TRIPLE TOPXBI UPTHRUST CAUGHT A LOT OF PEOPLE WITH THE GUARD DOWN BUT BEARISH DIVERGENCE WAS A WARNING FROM THE START..
Everything happen so fast when xbit started to plunge after IDMC recommends ending late-stage trial of colorectal cancer treatment and this event that happened at 2:40pm on friday overturn $xbi at the same moment and now is going back to 400 EMA $67..
STOCHASTICS OVERBOUGHT AND HEIKI ASHI BEARISH CONFIRMATION + MOMENTUM GOING INTO SELLING MODE +MACD CROSSOVER
BIG INTEREST PLAY THE 300 , 400 EMA ... WATCH SMALLER TIMEFRAME FOR A FASTER CONFIRMATION BUT IN MY OPINION IS NOT GOING TO HOLD...
XBI
Biotech ETF Double Top Drop To Technical SupportThe SPDR S&P Biotech ETF began its departure from the bearish double top around the beginning of May. Typically the stock drops toward its last strong support level, and most times drops below that as well. Currently, the stock has been trending down, but is yet to make it to this shared support at 66.30. With the gains for the ETF on June 1, it could be an excellent time to setup a short position.
When we take a look at technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 51.3469. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is neutral. The ETF could move either direction but may not be prone to volatile swings.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently 0.4073. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The TSI is pointing down and the 50 day moving average for the TSI has been on top and parallel for at least two weeks. This is an indicator the ETF could continue its overall downtrend.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.9448 and the negative is at 0.9331. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. These indicators have been in a tight channel and are both below 1. The first indicator to cross above 1 could be the prevailing direction in which the ETF will move.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 28.7305 and D value is 35.2426. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is currently trending down, but has at least five days until it could reach oversold territory. This will be the key indicator to watch on when the potential bottom of the downward movement is reached.
Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop at least 4% over the next 19 trading days if not sooner.
XBI vs SPY: a tight relationship as a bull/bear indicatorSince VIX has been updating the lowest values ever and Gold value has been growing alongside the markets and sometimes even correlated with the US Dollar, traders were trying to find a valid bull-bear indicator that could show an approximate top of the historical rally on Equities.
In my opinion, DXY is a very valid indicator but there are more instruments that show a high level of correlation with the market and can be followed. One of them is a highly speculative Biotech index.
Notice, while the market is running in a perfect bull trend, Biotech are in a correction after a massive dump in 2015-2016. In my opinion, Biotech has topped back in 2015 and a new massive decline can be closely monitored to determine the whole market´s top.
The specilative instruments are normally the first to fall as their growth is commonly built by hot money that rush into a same small door once any sort of a real danger appear. Obviously, one cannot fully relay on the speculators only as we all know how quick they can be on restoring their positions. But if a joint analysis will show a real bear at some point of time, speculative instruments decline should confirm a change in the trend.
XBI Subminuette LookAt this stage I don't see XBI shooting out of the channel. Very likely down move by Tuesday. There is a possible quick retest of the highs before the down move. If we see above average volume on a retest of highs (and unable to make a new one), that would also be a nice short setup. GL
XBI weekly - Long term outlookHere's a quick look at XBI on the weekly and what I see. I'll be shorting everytime it hits the top of the trendline. I'll be shorting every divergence and overbought signals on the 60 & 240.
There's a lot of hype with the bio sector since its 2016 lows, which is exactly what a B wave does. It creates hope, only to have it taken away. This is a multi year outlook. There's no way of knowing where the wave B top will be. This corrective structure can last another 6 months, year, maybe more! We're not "there" yet for the big bio short, but 90% of the time, a setup like this (especially on a weekly chart) is super bearish. Which is why I will always take the sell at the top of the trendline moving forward. GL
Biotech's 40% Bear Market is OverThere is one useful way to determine when a trend is over and that is using a 50% "speedline" of a move.
The decline from $400 in $IBB, the IShares Nasdaq Biotechnology Index Fund back in July 2015 and then tumbled 40% to $240 on February 9th, 2016 and later retested $240 on June 27, 2016.
The mid-point of that decline is $320 and a line drawn from the top at $400 down through the $320 level on June 27th gives you a line that is now down below $275 and that line has been violated to the upside, retested and is turning back up again and THIS TIME it is with President Trump pushing for faster "time to market" in exchange for lower drug prices. Will the deal go through and will it make a difference? Time will tell.
For now, the Yellen-Bubble-popping bear market has been dramatic since August 2015 as it tumbled a whopping 40%.
But there might be signs of life here in Biotech Bubble land, even with fears of price gouging still lingering over these stocks .
For now: Average in over the next 2-3 months and see if this story pans out.
Tim
12:31AM EST February 2, 2017 280.42 last $IBB. Other symbols for Biotech $FBT, $XBI, $BBH
JUNO rounding.JPM conference presentation this week. If it's good, or if $KITE is good, this will move.
OPENING: XBI JAN 20TH 51.67/61/61/70 IRON FLYThere isn't much premium out there to be sold in index or sector exchange traded funds, but this is one of them ... .
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 46%
Max Profit: $518/contract
Max Loss: $415/contract
Break Evens: 55.82/66.18
Notes: I'll shoot to take profit at 25% of max ... .