a significant correction from the uptrend since May 10th. I am bullish on NVAX and have
a prior perspective of an insider. I have realized profit six figures from my call options for
January 2025 and have a large number remaining in the trade. At this juncture, I will watch
for NVAX to move up in the channel and take a trade of shares and some call options
for 15.00 expiring in June 2025 to take advantage of long term capital gains on the options.
The FDA is currently reviewing some COVID vaccine data which is particularly relevant to
NVAX. The volume profile has a shelf at 14.25 which will be my stop loss on the shares.
The options will have a 20% stop loss. Considering the level from which NVAX has fallen over
a period of some period there is great potential in my opinion.
Opening (IRA): XBI July 19th 83 Monied Covered Call... for an 80.91 debit.
Comments: After taking off my August 88 monied for a small profit, re-upping in shorter duration, but with a better break even than what I had with the August 88. Selling the -75 delta call against a one lot of stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense.
My general goal here is to not hang out in these positions for lengthy periods of time, but to take profit, re-evaluate the market for where the juice is at, and re-up if the underlying remains "sexy" from a premium-selling standpoint. XBI's 30-day IV isn't stellar at 30.9%, but it's toward the top of my IV screener, with miners and the silver ETF hogging three spots: TQQQ (51.8%); GDXJ (44.0%); GDX (38.7%); SLV (32.3%); SMH (31.6%); EWZ (31.1%); XBI (30.9%).
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 80.91
Max Profit: 2.09
ROC at Max: 2.58%
ROC at 50% Max: 1.29%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max and/or roll out the short call aspect if it reaches 50% max or there is a test of my downside break even.
ZURA a med tech microcap with catalysts LONGZURA a penny stock has catalysts- an FDA action is soon upcoming and an insider bought a lot
more shares. The 120-minute chart shows a solid trend up since earnings March 28th. This
pre-revenue company beat earnings with less cash burn than expected. Another earnings
report is about a month away. Price has settled to the support of the longest EMA line.
I see an opportunity here for a long trade toward the earnings in a month. The longer black RSI
line above the 50 level while the shorter green line shows the oversold undervalued condition
for an entry.
Opening (IRA): XBI June 21st 82 Short Put... for a 1.90 credit.
Comments: Selling a put here, since the resulting cost basis if assigned shares would be lower than the cost basis of the position I've currently got on now. The full position is now a June 21st 82/88 covered strangle (i.e., short put, stock, short call).
Will look to take profit at 50% max.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even/Cost Basis in Shares if Assigned: 80.10
ROC at Max as a Function of Buying Power Effect: 2.37%
ROC at 50% Max as a Function of Buying Power Effect: 1.19%
Delta/Theta: 23.36/2.42
XBI the ETF for Biotechnology LONGBiotechnology is expected to be a hot subsector this year as healthcare recovered further from
the COVID pandemic anything from startups to big pharma- from vaccines to new drugs for
diabetes, liver disease and obesity. This is shown on a weekly chart to show the long term trend
with XBI pivoting to bullish back in early November. I add long positions when I see a dip
on the 3-4hr chart. My targets are the fib retracement expectation at 116 confluent with
the first upper VWAP band line and then the 135-138 zone underneath the second upper line
shown in thin red on the chart. This ETF smooths out the volatility characteristic of some
of the smaller biotechnology firms making it safer albeit with lesser rewards expectations.
Positions in NVAX and MRNA are having a good start to the week and will reflect in a small
way in this ETF which has broad constituent stocks within its portfolio.
ALPN and VRTX may merge surge of bullish momentum LONGAlpine is a biotech stock that had an earnings report beating estimates two weeks ago. It
is now reaching for all-time highs. That said, it is burning cash just slowing down the burn.
Both revenue and earnings showed remarkable improvement as compared with the previous
quarter. The bullish momentum of price and volume is obvious on the weeky chart with
the print of a massive bullish engulfing candle. Another earnings report is
due in 4 weeks. In the meanwhile, the news catalyst is VRTX and ALPN may be merging.
www.tradingview.com /
I will take a risky long trade here with a stop loss at 50 and a profit first target
of 80 and the second at 90.
HIMS a gender focused health care company LONGHIMS had an excellent earnings report for a small cap company; it is consumer driven quality
focused and helps the customer feel good about him/her- self. It does not have any gender
orientation agenda nor any obvious political inclinations. On the 120 minute chart, it started
a moving averge convergence about a week before earnings. The Greeny TTM squeeze indicator
did its thing as the post-earnings action began. I see this stock as a good long to hold into
the next earnings and perhaps through it. HIMS is now at its all time high. There is no chart
horizontal resistance overhead and traders will note that. I see the bullish momentum
continuing perhaps with some healthy ( no pun intended) corrections while underway.
Healthcare is considered to be a hot sector for 2024 this small cap seems to be warmed up.
Opening (IRA): XBI May 17th 88 Monied Covered Call... for an 85.94 debit.
Comments: 32.5% 30-Day IV. Buying a one lot and selling a -75 delta call against to emulate a 25 short put, take advantage of call side IV skew, and to have built-in defense via the short call.
Metrics:
Cost Basis/Break Even/Buying Power Effect: 85.94
Delta/Theta: 28.5/4.31
Max Profit: 2.06 ($206)
ROC at Max: 2.40%
ROC at 50% Max: 1.20%
Will generally look to take profit on the entire setup (stock + short call) as a unit at 50% max; look to roll the short call for duration it hit 50% max at any time to reduce cost basis further; add short put, assuming I can get in at a strike with a lower break even than what I currently have on.
LCTX gets upgrade and is technically setup LONGLCTX on the weekly chart here has been falling since late 2021 and found support at the bottom
of the high volume area of the volume profile and ranged between it and the POC line for the
past 18 months. The is a high end clinically active biotechnology firm using stem cells to
produce therapeutic cell lines . ( One experiment using the mammary glands of cows imbedded
with cells that make insulin to make a weak milk solution containing insulin and then
concentrate it for cheap insulin is quite remarkable- ) How about some special milk for
to have with your sugar buzz) see more in the here link en.wikipedia.org
Anyway, price rose into triple confluence- the anchored mean VWAP, the POC line, the upper
boundary of the high volume area. A new analysis targets 7. Smart money is paying attention.
My smart money is paying a lot of attention. I understand the science and the market that
LCTX could reach in due time. I am not an insider but close. Enough said. My target is the
tweezer tops of 2022 at 2.5 and so 65-70% upside in the near to intermediate term and after
that maybe the analysis will revise the target up or down I am guessing the former.
IRTC Med Tech Device Manufacturer at Fair Value LONGIRTC on the weekly chart shows a symmetrical triangle with compression of price into the
apex confluent with the 5 year anchored mean VWAP. I am very familiar with the product line
including often lifesaving technology such as AEDs. The company has had weak earnings reports
but price has managed to so from undervalued to fair value. I will add to my position here with
20% more. Targets of 140 and 205 are tool drawn onto the chart from pivots of the past.
Medical technology is reportedly a hot sector for 2024.
ABT has good news synchronously with price action dip LONG
ABT on the one-hour chart is in a sideways diverging channel with Bollinger Bands overlaid
and now compressing. In Europe, the new implantable cardiac monitor has tentative approval
producing a growth narrative. Relative volumes and volatility have decreased heading into the
pivot. ABT is in what is projected to be one of the hottest sectors this year. It pays dividends
consistently. I am taking a long trade here. Targets are $120 and $130. A predictive algo
validates the idea in its forecast
VINC Biotech Penny Stock Followup Swing TradesVINC was a penny stock and is now in the near penny category as this biotech stock has had
a great run in the past 10 days. On the 30 minute chart, 225 shares are bought at low prices
and 125 shares are sold for profit with 100 shares still running as the momentum slows.
Overall, the trades where profitable averaging 12% daily in an average trade of 4.5 days.
Time and effort in the trade were minimal as the price action was monitored by alerts
and notifications as to price to moving average and moving average to moving average crosses
as well as dips and peaks of RSI under 40 or over 70 to notify for potential buys or sells
in this zig-zag strategy which intended to optimize profit and minimize time and effort
in trading.
VINC a speculative biotech penny stock LONGVINC went from 1.5 to 3.0 in less than three hours with 12X relative volume in the afternoon
after a month of a slow climb from a news release that really did not amount to much. Insiders
are 25% of the shareholders and that may be the story here. This could be manipulation at its
finest. I have to wonder how many insiders bought how many shares and when the rug pull.
This is a high tight bull flag pattern which typically results in another leg higher of the same
magnitude. I suppose that is in clean trading without any manipulation.
If this takes off again it might be worth trying with a small position so long as the trader
can hit a button to close the full position when the sudden reversal occurs. I will trade
this long with a group of moving averages to make alerts for crossing lines and slopes
levelling out and see if it can go anywhere.
VTYX- Buy the Pullback after a massive Bullish Surge LONGVTYX is an illustrative case in the trend is your friend. VTTX warmed up on Frbruary 20th and
went parabolic on the next day and then faded while the moving averages and VWAP lines
caught up. This is a buyable dip. It has now printed a couple of engulfing bullish candles. VTYX
did less than a full 0.5 retracement as a sign of strength. I will take a long trade here targeting
16% upside to the top pivot of the recent price action. If the price can reach the target I will
take half screening for higher-than-normal volatility. At present the volatility has mildly popped
over the running mean telling me the continuation is on the ready. The plus here is earnings
will report on March 24th so there is one month for traders to run the price up on this
stock in that anticipation. Options are avaiable for call contracts expiring March 15th.